The Industries of the Future, Alec Ross, 2016

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Unlike the previous wave of digital-led globalization and innovation, which
drew enormous numbers of people out of poverty in low-cost labor markets,
the next wave will challenge middle classes across the globe, threatening to
return many to poverty. (p. 6)
From 1082 t 2012 Indias poverty rate dropped from 60% to 22% of population.
In China, during same period poverty dropped from 84% to 13%.
There is no greater indicator of an innovative culture than the
empowerment of women (p. 14)

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Here come the robots
Robots will be the rare technology that reaches the mainstream through
elderly users first, spreading down as grandma shows off her next cutting-edge
gadget for the kids and grandkids. (p. 19)
Africa leapfrogging to the robot landscape? Eg of AFRON (African Robotics
Network)
Cultures react differently to robots, in Asia quite open vs fear in Western
countries.
Evolution in robotics possible thanks to:
belief space (framework that models environment and develops
probabilistic outcomes),
cloud robotics (coined by J. Kuffner in 2010), and
new materials.
Concept of singularity: when machine intelligence trips human intelligence.
Even without it advances will be spectacular (eg driverless cars, exoskeletons,
nano robots for surgery)
Foxconn: 1 million employees, and plan to by 1 million robots by 2015 (did it
happen?)
Human labor involves little capex and high opex, for robots its the other
way round (eg Hajime restaurant in Bangkok with robot waiters only)

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The future of the human machine

Genomics market size estimated at more than $11 billion in 2013 is growing
fast.
Eg of liquid biopsy which will detect cancer cells at 1% of size its currently
detected with MRI
Developing drugs targeted to the genetics of an individual as opposed to just
treating every cancer patient with chemotherapy is as unsubtle a change in
the practice of medicine as the introduction of anesthesia in the 19th
century. (p. 52)
Challenge of mental illnesses will also be addressed, eg gene identification to
prevent suicides. Risk is to create designer babies (eugenics).
Already companies working at crossroads of genomics and environmental
factors: BaseHealth has product called Genophen that sequences your genome
and makes lifestyle recommendations.
Xenotransplantation is another field with huge potential, and so is reversing
the effects of aging, e.g. today Human Longevity Inc. (HLI), as well as
bringing extinct life back to life (2003 experiment with extinct goats, didnt
survive after birth).
US and China big on the genomics, but in terms of science and engineering
academic articles, EU is still no. 1 in front of US. Russia lagging behind in the
area of genomics (historical / political reasons).
Health sector revolutionized by mobile phones, e.g. in Africa with Medic
Mobile, MedAfrica etc.
In the future, health systems will be decentralized, local and
preventive (p. 71)
The adoption of new technology finally occurs when ease of use, economic
savings and trust all come together to work toward change. (p. 74)

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The codification of money, markets and trust

Globally half a billion people use mobile banking and half of Americans, eg of
innovators include Square (mobile payments), Alipay (2.85 million transactions
per minute), Paypal.
Use of mobiles in refugee camps responds to new needs (stay in contact, keep
money safe in virtual format). Health and living conditions may be poor, but
refugees have access to mobile phones (14% of camp residents in a Congo
camp.
Pioneer in Africa is Mo Ibrahim, founder of CelTel in 1998. Also M-Pesa in
Kenya, fully mobile payment and remittances system. 19 million accounts for
a population of 44 million, and 25% of GDP flows through it!
So-called sharing economy is about coded markets of trust (2-way review
system introduced by Ebay).
Airbnb largest hotel chain without a hotel (800,000 listings in 34,000
cities).$20 billion valuation, more than twice Hyatt.
Uber, who will move into parcel delivery according to author, is worth $50
billion, more than double value of Hertz and Avis combined.
Coded markets like Airbnb and Uber simultaneously concentrate (based in
California) and disperse the market (p. 93)
Trust has become codified, and the role of the state as a regulator has been
diminished (p. 97) So safety nets need to grow with sharing economy.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies: decentralized, peer to peer digital
network with publicly available ledger of all past transactions. Fraud quasiimpossible. Concept of Bitcoin as a protocol just like HTML is potent.
As blockchain technology takes off, its impact will be like that of the
sharing economy and other forces of digital disintermediation: it will force
a rewrite of the compact between corporation, citizen, and
government. (p. 120).

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The weaponization of code
Aramco, most valuable company in the world worth $2 trillion, faced severe
cyberattack in 2012 (Shamoon). Cost of cyberattacks over $400 billion a year.
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 Cybersecurity market from 2000 to 2020 from $3.5 billion to $175 billion
market.
3 types of cyber attacks: confidentiality of data, network availability (DOS and
D-DOS attacks), and network integrity (Aramco). But attacks can also be
blended (eg AFP Twitter hacked by Syrian Electronic Army announcing death of
Obama and explosions at White House in 2013).
Eg Chinese use of cyberattacks: they steal but dont break.
With growth of Internet of Things all the things in our environment may
potentially be hacked into. Eg if GPS of navy attacked, they would be directed
to wrong position.
According to director of national intelligence J. Clapper, cyberattacks pose
greater long-term threat to national security than terrorism.
From cold war to code war: the weaponization of code is the most
significant development in airfare since the development of nuclear weapons,
and its rapid rise has created a domain of conflict with no widely accepted
norms or rules. (p. 142)
Pb is that Internet scrambles with rules of physical location + more and more
attacks directed from a country to a company and vice versa.
Cyber-industrial complex: it will mimic Silicon Valley functioning to look for
innovation (current big players wont achieve innovation on their own).
PB is that the market wont address citizens and small businesses.
Government has a responsibility to protect its people, not just its big
businesses and infrastructure (p. 151)

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Data: the raw material of the information age
In 1996 digital storage became cheaper than paper storage. In 2000, only 25%
of all data was stored electronically, in 2007 it was 94%.
Big data and analytics will have massive impact on our daily lives.
Universal machine translation will rely on big data to improve its offer, in
real-time. Will we still need translators - author says no.
Precision agriculture to feed 9 billion people. Offers possibility to target
field with pesticides only where needed, or adapt to climate changes.
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 Fintech aims to apply big data to financial and banking sector. Banks are
naturally data companies but didnt see themselves like that in the past. e.g.
of Standard Treasury or Square Capital which use big data to improve the
banking experience. > Pb is regulatory burden in the financial sector
In warfare, there are programs that use analytics and big data to predict risk
and suggest course of action. But what if enemy too is using these tools?
Public by default is becoming the new norm. Privacy will mean something
completely different for next generation.
Contradiction between need to protect citizens privacy and data and need to
stimulate growth and investment.
Risk that big data makes us less humans? Serendipity fades with everything
we hand over to algorithms (p. 180). Also important question of who owns
the data.
Big data is not the answer to all problems. Hasnt predicted Ebola outcome
well and correlations made by big data are likely to reinforce negative bias.

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The geography of future markets
Author asks question of how distributed the industries of the future will be:
some say Silicon Valley will maintain edge, others that it will be widely
distributed. Author thinks it will take combination of algorithmic expertise
and domain expertise (p. 193).
Geographic focus for innovation is the city, need to invest both in physical
infrastructure and big data applications attached to these infrastructures >
helps to attract investors and entrepreneurs
Importance of openness for success in industries of the future: looks at
differences in innovation between Russia (closed), Belarus (closed) and Estonia
(open, many achievements as first digital public service).
The foundational question being asked and answered by herds of state is
how much control to exert over society. (p. 215) 21st century witness loss of
control and diffusion of power.
Eg of China, Singapore vs India. Importance of education to build
innovation culture (India has strong knowledge workers).
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 Role of women: The states and societies that do the most for women are
those that will be best positioned to compete and succeed in the industries of
the future. (p. 226)
Eg difference between China (China leads world in number of women in
senior management position, 51%) vs Japan (very patriarchal society, only
1%).
Roe of young people: recognizing youth will be necessary to compete globally,
current problem of Europe.
What about Africa? Examples of frugal innovation. this is changing the
nature of Africas relationship with the rest of the world as its connections
shift from being rooted in philanthropy and development aid to being rooted
in business. (p. 234)
Eg Over 650 million phone subscriptions on the African continent, more
than in Europe or America. In Ghana and Nigeria, more women than men
entrepreneurs, and Rwanda has more women in parliament than men.

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Conclusion
Multicultural fluency is increasingly important in the future business world, so
will fluency in programming be, and learning how to think.
In tomorrows workplace either the human is telling the robot what to do or
the robot is telling the human what to do. (p. 247)
For most of the worlds 7.2 billion people, innovation and globalization have
created opportunity the likes of which has never before existed. (p. 249)