Scope of Research

Statewide survey conducted August 4-8, 2016

Voters reached on land lines and cell phones
No interviews conducted on Shabbat

500 Jewish likely voters

Random selection of people from the Florida voter file who have
distinctive Jewish names, and self-identify as Jewish
Margin of error: 4.4 percentage points at the 95 percent
confidence interval

Figure 1

Key Findings Demographics and Issues Environment

Figure 2

Florida Jewish voters are a very Democratic base group. Party identification and voting
patterns reflect the Democratic support among the national Jewish population.
The primary difference between Florida Jewish voters and the national Jewish population is
age: Jews in Florida are significantly older. They are also more affiliated with a particular
Jewish denomination, and identify more as Reform or Conservative and slightly less as
Orthodox than the national population.
The top issues determining voters decisions are the economy, ISIS and terrorism, and the
Supreme Court. Israel and Iran are very low voting priorities.
A majority of Florida Jewish voters support the Iran agreement, and there is overwhelming
opposition to a temporary ban on Muslims entering the United States. On both issues,
Florida Jews are more supportive of Clintons position than the U.S. population.

Key Findings 2016 Political Landscape

Figure 3

Clinton, Obama, and the Democratic Party receive very strong marks, while attitudes toward
Trump and the Republican Party are very negative.
Clinton holds a 43-point lead over Trump (41 points in the 2-way vote), highly consistent with
the historical margin that Democratic presidential candidates have maintained since exit
polling began in 1972.
Voters are very locked in along partisan lines. Reactions to messages for and against both
presidential candidates break down largely according to party identification, and Clintons
messages are much stronger than Trumps.
Clintons strongest positive messages center on equal opportunity, women, and the high
stakes in the election. All the messages against Trump receive comparable (and very strong)
reactions. None of Trumps messaging resonates.
After hearing messages from both candidates, there is no movement from voters initial vote
preference, reflecting how locked in voters currently are. Even after receiving no messages
for Johnson or Stein, the vote share for these small parties in unchanged.

The Florida Jewish Electorate

Figure 4

Florida Jewish Voters are Older, Well-Educated, Female

Figure 5

60
50
40

53

53
47
35

30

31

20

21

21

15

10

11

9
0

Men

Women

High
school

Some
college

College
grad

Post-grad
school

Under 30

30 to 49

50 to 64

65+

Florida Jewish Voters Constitute a Base Democratic Constituency

Figure 6

70
60

63

50
40

40

30

33
25

20

19
10

0
Democrat

Independent

Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Reform and Conservative Denominations Exceed Natl Average

50

40

National Figures (Pew 2013)

Reform: 35%
Conservative: 18%
Orthodox: 10%
Unaffiliated: 30%

42

30

24

20

19
10

6
0
Reform

Conservative

Orthodox

Unaffiliated

Figure 7

Most Florida Jewish Voters are Concentrated in South FL

Figure 8

40

South FL: 60%

35
30

31

25

26

20
15

17

10

12

13

5
0
Palm Beach County

Broward County

Miami-Dade County

West Coast
(Hillsborough, Pinellas,
Pesco, Sarasota)

Other

Mood/ Partisan Environment

Figure 9

Not a Change Environment; Much Different than U.S. Population

Figure 10

Generally speaking, do you think that things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things
have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?

60

US National Population: 32% Right Direction / 62% Wrong Track

NBC News/WSJ, August 3, 2016

50
40

45

46

Right Direction

Wrong Track

30
20
10
0

Democrats are Popular; Strong Personal Opposition to Republicans

80
60

Now, Id like to rate your feelings toward some people or organizations with one hundred meaning a very warm, favorable feeling;
zero meaning a very cold, unfavorable feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero
to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no
opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so: Barack Obama, Democratic Party, Republican Party,
George W. Bush

64

40

57

57

20

23

0
-20

Figure 11

30

31

19

21

67

71

Rep Party

Donald Trump

33

-40

56

-60
-80

Barack Obama

Dem Party

Hillary Clinton
Favorable

George Bush
Unfavorable

Bloomberg, Chelsea Clinton are Strong Surrogates

80
60
40

Now, Id like to rate your feelings toward some people or organizations with one hundred meaning a very warm, favorable feeling;
zero meaning a very cold, unfavorable feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero
to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no
opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so: Chelsea Clinton, Michael Bloomberg, Ivanka Trump,
Natalie Portman

85 ID

50

90 ID

85 ID

29

24

49 ID

43

20

-20

Figure 12

21
38

18
10

-40
-60
-80

Michael Bloomberg

Chelsea Clinton
Favorable

Ivanka Trump
Unfavorable

Natalie Portman

Issue Environment

Figure 13

Economy, ISIS/Terrorism, and Supreme Court are Top Voting Issues

Figure 14

Now, I am going to read you a list of issues facing our country today. Please tell me, which TWO of these issues are the
most important for you in deciding your vote in the Presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.
Top 2 Most Important Issues

35

The Economy

29

ISIS and terrorism

28

The Supreme Court

17

Social Secuirty and Medicare

16

Health care

15

Education

10

20

30

40

Israel and Iran are Lower Tier Issues

Figure 15

Now, I am going to read you a list of issues facing our country today. Please tell me, which TWO of these issues are the
most important for you in deciding your vote in the Presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.
Top 2 Most Important Issues

11

The Environment

10

Immigration
Guns

Israel

8
6

The Deficit and Government Spending

Taxes

Iran

10

15

Only Orthodox Voters Prioritize Israel

Figure 16

Reform
(42% of pop)

Conservative
(24% of pop)

Orthodox
(6% of pop)

Unaffiliated
(19% of pop)

Non-Orthodox
Combined
(88% of pop)

Economy

31

37

35

42

35

ISIS/Terrorism

31

28

38

29

29

Supreme Court

29

28

25

28

29

Israel

46

Orthodox Voters are Solidly Republican and Oppose Democrats

Figure 17

80
60

Orthodox Party ID:

Orthodox Vote:

67% Republican / 24% Democrat

66% Trump / 22% Clinton

54

40

80

20
0

18

15
11

-20

32

-40
-60

67

73

-80
Barack Obama

Hillary Clinton
Favorable

Unfavorable

Donald Trump

George W. Bush

Economy is Top Issue for Republicans and Independents

Figure 18

Most Important Issues

Economy

Democrats

28

Supreme Court

33

Israel

Economy

Independents

51

ISIS/terrorism

38

Israel

11

Economy

Republicans

48

ISIS/terrorism

45

Israel

14
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Strong Opposition to Muslim Ban; Exceeds U.S. Population

Figure 19

Do you think the U.S. should temporarily ban Muslims from other countries from entering the United States or not?

80
70
60
50

75

National US Population
59% Should not ban
35% Should ban
CBS News/NYT, July 12, 2016

40
30
20
10

19

0
Yes, should ban

No, should not ban

Majority Support for Iran Agreement; Exceeds U.S. Population

Figure 20

Do you support or oppose the agreement that the United States and other countries made one year ago to lift
economic sanctions against Iran in exchange for Iran dismantling its nuclear weapons program and allowing
international inspectors to monitor Irans facilities?

60
50

National US Population
45% Support
44% Oppose

51

ABC News/Wash Post, Oct. 10, 2015

40

39
30
20
10
0

Support

Oppose

2016 Vote

Figure 21

Clinton Holds Massive Lead over Trump

Figure 22

Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today and the candidates were
Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein for
whom would you vote?

70
60

67

66

50
40
30
20

26

23

10
6

0
Clinton

Trump

Johnson

2
Stein

Clinton

Trump

Clinton Outperforms Party ID and 2012 Vote

Figure 23

80
70

Clinton Performance Compared to

Party ID and 2012 Florida Jewish Vote

60
50
40

+43

30

+38

+37

Party ID: Dem-Rep

2012 Obama-Romney
Florida Jewish Result

20
10
0

Clinton-Trump

Presidential Vote by Denomination

Figure 24

And if the candidates were just Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump, for whom would you vote?

80
70

78
72

67

60

66

63

50
40
30

10
0

28

25

20

22

18

22

17
Reform

Unaffiliated

Conservative

Clinton

Orthodox

Trump

Non- Orthodox

Clinton Very Strong with All Age Groups; Potential to Grow w/Younger Voters

Figure 25

And if the candidates were just Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump, for whom would you vote?

80
70
60

Under 30
14% Johnson/Stein/Other

72

69
62

72
59

58

50
40

35

30
20

31
24

22

23

23

10
0
Under 30

30 to 49

50 to 64

Clinton

Over 64

Trump

Under 50

50+

Messages

Figure 26

Clinton Messages Top Tier

Figure 27

Equality

Clinton believes all Americans should be treated equally regardless of where they come
from, what they look like, how they worship, or who they love. But some people still face
obstacles others do not, from discrimination in the workplace to lack of educational
opportunities that make it harder to succeed. Clinton says it is time to make sure all
Americans are treated with respect and have the opportunity to get ahead.

Women

Clinton has been on the front lines working for women's rights for decades, and she can now
make history as America's first woman President. But electing Clinton is more than just a
symbol - she is fighting in this campaign to guarantee equal pay for equal work, allow
working women to care for a newborn child or a sick family member without losing a
paycheck or risking their job, and make quality affordable childcare a reality.

High Stakes

The stakes in this election are very high, and the next President will determine the balance
on the Supreme Court, the future of Obamacare, and whether we provide equal protections
to all Americans regardless of their religion, race, or sexual orientation. Clinton will make
sure that America builds on the progress our country has made in protecting our rights, and
she will prevent extremists from taking us backward.

Track Record

Clinton has a proven track record of fighting for middle class families, standing up for kids,
strengthening public schools, promoting women's rights, and improving America's standing
around the world. She will be ready on day one to fight for an economy that serves all

Clinton Messages 2nd Tier

Figure 28

Equality with
Jewish Values

Jewish values teach us that we are all made in the image of the divine, and Clinton believes
all Americans should be treated equally regardless of where they come from, what they look
like, how they worship, or who they love. Clinton says it is time to make sure all Americans
are treated with respect and have the opportunity to get ahead.

Economy

While the incomes of ordinary people have flat-lined and the incomes of the richest one
percent continue to rise, it is time for the wealthy to pay their fair share. Clinton believes a
strong middle class is the way to build a strong economy, and her economic plan makes
improving the incomes of ordinary Americans our top priority, so everyone can benefit from
the promise of America.

Israel

Clinton has been a steadfast supporter of Israel throughout her entire adult life. From the
time she brought an Israeli literacy program to Arkansas to supporting aid to Israel as
Senator from New York to negotiating a life-saving cease fire between Israelis and
Palestinians as Secretary of State, Clinton has been an important link between Israel and
the United States, and she has worked tirelessly to defend the Jewish State.

Economy with
Tikkun Olam

Clinton is the candidate of Tikkun Olam, the Jewish value that teaches us to repair the
world. While the incomes of ordinary people have flat-lined and the incomes of the richest
one percent continue to rise, Clinton's economic plan makes improving the incomes of
ordinary Americans our top priority, so everyone can benefit from the promise of America.

Equality, Womens Rights, High Stakes are Strongest Messages

Figure 29

Now let me read you a series of statements that could be used to describe Hillary Clinton. For each statement, please tell me whether this a
very convincing, somewhat convincing, a little convincing, or not at all convincing reason to support Hillary Clinton for President.

Very convincing
Equality

52

Women

52

High Stakes

52

Total convincing

75
69
67

48

Track Record

67

47

Jewish Values/Equality

69

42

Economy

62

38

Israel

67

34

Economy/Tikkun
Olam
0

10

20

30

59
40

50

60

70

80

Trump Messages

Figure 30

Outsider

Trump is an outsider who is not afraid to say what needs to be said. Unlike typical politicians who are in
the hands of special interests, Trump does not owe political favors to anybody. He says that we have too
much political correctness in this country, and he will do what it takes to defeat ISIS, end illegal
immigration, and make America respected again by our enemies who feel they can walk all over us.

Israel

Trump is a true friend of Israel and served as the Grand Marshal of the 40th Salute to Israel Parade in
New York. Trump says that his number one priority will be to dismantle the disastrous Iran nuclear deal,
and he will end the days of Israel being a second class citizen. He will show that the United States stands
with Israel, and finally move the American embassy to the eternal capital of the Jewish people, Jerusalem.

Businessman

Trump will bring his incredible success in the business world to fix a broken government and make
America great again. For too long, Washington has made terrible decisions that serve campaign donors
instead of the American people, wrecking our economy, losing trade wars to China, and allowing illegal
immigration to flow into our country. We need someone who will take the tough decisions to make real
change.

Fear

With ISIS striking around the world, militant movements like Black Lives Matter instigating violence against
police, and illegal immigrants sneaking into the country and killing Americans, we need to instill law and
order. Trump is the only candidate who is willing to provide the strong leadership required, and break the
rules if need be, to restore order and make America great again.

Immigration

Trump says that a nation without borders is not a nation, and we must build a wall to stop Mexico from
exporting crime and poverty across our borders. And we will make Mexico pay for the wall because they
are responsible for illegal immigration and have been taking advantage of us for years. We will use our
economic leverage and power to hold Mexico accountable, and finally make them pay to end the flow of

Trump Messages are Weak; Lag far Behind Clinton Messages

Figure 31

Now let me read you a series of statements that could be used to describe Donald Trump. For each statement, please tell me whether this a
very convincing, somewhat convincing, a little convincing, or not at all convincing reason to support Donald Trump for President.

Total convincing

Very convincing

Outsider

21

Israel

32

19

Businessman

36

18

31

16

Fear

27

12

Immigration
0

10

25
15

20

25

30

35

40

Anti-Clinton Messages

Figure 32

Liar

Crooked Hillary has been lying to us for decades, whether it is covering up her husband's
affairs, falsifying what happened in Benghazi, or hiding documents from investigators in
her illegal private email account that she created as Secretary of State. She lied to the FBI,
and we simply cannot trust the presidency with someone who thinks laws don't apply to
her.

Israel

The Obama administration repeatedly disrespected Israel and Prime Minister Netanyahu,
and Clinton did nothing to defend Israel against Obama's misguided policies. Instead of
standing up to Obama, Clinton was behind the disastrous Iran deal, she publicly criticized
Netanyahu, and she made moral equivalences between Israel and the Palestinians.

Change

America needs to change direction, but Clinton thinks everything is great and she wants to
continue Obama's failed path. With ISIS threatening our way of life, a failing economy, and
an America that does not stand up for its allies like Israel, we cannot afford a third Obama
term.

Career Politician

Clinton is a career politician who has spent decades serving campaign donors and special
interests. She and her husband have taken millions of dollars from Wall Street banks,
foreign governments, and criminals in exchange for access and favors that put big money
ahead of the American people.

Anti-Clinton Messages Do Not Resonate

Figure 33

Now let me read you a few more statements about Hillary Clinton. This time, please tell me whether this description raises very serious
doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about Hillary Clinton.

Total serious doubts

Very serious doubts

Liar

23

37

20

Israel

Change

39

18

35

16

Career Politician
0

10

15

40

20

25

30

35

40

45

Anti-Trump Messages

Figure 34

Women

Trump denigrates women, calling them fat pigs and bimbos, and he said that women who are
harassed at work should find another career instead of reporting the abuse. He sends a
terrible message to our daughters and sons, undermining the basic values we teach at home.

Temperament

Trump lacks the temperament to be President of the United States. His public swearing,
mocking of disabled people, and bullying set the wrong example for our children and his
erratic behavior disqualifies him from the Oval Office where America must have a responsible
and steady hand during moments of crisis.

Anti-Semitism

Trump's attacks on Hispanics and Muslims have drawn the support of White Supremacist
groups that target Jews. Instead of pushing these hate groups away from his campaign, the
Trump campaign has accepted their support and even used an anti-Semitic image from a
White Supremacist website.

Commander-inChief

Trump insults military families and is not fit to be our Commander-in-Chief. He publicly
demeaned the mother of a U.S. soldier killed in action because she is Muslim and he attacked
John McCain for becoming a prisoner of war. Trump got a phony exemption from serving in
Vietnam and when asked to name sacrifices that he made for the country, Trump said that he
built great buildings.

Anti-Trump Messages (continued)

*more Trump messages due to split samples

Figure 35

Threat to Jews

Trump's mocking of disabled people, calling Mexican immigrants rapists and criminals, and
seeking a ban on Muslims from entering the U.S. is an assault on all minorities in America.
Trump's attacks on minorities have brought White Supremacist groups out on social media
and public venues, where they target Jews with anti-Semitic vitriol.

Racist

Trump talks about Muslims, immigrants, and women the way anti-Semites in Europe used
to talk about Jews. Trump threatens and insults minorities, he says they don't belong here,
and he wants the U.S. government to sign them up on a list so they can be tracked.

Policy

Trump's policies put the rich ahead of middle class families, drastically cut spending on
education, and will take health care away from millions of Americans. He wants to reverse
the course set forward by Obama, and return to the Republican policies that gave millions
in tax cuts to the top one percent and drove us into recession.

Women (with
abortion language)

Trump denigrates women, calling them fat pigs and bimbos. He said that women should be
punished for having an illegal abortion, and that women who are harassed at work should
find another career instead of reporting the abuse. Trump sends a terrible message to our
daughters and sons, undermining the basic values we teach at home.

Critiques of Trump Receive Comparable Results

Figure 36

Now let me read you a few more statements about Donald Trump. This time, please tell me whether this description raises very serious
doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about Donald Trump.

Total serious doubts

Very serious doubts

Women

50

Temperament

49

Anti-Semitism

49

Commander-in-Chief

76
73
72

48

71

47

Threat to Jews

72

47

Racist
Policy
Women with Abortion Language
0

10

20

30

40

70

46

71

46

71
50

60

70

80

Voters Locked In: Messaging Does Not Move Votes

70
60

Figure 37

Thinking again about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today and the
candidates were Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson, and Green Party
candidate Jill Stein for whom would you vote?

66

65

50
40
30
20

23
24

10
6

0
Clinton

Trump

Johnson

INITIAL VOTE

2
Stein

6
Clinton

Trump

Johnson

POST-MESSAGE VOTE

1
1

Stein

No Movement in 2-Way Vote

70
60

Figure 38

Thinking again about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today and the
candidates were Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson, and Green Party
candidate Jill Stein for whom would you vote?

67

67

50
40
30
26

20

25

10
0
Clinton

INITIAL VOTE

Trump

Clinton

Trump

POST-MESSAGE VOTE

Strategic Considerations

Figure 39

1)

Clinton has an overwhelming advantage among Jewish voters in Florida, and the primary focus of Clinton
supporters should be maximizing turnout. Any Reform, Conservative, or unaffiliated voter who turns out to
vote is highly likely to vote for Clinton, making targeting clear and uncomplicated.

2)

Orthodox voters in Florida have vastly different political beliefs and issue priorities than non-Orthodox
voters. Orthodox Jews are solidly Republican and show little chance of changing in this election. Among
Florida Jews, the strategic priority for Clinton supporters (in addition to turnout) is holding onto her current
vote share and not alienating supporters.

3)

The issue environment and message framework is very clear. Jewish voters in Florida are focused on the
economy, ISIS and terrorism, and the Supreme Court. They respond very well to messages that
demonstrate the candidates contrast on their attitudes toward women, their differences on tolerance and
promoting equal opportunity for all Americans, and the high stakes of this election that will determine the
balance on the Supreme Court and whether we provide equal protections to all Americans regardless of
religion, race, or sexual orientation.

4)

With Florida Jewish voters rejecting Trumps proposed ban on Muslims and supporting the Iran
agreement, Clinton supporters should have confidence in her positions on these issues. Punditry about
Jews holding hawkish positions on the Middle East has consistently been proven wrong in each election
and ongoing polling, and the data in this survey show that Florida Jewish voters share the progressive
views of Jews across the country.