Environmental Risk Assessment

Case: Cage Aquaculture at Lake Toba, North Sumatera, Indonesia

by Lucky Debora R. Sitorus

Introduction
Lake Toba, Sumatra, is the largest volcanic lake in the world, with an average surface area of 1 100
km and an average volume of 1 258 km (FAO AQUaSTAT 2003). Lake toba is surrounded by
seven districts in North Sumatera Province. This habitation is very important for the population
around it, not only for the municipal and industries activities, but also for tourism, transportation,
farms, agriculture, aquaculture, and any other uses. Lake Toba is one of the main tourism place in
Sumatera Utara, one of the province and becomes one of our tourism assets.

Picture 1 Map of Lake Toba and The Seven Districs Surrounding

Source: Ministry of Public Works Indonesia, 2013.
The aquaculture in lake Toba, first time it is tried in 1988 (Dharma, 1988). Water area that
established before for the aquaculture, in some places in Indonesia, have faced environmental
problem becauce of this uses. At Cirata Reservoir, West Java, the development of aquaculture
encourage eutrophication process. In ultimate point, it can kill the organisms inside the water
massively, as happened in Saguling Reservoir, West Java, 1994 (110 ton) (Lukman, 1996).
In the case of aquaculture, the increase of nutrients in the water comes from the remaining feed and
the fish feces. At the early stages, due to the accumulation of organic material in the bottom waters,
are anaerobic layer formation (Garno & Adibroto, 1990) and followed by the formation of toxic
compounds such as H2S and NH3 . The buildup of organic matter resulting the decrease of oxygen
levels to very low state in the morning and quite critical if the weather is cloudy because there
would be no oxygen supply from the photosynthesis process.
In 2006, there were 5 233 units of the floating cages and became 7 012 units in 2008. Total fish
production from aquaculture reached 47 478 ton in 2010. We can not deny that the aquafarm do big

part for the economy and social development for the population surrounding it. However the
existance of the aquaculture should be controlled so that the impact of the activity will not reach the
Lake's capacity.
Table 1 Fish Cage-Aquaculture Production in Lake Toba, 2010

Lukman & Agus Hamdani, Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), published their research (2011)
titled: Bearing Capacity Estimation of Lake Toba, North Somatera, for Cage Aquaculture
Development. They used Total Phospor as the parameter to show the capacity of The Lake. The
Phospor comes in to the fish body trough the feed, but the remaining feed and the residue that
comes from feses go to the water (Rismeyer, 1998 dalam Azwat et al., 2004). Phospor in water has
character that is can not be cycled trough the gas exchange process, but keep accumulated.

Identification

Picture 2 Lake Toba

Source : Author

Lake Toba and its water has many functions and benefits (LIPI), those are:
as raw water for drinking and other municipal uses,hydropower electricity,
transportation,
agriculture, farm, fish farming (Cage Aquaculture), and
tourism.
The economy and social condition of the community surrounding. The sociaty around Lake toba is
very depend on it to cover their need. Lake Toba is also very beautiful so that become one of the
most valuable tourism object for the national scale.
In this water ecosystem, there are about 8 classes of fito plankton dan 7 classes of zooplankton. The
fertility of the lake waters is mostly determined by the availability of nutrients, oxygen,
temperature, air, turbidity and the presence of plankton. In the waters of Lake Toba Samosir regency
there are many different types of algae and waterplant, for example hyacinth currently has already
spread throughout the district. From the research (Eva MG 2000), the growth of water hyacinth is strongly
influenced by the waters' fertility, the fertility of the lake is strongly influenced by the influx of nutrients (nitrogen and
Phosfor) to Lake Toba derived from domestic waste, sewage, agricultural fertilizers, and aquaculture fish floating net
cage systems where the remaining pellet / feed that is not eaten by the fish will add to the fertility of the lake.
Below is the table that shows the prediction of Phospat that is produced from the cage aquaculture
activity:
Table 2 Prediction Total Phospor (P) related to Fish Production
Total Fish Estimation P Concentration Used P (fish P throwed Disoolved P Total
Production Feed
in
Feed body)
trough feses Residu
Released
(tonnes) * (tonnes)** (tonnes)***
(tonnes)
(tonnes)
(tonnes)
(tonnes)
47 478
59 602
715
270
150
295
Source:
*Anonim (2011) ;
**Lukman et al, 2010 ;
***Garno &Adibroto (1999) : 1,2 % of the feed
****Rismeyer (1998) in Azwar et,al,2004: 38% P use, 21% throw, 41% Residu

446

The criteria that is stated in Indonesia Environmental Ministry Regulation Number 28 / 2009 can
be seen below:
Table 3 Parameter of Trophic Status in the Lake
Trophic Status N av
P av
Chlorophyl av Clarity av
(mg/l)
(mg/l)
(mg/l)
(m)

Prediction
Total Phosphor

Oligotrof

0.650

< 0.010

<0.002

10.0

3.0 17.7

Mesotrof

0.750

< 0.030

<0.005

4.0

10.9 95.6

Eutrof

1.900

< 0.100

< 0.015

2.5

15/02/86

Hipereutrof

> 1.900

0.100

0.200

< 2.5

750 - 1200

Table 4 Trophic Status of Lake Toba according to The Phospor Concentration

Year

Parameter

Phospor
(mg/l)

av Trophic Status

Source

The environment actually has ability to recover itself. The rate that the lake has to flush the old
water can be counted by parameter of the water volume in the lake compared to its outflow
discharge. Lake Toba is very big lake and the volume of the lake is far more than the outflow. So
there is retention time for the water to keep in the reservoir. The retention time of the watrer in Lake
Toba is 81 years (Lukman & Ridwansyah, 2010).
The parameter of retention time is important to know to provide an overview to the bearing
capacity. From this counted rate the planning of Floating Cage Fish development can be taken in
good consideration based on the rate of total phospor released. Thus, main factor of Bearing
Capacity is Retention time (RT) which depends on the volume (V) dan outflow discharge (Q).
Table 5 Physical Parameter in Bearing Capacity Calculation

From table above shown that only 1,23% of the water (and all the contents) will be flushed per year
(point No.5).

Analysis
FAO stated that about 567 aquatic species are currently farmed all over the world. Eating fish is part
of the tradition for many people around the world and also because of its health benefits reasons.
Global production of fish from aquaculture has grown substantially in the past decade, reaching
52.5 million tonnes in 2008, compared with 32.4 million tonnes in 2000. Aquaculture continues to
be the fastest-growing animal food producing sector and currently accounts for nearly half (45.6
percent) of the worlds food fish consumption, compared with 33.8 percent in 2000. (FAO. World

Aquaculture. 2010)
This growing of the aquaculture can be dangerous if not follow by a responsible fish-farming. For
the case of Lake Toba, the water in the lake become a very potential for many uses , including the
based need for human, that is : drinking water. Total Phospor acceptable ([P] f) for drinking water
is 0.002 mg/l while for recreational/ water sport is 0.005 mg/l (Beveridge, 1987). According to the
existing data in table 4, 0.005 mg/l only shown in 1929 and 50 years after that it goes to mesotrofik
state until 2009 , with some years before ever in eutrofic state and even hyper eurotophic.
Follow the constrain due to recreational aim, the eutrofication should be controlled in state of
oligotrophic (phospor and nitorgan concntration is low) because the blooming of the aquatic plan
may be bother for tourists and also people around them. In the next stage, they would threaten the
sustainability of the reservoir and the biota could die. The uses of Lake Toba are made as constrains
to decide the acceptable quality degradation.
Based on Capacity assessment to cage fish farming of Lake Toba has been carried out by the
calculation that follow some scenarios:
the determination of the average Total Phospor acceptable ([P] f) in oligotrophic condition;
determination ([P] f) in oligo-mesotrophic condition, and
determination of ([P] f) at an average trophic status in 2009 measurements (mesotrophic).
The table below shows the maximum / acceptable Total Phospor in condition of each scenario and
rate of fish that could be produced:
Calculation Result

Scenario
I Scenario II
(<0.010 mg/l)
(<0.020 mg/l)

Scenario III
(<0.025 mg/l)

Total Phospor levels acceptable tons / year

324.4

973.3

1297.76

Rate of fish tonnes / year

35 282

101 933

141 130

The calculation is done by following those scenarios because it is too far if we follow ([P] f) for
drinking water (0.002 mg/l) also for recreational/water sport (0.005 mg/l). Because of the uses of
the lake water are already busy/heavy, thus it is hard to make it back to the ideal condition.
General effect to be summarized, are mentioned as follow:
Habitat destructions for various species of fishes' and invertebrates' lifes.
Reduction in biodiversity in aquatic habitats and other species in the food chain.
The concentration of dissolved oxygen down so that some species of fish and shellfish are intolerant
to live.
Damage the water quality for the conservation valued areas / nature reserves wildlife / nature
tourism value.
The occurrence of "algae bloom"
Produce toxic compounds that will kill fish and shellfish, so it is not safe for public consumption
and damage the fishing industry.
Production of water vegetation increases so the use of water for navigation /transportation and
recreation are disturbed. No doubt this has an impact on tourism and the tourism industry as well.

Conclusion
The scenario calculation above tells about reducing the quantity of the aquaculture activity. To keep
the water quality in a state of oligotrophic , limited to 35 000 tonnes of fish that should be produced.

The data in 2010 shows about 47 000 tonnes has been produced. Thus, it is said that the retention
time of Lake Toba is 81 years.
The effective way to deal with eutrophication caused by excess phosphate is to use an integrated
approach to manage and control all nutrient input, so that the concentration of nutrients can be
reduced to a low enough so as not to cause algal bloom. The same approach will be useful also to
overcome the problem of eutrophication caused by nitrogen. Therefore, these controls should also
reduce the loss of P and N. And the efficient ways to reduce and control the P concentration in the
water is to limit or reduce the nutrient load of the main sources of nutrients, in this case is
aquaculture, and increase technological overhaul of discharge of sewage (sewage). Factors of
aquaculture that influence varies from agricultural systems can be the farming method, the quality
or feed technology, type and condition of the area. Also temporary termination can be a good
solution for the environment but maybe too hard for the economic, social, and political situation.
The limitation for the available area for aquaculture can be ruled in the local regulation by the
local government. This area limitation can save the tourism area and navigation activity for the
disturb of cage aquaculture activity. And this activity could be have more clear regulation of
effective and efficient method and developed feed technology to be highly absorbed by the fish and
less residual goes to the water.

Reference:
www.fao.org
www.lipi.go.id
Lukman, & Agus Hamdani. 2011. Estimasi Daya Dukung Perairan Danau Toba Sumatera Utara
Untuk Pengmbangan Budaya Ikan dengan Keramba Jaring Apung. Pusat Penelitian Limonologi
LIPI : 170-177
Simamora, Helmut Todo Tua. 2012. Belajar Tentang Profil Perairan Danau Toba. Private Library:
www.academia.edu