GoldmanSachscobots

GoldmanSachshasreleasedaseriesofresearchreportsin2016centeredonTheFactoryoftheFuture.
Theserieswhichtheycall'ProfilesinInnovation'examinessixtechnologiesGSbelieveisdriving
transition,fromCobotsto3DprintingtoVirtualandAugmentedRealitytotheInternetofThings,
andhowthesetechnologiescouldyieldmorethanUS$500billionofcostsavings.
AspartoftheGSteam'sinvestigationstheyhostedaFactoryoftheFuturefieldtripforinvestorsat
AutomaticatradefairinMunich,GermanyonJune25,2016.Theysubsequentlyprovidedasynopsis
oftheirkeyobservations.
HerearethetoptakeawaysfromGS'sfieldAutomaticatriprelatedtoRobots.
UniversalRobots

UniversalRobotscobotshaveapaybackof6monthsandoverallinstallationcostsat<2xcost
ofrobotsvs.>3xfortraditionalrobots.CheapestURcobotcostsjust20k.

UniversalRobotsbelievesitssalesnetwork,brandandopensourcestrategywillbeimportant
tolockinandoutgrowthecobotmarket.

Amidstitsownimpressivegrowth,UniversalRobotsispreparingfortoughercompetition.

UniversalRobots(UR),Teradynesmarketleadingcollaborativerobotsbusiness,hostedabooth
tour.Keytakeawayswere:
1.

Withthecobotmarketgrowing>50%painrecentyears,Teradyne(ownerofUR)istargeting
$90millionto$100millioninrevenuesforUniversalRobotsfor2016.URbelievesthisfast
growthisunlikelytohitcapacityconstraintsasitscurrentDenmarkbasedmanufacturingset
upcangenerate$500millioninrevenueswithouttheneedforsignificantfactorycap
expenditure.

2.

ThecustomerbaseforUniversalRobotsconsistslargelyofSMEenterprisesinawiderange
ofendmarkets.Asaresult,itsmethodtomarketandeaseofuseiskeytoachievingrapid
organicgrowth.Itusesdistributors(whichpickupservicingmargininreturnforbroad
dissemination)andauserfriendlysetup,eliminatingtheneedforthirdpartyengineersto
programtherobot.

3.

UniversalRobotsbelievesthatitstechnologyis23yearsaheadofcompetitors(15other
boothsatthefairwereusingURcobots),howeveritisawarethatthecompetitionis
increasingsignificantly.LeveragingTeradynesbalancesheettheybelieveactingquicklyand
theuseoftheiropensourceplatform(meaningthatawiderangeofcomponentsareeasyto
develop,describedasanAppstoreapproach)iskeytodominatingthisquicklyevolving
market.

Yaskawa

CobotcompetitionispickingupasYaskawaenteredtheraceandFiatChryslersComauare
pioneeringsolutionstoconcernsaboutspeed.

Yaskawademonstratedfiveofitsnewproductlaunches,underpinningourgrowth
expectationsandmiximprovementasitincreasesappealingeneralindustry.

YaskawahostedaboothtourandinterviewwithitsEUoperationsmanagement.GoldmanSachs,who
saidtheycameawaywithagreatdealofconfidenceinYaskawasproductmixalsoofferedthe
followingkeytakeaways:
Thecompanyexhibitedsomebrandnewproducts:

1.

2.

10kgpayloadcollaborativerobots
7axisrobotswiththenewestspotweldinggunandsmaller,lowpayload
robotsidealforgeneralindustry.
Motologixsoftware(bridgingmachinecommunicationbetweencontrollers
andPLCs)andVIPA(acquiredGermanPLCtechnology).

Lookingatcollaborativerobotsspecifically,GSbelievethecompanyhasstrongpositioningas
oneoftheBigFourroboticscompany.Theybelievepricingisreasonableat38,000for
10kgweighthandling,withsensorsimplementedinallaxisandeasyteachingsystem.Given
thatmanystartupcompanieswereintroducingcobotswith,intheGSteamsopinion,inferior
qualityandyetsimilarpricing(2040,000perunit),GSfeltYaskawaiswellpositionedto
capturethegrowthofthecobotmarket.
Yaskawasold25,000robotsin2015;whichGSestimatethatYaskawahascirca10%market
share(notethesewillbemainlypremiumrobots),bringingYaskawastotalinstalledbaseto
350k.

OthergeneralobservationsbytheGoldmanSachsteam

Despitetheabsenceofamajorglobalroboticsplayer,theUS(whereroboticsisgrowing
doubledigit)isstillattheforefrontinautomation,bydevelopingtheembeddedtechnologies
required.

Bewareofthebuzzwords:Mostnotably,AIandcloudrobotics.A3thinksitmighttake
decadestogetcommercializableAIproducts.

Machinevisionisa>$2billionmarket,despiteinacurrentdownturn,accordingtothe
AssociationforAdvancingAutomation(A3).

Flexibilityandefficiencyarecrucialinleadingautosfactories,asBMWproducesacarin44
hourswithnotwolikelytobethesameeachday.

TheaverageageofworkersinBMWsWeltfactoryisrising(43vs.40afewyearsago)as
newtechnologies,suchasexoskeletons,areincreasingthelongevityofemployees.