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SeekingLight #1581

Member Since Jul 2006


3,257 Posts

Since Habeeb mentioned GBPJPY can be quite a meanie, I wanted to show the
last two trades I took on it. Turns out the first one was an excellent (perhaps
A?) trade, but I closed it early and the second one happened today and once
again I wussed out too soon.
There is a very, very important lesson here: LET YOUR PROFITS RUN. :S
Can't emphasize this enough for these cross-pairs...
Trail a stop under the daily and let that catch it for example...
A good place for a stop once it passed my 0.0 fib line would have been just
below that TBH that price formed there at 228.98, I can see that now in
hindsight...but we're always smarter then
The trick is that these Yen crosses basically really only know one direction as
long as the BOJ rates are low and steady, and that is up.
So taking trades on these pairs after getting bullish pins or IB breaks seems to
be the way to go. Shorting seems fatal in almost all cases.

habeeb
Member Since Aug 2005
Novice

#1587
768 Posts

Thought I'd throw a chart to start the day off. Pin on Nasdaq100. Not at an
extreme high, but off the trendline of the recent uptrend.

Member Since Aug 2005

habeeb

#1588

768 Posts

Huge BeOB on cable. Might see the Daily Pivot tested. Looks like we're going to
have one of those crazy weeks.

habeeb
Novice

Member Since Aug 2005

#1600
768 Posts

Originally Posted by goodthings


Habeeb I see the daily weekly and monthly pivots on your charts Do they
come into play similar to the fibs? A while back I looked at the day pivots how
the gbpusd responded to them over a 3 or 4 month time and I never picked
up any significance. What's your experience?
Pivot Points are like S/R points. For some reason, price is attracted to these
points. Probably because the big boys use them, or probably because it's the
most used system out there.
The way I understand it, if price opens above the pivot point, you look to buy,
and if price closes below, you look to sell. But I've noticed that price usually
tests the pivot first before taking off ... well, not always.
Maybe someone that uses a Pivot based system can shed some more light on
this.

bundyraider
Member Since Feb 2006
'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
2,169 Posts

Quote:

Originally Posted by habeeb


Pivot Points are like S/R points. For some reason, price is attracted to these
points. Probably because the big boys use them, or probably because it's the
most used system out there.
The way I understand it, if price opens above the pivot point, you look to buy,
and if price closes below, you look to sell. But I've noticed that price usually
tests the pivot first before taking off ... well, not always.
Maybe someone that uses a Pivot based system can shed some more light on
this.
The safest way to trade pivots seems to be retests.
GoodThings,
At the bottom of this post is a chart, showing the power of these pivot levels. This
is for yesterdays price action on Cable and is based on the pivot been calculated
at 22:00GMT.
Some days pivots just won't work like this, but NO WAY is the below price action
just a fluke. It follows the levels and reacts almost to the letter.
LOOKING AT THE CHART:
Beginning of the day --- After a slow drifting Asian sesion that had seen Cable fail
to break up through the main Pivot we come to...
Point "1" --- where the Euro and London sessions kick off.
There is a Bullish Outside Candle that, for the fist time that day, ignores the pivot
level and begins a possible bullish move. This is followed by a large Bull Candle.
It would have been nice if we'd had a return to the pivot for a safer entry, but in
this case it just didn't happen. Things happened relatively quick. If I was watching
at the time I'd have bought at the close of that large bull candle, just from
experience in knowing it was a good solid move.
Moving on though...
Point "2" --- would be a good take profit level.
The strength of pivots and there ability to act as decisive reversal levels makes
them a perfect spot to take some profit off of the table. The Solid Lines in my
chart are the classic pivot levels calculated from pivot formulas. The dotted lines
are mid-levels (often named M1-M2-M3-M4. ...but beyond the scope of what I'm
showing you here.)
-- Notice how the preceding candle peaked through, but closed at the pivot,
indicating sellers got on board thinking there would be a reversal (or "pivot" of
price) here. We have our retracement to the pivot, which is respected, showing
possible support for a continued move up. The next bar failed to break the
previous high and as a consequence we got ourselves a Double Bar High waiting
to be broken. ....A long trade addition could be taken at the break of this DBH (as
a bonus. And the break came quickly too!) ...The next profit target being....
Point "3" --- Where we take some more profit again and we keep an eye on the
price action to decide our next move.
A few bars after point "3" there is a swing low "pin" bar (or hammer) that coincides with a mid-level. When I've traded moves like this I have trailed my stops

against support areas like that . A few pips below the pin would have been good
(Once price had moved up away from the pin again) The pair has already moved
through two pivot levels, I already consider that a good move. Anything else is a
bonus. Another tactic is to trail just behind the previous pivot level (previous solid
line). ...that would have kept us in the trade for this day.
I'd be out at the break below this point , though.
Point "4" --- I've marked point 4 to illustrate another good entry oppurtunity as
described by Habeeb. ...Waiting for a retrace to the pivot before entering. I've
learnt to get in later at a worse price and play the break of the peak rather than
risk the return being an actual reversal. ...For now . Still learning. I wouldn't have
been awake to take that trade and it's the wrong time of day anyway.
Don't trade like this. I only know a handful of setups so far myself that I trade.
You have to study them for a long time. There's a lot of the "Language" or
technique to learn before attempting this. I intend to get a better understanding
over time, but I'd rather continue on with larger time frame charts and techniques
(Playing daaily pins etc), and using pivots mainly for fine tuning profit points etc.
Hope this helps...
, Bundy

Member Since Feb 2006

bundyraider
'Try-hard' extraordinaire...

2,169 Posts

Originally Posted by gnspdr33


great job on how pivot points apply, but i couldn't help but notice you seem to
have an indicator for metatrader to plot your pivot points. i am able to do so
on v-trader but not metatrader. do you mind sharing.
Pivot Indicator as per above post.
Make sure you grab the version that's a few posts into the thread (V1-41)
And, if you can, direct any questions regarding the indicator to that particular
thread or PM me.

bundyraider
Member Since Feb 2006
'Try-hard' extraordinaire...

#1632
2,169 Posts

As MoneyBags pointed out, there is a Pin on the daily chart for GBP/JPY.
Here's the chart with a few of my observations...
The pair's been happy to make the 61.8 Fib expansion (of the yellow A-B-C move)
and the daily pin looks to set us up for a short trade.
The dark green dotted line is the 38.2% ret. level of the Pin bar itself and the pair
seems to be finding resistance at this moment in that exact area.
First target I'll be looking for here is the purple line. A confluence of the 38.2% fib
and resistance come support from a previous peak.
EDIT: By the way, there is MACD divergance on the 4 hour.

bundyraider
Member Since Feb 2006
'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
2,169 Posts

GBP/JPY 15 Min chart.


We've topped out at the same level 3 times now.... a confluence of the daily pivot
and the 38.2% retracement area. I've entered on the close of that marked pin. 1
Lot for now.
I'll see how the 1 hour and 4 hour charts look later on before adding my second
lot.

mike w
Member Since Jul 2006
Member

#1691
4,088 Posts

Hi there, quick question and i figured you guys would know best about this.
Should a pin bar that is created because of a news rally be considered void?
Because if so there is one on the GBP/USD.

mbqb11
Member Since Aug 2006
Resident Elmer Fudd
5,653 Posts

Hey, a pin bar is a pin bar. Its where it is and what time of day that makes it
more important to me. I personally dont take new trades around this time of
day because everything thins out or just trickles real slow. I want some *umph*
behind my trades lol

bundyraider
Member Since Feb 2006
'Try-hard' extraordinaire...

#1710
2,169 Posts

We have a Triple Bar High with a lower close on the 1 hour.


Edit: With a little bit of creative license, this was at the 50% retracement.

Waiting for a retracement to enter. (Somewhere around Purple horizontal line)


...This might mean missing the trade. ...But you miss any chance of a loss too, so
who cares. LOL
Maybe on this time frame and so few pips risked you'd just enter on the close??
,Bundy
Edit: All those equal highs give as a strong tight stop we can use. A few pips
above (plus spread)

bundyraider
Member Since Feb 2006
'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
2,169 Posts

We hit the entry price at 1.6027 (Purple Line)


Stop was @ 1.6041.
...Stop looks like it's not very close, but that's just the time frame we're on.
First profit target I've set up as 1.6007. Only a 23% line.
The rest will depend on price action.

mbqb11
Resident Elmer Fudd

Member Since Aug 2006

#1714
5,653 Posts

Originally Posted by manya42


Hello Everyone.
Can somebody tell how to get those pivots lines on the chart?
Thanks In advance & HAPPY HOLIDAYS to everybody in this wonderful thread .
http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...t=pivot+points

james16
Member Since Feb 2005
THANK YOU MERLIN

#1729
2,608 Posts

divergence is a great tool. one of the best in my opinion. the problem is you
dont know when price will comply. use support and resistance and/or price
action to help you determine when and where price may finally go along with
what the divergence is telling you. this like anything else can really help you
WHEN you have practiced it enough to feel comfortable pulling the trigger. many
wealthy commodity traders dollar cost average when they see strong divergence
on long term charts knowing that sooner or later price will follow. i dont suggest
that but using s/r and price action can really help determine when to get in.

bundyraider
Member Since Feb 2006
'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
2,169 Posts

Check the chart out below.


If we are using the standard MACD settings (12,26,9) we are finding
the Moving Average Convergance Divergance between a 12 period EMA (light
blue line on price chart) and a 26 period EMA (orange line). MACD is just making
it easier to see the difference between those EMAs (the 9 setting is a moving
average of the that difference).
What am I getting at?
(example using uptrend divergence)
MACD Divergance tells us that the shorter period price action (12 EMA) isn't
moving away from the longer period price action (26 EMA) as quickly as it did
during the LAST peak. Which is significant isn't it?
So whats that got to do with the price of eggs in china?
To find that exact same divergence on the Daily chart that you did in the 4 hour
chart you would have to devide those MACD EMAs by 6 (6 x 4 =24 , of course)
On that Daily chart try MACD (2,4,3) ...the 3 is just a faster setting to suit the
smaller EMAs , it's irrelevant to what I'm showing.

When looking for divergence on your different time frames you aren't supposed to
be looking for the same information. You should be trying to find what's
happening in the larger picture for instance.

Weekly GBPCHF
WELL WELL, look at this ...We have divergence forming on the weekly chart!
Couldn't have found a better example there GT. You've made it easy choosing
this pair.

habeeb
Member Since Aug 2005
Novice

#1743
768 Posts

4hr Pins on all the majors. Looks like we've got ourselves a double bottom on
cable.

habeeb
Member Since Aug 2005
Novice

#1799
768 Posts

I thought I'd start 2007off with a Pin Bar.:


4hr Pin on fiber, followed by an inside bar. I entered on the 1hr chart after the
DBHLC formed. Target is the closing of the gap around the Monthly Pivot area.

Here's the 1hr chart.

mbqb11
Resident Elmer Fudd

#1890

Member Since Aug 2006

5,658 Posts

heres the usd/jpy 1 hour


waiting for a break

Member Since Aug 2006

mbqb11

#1908

Resident Elmer Fudd

Originally Posted by vlazaf


Short taken off the pb 61.8 retrace.
Entry is not a problem, maximising profits is.
T1 is 1st scale out.
Anyone advise where the next level should be please?

5,658 Posts

Hey great entry. TP is one of those things you have to decide on what works for you
best. Some like to TP all at once, others at different levels. On your chart I may
have made T1 where price is sitting now, you can tell we have support there. T2
could be where your T1 is. Again, determing TP is a personal thing, and is the
hardest part of forex imo.
I know this wasn't the best answer, but I don't think there is a concrete one.
Michael
edit* here is what i mean. You can see I have awesome MSpaint skills! This is just
based on this chart you posted. Seeing the bigger picture may change things.

Panjan

#1922

I'm learning this price action and hope someone can help me to confirm
this chart.
Is this the Pin Bar?
If it is, where shall place my order?

mbqb11
Member Since Aug 2006
Resident Elmer Fudd
5,658 Posts

that would be a neutral bar(shows indecision)

Gateway
I have read the thread thru once and parts 3 times. But could not figure out why
that is different then a pin bar. I appreciate the answer.

mbqb11
Resident Elmer Fudd

The difference is where the open and close are located. For that example we
would want the open towards the top of the bar and the close above the open
towards the top of the bar. Instead the open and close are nearly identical and in
the middle of the bar. If we think about it in just very basic terms it was a fight of
buyers and sellers and neither one so we ended up with a draw in the middle.
Ok think about a neutral bar simply as the opening and closing both ending up in
the middle or near middle of the bar. The most obvious is when the open and
close are identical in the middle giving us what looks like a + sign. An ideal pin
bar has its open and close within the previous bar and is located at a swing high
or low. The close should always be lower then the open(if looking for a short,
opposite for a long) and both should be located near the bottom part of the bar.

mbqb11
Member Since Aug 2006
Resident Elmer Fudd

#2314
5,661 Posts

Here was a nice quick one for 120+

jotty
Member

Member Since Jan 2006


208 Posts

nice trade, but i'll take a break of the double bottom instead of the pin
much safer unless you feel like babysitting the trade

mbqb11
Member Since Aug 2006
Resident Elmer Fudd
5,661 Posts

I don't babysit any of my trades on the 4hr charts and even the 1 hour charts.
THere are a few who trade with me outside of the charts and they know this. If
you babysit your trades too much emotion comes into play. Remove the emotion
was what has allowed me to make pips!

mbqb11
Member Since Aug 2006
Resident Elmer Fudd
5,661 Posts

well support held and was a good exit for the short, now we have 4 hr pin I am in
on the break.

mbqb11
Member Since Aug 2006
Resident Elmer Fudd

#2336
5,661 Posts

Also here is another trade I made closed my full position now though.
Aud/USD TBL(Three Bar Low)

raczekfx
Member Since Oct 2005
Commercial Member

#2365
2,196 Posts

Pin break overnight and retesting low of the first eye was a nice long signal.

SeekingLight
Charts + PA > *

Member Since Jul 2006


3,257 Posts

Originally Posted by raczekfx


Pin break overnight and retesting low of the first eye was a nice long signal.
Hi Raczekfx, always nice to see your posts
Speaking of the devil, ey?
Please don't forget that there's two conflicting setups - the BEOB and the PB.
You could also view the pin break as a move back to get sellers for the BEOB.
Please be careful...I've conflicting setups for my wavecount as well, but not that
I'm any good at that... :/
Like I posted above, if the s/r zones and retrace areas go this could well continue
on down....EJ made a 1H bearish Pin altho that's a lower TF....
Just saying that GJ alone would already have moved out 80 from the .618 entry,
so never hurts to secure the position
Waiting to see since both EURUSD and GBPUSD also made bullish 4h candles,
even though USDCHF did not. (IB there)

mbqb11
Member Since Aug 2006
Resident Elmer Fudd

#2384
5,662 Posts

thought I would post my gbp/usd trade.


This 1 hr pin then formed a 4hr pin. Taking profit from the 1 hour or you can hold
with the 4 hr.

imbiber
Member

Member Since Jun 2006

#2444

Originally Posted by parlenk


Hi all,
I took a long on us-jy based on this chart.
Will history repeat itself?

418 Posts

james16
Member Since Feb 2005
THANK YOU MERLIN

#2474
2,608 Posts

Price action analysis is not a system its a method to determine near term price
movement. if you practice and get good at identifying the very best set ups you
certainly can trade with nothing else but combining them with simple support
and resistance and other tools can help refine entries. i challenge all of you to
open a demo account just for trading good price set ups blindly. if you can get
to where you can build an account with nothing on your chart but price with no
other supporting tools what do you think will happen when you do add them. its
about refining and targeting the best possible entry. if you can get good at it
with nothing but price on your chart the rest is easy.

Originally Posted by sp123


Hi James, on 07-28-05, 1:34pm, you said:
price action in and of itself is a great tool and yes a lot of times they work in
and of themselves. but what we really want is multiple signs of a probable
winning trade. price action combined with fib ret, monthly and weekly pivot
levels, divergence, confluence etc. i will be dissapointed if and when someone
goes hey that dblhc did not work and they did not combine other tools to
confirm. jim
on 08-12-05, 4:51pm, you said:

YOU DO NOT NEED ANYTHING BUT A KNOWLEDGE OF PRICE ACTION TO BE A


SUCCESFUL TRADER. this is something i am going to present in the course
(someday), intelligently add in extra ingredients, like your own proven trading
system and you have a real shot at success. stay tuned. jim
Can you please explain this seeming contradiction.
Thanx, sp123
__________________

SeekingLight #2481
Member Since Jul 2006
3,257 Posts

This chart pretty much shows the ambiguity of the market and the same state I
am in currently.
We were rising so nicely in a price channel, fell out of it, tried to scramble and
recover, then got the usual "bounce from the former s now turned r channel
bottom" which in this case ALSO coincided with a descending trendline.
Until either the PB lows or the monthly high / descending TL is broken, I have
pretty much no clue about what's going to happen next...any takers?
EJ and GJ are as contradictory, too, GJ hit a TL and is pausing, EJ is at the pin bar
eye level but ALSO on a lower timeframe (4h) made a BEOB and seems to be
heavy as well...
Who ken thar yen?
(My best guess is even tho monthly is still pointing up, weekly has gone sideways
and we made a high above 121.55 we couldn't sustain. We may have just swung
back up to get some decent sellers and if the buyers get fed up enough and the
sellers persist, then we should get a dip back to the sub 120s...no?)

rsq955
Member Since May 2006
Member
146 Posts

I know that this is not much help, but I think that I'm going to stick with my old
fall back position of......staying out. I'm going to wait and see....

CFII
Member

#2585

Member Since May 2006


50 Posts

Does it matter if a bullish pin bar has a lower close than its open price or vice
versa?

islandtrader
Member Since Apr 2006
Member
275 Posts

In my short experience it doesn't matter, but I like it when the open and close of
the PIN are close together and in the upper/lower third of the bar.
Both PINs on this chart have a lower close, and worked well.

mbqb11
Resident Elmer Fudd

#2602

monthly has broken anyone else coming on for the ride

59fender

man, I don't know. nevertrade that long of a time frame, probably have a heart
attack

mbqb11 Resident Elmer Fudd


Well adjust your position size , then patience patience
someone can at least demo it so I am not so lonely right?!

59fender
can I at least wait for a pull back I'm having chest pains allready!

mbqb11 Resident Elmer Fudd


hmm I felt more relaxed after I put the trade on, is that odd?!
Well getting in on a retrace of the pin would have been nicely here, but I don't
play retraces much anymore. Nothing wrong with getting in on a lower
timeframe, I just like to stick to whatever timeframe I am on. Probably cause I
am lazy, and it is less work

mbqb11 Resident Elmer Fudd


Originally Posted by Westie
hey mike i Just jumped in for the ride on this aud/cad,
have you personally played monthly much,
and are you playing this with ful faith, that is, placing stop above the high?
or are you placing stop according to daily on this one?
After seeing your aud/kiwi play, I'm thinking just place stop above high
and go for the huge win, but i'd definately appreciate your take on this
particular trade and timeframe.
Yep you got it stop above the high, I just try to picture them all the same. A good
pinbar is a good pinbar. If the upper left said daily H4 weekly monthly. No
difference to me. Rest is up to the market and our position size and risk prevents
it from being anything but just another trade.

mbqb11
Resident Elmer Fudd

#2636

5,668 Posts

Originally Posted by xrbor


Hi,
Can you recommend some free stuff on bar chart terms and different patterns?
It would be good to learn the basics if i want to switch... Concerning candles, it
helps me a lot to recognize these candle patterns...
Again thanks very much, xrbor.
Well as far as free stuff goes, this thread is FILLED with free bar chart names and
examples. If you mean something that shows a bar and then a candlestick
pattern that matches that, it really is a matter of just looking at the two. Once
you understand how to read a price bar
(http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/barchart.asp ), you will quickly get the
hang of transfering that over to a candlestick bar. If there is something more
specific you need lemme know. If you are going through this thread and find a bar
pattern you can't seem to make out on candles let me know and I can post a
chart.

edit** Here is the same chart with a few price bars labeled. One is the bar chart
and the other is the candlestick chart. This is just to give you an idea. There are
much more price bars talekd about in this thread. Thought I would just throw this
up.;

mbqb11
Resident Elmer Fudd

#2666

Here is a trade I closed today at the TL cross and 61.8 confluence. I held the
position since the first pin bar. So look what started this run, and what is probably
going to end this run. Pin bar at the bottom of the channel and a new pin bar at
the top of the channel. Just have to be patient.

I dont have profit targets nor do I move my stops to b/e. For this trade I I moved
my stops twice, once to under the DBLHC then again under the inside bar. Finally
I closed at the confluence near the top. Ya you gotta watch profits go up and
down, but thats the only way to stick out these longer runs(that I have found and
been successful with).
I never scale out of winning positions and Yes I will take a break of the pin short
today.

mbqb11
Resident Elmer Fudd

#2683

Originally Posted by mike w


hey mike , i have a quick question for ya. What exactly do you mean by traffic?
Is it jsut because its coming off of news? or because there is only one short bar
before it? Thanx.
Hey mike,

When I say traffic I am referring to the bars location. Pin bars are best at swing
high and lows. If you look at the pinbar that formed it isnt at a swing low. Right
next to it we have a bunch of bars (visually looks jumbled(traffic)). Although this
pin may work just fine, I would rather wait for a stronger one. Take for instance,
The pin on the daily of the euro from today. IT was at a swing high(not to
mention other confluence). But if you just visually look at the two, they are very
different. Like you said these bars do fail, and they have a higher success rate at
certain places(being swing high and lows with areas of confluence).
Hope this helps, I had a few beers so forgive the pretty colors

shamstec
Member

#2900

hi everyone
if someone cd help i'd appreciate that so much
please give comment about IB's 1 and 2
how to know if IB is bullish or bearish ??
thank everyone

mbqb11

Resident Elmer Fudd

Hi Sham,
IBs are not bearish, or bullish bars. Theya re a sign of consolidation. The premise
behind them is that after a period of consolidation we have a break out. They are
usually played with a straddle(ie. a break of the high or low gets us into the
market). You can however play a break only one way or the other if your bias is
that way.
For example if an IB is sitting on a support line. Your bias would be long(since we
have support underneath).
Also may I suggest to use the daily/weekly/monthly. I see a lot of people playing
IBs are the 4hour, and to be honest it takes a lot more finesse as you have a lot
more falses on the 4hr and under.

shamstec
Member
pound/yen

#2914

hi all
should i consider sell even if 2 lows have 1 pip difference
or
wait to see if left eye on weekly will be broken or not
the pb on weekly looks unreliable

Member Since Dec 2006


50 Posts

mbqb11
Member Since Aug 2006
Resident Elmer Fudd
5,671 Posts

A 1 pip difference on a TBL/TBH is ok IMO on the 4hr timeframes. But


remember this isnt as strong as a TBL/TBH on the weekly. Soemtimes you gotta
be nimble with these breaks, ast hey only give a few points. The pound weekly
pin is not a good looking pin on your broker feed. If you check out InterbankFX
data feed it is small but better looking then yours. Just play them how u see
them. If something doesn't look right, wait for better signals.

the_wizard
Member Since Jan 2007
Member

#2944
776 Posts

dbhlc on the 4 hour charts


formed a tbh - strong resistance
but a stop would have to go just over this area...looks highly likely that anyone
taking this signal would get stopped out...

mbqb11 Resident Elmer Fudd


Next bar never broke though, so those who are more conservative, your trades
wouldnt have been triggered.

the_wizard
can i clarify what you mean?
do you mean to say conservative traders wouldn't have had a long entry triggered
because the bar failed to break through?
i thought the best way to play dbhlc was to take the trade SHORT at the lower
close...in this case most traders would be in with a stop just above the dbhlc which is now a tbhlc..

mbqb11 Resident Elmer Fudd


If you are looking to short a DBHLC the conservative play is to wait for the break
low of the DBHLC to go short. Taking a short on the close is more aggressive. If I
understand your question correctly.

the_wizard
aha - i see! thank-you, i am fairly new to this - slowly working my way through
the forum but still way back on page 23...only another 175 to go then...ah well.
its only just gone 10pm...

mbqb11 Resident Elmer Fudd


hehe ahh i remember when I was going through this thread for the first time. Boy
was that an eye opening experience. It was like putting on glasses for the first
time as a kid. Suddenly we can see!

Pip Squeak

Member

#2986

Member Since Mar 2007


7 Posts

My first question pertains to contradicting PA on smaller time frames. I mainly


use the daily chart to enter on the Right eye of a pin formation - at a high/low,
or a 'rising w' (small retrace of said high/low), with Fib confluence, and always
WITH the trend. Sometimes, while waiting for the Daily pin's Right eye to fully
form, the 3 hour (oanda), 4 hour, or 1 hour charts have solid counter pin
formations. Add to this the daily's reflection of a slightly sinking Right eye (on
an uptrend), and I now have cause for concern. So I exercise the greater part of
valor, and use discresion - I run. I take a small loss, usually no more than 10 40 dollars and wait for another entry. In almost every case, I wake up the next
morning to find the most beautiful pin, just smugly sitting there safely out of
reach, mocking me .
Once a good pin has formed (with a S.L. of less than 2% of my Net worth), I
usually make 150 - 200 pips before cashing in. However, I have come to realize
that entering a pin formation is more art then science. So my question is
this: after entering on the Right eye of a daily chart's pin formation - with the
support of the 1, & 4 hour charts, 12 hours later you begin to receive conflicting
PA in the form of a solid counter pin formation on the 4 hour chart, what would
you do? Do you ride it out, or fall back and wait for better opportunities.
Second question: I'm looking for an honest retail broker w/ good execution.
What brokers do guys/gals use? (I reallize that this thread may not be the best
place for this question, but I'd rather hear from individuals who use the
same/similar strategy as myself.)

mbqb11 Resident Elmer Fudd


I'll throw in my 2 cents. I think if you are trading off the daily charts, exit off the
daily charts. If you let every 1 hour 2 hour 4 hour pin bar the oppoosite way
spook you out of a position, it gets hard to hold on. If those counter pins are very
good trades, you could also take them the other way while holding your other
position thinking more longer term. Of course you also have the option of
dropping down timeframes to find a better exit. So if you have been in a daily
trade, and are looking to exit, droppin gdown to the 4 hour can be helpful.
You stated it perfectly when talking about price action. It really is more an "art".
You have to figure out the type of trader you are, and what your strengths are
and play of those. I will say this, that for me I used to exit way to early because
these lower time frame opposing PA bars would spook me. I have now learned to
be more patient and go with the flow(you have to give profits to gain profits). It
has made me more patient and disciplined.
Continue to play around with it on demo till you find your comfort zone, no dobut
you will.
As for broker, I would check out Oanda, due to their position granularity. For a
longer term trade they should be fine, or FXSOL.

moneybags
Member Since Jul 2006
Pipping Tom
486 Posts

Mike's advice above is right on the money.


I've recently made some changes to my trading ways and have started to let

profits run. (it's the only way...)


I used to have the problem that you guys talked about, to get spooked out of
trades or take profit too soon.
But the bottom line is, if you have confidence in your system (which in this case
is James16 PA) and you only go for the best setups, there's no reason to be
skeptical about your trade regardless what you see in lower timeframes. And the
main point is that the higher the timeframe, the stronger the signal IMO. Weekly
> Daily > H4 > H1 (I wouldn't even bother on the hourly charts to start)
I took a few weekly trades a couple of weeks ago, and they went against me in
a hurry. A couple of them were looking pretty ugly especially on the Daily chart.
But I trusted my entries and stuck with them for hundreds of pips of profit in
the end. (and I still exited too soon. could've made a good chunk more )
It's pretty hard to control your emotions. It takes practice to get a little desensitized to the whole process. (I'm still working on it....)
Member Since Aug 2006

mbqb11

5,671 Posts

Resident Elmer Fudd

Originally Posted by Lamdun


You know, with all this talk about pins, it almost seems like that's all the J16
group is. In the private group, are other formations discussed? Is the pin bar
still the most discussed setup? Or is that just what James is allowed to share
with the public?
All the PA bars are discussed inside. I think the pinbar just gets the most
attention because in the right place, they are DEADLY

mbqb11
Member Since Aug 2006
Resident Elmer Fudd

#3006
5,671 Posts

this is what the weekly chart is looking like,


still working off a pinbar on support

james16
Member Since Feb 2005
THANK YOU MERLIN

#3016
2,608 Posts

Let me share something with you wiz. When I read a post like yours I literally
feel physically ill. Many people have been where your at but very few have been
there as many times as I have. I literally get flashbacks and if my wife should
happen to see me soon after reading one like yours she doesn't even have to
ask, she knows. She knows it's not me anymore because I never risk enough to
do that to myself but she knows I just read one. She has seen the look of
despair and disappointment on my face many times and I get that same look
when I read a post like yours. People say that I have a way of relating, that I
seem like a real person to them. I have often pondered those statements. I
guess the reason it's true is because I will probably spend the rest of the
evening wondering what I could do to help you and I guess the reason I will do
that is because I've been there and I know how damn much it hurts. E-mail me
as I have a question for you.
jim

Originally Posted by the_wizard


Mike,
Thanks for this. I'll have a good read.
I've had a huge loss today and have come very close to blowing another
account so I am hurting a lot at the moment.
I just want to say something to those that may be new to this forum and
maybe still new to trading. I feel that James has helped me so much that I
want to give something back. I am not a good trader yet but for what it's
worth I will tell you what I have learnt. It is all I can give right now.

I left work five months ago with the intention of trading for a living. Looking
back now, I had no plan and was severely undercapitalised but I was
stubborn and believed I could do it.
I managed to last just over two months before wiping out.
Going back to the charts, I came up with a strategy - a forex trend following
system involving MA retracement that seemed in my backtesting to have
incredible results. I borrowed a 1,000 off someone in my family to trade it
whilst still needing desperately to pay the bills.
I took each signal blindly. Some looked frankly awful but I found they still
made me money. After a few weeks I had made several hundred pounds but
the signals weren't coming so fast. I could get a week without one so I moved
into commodities. I thought surely a good system should hold up in all
markets. Well, I got badly whipsawed and as I started to lose I started to take
more risk - as the money dwindled away I was getting worried. One trade I
took 25% risk and lost over 350 in 40 minutes. Well, soon enough, I came
back down to below my starting capital. Now I became really afraid. In a
moment of madness, I got in a position based on my system, over-leveraged
myself again and then panicked when it went against me. I then kept moving
my stop away. I couldn't face taking another loser after so many in a row but
also I couldn't take the pain of losing so much money and being forced to
admit that it was the wrong time for me to embark on my trading career and
I needed to go back to work.
Well, I was short the US indexes. My original exit point would have left me
with around 700 in my account. After being finally stopped out today
because I had no margin, I am left with just over 200.
Looking back at the trades I did, I realise that I would take a position based
on a basic signal but would have nothing else to confirm it.
Now I have Jim's words going round and round in my head: "Succesful
traders hide in the bushes with a rifle - they don't stand in the open with a
shotgun".
As it would happen, I was reading an interview from Market Wizards last night
which I would like to quote you:
"Although the cheetah is the fastest animal in the world and can catch any
animal on the plains, it will wait until it is absolutely sure it can catch it's
prey. It may hide in the bush for a week, waiting for just the right moment. It
will wait for a baby antelope, and not just any baby antelope, but preferably
also one that is sick or lame. Only then, when there is no chance it can lose
its prey, does it attack. That, to me, is the epitome of professional trading" Mark Weinstein
What does this mean to me in light of this forum? It means, a dblhc doesn't
mean get long - it means: check your daily and weekly fibs, check your trend
lines, check your pivot points. Try and time the entry nicely - don't be afraid
to let the trade pass you by because you waited. There will be other
opportunities.
I think that with this realisation and a good break from this, I may be,
hopefully, on the verge of turning a corner.
I'm sorry this post has been so long - it's been cathartic but just incase I've
bored you all here is a chart for everyone.
Simple PA led to good chances in this market - I wish I had seen them as
they occured!
Good luck and thanks for reading.
Tom

the_wizard

Member Since Jan 2007


Member

#3063
776 Posts

hello fellow traders,


nice pin bar developing here on GBP/EUR.
over here in london, the daily candle is just about an hour away from finishing.
it touches two areas of fib confluence - the 61 and the 38. I got these levels by
fibbing not right from the top (23rd Jan) but on the retracements upwards on
the 6 Feb and 23rd Feb.
the price has also retreated back below the daily pivot which is the firm black
line just beneath the two fib levels.
what makes this really interesting for me is that the daily pivot was previous
support in mid december - see that dbl on the left?
well, now that's resistance.
and finally, todays pin is just above the 365ema so if I put a short order beneath
the low of the session today, then it would be trading beneath the 365.
i like the look of this - it's my first trade using price action. I'm going to give it a
go and see if i get filled.
wish me luck
tom

mbqb11
Member Since Aug 2006
Resident Elmer Fudd
5,673 Posts

looking good on your chart,


The_wizard
Member Since Jan 2007
Member
776 Posts

hello everyone,
what a fall! (see chart above for the PA reason I took this)
this is my first trade using the techniques i learnt in this forum.
i just closed this out for 50 pips profit.
i am so happy right now and i have jim to thank.
thank you so much. you've made my day. honestly you have.

tom

james16
Member Since Feb 2005
THANK YOU MERLIN

#3069
2,608 Posts

tips on divergence: always be cautious of divergence in a strong trending


market. anytime your learning something new take some time and walk thru the
past on a chart to notice anamolies. divergence can be outstanding when
combined with the other stuff we learn but as i said it can burn you bad in a real
strong trend. a quick look at the past on your charts will reveal this. it will also
reveal some great early warnings of great trades if its used in conjunction with
the other stuff.
Originally Posted by the_wizard
it's too early to call it right now but there is another pin bar forming on the

nzd/usd daily.
this pair is certainly looking overextended now but i am cautious since i know
some of you pro's got burnt with those two previous back to back pins...
this time i can also see what looks like bearish divergence on the rsi.
i've never traded off divergence before - hell, i've never really even looked for
it until i came here - this is the first time i've seen it properly.
i could be reading it wrong but it looks like the rsi has failed to make a higher
high from the previous peak on 26 feb.
i'll post a chart later if the pin holds.
tom

the_wizard
Member Since Jan 2007
Member
776 Posts

well, here we are. a couple of hours from the close and still looking good.
i'm not strong on negative divergence...that is it that i can see on my rsi, right?
i'm in doubt because i am using onanda also - same setting on rsi but it's hasn't
made a lower high like this...instead it's higher and looking healthy...
i was considering shorting but put off by two things:
a) the traders that got blown out the water shorting the second bar back when it
broke the pin lower.
b) the major resistance at 72.00 - i checked back and corrections off this level
are often sharp and very profitable if caught but the price movement around
this area is highly erratic and could be brutal.
(see next chart)
good luck

check out that resistance!

the_wizard
Member Since Jan 2007
Member
776 Posts

update: nzd broke as expected. for those new to this, lower line on chart was
entry (5 pips below pin) and upper line is stop (5 pips plus spread above pin). for
me this was a risk of 60 pips.
on the one hour, this had a beautiful setup for fine tuning entry...it broke the low
of the pin, then came back up to form the right eye, then broke back below the
pin. i was almost tempted to double up

mbqb11
Member Since Aug 2006
Resident Elmer Fudd
5,673 Posts

here was the 4hr pin bar entry on your nzd/usd

mbqb11
Resident Elmer Fudd

Member Since Aug 2006

#3122
5,673 Posts

Originally Posted by the_wizard


hi seeking. thanks for your response. i appreciate the feedback because i am
still learning this pa. i guess i have found that it works so well when you take
the good setups that i start trying to "see" pin bars everywhere.
still, i would like to respond to what you said about that pin bar being a
"gamble." you are right - the pins did not close within the previous bars range
and the proportions are off, in the sense that the body (open-close) makes up
more than 1/3 of the candle.
however, since i am now on demo i am taking these signals and i have found
that they are working so far - these two i posted that were not technically
correct pins (coffee and usd/mxn) were just the most profitable. i have a
suggestion for why this might be.
i guess if you were just entering on a retracement of the pin OR just on the
close of the pin as some traders do, then it would be a total gamble but i am
always waiting until the next session and entering a few ticks under the pin.
now what these patterns show me is that regardless of the length of the
body, they have met some resistance, fib level etc and pulled sharply away
from it which leaves a long wick. however, since the body is fairly large you
have less chance of entering on a false signal e.g. the price dips below the pin
by a few ticks and then comes back up - which seems to be what happened to
a lot of people who took the kiwi trade recently. in the trades i have shown,
the price has to have a siginificant fall (because the body is longer), meaning

that it is more likely to be "reliable" in my opinion.


i may be completely wrong and would value others comment on this. i know
that this is not the way james taught it - thats not really debatable but i
wonder if there is any merit to what i am saying. it certainly seems to be
working for me so far but that is the beauty of demo...if it stops then i can
drop it
once again, thanks for your feedback. i love this pa stuff.
cheers,
tom
p.s. i'm about page 150 on this thread so far...can't wait to get onto the pf
stuff when i've finished...trying to follow it all in order...free thread first and
i'm reading as fast as my eyes can go..
hey tom,
I think you will find as you trade all these pinbars and such, that it is going to
pay just wait for the best pinbars. This is because you will see so many bar
setups, that you can be picky. The one seeking is talking about isn't technically
a pinbar, but it was in a great spot,with the flip of S/R(hence the reason the
signal worked regardless of the bar) So i think the important point is that you
are looking for PA bars, and where they are located in relation to whats going
on. After all it is more important where these bars are then the actual bars
themselves.
keep it up
Mike

mbqb11
Resident Elmer Fudd

Member Since Aug 2006

#3227
5,673 Posts

Originally Posted by steveshutts


Here is a question regarding risk/reward for those who are taking profits
consistently. I did ask something along these lines before but would like to
raise the issue again.
I suppose it boils down to whether you are an all in all out trader, or you scale
out etc. I like to scale about half my position at a pre-determined target area
so i can move my stop to BE and book partial profits.
However, i am at a constant battle as to what is a good risk/reward for the
first target. What do you guys do?
I recently took an AUD/USD short before the easter break and i could have
taken partial profits which equated to my initial risk in pip size. However, i
think that we need to see about 1:1.5 at least before scaling so i didn't take
profits and i got stopped out. This was mainly due to the fact that i was away
until yesterday and i could not manage the trade, otherwise i would have
moved my stop to BE when price had shown strong support.
I was just wondering whether you guys have a pre-determined risk/reward
and if this is not met then you leave the trade?
Also, regarding the entries on these setups. Say, for instance, you wish to
take on a dbhlc trade but you want to get in on the retrace to manage a
smaller stop, the same goes for a pin bar. Do you wait for the break of the

low/high of the bar first and then wait for the retrace?
This is really where the most work on your trading is going to be with
discretionary PA. Just some points to consider. If you are scaling out of a trade
make sure it's because it is actually increasing your profitability, not for some
emotional reason, like hating to lose, or hating too see a winner become a loser.
A good thing to do is go over past trades(a large sample), and see where you
intitially took 1/2 off, and just see what your profit would have been had you let
full profits run.
As far as R:R, no one says you have to have a set R;R, again lots of testing
here. There are numerous exit strategies to think use that may cut your losses
and let profits run without having to use a fixed R:R. Such as a trailing
stop(trailing previous X bars etc). Just food for thought. Exits are the key here,
and its going to become a personal thing.
As for retrace, the whole idea is to get in before price breaks the bar. Although
who's to say you can't do both. But when people talk about getting in on a
retrace, they mean before it breaks.

SeekingLight
Member Since Jul 2006
Charts + PA > *
3,257 Posts

Scaling out SEEMS good and FEELS good, however it usually doesn't DO good. I
know there's tons of stuff written on pyramids and scaling and whatnot, but
about the only thing I could agree with is adding to a position if the situation
presents itself.
Scaling out however, as outlined in the post linked above, just totally decreases
your profit and slows down your total growth potential.
I know this, because I am still prone to doing this as well and realizing I could
have just been more patient with my trade and ended up multiple times better
with the full position trailed out.
The point is - I'd dare say one doesn't take partials off to make more money,
one takes them off to "feel safer". That's a remnant of the scared money /
unsure trader syndrome and not something that works towards making money.
(Ah I see Mike already wrote something along these lines - totally agree there,
Mike!)
IMHO if you look over past trades and where you "took profit" or moved the
stop - perhaps to be taken out and then have price resume from that very spot
- in my case you will find that simply keeping the faith and giving each and
every trade you did a chance will do a LOT better. Don't outthink the market, let
the market itself decide what will or won't go.
That way those runners that do take off will reward you greatly and the losers
stay losers no matter how you turn it. So what if you halve the losses at times,
if it means you also reduce the chance at gaining 20-50% more if it ends up
turning into a winner that little bit of loss reduction DOES NOT COMPUTE.
It may not feel as nice, but it IS the smarter way of going about it I am
convinced.

I'll say this over and over again and if anyone thinks I am repeating myself it's
because I need to realize and hear this myself so that I, too, may "get" this,
because it IS the one thing I keep seeing over and over in my own trading,
too
Retraces - I've seen some small timeframe pin formations first move 1-15 pips
above the pin, turn around, go to .618ish and THEN and only then move out.
Confirmation of a small PB at this spot or similiar helps.
Please note that this is most likely due to me living on the small timeframes
however and may not apply to any other formation than the PB or higher TFs.
Obviously one would like to join price as its heading in the direction one wants
to go and not against one

mbqb11
Resident Elmer Fudd

Member Since Aug 2006


5,673 Posts

Originally Posted by steveshutts


CHeers Mike,
Is this something you have just looked at from forward testing? There are so
many factors influencing a decision with this kind of trading that you cannot
backtest, as it is discretional.
I suppose i choose to scale for emotional reasons. It enables me to stay in a
trade for longer, ensuring a free trade and i can trail the remainder behind
swing points etc. I have just started using these setups so cannot look back
over past trades.
This is indeed the hardest part of trading. Its all very well for people to say
don't let winners turn into losers, but if you always take that attitude then you
end up cutting profits all the time.
Nightmare!
After I had months of trades under my belt (that were scaled out), I went back
and redid all my trades had i taken full profit at the point I first scaled out.
Needless to say BIG DIFFERENCE in my bottom line. It will be different for
everyone too, have to find your niche.
There is ALWAYS going to be a trade off. If you move stops, your preventing
profits from runnings, if you don't your increasing losers, etc etc. The idea is to
find something that gives us some kind of edge in the long run, then to exploit
that over and over day in and day out being confident in our method.

SeekingLight
Member Since Jul 2006
Charts + PA > *
3,257 Posts
Why It Pays To Hold Trades

Okay, since I want to clear this up for anyone asking as well as for myself in my
own trading - here's a mini-series on WHY IT PAYS TO HOLD TRADES!!!!
So next time when you enter a trade and go panicky after 50 pips, trying no to
have all that profit disappear as it moves 20 pips against you - keep these
pictures in mind.

PLEASE THE MOST IMPORTANT DETAIL - THESE TRADES ARE ALL IN DIRECTION
OF THE MAIN TREND OF THE PAIR SHOWN.
Let's kick it off on a small timeframe - 4h, NZDUSD.
Also realize it doesn't matter where this happens - we were/are at record highs,
everyone was looking for tops, even James (and I, too) got fooled into trying to
see a short where there wasn't one.
After that I realized - wait. Trend is UP. I should be looking to go LONG.
And then this happened:

SeekingLight
Member Since Jul 2006
Charts + PA > *
3,257 Posts
Why It Pays To Hold Trades Episode 2

A small cable example - please note what this ONE trade could have done to your
account with 2% risk at the size of that 4h PB.
Stop size around 30 pips, moved 200, imagine closing at +180 -> you get 6 times
your risk. Assuming risk is 2% -> that is 12% account increase ON ONE TRADE IF
YOU JUST HOLD IT LONG ENOUGH.
Also a reminder to not overtrade but WAIT for the good setups.

Why It Pays To Hold Trades Episode 3

USDCAD - have been watching this one closely.


Tons and tons of chances to go short on this one, doesn't really matter which high
you took - there were 200-400 pips in this with patience, easy.
Again - HOLDING THE TRADE would have done it.
After the trendline went things started picking up even more.

Why It Pays To Hold Trades Episode 4 - Conclusion


And to finish it off with the nuclear Pip Holocaust - the EJ A-Trade.
700 pips for holding on to this from an inside bar 130 pips big.
At the very least - 5 times your risked amount, if you entered on a smaller
timeframe setup, depending on stop, 5-20 times. (5-20 x 2% = 10-40%)
Lessons here:
-HOLD TRADES. Give them a CHANCE.
-There is NO NEED to use more than 2% to make INSANE returns
-There is NO NEED TO OVERTRADE. One trade can go a long way if you can just
WAIT for the RIGHT moment. (all 4 trades with around 2% risked would have
done 8-12% each / moved 4-5+ times their stop size)
-GO WITH THE TREND, NOT AGAINST IT
If you can read, absorb, understand and then transform these 4 basics into your
everyday trading, you've got it made.
And if anyone is wondering why I am shouting, it is so that I myself may actually
hear and understand it, too.
That's it, mini-series closed.

the_wizard
Member Since Jan 2007
Member

#3276
776 Posts

eur/chf

calling seeking or mike,


this is a pin bar isn't it?
i know the close is not within the previous eye but it's only 3 ticks out...
besides, we've still got 23 minutes to go until the session end here in london...
tom

here is a view of that last chart on the hourly.


i always thought there was no "sure thing" in this game but there is no way that
was ever going anywhere but down.

NOTE an I4B is an Inside Bar with a smaller range (the difference in pips between
the bars low and the bars high) than any of the previous 3

SeekingLight
Member Since Jul 2006
Charts + PA > *

#3282
3,257 Posts

4h PB setup. Allowed one to pre-empt the daily inside bar breakout if one had
kept it (HOLD YOUR TRADES).
30 pip stop if you were patient and daring enough for a retrace, moved out >110
pips so far.
Together with the other 4h PB trade WITH THE TREND that'd be > 300 pips from
2 trades, each at <= 40 pips stop.
Notice how s/r flips here again.
The reason the bearish PB doesn't scare you is A) because it's just from a TL
bounce that's already been touched B) that bearish PB did not activate/move out
and C) trend is up, not down. Also price held .618 of the 1.9725 - 1.9809 miniupswing with that. Think of it as the retracement bus I keep mentioning back to
the pin bar high before takeoff.
I think if someone hasn't gotten the point by now then nothing's gonna change
that

Liquid11
Forex Prospect

#3356

Member Since Jul 2006


55 Posts

Buy or Sell

I have been reading Steve Nisons "Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques"


and i have a question. I had taken notes from this thread and I was comparing
them with the book and there is a pattern refered to as an engulfing pattern
which is the same as Jim's BUOVB and BEOVB (Outside Vertical Bars) I have
here that this pattern is a Trend Continuation Breakout. The book says it is a
reversal pattern! I'm confused and i thought i would ask to see if someone could
shed a little light on the subject!
BTW I recommend this book! A LOT OF INFO IN IT!!

SeekingLight
Charts + PA > *

Member Since Jul 2006


3,257 Posts

Originally Posted by Liquid11


I had taken notes from this thread and I was comparing them with the book
and there is a pattern refered to as an engulfing pattern which is the same as
Jim's BUOVB and BEOVB (Outside Vertical Bars)
This is true
I have here that this pattern is a Trend Continuation Breakout.
This is the two bar high / two bar low you mean, not the BUOVB/BEOVB.
TBH/TBL. You prolly switched them up.
Outside bars indicate heading in the direction of the outside/engulfing bar's
close.
Hope this helps.

mbqb11
Resident Elmer Fudd

Member Since Aug 2006

#3361
5,673 Posts

Originally Posted by vlazaf


Can someone please explain and maybe give an example as to what an IB4 is
and what are the necessary requisites. I have searched the forums without
success.
Thanks.
An I4B is simply when you have an inside bar that has a smaller range(high - low)
then the previous 3 bars. Although you can have an I5B and I10B etc.
Here is an example on the GBP/usd today

moneybags
Pipping Tom

Member Since Jul 2006

#3364
486 Posts

Originally Posted by NateTheGreat


Hey guys, I havent posted in a while, but like many people here, I am
constantly on these forums day and night soaking up all the information I
can. I must say Ive learned more from forexfactory in 8 months than from
anything else ive ever read, regarding forex anyway.
So anywho... I was hoping to ask you a couple questions mbqb, regarding the
I4B. I pretty much knew what it was, but, for the example above, since it
closed below that is a signal to go short and vice versa. Is that correct? Also,
one more thing, you say that it just has to have a smaller range the previous
3 bars, but doesnt it also have to be "inside" the previous bar as well? Or is
that just a better signal?
Thanks!
~Nate~
Hi Nate,
I'll jump in here and try to answer the questions. (Mike can add his thoughts
too)
The way the I4B is played is that you would go Short or Long depeding on how
it's broken by price. So if price went below the I4B's low you would go Short and
vice versa. But most people will have a bias on where they think price will head
so will only play a break in that direction. (it's personal preference really. Some
will put a BUY stop above the I4B and a SELL stop below)

And for your second question, yes it has to be inside the previous bar as well as
having the smallest range of the previous 3 bars. If it's not inside the previous
bar then it's not an I4B.

mbqb11
Member Since Aug 2006
Resident Elmer Fudd
5,673 Posts

My only points to add, is I find it better to be unbiased(this is something you will


have to get a feel for) and I always reverse my position. Meaning if I take a
short, and price comes back up and stops me out on the same day I close and
reverse.
Member Since Aug 2006

mbqb11

#3430
5,680 Posts

Resident Elmer Fudd

Originally Posted by zzz


i found in one place of the thread that jim recommended 365 sma, and in
other places he referred to 365 ema. which one he uses?
thanks
ema

mbqb11
Resident Elmer Fudd

Member Since Aug 2006

#3611
5,688 Posts

Originally Posted by x2012


James: First of all, I would like to thank you for all the work you have put in
over the years that led to the formation of perhaps the most important thread
I've ever seen on forex forums.
Anyway, down to business:
I've spent the last few days going over this thread and I have come up with a
couple of questions:
1) Could someone be kind enough to explain if there's any difference between
DBHLC(or DBLHC) and TBH(or TBL) formations?
I understand exactly what DBHLC(or DBHLC) is and how to play them but I'm
not so sure how to play a TBH(or TBL)
2) James mentioned somewhere in this thread that he will be revamping the PF
to make it better? Has that been done yet? I ask because I'm itching to join in
on the fun. From what I've heard time and time again is that the PF is worth
the cost anyway; but since some new stuff is expected, and I cant afford more
than a month, I might as well get in at the best time (kinda like an FX trade
eh? )
Thanks in advance for any replies.
Keep up the great work James, mbq, Seeking, Habeeb, Wizard and everyone
else

Hey
A DBHLC is when we have Equal Highs but the current bar finishes with a Lower
close then the previous bars Low. So a DBHLC is ALSO a TBH. BUT a TBH is not
neccesarily a DBHLC. Again the important part of the DBHLC is that the current
bar closes lower then the previous bars low.
So if you have matching highs, that is a TBH. And if you have matching lows that
is a TBL
(TBH is Two Bar High)

Mr Trend
Mmmm pips.

Member Since Apr 2006

#3630
1,362 Posts

Originally Posted by MIG


I just view it as a neutral bar - price went up then down and closed within the
previous bar, price would need to have closed below the previous bar to have
made it a BEOB
According to james, "BEOB: Bearish outside bar - this is a bar where the low is
lower than the previous bars low and higher than the previous bars high.
Preferably the close will be in the bottom third to quarter of the bar. The lower the
better."
That bar was pretty darn close. Looks more like a pin though actually...

In my experience, I've found you're better off playing BEOB's when they are at or
lower than the low... So you're statement is actually valid. There's no reason why
you couldn't trade it that way. You'd just be considered a more conservative PA
trader, that's all.

the_wizard
Member Since Jan 2007
Member

#3634
776 Posts

And now look what we have here...


Crude Oil Daily.
Pin bar off the 38 fib and the 21ema.
I think we could be about to resume the downtrend...

james16
Member Since Feb 2005
THANK YOU MERLIN

#3653
2,608 Posts

i tend to agree on the smaller time frames. a lot of people may stare in shock at
what im about to say but here goes. all of you know how big i am on demo first
but there is actually another step to your intraday demo process that i have
never mentioned on the public side. perhaps its time.
when your going thru your demo process on intraday, looking at higher time
frames is ok to help you early on but....before you ever trade intraday with real
money you SHOULD BE ABLE TO TRADE AN INTRADAY CHART PROFITABLY BY
ITSELF WITH ABSOLUTLY NO IDEA WHAT ANY HIGHER TIME FRAME IS DOING.
i trade the 15 minute chart on three pairs. mostly just two. eur/usd and usd/jpy.
they are the only two i have demoed down that far. yes i demo just like i tell
everyone else to do. i trade the mini dow on 5 minute. when i am trading these
time frames the last thing i will do is look at anything higher. a lot of people do
and it works for them but all it does is freeze me. if you freeze for even a
second or let any doubt enter your mind on these time frames your toast. when
your looking for 10 to 20 pips with a stop of 10 to 15 pips you better be right
and you better be confident.
so far this month i am 9-0 on the 15 minute. i sit for hours waiting for the
perfect set up. i keep a trade log and my watching time versus trading time is
around 48 hours to a little over 5 hours actually in trades. i dont daytrade to
trade, i daytrade to win.
trying to do this with a small account is very difficult and thats why i try to get
people to start out larger and build thier account before going intraday. when 10

pips makes you a grand or more its not hard to wait for the best setups and
take your profit. your time will seem worth it. sitting for 48 hours to make 50
bucks is tough, real tough. i spent almost a year working my way down to those
two pairs on 15 minute and i have been doing this almost 25 years.
are you guys treating it like a business? for your sake i sure hope so. if it takes
you several years to reach a point where your making damn good money and
doing what you want when you want is it worth it? money to spend and
complete freedom is the payoff but its reached by very very few people because
very very few people take it seriously. jump from system to system and blow
out a 2000 account time after time. been there and done that and i aint going
back. hard work, common sense, a business plan and practice practice practice.
jim

mbqb11
Member Since Aug 2006
Resident Elmer Fudd

#3914
5,694 Posts

Just as an added note, for something I observe personally. There are 3 major
types of pins IMO.
You have:
1. Pins that are countertrend, after large moves up or down, where one feels like
they are going against the longer term trend- such as the aud/usd (if it closes
today as is)

2. Then you have those pins that go with the trend(short or longer term) In this

case a short term down trend, but that doesn't occur on a retrace, kinda just
sticks out there(looks sideways). These pins I never play anymore (not that you
can't).

3. Then you have my personal fav, when you get a nice retrace on the current/or
longer term trend and a pin forms where it creates space away from the previous
trend. Meaning it retraced, but not with a sharp move.

Just some observations

SeekingLight
Member Since Jul 2006
Charts + PA > *

#3926
3,257 Posts

I'll be interested whether this really ends up hurt as bad as the wedge suggested
3-400 pips ago

Update of current situation - guess what started the move!


This is why I love PA, it combines so well with the classic TA stuff =)

james16

Member Since Feb 2005


THANK YOU MERLIN

#4269
2,608 Posts

many different approaches are discussed by long timers in this thread. the most
conservative manner is on a break of a particular bar. the single most important
thing is to combine simple support and resistance into your thought process. if
you have a price action set up telling you long and its right snug up against
strong resistance you need to think about a couple of things.
do i take a break of the bar into the resistance or do i enter after the resistance
has been broken. if you take the trade after a breakout of res you now have a
well thought smart place to put your initial stop that being under the res. simple
analysis that any trader should be able to decipher and do before ever risking
real money. no crazy indicators just simple price analysis combined with s/r. it
works very well AFTER A DEMO EDUCATION WHERE YOU PROVE TO YOURSELF
YOU CAN DO IT.
jim
Quote:

Originally Posted by wainernegocios


Hi, Jim.
How can I determine the entry after a pattern action ?
__________________

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=2331&page=305
Some metatrader brokers offer commodities/futures as well the mini dow and s&p in addition to forex.
Oriontrader and North finance are some of them.
http://www.orionbrokers.com/tradingproducts.php
http://www.northfinance.com/eng/open-demo-account/

Here's the link to the latest update of the indicator.


http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...2&postcount=39

hi again, wow that was a quick reply lol


No we don't have any insurance so are completely stuck with no transport... french insurance only covers if you are
french resident and just visiting uk :( so basically I spent all day yesterday on the phone trying to find a company that
will accept M's french NCB in the hope that we can buy a cheapo motor and get mobile again... so far have found
one company that will accept it and insure on the VIN number... but the quote was for nearly 600 quid!!!!!
Anyway, have found an Omega on autotrader for 1500 which we're considering buying - it has a year's mot and full
service so seems like the best option atm. It's 32 miles away so M has just gone down Ben's to ask for a lift and I
must get on with trying to get insurance for less that 600 quid :(
Yes we brought our omega (drove up ramps into the back of the removal van hehe)... that's why we thought it best to
go for another as any spares we might need are imediately available.
awwww bless little Dhuhee... she's sooo sweet... it's great that you realise the power of positive praise and you're
teaching her so well ((hugs))
sorry about your seeds.... bummer! hope you can get loads done in the garden whilst little un is at school... you'll
soon warm up lol
Sounds like your trading seems to be going well considering the internet hampering you so much... just think how
great it will be once you've got a reliable connection!
I'll sort the checque out to your pal as soon as I can - may have to wait til tomorrow - hope that's ok... looks like

another long day of phone calls and stress is on thecards for today.
Oooh btw... your international licence is here, will post that to you asap too :)
got to go tidy up as much as I can in readiness for Peter's visit this afternoon... the floor is covered with dust, muck
and grass, never looked this bad before, even when Aimee was living here hehe
loads of love to you all
Well done Keith. Looks like you really getting better at it every week - not sure if James16 could teach you more :-). I
wish I could jump on this trade with you. I woke up too late to pull out anything from my 5min charts. There was a
nice setup on 5min GBPUSD which would easily yield 1:2 .Now's gonne - trading 5mins GBPUSD and EURUSD
makes only sense during beginning of European/London session - New York is so unreliable this days.Anyway down
to the next trade when comes.Thank you for your generous gift Keith - much appreciate it. Hope to download and
watch as many videos as possible.Meantime I'm going to watch all guest area videos to tune into the methods.I
suppose nothing is going to happen between now and FOMC announcement in the evening so sense in starring at
the charts.
Thank you once again Keith.
Cheers
Jarek

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