Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Rating Matrix
Rating
Buy
Target
| 505
Target Period
12-15 months
Potential Upside
28%
| 394
FY12
14.6
8.5
10.1
10.1
FY13E
4.4
5.9
(11.5)
(11.5)
FY14E
24.9
34.7
11.8
11.8
FY15E
24.7
38.7
57.6
57.6
FY14E
13.7
17.5
8.0
1.2
8.9
12.1
FY15E
8.7
11.1
5.6
1.1
12.7
16.3
P/E
Target P/E
EV / EBITDA
P/BV
RoNW
RoCE
FY13E
15.3
19.6
10.9
1.3
8.5
9.1
Stock Data
Bloomberg/Reuters Code
Sensex
Average volumes
Market Cap (| crore)
52 week H/L
MLIFE IN / MALD.NS
19,663.6
44,960.0
1,633.7
435 / 250
40.8
51.1
26.6
5.2
1M
(2.8)
5.3
(3.3)
5.6
3M
0.3
9.7
9.5
2.8
6M
21.0
8.9
19.5
17.6
12M
60.9
26.5
32.1
87.2
Price movement
6,300
480
5,550
400
4,800
320
4,050
240
3,300
160
2,550
1,800
Jan-12
80
Apr-12
Jul-12
Price (R.H.S)
Oct-12
Jan-13
Nifty (L.H.S)
Analysts name
Deepak Purswani, CFA
deepak.purswani@icicisecurities.com
Bhupendra Tiwary
bhupendra.tiwary@icicisecurities.com
At the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.6x its FY14E potential NAV and 1.2x
FY14E P/BV. Considering the quality of management and comfortable
leverage position, we believe current valuations are attractive. We are
initiating coverage on MLDL with a BUY recommendation with a target
price of | 505 (0.7x FY14E potential NAV).
Exhibit 1: Financial metrics (consolidated)
(Year-end March)
Net Sales (| crore)
EBITDA (| crore)
Net Profit (| crore)
EPS (|)
P/E (x)
Price / Book (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
RoCE (%)
RoE (%)
FY11
611.9
176.4
108.2
26.5
14.9
1.5
11.0
9.9
10.2
FY12
701.3
191.3
119.1
29.2
13.5
1.4
11.2
9.5
10.3
FY13E
732.4
202.7
105.3
25.8
15.3
1.3
10.9
9.1
8.5
FY14E
914.4
273.1
117.7
28.8
13.7
1.2
8.0
12.1
8.9
FY15E
1,140.5
378.8
185.6
45.4
8.7
1.1
5.6
16.3
12.7
Company background
Holding (%)
Promoter
51.1
FII
26.6
DII
5.2
Others
17.2
25.6
25.6
26.6
25.7
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.9
5.2
5.9
5.8
5.0
0.0
Q3FY12
Q4F Y12
F II
Q1F Y13
DII
Q2FY13
Incorporated as a private
limited company
Mar, 1999
Aug, 1999
Aug, 2008
Oct, 2007
FY06
Dec, 2002
74%
Mahindra Bebenco
Developers Ltd.
30%
74%
Mahindra World City
Jaipur
Mahindra Residential
Developers Ltd
26%
49%
B.E.Billimoria
RIICO
ARCH Capital
51%
Mahindra Integrated
Township Ltd.
6%
83%
26%
Page 2
Investment Rationale
Residential portfolio robust project pipeline
MLDL holds total land bank of 22.2 mn sq ft as on Q2FY13. Out of these,
14.1 mn sq ft in Chennai is held through its subsidiaries (MITL & MRDL
subsidiaries) and rest is largely held under the MLDL umbrella.
Furthermore, the company currently has ongoing projects of 4.0 mn sq ft
(Chennai - 1.6 mn sq ft, Mumbai 0.8 mn sq ft & Nagpur- 0.4 mn sq ft). It
has Forthcoming projects of 6.1 mn sq ft (Chennai 1.9 mn sq ft, Pune
1.5 mn sq ft, Hyderabad 1.1 mn sq ft & Nagpur 1.1 mn sq ft), which
will hold key for the growth of residential portfolio, going ahead.
30%
70%
Residential
Others
million sq ft
Chennai
Mumbai
Alibaug
Pune
NCR
Nagpur
Hyderabad
Nasik
Bangalore
Total
Company
MITL & MRDL
MLDL
MLDL
MLDL
MLDL
MBDL
MLDL
MLDL
MLDL
Ongoing
1.6
0.8
0.2
1.0
0.4
Forthcoming
1.9
0.3
0.2
1.5
Land bank
10.5
0.7
Total
14.0
1.7
0.2
2.0
1.0
1.5
1.1
0.6
22.2
0.3
1.1
1.1
0.6
4.0
6.1
12.1
MLDL- Sales volume muted in H1FY13; new launches provide visibility in FY15E
In the standalone property portfolio, MLDL has ongoing projects of 2.4
mn sq ft. Out of which, already 80% area is sold. Given lesser area
available for sale in H1FY13, MLDL sales have been muted in H1FY13.
Going ahead, MLDL is expecting to launch 3.5 mn sq ft in the coming
quarters. Out of these, the company has already launched a phase in
Hyderabad (total 1.1 mn sq ft) in December 2012. Furthermore, MLDL
also has MoUs of about 4.5 mn sq ft of residential land under title due
diligence. This would enable the company to add much needed land for
future growth.
Location
Mumbai
Nagpur*
NCR
Pune
Total Ongoing Project
Project Name
Eminente Aspen
Eminente Angelica
Splendour -II
GE Garden #
Bloomdale IA
Bloomdale IB
Aura- II
Aura- III
Aura- IV
Aura- V
Antheia - Ph I
Total Development
launched
mn sq ft units
0.2
68
0.2
68
0.4
230
0.1
60
0.2
210
0.2
98
0.2
166
0.2
110
0.3
141
0.3
110
0.2
200
2.4
% units sold
100%
100%
100%
7%
68%
42%
100%
100%
94%
86%
22%
% completion
83%
75%
76%
21%
16%
63%
54%
40%
37%
Estimated
completion date
Dec-12
Sep-13
Mar-13
Dec-14
Apr-13
Mar-14
Sep-13
Dec-14
Jun-15
Jun-15
Mar-16
Page 3
Location
Mumbai
Project Name
GE Gardens, Kanjurmarg
Alibaug
Antheia subsequent phases
Pune
Sopan Baug
Avadi affordable housing
Chennai
Hyderabad Kukatapally
Nagpur
Bloomdale new phases
Total
Mn sq ft
0.3
0.2
1.4
0.1
0.7
1.1
1.1
4.9
Location
Nasik
Project Name
Satpur Project
Pune
0.3
0.6
Kandivli Project
0.1
1.6
Mumbai
Total
Mn sq ft
0.6
Location
Chennai
Total
Launch Date
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-10
Dec-10
Sep-12
Dec-10
Jan-11
Last base
price (|/sq
%
ft) % units sold completion
4,640
44%
35%
4,634
35%
30%
3,740
100%
37%
3,740
77%
20%
3,780
3%
0%
2,900
100%
48%
3,320
73%
9%
Estimated
completion
date
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-13
Sep-14
Oct-14
Sep-12
Jun-14
10.5
in mn sq ft
9
6
3
0.5
0.3
0.4
MWC Chennai
Residential
Iris Court
Aquality
Forthcoming
MWC Chennai
Residential
Landbank
Page 4
We highlight that the sales volume and absorption trend of the Chennai
residential market has been buoyant in the recent past. Nonetheless, we
remain conservative in our sales volume estimates and factor in
absorption of the entire area over 10-12 years (till FY25).
5.0
5.3
15
3.9
10
5
Sales volume
Sep-12
Jun-12
Mar-12
Dec-11
Sep-11
Y-o-Y (RHS)
6.6 20
6.5
(%)
5.0
5.5
Jun-11
Sep-12
Jun-12
Mar-12
Dec-11
Sep-11
Jun-11
0
Mar-11
2900
Dec-10
5
Sep-10
3250
Jun-10
10
5.5
Mar-11
3600
7.4
Dec-10
15
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0 3.2
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Sep-10
3950
20
(mn sq ft)
25
(%)
4300
Jun-10
(|/sq feet)
Exhibit 10: Chennai property prices increase over last couple of years
Absorption (RHS)
2.1
2.0
1.5
1.2
1.5
1.2
0.9
1.0
0.5
1.4
0.3
0.4
FY08
FY09
0.4
1200
1000
800
600
400
(| crore)
(million sq feet)
2.5
200
0
0.0
FY10
FY11
Area Sold
Page 5
1200
81.7
1000
400
200
68
138
0
23
29
54
30 71.3
81
85
126
477
469
411
417
FY11
FY12
FY13E
FY14E
68.7
75
(%)
(| crore)
800
600
80
78.6
68.7
577
70
65
60
Standalone
MRDL
MITL
FY15E
26%
74%
Industrial Development
Others
MLDL has positioned its SEZ portfolio well with the three
SEZs in different phases of development. While the
Chennai SEZ totalling ~1550 acres is in a mature and
monetisation stage (where the company is now reaping
the benefits of residential development), the Jaipur SEZ is
in the development phase while North Chennai is in the
initial phase
MLDL enjoys the early mover advantage in the SEZ business. MLDL is the
first private player that has developed Chennai SEZ totalling ~1550 acres
(saleable area - 1125 acres, industrial - 822 acres and residential &
commercial: 303 acres) Leveraging on this experience, MLDLs Jaipur
SEZ aggregating ~3000 acres (saleable area - ~2064 acres, industrial 1350 acres and residential & social area - 714 acres) is also progressing
very well. Additionally, the company is also planning its second integrated
business city in north Chennai over 750 acres where land acquisition for
~500 acres has been completed so far. We also like MLDL SEZ portfolio
given the fact it has exposure in every stage of SEZ. Hence, the cash
flows generated from mature & monetisation stage SEZ such as Chennai
will help it in development of North Chennai & Jaipur SEZ.
Additionally, MLDL has also entered into two MoUs with the Gujarat
Government at the Vibrant Gujarat summit. While the first MoU is for
the development of a ~3,000 acres integrated business city at the Dholera
Special Investment region, located in the proposed Delhi Mumbai
Industrial Corridor, the second MoU is for the development of an
industrial park of ~500 acres near Ahmedabad. We highlight that we have
not considered the above two planned SEZs into our valuation
considering that they are still at a nascent stage.
Land acquisition
Regulatory clearance & approval process
0.2
Setting up of infrastructure
Development of industrial units and
getting anchor clients on board
Promotion of investment, export and
employment creation happens during this
phase
Page 6
FY15E
FY14E
30.0
(%)
FY13E
FY12
FY11
50.0
25.0
20.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
(| crore)
MWC- Chennai
300.0
350.0
15.0
FY11
MWC - Jaipur
FY12
FY13E
FY14E
FY15E
Page 7
Acres
Sold/Leased (%)
850.0
90
of which
SEZ
442.0
IT
297.5
Auto Ancillary
93.5
51.0
DTA
408.0
Residential
241.0
100
Commercial
43.0
26
Saleable Area
1134.0
57
50
44
40
60
61
49
38
30
20
10
0
FY08
The business zone in the project has 61 customers (40 of
whom are operational) and provides employment to
~29,000 people
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
H1FY13
(No.s people)
30000
25000
20000
20000
23000
12000
15000
10000
29000
7500
5000
0
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
H1FY13
Page 8
Auto SEZ
Atos Origin*
Brakes India
Alpha Packaging
Capgemini India
Madras Engineering
American Axle
Musashi Paints
Electronic Recycling
Armstrong
Mecaplast India
Sundaram Clayton
B. Braun Medical
Netafim
Infosys Ltd
Sundaram Fasteners
BMW India
NTN Corporation
Mastek
Timken Engineering
CII
Parker Hannifin
MindTree*
DePuy Medical
Sakazaki Engraving
Federal Mogul
Sanwa Synergy
ShardaMotor Industries
Renault Nissan*
Tech Mahindra*
Apparel SEZ
Freight Systems
VIPL
AI Enterprises
Fujitec India
SMC Pneumatic
Wipro
Bengal Hangers
Galipoglu Hidromas
Capella Fashions
Guangdong Greatoo
Tridon Automotive
TTK Healthcare
Social
Intermode
Duet Hotels
Leather Craft
Ingersoll Rand
JSP Hospitals
Linea Fashions
JCF Valves
Rico Group
JSP Foams
Srinivasa Fashions
Kryolan Cosmetics
BP Petrol Station
Slam Apparel
Timex Garments
A1
115316
115316
A2
115316
99884
B1
100025
30291
Building
Page 9
Acres
Leased (%)
1350.0
41
of which
SEZ
972.0
DTA
378.0
Residential
714.0
Saleable Area
2064.0
Handicrafts SEZ
GAD Industries
Dynamic Powertech
Gravita
EXL Service*
Jaipur Crafts
SystweakSoftware*
Kirat Crafts
India Agrovision
Genpact*
Knitpro International
Girnar Software
OrviDesign
Marsons Industries
Infosys BPO
Rajdhani Craft
Poly Medicure
Infosys Ltd.
RatanTextiles
QH Talbros
Isys Softech
Rediprint International
Tijaria International
Nagarro Sortware
Veto Electricals
Nucleus Software
Rama Handicrafts
DTA
Wipro
ICICI Bank
ConnexxionsIT Services
Rustic Furniture
Tech Mahindra
Page 10
Page 11
Implementation of this bill will definitely hike the cost of land for
developers. However, we believe MLDL that has already acquired almost
its complete land requirement in Mahindra City, Jaipur will benefit in
terms of early mover advantage. Furthermore, with the implementation of
the bill, to the extent it gets more and more difficult to add land, MWC
Jaipur could see better interest in terms of price and demand.
Additionally, the company has already acquired ~ 500 acres out of 750
acres for MWC North Chennai, which implies it would not have to shell
out a higher price for the same.
At the parent level also, MLDL has a strong balance sheet and is currently
sitting on a net cash of | 86.6 crore at the standalone level (inclusive of
current investment of ~| 204.3 crore) as on Q2FY13. We believe that
superior net debt to equity vis--vis peers assures timely execution and
provides significant scope for growth, going ahead.
Exhibit 26: Comfortable debt equity position at consolidated level ensures timely execution
0.6
0.4
(x)
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.0
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13E
FY14E
FY15E
Debt/Equity
Page 12
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.8
1.8
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
(0.4)
-0.2
-0.1
0.9
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
1.1
1.1
0.0
0.9
0.4
0.5
0.8
2.1
(x)
1.2
(0.8)
Godrej Properties
DLF
Oberoi Realty
FY09
FY10
FY11
Sobha Developers
FY12
Mahindra Lifespace
H1FY13
Page 13
Financials
Consolidated revenue to grow at 17.6% CAGR during FY12-15E
We expect MLDLs consolidated net sales to grow at 17.6% CAGR during
FY12-15E led by a ramp-up in residential sales (both standalone and other
subsidiaries) and robust growth in MWC Jaipur.
While sales growth for standalone residential properties will be moderate
at 7.2% CAGR during FY12-15E (major bump up to be seen only in FY15
with projects reaching the revenue threshold in that year), the robust
growth in other residential properties (MITL, MRDL, etc) would prop up
the consolidated revenue growth. Furthermore, the ramp up in MWC
Jaipur and initiation of north Chennai leasing would also contribute to the
topline at the consolidated level.
Exhibit 28: Consolidated revenue growth trend
1,140.5
1200
17.6% CAGR
1000
We expect revenues to grow at a CAGR of 17.6% in FY1215E from | 70.1.3 crore to | 1141 crore
(| crore)
800
611.9
701.3
732.4
FY12
FY13E
914.4
600
400
200
0
FY11
FY14E
FY15E
(| crore)
1000
85
800
600
400
0
23
41
68
29
54
90
58
477
469
30
81
132
126
173
76
112
411
417
FY13E
MWC - Jaipur
FY14E
MRDL MITL
217
138
577
200
FY11
Standalone
FY12
MWC - Chennai
FY15E
Others
Page 14
400
35
350
273.1
250
200
176.4
30
202.7
191.3
(%)
(| crore)
300
150
25
100
50
0
20
FY11
FY12
FY13E
EBITDA
FY14E
FY15E
Margin (RHS)
185.6
180
160
(| crore)
140
120
108.2
119.1
105.3
117.7
100
80
60
40
20
0
FY11
FY12
FY13E
FY14E
FY15E
Page 15
16.3
(%)
14
The improvement in return ratios will mainly be seen in
FY14E onwards driven by a sharp bump up in earnings
12
10
8
10.2
9.9
10.3
12.1
9.1
9.5
12.7
8.9
8.5
6
FY11
FY12
FY13E
RoNW
FY14E
FY15E
RoCE
Page 16
Page 17
Valuation
At the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.6x its FY14E potential NAV and 1.2x
FY14E P/BV. Considering the quality of management and better leverage
position, we believe the current valuations are attractive. We are initiating
coverage on MLDL with a BUY recommendation with a target price of
| 505 (0.7x FY14E potential NAV). We have considered a discounting rate
of 15% for the SEZ and real estate business. To value the commercial
property such as Evolve IT Park and Canopy, we have used the cap rate of
11%. Based on these assumptions, our FY14E potential NAV for MLDL
work outs to | 708/share and we derive our target price at | 505/share
(0.7x FY14E potential NAV) as we have not incorporated the residential
development at Jaipur in our NAV; the success of which would largely
hinges upon the Jaipur SEZ. We have valued MLDL on the NAV
methodology as this methodology captures the true value from its long
term nature of the SEZ and real estate business.
Mn sq
ft/Acres
Chennai
MWC - Chennai & North Chennai
SEZ (in Acres)
NAV
Value
MLD (%)
623.7
Stake value
Value / share
518.5
127.0
NAV
Multiple
Target Valuation
Value
MLD (%)
579.4
Stake value
Value / share
482.0
118.0
Canopy
MITL
MRDL
Avadi
2300
0.1
11.9
1.46
0.72
150.3
11.5
314.8
127.7
19.4
83
83
96
49
100
124.8
9.5
302.2
62.6
19.4
30.6
2.3
74.0
15.3
4.8
1.0x
1.0x
0.9x
0.9x
1.0x
150.3
11.5
283.3
114.9
19.4
83
83
96
49
100
124.8
9.5
272.0
56.3
19.4
30.6
2.3
66.6
13.8
4.8
MWC Jaipur
MWC Jaipur SEZ (in Acres)
Evolve IT park - Operational
Evolve IT park - Development
Residential Area
3000
0.4
1.0
21.8
1249
408
107.3
18.3
715.7
74
74
74
100
1111
302.0
79.4
13.5
715.7
272.0
74.0
19.4
3.3
175.3
1.0x
1.0x
0.9x
0.0
532
408.2
107.3
16.4
0.0
74
74
74
100
394
302.0
79.4
12.2
0.0
96.4
74.0
19.4
3.0
0.0
Mumbai
Eminente Aspen Goregaon
Eminente Angelica Goregaon
Splendour -II Bhandup
GE Garden # Kanjurmarg
Thane
Kandivli
1.5
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.1
0.6
0.1
350.5
8.1
12.0
20.1
130.9
138.5
40.9
100
100
100
100
100
100
350.5
8.1
12.0
20.1
130.9
138.5
40.9
85.8
2.0
2.9
4.9
32.1
33.9
10.0
1.0x
1.0x
1.0x
1.0x
1.0x
1.0x
350.5
8.1
12.0
20.1
130.9
138.5
40.9
100
100
100
100
100
100
350.5
8.1
12.0
20.1
130.9
138.5
40.9
85.8
2.0
2.9
4.9
32.1
33.9
10.0
NCR- Aura
1.0
58.07
100
58.1
14.2
1.0x
58.1
100
58.1
14.2
Pune
2.0
164.9
100
164.9
40.4
1.0x
164.9
100
164.9
40.4
Hyderabad
1.1
211.1
100
211.1
51.7
0.8x
158.3
100
158.3
38.8
Nagpur
1.5
171.8
70
120.3
29.5
1.0x
171.8
70
120.3
29.5
Alibaug
0.2
152.5
100
152.5
37.3
1.0x
152.5
100
152.5
37.3
Nasik
0.6
119.4
100
119.4
29.2
0.8x
95.5
100
95.5
23.4
86.9
100
86.9
21.3
1.0x
86.9
100
86.9
21.3
2892.8
708.4
2062.7
505.1
3188.3
2349.9
Page 18
IT Park
4%
IT Park
5%
Net Cash
4%
Net Cash
3%
Residential
78%
SEZ
15%
Hyderabad
7%
Others
17%
Jaipur
38%
SEZ
21%
Mumbai
12%
Residential
70%
Chennai
18%
Hyderabad
8%
Mumbai
17%
Jaipur
19%
Others
22%
Chennai
23%
Page 19
EPS
Price/Earnings(x)
RoE (%)
FY12
FY13E
FY14E
FY12
FY13E
FY14E
39204
9.6
9.6
11.3
21.2
23.9
20.4
6.8
6.2
Oberoi Realty
8891
14.1
15.9
29.0
19.2
17.1
9.3
12.4
Godrej Properties
4608
18.7
18.2
29.8
40.2
36.3
22.1
DLF
EV / EBITDA (x)
FY12
FY13E
FY14E
FY12
FY13E
FY14E
7.0
1.6
1.5
1.4
15.0
14.3
13.2
12.5
18.8
2.4
2.1
1.8
15.7
11.9
5.5
13.6
13.0
18.9
5.2
4.5
3.9
62.7
32.2
18.0
Sobha Developers
3785
21.0
23.0
32.2
18.4
16.8
12.0
10.3
10.4
13.2
1.9
1.7
1.6
10.6
9.2
6.5
Mahindra Lifespace
1634
29.2
25.8
28.8
13.5
15.3
13.7
10.3
8.5
8.9
1.4
1.3
1.2
11.2
7.0
5.5
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Price
P/BV 2.5
P/BV 2
P/BV 1.5
P/BV 1
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Oct-10
Jul-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
Oct-09
Jul-09
Apr-09
Jan-09
Oct-08
Jul-08
Apr-08
P/BV 0.5
Page 20
Exhibit 40: Assumption for realisation & construction cost for FY13E
Realisation/psf
FY2013E
Construction cost/psf
MITL
MRDL
Avadi
3.0
1.3
3320
4147
2500
0.3
0.3
2100
2144
1800
MWC Jaipur
MWC Jaipur SEZ *
Evolve IT park - Operational**
Evolve IT park - Development**
Residential Area
1.3
30
30
4000
0.3
NA
2000
2500
8,200
10,747
8000
11000
3800
3000
3000
3000
NCR- Aura
4375
2000
Pune
4500
2500
Hyderabad
3200
1800
Nagpur
2979
1500
Alibaug
10000
3500
2500
1500
Chennai
MWC Chennai*
MWC North Chennai*
Mumbai
Splendour -II Bhandup
GE Garden # Kanjurmarg
Thane
Kandivli
Nasik
Page 21
Exhibit 41: Sensitivity to realisation & construction cost escalation per annum
Realisation escalation % p.a.
Construction cost
escalation % p.a.
505
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
3%
480.6
509.0
539.0
570.6
603.9
4%
464.3
492.7
522.7
554.3
587.6
5%
446.8
475.2
505.1
536.7
570.0
6%
427.9
456.3
486.3
517.8
551.2
7%
407.6
436.0
466.0
497.6
530.9
13.0%
14.0%
15.0%
16.0%
17.0%
505.1
505.1
505.1
505.1
505.1
Page 22
FY11
476.6
30.3
506.8
FY12
469.0
52.2
521.1
FY13E
411.1
68.0
479.1
FY14E
416.8
50.0
466.8
FY15E
577.0
55.0
632.0
Operating Expenditure
Employee Expenses
Administrative Expenses
Total Operating Expenditure
313.7
15.9
24.2
353.8
302.0
20.9
25.0
347.9
258.5
23.0
27.5
309.0
260.3
25.3
30.2
315.9
334.4
27.9
33.3
395.6
EBITDA
Interest
PBDT
Depreciation
PBT
Total Tax
PAT
122.7
1.2
151.9
2.5
149.4
46.3
103.0
121.0
3.0
170.2
2.7
167.6
47.4
120.2
102.2
10.8
159.4
3.2
156.2
48.4
107.8
101.0
18.0
133.0
3.5
129.5
42.7
86.8
181.4
21.6
214.8
3.8
211.1
69.7
141.4
25.2
29.4
26.4
21.3
34.6
EPS
FY11
40.8
0.6
986.8
1,028.3
FY12
40.8
0.8
1,078.5
1,120.2
FY13E
40.8
0.8
1,161.2
1,202.9
FY14E
40.8
0.8
1,227.8
1,269.4
FY15E
40.8
0.8
1,336.3
1,378.0
100.0
170.0
180.0
180.0
180.0
0.9
(0.3)
(0.3)
(0.3)
(0.3)
1,129.2
1,289.8
1,382.5
1,449.1
1,557.6
48.3
16.4
31.9
362.1
168.7
182.0
333.0
204.8
34.8
923.3
152.9
35.3
735.1
47.7
18.6
29.1
448.6
233.6
88.3
463.5
127.3
97.6
1,010.3
156.6
41.5
812.2
52.7
21.8
30.9
388.6
397.5
78.8
405.5
173.9
78.8
1,134.6
135.2
36.4
963.0
57.7
25.2
32.5
388.6
396.9
79.9
411.1
234.0
79.9
1,202.0
137.0
36.9
1,028.1
62.7
29.0
33.7
388.6
380.9
110.7
569.1
204.8
110.7
1,376.1
189.7
51.0
1,135.3
1,129.2
1,289.8
1,382.5
1,449.1
1,557.6
Total Debt
Deferred Tax Liability
Total Liabilities
Total Gross Block
Less Total Accumulated Depreciation
Net Block
Other Investments
Inventory
Debtors
Loans and Advances
Cash
Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Creditors
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Total Assets
Page 23
FY11
103.0
2.5
106.7
FY12
120.2
2.7
125.8
FY13E
107.8
3.2
121.7
FY14E
86.8
3.5
108.2
FY15E
141.4
3.8
166.8
(139.2)
22.6
(10.0)
(164.5)
9.9
(28.8)
(77.7)
(26.6)
17.5
(7.3)
2.4
103.4
(203.4)
66.8
30.2
(2.1)
47.4
(1.0)
44.4
0.2
(86.5)
(1.2)
(87.5)
(5.0)
60.0
55.0
(5.0)
(5.0)
(5.0)
(5.0)
0.0
100.0
(34.7)
65.3
70.0
(31.3)
38.7
10.0
(35.9)
(25.9)
(38.2)
(38.2)
(54.5)
(54.5)
99.7
105.1
204.8
(77.6)
204.8
127.3
46.6
127.3
173.9
60.2
173.9
234.0
(29.3)
234.0
204.8
FY12
FY13E
FY14E
FY15E
25.2
25.8
251.8
30.1
29.4
30.1
274.3
29.6
26.4
27.2
294.6
25.0
21.3
22.1
310.9
24.7
34.6
35.6
337.4
44.4
Operating Ratios
EBITDA / Total Operating Income
PAT / Total Operating Income
25.8
21.6
25.8
25.6
24.8
26.2
24.2
20.8
31.4
24.5
Return Ratios
RoE
RoCE
RoIC
10.0
10.7
13.0
10.7
9.2
10.2
9.0
7.2
8.2
6.8
6.7
8.0
10.3
11.4
13.1
Valuation Ratios
EV / EBITDA
P/E
EV / Net Sales
Sales / Equity
Market Cap / Sales
Price to Book Value
12.5
15.6
3.2
0.5
3.4
1.6
13.9
13.4
3.6
0.4
3.5
1.4
16.1
14.9
4.0
0.3
4.0
1.3
15.6
18.5
3.8
0.3
3.9
1.3
8.9
11.4
2.8
0.4
2.8
1.2
Turnover Ratios
Asset turnover
Debtors Turnover Ratio
0.5
2.6
0.4
5.3
0.3
5.2
0.3
5.2
0.4
5.2
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
Solvency Ratios
Debt / Equity
Current Ratio
Quick Ratio
Debt / EBITDA
0.1
4.9
4.0
0.8
0.2
5.1
3.9
1.4
0.1
6.6
4.3
1.8
0.1
6.9
4.6
1.8
0.1
5.7
4.1
1.0
Page 24
FY11
611.9
15.1
627.0
FY12
701.3
27.1
728.4
FY13E
732.4
43.4
775.8
FY14E
914.4
27.2
941.6
FY15E
1,140.5
34.0
1,174.5
Operating Expenditure
Employee Expenses
Administrative Expenses
Total Operating Expenditure
365.8
22.6
47.1
435.5
427.2
29.4
53.4
509.9
442.8
30.9
56.0
529.7
550.1
32.4
58.8
641.3
665.9
34.0
61.8
761.7
EBITDA
Interest
PBDT
Depreciation
PBT
Total Tax
PAT before MI
Minority Interest
PAT
176.4
11.3
180.2
8.1
172.1
58.7
113.4
5.2
108.2
191.3
21.1
197.4
9.3
188.1
59.3
128.8
9.7
119.1
202.7
43.8
202.4
14.4
188.0
64.7
123.3
18.0
105.3
273.1
53.5
246.8
16.8
230.1
81.7
148.4
30.7
117.7
378.8
50.5
362.4
19.2
343.2
119.0
224.2
38.6
185.6
26.5
29.2
25.8
28.8
45.4
EPS
FY11
40.8
0.6
1,023.7
1,065.2
FY12
40.8
0.8
1,113.4
1,155.1
FY13E
40.8
0.8
1,193.5
1,235.2
FY14E
40.8
0.8
1,283.1
1,324.8
FY15E
40.8
0.8
1,424.3
1,466.0
83.0
100.2
100.2
100.2
100.2
543.9
666.6
740.2
695.6
638.9
15.3
21.5
21.5
21.5
21.5
1,707.4
1,943.4
2,097.2
2,142.1
2,226.6
210.6
31.2
179.4
29.0
16.7
234.9
40.0
194.9
29.0
8.1
254.9
54.4
200.5
29.0
8.1
295.9
71.2
224.8
29.0
8.1
338.0
90.3
247.7
29.0
8.1
87.4
174.8
174.8
174.8
174.8
Inventory
Debtors
Loans and Advances
Cash
Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Creditors
Provisions
Net Current Assets
936.4
173.3
293.3
237.7
64.8
1,705.5
271.5
39.2
1,394.8
1,049.1
197.5
366.9
150.2
88.6
1,852.3
272.0
43.7
1,536.6
1,226.1
202.6
324.4
168.0
70.9
1,992.0
265.9
41.3
1,684.8
1,301.1
231.5
281.2
154.9
73.8
2,042.5
290.9
46.2
1,705.4
1,209.3
232.3
442.8
169.9
105.9
2,160.3
332.5
60.8
1,767.0
Total Assets
1,707.4
1,943.4
2,097.2
2,142.1
2,226.6
Minority Interest
Total Debt
Deferred Tax Liability
Total Liabilities
Total Gross Block
Less Total Accumulated Depreciation
Net Block
Goodwill on Consolidation
Total CWIP
Investments
Page 25
FY11
108.2
8.1
127.6
FY12
119.1
9.3
149.5
FY13E
105.3
14.4
163.5
FY14E
117.7
16.8
188.0
FY15E
185.6
19.2
255.2
(207.2)
65.5
(14.0)
(234.3)
5.0
(79.8)
(121.9)
(8.5)
33.2
(63.7)
29.9
154.1
(102.7)
56.2
208.6
(28.5)
60.7
6.4
38.7
(16.2)
(87.4)
23.4
(80.2)
(20.0)
0.0
(20.0)
(41.0)
(41.0)
(42.1)
(42.1)
0.0
123.2
(43.1)
80.1
122.7
(50.3)
72.4
73.6
(68.9)
4.7
(44.7)
(81.6)
(126.3)
(56.7)
(94.8)
(151.5)
104.8
133.0
237.7
(87.5)
237.7
150.2
17.8
150.2
168.0
(13.2)
168.0
154.9
15.0
154.9
169.9
FY11
FY12
FY13E
FY14E
FY15E
26.5
28.5
260.9
43.2
29.2
31.4
282.9
46.9
25.8
29.3
302.5
49.6
28.8
32.9
324.4
66.9
45.4
50.1
359.0
92.8
Operating Ratios
EBITDA / Total Operating Income
PAT / Total Operating Income
28.8
17.7
27.3
17.0
27.7
14.4
29.9
12.9
33.2
16.3
Return Ratios
RoE
RoCE
RoIC
10.2
9.9
11.7
10.3
9.5
10.3
8.5
9.1
9.9
8.9
12.1
13.1
12.7
16.3
17.7
Valuation Ratios
EV / EBITDA
P/E
EV / Net Sales
Sales / Equity
Market Cap / Sales
Price to Book Value
11.0
14.9
3.2
0.6
2.7
1.5
11.2
13.5
3.1
0.6
2.3
1.4
10.9
15.3
3.0
0.6
2.2
1.3
8.0
13.7
2.4
0.7
1.8
1.2
5.6
8.7
1.8
0.8
1.4
1.1
Turnover Ratios
Asset turnover
Debtors Turnover Ratio
Creditors Turnover Ratio
0.4
3.5
2.3
0.4
3.6
2.6
0.4
3.6
2.8
0.4
3.9
3.1
0.5
4.9
3.4
Solvency Ratios
Debt / Equity
Current Ratio
Quick Ratio
Debt / EBITDA
0.5
5.5
2.5
3.1
0.6
5.9
2.5
3.5
0.6
6.5
2.5
3.7
0.5
6.1
2.2
2.5
0.4
5.5
2.4
1.7
Page 26
RATING RATIONALE
Pankaj Pandey
Head Research
pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com
Disclosures:
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Page 27