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1Introduction
The reforms in both India and China have led to rapid economic
growth, with growth rates touching 9-10 per cent per annum in
China and 8-9 per cent per annum in India in recent years. Despite similar trends in the growth rates, the two countries have
taken different reform paths; China started off with reforms in the
agriculture sector and in rural areas, while India started by liberalising and reforming the manufacturing sector. These differences
have led to different growth rates and, more importantly, different
rates of poverty reduction. They also have fundamentally different
implications for growth and poverty reduction in the future.
What can we learn from the process of economic reform in
these two countries? Does the sequencing of reform and an
agriculture-led package matter? What could other developing
countries and countries in economic transition learn from the
experiences of India and China? What could these two countries
learn from their own as well as each others experiences? How
can the two largest developing countries cooperate in their
agricultural and economic development and work together at
multilateral negotiations, such as those conducted through the
World Trade Organisation (WTO), to address the concerns of
developing countries?
This paper summarises the key findings of a number of studies
that were prepared for two international conferences devoted to
comparing the rural development and agricultural reform experiences of China (the dragon) and India (the elephant) over the last
several decades.1 These are as follows:
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review of agriculture
from late 1960s and the late 1980s. This is the period of the socalled green revolution and agricultural growth was high due to
the use of modern technologies and the strong policy support to
agriculture. In contrast, agriculture was not a major factor behind
poverty reduction during the era of reforms. In fact, farm growth
fluctuated and remained around the same levels of the 1980s, if
not marginally lower. During 1991-2003 agricultural GDP grew at
2.7 per cent a year compared to 2.9 per cent a year between 1980
and 1990 [GoI, Economic Survey]. Agricultural growth did rise
immediately after reforms began in 1991, at 4.1 per cent a year till
1997 before dipping again to 2 per cent. However, this higher
growth of six years did not have a noticeable impact on rural poverty, which reduced only slightly from 37.4 per cent in 1990-91 to
35.7 per cent in 1997. That is partly because, rather than through
reforms that directly affect the farm sector, agriculture growth was
induced in India primarily by interventions outside agriculture, including currency depreciation and reduction of protection in industry,
leading to an improvement of the terms of trade for agriculture.
Figure 1: GDP Growth in China and India
Index (1951-52=100, India; 1952=100, China)
4500
4000
enterprises (SOEs). Reforms of the SOEs in turn triggered macroeconomic reforms, opening up the economy further.
A comfortable domestic food supply situation achieved through
the various incentive reforms ensured a critical level of grain production before liberalisation could begin and allowed Chinese policy
makers to abandon the old agricultural policy framework geared
towards self-sufficiency in foodgrains. The procurement system
was dismantled everywhere except for the main grain-producing
regions and the food rationing system was abolished in the early
1990s. As a result, private agricultural trade is now flourishing.
In India, reforms were actually prompted by macro imbalances
and thus started with macroeconomic and non-agricultural reforms.
These led to impressive rates of economic growth in the 1990s but,
being limited to the non-agricultural sectors, did not have as signi
ficant an impact on poverty as in the case of China. Policy changes
related to agriculture were carried out much later, and even then
were only partial. India still continues with state food procurement
and distribution, mainly because it is seen as affirmative action for
over two-thirds of the population, including the poorest, who are
dependent on agriculture and the rural economy, for livelihood.
The Chinese policymakers first created the incentives and institutions required by the market economy and then, in the mid-1980s,
they began to slowly open up markets, by withdrawing central
1000
planning and reducing the scope of procurement while expanding
0
1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003
the role of private trade and markets. Studies show that the impact
Sources: Calculations for China are based on data from National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) 2003;
on growth from incentive reforms of land use rights, agricultural
Calculations for India are based on India, CSO 2004 and India, RBI 2003.
production management through the household responsibility sysFigure 2: Growth in Agricultural Output and Productivity in China and India
tem (HRS), and rising procure(a) Agricultural output
(b) Total Factor Productivity
ment prices during 1978-84
Ag GDP Index (base=1952)
TFP Index (base=1970)
1400
was larger than from market
250
1400
1200
1200
China
liberalisation reforms after 1984
200
1000
1000
[Fan 1991; Lin 1991]. This was
China
150
800
800
because incentive reforms in
600
600
India
100
China aided the gradual emerIndia
400
400
gence of markets which kept
50
200
200
at bay the negative effects of
0
0
0
1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996
the sudden collapse of the old
Sources: (a) Authors calculations based on NBS (2002) and Indiastat data 2003;
central planning system in the
(b) China: Fan, Zhang and Zhang 2002. India: Fan, Hazell and Thorat 1999.
absence of market-based alBy making agriculture the starting point of market-oriented re- locative mechanisms, as experienced in other transitional countries.
forms, a sector which gave majority of the people their livelihood,
It is not that the Chinese policymakers had planned this
China could ensure a widespread distribution of gains and build sequence meticulously; rather, it evolved out of a trial and error
consensus and political support for the continuation of reforms. approach in implementing reforms. The adoption of new measures
Reform of incentives resulted in greater returns to the farmers and through experimentation rather than a predetermined blueprint
in more efficient resource allocation, which in turn strengthened increased the likelihood of the success of reforms since it implied
the domestic production base and made it more competitive. Be- a learning by doing approach or, in the words of Deng Xiaoping,
sides, prosperity in agriculture favoured the development of a one of crossing the river while feeling the rocks [Chow 2002].
dynamic rural non-farm (RNF) sector, regarded as one of the main This was peculiar to the Chinese reform process in which the
causes for rapid poverty reduction in China as it provided additional government made sure that each new policy was field-tested at
sources of income outside farming [Fan, Zhang and Zhang 2002]. length and determined to be successful in selected experimental
The rapid development of the RNF sector also encouraged the districts before it could be applied nationwide and the next measgovernment to expand the scope of policy changes and put pressure ure introduced [Chen, Wang and Davis 1999].
on the urban economy to reform as well, since non-farm enterprises
In the case of India, agricultural trade reforms were a point of
in rural areas had become more competitive than the state-owned departure in agricultural policy. It can be argued that this sequence
3000
2000
138
China
India
review of agriculture
5 Public Investments
In China, the correlation between the initial conditions and postreform achievements in poverty reduction and growth makes a
convincing case for stepping up government investments in rural
infrastructure and social services. In India, on the other hand,
the decline in rural public investment as a result of fiscal profligacy
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review of agriculture
140
through public-private partnerships, may help usher in a multicoloured revolution (not just a green one) in agriculture.
In both countries, water use efficiency can be vastly improved
through institutional and management reforms of existing water
systems. Indias experience with water users associations (WUA)
in some states, participatory watershed schemes and communitybased rain harvesting can provide good learning experience.
Transfer of management to user groups was more successful in
India, although the coverage of irrigated areas by these user
associations remains low in India compared to other south-east
Asian countries [Rao 2002]. Insufficient administrative and
political will to devolve management powers to the local WUAs
and inadequate infrastructure for building capacity inhibited
the involvement of farmers in India [Rao 2000]. On the other
hand, the Chinese experience shows that reforms aimed at
giving incentives to irrigation systems managers to improve useefficiency had a positive effect on crop yields, groundwater table
and cereal production [Wang et al 2003]. The question is
whether the strategy of transforming water bureaucrats into
managers is possible in India.
Providing right incentives to farmers is crucial to promoting
water saving. Low water prices and profligate power subsidies for
operating tubewells have encouraged wasteful use of water and
depletion of groundwater resources. Ambiguous water use rights
following de-collectivisation in China, and laws linking water
rights to land ownership in India also led to inefficiencies. These
included the emergence of unfair water markets over time, where
rich landholders with modern water extraction technology profited from selling water to poorer cultivators.
Increase in water use charges may not be feasible in the short
to medium term without changes in the institutional set-up. In
India, irrigation is affected by realpolitik as free electricity for
pumping water is offered for political rent-seeking. In both countries, given the booming numbers of private tubewell owners and
weak institutions and infrastructure that make monitoring of
water withdrawals and revenue collection difficult,4 the impact
of reforms like withdrawal permit systems and volumetric charging can only be limited [Shah, Scott and Buechler 2004; Wang,
Huang and Rozelle 2003]. Improved crop yields can also lead to a
more efficient use of scarce water resources in agriculture. For
that, inputs other than water, such as credit and agricultural
research on water saving and yield-improving technologies, need
to be deployed. This is particularly true for India where both
irrigated and rainfed crop yields are lower than those in China.
In both countries, this may also call for trade and price policies
favourable to high-value, less water-intensive crops. In India,
technological innovations to improve yields seem more feasible
in the short and medium term than management reforms for improving water use efficiency, given the political and institutional
constraints [Rao 2002].
6Reform Incentives
Chinas experience with marketing reforms holds valuable lessons for other transition economies. Farm support policies lose
their rationale when there is oversupply of food and agricultural
trade is free and open. Indian MSPs and input subsidies were
june 28, 2008 EPW Economic & Political Weekly
review of agriculture
Trade Liberalisation
With regard to broad trade liberalisation, both countries made
progress in reducing protection levels. Still, Indias weighted
average tariff at 29 per cent was double that of Chinas 16 per
cent [Ahluwalia 2002]. India was able to sustain its current
growth rate with lower foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows
and a relatively less export orientation than China. But if it has
to attain the target of 9 per cent GDP growth it needs to further
reform the FDI climate in view of its potential to transfer knowhow, managerial skills and new technologies. China can offer
valuable lessons in this area.
The inevitable restructuring and adjustments involved in
opening up agricultural trade flows will produce both winners
and losers. Domestic producers of crops in which the country
lacks comparative advantage (for example, edible oils in the case
Economic & Political Weekly EPW june 28, 2008
of India and wheat and maize for China) are likely to suffer increasingly from falling prices resulting from higher imports. They
will also be negatively affected when there is pressure on the
governments to reduce support to inefficient national producers.
Broad-based structural adjustments in the economy may depress
rural income, increase opportunities in manufacturing as well as
services primarily located in urban areas, and widen rural-urban
inequality. These inter-sectoral adjustments will progressively
shrink the size of the primary sector, which will release additional unskilled labour into the labour markets.
The rural population will gain if it is able to shift to more profitable off-farm occupations. Here, investment in rural education
can help farmers move out of traditional occupations. It will also
be important to increase investments in rural R&D and infrastructure to enhance productivity. These investments fall under the
WTO green box and are therefore exempted from reduction
commitments, although their positive impact will be realised
over the longer run. On the positive side, WTO membership can
provide the much-needed external pressure to improve efficiency
and implement reforms in tradable inputs such as seeds, fertilisers, farm machinery and pesticides, where markets are inefficient
either due to government intervention or lack of infrastructure. It
can also highlight the facilitating role of the government in the
provision of services like information, marketing facilities, technical assistance, and standards and quality control regulations.
Lastly, WTO also offers an opportunity to join hands and create a
third force of countries besides the giants European Union (EU)
and the US in negotiations during the Doha round.
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review of agriculture
Inadequacies
In smallholder dominated farming, diversification has important
implications for poverty reduction. The labour-intensive nature of
the production of high-value products is not only well suited to the
small farm economy but there is also great potential for employment creation in agro-processing and retail chains. Strengthening
vertical integration through innovative institutional arrangements
without tackling the other major obstacles faced by the small
farmers would not be effective in reducing poverty. In fact, Indias
case shows how institutional deficiencies like weak enforcement
of contracts and high transaction costs faced by small cultivators
often prompt agro-firms to deal directly with large farmers.
Acceleration of diversification in favour of small farmers is also
hindered by lack of access to markets, technology and information, poor rural infrastructure and inadequate marketing facilities.
Future reforms need to address these issues through increased investments in basic rural infrastructure and marketing facilities like
cold storage chains. Lastly, small cultivators often lack sufficient
marketable surplus. Nor can they raise production at will due to
their lack of access to technology and financial services. Welltargeted government support services are needed in credit markets
and extension services designed specifically for smallholders.
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8Anti-Poverty Programmes
The role of anti-poverty programmes (APPs) and safety nets in
poverty alleviation came into sharp focus in the 1990s to address
the negative impact of liberal policies on income distribution.
The need for fiscal stabilisation in India meant the reduction in
transfers to the states and in capital expenditures on rural infrastructure [Jha 2000], to counterbalance which the government
stepped up funding for several existing anti-poverty programmes
and created new ones. In China, the government was strongly
committed to addressing the poverty problem, and government
initiatives, as announced in official plans and government conferences starting in the mid-1990s, were revived.
Poverty funds and programmes have documented shortfalls
and inefficiencies in terms of targeting and cost-effectiveness,
but their significant contribution to limiting the severity and the
extent of poverty is inescapable. There are still more than 400
million rural poor in India and China, based on the international
standard of one dollar a day (more than 100 million in China
and more than 300 million in India). In China, the bulk of the
rural poor are primarily in the remote, mountainous or naturalresource poor western provinces. In India, they are concentrated
in the eastern (Bihar, Orissa and West Bengal), central (Madhya
Pradesh) and northern (Uttar Pradesh) states where rural
poverty is higher than the all-India average of 27 per cent as
of 2004-05.
Radical redistributive measures like land reforms are relatively
impractical in India due to their potential for social conflict, while
public investments take a long time to translate into employment
and economic growth. Compared to these, APPs are a more agile
instrument in the short run, provided their shortcomings are
removed.5 Poor design, targeting, implementation and fund misuse are key causes of ineffective poverty programmes. To improve
targeting, one lesson that China may draw from the experience
of India is in the use of a greater variety of targeted programmes
directed to specific sections of the poor as opposed to its own
june 28, 2008 EPW Economic & Political Weekly
review of agriculture
traditional, broader income or area-based approaches. Selfselection schemes like rural public works and plans targeting
women, children and the elderly are more pro-poor since identification of the beneficiaries are easier, faster and less costly.
To strengthen the impact of APPs, decentralised and participatory approaches are more effective than top-down strategies as
they involve a greater variety of agents (non-governmental
organisations (NGOs), civil society, and international aid organisations) in the fight against poverty besides the government.
India is a good point of reference in this respect since extensive
participation of panchayats and civil society at various stages of
the formulation and implementation of the programmes ensures
the tailoring of programmes to local needs, thereby improving
their impact and effectiveness.
10Conclusions
A number of factors help to explain the differences in growth between the two countries during the reform era: initial conditions,
the sequencing and pace of reforms, and the political system, institutions, and regulatory environment. Yet special mention must
be made of the fact that China and India achieved remarkable
development and growth even as aid as a percentage of GDP in
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review of agriculture
Notes
1 These events, held in New Delhi and Beijing,
brought together many prominent Chinese and
Indian scholars and policymakers and were
organised by the International Food Policy Research
Institute in collaboration with the Jawaharlal
Nehru University, New Delhi, and the Chinese
Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing.
2 See Elbehri, Hertel and Martin (2003) who provide a case study on the impacts of trade liberalisation in the cotton sector.
3 Between 1952 and 1977, Chinese agricultural GDP
increased at about 2.3 per cent a year.
4 There were near 20 million private tubewell
owners in India as on 2003 and 3.5 million in
China as on 1997.
5 Jha (2001) provides a comprehensive analysis of
the financial, regulatory and political ways to improve the effectiveness of poverty reduction programmes.
6 In recent years some cities including Beijing were
allowed to relax the danwei system of permits, a
government controlled work-unit to which urban
citizens had to apply for permission to get housing, wedding licence, passport, etc. The decline of
the danwei system is a consequence of the restructuring of the SOEs during the reform years.
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