Briggs Long Term Analysis Aug - 12 - 2016

Briggs
Long Term Strategic Analysis
Fishlake National Forest

Beaver Ranger District
August 12, 2016
Briggs Long Term Strategic Plan

PURPOSE OF THIS ASSESSMENT........................................................................................ 3
INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................... 3
Key Points ..................................................................................................................................................................4
Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................................5
BRIGGS FIRE MANAGEMENT OBJECTIVES AND REQUIREMENTS ............................ 6

Objectives ...................................................................................................................................................................6
Incident Management Objectives .........................................................................................................................6
Incident Management Requirements ...................................................................................................................7
Strategic Objectives .................................................................................................................................................8
Management Requirements ...................................................................................................................................8
Management Action Points ....................................................................................................................................8
FIRE BEHAVIOR.......................................................................................................................... 9
Fire Behavior Summary ..........................................................................................................................................9
Fuel Models .............................................................................................................................................................. 10
Representative Fuel Model and Fire Behavior Photos.................................................................................. 11
Fuel Moisture ........................................................................................................................................................... 14
Live Fuel Index ........................................................................................................................................................ 15
Fire History ............................................................................................................................................................... 16
ECOLOGICAL BENEFITS ........................................................................................................ 16

LONG TERM ANALYSIS .......................................................................................................... 17
Weather Stations..................................................................................................................................................... 17
Seasonal Weather Conditions ............................................................................................................................. 17
Weather Outlooks ................................................................................................................................................... 18
Drought Outlook ..................................................................................................................................................... 21
2016 Fire Season Trends ...................................................................................................................................... 22
Local Seasonal Comparisons .............................................................................................................................. 22
Predicting Significant Fire Growth Events ....................................................................................................... 23
Predicting Season Slowing Events .................................................................................................................... 25
Predicting Fire Season Ending ........................................................................................................................... 26
Fire Season Outlooks ............................................................................................................................................ 29
GEOSPATIAL ANALYSIS......................................................................................................... 31
Fire Growth Analysis ............................................................................................................................................. 31
Fire Spread Probability.......................................................................................................................................... 32
LONG TERM ANALYSIS TEAM MEMBERS ........................................................................ 33

APPENDICES .............................................................................................................................. 34
APPENDIX A............................................................................................................................................................. 34
Fishlake N.F. Central Utah Mountains Fire Danger Rating Area Pocket Card .................................................. 34
APPENDIX B ............................................................................................................................................................. 35
Briggs Area Hunting Summary ................................................................................................................................ 35
APPENDIX C............................................................................................................................................................. 36
Season Ending Term File .......................................................................................................................................... 36

2016 Long Term Strategic Assessment for the Briggs Fire
Purpose of This Assessment
This long-term strategic analysis was developed because the Briggs Fire has the potential to be a
long duration event. It is supplemental to Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS), and
is part of the decision support process. It is intended to gather and summarize predicted fire
behavior and fuel conditions for the potential duration of the Briggs Fire in the 2016 fire season.
This plan serves as a guidebook that combines current available technology, updated geospatial
information, and relevant policy interpretation to assess hazards, values, and probabilities for
strategic planning.
To be effective, this assessment must be reviewed and updated as the fire evolves.
Updating of this plan will be dependent upon fire movement over the duration of the
incident, however it was determined that it should be refreshed every 7 days until the fire
complexity drops. Agency Administrators and Incident Management personnel should
continue to assess the effectiveness of the plan and the actions being employed.
INTRODUCTION
Fire Name
Briggs
Location
Beaver Ranger District

Discovery Date
08/09/2016
Size
18 acres (as of 08/12/16)
Cause
Lightning
Administrative Unit
Fire Number
UT-FIF-006175
Table 1. Incident information for the Briggs Fire
Key Points
The Briggs Fire is 18 acres (8/12/16) in size and was started by lightning. The fire is
burning in a mixed conifer ecosystem, mainly spreading via torching and spotting with
very receptive, critically dry woody fuels (1000hr = 7% moisture).
The fire started within an approved fuel management unit, which was scheduled to be
burned at a later time. The natural start will be used to achieve resource benefits.
The fire is expected to continue burning for the remainder of August and into September.
The Probability of a fire slowing event ranges from 75% in August to 63% in September
based on historic records analysis. Fire season tends to end in the last week of
September or first week of October.
Current ERC-G observations for the Signal Peak RAWs are at about the 84th percentile
level and are projected to move higher in the coming days and weeks.
Precipitation outlooks call for early August to be drier than average, and then become
average for the rest of the fire season. Temperature outlooks show average levels in early
August, then hotter than usual through October. The remainder of the season therefore
has either drier than average or hotter than average weather predicted.
Fishlake National Forest planning direction includes objectives for fire effects on the
ecosystem. This fire is likely to have very positive and desirable effects on aspen
communities, wildlife habitat, and heterogeneity in the fuels.
There are many identified values within the current planning area.
The 2010 Twitchell burn is located north of the fire and can be used to retard fire spread
if needed.
This long term plan is current as of August 13, 2016. To be useful, it should be updated
by Late-August.
Photo 1. The photo was taken from Highway 160 at Manderfield on the evening of 8/12. The
fire grew from approximately 1 acre to 18 acres in about a two to three-hour period.

Executive Summary
The Briggs Fires point of origin was detected on August 9,2016 and was in an area that it is
recommended to allow fire to play its natural role to meet resource objectives where appropriate
and desirable to reduce the risk of uncharacteristic and undesirable wildland fires are
encouraged. Currently the fire is being managed for resource benefit values.
Fire activity continues to be characterized by fire spread from tree torching which is creating a
shower of hot ambers into very dry receptors or 1000-hour fuels. The fire to date is driven by dry
and dead conifer fuels, brush and grasses will start curing soon and will start contributing to fire
spread soon.
Following an average winter and extremely dry spring and early summer fuels are unusually dry
for this time of year. Fire danger indices have been slowly increasing since early June. ERC
readings have reached the 90th percentile at the Signal Peak RAWs three different times from
mid-June to the end of July. The current ERC (8/13) is at the 84th percentile and with the
forecasted weather they will continue to raise well above the 90th percentile and should continue
well into September. The long range weather outlooks call for drying conditions until the end of
August and into September with some chance of monsoonal moisture mixing in. Precipitation
during the month of August has been dryer then normal due to a week monsoonal flow and it is
expected to continue to be below average.
The fire is located within an area where values to be protected are high. At this time, seven active
Management Action Points (M.A.P.s) have been developed with the intent of protection of
public inholdings, provide for public safety and protection of Forest Service improvements and
facilities. If the fire reaches a M.A.P., it will prompt a predefined modification to existing fire
management actions, or trigger the implementation of new strategies and/or tactics. If the
incident conditions defined by the M.A.P. are met, timely implementation is generally critical for
successful accomplishment of the incident objectives.
Based on analysis from Fire Family Plus, it appears likely that the Briggs Fire will receive a
season slowing event by the end of August or first part of September and a season ending event
by October 8th-15th.
Finally, the Long Term Team estimated risk to values in and around the Briggs Fire area. Risk is
defined as the probability multiplied by consequence, and the assessment provides agency
administrators and the incident management team with the necessary information to assist with
mitigating risk while meeting incident objectives. In other words, informs decisions on the
Right Place, Right Time, and Right Resource and focus on Life First to ensure that everyone
goes home safely every day.
The fire activity is still meeting resource objectives. This document in conjunction with the
Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) provides direction and guidance for all levels
of personnel involved with the Briggs fire. Management Action Points (M.A.P.s) provide spatial
and temporal guidelines that should allow for successful management of the fire until it is
declared out.
5

BRIGGS FIRE MANAGEMENT OBJECTIVES AND REQUIREMENTS
Objectives
Strategic objectives and incident management requirements are derived from the Fire
Management Units (FMUs) located within the planning area in WFDSS. General overall
objectives/requirements that are in WFDSS are common to all fires on the Forest. Incident
Objectives were articulated by District resource specialists, Fire Management and Local Line
Officers. In cooperation with partners and stakeholders, the fire is being managed to safely allow
fire to play its natural ecological role and improving the diversity and structure of wildlife habitat
consistent with land management plan resource objectives. Actions will be taken only after
reasonable assurance that the inherent risks are worth the desire outcome. Chosen tactics will
offer the best chance of success and strive for the least exposure to incident responders and
members of the public. The following are the Forest Incident Management Objectives:
Incident Management Objectives
Fire fighter and public safety is a priority on this incident and will be accomplished
using combinations of point protection, direct, and indirect suppression strategies only
after sound risk management processes that weight the probability of success against
human life exposure and costs benefit are addressed and communicated. Closures of
roads, dispersed campsites, campgrounds, trail systems, and other areas of potential
public interface will be considered as necessary.
Ecosystem Restoration- Take opportunities to re-introduce fire in the South Fork
drainage and Shelly Baldy Peak area of the Tushar Mountain Range.
Restore natural fire to maintain desirable vegetative communities and ecosystem

processes.
Use wildland fire to restore or maintain native ecosystems such as declining
Aspen ecosystems.
Allow fire to play its natural role where appropriate and desirable to reduce the
risk of uncharacteristic wildland fires.
Maintain and develop partnerships and relationships with adjacent agency staffs,
cooperators, permittees, and stakeholders with effective and timely dialogs, meetings,
and comprehensive information sharing. Provide regular and timely public information
about the fire to area information outlets. Agency Administrators, Partners, and publics
include but are not limited to:

State of Utah Forester and Fire Management Officers
Livestock Allotment Permittees
Publics in general area of the fire
1. Merchant Valley Summer Homes
2. Eagle Point Ski Resort
3. Elk Meadows Private Landowners
4. Beaver High Adventure Base
Recreation sites near the fire area
1. Big Johns dispersed camping

Jimmy Reed Trail and dispersed camping
Beaver County law enforcement
Beaver County local governments
1. Beaver City
Beaver County Commissioners
Piute County Commissioners
Color Country BLM Office
2.
Provide threatened private and public values protection including residences,

commercial buildings, range and recreation infrastructure, roadways, utilities,
communication sites, Merchant Valley SNOTEL Site, and State lands (Utah State
Lands) from fire damage with the use of combinations of point protection, direct, and
indirect suppression tactics.
Incident Management Requirements
Cove Creek & Tushar Mountain Inventory Roadless Areas
Management emphasis will be to maintain or enhance the primitive or semi-primitive
non-motorized characteristics or values.
No dozer use without prior Agency Administrator approval.
The favored suppression techniques should be those which have the least long-term
impact on the Roadless areas.
Deactivated roads will not be opened without approval from the Agency Administrator.
Protection of property and values:
Provide protection of Merchant Valley Summer Homes if threatened by the fire with
appropriate actions.
Protect recreation sites, range improvements, administration sites where appropriate
taking into account risk and exposure to firefighting personnel.
Smoke Impacts
Monitor and Provide timely smoke related information to publics, stakeholders,

and adjacent land owners.
Plan and implement management actions that fully provide for personnel and
public safety.
Implement strategies and tactics that commit responders only to operations

where and when they can be successful, and under conditions where important
values actually at risk are protected with the least exposure necessary.
Provide regular and timely public information about the fire to area information
outlets.
Provide proper signing that gives the public sufficient warnings as to
management actions associated with the Briggs wildland fire.
Consider area closures and sign as needed due to the threat of fire on roads and
trails.
Strategic Objectives
The Briggs Fire has numerous strategic objectives that are clearly articulated in
the WFDSS decision document.
Management Requirements
The aerial application of fire retardant is allowed for fighting fires. Aerially
delivered fire retardant should not be applied to any mapped aquatic avoidance area,
waterway or buffer. The only exception to using aerially applied fire retardant in
avoidance areas is for the protection of human life or public safety. The Incident
Commander is the decision maker.
Information concerning the Record of Decision for the Aerial Application of Fire
Retardant is available at http://www.fs.fed.us/fire/retardant/index.html
Management Action Points
Management Action Points (M.A.P.s) are specific incident conditions that, when reached,
prompt a predefined modification to existing fire management actions, or trigger the
implementation of new strategies and/or tactics. M.A.P.s are usually spatial, but can also be
temporal or otherwise tied to conditions that cannot be conveyed geographically using points,
lines, or polygons. Examples include levels of fire activity, smoke, weather, fuels, calendar dates,
resource availability or a combination of any of these (and other) elements. If the incident
conditions defined by the M.A.P. are met, timely implementation is generally critical for
successful accomplishment of the incident objectives.
There are 7 MAPs on the Briggs fire currently. All MAPs are currently active and actions are
being managed.
The following are the current active M.A.Ps located on the Briggs Fire:
Active MAP MAP NAME
#
*
1
Bonneville
Cutthroat Trout
Intent of M.A.P
Look for opportunities to limit high severity fire

in the Briggs Creek drainage to aid in
protection of the Bonneville Cutthroat Trout.
Boseman
Ridge
Evaluate and take action as needed to protect

the general public in the area, and the Blue
Lake irrigation infrastructure.
Beaver Canyon
Assessment
Evaluate, prioritize and assess the possible

needed actions to protect the values at risk,
(protection plans) and consider the possible
need to expand area closure.

*
Big John's
Eagle Point
Implement implementation protection plans

developed in MAP 3, and possible evacuation
plans.
Merchant
Valley
Trigger Implementation of protection plans and

possible evacuations.
Beaver Canyon
Implementation
Trigger Implementation of protection plans and

possible evacuations developed in MAP 3.
Forest
Boundary
Identify and assess the possible impacts to

values at risk.
Table 2 - Shows the Briggs Fire Management Actions Points, with the active M.A.P.s identified
with an asterisk (WFDSS Decision 8/11/16).
FIRE BEHAVIOR
Fire Behavior Summary
The Briggs Fire started in a mixed conifer forest and spread through the timber litter, dead and
down material, and timber overstory. Fire spread has taken place mainly in the heavy dead and
down fuels and when tree torching occurs it creates a shower of hot embers into very dry and
receptors of 100 and 1000-hour fuels. Heavy dead and down logs are consuming along the
ground with moderate spread rates each day. Short range spotting has been fairly constant.
There is very active spread at the head of the fire, and moderate fire spread on the flanks.
Backing fire at the heel is smoldering and creeping.
FUELS
The spread of the Briggs Fire has followed the distribution of fuels. Spruce-fir forest has been
receptive to spot fires, and heavy fuel loading has led to torching and some crown runs. With
strong winds the fire has jumped between fingers of conifers and with wind and slope alignment
some wind driven crown runs have occurred. Aspen forest has not been carrying fire spread at
this time, however aspen-conifer mix has burned slowly with mainly dead and down logs
involved. Mountain meadows at higher elevations are too green to burn. These fuels will likely
never become available unless they are frost-killed and there is a large proportion of grass
included.
Fuel Models
For fire spread prediction using the Rothermel model (Behave) the best fuel model for conifers is
TL2 (183). The mountain meadows are GR2 (102), Sage and Snow Berry GS1(121). These are
over-predicting fire spread and must be adjusted for live fuel moistures. Aspen forests are TU1
(161).
Vegetation
Scott & Burgan Local Moisture Sampling Landscape Calibration Notes
Type
Fuel Models
Timber
TU1, TU5, and

TL3
Grass/Sage
GS 1&2, and
GR2,
Spruce-fir mixed conifer

forest has canopy all the way
to the ground and torches
easily, generating spots. Pure
aspen is not carrying fire at
this time. Mixed conifer-aspen
areas are spreading very
slowly.
The grass and shrub land fuels
are about cured and barely
carrying fire. Higher
elevation meadows are green
and serve as a barrier to
surface spread.
Dead fuel moisture

1000 hr. fuels Signal Peak
8/13: 1-hour 3%
RAWs Location
10-hour 4%
100-hour 6%
1000-hour 7%
1000 hour fuels at 10% is

considered a local threshold for
large fire growth. The current
percentage is well under that
threshold.
Table 3 -Shows fuel types and approximate moisture percentages within the fire area.
The following is the current 1000 hour fuels seasonal record for 2016. Readings at the Signal
Peak RAWS. The chart will show the 2016 moisture trend.
10
Figure 3. Current 1000 hr fuels are running at 7% on 8/13 and projected to drop with the
forecasted hot, dry weather for the next two weeks.
Representative Fuel Model and Fire Behavior Photos
The following photos are representative of the fuel models and fire behavior photo
Photo 2. TL3 or 183 conifer fuels with branches all the way to the ground.
11
Photo 3. TU1 161 Aspen stand with some light conifer encroachment.
Photo 4. The photo is showing the fire ignition point and fire area on 8/12. The area has mixed
conifer, aspen and open meadows stands intermixed.
12
Photo 5. Sparse fuels within the open meadows (GR 1 & 2) only carries fire in the fall when the
grass become dormant due to frost kill sometime in October. The fuels include a large
proportion of bare soil with some grasses and forbs
Photo 6. Shows the fire burning late the afternoon of 8/12. The fire was able to heat and with
the northern wind component and slope alignment there was a short 18 acre run. The fire only
burned in the mixed conifer stands that have extremely dry fuels.
13
Photo 7. Aerial shot of the fire on the late afternoon of 8/12.

Fuel Moisture
Live fuel moistures are 1/4 to 1/3 cured for conifers, and nearly fully green for shrubs and grass.
Thousand-hour fuels are critically dry, and were below the local threshold of 10% moisture
according to sampling. The Signal Peak RAWs indicate that the fuels dropped below the 10th
percentile at 7%. In 2004 the general fire season weather matched up to the current year. If the
weather pattern holds true to this year it indicates that there will be a hot drying pattern for the
next two weeks that will drop the fuel moisture level to below the 10th percentile as indicated
below.
Figure 4. Signal Peak RAWs Station 1000-hour Fuel Trend. A comparative year of 2004 was
overlaid and indicates that fuels could stay dry into mid-October when the season ending event.
14

Live Fuel Index
The Live Fuel Index (LFI) is a bioclimatic index of plant activity and it relates to the state of live
vegetation. The Live Fuel Index is calculated as the product of three indicators relating to the
main drivers of plant activity: temperature, moisture, and light. It represents photosynthetic
functioning and can show events like green up and senescence of foliage as well as curing of
herbaceous fuels. The following graph shows the index for the Signal Peak RAWs, which is
representative of the Briggs Fire area.
In the Tushar Mountain range, snowpack and precipitation are sufficient to maintain greenness in
much of the vegetation types throughout the summer. The fuels started the green-up process
started in April and peaked in June. Summer monsoon moisture can sometimes lead to plants
ramping up photosynthesis later in the summer. When fall frost occurs, the LFI drops
precipitously the first of October. If the weather is dry and high winds occur, this can lead to
rapid fire spread in fuels that are usually not receptive.
The 2016 LFI shows 2016 season is running normal for the summer (according to the Signal
Peak RAWs).
Figure 5. Signal Peak RAWs station Live Fuel Index with 2016 in black.
15

Fire History
The landscape of the Briggs Fire area shows the effects of some large fires that have burned in
the past 25 years. Within these perimeters, the current vegetation is a mixture of early and late
succession vegetation types. For the most part, forested areas had high levels of canopy
mortality. This is the typical fire regime, and it serves to break up the continuity of forest fuels
and interrupt the spread of subsequent fires.
In the Briggs Fire area, there are many past fire scars. The most notable is the large 2010
Twitchell Fire.
Figure 7. Fire History for the Briggs Fire area

ECOLOGICAL BENEFITS
The Fishlake National Forest manages fire for protection of life, property, and natural resource
values, and also for ecological benefits when risk assessment indicates that is appropriate to do
so. Fire plays an important role in plant and animal diversity, wildlife habitat, watershed
function, and nutrient cycling. Without fire, late-succession vegetation types eventually
dominate and biomass accumulates and the landscape becomes less heterogeneous and diverse.
When lightning ignites a fire, the forest has the opportunity to manage all or part of the fire by
monitoring the spread rather than suppressing it.
16

LONG TERM ANALYSIS
Weather Stations
The Briggs Fire is located in Fire Weather Zone UTZ493. The Signal Peak RAWs is located
east of the fire, at an elevation similar to the fire area. It has been in service for decades and
gives a very useful climatic history for comparison with historic weather.
Figure 8. The Signal Peak RAWs is at 8750 ft. elevation and 30 miles away from the fire.
Seasonal Weather Conditions
Central Utah, Beaver River Basin received about 103% snowpack, followed by an unusually dry
May and June. July proved to be both hot and dry, which has led to extremely available dead
fuels and large fire activity throughout the last half of the month, especially over eastern and
northern Great Basin. This may be a reflection, at least in part, of the rapid transition from strong
El Nio/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions into neutral and likely La Nia conditions by
fall.
For August, significant wildland fire potential will continue to be focused in the finer fuel and
brush areas of California and the Great Basin with some expansion into Oregon, Montana and
Wyoming. Primary concerns continue to focus on the abundant fine fuels and their ability to
carry fires more effectively than in a typical year. By the end of July, ERCs across most areas
were near or above the 90th percentile. A weak, inconsistent monsoon is expected to continue
through August, meandering across the southern half of the Great Basin. Significant fire
potential should be above normal across most central and northern areas.
17
Figure 9. Central Utah has experienced Very Low percentages of normal precipitation over
the past 30 days. Uhy// (select Time Range: Today and past 30 days, Product: Percent of
Normal, Location: State & Utah).
Weather Outlooks
The week starts on a dry and warmer note, with high temps back into the middle and upper
80s in the fire area. Other than the potential for a chance of rain in the middle of the week, dry
and warm conditions will dominate the next seven days.
Outlooks for the next 6-10 days from the National Weather Service for the US predict
temperatures close to the historical averages and > 33% probability of less than average
precipitation. For the 8-14 Day Outlook the temperature has a > 33% potential to be above
normal, and the precipitation is expected to remain below average.
18
Figure 10. National 6-10 Day precipitation and temperature outlooks. Source:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/
Figure 11. The 8-14 Day forecast for temperature and precipitation. Source:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/
19

Outlooks for the next 30 days indicate 50% probability that the month of August will be hotter
than average. This holds for the three months August-October according to the July 21
information. Precipitation outlooks for August and into October currently show equal chances
for a normal level of rain.
Figure 12. Both the 30-day and 90-day Predictive Services Outlooks for temperature show a
50% probability of being above normal in the Briggs Fire area. The 90-day outlook has not been
updated since July 21. Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/
Figure 13. Both the 30-day and 90-day Predictive Services Outlooks for Precipitation indicate
Equal Chances of wetter or drier conditions in the Briggs Fire area. The 90-day forecast is not
yet updated from July 21. Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/
20
Drought Outlook
The July 28 drought map for the U.S. West showed 72% of the West in some stage of
abnormally dry to drought conditions. Dry conditions in Utah track across the central tier of the
state, and include the area of the Briggs Fire.
Figure 14. June 28 Data from the United States Drought Monitor.
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/home/regionaldroughtmonitor.aspx?west
Figure 15. The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook tendency shows little change in the Briggs fire
area through October. Source:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdo_summary.php
21

2016 Fire Season Trends
Energy Release Component (ERC) is an index related to the potential energy of a fire at the
flaming front and is generated from weather and fuels inputs. It is considered a good measure
for seasonal dryness trends in large fuels, making this a good indicator for fire potential on the
Briggs Fire. On the Fishlake National Forest, ERC is most often used with Fuel Models G.
Figure 16. Average, minimum, and maximum ERC values for the Signal Peak RAWs for the
period 2000 -2016 with the current year overlain.
At the Signal Peak Station, the ERC value has bumped the 90th percentile level throughout the
month of July in 2016 when compared to the past 20 years of observations. The 90th percentile is
an indication of high fire danger. Current reading shows the ERC level at the 88th percentile
which resulted from a recent monsoonal storm on the fire. Forecasted weather indicates that the
fire area will have hot dry conditions for the next two weeks.
Local Seasonal Comparisons
This fire seasons June and July ERC and 1000-Hour Fuel Moisture records from the Signal
Peak RAWs were compared to each of the past 16 years to elucidate potential patterns that may
inform outcomes for 2016. In 2004 the general fire season weather matched up to the current
22

year. If the weather pattern holds true to this year it indicates that there will be a hot drying
pattern for the next two weeks that will raise the ERC level to above the 90th percentile. On
approximately August 18th it shows that there will be another monsoonal moisture event that will
again drop the ERC level back to the average mark. All indication shows that after that
monsoonal event the area will again become hot and dry for the month of September.
2004 vs. 2016
Figure 17. 2016 ERC compared to reference year of 2004 and fire history.
Predicting Significant Fire Growth Events
Fire spread events on the Fishlake National Forest are associated with both atmospheric
conditions and fuels availability. Either condition is favorable for large fire spread but a
combination of the two leads too extreme blow up events. The typical scenario when this
occurs is when a very strong cold front passes through in the late summer/fall during drought
years. The famous Yellowstone fires of 1988 are an example of this. Thunderstorm-related
gusts can also cause short blow ups when fuels are highly receptive.
23

Criteria for fires driven by atmospheric conditions are included in the Central Utah Mountains
Fire Danger Rating Area Pocket Card (see Appendix A). For this analysis, they were fitted to
the Signal Peak RAWs 17-year record.
Fishlake N.F. Central Utah Mountains Danger Rating Area

Pocket Card Atmospheric Large Fire Growth Criteria:
Maximum Daily Temperature of 85 or Greater (75th

Percentile)
Daily Max Wind Speed of 10 mph or higher (20 ft)
Daily Minimum RH less than 20% (90th Percentile)
1000 hr fuel moisture of 10 or less
Haines of 5 or 6
Criteria for large fire growth that is driven by fuels availability are particularly meaningful for
timber fuels. When dead fuels (especially 1000 hr fuels) are dry enough, even average weather
can keep fires spreading via torching and spotting.
Using the 20-year record of the Signal Peak RAWs, the proportion of two-week periods during
the fire season that have had these conditions were tallied and used to show an estimate of large
fire growth event probability for the Briggs Fire season.
Figure 18. The proportion of years (2000-2015) that have had at least one large fire growth
event meeting the specified criteria identified in the Central Utah Mountain Pocket Card.
24

Based on the graph above, August will continue to have large fire growth events driven by
weather. Often a lack of fuel dryness limits the impact of these events however. The
probability of very dry fuels is quite variable. When these conditions are in place, however, they
have a large impact on fire events on the fire area.
Predicting Season Slowing Events
Based on consultation with local fire managers with many years of experience, a useful threshold
for a fire slowing event was determined to be at least 1/4 inch of rain in a one-day period. Such
a factor should lead the fire to be quiet for 2 4 days.
The Signal Peak RAWS history for 2000-2015 was queried for the number of times this has
occurred in two-week periods over the fire season.
Fire Slowing Criteria - Signal Peak RAWS
At least inch of total precipitation for a one-day

period
The resulting bar graph shows a high probability season ending events occurring in the months
of July, August, and September. It is typical for monsoonal storms to come through and bring
rain for a few days. Afterward, the fuels usually dry out and ERCs recover for a few weeks.
This could represent an Indian Summer factor. Usually it is cold enough in late October and
days are short enough that fire danger is already low due to other factors.
25
Figure 19. The proportion of years (2000-2015) that have had at least one fire slowing day
meeting the fire slowing criteria at the Signal Peak RAWs.
Predicting Fire Season Ending
It is common across the western US to generate a waiting time graph for season end using the
date when ERC drops below an identified percentile or a moisture trigger. Because of the
bimodal fire season, a waiting time graph is more difficult to produce. In this part of the region,
ERC may not fall off until late in the season with warm days and dry fuels, so season end is more
of a reflection of shortening day lengths and lowering sun angles, coupled with good overnight
relative humidity recovery and cool temperatures. Local experts point too mid to late October for
season end. Fire season in dry years can go into mid-November. Campfires, prescribed fires, or
other established fires could become large fires later in the fall with frontal passage but are of
short duration. Historical fire data for Beaver District shows that fire occurrence significantly
declines after September, signaling a season slowing effect, and only 3% of total fires from 2000
to 2015 occur after September, which indicates that the probability of a season ending event is
sometime the end of September or mid-October which confirmed with the season ending event.
26
Figure 20: Historical Beaver District fire analysis by months.

A study of all fire occurrences was overlaid with historical ERC data indicated that fires did not
occur below an ERC of 46 (30 percentile). Consultation with local fire personnel, review of all
fire events, and consideration of the available fuels on this fire indicates that an ERC index of 46
(30th percentile) for Five days or longer may represent a season ending event. Fire Family Plus
was used to locate fire events in question and used to determine the probability and date of the
season ending event.
Season Ending Criteria:
The daily ERC-G value drops below the 30th Percentile and does not
rise above that level for 5 days.
The following chart shows the probability and dates of the fire season ending event.
27

Probability Percentage
0.25
0.50
0.75
0.90
0.99
Date
August 07
September 08
October 06
October 29
December 02
Table 4 shows the probability of a season ending event using the Signal Peak RAWS station
data.
Figure 21. Probability of fire season ending criteria occurring in two-week periods over the
remainder of the 2016 fire season based on 16 years of records.
28
Fire Season Outlooks

Predictive Services at the Great Basin and national levels has developed the following outlook
products using weather and climate data. The 7-Day Significant Fire Potential is developed
using fire history data that has correlated certain weather and fuels indices with the probability of
fires. Fire occurrence is recorded by start date.
Figure 22. Forecast for August 6 -13 from the National Predictive Services Program of the 7Day Significant Fire Potential. Source: http://psgeodata.fs.fed.us/Dynamic_Map/index.html
http://psgeodata.fs.fed.us/forecast/#/outlooks?forecastDay=2015-05-04&forecastInView=201505-04&state=forecast&gaccId=12
Significant wildland fire potential is expected to continue above normal for the northern portions
of the Great Basin, including northern Utah, northern Nevada and Idaho in August and return too
normal in September.
The 30-day and 90-day outlooks for August, September, and October call for hot temperatures
and normal precipitation for the area of the Briggs Fire. Note that typical August and September
rainfall is not substantial, but does often include an August or early September storm.
29

Nevertheless, above normal fire potential will likely continue into September as fall systems
bring stronger winds to the area.
By the end of July, ERCs across most areas were near or above the 90th percentile. The Briggs
fire was well above the 90th percentile through most of July. Grasses and finer fuels in lower
elevations cured and live fuel moisture was below normal in most areas and near record dry
levels in some areas. Fire activity steadily picked up during the month, with large fires occurring
in Utah and Nevada early in the month and in southern Idaho and western Wyoming by the latter
half of the month.
A weak, inconsistent monsoon is expected to continue through August, meandering across the
southern half of the Great Basin. Temperatures are expected to be near normal for August.
Significant fire potential should be above normal across most central and northern areas.
Climate outlooks for September into October indicate a prolonged warm and dry period for most
of the Great Basin. This should maintain above normal significant fire potential going into
September. However, even above normal warmth and dryness cannot overcome the longer nights
and sharply decreased lightning activity through September. For this reason, expect any above
normal fire activity at the start of September to trend toward normal during the latter half of
September.
Cold front passage can be a concern during late summer and early fall and can have a dramatic
effect on fire behavior. These are often the cause of late season escaped campfires and prescribed
fires, however these are short duration events (1-2 days).
30

Figure 23. Above to Normal chances for significant wildland fire potential are expected for
most of the Great Basin during the month of August.
Figure 24. Forecasted increasing (from above normal) significant fire potential is expected for
the three-month period from August to October. Source:
http://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/outlooks.htm
GEOSPATIAL ANALYSIS
Tools used in this analysis include the WFDSS - Near Term Fire Behavior Analysis (NTFB) and
Fire Spread Probability (FSPro). Expert opinion was used in selecting inputs for these tools,
thanks to advice from local experts. Note that there is a lot of variability in natural systems that
cannot be accounted for with computerized databases. There are also assumptions within the fire
spread models that also need to be considered.
LANDFIRE 2012 data from the Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools
Project was used as the base using the Scott and Burgan (2005) 40 fuel models and adjustments
were made according to site specific conditions.
Fire Growth Analysis
Near Term Fire Behavior (NTFB) is used to project perimeter growth over 1-7 day periods. The
length of useful analysis is limited by weather forecast accuracy. Geospatial fuel moisture,
31

topography, fuels, and canopy characteristics are used with hourly inputs for weather conditions
to simulate fire spread. The results consist of perimeters designated by arrival time for the userselected burn periods.
While NTFB is very useful to determine the likely fire growth, there are several limitations.
Ongoing suppression actions are difficult to incorporate. Major wind or precipitation events may
occur and alter the predicted spread rates. NTFB does not simulate fire spread through rolling
material and does not simulate diurnal, terrain-influenced winds.
Figure 25. Three-day NTFB growth projection for the Briggs Fire (August 13th 15th)
Fire Spread Probability

FSPro is a component of the WFDSS geospatial fire analysis package that focuses on the
probability of fire reaching each pixel on the model. It uses an ensemble of hundreds to
thousands of spatial Behave simulations to derive a raster probability surface for fire spread.
Weather and winds for FSPro are based on historic data rather than forecasts, so longer periods
(two weeks in this case) can be investigated. The first few days of the simulation can incorporate
forecasted weather if desired. For the Briggs Fire, five days of forecast data were used.
The colored burn probabilities do not represent fire perimeters; rather, they are probability zones.
No suppression actions can be incorporated into this long-duration analysis, so the results are a
free-burning scenario.
The August 13 - 19 FSPro map is pictured below. This FSPro simulation depicts probable fire
spread over the next 7 days beginning 8/13. This run assumes the entire perimeter has active fire.
No suppression activities modeled. FSPro is a probability model and shows if any identified
values will be affected within the next week.
32
Figure 26. FSPro 7 Day Probability Analysis August 13 - 19
CONCLUSION
As of August 13th the Briggs Fire has only grown 18 acres since the ignition date on August 9th.
Fire activity should become more active the next three to five days with the forecasted weather
of hot, dry weather conditions that are common to this area in August. The fire activity will be
allowed to play its natural ecological role of ecosystem restoration providing the fire behavior
does not conflict with management objectives and requirements. This document in conjunction
with the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) provides direction and guidance for
all levels of personnel involved with the Briggs fire. Management Action Points (M.A.P.s)
provide spatial and temporal guidelines that should allow for successful management of the fire
until it is declared out. The 7 day FSPro analysis (Fig.26) shows a 80 to 100 % probability of the
fire spread hitting the first MAP line (MAP 1), which will activate the mitigation measures.
Long Term Analysis Team Members

Kim Soper SOPL
Cory Norman SOPL (t)
33
Appendices
APPENDIX A
Fishlake N.F. Central Utah Mountains Fire Danger Rating Area Pocket Card
34
APPENDIX B
Briggs Fire Area Hunting Summary
General Season Deer

Hunt #
DB-1500
DB-1530
DB-1560
DB-1769
Species
Buck deer
Buck deer
Buck deer
Buck deer
Type
General Season
General Season
General Season
Dedicated Hunter Program
Weapon
Archery
Any legal weapon
Muzzleloader
Multi-Season
Open
08-20
10-22
09-28
All Above
Close
09-16
10-30
10-06
All Above
General Season Elk

Hunt #
Species
Cow/Spike
bull
Spike bull elk
Spike bull elk
Type
Weapon
Open
Close
General Season
Archery
08-20
09-16
General Season
General Season
Any legal weapon

Muzzleloader
10-08
11-02
10-20
11-20
Open
08-20
09-17
11-12
09-26
All above
Close
09-16
09-25
11-20
10-07
All above
Open
10-08
11-21
12-16
Close
10-31
12-15
01-14
Open
08-20
10-29
Close
09-26
11-17
Open
09-10
09-26
Close
09-25
10-15
Limited Entry Elk

Hunt #
EB-3000
EB-3024
EB-3025
EB-3077
EB-3102
Species
Bull elk
Bull elk
Bull elk
Bull elk
Bull elk
Type
Limited-entry
Limited-entry
Limited-entry
Limited-entry
Limited-entry
Weapon
Archery
Any legal weapon
Any legal weapon
Muzzleloader
Multi-season
Antlerless Elk
Hunt #
EB-1000
EA-1002
EA-1001
Species
Antlerless elk
Antlerless elk
Antlerless elk
Type
Weapon
Any legal weapon
Any legal weapon
Any legal weapon
Black Bear
Hunt #
Species
Type
Weapon
BR-7200
Black bear
Limited-entry
Any legal weapon
Once in a lifetime
Hunt #
GO-6800
Go-6801
35
Species
Mtn. Goat
Mtn. Goat
Type
Once-in-a-lifetime
Once-in-a-lifetime
Weapon
Any legal weapon
Any legal weapon
APPENDIX C
Season Ending Term File
36
37

Briggs Long Term Analysis Aug - 12 - 2016

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Briggs

Long Term Strategic Analysis

Fishlake National Forest

Briggs Long Term Strategic Plan

BRIGGS FIRE MANAGEMENT OBJECTIVES AND REQUIREMENTS ............................ 6

ECOLOGICAL BENEFITS ........................................................................................................ 16

LONG TERM ANALYSIS TEAM MEMBERS ........................................................................ 33

Briggs Long Term Strategic Plan

Beaver Ranger District

18 acres (as of 08/12/16)

Fishlake National Forest

Table 1. Incident information for the Briggs Fire

Briggs Long Term Strategic Plan

Briggs Long Term Strategic Plan

Briggs Long Term Strategic Plan

Restore natural fire to maintain desirable vegetative communities and ecosystem

Fishlake National Forest

Briggs Long Term Strategic Plan

Provide threatened private and public values protection including residences,

Monitor and Provide timely smoke related information to publics, stakeholders,

Implement strategies and tactics that commit responders only to operations

Briggs Long Term Strategic Plan

Look for opportunities to limit high severity fire

Evaluate and take action as needed to protect

Evaluate, prioritize and assess the possible

Briggs Long Term Strategic Plan

Implement implementation protection plans

Trigger Implementation of protection plans and

Trigger Implementation of protection plans and

Identify and assess the possible impacts to

Briggs Long Term Strategic Plan

TU1, TU5, and

Spruce-fir mixed conifer

Dead fuel moisture

1000 hour fuels at 10% is

Briggs Long Term Strategic Plan

Briggs Long Term Strategic Plan

Briggs Long Term Strategic Plan

Briggs Long Term Strategic Plan

Photo 7. Aerial shot of the fire on the late afternoon of 8/12.

Briggs Long Term Strategic Plan

Briggs Long Term Strategic Plan

Figure 7. Fire History for the Briggs Fire area

Briggs Long Term Strategic Plan

Briggs Long Term Strategic Plan

Briggs Long Term Strategic Plan

Briggs Long Term Strategic Plan

Briggs Long Term Strategic Plan

Briggs Long Term Strategic Plan

Briggs Long Term Strategic Plan

Briggs Long Term Strategic Plan

Fishlake N.F. Central Utah Mountains Danger Rating Area

Maximum Daily Temperature of 85 or Greater (75th

Briggs Long Term Strategic Plan

Fire Slowing Criteria - Signal Peak RAWS

At least inch of total precipitation for a one-day

Briggs Long Term Strategic Plan

Briggs Long Term Strategic Plan

Figure 20: Historical Beaver District fire analysis by months.

Briggs Long Term Strategic Plan

Briggs Long Term Strategic Plan

Fire Season Outlooks

Briggs Long Term Strategic Plan