Future Complexity of Water Resources

Management in Bangladesh in Relation

to Climate Change

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Prepared for:
Md. Saiful Hossain
Superintending Engineer & Hydrological Adviser
to PR of Bangladesh with WMO,
Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB)

Prepared by:
Md. Akhinuzzaman (St. Id-201116012)
Abir Mohammad (St. Id-201116017)
Miraj Molla (St. Id-201116029)
Level-4, Term-2
Department of Water Resources Engineering,
Bangladesh University of Engineering and
Technology (BUET).

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Table of Contents
List of Illustrations ..........................................................................................................................3
Preface.........................................................................................................................................4
1. Introduction ...............................................................................................................................5
2. Bangladesh: Country Characteristic .........6
3. Projected Climate Change Impacts...11
3.1. Increased Flooding.11
3.2. Increased Intensity of Cyclone Winds & Precipitation.13
3.3. Increased Moisture Stress During Dry Periods ....14
3.4. Increased Salinity...16
3.5. Greater Temperature Extremes..17
4. Water Resources Management: Future Complexities..17
4.1. Background....17
4.2. Water Allocation.........18
4.3. River Basin Planning...19
4.4. Pollution Control ..19
4.5. Information Management......20
4.6. Contamination.20
4.7. Flood Control Structures & Irrigation Projects......................................................................21
4.8. Groundwater Control..22
Appendix
List of Abbreviations ....................................................................................................................23
List of References...23

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List of Illustrations:

Figure 1: Topographical Features of Bangladesh......................................................7

Figure 2: Catchment Area of Bangladesh......................................................9
Figure 3: Flood in Bangladesh.................................................................................12
Figure 4: Cyclone Sidr.14
Figure 5: Drought in Bangladesh.15
Figure 6: Salinity Intrusion in Bangladesh..16
Figure 7: Average monthly Temperature and Rainfall for Bangladesh from 19002012.........18

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Preface
Bangladesh has for some time been recognized as a particularly vulnerable country
by the international community, and has received disaster management and
adaptation support in several sectors. Issues such as climate change, land-use
changes, growing urban demand and environmental requirements continue to
influence adversely sustainable water resources development and management.

While Bangladesh has enormous amount of water flowing through it, its uneven
distribution & overabundance in monsoon often causes catastrophic floods, while
scarcity in dry season causes severe drought conditions. The inconsistencies in
climatic condition of Bangladesh has made water resources management a tough
task.

This report will begin by describing the country characteristics of Bangladesh that
make it particularly vulnerable to climate change, before outlining the main
climate change impacts that are of concern to Bangladesh. These impacts will then
be discussed in relation to the future complexities created in water resources
management.

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1. Introduction

Climate change is here, and will be with us for the long-term. For at least the next
few decades the planet is set to experience an increase in temperature and change
in rainfall patterns. However, there are no mitigation plans on the horizon that will
have more than a slight delaying effect on the process of planetary transformation
that has now begun. The empirical evidence for this is already mounting.

Bangladesh is frequently cited as one of the most vulnerable countries to climate

change because of its disadvantageous geographic location, flat and low-lying
topography, high population density, high levels of poverty, reliance of many
livelihoods on climate sensitive sectors such as agriculture and fisheries, and
inefficient institutional aspects. Many of the anticipated adverse effects of climate
change, such as sea level rise, higher temperatures, enhanced monsoon
precipitation, and an increase in cyclone intensity, will aggravate the existing
stresses that already impede development in Bangladesh, particularly by reducing
water and food security and damaging essential infrastructure. These impacts could
be extremely detrimental to the economy, the environment, national development,
and the people of Bangladesh.

On the other hand, water resource management is the activity of planning,

developing, distributing and managing the optimum use of water resources. The
field of water resources management will have to continue to adapt to the current
and future issues facing the allocation of water. With the growing uncertainties of
global climate change and the long term impacts of management actions, the

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decision-making has become even more difficult. So, new management strategies
will have to be implemented in order to avoid setbacks & complexities.

2. Bangladesh: Country Characteristics

The physical, social and economic conditions of Bangladesh are relevant to its
status as one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change.
Bangladesh is one of the largest deltas in the world, formed by a dense network of
the distributaries of the rivers Ganges, Brahmaputra, and the Meghna. According
to the latest data, Bangladesh is a riverine country with 405 rivers. Among them,
57 rivers are transboundary (54 with India, 3 with Myanmar).

The total land area is 1,47, 570 sq. km and consists mostly of low, flat land. 80%
of the total land is floodplain. About 16% of the area lies below 1.50 m of MSL,
while about 50% of the country is within 6-7 m of MSL. Only 12% area is hilly
areas, most of which lie in the extreme northwest where elevations exceed 30
meters above mean sea level. This makes the majority of Bangladesh (around 68%)
prone to flooding at least part of the year. 25-30% of the area is inundated during
normal monsoon.

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FIGURE 1

The extent of flooding is exacerbated by the sediment loads brought by the three
major Himalayan rivers, coupled with a negligible flow gradient, which increases
congestion.

Another huge problem is that Bangladeshi rivers receive runoff from a catchment
of 1.72 million sq. km, around 12 times its land area. This huge amount of water
flow is a severe factor of regular flooding in Bangladesh.

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FIGURE 2

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The societal exposure to such risks is further increased by the countrys high
population and population density. Bangladesh has a population of around 171
million people (2016 est.) with a GDP(PPP) per capita $3,581, a life expectancy at
birth of 70.65 years (2014 est.), and an adult literacy rate of only 61.5% years
(2015 est.).
In terms of climate, Bangladesh is characterized by high temperatures, heavy
rainfall, high humidity, and fairly marked seasonal variations. Although over half
of Bangladesh is north of the Tropics, the climate is characterized as tropical for
most of the year because of the effect of the Himalayan mountain chain, with a
warm, almost uniformly humid climate throughout most of the year. There are
three main seasons in Bangladesh:
a.

A hot summer season, with high temperatures (exceeding 40C for up to

10 days in the West), a high rate of evaporation, and erratic but heavy
rainfall from March to June.

b.

A hot and humid monsoon season, with temperatures ranging between

20C and 36C with heavy rainfall from June to October. This amounts
to around two thirds of the annual rainfall.

c.

A cooler and drier winter from November to March, with temperatures

ranging from 8C to 15C, with minimum temperatures of 5C in the
North.

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3. Projected Climate Change Impacts

Many of the projected impacts of climate change will reinforce the baseline
environmental, socio-economic and demographic stresses already faced by
Bangladesh. Climate change is likely to result in:
i.

Increased flooding, both in terms of extent and frequency, associated

with sea level rise, greater monsoon precipitation and increased glacial
melt.

ii.

Increased vulnerability to cyclone and storm surges.

iii.

Increased moisture stress during dry periods leading to increased drought.

iv.

Increased salinity intrusion.

v.

Greater temperature extremes.

3.1. Increased Flooding

Precipitation extremes will result in increased rainwater flooding, both because
of the increase in monsoon rains, and also because of the increased incidences of
flash floods associated with increased intensity of precipitation interrupted by
sustained dry spells, increasing the surface runoff when the rains do come.

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Sea level rise will directly result in increased coastal flooding, which will increase
in the event of storm surges. Sea level rise in Bangladesh is higher than the mean
average rate of global sea level rise over the past century, because of the effects of
tectonic subsidence. It also associated with increased riverine flooding, because it
causes more backing up of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna rivers along the
delta. This will result in increased drainage congestion due to higher water levels.

Figure 3
Higher temperatures will result in increased glacier melt, increasing runoff from
the neighboring Himalayas into the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. The recent
reports state that glaciers in the Mount Everest region have shrunk by 13 percent in
the last 50 years and the snowline has shifted upward by 590 feet (180 meters).

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More recently, precipitation (both snow and rain) has dropped by 3.9 inches (100
millimeters) and temperatures have risen 1 degree Fahrenheit (0.6 degrees Celsius)
since 1992. The researchers suspect that the glacial melting in the Everest region is
due to global warming.

3.2. Increased Intensity of Cyclone Winds &

Precipitation
The IPCC conclude that there is evidence of a 5-10% increase in intensity (wind
speed) that would contribute to enhanced storm surges and coastal flooding, and
also project a 20% increase in intensity of associated precipitation that would
contribute to flooding. Cyclone winds are likely to increase in intensity because of
the positive correlation with sea surface temperature.

In November 2007, for example, the tropical cyclone Sidr, with a 100-mile-long
front covering the breadth of the country and with winds up to 240 km per hour, hit
Bangladesh. This was noted to be an unusual occurrence given the intensity and
timing of the storm, particularly given that it occurred in the same year as two
recurrent floods. The IPCC FAR also note that climate change will be associated
with greater precipitation extremes, which includes more intense monsoonal
rainfall.

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Figure 4

3.3. Increased Moisture Stress During Dry Periods

Climate change will exacerbate drought in Bangladesh both in terms of intensity
and frequency linked to higher mean temperatures and potentially reduced dry
season precipitation. Monsoon rains produce 80% of Bangladeshs annual
precipitation, and when this is reduced, drought is a significant problem; between
1960 and 1991, a total of 19 droughts occurred in Bangladesh. The Southwest and

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Northwest regions are particularly susceptible to drought.

Figure 5

Greater precipitation extremes associated with climate change also mean less
rainfall in the dry season, which will increase water stress on those areas that
already experience water shortages, particularly in the winter months. This will be
worse for those areas that depend on glacial melt water for their main dry-season
water supply, as glaciers recede with rising temperatures.

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3.4. Increased Salinity

The availability of freshwater will be reduced by increased salinity intrusion into
fresh water sources during the low flow conditions. In the coastal regions this is
brought about by sea level rise resulting in saline water intrusion in the estuaries
and into the groundwater. The effects are exacerbated by greater evaporation and
evapotranspiration of freshwater as temperatures increase, coupled with a greater
demand for fresh water in times of water stress.

Figure 6

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3.5. Greater Temperature Extremes

Climate change is associated with hotter summers and colder winters.
Temperatures in Bangladesh have increased about 1C in May and 0.5 C in
November between 1985 and 1998, and further temperature increases are expected.
However, although the overall climate is warming, temperature extremes are
increasing, and winter temperatures as low as 5C have been recorded in January
2007, reportedly the lowest in 38 years.

4. Water Resources Management: Future

Complexities
4.1. Background
Temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall in our country is highly skewed, with
about 75 % rains falling during three monsoon months in most parts of the country.
As a result, water resources are under increasing competition because of
burgeoning population with increasing affluence demanding more water in the
form of agriculture, industry, domestic and hydropower needs.

Water management for the society today is very complex, and involves diverse
activities that are administered by different players.

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Figure 7
Some of the major components constituting present day water resources
management & their future complexities which are based on climate change
described above, are classified below:

4.2. Water Allocation

Apportioning of water to major users and uses, maintaining minimum
levels for social and environmental use, while addressing equity and development
needs of society are all integrals for water resources management.

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4.3. River Basin Planning

Growing competition for scarce water resources due to climate change has driven
major changes in the way river basin planning is undertaken. This has resulted in a
shift away from 'technical' approaches designed to maximize water availability and
led to more strategic approaches to basin planning. These approaches aim to
optimize outcomes by reconciling the competing demands of different sectors of
the economy, the natural environment, and society as a whole.

Preparing and updating the basin plan as per need by incorporating stakeholder
views on development and management priorities for the basin is a major difficulty
for proper water resources management.

4.4. Pollution Control

We are emitting such a high level of pollutants that they are causing serious global
environmental problems: climate change and ozone depletion. Managing pollution
using socially acceptable principles and appropriate incentives to mitigate
environmental and social impacts is a challenge for future water professionals.

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4.5. Information Management

Management of water resources is a sharing of responsibility and role among
stakeholders. Stakeholders such as different organizations & agencies extract water
resources related data to make it useable and acceptable by all. Providing essential
data necessary to make informed and transparent decisions move towards
sustainable management of water resources.

However, variations of data due to rapid climate change, coupled with

environmental hazards & difficulties in data extraction in remote places due to
climatic conditions, have made data extraction a major complexity in proper
management.

4.6. Contamination
Climatically vulnerable countries like Bangladesh tend to have the lowest levels of
wastewater treatment. Often, the water that farmers use for irrigating crops is
contaminated with pathogens from sewage. Also, due to droughts & low fertility,
farmers tend to use excess amount of artificial fertilizers & insecticides. These
directly affect farmers health and indirectly affect consumers if they eat the
contaminated crops.

Actions that reduce or remove contamination, therefore, have the potential to save

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a large number of lives and improve livelihoods. Establishing contamination

barriers such as introducing safer irrigation practices, promoting on-farm
wastewater treatment, taking actions that cause pathogens to die off & effectively
washing crops after harvest in markets and restaurants are major challenges.

4.7. Flood Control Structures & Irrigation Projects

The construction of irrigation canals and the intensive use of water for irrigation
have led some of the rivers, canals and wetlands to dry up, thereby denying
opportunities for subsistence food production to the landless people and small and
marginal farmers.

Normal annual flooding provides numerous benefits such as common access to the
large natural floodplain fishery, deposition of fertile loam on agricultural fields,
and flushing of stagnant water in low-lying areas. However, disrupting this normal
process through heavily-engineered flood control structures has many
consequences, such as increasing flood levels in adjacent areas.

Flood control projects involve acquiring substantial land for embankment

construction. Land acquisition causes immense economic and social suffering to
the poor households who lose their land especially small agricultural landholders
who lose their land, and households who lose their homestead land.

So managing these irrigation projects & structures without disrupting livelihood is

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a major task in hand in IWRM.

Groundwater Control
Bangladesh is undergoing rapid economic development and urbanization; with the
current water development and management systems proving to be not sustainable.
Groundwater resources are being increasingly used, even to the extent of overexploitation. Groundwater constitutes over half of Bangladeshs total water use;
with 60 % irrigated areas and 70 % domestic water supply depending on
groundwater. More than 15 % of Bangladeshs food is estimated to be cultivated
using non-renewable, mined groundwater. Climate change in the form of lowering
of the GW level & salinity intrusion has made the problem even worse.

So the lack of adequate storage & groundwater control is a major challenge in

water resources development.

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Appendix

List of Abbreviation:

MSL: Mean Sea Level

GDP: Gross Domestic Product
IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IWRM: Integrated Water Resources Management

List of References:
1. Mount Everests ice is melting (2013, May 15). Retrieved from
http://greenwatchbd.com/mount-everests-ice-is-melting/

2. Average monthly Temperature and Rainfall for Bangladesh from 1900-2012.

Retrieved from
http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/index.cfm?page=country_historical_cli
mate&ThisRegion=Asia&ThisCCode=BGD

3. Bangladesh: Equity and Social Justice in Water Resource Management.

Retrieved from http://www.gwp.org/en/ToolBox/CASESTUDIES/Asia/Bangladesh-Equity-and-Social-Justice-in-Water-Resource-

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Management-413/

4. Water Resource Management. (2016, 7 August). Retrieved from:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_resource_management

5. Huq, S. and Ayers, J. (2008). Climate Change Impacts and Responses

in Bangladesh.

6. Bergkamp, G. (2003). Change: Adaption of water resources management to

climate change.

7. Hossain, S., Rahman, M. & Tamim, M. (2013). Coping with new challenges in
water resources management in Bangladesh.

8. Ahmed, E. (2008). Water Resources Management Challenges in Bangladesh.

9. Ahmed, A. (2010). Utilization and Conservation of Water Resources in

Bangladesh.