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Initiating Coverage

January 11, 2013

Mahindra Lifespace Developers (GESCOR)

Rating Matrix
Rating

Buy

Target

| 505

Target Period

12-15 months

Potential Upside

28%

| 394

Quality player at an attractive valuation

YoY Growth (%) (consolidated)


(YoY Growth)
Net Sales
EBITDA
Net Profit
EPS (Rs)

FY12
14.6
8.5
10.1
10.1

FY13E
4.4
5.9
(11.5)
(11.5)

FY14E
24.9
34.7
11.8
11.8

FY15E
24.7
38.7
57.6
57.6

FY14E
13.7
17.5
8.0
1.2
8.9
12.1

FY15E
8.7
11.1
5.6
1.1
12.7
16.3

Valuation Summary (consolidated)


FY12
13.5
17.3
11.2
1.4
10.3
9.5

P/E
Target P/E
EV / EBITDA
P/BV
RoNW
RoCE

FY13E
15.3
19.6
10.9
1.3
8.5
9.1

Stock Data
Bloomberg/Reuters Code
Sensex
Average volumes
Market Cap (| crore)
52 week H/L

MLIFE IN / MALD.NS
19,663.6
44,960.0
1,633.7
435 / 250

Equity Capital (| crore)


Promoter's Stake (%)
FII Holding (%)
DII Holding (%)

40.8
51.1
26.6
5.2

Comparative return matrix (%)


Return %
Mahindra Lifespace De
DLF
Oberoi Realty
Sobha Developers

1M
(2.8)
5.3
(3.3)
5.6

3M
0.3
9.7
9.5
2.8

6M
21.0
8.9
19.5
17.6

12M
60.9
26.5
32.1
87.2

Residential portfolio New launches to drive sales volume


MLDL holds a total land bank of 22.2 mn sq ft as on Q2FY13 (including
14.1 mn sq ft in Chennai through its subsidiaries- (MITL & MRDL). Out of
this, ongoing projects contribute 4.0 mn sq ft, majority of which has been
sold. Going ahead, we anticipate forthcoming projects of 6.1 mn sq ft
would pick up its sales volume from 1.2 mn sq ft in FY12 to 2.1 mn sq ft in
FY15E. Overall, the residential portfolio contributes 70.2% to our
valuation and 68.7% to our consolidated revenues estimates in FY15.

SEZ well positioned portfolio in every stage of SEZ


Being the first private player in Chennai SEZ development of 1550 acres,
MLDL is progressing very well on Jaipur SEZ development and
acquisition of North Chennai integrated development (acquired ~500
acres of land out of total 750 acres). We also like MLDLs positioning of its
SEZ portfolio. With Chennai SEZ in the maturity & monetisation stage,
Jaipur in expansion stage and North Chennai in early stage, MLDL has
balanced its future growth and financial leverage very well.

Management track record & better leverage provides us comfort


We also like MLDL due to its strong parental advantage with exposure
across different vertical and its comfortable leverage. While it currently
sits on a net cash of | 86.6 crore at standalone level, its net debt to equity
on consolidated basis stands at 0.5x, which is better than its peers.

At 0.6x its NAV, valuations are attractive

Price movement
6,300

480

5,550

400

4,800

320

4,050

240

3,300

160

2,550
1,800
Jan-12

Mahindra Lifespace Developers (MLDL) is one of the leading real estate


developers with a presence in SEZ and residential development. Given
the strong residential portfolio contributing 70.2% to our valuation, well
positioned SEZ portfolio balancing the growth and leverage, strong
parental advantage and better financial position, we initiate coverage on
MLDL with a BUY recommendation with a target price of | 505 (0.7x
FY14E potential NAV).

80
Apr-12

Jul-12

Price (R.H.S)

Oct-12

Jan-13

Nifty (L.H.S)

Analysts name
Deepak Purswani, CFA
deepak.purswani@icicisecurities.com
Bhupendra Tiwary
bhupendra.tiwary@icicisecurities.com

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

At the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.6x its FY14E potential NAV and 1.2x
FY14E P/BV. Considering the quality of management and comfortable
leverage position, we believe current valuations are attractive. We are
initiating coverage on MLDL with a BUY recommendation with a target
price of | 505 (0.7x FY14E potential NAV).
Exhibit 1: Financial metrics (consolidated)
(Year-end March)
Net Sales (| crore)
EBITDA (| crore)
Net Profit (| crore)
EPS (|)
P/E (x)
Price / Book (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
RoCE (%)
RoE (%)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

FY11
611.9
176.4
108.2
26.5
14.9
1.5
11.0
9.9
10.2

FY12
701.3
191.3
119.1
29.2
13.5
1.4
11.2
9.5
10.3

FY13E
732.4
202.7
105.3
25.8
15.3
1.3
10.9
9.1
8.5

FY14E
914.4
273.1
117.7
28.8
13.7
1.2
8.0
12.1
8.9

FY15E
1,140.5
378.8
185.6
45.4
8.7
1.1
5.6
16.3
12.7

Company background

Shareholding pattern (Q2FY13)


Shareholder

Holding (%)

Promoter

51.1

FII

26.6

DII

Mahindra Lifespace Developers (MLDL) is a leading real estate developer


with a presence in SEZ & DTA development and the residential segment.
Apart from 12.2 million (mn) square feet (sq ft) of land bank (including
forthcoming) and ongoing projects of 4.0 million sq ft, MLDL has
successfully set up the Chennai SEZ aggregating 1550 acres. MIDLs
Jaipur SEZ aggregating ~3000 acres is also progressing very well. In the
residential space, MLDL has so far completed 7.4 mn sq ft of
development across Mumbai (3.1 mn sq ft), NCR (~2 mn sq ft), Pune
(~1.6 mn sq ft), Chennai and Bengaluru. The company also has
forthcoming projects aggregating ~6.1 mn sq ft, which MLDL is looking to
launch over the next couple of quarters. The majority of the remaining
land bank (12.1 mn sq ft) is in Chennai (10.5 mn sq ft), a part of residential
development in MWC Chennai.

5.2

Others

17.2

FII & DII holding trend (%)


30.0

25.6

25.6

26.6

25.7

25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0

5.9

5.2

5.9

One of the differentiating factors for MLDL is its presence in SEZ


development. Its Chennai SEZ totalling ~1550 acres was the first SEZ
developed by a private developer. MLDLs Jaipur SEZ aggregating ~3000
acres is also progressing very well. Additionally, the company is also
planning its second integrated business city in north Chennai over 750
acres where land acquisition for ~500 acres has been completed so far.

5.8

5.0
0.0
Q3FY12

Q4F Y12
F II

Q1F Y13
DII

Q2FY13

Exhibit 2: Timeline of MLDL


Company name changed from Gesco
Corporation Ltd to Mahindra Gesco
Developers Ltd

Incorporated as a private
limited company

Mar, 1999

Aug, 1999

Mahindra Industrial Park Ltd,


rechristened as Mahindra World
City Developers Ltd

Converted into public limited company


under the name of Gesco Corporation Ltd
post merger with real estate division of GE
Shipping

Aug, 2008

Oct, 2007

FY06

Dec, 2002

Mahindra World City


Jaipur commences
operation

Mahindra World City


(Jaipur) Ltd became
subsidiary of the
company

Company name changed


to Mahindra Lifespace
Developers Limited

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 3: Company structure of MLDL


Mahindra & Mahindra Group
51%
Mahindra Life Space Developers
70%

74%

Mahindra Bebenco
Developers Ltd.
30%

74%
Mahindra World City
Jaipur

Mahindra Residential
Developers Ltd

26%

49%

B.E.Billimoria

RIICO

ARCH Capital

51%

Mahindra Integrated
Township Ltd.

6%

83%
26%

Mahindra World City


Developers
11%
TIDCO

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 2

Investment Rationale
Residential portfolio robust project pipeline
MLDL holds total land bank of 22.2 mn sq ft as on Q2FY13. Out of these,
14.1 mn sq ft in Chennai is held through its subsidiaries (MITL & MRDL
subsidiaries) and rest is largely held under the MLDL umbrella.
Furthermore, the company currently has ongoing projects of 4.0 mn sq ft
(Chennai - 1.6 mn sq ft, Mumbai 0.8 mn sq ft & Nagpur- 0.4 mn sq ft). It
has Forthcoming projects of 6.1 mn sq ft (Chennai 1.9 mn sq ft, Pune
1.5 mn sq ft, Hyderabad 1.1 mn sq ft & Nagpur 1.1 mn sq ft), which
will hold key for the growth of residential portfolio, going ahead.

30%
70%

Residential

Exhibit 4: Residential project portfolio

Others

million sq ft
Chennai
Mumbai
Alibaug
Pune
NCR
Nagpur
Hyderabad
Nasik
Bangalore
Total

Residential portfolio to contribute 70% to our target price

Company
MITL & MRDL
MLDL
MLDL
MLDL
MLDL
MBDL
MLDL
MLDL
MLDL

Ongoing
1.6
0.8
0.2
1.0
0.4

Forthcoming
1.9
0.3
0.2
1.5

Land bank
10.5
0.7

Total
14.0
1.7
0.2
2.0
1.0
1.5
1.1
0.6
22.2

0.3

1.1
1.1
0.6

4.0

6.1

12.1

Source: Companys Quarterly investor presentations, ICICIdirect.com Research

MLDL- Sales volume muted in H1FY13; new launches provide visibility in FY15E
In the standalone property portfolio, MLDL has ongoing projects of 2.4
mn sq ft. Out of which, already 80% area is sold. Given lesser area
available for sale in H1FY13, MLDL sales have been muted in H1FY13.
Going ahead, MLDL is expecting to launch 3.5 mn sq ft in the coming
quarters. Out of these, the company has already launched a phase in
Hyderabad (total 1.1 mn sq ft) in December 2012. Furthermore, MLDL
also has MoUs of about 4.5 mn sq ft of residential land under title due
diligence. This would enable the company to add much needed land for
future growth.

MLDL also has MoUs of about 4.5 mn sq ft of residential


land under title due diligence. This would enable the
company to add much needed land for future growth

Exhibit 5: MLDL Ongoing project portfolio

Location
Mumbai

Nagpur*

NCR
Pune
Total Ongoing Project

Project Name
Eminente Aspen
Eminente Angelica
Splendour -II
GE Garden #
Bloomdale IA
Bloomdale IB
Aura- II
Aura- III
Aura- IV
Aura- V
Antheia - Ph I

Total Development
launched
mn sq ft units
0.2
68
0.2
68
0.4
230
0.1
60
0.2
210
0.2
98
0.2
166
0.2
110
0.3
141
0.3
110
0.2
200
2.4

Last base Price


Launch Date (|/sq ft)
Aug-09
10,350
Sep-10
9,650
Feb-10
8,200
Jul-11
10,747
Nov-11
3,000
May-12
2,950
Dec-10
3,175
Apr-11
4,100
Dec-11
4,375
Dec-11
4,375
Sep-12
4,500

% units sold
100%
100%
100%
7%
68%
42%
100%
100%
94%
86%
22%

% completion
83%
75%
76%
21%
16%
63%
54%
40%
37%

Estimated
completion date
Dec-12
Sep-13
Mar-13
Dec-14
Apr-13
Mar-14
Sep-13
Dec-14
Jun-15
Jun-15
Mar-16

Source: Companys Quarterly investor presentations, ICICIdirect.com Research


* under MBDL (in JV)which we have considered under standalone

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 3

Exhibit 6: MLDL Forthcoming projects

Exhibit 7: MLDL landbank projects

Location
Mumbai

Project Name
GE Gardens, Kanjurmarg
Alibaug
Antheia subsequent phases
Pune
Sopan Baug
Avadi affordable housing
Chennai
Hyderabad Kukatapally
Nagpur
Bloomdale new phases
Total

Mn sq ft
0.3
0.2
1.4
0.1
0.7
1.1
1.1
4.9

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com, Research

Location
Nasik

Project Name
Satpur Project

Pune

Pimpri Commercial Project


Thane Project

0.3
0.6

Kandivli Project

0.1
1.6

Mumbai
Total

Mn sq ft
0.6

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com, Research

Chennai Residential development riding on SEZ development


The residential development in Chennai is done through MITL & MRDL.
These subsidiaries are carved out subsidiaries of MWC undertaking
residential development of the integrated development at MWC.
Currently, these companies have ongoing project portfolio of 1.5 mn sq ft
and are expected to launch 1.2 mn sq ft in Chennai over the next 3-4
quarters.
MITL and MRDL have ongoing project portfolio of 1.5 mn
sq ft and are expected to launch 1.2 mn sq ft in Chennai
over the next 3-4 quarters.

Exhibit 8: Ongoing projects in Chennai


mn
Project Name sq ft units
Aqualily Villas C
0.1
40
Aqualily Villas D
0.1
37
Aqualily Apts A
0.1
80
Aqualily Apts B
0.3 178
Aqualily Apts C1
0.3 136
Iris Court Ph I
0.3 244
Iris Court Ph II
0.3 229
1.5

Location

Chennai

Total

Launch Date
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-10
Dec-10
Sep-12
Dec-10
Jan-11

Last base
price (|/sq
%
ft) % units sold completion
4,640
44%
35%
4,634
35%
30%
3,740
100%
37%
3,740
77%
20%
3,780
3%
0%
2,900
100%
48%
3,320
73%
9%

Estimated
completion
date
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-13
Sep-14
Oct-14
Sep-12
Jun-14

Source: Companys Quarterly investor presentations, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 9: Forthcoming & Land bank in Chennai


12

10.5

in mn sq ft

9
6
3
0.5

0.3

0.4

MWC Chennai
Residential

Iris Court

Aquality

Forthcoming

MWC Chennai
Residential
Landbank

Source: Companys Quarterly investor presentations, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 4

We highlight that the sales volume and absorption trend of the Chennai
residential market has been buoyant in the recent past. Nonetheless, we
remain conservative in our sales volume estimates and factor in
absorption of the entire area over 10-12 years (till FY25).

Average Property prices

5.0

5.3

15

3.9

10
5

Sales volume

Sep-12

Jun-12

Mar-12

Dec-11

Sep-11

Y-o-Y (RHS)

Source: Liases Foras, ICICIdirect.com Research

6.6 20

6.5

(%)

5.0

5.5

Jun-11

Sep-12

Jun-12

Mar-12

Dec-11

Sep-11

Jun-11

0
Mar-11

2900
Dec-10

5
Sep-10

3250

Jun-10

10

5.5

Mar-11

3600

7.4

Dec-10

15

8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0 3.2
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0

Sep-10

3950

20
(mn sq ft)

25

Exhibit 11: But absorption remains robust

(%)

4300

Jun-10

(|/sq feet)

Exhibit 10: Chennai property prices increase over last couple of years

Absorption (RHS)

Source: Liases Foras, ICICIdirect.com Research

Sales subdued now; expected to revive in FY15E with new launches


With a high percentage of a majority of ongoing projects (3 mn sq ft out
of 4 mn sq ft) already sold and given that a couple of projects had earlier
faced delays in clearances, we expect FY13 residential sales to be lower
at 0.9 mn sq ft. However, boosted by the forthcoming project pipeline of
6.1 mn sq ft, the remaining land bank of 12.1 mn sq ft and clearances
issues sorted out, we expect a bump up in residential sales volume in
FY14 and FY15.We expect residential sales of 1.5 mn sq feet and 2.1 mn
sq feet in FY14 and FY15 respectively.
Exhibit 12: Residential sales volume and value trend

Boosted by the forthcoming project pipeline of 6.1 mn sq ft


and remaining land bank of 12.1 mn sq ft, we expect a
bump up in residential sales volume in FY14 and FY15.

2.1

2.0
1.5

1.2

1.5

1.2
0.9

1.0
0.5

1.4

0.3

0.4

FY08

FY09

0.4

1200
1000
800
600
400

(| crore)

(million sq feet)

2.5

200
0

0.0
FY10

FY11
Area Sold

FY12 H1FY13 FY13E FY14E FY15E


Sales Value (RHS)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Hencerevenue recognition to see jump in FY15E only


,

As we highlighted above, given the slowing sales volume in FY13E-14E


and strong pipeline of forthcoming projects, which would be launched
over the next couple of quarters and reach the threshold in FY15E, we
anticipate the residential portfolio will see a pick-up in revenue
recognition in FY15E. Overall, we anticipate residential portfolio revenues
growing at 12.4% CAGR during FY12-15E despite the subdued revenues
recognition in FY13E. Nonetheless, overall the residential portfolio
contribution to overall consolidated revenues is expected to come down
to 68.7% in FY15E from 71.3% in FY13E.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 5

Exhibit 13: Revenues recognition & contribution to consolidated revenues


85

1200
81.7

1000

400
200

68
138

0
23

29
54

30 71.3
81

85
126

477

469

411

417

FY11

FY12

FY13E

FY14E

68.7

75
(%)

(| crore)

800
600

80

78.6

68.7
577

70
65
60

Standalone

MRDL

MITL

FY15E

Revenue contribution (RHS)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Mahindra World City early mover in SEZ play

26%

74%
Industrial Development

Others

Industrial Development to form 26% of target price

MLDL has positioned its SEZ portfolio well with the three
SEZs in different phases of development. While the
Chennai SEZ totalling ~1550 acres is in a mature and
monetisation stage (where the company is now reaping
the benefits of residential development), the Jaipur SEZ is
in the development phase while North Chennai is in the
initial phase

MLDL enjoys the early mover advantage in the SEZ business. MLDL is the
first private player that has developed Chennai SEZ totalling ~1550 acres
(saleable area - 1125 acres, industrial - 822 acres and residential &
commercial: 303 acres) Leveraging on this experience, MLDLs Jaipur
SEZ aggregating ~3000 acres (saleable area - ~2064 acres, industrial 1350 acres and residential & social area - 714 acres) is also progressing
very well. Additionally, the company is also planning its second integrated
business city in north Chennai over 750 acres where land acquisition for
~500 acres has been completed so far. We also like MLDL SEZ portfolio
given the fact it has exposure in every stage of SEZ. Hence, the cash
flows generated from mature & monetisation stage SEZ such as Chennai
will help it in development of North Chennai & Jaipur SEZ.
Additionally, MLDL has also entered into two MoUs with the Gujarat
Government at the Vibrant Gujarat summit. While the first MoU is for
the development of a ~3,000 acres integrated business city at the Dholera
Special Investment region, located in the proposed Delhi Mumbai
Industrial Corridor, the second MoU is for the development of an
industrial park of ~500 acres near Ahmedabad. We highlight that we have
not considered the above two planned SEZs into our valuation
considering that they are still at a nascent stage.

Exhibit 14: Phasing and positioning of various World Cities


1.2
Mahindra World City, North Chennai
1
0.8
0.6
0.4

Land acquisition
Regulatory clearance & approval process

0.2

Setting up of infrastructure
Development of industrial units and
getting anchor clients on board
Promotion of investment, export and
employment creation happens during this
phase

Monetisation of land parcel happens during


this phase
During this phase, development of
residential properties and commercial buildings
such as malls, hospitals is done

Source: Companys Quarterly investor presentations, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 6

Leasing income to improve through MWC & MWCJ


The north Chennai land would be the major kicker for
leasing income at MWC from FY15 onwards. For MWC
Jaipur, we expect improvement in leasing activity on the
back of development of industrial zones and planned DMIC
passing along Rajasthan which could attract further clients.

We expect revenues from MWC (includes North Chennai) and MWC


Jaipur to expand from | 148.2 crore in FY12 to | 355.5 crore in FY15
largely led by leasing activity from Jaipur, & kicking in of lease income
from North Chennai. With only 8% of the leasable area left from MWC
Chennai, we expect the leasing activity at North Chennai to kick in from
FY15 onwards and support the lease income. For MWC Jaipur, we expect
improvement in leasing activity on the back of development of industrial
zones and planned DMIC passing along Rajasthan which could attract
further clients.

Exhibit 15: Leasing income to improve through MWC & MWCJ

Exhibit 16: World Cities to contribute ~ 31% revenues in FY15


35.0

FY15E
FY14E

30.0
(%)

FY13E
FY12
FY11
50.0

25.0
20.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

(| crore)
MWC- Chennai

300.0

350.0

15.0
FY11

MWC - Jaipur

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

FY12

FY13E

FY14E

FY15E

Leasing as a % of Total Revnues

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Leveraging on MWC- North Chennai foray


Mahindra World City (MWC), Chennai is the first SEZ in the private sector
with MLDL being a pioneer in integrated business city development in
India. MWC, jointly promoted by MLDL and Tamil Nadu Industrial
Development Corporation Ltd (TIDL), has been operational for the last 11
years. It has three sector SEZs IT (services & manufacturing), apparel &
fashion accessories and auto ancillaries a domestic tariff area (DTA) for
businesses catering to the Indian market and a residential & social
infrastructure zone over the saleable area of ~1,134 acres.
The business zone in the project has 61 customers (40 of whom are
operational) and provides employment to ~29,000 people. The operation
of MWC has matured. With 90% of industrial land already leased and
leveraging on the success of the same, the company is planning to launch
another integrated development in Chennai. This project will be spread
across 750 acres, towards North Chennai, which is home to large
industries in the engineering and automobile sector. The company has so
far acquired 500 acres for the same while the remaining land acquisition is
under way.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 7

Exhibit 17: Break-up of land at MWC Chennai


Industrial

Acres

Sold/Leased (%)

850.0

90

of which

MWC Chennai has three sector specific special economic


zones (SEZs) IT (services and manufacturing), apparel
and fashion accessories and auto ancillaries a domestic
tariff area (DTA) for businesses catering to the Indian
market and a residential & social infrastructure zone over
the saleable area of ~1,134 acres

SEZ

442.0

IT

297.5

Auto Ancillary

93.5

Apparel & Fashion

51.0

DTA

408.0

Residential

241.0

100

Commercial

43.0

26

Saleable Area

1134.0

Source: Companys Quarterly investor presentations, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 18: Clientele trend at MWC Chennai


70
60

57

50
44

40

60

61

49

38

30
20
10
0
FY08
The business zone in the project has 61 customers (40 of
whom are operational) and provides employment to
~29,000 people

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

H1FY13

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 19: Employment trend at MWC Chennai


35000
27000

(No.s people)

30000
25000

20000

20000

23000

12000

15000
10000

29000

7500

5000
0
FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

H1FY13

Source: Companys Annual Reports, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 8

Exhibit 20: Clientele at MWC Chennai


IT SEZ

Auto SEZ

Domestic Tariff Area

Domestic Tariff Area

Atos Origin*

Brakes India

Alpha Packaging

Milton Roy India

Capgemini India

Madras Engineering

American Axle

Musashi Paints

Electronic Recycling

Sundaram Brake Linings

Armstrong

Mecaplast India

Helios & Matheson*

Sundaram Clayton

B. Braun Medical

Netafim

Infosys Ltd

Sundaram Fasteners

BMW India

NTN Corporation

Mastek

Timken Engineering

CII

Parker Hannifin

MindTree*

UCAL Fuel Systems

DePuy Medical

Sakazaki Engraving

Federal Mogul

Sanwa Synergy
ShardaMotor Industries

Renault Nissan*
Tech Mahindra*

Apparel SEZ

Freight Systems

VIPL

AI Enterprises

Fujitec India

SMC Pneumatic

Wipro

Bengal Hangers

Galipoglu Hidromas

Tesa Tapes India

Capella Fashions

Guangdong Greatoo

Tridon Automotive
TTK Healthcare

Social

Intermode

Husky Injection Molding Systems

Duet Hotels

Leather Craft

Ingersoll Rand

JSP Hospitals

Linea Fashions

JCF Valves

Mahindra World School

Rico Group

JSP Foams

Amelio Day Care

Srinivasa Fashions

Kryolan Cosmetics

BP Petrol Station

Slam Apparel

Lincoln Electric Company

Canopy Commercial Complex

Timex Garments

Mahindra & Mahindra

Source: Companys Quarterly investor presentations, ICICIdirect.com Research

MWC Jaipur Development stage - to bear fruits going ahead

MWC Jaipur is a 74:26 JV between MLDL and Rajasthan


State Industrial Development & Investment Corporation Ltd
(RIICO). It is being developed as a multi-product SEZ and
DTA across 3,000 acres

MWC Jaipur is a 74:26 JV between MLDL and Rajasthan State Industrial


Development & Investment Corporation Ltd (RIICO). It is being developed
as a multi-product SEZ and DTA across 3,000 acres, for which 2,809 acres
of land have been acquired as on Q2FY13. The project has five zones
namely IT/ITeS, handicraft, engineering & related industries, gems &
jewellery and the domestic tariff area. MWC Jaipur also plans to expand
the coverage of the project to include other segments such as apparel,
logistics and residential & social infrastructure. The company has so far
leased ~ 550 acres (i.e., 41% of industrial land). The business zone in the
project has 12 operational customers and provides employment to
~3,000 people.
MWC Jaipur has also allocated ~714 acres for the development of
residential and social infrastructure, which the company expects to
develop after the commissioning of a major portion of business zones.
We believe that post the maturity of business zones, residential
development would be the key value driver for MWC Jaipur, going
forward. Nevertheless, we highlight that we have not built in any value
from the same in our fair valuation.
In addition to the leasing of the above land, the IT/ITeS SEZ also includes
Evolve, which is a 1.4 mn sq ft multi-tenanted IT park spread over ~25
acres (currently ~0.4 mn sq ft operational).
Exhibit 21: Leasing status of Evolve

In addition to the leasing of the above land, the IT/ITeS SEZ


also includes Evolve, which is a 1.4 mn sq ft multi-tenanted
IT park spread over ~25 acres

Rentable Area (sq feet)

Area leased (sq feet)

A1

115316

115316

A2

115316

99884

B1

100025

30291

Building

Source: Companys Quarterly investor presentations, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 9

Exhibit 22: Location of MWC Jaipur

Located 262 km from Delhi, to the south west of Jaipur


Distances within Jaipur
- Airport 22 km
- Railway Station 21 km
- City Centre 21 km
In proximity to
- Proposed Outer Ring Road
- Proposed Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC)

Source: MWC Jaipur Brochure, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 23: Break-up of land at MWC Jaipur


Industrial

Acres

Leased (%)

1350.0

41

of which
SEZ

972.0

DTA

378.0

Residential

714.0

Saleable Area

2064.0

Source: Companys Quarterly investor presentations, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 24: Clientele at MWC Jaipur


IT/ITeS SEZ

Handicrafts SEZ

Engineering & Related Industries SEZ

BOI Global Services*

GAD Industries

Dynamic Powertech
Gravita

EXL Service*

Jaipur Crafts

SystweakSoftware*

Kirat Crafts

India Agrovision

Genpact*

Laxmi Ideal Interiors

Knitpro International

Girnar Software

OrviDesign

Marsons Industries

Infosys BPO

Rajdhani Craft

Poly Medicure

Infosys Ltd.

RatanTextiles

QH Talbros

Isys Softech

Rediprint International

Tijaria International

Nagarro Sortware

Samurai Designs & Interiors

Veto Electricals

Nucleus Software

Seesham Handicraft House

Veto Polymers & Metals

Truworth KPO Services

Rama Handicrafts

DTA

Wipro

Art Age Furnishings

ICICI Bank

ConnexxionsIT Services

Rustic Furniture

State Bank of India

Tech Mahindra

Source: Companys Quarterly investor presentations, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 10

Rajasthan - Favourable location for export oriented industrial development


Rajasthan's location, with its proximity to the NCR industrial clusters and
ports of the western coast, make it an ideal location for export-oriented
industrial development on a large scale. Additionally, 40% of the
proposed Delhi-Mumbai freight corridor will pass through Rajasthan
throwing up enormous possibilities for development of industrial belts
such as SEZs along the corridor. Furthermore, the Rajasthan government
is doling out the following incentives/benefits for SEZ:
Land conversion at | 100 to developers in rural areas & 100%
exemption on stamp duty to developers and units in RIICO SEZ
50% exemption to units from electricity duty for seven years &
100% exemption from work contract tax to units and developers
for seven years
100% exemption from entry tax to units on capital goods brought
into local areas by the unit required for use as capital goods for
setting up industry in SEZ
100% exemption from VAT to units on sale or purchase by a
registered dealer for an industrial unit established in the SEZ
100% exemption from luxury tax for seven years & 50% exemption
from entertainment tax for seven years
Exhibit 25: Rajasthan enjoys benefit of DMIC presence

Source: dmic.co.in, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 11

Land Acquisition Bill on the cards...MLDL to benefit on early mover advantage


The Cabinet recently cleared the new land acquisition bill, which will now
be presented in the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha. The key changes that the
bill seeks to introduce are:
Consent of 80% of owners mandatory for private projects and 70%
for public-private-partnership projects
Compensation has been set at 4x and 2x of the market value of the
land in rural and urban areas, respectively
Besides the above-mentioned compensation, a comprehensive
Rehabilitation and Resettlement package has also been proposed
for both land owners and livelihood losers. Apart from this, setting
up infrastructural amenities has also been proposed to be provided
in the resettlement area

With the implementation of the bill, to the extent it gets


more and more difficult and costly to add land; MWC
Jaipur could see better interest in terms of prices and
demand

Implementation of this bill will definitely hike the cost of land for
developers. However, we believe MLDL that has already acquired almost
its complete land requirement in Mahindra City, Jaipur will benefit in
terms of early mover advantage. Furthermore, with the implementation of
the bill, to the extent it gets more and more difficult to add land, MWC
Jaipur could see better interest in terms of price and demand.
Additionally, the company has already acquired ~ 500 acres out of 750
acres for MWC North Chennai, which implies it would not have to shell
out a higher price for the same.

Superior net debt to equity vis--vis peers


MLDL has a comfortable net debt to equity of 0.5x as on Q2FY13. We
expect it to come down to 0.3x in FY15 as we believe that free cash flow
generated from residential sales and SEZ sales would more than
compensate for the capex requirement.

We believe that a superior net debt to equity vis--vis


peers assures timely execution and provides significant
scope for growth, going ahead

At the parent level also, MLDL has a strong balance sheet and is currently
sitting on a net cash of | 86.6 crore at the standalone level (inclusive of
current investment of ~| 204.3 crore) as on Q2FY13. We believe that
superior net debt to equity vis--vis peers assures timely execution and
provides significant scope for growth, going ahead.
Exhibit 26: Comfortable debt equity position at consolidated level ensures timely execution
0.6
0.4

(x)

0.4
0.3
0.2

0.5
0.4
0.3

0.3

0.2

0.0
FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13E

FY14E

FY15E

Debt/Equity

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 12

Exhibit 27: Peer analysis of leverage


2.4
2.0
1.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.2

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.8

1.8
-0.2

-0.3

-0.4

(0.4)

-0.2

-0.1

0.9

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.7

1.1

1.1

0.0

0.9

0.4

0.5

0.8
2.1

(x)

1.2

(0.8)
Godrej Properties

DLF

Oberoi Realty
FY09

FY10

FY11

Sobha Developers
FY12

Mahindra Lifespace

H1FY13

Source: Company, Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Management track record across business verticals another reassurance


MLDL is promoted by the Mahindra Group, which has a diversified
presence in automobile, financial services, IT, travel & tourism, etc. The
group has had a presence for the last five decades and has exhibited a
strong track record of being among the top players across business
verticals. The strong management capabilities add to our reassurance that
execution of projects shall remain robust.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 13

Financials
Consolidated revenue to grow at 17.6% CAGR during FY12-15E
We expect MLDLs consolidated net sales to grow at 17.6% CAGR during
FY12-15E led by a ramp-up in residential sales (both standalone and other
subsidiaries) and robust growth in MWC Jaipur.
While sales growth for standalone residential properties will be moderate
at 7.2% CAGR during FY12-15E (major bump up to be seen only in FY15
with projects reaching the revenue threshold in that year), the robust
growth in other residential properties (MITL, MRDL, etc) would prop up
the consolidated revenue growth. Furthermore, the ramp up in MWC
Jaipur and initiation of north Chennai leasing would also contribute to the
topline at the consolidated level.
Exhibit 28: Consolidated revenue growth trend
1,140.5

1200
17.6% CAGR

1000

We expect revenues to grow at a CAGR of 17.6% in FY1215E from | 70.1.3 crore to | 1141 crore

(| crore)

800
611.9

701.3

732.4

FY12

FY13E

914.4

600
400
200
0
FY11

FY14E

FY15E

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 29: Break-up of consolidated revenues


1200
68
138

(| crore)

1000
85

800
600
400

0
23
41
68

29
54
90
58

477

469

30
81
132

126
173

76

112

411

417

FY13E
MWC - Jaipur

FY14E
MRDL MITL

217
138

577

200
FY11
Standalone

FY12
MWC - Chennai

FY15E
Others

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 14

EBITDA to grow at 25.6% CAGR during FY12-15


The consolidated EBITDA of MLDL is expected to grow at a CAGR of
25.6% during FY12-15 on the back of strong revenue growth and an
improvement in margins. EBITDA margins are expected to improve from
27.3% in FY12 to 33.2% in FY15 on the back of an increasing share of
higher margin MWC revenues as well as improved margins from the
residential segment.
Exhibit 30: EBITDA growth trend
378.8

400

35

350
273.1

250
200

176.4

30

202.7

191.3

(%)

EBITDA margins are expected to improve from 27.3% in


FY12 to 33.2% in FY15 on the back of increasing share of
higher margin MWC revenues as well as improved margins
from residential segment

(| crore)

300

150

25

100
50
0

20
FY11

FY12

FY13E
EBITDA

FY14E

FY15E

Margin (RHS)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

PAT growth of 15.9% CAGR in FY12-15


PAT is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15.9% in FY12-15E driven by
revenue growth. While profitability will be lower in FY13E and moderate
in FY14E, we expect PAT to grow to | 185.6 crore in FY15E driven by the
higher revenue bump up in FY15E.
Exhibit 31: PAT & PAT margin trend
200

185.6

180
160

PAT is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15.9% in FY12-15E


driven by revenue growth

(| crore)

140
120

108.2

119.1

105.3

117.7

100
80
60
40
20
0
FY11

FY12

FY13E

FY14E

FY15E

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 15

Return ratios to bottom out by FY13


For FY13 we expect return ratios to decline given the muted bottomline
show. However, improvement in profitability from FY14 onwards will be a
kicker for the return ratios of MLDL to improve.
Exhibit 32: Return ratios to improve
18
16

16.3

(%)

14
The improvement in return ratios will mainly be seen in
FY14E onwards driven by a sharp bump up in earnings

12
10
8

10.2
9.9

10.3

12.1

9.1

9.5

12.7

8.9

8.5

6
FY11

FY12

FY13E
RoNW

FY14E

FY15E

RoCE

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 16

Risk & concerns


Removal of MAT exemption may dent SEZ demand
The Union Budget of FY12 had removed the MAT exemption for
developers and units under SEZ, which was earlier allowed under Section
115JB (6) the Income-Tax Act. The Budget proposed to levy MAT of
18.5% on the book profits of SEZ developers and units. This was done in
an attempt to move towards the Direct Tax Code, proposed to be
implemented by FY14, which seeks to replace profit-based tax benefit
with investment-linked incentives along with gradual removal of other
existing incentives benefiting SEZ units. This move could have a bearing
on the demand for SEZ units as tax benefit was a key incentive for units
proposing to set up business there.
Removal of MAT exemption may have a bearing on
demand for SEZ units as tax benefit was a key incentive for
units proposing to set up business there

The government meanwhile has indicated that it would announce revised


norms for SEZs, which are losing favour due to removal of MAT
exemption. Media reports indicate the government is considering relaxing
the requirement for minimum land requirement as well as extending
benefits of exports scheme. We believe any positive move would be key
in reviving the interest in SEZ units.

Delay in standalone residential projects approval


Delays in getting project and land approvals for the standalone residential
projects have been a key dragger in terms of execution for MLDL in FY13.
The key projects on the anvil, which have seen delays, were the
Bloomdale project in Nagpur, 1.75 mn sq ft Pimpri residential project
(approved and launched in Q2FY13) and subsequent phases of Iris Court,
Chennai. Besides these, its 0.25 mn sq ft Kanjurmarg residential project is
also on hold. We believe that continued delays in such projects could be a
major risk to our real estate execution estimates.

Inability to replenish land bank


MLDL does not maintain a large land bank for its developmental plans.
Apart from a large land bank for residential projects in Chennai, it has
maintained a policy of acquiring land and developing it within a relatively
short duration of time. We believe that inability to replenish the land bank
for residential development could pose a risk to standalone business
growth.
However, we note that apart from the current land bank, MLDL also has
MoUs of about 4.5 mn sq ft of residential land under title due diligence,
which would enable it to add the much need land for future growth

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 17

Valuation

We are initiating coverage on MLDL with a BUY


recommendation and a price target of |505 (0.7x FY14E
potential NAV)

At the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.6x its FY14E potential NAV and 1.2x
FY14E P/BV. Considering the quality of management and better leverage
position, we believe the current valuations are attractive. We are initiating
coverage on MLDL with a BUY recommendation with a target price of
| 505 (0.7x FY14E potential NAV). We have considered a discounting rate
of 15% for the SEZ and real estate business. To value the commercial
property such as Evolve IT Park and Canopy, we have used the cap rate of
11%. Based on these assumptions, our FY14E potential NAV for MLDL
work outs to | 708/share and we derive our target price at | 505/share
(0.7x FY14E potential NAV) as we have not incorporated the residential
development at Jaipur in our NAV; the success of which would largely
hinges upon the Jaipur SEZ. We have valued MLDL on the NAV
methodology as this methodology captures the true value from its long
term nature of the SEZ and real estate business.

Exhibit 33: Valuation


Project

Mn sq
ft/Acres

Chennai
MWC - Chennai & North Chennai
SEZ (in Acres)

NAV
Value

MLD (%)

623.7

Stake value

Value / share

518.5

127.0

NAV
Multiple

Target Valuation
Value

MLD (%)

579.4

Stake value

Value / share

482.0

118.0

Canopy
MITL
MRDL
Avadi

2300
0.1
11.9
1.46
0.72

150.3
11.5
314.8
127.7
19.4

83
83
96
49
100

124.8
9.5
302.2
62.6
19.4

30.6
2.3
74.0
15.3
4.8

1.0x
1.0x
0.9x
0.9x
1.0x

150.3
11.5
283.3
114.9
19.4

83
83
96
49
100

124.8
9.5
272.0
56.3
19.4

30.6
2.3
66.6
13.8
4.8

MWC Jaipur
MWC Jaipur SEZ (in Acres)
Evolve IT park - Operational
Evolve IT park - Development
Residential Area

3000
0.4
1.0
21.8

1249
408
107.3
18.3
715.7

74
74
74
100

1111
302.0
79.4
13.5
715.7

272.0
74.0
19.4
3.3
175.3

1.0x
1.0x
0.9x
0.0

532
408.2
107.3
16.4
0.0

74
74
74
100

394
302.0
79.4
12.2
0.0

96.4
74.0
19.4
3.0
0.0

Mumbai
Eminente Aspen Goregaon
Eminente Angelica Goregaon
Splendour -II Bhandup
GE Garden # Kanjurmarg
Thane
Kandivli

1.5
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.1
0.6
0.1

350.5
8.1
12.0
20.1
130.9
138.5
40.9

100
100
100
100
100
100

350.5
8.1
12.0
20.1
130.9
138.5
40.9

85.8
2.0
2.9
4.9
32.1
33.9
10.0

1.0x
1.0x
1.0x
1.0x
1.0x
1.0x

350.5
8.1
12.0
20.1
130.9
138.5
40.9

100
100
100
100
100
100

350.5
8.1
12.0
20.1
130.9
138.5
40.9

85.8
2.0
2.9
4.9
32.1
33.9
10.0

NCR- Aura

1.0

58.07

100

58.1

14.2

1.0x

58.1

100

58.1

14.2

Pune

2.0

164.9

100

164.9

40.4

1.0x

164.9

100

164.9

40.4

Hyderabad

1.1

211.1

100

211.1

51.7

0.8x

158.3

100

158.3

38.8

Nagpur

1.5

171.8

70

120.3

29.5

1.0x

171.8

70

120.3

29.5

Alibaug

0.2

152.5

100

152.5

37.3

1.0x

152.5

100

152.5

37.3

Nasik

0.6

119.4

100

119.4

29.2

0.8x

95.5

100

95.5

23.4

86.9

100

86.9

21.3

1.0x

86.9

100

86.9

21.3

2892.8

708.4

2062.7

505.1

FY14E Net Cash


Grand Total

3188.3

2349.9

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 18

In our target valuation, we have not assigned any value to


residential development in the Jaipur SEZ as the success
of this would largely depend upon the Jaipur SEZ and
residential development is at least two to three years away
from here

Exhibit 34: Vertical wise NAV break-up

In terms of vertical wise break-up, residential contributes 78% to our NAV


valuation and 70% to our target price valuation followed by SEZ
contributing 15% to our NAV valuation and 21% to our target valuation.
The difference in vertical wise distribution is largely on account of Jaipur
Residential valuation. In our target valuation, we have not assigned any
value to the residential Jaipur SEZ as the success of this would largely
depend upon the Jaipur SEZ and residential development is at least two
to three years away from here.
Exhibit 35: Vertical wise target price break-up

IT Park
4%

IT Park
5%
Net Cash
4%

Net Cash
3%
Residential
78%

SEZ
15%

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 36: Area wise NAV break-up


NCR Pune
2% 6%

In terms of area wise break-up, Jaipur contributes 38% to our NAV


valuation while Chennai contributes 18%. In our target valuation, Chennai
accounts for 24% followed by Jaipur (19%) and Mumbai (17%).
Exhibit 37: Area wise target price break-up
Pune
NCR 8%
3%

Hyderabad
7%
Others
17%

Jaipur
38%

SEZ
21%

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

In our target valuation, Chennai accounts for 24% followed


by Jaipur (18%) and Mumbai (17%)

Mumbai
12%

Residential
70%

Chennai
18%

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Hyderabad
8%

Mumbai
17%

Jaipur
19%

Others
22%

Chennai
23%

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 19

MLDL is currently available at a discount to other leading real estate


development players. Considering the quality management and better
leverage position, we believe MLDLs discount to other leading players is
unwarranted.

Considering the quality management, & better leverage


position, we believe MLDL discount to other leading
players is unwarranted.

Exhibit 38: Peer valuation matrix


Mkt Cap
(| crore)

EPS

Price/Earnings(x)

RoE (%)

FY12

FY13E

FY14E

FY12

FY13E

FY14E

39204

9.6

9.6

11.3

21.2

23.9

20.4

6.8

6.2

Oberoi Realty

8891

14.1

15.9

29.0

19.2

17.1

9.3

12.4

Godrej Properties

4608

18.7

18.2

29.8

40.2

36.3

22.1

DLF

Price / Book (x)

FY12 FY13E FY14E

EV / EBITDA (x)

FY12

FY13E

FY14E

FY12

FY13E

FY14E

7.0

1.6

1.5

1.4

15.0

14.3

13.2

12.5

18.8

2.4

2.1

1.8

15.7

11.9

5.5

13.6

13.0

18.9

5.2

4.5

3.9

62.7

32.2

18.0

Sobha Developers

3785

21.0

23.0

32.2

18.4

16.8

12.0

10.3

10.4

13.2

1.9

1.7

1.6

10.6

9.2

6.5

Mahindra Lifespace

1634

29.2

25.8

28.8

13.5

15.3

13.7

10.3

8.5

8.9

1.4

1.3

1.2

11.2

7.0

5.5

Source: Bloomberg, Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 39: One year forward P/BV chart


The stock has traded at an average P/BV of 1.3x. Currently,
at one year forward P/BV of 1.2x, the price to book is still
lower than historical average

800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100

Price

P/BV 2.5

P/BV 2

P/BV 1.5

P/BV 1

Oct-12

Jul-12

Apr-12

Jan-12

Oct-11

Jul-11

Apr-11

Jan-11

Oct-10

Jul-10

Apr-10

Jan-10

Oct-09

Jul-09

Apr-09

Jan-09

Oct-08

Jul-08

Apr-08

P/BV 0.5

Source: Company, Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 20

Key assumption & sensitivity analysis


In order to arrive at MLDLs NAV valuation of | 708/share and target price
of | 505/share, we have built up the key assumption. We discuss the key
assumption below and exhibit the sensitivity to our key assumption.
Exhibit 40 below gives details about our assumption for realisation
and construction cost for our base year i.e. FY13E. From FY14E
onwards, we have built up 5% escalation per annum for both
realisation and construction cost per annum
Exhibit 41 shows the sensitivity to our realisation and construction
cost escalation assumption of 5% per annum. According to our
analysis, every 1% change in realisation escalation impacts our
valuation ~6% and every 1% change in construction cost impacts
our valuation ~4%
To discount the future cash flows, we have considered the discount
rate of 15%
Exhibit 42 indicates that every 1% change in our discount rate
assumption impacts our valuation by ~2%
From FY14E onwards, we have built up the 5% escalation
per annum for both realisation and construction cost per
annum

Exhibit 40: Assumption for realisation & construction cost for FY13E
Realisation/psf

FY2013E
Construction cost/psf

MITL
MRDL
Avadi

3.0
1.3
3320
4147
2500

0.3
0.3
2100
2144
1800

MWC Jaipur
MWC Jaipur SEZ *
Evolve IT park - Operational**
Evolve IT park - Development**
Residential Area

1.3
30
30
4000

0.3
NA
2000
2500

8,200
10,747
8000
11000

3800
3000
3000
3000

NCR- Aura

4375

2000

Pune

4500

2500

Hyderabad

3200

1800

Nagpur

2979

1500

Alibaug

10000

3500

2500

1500

Chennai
MWC Chennai*
MWC North Chennai*

Mumbai
Splendour -II Bhandup
GE Garden # Kanjurmarg
Thane
Kandivli

Nasik

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research


* on per acre basis
** indicates Lease rate p.m.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 21

Exhibit 41: Sensitivity to realisation & construction cost escalation per annum
Realisation escalation % p.a.

According to our analysis, every 1% change in


realisation escalation impacts our valuation ~6% and
every 1% change in construction cost impacts our
valuation ~4%

Construction cost
escalation % p.a.

505

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

3%

480.6

509.0

539.0

570.6

603.9

4%

464.3

492.7

522.7

554.3

587.6

5%

446.8

475.2

505.1

536.7

570.0

6%

427.9

456.3

486.3

517.8

551.2

7%

407.6

436.0

466.0

497.6

530.9

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Every 1% change in our discount rate assumption impacts


our valuation by ~2%

Exhibit 42: Sensitivity to discount rate


Discount rate

13.0%

14.0%

15.0%

16.0%

17.0%

Value /share (|)

505.1

505.1

505.1

505.1

505.1

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 22

Tables and ratios (Standalone)


Exhibit 43: Profit & loss account (standalone)
((| Crore)
Net Sales
Other Income
Total Revenue

FY11
476.6
30.3
506.8

FY12
469.0
52.2
521.1

FY13E
411.1
68.0
479.1

FY14E
416.8
50.0
466.8

FY15E
577.0
55.0
632.0

Operating Expenditure
Employee Expenses
Administrative Expenses
Total Operating Expenditure

313.7
15.9
24.2
353.8

302.0
20.9
25.0
347.9

258.5
23.0
27.5
309.0

260.3
25.3
30.2
315.9

334.4
27.9
33.3
395.6

EBITDA
Interest
PBDT
Depreciation
PBT
Total Tax
PAT

122.7
1.2
151.9
2.5
149.4
46.3
103.0

121.0
3.0
170.2
2.7
167.6
47.4
120.2

102.2
10.8
159.4
3.2
156.2
48.4
107.8

101.0
18.0
133.0
3.5
129.5
42.7
86.8

181.4
21.6
214.8
3.8
211.1
69.7
141.4

25.2

29.4

26.4

21.3

34.6

EPS

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 44: Balance sheet (standalone)


(| Crore)
Equity Capital
ESOP
Reserve and Surplus
Total Shareholders funds

FY11
40.8
0.6
986.8
1,028.3

FY12
40.8
0.8
1,078.5
1,120.2

FY13E
40.8
0.8
1,161.2
1,202.9

FY14E
40.8
0.8
1,227.8
1,269.4

FY15E
40.8
0.8
1,336.3
1,378.0

100.0

170.0

180.0

180.0

180.0

0.9

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.3)

1,129.2

1,289.8

1,382.5

1,449.1

1,557.6

48.3
16.4
31.9
362.1
168.7
182.0
333.0
204.8
34.8
923.3
152.9
35.3
735.1

47.7
18.6
29.1
448.6
233.6
88.3
463.5
127.3
97.6
1,010.3
156.6
41.5
812.2

52.7
21.8
30.9
388.6
397.5
78.8
405.5
173.9
78.8
1,134.6
135.2
36.4
963.0

57.7
25.2
32.5
388.6
396.9
79.9
411.1
234.0
79.9
1,202.0
137.0
36.9
1,028.1

62.7
29.0
33.7
388.6
380.9
110.7
569.1
204.8
110.7
1,376.1
189.7
51.0
1,135.3

1,129.2

1,289.8

1,382.5

1,449.1

1,557.6

Total Debt
Deferred Tax Liability
Total Liabilities
Total Gross Block
Less Total Accumulated Depreciation
Net Block
Other Investments
Inventory
Debtors
Loans and Advances
Cash
Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Creditors
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Total Assets

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 23

Exhibit 45: Cash flow statement (standalone)


(| Crore)
Profit after Tax
Depreciation
Cash Flow before working capital changes

FY11
103.0
2.5
106.7

FY12
120.2
2.7
125.8

FY13E
107.8
3.2
121.7

FY14E
86.8
3.5
108.2

FY15E
141.4
3.8
166.8

Net Increase in Current Assets


Net Increase in Current Liabilities
Net cash flow from operating activities

(139.2)
22.6
(10.0)

(164.5)
9.9
(28.8)

(77.7)
(26.6)
17.5

(7.3)
2.4
103.4

(203.4)
66.8
30.2

(Purchase)/Sale of Fixed Assets


(Purchase)/Sale of Investments
Others
Net Cash flow from Investing Activities

(2.1)
47.4
(1.0)
44.4

0.2
(86.5)
(1.2)
(87.5)

(5.0)
60.0
55.0

(5.0)
(5.0)

(5.0)
(5.0)

Inc / (Dec) in Equity Capital


Inc / (Dec) in Loan Funds
Others
Net Cash flow from Financing Activities

0.0
100.0
(34.7)
65.3

70.0
(31.3)
38.7

10.0
(35.9)
(25.9)

(38.2)
(38.2)

(54.5)
(54.5)

Net Cash flow


Cash and Cash Equivalent at the beginning
Closing Cash/ Cash Equivalent

99.7
105.1
204.8

(77.6)
204.8
127.3

46.6
127.3
173.9

60.2
173.9
234.0

(29.3)
234.0
204.8

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 46: Ratio analysis (standalone)


FY11

FY12

FY13E

FY14E

FY15E

25.2
25.8
251.8
30.1

29.4
30.1
274.3
29.6

26.4
27.2
294.6
25.0

21.3
22.1
310.9
24.7

34.6
35.6
337.4
44.4

Operating Ratios
EBITDA / Total Operating Income
PAT / Total Operating Income

25.8
21.6

25.8
25.6

24.8
26.2

24.2
20.8

31.4
24.5

Return Ratios
RoE
RoCE
RoIC

10.0
10.7
13.0

10.7
9.2
10.2

9.0
7.2
8.2

6.8
6.7
8.0

10.3
11.4
13.1

Valuation Ratios
EV / EBITDA
P/E
EV / Net Sales
Sales / Equity
Market Cap / Sales
Price to Book Value

12.5
15.6
3.2
0.5
3.4
1.6

13.9
13.4
3.6
0.4
3.5
1.4

16.1
14.9
4.0
0.3
4.0
1.3

15.6
18.5
3.8
0.3
3.9
1.3

8.9
11.4
2.8
0.4
2.8
1.2

Turnover Ratios
Asset turnover
Debtors Turnover Ratio

0.5
2.6

0.4
5.3

0.3
5.2

0.3
5.2

0.4
5.2

Creditors Turnover Ratio

3.1

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

Solvency Ratios
Debt / Equity
Current Ratio
Quick Ratio
Debt / EBITDA

0.1
4.9
4.0
0.8

0.2
5.1
3.9
1.4

0.1
6.6
4.3
1.8

0.1
6.9
4.6
1.8

0.1
5.7
4.1
1.0

Per Share Data


EPS
Cash EPS
BV
Operating profit per share

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 24

Tables and ratios (Consolidated)


Exhibit 47: Profit & loss account (consolidated)
(| Crore)
Net Sales
Other Income
Total Revenue

FY11
611.9
15.1
627.0

FY12
701.3
27.1
728.4

FY13E
732.4
43.4
775.8

FY14E
914.4
27.2
941.6

FY15E
1,140.5
34.0
1,174.5

Operating Expenditure
Employee Expenses
Administrative Expenses
Total Operating Expenditure

365.8
22.6
47.1
435.5

427.2
29.4
53.4
509.9

442.8
30.9
56.0
529.7

550.1
32.4
58.8
641.3

665.9
34.0
61.8
761.7

EBITDA
Interest
PBDT
Depreciation
PBT
Total Tax
PAT before MI
Minority Interest
PAT

176.4
11.3
180.2
8.1
172.1
58.7
113.4
5.2
108.2

191.3
21.1
197.4
9.3
188.1
59.3
128.8
9.7
119.1

202.7
43.8
202.4
14.4
188.0
64.7
123.3
18.0
105.3

273.1
53.5
246.8
16.8
230.1
81.7
148.4
30.7
117.7

378.8
50.5
362.4
19.2
343.2
119.0
224.2
38.6
185.6

26.5

29.2

25.8

28.8

45.4

EPS

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 48: Balance sheet (consolidated)


(| Crore)
Equity Capital
ESOP
Reserve and Surplus
Total Shareholders funds

FY11
40.8
0.6
1,023.7
1,065.2

FY12
40.8
0.8
1,113.4
1,155.1

FY13E
40.8
0.8
1,193.5
1,235.2

FY14E
40.8
0.8
1,283.1
1,324.8

FY15E
40.8
0.8
1,424.3
1,466.0

83.0

100.2

100.2

100.2

100.2

543.9

666.6

740.2

695.6

638.9

15.3

21.5

21.5

21.5

21.5

1,707.4

1,943.4

2,097.2

2,142.1

2,226.6

210.6
31.2
179.4
29.0
16.7

234.9
40.0
194.9
29.0
8.1

254.9
54.4
200.5
29.0
8.1

295.9
71.2
224.8
29.0
8.1

338.0
90.3
247.7
29.0
8.1

87.4

174.8

174.8

174.8

174.8

Inventory
Debtors
Loans and Advances
Cash
Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Creditors
Provisions
Net Current Assets

936.4
173.3
293.3
237.7
64.8
1,705.5
271.5
39.2
1,394.8

1,049.1
197.5
366.9
150.2
88.6
1,852.3
272.0
43.7
1,536.6

1,226.1
202.6
324.4
168.0
70.9
1,992.0
265.9
41.3
1,684.8

1,301.1
231.5
281.2
154.9
73.8
2,042.5
290.9
46.2
1,705.4

1,209.3
232.3
442.8
169.9
105.9
2,160.3
332.5
60.8
1,767.0

Total Assets

1,707.4

1,943.4

2,097.2

2,142.1

2,226.6

Minority Interest
Total Debt
Deferred Tax Liability
Total Liabilities
Total Gross Block
Less Total Accumulated Depreciation
Net Block
Goodwill on Consolidation
Total CWIP
Investments

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 25

Exhibit 49: Cash flow statement (consolidated)


(| Crore)
Profit after Tax
Depreciation
Cash Flow before working capital changes

FY11
108.2
8.1
127.6

FY12
119.1
9.3
149.5

FY13E
105.3
14.4
163.5

FY14E
117.7
16.8
188.0

FY15E
185.6
19.2
255.2

Net Increase in Current Assets


Net Increase in Current Liabilities
Net cash flow from operating activities

(207.2)
65.5
(14.0)

(234.3)
5.0
(79.8)

(121.9)
(8.5)
33.2

(63.7)
29.9
154.1

(102.7)
56.2
208.6

(Purchase)/Sale of Fixed Assets


Other Investments
Others
Net Cash flow from Investing Activities

(28.5)
60.7
6.4
38.7

(16.2)
(87.4)
23.4
(80.2)

(20.0)
0.0
(20.0)

(41.0)
(41.0)

(42.1)
(42.1)

Change in Equity Capital


Change in Loan Fund
Others
Net Cash flow from Financing Activities

0.0
123.2
(43.1)
80.1

122.7
(50.3)
72.4

73.6
(68.9)
4.7

(44.7)
(81.6)
(126.3)

(56.7)
(94.8)
(151.5)

Net Cash flow


Opening cash & cash equivalent
Closing cash & cash equivalent

104.8
133.0
237.7

(87.5)
237.7
150.2

17.8
150.2
168.0

(13.2)
168.0
154.9

15.0
154.9
169.9

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 50: Ratio analysis (consolidated)


(Year-end March)
Per Share Data
EPS
Cash EPS
BV
Operating profit per share

FY11

FY12

FY13E

FY14E

FY15E

26.5
28.5
260.9
43.2

29.2
31.4
282.9
46.9

25.8
29.3
302.5
49.6

28.8
32.9
324.4
66.9

45.4
50.1
359.0
92.8

Operating Ratios
EBITDA / Total Operating Income
PAT / Total Operating Income

28.8
17.7

27.3
17.0

27.7
14.4

29.9
12.9

33.2
16.3

Return Ratios
RoE
RoCE
RoIC

10.2
9.9
11.7

10.3
9.5
10.3

8.5
9.1
9.9

8.9
12.1
13.1

12.7
16.3
17.7

Valuation Ratios
EV / EBITDA
P/E
EV / Net Sales
Sales / Equity
Market Cap / Sales
Price to Book Value

11.0
14.9
3.2
0.6
2.7
1.5

11.2
13.5
3.1
0.6
2.3
1.4

10.9
15.3
3.0
0.6
2.2
1.3

8.0
13.7
2.4
0.7
1.8
1.2

5.6
8.7
1.8
0.8
1.4
1.1

Turnover Ratios
Asset turnover
Debtors Turnover Ratio
Creditors Turnover Ratio

0.4
3.5
2.3

0.4
3.6
2.6

0.4
3.6
2.8

0.4
3.9
3.1

0.5
4.9
3.4

Solvency Ratios
Debt / Equity
Current Ratio
Quick Ratio
Debt / EBITDA

0.5
5.5
2.5
3.1

0.6
5.9
2.5
3.5

0.6
6.5
2.5
3.7

0.5
6.1
2.2
2.5

0.4
5.5
2.4
1.7

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 26

RATING RATIONALE

ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns


ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them
as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional
target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock.
Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction;
Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively;
Hold: Up to +/-10%;
Sell: -10% or more;

Pankaj Pandey

Head Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,


ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No. 7, MIDC,
Andheri (East)
Mumbai 400 093
research@icicidirect.com
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
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research report accurately reflect our personal views about any and all of the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to
the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Analysts aren't registered as research analysts by FINRA and might not be an associated person of the ICICI Securities Inc.

Disclosures:
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The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and
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ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 27

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