Professional Documents
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This was introduced in Unit 3but I repeat a bit here, then expand it to consider how we can deal with
problems in it.
What is the balance of payments?
The balance of payments is a record of a countrys economic transactions with other (foreign) countries. It
includes the trade in goods and services, reveals how we pay for this, or if did not pay it tells us what we
still owe. It also includes other financial flows, like foreign investment and company dividend payments.
We used to consider the balance of payments was divided into two: the current account and the capital
account. In 1998 a new method of presenting our international situation was introduced which contains
four categories within the balance of payments.
1. The current account.
2. The capital account.
3. The financial account.
4. The international investment position.
THE CURRENT ACCOUNT
This course focuses heavily on the current account, which includes:
Trade in goods.
Trade in services.
Income from working abroad, and from investments abroad.
Current transfers: central government and private.
The UK Balance of Payments, 2003 in millions The Current Account (Simplified)
CREDITS
DEBITS
BALANCE
10,827
21,099
-10,272
Basic materials
3,325
6,125
-2,800
16,478
11,128
5,350
Semi-manufactures
54,244
55,751
-1,507
GOODS
Finished manufactures
101,961
138,255
-36,294
Other goods
868
1,594
-726
Total Goods
187,703
233,952
-46,249
Transportation
11,424
16,679
-5,255
Travel
13,673
29,443
-15,770
Financial services
13,244
3,277
9,967
Other services
49,965
25,060
24,905
Total services
88,306
74,459
13,847
1,116
1,059
57
125,250
101,922
23,328
Total income
126,366
102,981
23,385
4,173
10,942
-6,769
Other sectors
8,886
11,860
-2,974
13,059
22,802
-9,743
415,434
434,194
-18,760
SERVICES
INCOME
CURRENT TRANSFERS
The Ten Economic Goals and the Effects on the Balance of Payments
WHAT MIGHT
OCCUR
If we grow faster.
If resource allocation
improves.
If income distribution
becomes more equal.
If inflation increases.
If unemployment
increases.
Value of currency
changes.
If the pound gets weaker it encourages our exports and discourages imports, so
the B of P probably improves. Note that the currency may be weak because the
B of P is already poor!
What can we do if the balance of payments gets into a fundamental disequilibrium state?
A fundamental disequilibrium state means that:
imports are considerably more than exports; and
there is a persistent balance of payments deficit; and
there is no likelihood that this situation will change.
The IMF will only allow major changes in exchange rates or special action to help the balance of
payments if the country can persuade the IMF officials that there actually is a fundamental
disequilibrium.
There are three possible ways of tackling this:
1. Via the exchange rate system if the exchange rate is fixed (like China which currently fixes the yuan
against the US dollar) we might alter our exchange rate
(although countries are bound by the IMF agreement as long as they are members. This solution is not
applicable to the UK as our exchange rate floats (see below).
2. Via demand side management of the domestic economy. Lowering the level of aggregate demand
would provide short term help by reducing imports and possibly freeing up some goods and services for
exports.
3. Via supply side management of the domestic economy. Pushing out the long run supply curve would
provide permanent help.
The first way of tackling a balance of payment problem: changing the foreign exchange rate
The exchange rate methods that a country might have adopted
1. Floating.
2. Fixed.
3. Managed.
1. Floating rates:
These are normal for most countries these days; floating rates are currently in force for the UK.
The supply of and demand for the pound determines its value.
1. The demand for pounds comes from foreigners who wish to buy British goods or invest in Britain.
2. The supply of pounds comes from the British, as we buy goods or services from abroad or we send
money abroad to invest there.
This is the normal supply and demand curve situation: if we increase our imports, the supply of pounds
increases, so the value of the pound starts to fall.
When this happens, a second element might swing into action. Speculators might jump in and sell pounds,
hoping the fall will continue so that they will be able to buy them
back later at a lower rate. Should speculators sell in this way, it will drive the pound even lower.
2. Fixed rates (the regime a country might have adopted):
The government sets the value of the currency in the foreign exchange market. It is usually set well out of
line with the foreign exchange rate that the market would determine there is no point otherwise because
it can simply be left to the market This method is not used much, except by a few communist countries.
Linking the rate to another country fixes it in a kind of way, but as the value of the other countrys
currency alters, so does yours! Malaysia currently links to the US$ which helps it to stabilise its export
and import prices for the USA and set them for other countries in international contracts.
With our floating rate: if the balance of payments deteriorates, the foreign exchange rate worsens
automatically thus making our exports cheaper and imports dearer, so it should automatically correct the
imbalance in time.
With a fixed FX rate: with a fundamental disequilibrium the country could devalue if the IMF will let
it! Secret meetings would normally be held and the government would try to persuade the IMF officials
that there really is a fundamental disequilibrium.
A small digression: what can affect the balance of payments (and hence the value of the currency)? (Note:
you may need this for the exam).
1. Our demand for imports.
2. The demand of others for our exports.
will help the balance of payments by reducing imports and also by releasing goods for export that are no
longer consumed
here.
Generally, this would be a short term response to a sudden crisis the government chooses to squeeze the
economy because too much is going wrong within the ten goals.
The third way of tackling balance of payment problems: supply side management
Changes on the supply side tend to be a long term thing and it is not a tool that can suddenly be wielded
in a crisis to give quick results. It is a theoretical possibility but a nation is usually well advised to keep
trying to push out the supply curve anyway as part of an ongoing process.
If we can increase the long run aggregate supply curve (the vertical part of the SAS curve) it pushes down
prices as well as increases output. This means our exports get absolutely cheaper, so we are able to sell
more, and hence the balance of payments will improve. We also import less because our imports are
relatively dearer now when compared with home produce.
Here we see the SAS curve moving to the right (an increase in the underlaying rate of economic growth)
and gross domestic product increasing.
Other than the initial increase in growth and the improvement in the balance of payments, we would see
benefits for some other goals too: there would be an increase in the
standard of living (as prices fall and as incomes rise); and we can also expect an increase in the number of
people employed.