VARIATIONS IN TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL

IN SANGAMNER TALUKA OF
AHMEDNAGAR DISTRICT, MAHARASHTRA

Suchita Awasthi & Poonam Kamble

Watershed Organisation Trust

2nd Floor, The Forum Apartment
Padmavati Corner
Pune Satara Road
Pune 411 009
Website: www.wotr.org; Email: info@wotr.org

ABSTRACT

Due to their biophysical characteristics, drylands ecosystems are most vulnerable the climate
risks. Climate variability has serious implications on major livelihoods of the region i.e.
agriculture and livestock. In this paper, attempts have been made to study variations in
temperature and rainfall in Sangamner Taluka of Maharashtra, India. Data at annual, seasonal
and monthly time scales for the period of 1969-2009 (Temperature) and 1971-2010 (Rainfall)
were examined. Trends in temperature, rainfall and rainy days have been assessed by Nonparametric tests (Mann-Kendall or Pre Whitened Mann-Kendall test for trend detection and
Theil and Sen's Slope for magnitude of trend), Moving average and descriptive statistics.

KEY WORDS:
Temperature and Rainfall variations, Climate Change, Mann-Kendall Test, Standard
Precipitation Index, Dry Spells

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INTRODUCTION:
India being an agrarian economy, where
70 percent of the population depends on
agriculture, is highly vulnerable to the
impacts of climate risks. Temperature rise,
precipitation
variation,
increased
frequency of extreme events and sea level
rise have serious implications on
agriculture and related activities. Climate
scenarios using global and regional
circulation models1 indicate warming from
0.5 degree C to 1.5 degree C. Indian
monsoon is projected to increase by 8 to
18 percent. The semi-arid regions of
western India are expected to receive
higher than normal rainfall as temperature
rises. 2 Increased incidences of heat spells
and abrupt changes in the monsoon could
lead to severe droughts. Seasonal water
scarcity and high temperatures will have
serious repercussions on agriculture and
food security of the country. According to
IPCC, current global warming rate is 0.2
degree C per decade. Analysis for the
period 1901-2009 done by IMD suggests
that annual mean temperature for the
country has risen by 0.56 degree C and the
warming trend is mainly due to rise in
maximum temperature however, post
1990s, minimum temperature is rising
steadily.3
The country is divided into 15 agro
climatic
zones
based
on
agrometeorological factors. Soil and climatic
characteristics affect crops, any variation
in agro-meteorological factors has
implications on agriculture. Increase in
temperature has negative impacts on the
crop cycle, inducing early flowering, and
shortening the grain fill period and thus
reducing the yield.4A 0.50 1.5 degree C
rise in temperature will reduce the wheat
yield by 0.45 tons/ha. A 1.5 degree C rise
in temperature and 2 mm increase in
precipitation will reduce rice yield by 3-15
percent. 5 A large part of the state of
Maharashtra is covered by drylands and
therefore vulnerable to climate change.

Report by the World Bank suggests 20

30 percent increase in the rainfall in
Maharashtra accompanied by higher
temperatures of about 2.4 3.8 degree C.6
According to a study by The Energy and
Resources Institute, increased temperature
and altered precipitation patterns would
affect the agricultural productivity and
hydrological systems. Increased frequency
of extreme events poses threat to water
resources, agriculture, forests etc.7
Any fluctuation in climatic variables
affects the crop growth stages thereby
degrading the yield stability and quality.
Temperature and rainfall are the two most
important climatic parameters that effect
the growth, development and yield of the
crops.
All crops have threshold
temperatures above which the formation of
reproductive sinks, such as seeds and
fruits, are adversely affected. For example,
the harvestable seeds of groundnut are
formed following flowering and fruiting
periods. Between 36 C and 42 degree C,
the percentage fruit set fell from 50% of
flowers to zero and the decline in rate was
linear illustrating the sharpness of response
of crop plants to temperatures between 30
and 35 degree C during the flowering and
fruiting periods. Similarly, maize exhibits
reduced pollen viability for temperatures
above 36 degree C8.
The growth of crops and their yields are
dependent on the monsoon rain, even the
sowing of crop for winter (Rabi) season is
also determined by the soil moisture
retained from the later parts of the
monsoon. While excess rainfall may affect
the standing crop and therefore the crop
yields, Rainfall during flowering period
washes the pollens. Heavy rains may
submerge the growing crops in the early
stages and may cause lodging in the later
stages of crop growth. For instance, low
soil moisture due to poor precipitation in
the pre-sowing period adversely affects
seed germination resulting in reduced plant
population. The poor precipitation during

growth period results in stunted plant

growth. Heavy rainfall during early growth
period causes submersion of plants.9
Even though studies have been conducted
on long term temperature and rainfall data,
these were mainly focused at a macro level
(country 10 , 11 or state or district 12 , 13 ).
Advisories released on the basis of district
level analysis of rainfall and temperature
would not benefit the farmers so it is
always advisable to assess the climate
variability at micro levels. District level
analysis may or may not overlap with the
analysis done at taluka level or even micro
level like the village therefore it is

important to understand the micro climate

of a region. A micro-level analysis will
help in developing location specific crop
plans and other climate risk management
measures.
The present study is in context of the
climate
change
adaptation
project
implemented by Watershed Organisation
Trust (WOTR) in the districts of
Aurangabad and Ahmednagar in the state
of Maharashtra, India. The objective of the
paper is to examine the variations in
temperature and rainfall patterns in
Sangamner taluka of Ahmednagar district.

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METHODOLOGY:
Area of study
The area under study is Sangamner taluka which falls in the rain shadow belt of Maharashtra.
It lies in the agro climatic zone, Western Plateau and hills region (zone 9), and Western
Maharashtra Scarcity zone (Agro climatic sub zone).The zone is semi-arid region
characterized by frequent droughts and acute water shortage that affect the agriculture and
livestock severely. Kharif (June to September) and Rabi (October to January) are major
cropping seasons but some farmers also take summer crops (February to May) depending on
water availability.

Figure 1: Study area: Sangamner Taluka in Ahmednagar District,

Maharashtra (Source: WOTR)
Average annual rainfall of Sangamner is 560.69 mm, mean minimum temperature is 19.2
degree C and mean maximum temperature is 32.9 degree C (30 years average) The average
monthly temperature and rainfall of the region is shown in Figure 2 and Figure 3.The graph
shows the warmest month of the year is May with an average maximum temperature of 36.5
degree C and average minimum temperature of 24.27 degree C. A secondary rise in
temperature occurs post monsoon (September and October).
During monsoon (June-September) rainfall varies between 77.9 mm and 690mm (excluding
extreme events) while the normal rainfall during monsoon for Sangamner is 423.26 mm.
June, July, August, September and October are the major rainy months. Distribution of
monthly average rainfall is bimodal. The primary peak occurs in September with average
rainfall 164.20 mm and the secondary peak in June with average rainfall 112.90 mm.

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Mean Monthly Temperature of Sangamner

Temperature in degree Celsius

40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

Mean Maximum Temperature

Mean Minimum temperature

Figure 2: Mean maximum and mean minimum temperature of Sangamner

Average Monthly Rainfall of Sangamner

160

Rainfall in mm

140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0

Figure 3: Mean monthly rainfall distribution of Sangamner

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Data and Analysis

Daily maximum and minimum temperature for the period 1969 2009 and rainfall for the
period 1971-2010 (gridded data 0.5 X 0.5 for rainfall and 1 X 1 for temperature
prepared by India Meteorological department (IMD),Pune) have been analyzed.
Moving point averages (3 points) have been prepared to obtain seasonal variations in
temperature and rainfall in Sangamner. Mann-Kendall test is used to assess the trend of the
time series 14 ,15 , 16 , Pre whitened Mann-Kendall test has been used where high values of
autocorrelation exists. The presence of auto correlation alters the variance of the estimate of
Mann-Kendall test and increases the probability of rejecting the no-trend hypothesis; it may
cause trends to be detected that would not be found significant if the series were
independent.17 Theil and Sens slope estimation test has been used to calculate the magnitude
of the trend.18
Annual rainfall variation, intensity of rainfall, and number of rainy days have been worked
out using IMD specifications. Standardized precipitation Index has been used to find out
meteorological drought years. IMD criterion have been used to identify the dry spells (See
Annexure)
Seasonal variations of temperature and Rainfall for summer (February May), Monsoon
(June September) and winter (October January) have also been studied.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS:

Temperature patterns in Sangamner taluka
Long term trends have been analyzed which show statistically insignificant (at 5% level of
significance) rise (less than one degree C) in annual mean minimum and mean maximum
temperature. However the seasonal trends show significant increase in the monsoon months
whereas the winter and summer months did not show significant rise. Table 1 summarizes the
results of the test.
The results indicate that the minimum temperature during the monsoon has risen by 0.02
degree C while maximum temperature showed an increase of 0.003 degree C. (Figure 4 and
Figure 5) The maximum and minimum temperature were analysed for the monsoon months
i.e June, July, August and September where September shows statistically significant increase
in minimum and maximum temperatures. The months of June and July also indicate
increasing trends though statistically insignificant. A decreasing trend has been observed in
the month of August. (Figure 6, Figure 7, Figure 8, Figure 9)

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Table 1: Summary of the Mann-Kendall analysis and Theil and Sens Median Slope for
Temperature

Variable

Trend

Annual Mean minimum temperature

Annual Mean maximum temperature
Mean maximum temperature during
monsoon
Mean minimum temperature during
monsoon
Mean maximum temperature during summer
Mean minimum temperature during summer
Mean maximum temperature during winter
Mean minimum temperature during Winter
Mean Maximum Temperature - September
Mean Minimum Temperature - September

Significance at 0.05
level
Increasing Insignificant
Increasing Insignificant
Increasing Insignificant

Slope

Increasing Significant

0.019

Increasing
Increasing
Increasing
Increasing
Increasing
Increasing

0.007
0.003
0.01
0.016
0.13
0.014

Insignificant
Insignificant
Insignificant
Insignificant
Significant
Significant

0.004
0.007
0.003

Mean Minimum Temperature During Monsoon

Temperature in Degree Celsius

24.00
y = 0.0194x + 22.172
R = 0.3322
23.50

23.00

22.50

22.00

2009

2007

2005

2003

2001

1999

1997

1995

1993

1991

1989

1987

1985

1983

1981

1979

1977

1975

1973

1971

1969

21.50

Figure 4: Variations in mean minimum temperature during monsoon from 1969-2009

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32.80
32.50
32.20
31.90
31.60
31.30
31.00
30.70
30.40
30.10
29.80
29.50

y = 0.0004x + 31.222
R = 4E-05

1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

Temperature in degree Celsius

Mean Maximum Temperature During Monsoon

Figure 5: Variations in mean maximum temperature during monsoon from 1969-2009

Temperature in degree Celsius

Maximum and Minimum Temperature in June

24.60
24.40

34.00
y = 0.0129x + 32.151
R = 0.0654

y = 0.007x + 23.724
R = 0.0802

33.50

24.20
33.00

24.00
23.80

32.50

23.60

32.00

23.40
31.50

23.20
23.00

31.00

Minimum Temperature

Maximum Temperature

Figure 6: Temperature variation observed in June

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Maximum and Minimum temperature in July

Temperature in degree Celsius

23.40
23.20

30.00
y = 0.0139x + 22.458
R = 0.448

y = 0.0044x + 29.217
R = 0.0349

29.80
29.60

23.00

29.40

22.80

29.20
29.00

22.60

28.80
22.40

28.60

22.20

28.40

Minimum Temperature

Maximum Temperature

Linear ( Minimum Temperature)

Linear ( Maximum Temperature)

Figure 7: Temperature variation observed in July

Maximum and Minimum temperature in August

Temperature in degree Celsius

23.00
22.80

29.60
y = 0.0068x + 28.45529.40
R = 0.0514
29.20

y = 0.0063x + 21.846
R = 0.0817

22.60

29.00

22.40

28.80

22.20

28.60
28.40

22.00

28.20
21.80

28.00

21.60

27.80

Minimum Temperature

Maximum Temperature

Linear ( Minimum Temperature)

Linear ( Maximum Temperature)

Figure 8: Temperature variation observed in August

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Maximum and Minimum Temperature in September

32.00
31.80
31.60
31.40
31.20
31.00
30.80
30.60
30.40
30.20
30.00
29.80
29.60
29.40
29.20
29.00

Temperature in degree Celsius

22.60
22.40

y = 0.0066x + 29.969
R = 0.0446

y = 0.017x + 21.214
R = 0.2632

22.20
22.00
21.80
21.60
21.40
21.20
21.00
20.80

Minimum Temperature

Maximum Temperature

Figure 9: Temperature variation in September

Rainfall patterns in Sangamner taluka

The annual rainfall and rainy days have been analyzed to understand the long term trends in
the Sangamner Taluka. Annual rainfall varies between 209.1 mm to 861.7 mm (excluding
extreme events) with normal rainfall of 560.69 mm (30 years average).
Table 2 summarizes the results of trend detection and magnitude of variation observed. It
indicates significant increasing trend in annual and Monsoon rainfall and rainy days. Annual
rainfall and rainy days show statistically significant increasing trend by 5.42 mm and 2 days
respectively. (Figure 10)
Table 2: Summary of Mann Kendall and Theil and Sen's slope test for Rainfall
Variable
Rainfall-Annual
Rainy Days - Annual
Rainfall - Monsoon
Rainy Days - Monsoon
Rainfall- Winter
Rainy Days- Winter
Rainfall- Summer
Rainy Days -Summer
Rainfall- August
Rainy Days -August

Trend
Increasing
Increasing
Increasing
Increasing
Increasing
Increasing
Decreasing
Decreasing
Increasing
Increasing

Significance at 5%
significant
significant
significant
significant
Insignificant
Insignificant
Insignificant
Insignificant
Significant
Significant

Watershed Organisation Trust, (WOTR)

Slope
5.42
2
4.89
2
0.15
0.07
00
00
2.11
0.75

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Annual rainfall
3000
2750
2500
2250

y = 26.148x + 202.24
R = 0.2096

Rainfall in mm

2000
1750
1500
1250
1000
750
500
250
0

Figure 10: Annual rainfall variation in Sangamner from 1971-2010

The annual rainfall deviation, examined using the IMD criterion (Figure 11) indicates that
there are about 37.5 % (15 years) of Excess Rainfall, 37.5 % (15 Years) of Normal Rainfall
and 25 % (10 years) of Deficit Rainfall events.

Percentage deviation

Percentage deviation of annual rainfall from mean

y = 0.6476x - 10.436
R = 0.0484

80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60

1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

-80

Figure 11: Percentage deviation of annual rainfall from normal

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The Intensity of Rainfall was also examined using the IMD criterion. Annual frequency of
rather heavy rain day shows statistically significant increasing trend at 5 % significance
level. (Figure 12). Very light rain, Light rain, Moderate rain, Heavy rain, Very heavy rain,
extremely heavy rain days events show increasing trend though statistically insignificant. In
the last decade, frequency of very light rain and light rain days has increased.
The rainfall data has also been analyzed for the three major seasons, monsoon, winter and
summer. In the Monsoon season rainfall and rainy days showed a significant increasing trend
(Figure 13) with a rise of 4.86 mm and 2 days respectively. There was no statistically
significant increase in rainfall in the winter and summer seasons.
Month wise analysis of rainfall and rain days show statistically significant increasing trend in
the month of August 2.15 mm and one day/mm (Figure 14). Rainfall and rainy days in June,
July, September, October and December shows increasing trend but statistically insignificant
and November shows a statistically insignificant decreasing trend.

Frequency of Rather Heavy Rain events

y = 0.128x + 0.8269
R = 0.1753

20
18
16

Rainy Days

14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0

Figure 12: Annual frequency of rather heavy rainfall events in Sangamner during 1971-2010

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Rainfall in mm

Moving Average for Monsoon rainfall

3000
2750
2500
2250
2000
1750
1500
1250
1000
750
500
250
0

y = 26.435x + 64.86
R = 0.209

Figure 13: Variation in Monsoon rainfall from 1970-2010 in Sangamner

Rainy Days in August

250
225
200

y = 2.0839x - 2.8658
R = 0.1599

Rainy Days

175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0

Figure 14: Number of rainy days during the month of August from 1970-2010 in Sangamner

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Drought in Sangamner taluka

Study area experiences frequent droughts which affect the livelihoods and therefore the rural
economy. One of the sectors where the immediate impact of drought is felt is agriculture and
livestock. It results in crop loss of different magnitude depending on their geographic
incidence, intensity and duration. Droughts not only affect the food production at the farm
level but also the national economy and the overall food security as well.19
The World Meteorological Organization has indicated that the Standardized Precipitation
Index (SPI) is the best suitable indicator for meteorological droughts. Meteorological
droughts occur when the reduction in rainfall for a specified period (day, month, season or
year) is below a specified amount usually defined as some proportion of the long-term
average.
The SPI has been calculated for the annual rainfall series. 60 percent of the years show
normal rainfall and 7 years have been identified as drought years.
24 years were observed to be near normal, 3 moderately dry and 4 severely dry. 2005 and
2006 were years with extreme rainfall events. Frequency of occurrence of wet years has been
observed to be more than that of the dry years. (Figure 15)

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Table 3: Drought years in India and Sangamner

Drought Years in Sangamner (7) 1972,1986,1987,1994,1995,1999,2003
1972, 1974, 1979, 1982, 1986, 1987,2002, 2004, 200920

Drought Years in India (9)

Distribution of dry, normal and wet years using SPI

2.0
1.5
1.0

0.0

-0.5

1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

SPI

0.5

-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
Serverely Dry

Moderate Dry

Near Normal

Moderate Wet

Very Vet

Figure 15: Standard Precipitation Index for Sangamner

Dry Spells in the Monsoon

Dry spell is an interval between two wet spells of at least 25mm of rain in a period of 7 days
with 1 mm or more on any five of these seven days.21
The analysis of dry spells is important in understanding the variability of rainfall during
monsoon and also it is helpful for crop planning to minimize the risk of dry spell during the
cropping stages. Breaks of monsoon for 7-10 days may not be a serious concern but more
than 15 days break is critical for crops as it may lead to soil moisture stress and therefore
reduction in the yield.22 Information on occurrence of critical dry spells and its duration helps
in deciding sowing dates and in planning and management of different dry land crop for
achieving optimum yields. Period and time of occurrence of number of critical dry spells
affect the yield of green gram and soybean crop to the considerable extent, followed by
Sorghum crop. The duration of critical dry spell is found to be 16 days for sorghum crop and
12 days for soybean and green gram crop.23
In the current dataset, during monsoons the average length of dry spells has been found to be
72 days and the frequency of dry spells i.e. number of dry spells in a year, show statistically
insignificant increasing trend by 0.09 days. The length of dry spell (i.e. number of days in a
dry spell) shows statistically significant decreasing trend by 2 days.
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CONCLUSION:
In the present study, long term trends for temperature show statistically insignificant rise in
annual temperatures but minimum temperature during monsoon show an increasing trend that
is statistically significant at 0.05 level. Study of monthly variations revealed rise in the
temperatures in the month of September.
Rainfall and Rainy days have also increased in past 4 decades. Annual and Monsoon rainfall
have been observed to increase, where the month of August shows a statistically significant
increasing trend. Any variability in monsoon season will have implications on agricultural
activities as the season overlaps with Kharif, a major cropping season for the country.
The variations of temperature and rainfall during monsoons may have impacts on the various
growth stages of the crops. Though the study shows that the length of dry spells has
decreased, exposure to short periods of high temperatures have serious implications on the
crop growth. Changing weather conditions may lead to increase in pest infestations,
pathogenic infections of the crops etc. which may lead to huge crop losses in the region.
In the face of climate variability it is therefore very important to understand the local climate
trends for the proper management of natural resources and livelihoods. Macro level studies
may or may not be relevant at village level and therefore the advisories generated may not
benefit the locals.

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Annexure Table: IMD criterion used in the study

IMD Criterias
Rainy Day

Annual Rainfall
variation

Description
A day with at least 2.5 mm rain
Normal : Year that received +&-19 percent of mean annual
rainfall
Excess : Year that received more than 19 percent of mean annual
rainfall
Deficit : Year that received less than 19 percent of the mean
annual rainfall
Very light rain : 0.1-2.4 mm
Light rain : 2.5 -7.5 mm
Moderate rain : 7.6 -35.5 mm
Rather Heavy : 35.6-64.4 mm

Intensity of Rainfall

Heavy rain : 64.5-124.4mm

Very heavy rain : 124.5-244.4mm

Standard Precipitation
Index

Extremely heavy rain : >244.5mm

Extremely wet : >2.0
Very wet : 1.5 1.99
Moderately wet : 1.0 1.49
Near normal : 0.99 +0.99
Moderately dry : -1.0 -1.49
Severely dry : -1.5 -1.99
Extremely dry : < 2.0

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