You are on page 1of 95

CIP

173 100036

7201000 1/16

20

.00

01088254888
zlts@phei.com.cn
dbqq@phei.com.cn
01088258888

20

10

IV

Raymond Raymond

2013

ifeng.com

Raymond 20
Raymond

CEO

2006
2006 19

18
19
0 1

19 CEO

VI

2040

3.15

Raymond

IT

Raymond
Raymond 24

VII

VIII

Raymond


Raymond

Raymond


Raymond

Raymond

Raymond

Raymond
ITIL ITpreneurs

New Internet

IX

Raymond

Raymond

Raymond
!

Raymond

UTC

Raymond

Raymond

XI

XII

1998 DELL

DELL DELL
Internet Bubble

know-how

Jeff Bezos
300
300

XIII

UTC MyGift.com
Stephen Lai

Raymond
@CarelessWhisper

XIV

1 ................................. 1
1.1 2012 ............................................................ 2
1.2 300 300 ............................................. 6
1.2.1 RUPI..................................................... 7
1.2.2 .............................................................. 8
1.2.3 ............................................ 10
1.2.4 ................................................ 13

1.3

............................................... 16
1.3.1 .................................................... 17
1.3.2 ................................................ 17
1.3.3 ......................... 19
1.3.4 .................................................... 23
1.3.5 .................................... 27

1.4

....................................... 30
1.4.1 ............................................................ 32
1.4.2 .................................... 33
1.4.3 ............................................................ 35
1.4.4 ................................................ 36
1.4.5 ................................ 36

WH .................... 37
....................................................................... 39
................................................................... 42
2 ................................... 43
2.1 ............................................... 44
2.2 ........................................................... 45
1.5
1.6
1.7

2.2.1 ........................................ 46
2.2.2 .................................................... 47
2.2.3 ................................................................ 50

2.3

....................................................... 52
2.3.1 ............................. 52
2.3.2 ............................. 54
2.3.3 ............................. 59
2.3.4 ............................. 62

2.4
2.5

............................................................... 63
................................................... 66
2.5.1 ........................................................ 66
2.5.2 ................................................................ 70
2.5.3 ............................................................ 76

2.6

....................................... 82
2.6.1 ........................................................ 83
2.6.2 ........................................................ 83
2.6.3 ........................................ 83
2.6.4 .................................................... 85
2.6.5 .................................... 86

................................................................... 89
3 ................................... 90
3.1 ............................................................... 90
2.7

3.1.1 ................................................................ 92
3.1.2 Target.................................................. 94
3.1.3 ................................................ 95
3.1.4 .................................................... 97

3.2
3.3

..................................................... 100
............................. 101
3.3.1 ...................................................... 101
3.3.2 ...................................................... 108
3.3.3 ................ 111
3.3.4 ........................119

3.4

Web ..................................................... 121


3.4.1 Web................................................... 122
3.4.2 ........................... 124
3.4.3 ........... 126

XV

XVI

................................................................. 130
4 ...................... 132
4.1 ................................................................. 132
3.5

4.1.1 Excel..................................................... 132


4.1.2 MATLAB ..................................................................... 136

4.2

................................................................. 139
4.2.1 GA ................................................................ 139
4.2.2 GA.................................................................... 142
4.2.3 .............................................................. 143

4.3

R ...................................................... 144
4.3.1 R ............................................... 145
4.3.2 R ........................................................... 148
4.3.3 Rattle ........................................ 150

4.4

............................................. 154
4.4.1 Weka..................................................... 154
4.4.2 Google ...................................... 158

4.5

................................................. 159
4.5.1 .......................................... 159
4.5.2 ...................................................... 161
4.5.3 ...................................................... 165

4.6
4.7

................................................................. 165
................................................................. 168

5 .................................... 170
5.1 ..................................................... 170
5.1.1 .................................................. 170
5.1.2 .......................................................... 171

5.2

..................................... 173
5.2.1 .......................................................................... 175
5.2.2 .......................................................................... 176
5.2.3 .......................................................................... 180

5.3

............................................................. 181
5.3.1 .......................................................... 182
5.3.2 .......................................... 184

XVII
5.3.3 ROI........................................................... 187

5.4

................................................. 189
5.4.1 .............................................................. 189
5.4.2 .............................................................. 193
5.4.3 .............................................................. 194
5.4.4 ...................................................................... 195

5.5

......................................... 195
Bootstrapping ....................................... 195
5.5.2 ...................................................................... 196
5.5.3 ...................................................................... 198
5.5.1

5.5.4 .............................................. 199


5.5.5 ...................................................................... 200
5.5.6 .......................................................................... 201

................................................................. 202
6 ................................. 203
6.1 ............................................. 203
5.6

6.1.1 ...................................................................... 204


6.1.2 ...................................................................... 207
6.1.3 ...................................................................... 213
6.1.4 ...................................................................... 214
6.1.5 ...................................................................... 215

6.2

......................................................... 219
6.2.1 .............................................. 220
6.2.2 ...................................................... 222
6.2.3 RFM ..................................................... 223
6.2.4 .................................. 226
6.2.5 .................................. 228

6.3 WAMM ................................................................... 229


6.4 B2C ..................................... 231
6.5 KPI............................................... 233
KPISMART...................................................... 235
6.5.2 KPI ........................................... 237
6.5.1

6.6

................................................................. 241

XVIII

7 ................................. 242
7.1 SEO.............................................. 242
7.1.1 SEO ...................................................... 242
7.1.2 SEO .............................................................. 246
7.1.3
7.1.4

SEO .............................................................. 247


SEO .................................................................. 248

7.2 SEO ......................................................................... 252


7.3 ............................................................. 256
7.4 ............................................................. 258
7.5 ................................................................. 262
8 ................ 263
8.1

................................................................. 263
8.1.1 ...................................................... 264
8.1.2 .............................................................. 267
8.1.3 .......................................................... 271
8.1.4 .................................................. 272

8.2

................................................................. 278
8.2.1 .................................................................. 279
8.2.2 ...................................................................... 281

8.3

SEM ............................................ 282


8.3.1 .......................................................... 283
8.3.2 .......................................................... 284
8.3.3 SEM.................................................. 287

8.4

EDM................................................................................ 294
8.4.1
8.4.2
8.4.4

EDM ................................................. 303


EDM ..................................................... 304

8.4.5

EDMRFM ............................................ 308

8.4.3

8.5

EDM ................................................. 299


EDMKPI .................................................................. 302

......................................................................... 311
8.5.1 .......................................................................311
8.5.2 .................................................................. 314

8.6

................................................................. 316

XIX

9 ........................................ 317
9.1 ......................................................................... 317
9.1.1 .............................................................. 318
9.1.2 ...................................................... 320
9.1.3 ...................................................... 322
9.1.4 .................................................. 324
9.1.5 ...................................................... 326

9.2

......................................................................... 327
9.2.1 .............................................................. 327
9.2.2 .................................................. 329
9.2.3 .............................................................. 329

9.3

......................................................................... 331
9.3.1 .............................................................. 332
9.3.2 .............................................................. 335

9.4

............................................................. 336
9.4.1 .............................................. 337
9.4.2 .................................................. 338
9.4.3 .................................................. 340
9.4.4 ...................................................... 342

................................................................. 344
10 ......................................... 345
9.5

10.1

................................................... 345
10.1.1 CRM ................................... 346
10.1.2 ............................................ 349
10.1.3 ................................ 352
10.1.4 RFMMVC .............................................. 353

10.2

....................................... 354
10.2.1 ............................................ 355
10.2.2 ........................................................ 356
10.2.3 ........................................................ 357

10.3

....................................................... 358
10.3.1 ............................................................ 359
10.3.2 ............................................ 360

XX

10.4

................................................... 364
10.4.1 .................................................... 365
10.4.2 ............................................ 366
10.4.3 ............................................ 368
10.4.4 ............................ 372

....................................................................... 374
11 ............................ 377
11.1 ............................................................... 377
11.2 ........................................................... 381
10.5

11.2.1
11.2.2
11.2.3
11.2.4

11.3

.................................................... 381
LBS ........................................................ 388
.................................................................... 391
.................................... 391

Big Data ............................................................ 393


11.3.1
11.3.2
11.3.3
11.3.4

Big Data ......................................................... 393


................................ 396
Big Data...................................................... 397
OLAP.......................................... 408

11.4 ....................................................... 409


11.5 ....................................................... 411
11.6 ............................................................... 412
12 ............................... 414

A ........................................................... 419
B .................................. 431
C ........................................................... 437
D ................................................ 442
E

.................................................... 443



1% 5%

100
150

KPI

1.1
2012
2012

2022 50%

10
4%
15%10 50%

2011

1-1
2012 Q3
2 842

1-1

2008 2/3
2012 191
B2C

2012

15 38

1-2

1-2

1-2

1-3

1-3

1-3 E-commerce
SearchSocial Mobile

Analytics & Measurement 2


6
KPI
Conversion Analysis

Social Media Search Engine Optimization


7
Pay Per ClickE-mail
Online
Media Buying Retargeting
8
Shopping Cart Analysis 10

1-3

1.2
300 300
Amazon
2011 481
2012 573

Jeff Bezos 300


300

3.4
10

2006
S3 EC2

Jeff Bezos
2003 Money

The three most important things for us are technology,


technology, technology.

1.2.1

RUPI

RUPI Richness
UbiquityPersonalization Interactivity 1-4
Richness

Ubiquity

Personalization

Interactivity

1-4

RUPI

RUPI

1.2.2

16

30

10

1.2.3

1.2.4

=
1-5

1-5

UV 1%5%
UVUnique Visitor

3%15%
5%20%
2%20%

UV 10 000
20 000 200

UV 1%5%
100500
3%15%
6003 000
5%20%
6003 000 5%20% 30
600
2%20% 6003 000
2%20% 600 2%
12 3 000 20% 600
200
2 400 12
2 400 12

2 400 100 12
3 000

11

12

1-6

1-6

1-7

=
=
=

1-7

1.2.4

90

30

KPI

13

14

1-8

1-8

2 UV
UV Unique Visitor
UV PV
PVPage ViewUV PV
A 10 PV 10
UV 1
1-9 PV
UV

1-9

1-9 18 031
14 460

UV

3
Conversion Rate

1-10

1-10

1-10 1.81%
2.47%

=/

15

16

=/
AverageMean
10
20 120 50
20

10 000 UV 100
250
25% 25 000 31 000

1-11 2013 1
172.53

1-11

1.3

1.3.1

2012

1.3.2

17

18

50%
1.3.3

33

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

28

20
1119
10

1.3.3

19

20

ROI

1-12 1 9
1 10

1-12

1-1 3 15

3 22

1-1

3 1

103 768

1 911

1.84%

3 8

121 408

2 296

1.89%

3 15

110 481

3 199

2.90%

3 22

124 843

1 526

1.22%

3 29

164 792

3 094

1.88%

1-13

1-13

1-14

1-14

21

22

1-14 1-14

1-2

1-2

3 500

UV

12 050

0.33%

87

1 12 050
3 500
0.33%

1-2 1-3
UV
UV

UV
1-3

6 808

UV

179

2.23%

1 702

1.3.4

Northwestern Mark Jeffery 2011


The 15 Metrics Everyone in Marketing Should Know
80%
20%

1-15
1-15

Customer ResearchProduct Deisign


MarketBuyer
1-15

23

24

1-15

1-15
Put In Basket

Payment ZonePurchase

VANCL CEO

25

26

B2C

1-16

1-16

1.3.5

2012

GPS

1-17

1-17

Business
Intelligence BI Gartner 1996

Gartner Howard
Dressner
Iterative Discoveries

27

28

1-18
BI

1-18

Data
Rich, Information Poor

Erik
Brynjolfsson

1-19

1-19

1-15

KPI
KPI
KPI
6.5 KPI

KPI

29

30

1.4

EstimationPrediction

Predictive Analysis

Regression
Analysis

EDM

31

32

1.4.1

Web
Web

Web Web

1-4
1-4

Austin

ABCZ

Benny

AGZ

Cody

CZ

Donya

MZ

Eason

CD

1-4 Z 80%
Z
100% 100% Z
Z
Z

Z Z

7 8

1.4.2

33

34

SEO

1-5

1-5

Google

10 374

218

2.10%

30.1%

$1 199.72

Facebook

2 085

37

1.77%

29.4%

$1 211.24

13 082

386

2.95%

44.9%

$1 488.42

Google AdWords

5 862

155

2.64%

26.2%

$495.20

Google AdSense

4 706

91

1.93%

31.8%

$433.93

42 118

912

2.17%

28.1%

$845.76

1-5

Google AdWords
Google AdSense

Google
Facebook Google
9

1.4.3

80% 20%

Web

1-6

Alan
Celine
Bill
1-6

Alan

25

119.62

2 990.50

Bill

11

197.71

2 174.81

Celine

297.37

2 378.96

Diana

12

168.19

2 018.28

Eva

113.24

1 019.16

1.9

97.38

185.02

35

36

10

1.4.4

Cross-Selling
Up-Selling

3.4
10

1.4.5

BrainSins 77%

1.5
WH
WH

Why
What
When
Where
Which
Who
How
Why

Business Intelligence

37

38

Intelligence

What

When

Always

Where

WWhichWho
WhichWho

WhichWho

KPI
6 WHHow

How

1.6

Educated Guess

2 3

39

40

1 2012

RUPI

2 3
CEO

5.5

RFM 6.5 KPI

7 8
7 8

10

11

12

A
B

41

42

@CarelessWhisper

Careless
Whisper
E

1.7

Mark Jeffery. Data-Driven Marketing: The 15 Metrics Everyone


in Marketing Should Know. Wiley, 2010

170

5.1

5.1.1

5 171

CEO

Comfort Zone

5.1.2

2012

172

Excel

5 173

15
8
A B 8
A C 4
A B A C

5.2

174

5-1

5-1

UV

5-1
5-1

5-1

10
40%

10

70%

5 175

100%

5-1
Engagement Index

=/
Cookie IP
30
15 000 10 000
=15 000/10 000=1.5
1
1

1.2.4

5.2.1

Active Visitor
Share

= X /

= Y /

176

X Y
10

120
5-2 3 1 4 26
10 283 12 374
26.10% 37.62%

5-2

PV

UV

31

14 824

10 283

27.8

1.442

26.10%

3 15

17 344

10 899

32.0

1.591

29.63%

3 29

18 558

11 334

36.1

1.637

32.59%

4 12

20 970

12 014

36.5

1.745

31.62%

4 26

25 164

12 374

43.8

2.034

37.62%

5.2.2

50 000
1%
1.5% 75 000
2%
100 000

5 177

5 000

1%3%
1%
3%
Amazon 4.5%

Aliexpress
5-1

178

5-1

5-2 Sears

5-2

Sears

5 179

5-2

Hondas lightest and quietest lawnmower engine delivers 160cc


of power.
166cc

5-3





5-3

180

5.2.3

A 100 B
10 B A
A 40 000
B 60 A 100

B A 0.25% B 16.67%
A 66.7 B

B B

5 181

10

15%

2%5%
10
Amazon.com 70%

5.3

182

5.3.1

5 183

DashboardDashboard

KPI
BI Dashboard
5-4

5-4

KPI

5-4

Dashboard
Dashboard

184

5-5

5-5

5-5

5.3.2

5 185

CSAT
Churn Rate

SEO

IP

186

5-6

5-6

5-6 5-6

5 187

5-7

5-7

5-7
15%
50%

5.3.3

ROI

ROI
ROI
ROI

188

ROI Return On Investment


RoRRate of ReturnROI

ROI = /100%

Marketing
ROMIReturn On Market
Investment

ROI
ROI ROI

ROI ROI
ROI
ROI

5-3

5-3

ROI

ROI

14 814

24 691.50

42 797.65

73.33%

17 129

5 525.75

6 395.63

15.74%

1 231

9 970.53

12 314.92

23.51%

3 665

4 000.00

10 023.04

150.58%

36 839

44 187.78

71 531.24

61.88%

21 837

0.00

210 945.42

N/A

5-3 44 187.78
71 531.24 ROI 61.88% ROI
4 000
10 023.04ROI 150.58%

5 189

5.4

5.4.1

Traffic

Unique VisitorsPage Views


Page Views Per User

190

Google Google
AnalysisCNZZ

Web Web
Web


Web

Google Google
Analytics 4
Google

5 191

5-8 5-9

5-8

5-8 7

36.67%
20%
22.41%

192

5-9

5-9 7
5-9
19% 11.25% 8.85%

3.66%

5 193

5.4.2

5-4
5-4

2 497

9.99

18.41

1 746

39.99

97.42

953

19.99

35.75

438

69.99

186.62

376

29.99

47.64

20 728

27.63

49.48

5-4
27.63
49.48

194

5-4 5-4
B D
B D
B
D

5.4.3

CEO

5 195

5.4.4

5.5

5.5.1

Bootstrapping

Bootstapping
Boostrapping Booting

196

Bootstrapping Any Time,


Always, Cashflow Positive

KISSKeep It Simple, Stupid

5.5.2

Niche Market

2012

5 197

one-stop-shop

BlackSocks

10

5-10 BlackSocks

5-10

BlackSocks

De Beers
70%

198

De Beers

5.5.3

B2C

+
B2C

B2C B2C
B2C
B2C

5 199

B2C


1545

5.5.4

Cost

Differentiation

200

Selection

Service

Amazon.com
buy.com Godiva.com

100

B2C
+++

5.5.5

7 8

5 201

CPSCost Per Sale

5.5.6



B2C

202

5.6

Mark Jeffery. Data-Driven Marketing: The 15 Metrics Everyone


in Marketing Should Know. Wiley, 2010