Conflict between Space and Crime:

Exploring the Relationship between

Spatial Configuration and Crime Location

Perver K. Baran
NC State University

William R. Smith
NC State University

Umut Toker
California Polytechnic SU, SLO
Paper presented at EDRA37, Atlanta, May 3-7, 2006

Overview
Theories of Crime Location
Study Objectives
Research Methodology
Data
Space Syntax Methodology
GIS Database
Analysis and Findings
Conclusions

Theories of Crime Location

Social Science Theories: focus on spatial location of crime

Social Disorganization Theory: poverty, racial and ethnic
heterogeneity, and residential mobility
Routine Activity Theory: motivated offenders, attractive
targets/opportunities, and an absence of capable guardianship against
crime

Urban Design Theories: focus on site-specific and situational features of

a place
Defensible Space Theory: Oscar Newman territoriality, natural
surveillance (Bases for CPTED and Secured by Design)
Prospect/Refuge Theory: Appleton - physical and visual access and
opportunity for escape
Space Syntax Theory: Hillier and Hanson configurational accessibility

Theories of Crime Location

Social Science Theories: focus on spatial location of crime

Social Disorganization Theory: poverty, racial and ethnic
heterogeneity, and residential mobility
Routine Activity Theory: motivated offenders, attractive
targets/opportunities, and an absence of capable guardianship against
crime

Urban Design Theories: focus on site-specific and situational features of

a place
Defensible Space Theory: Oscar Newman territoriality, natural
surveillance (Bases for CPTED and Secured by Design)
Prospect/Refuge Theory: Appleton - physical and visual access and
opportunity for escape
Space Syntax Theory: Hillier and Hanson configurational accessibility

Theories of Crime Location

Social Science Theories: focus on spatial location of crime

Social Disorganization Theory: poverty, racial and ethnic
heterogeneity, and residential mobility
Routine Activity Theory: motivated offenders, attractive
targets/opportunities, and an absence of capable guardianship against
crime

Urban Design Theories: focus on site-specific and situational features of

a place
Defensible Space Theory: Oscar Newman territoriality, natural
surveillance (Bases for CPTED and Secured by Design)
Prospect/Refuge Theory: Appleton - physical and visual access and
opportunity for escape
Space Syntax Theory: Hillier and Hanson configurational accessibility

Study Objectives
Explore the relationship of crime event locations and
spatial configuration in Cary, NC
Focus on property crimes:
Larceny
Motor Vehicle Theft
Burglary
Robbery
Compare:
1994 (1993-95)
2002 (2001-2003)

Study Area

Durham
Chapel Hill

RTP

Raleigh

Cary

Methodology
Data

Data
Crime Incidents
1993-95 and 2001-23

1993-95

2001-03

Total crime
incidents

16,165

16,827

Geocoded

13,689
(85%)

15,143
(90%)

5,879
(43%)

5,606
(37%)

Robbery
Burglary
Larceny
Auto theft

Crime Incidents
Robbery, Burglary, Larceny, Auto theft
1993-95: 5,879 incidents
2001-03: 5,606 incidents
80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

1993-95
2001-03
0

Burglary

Larceny

Auto Theft

Robbery

Data
Census Data
1990 & 2000

Population Density
Youth Concentration
Percent children under 12
Percent children 12-18

Level of Education
Percent high school graduates
Percent college graduates

Percent Owner Occupied HU

Percent Single Parents
Racial Composition
Percent African-American
Social Heterogeneity

Ethnic Composition
Percent Hispanics

Data
Census Data
Percent Hispanics
2000

Data
Census Data
Percent Children Age 12-18
2000

Data
Parcel Level Data
Land Use
Building Value
Street Hierarchy
Building Height
Floor/Area Ratio

Data
Space Syntax
Global Accessibility
Local Accessibility
Connectivity
Control
Axial Line Length

Methodology

Space Syntax Theory and Methodology

Logic of Space Syntax

Configurational Accessibility - Permeability
Non-metric and non-geometric configurational properties of space
The ease of physical movement through a district
The number of alternative routes running through a district

Logic of Space Syntax

Example 1: A BUILDING
The spatial configuration of the building in the upper figure privileges space A for
through movement

Logic of Space Syntax

Example 2: URBAN STRUCTURE

Streets are considered individual spaces, and are identified by axial lines

Space Syntax Methodology

Graph of Streets Relative Integration
Level 2

4
2

Level 0

1
INTEGRATION
Measures how a street in a city is
configurationally accessible with
respect to all other streets in the city

Level 1

3
1
4

Permeability graph

Level 2
Level 1
Level 0

29

Pathway 29
Pathway 1
Source: David Seamon

Space Syntax Methodology

Quantitative description and measurement of urban space
Variables
INTEGRATION (could be global or local)
Global Integration measures how a street in a city is configurationally
accessible with respect to all other streets in the city
High integration value for a street in a city
indicates that it is:
configurationally more accessible,
more privileged for through movement
than other streets in the city
CONNECTIVITY
The number of all lines that are directly connected to a line
CONTROL
The level of control that a space has on its neighbors for permeability to them

Cary
Configurational
Accessibility
1989

Cary
Configurational
Accessibility
1994

Cary
Configurational
Accessibility
2002

GIS Database
Data Integration: ArcGIS 9.1
Unit of Analysis: Land Parcel
Total: 34,565 parcels (2002)
Crime incident data
Census data
Space Syntax data
Parcel level data

Parcels by Global Integration

GIS Database

Parcels by Census Data

Analysis and Findings: 2001-03

Correlations among Space Syntax variables
Connectivity
Connectivity

Control

Local
Integration

Global
Integration

Axial line
length (feet)

Control

.825

Local
Integration

.915

.779

Global
Integration

.329

.155

.351

Axial line
length (feet)

.680

.487

.566

.210

N=34,565. All correlations are significant within a 99.9% confidence level

Analysis and Findings: 2001-03

Correlations of Space Syntax variables with Crime Count

Log Crime
Count
2001-2003

Connectivity

Control

Local
Integration

Global
Integration

Axial line
length (feet)

.137

.063

.123

.143

.178

All correlations are significant within a 99.9% confidence level

N=34,565

Regression on Crime Count

Space Syntax
Variables

Space Syntax and

Land Use Variables

Space Syntax, Land Use,

Socioemographic and
Distance to Magnets

St. Coefficients

St. Coefficients

St. Coefficients

Global Integration

.112***

Connectivity or
Connectivity_rate

-.008 ns

Axial Line length (feet)

.160***

R2

0.043

*** = p< 0.001

** = p< 0.010
* = p< 0.050

Regression on Crime Count

Space Syntax
Variables

Space Syntax and

Land Use Variables

Space Syntax, Land Use,

Socioemographic and
Distance to Magnets

St. Coefficients

St. Coefficients

St. Coefficients

Global Integration

.112***

.068***

Connectivity or
Connectivity_rate

-.008 ns

-.024***

Axial Line length (feet)

.160***

.075***

Single family residential

-.072***

Magnet1

.242***

Magnet2

.279***

Magnet1
Club
Theatre
Hotel/Motel
Garage
Restaurant
Magnet2
Retail

R2

0.043

.187

*** = p< 0.001

** = p< 0.010
* = p< 0.050

Regression on Crime Count

Space Syntax
Variables

Space Syntax and

Land Use Variables

Space Syntax, Land Use,

Socioemographic and
Distance to Magnets

St. Coefficients

St. Coefficients

St. Coefficients

Global Integration

.112***

.068***

.028***

Connectivity or
Connectivity_rate

-.008 ns

-.024***

-.026***

Axial Line length (feet)

.160***

.075***

.051***

Single family residential

-.072***

-.038***

Magnet1

.242***

.160***

Magnet2

.279***

.216***

Log Distance to Magnet1

-.139***

Log distance to Magnet2

-.093***

Population per acre

-.020**

Percent 12-18 years age

.047***

Percent high school gr.

.018*

Percent owner occupied

-.036***

Percent African American

.015*
.024***

Percent Hispanics

R2

0.043

.187

.219

Magnet1
Club
Theatre
Hotel/Motel
Garage
Restaurant
Magnet2
Retail

*** = p< 0.001

** = p< 0.010
* = p< 0.050

Effect of Global Integration on Crime Count (Logged)

by Magnet 1 Land Uses
Magnate Parcel
Not a Magnate
Parcel

0.150

Logged # Crimes

0.120

0.090

0.060

0.030

0.000
-1sd

Values of Global Integration

+1sd

Magnet1
Club
Theatre
Hotel/Motel
Garage
Restaurant

Connectivity Rate Effects on Crime Count (Logged)

by Retail Land Uses
Commercial Land
Parcels
Not Commercial
Land Parcels

Logged Crime Count

0.400

0.200

0.000

-0.200

-0.400
-1 sd

Connectivity Rate

+1 sd

Conclusions
Main Findings w/o Interactions
Global Integration is positively associated with crime (Contrary to Hilliers
hypothesis re: eyes on the street deterring crime)
Connectivity, however, is negatively associated with crime (yet the effect
is small)
Commercial Land Uses have strongest effect on crime counts: predict
crime about as well as the full model
Frequency of Crime decays with distance to commercial land uses

Conclusions
Main Findings of Models with Interactions
Global Integration (+) interacts with Magnet 1 Land uses (+)
synergistically to produce even higher levels of crime (+)
Magnet1: Club, Theatre, Hotel/Motel, Garage, Restaurant

Connectivity (-) interacts with Retail Land uses (+) to buffer the latters
effect and further reduce crime (-)