Trading Daily

North America

Market Commentary

Todays Highlights (J Mckeever/K Koenig/A Dash/R Cherry)

The last trading day of the week brings a flurry of data. Well start in
China, where weaker than expected Industrial Production (6% vs.
6.2% exp) and Retail Sales YoY (10.2% vs. 10.3% exp) didnt stop
SHCOMP from rallying 1.6%. Kasper Bartholdy (head of emerging
markets strategy in FID) notes that in China, July of this year had 21
working days vs 23 last year. Against that background, Chinas IP
numbers look respectable. In Europe, Eurozone IP was a tick better
(+0.6% vs +0.5% exp), and Eurozone GDP was on the nose at +0.3%.
On a country level German GDP beat, and Portugal and Italy both
missed. On GDP our economists point out that a strong Q1 likely
meant there was going to be some payback in the second quarter, and
taken as a whole, H1 remained solid. UK construction output also
missed small (-2.2% vs -2.1% exp).
Here in the US, Retail Sales are expected to come in at +0.4%
headline, +0.1% ex-auto, and +0.3% ex auto & gas. PPI consensus is
+0.1% headline, +0.2% core, and preliminary U-Mich is expected to
come in at 91.5.
The latest note from our global strategy team (led by Andrew
Garthwaite) explores their near-term tactical concerns on the gold price
and particular gold stocks. The house view on gold is $1,475 in Q4
2016 (+10%) and $1,500 in Q1 2017 (+12%). The 3 key drivers of the
gold price are: 1) the US dollar; 2) real rates; and 3) fear of
financial/monetary instability (proxied by the price relative of financials).
While gold is marginally overvalued on the teams model (~4%), their
main concern is that gold stocks have hugely decoupled from the gold
price (the largest decoupling they have seen) suggesting investors are
discounting as our analysts suggest a $1,500 gold price. Lower
quality (low CFROI relative to peers) names have actually outperformed
high quality over the past year. The full note contains stock level detail,
and is available on CS Plus or by contacting your CS rep.

Printable Version:
.

Friday, August 12, 2016

MARKET UPDATE
NY Time: 8:09 AM

STOCKS
Americas:
Dow (Fut)
S&P500 (Fut)

% Chg

Level

Status

0.05% 18574.0
0.05% 2182.8

(Opn)
(Opn)

0.07%
0.24%

3046.0
6906.0

(Opn)
(Opn)

1.10% 16919.9
0.83% 22766.9

(Clsd)
(Clsd)

Europe:

EuroStoxx50 (Fut)
FTSE 100 (Fut)
Asia:

Nikkei 225
HangSeng
OPTIONS
VIX (Index)
BONDS
3 Mth Yld
2 Yr Yld
10 Yr Yld
FX
Euro
Pound
Aussie
Yen
COMMODITIES
Oil
Gold

-0.09 pts

11.59

(Opn)

0.00%
-0.01%
-0.02%

0.28%
0.73%
1.54%

(Opn)
(Opn)
(Opn)

% Chg vs USD

$-
$-
$-
$-

0.17%
1.116
0.05%
1.296
-0.30%
0.768
-0.03% 101.990

0.09%
43.53
0.07% 1339.60
Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Index Changes Today

MID: AKRX US (Upweight, 0.009%. 0.3m shares to buy = 0.2 days)
MID: ARE US (Upweight, 0.030%. 0.3m shares to buy = 0.5 days)
MID: EDR US (Upweight, 0.021%. 0.5m shares to buy = 0.9 days)
MID: MSM US (Downweight, -0.019%. -0.3m shares to sell = 0.4 days)
MID: WPX US (Upweight, 0.010%. 1.1m shares to buy = 0.1 days)
SML: ANGO US (Upweight, 0.005%. 0.1m shares to buy = 0.2 days)
SML: BBG US (Upweight, 0.008%. 0.5m shares to buy = 0.3 days)
SML: COR US (Upweight, 0.042%. 0.2m shares to buy = 0.3 days)
SML: HVT US (Downweight, -0.003%. -0.1m shares to sell = 0.5 days)
SML: MYRG US (Downweight, -0.009%. -0.1m shares to sell = 0.9 days)
SML: WWE US (Upweight, 0.008%. 0.1m shares to buy = 0.3 days)
SPX: DISCK US (Downweight, -0.002%. -1.6m shares to sell = 0.8 days)

Page 1 of 4

US Trading Daily
12 August 2016

Source: Bloomberg

Page 2 of 4

Daily US Volume vs S&P Index

Volume
S&P 500

2200

2050
2000

29-Jul

1-Jul

15-Jul

17-Jun

3-Jun

20-May

6-May

1950

S&P Price Level

2150
2100

22-Apr

Economic Statistic/Event
Consensus
Prior
Adjusted Retail & Food Services Sales SA Total Monthly % Change 0.4%
0.6%
Adjusted Retail Sales Less Autos SA Monthly % Change
0.2%
0.7%
Adjusted Retail Sales Less Autos and Gas Stations SA MoM Percent Change
0.3%
0.7%
Adj Retail Sales Less Food Auto Dealers & Build Materials & Gas Stations
0.3 MoM% 0.5
US PPI Final Demand MoM SA
0.1
0.5
US PPI Final Demand Less Foods and Energy MoM SA
0.2
0.4
US PPI Final Demand Less Foods Energy and Trade Services MoM 0.2
0.3
US PPI Final Demand YoY NSA
0.2
0.3
US PPI Final Demand Less Foods and Energy YoY NSA
1.2
1.3
US PPI Final Demand Less Foods Energy and Trade Services NSA YoY0.9
US Manufacturing & Trade Inventories Total MoM SA
0.1%
0.2%
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
91.5
90.0
University of Michigan Current Economic Conditions Index
109.0
University of Michigan Consumer Expectations Index
77.8
UMich Expected Change in Prices During the Next Year: Median
2.7
UMich Expected Change in Prices During the Next 5-10 Years: Median 2.6

16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
-

8-Apr

Time
8:30 AM
8:30 AM
8:30 AM
8:30 AM
8:30 AM
8:30 AM
8:30 AM
8:30 AM
8:30 AM
8:30 AM
10:00 AM
10:00 AM
10:00 AM
10:00 AM
10:00 AM
10:00 AM

Shares (Billions)

Todays Economic Announcements:

1900

Source: Bloomberg

US Trading Daily
12 August 2016

Chart of the Day: Home Buyers Remain Hesitant (Michael Dahl)

Traffic Down Slightly: Our Buyer Traffic Index edged down

1 pt to 40 in July (vs. 41 in June), indicating traffic levels
remaining below agents expectations following the June
pullback. Our Weighted Traffic Index was also down 1 pt
m/m. Agents broadly cited a lack of inventory in many
markets, particularly at affordable levels. Incrementally,
buyers seemed more resistant to higher home prices with
some willing to move to the sidelines. Consistent with last
month, many buyers also remain hesitant and cautious due
to broad economic concerns. Quite a few agents were
surprised how quickly demand faded through the Summer,
suggesting some payback following stronger Spring trends.
On the other hand, many agents noted that favorable
mortgage rates continue to support demand, though still not
much of an urgency factor. In many markets, comments still
pointed to sluggish high-end trends vs. healthy demand at
lower price points.

Prices Move Higher, but Less Broadly than in Recent

Months: Our Price Index slipped 5 pts in July to 66 from 71
June, indicating broad price appreciation. Despite the
choppy traffic and growing buyer price sensitivity, tight
supply has thus far continued to favor sellers.

Monthly Survey of Real Estate Agents July 2016

Source: Credit Suisse

For more details, follow the link

Delta One (John Penney)

ETF Desk Color (Sources: Bloom berg, CS MarketSnap)

Activity on our desk was 63% for sale and institutions were 79% of our flows

Institutions were selling Gold (GLD), International (EFA) via ETF Nitro and Materials (XLB); buying EM Equity (EEM) via ETF
Nitro

Hedge funds buying EM Equity (EWW, EEM) and selling Real Estate (IYR).

Yesterdays Fund Flows (Sources: Bloom berg)

Equity flows were positive for the sixth straight day yesterday, led by EM Equity (EEM +$604mm, IEMG US Equity, EWW US
Equity) and Small Cap (IWM +$391mm, VBK +$85mm)

Within sectors, Real Estate (VNQ +$189mm) and Discretionary (FXD +$210mm) both led while Energy lagged (XLE -$222mm,
XOP -$161mm)

IG Corporates were the biggest winners within Fixed Income (CIU +$111mm, LQD +$49mm).

Question of the Day

Today: How many countries does Brazil border?

Previous Day: What are the only Olympic sports the U.S. has never won a medal?
Answer: Table tennis, badminton, and handball.

Page 3 of 4

US Trading Daily
12 August 2016

Contributors and Contacts

Trading Strategy

Delta One Trading

Victor Lin

415-836-7643

victor.lin@credit-suisse.com

Josh Lukeman

} 212-325-3205

josh.lukeman@credit-suisse.com

Ana Avramovic

212-325-2438

ana.avramovic@credit-suisse.com

Justin Bojarski

justin.bojarski@credit-suisse.com

Meera Krishnan

212 325 5613

meera.krishnan@credit-suisse.com

Rob Bernstone

212-325-3205

robert.bernstone@credit-suisse.com

Michael Strongin

212-325-3205

michael.strongin@credit-suisse.com

Justin Waluch

212-325-3205

justin.waluch@credit-suisse.com

212-325-7421

john.dwyer@credit-suisse.com

212-325-5227

tim.scanlon@credit-suisse.com

Program Trading Sales

Futures

James Mckeever

james.mckeever@credit-suisse.com

Kevin Koenig

} 212-325-7764

kevin.koenig@credit-suisse.com

John Dwyer

Aunrie Dash

aunrie.dash@credit-suisse.com

Derivative Sales

Ron Cherry

ron.cherry@credit-suisse.com
Tim Scanlon

Special Situations
Tom Bruno

Interest Rates
212-325-3684

tom.bruno@credit-suisse.com

Praveen Korapaty

212-325-3427

praveen.korapaty@credit-suisse.com

Cash
Laura Prostic

212-325-2147

laura.prostic@credit-suisse.com

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