8/5/2016

DonaldTrumpsUSelectionjuggernautstartstolosemomentumFT.com

DonaldTrumpsUSelectionjuggernautstartstolose
momentumFT.com

DonaldTrumpsacthasnotchanged.Buthisaudiencehas.TheRepublicanpresidentialcandidatesfailureto
tailorhisprimaryseasonpersonatothedistinctrequirementsofthegeneralelectionisjeopardisinghisWhite
Housebidafterjustoneweekofcampaigning.
Despiterepeatedvowstopivottoamorepresidentialapproach,ithasbeenadisastrousweekforMrTrump.
HeengagedinaprotractedwarofwordswiththeparentsofaMuslimAmericansoldierwhodiedinIraq
declinedtoendorsekeymembersofhisownparty,includingHouseSpeakerPaulRyancalledforacrying
babytoberemovedfromoneofhisralliesandclaimedthattheelectionwasriggedagainsthim.
MrTrumphasbouncedbackfrompreviousfurores,suchashiswidelycriticisedattackonGonzaloCuriel,the
federaljudgeoverseeingtwolawsuitsagainstthebillionairesuniversityforrealtors.Butthisweekcouldbea
turningpointif,asmanyintheRepublicanestablishmentnowfear,MrTrumpprovesincapableofadjustinghis
strategy.
AppealingtoamajorityofRepublicansisnotthesameasappealingtoamajorityoftheelectorate,saysHenry
Olsen,anelectionsanalystattheEthicsandPublicPolicyCenter.
Thegeneralelectionismorediverse.Itsyounger.Itslesswhite.Itsmoreliberal,saidSeanTrende,senior
analystforRealClearPolitics.Inalmosteveryconceivableway,itslessadvantageousforacandidatelike
Trump.

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DonaldTrumpsUSelectionjuggernautstartstolosemomentumFT.com

Inpart,thatisbecauseMrTrumpswhiteworkingclassbasewhichbackshimoverHillaryClintonbynearly
twotooneinthelatestCNNpollmakesupasmallersliceofthegeneralelectionvote.Whitevoterswho
lackedacollegedegreecastmorethan50percentoftheRepublicanprimaryvotes.InNovember,theyll
probablyaccountforaround35percent,saysMrOlsen.
Indeed,MrTrumpwhovowstoMakeAmericaGreatAgainiswagingacampaignbettersuitedtoa
bygoneage.In1974,almostthreequartersofeligiblevotersweremembersofthewhiteworkingclass,
accordingtoa2015CenterforAmericanProgressstudy.
Thoughheoftenboastsaboutthe13mvoteshewonintheprimaries,hewillprobablyneedmorethan65mto
wintheWhiteHouse.TheprovocativestatementsanduncompromisingAmericafirstpoliciesthatmakeMr
TrumpaworkingclassdarlingrepelmillionsofvoterswhomheneedsforaNovemberwin.RepublicanMitt
Romney,forexample,woncollegeeducatedwhitesbyadoubledigitmarginfouryearsago.MrTrumpnow
trailsbehindMrsClinton49percentto37percentamongthatgroup.

KhizrKhanandhiswifeGhazala,parentsofaMuslimAmericansoldierwhodiedinIraq,whoMrTrumpgotintoawarofwordswith
AP

NoRepublicanhaseverlostcollegeeducatedwhites.Thatishisproblem.Hekeepsdoubling,tripling,
quadruplingdownonhighschooleducatedwhites,saidPaulBegala,aDemocraticstrategist.Thethingshes
donetosecurethatvotearegoingtomakeitverydifficult,perhapsevenimpossible,toaddtothattheother
55mvotesheneedstobepresident.
MrTrumpshowslittlesignofhavingageneralelectionstrategy.Hiscampaignhasbookedalmostnotelevision
advertisingfortheautumn,evenastheClintoncampaignhasreservedroughly$100m.Hisfieldorganisationis
thinandhistravelschedulehasseemedidiosyncratic.Thisweek,forexample,hescheduledarallyinupstate
NewYorkastatethathasnotgoneRepublicansince1984andwhereMrsClintonenjoysa12pointleadin
thelatestpoll.
Likewise,inAshburn,Virginia,onWednesday,hegotlittleresponsewhenhecitedseveralfactoryclosures,
perhapsbecausetheyoccurredhundredsofmilesawayindistantcornersofthestate.
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DonaldTrumpsUSelectionjuggernautstartstolosemomentumFT.com

Bytheendoftheweek,amidreportsofadysfunctionalanddispiritedcampaignstaff,MrTrumptrailedbehind
Clinton44percentto35percentinaFoxNewspollthatincludedtheLibertariancandidate,formerNew
MexicogovernorGaryJohnson.
MrTrumprodehispopularityamongwhiteworkingclassvoterstovictoryintheRepublicanprimaries.Butwhat
workedwiththeGOPisfallingflatwiththe64percentoftheelectoratethatidentifiesassomethingotherthan
Republican.
SeparatesurveysshowedMrTrumplaggingbehindinseveralbattlegroundstates,includingFlorida,Michigan,
PennsylvaniaandNewHampshire.Lossesineachofthosestateswouldmakeitextremelydifficultforthe
realitytelevisionimpresariotobecomepresident.
Asrealitydawns,mainstreamRepublicansarebeginningtoheadfortheexits.MegWhitman,chiefexecutiveof
HewlettPackardandaformerRepublicangubernatorialcandidateinCalifornia,announcedshewillvoteforMrs
Clintonandraisemoneyforher.ThreeRepublicancongressmenalsodefected.Andaslewoflocalparty
officials,strategistsandformerRepublicanofficialscameoutagainsttheirnominee.

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DonaldTrumpsUSelectionjuggernautstartstolosemomentumFT.com

MrTrumpholdstwobabiesinColoradoonJuly29.Dayslaterheattractedcriticismforhavingacryingbabyremovedfromarally
inVirginiaReuters

Still,itisonlyAugust.AlongwiththeRepublicanNationalCommittee,MrTrumpraised$82minJuly,nearly
keepingpacewiththe$90mhauledinbytheClintoncampaignandtheDemocraticParty.Despiteadreadful
week,heremainswithinstrikingdistanceofhisDemocraticrival.OverflowcrowdsattendedhisralliesinVirginia
andFlorida.(AndthatquixoticeventinupstateNewYorkultimatelywascancelled).
ButtoclosethewideninggapwithMrsClinton,MrTrumpmustavoidarepeatofthisweekscascadeoferrors.
Politicalanalystsofallstripesremainunconvincedhecan.
Clintonisonherwaytosomethingintheneighbourhoodof400electoralvotes,saysMrTrende.Theresstill
timetochangecourse,butnotalotofit.Andthecandidatedoesntseemtogetthatheneedsto.
ReportingbyBarneyJopsoninAshburn,Virginia,andCourtneyWeaverinColorado CopyrightTheFinancialTimes
Limited2016.Allrightsreserved.Youmayshareusingourarticletools.Pleasedon'tcutarticlesfromFT.comandredistributebyemailorpost
totheweb.

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