煤化工银河证券 PDF

- http://bg.panlv.
net
2011 10 10
2-3 2011
283 200%
2011 2012

86212025 2602
qiushiliang@chinastock.com.cn
S0130511080004

86212025 2629
zourunfang@chinastock.com.cn
S0130511080003

86106656 8946
juhoulin@chinastock.com.cn
S0130511010007
86106656 8477
wanghuajun@chinastock.com.cn
5000
2
5000
250-300
43%
23
11-09-06

11-08-19
11-06-21

11-05-25

11-04-27
11-03-21
11-02-24
EPS()
PEX
11-13EPS
2011E
2012E
2013E
2011E
2012E
2013E
CAGR
002564.SZ
17.11
0.63
0.90
1.25
27.16
19.01
13.69
41%
22-27
002430.SZ
23.20
0.81
1.05
1.40
28.64
22.10
16.57
33%
29-34
www.chinastock.com.cn
11-04-
- http://bg.panlv.net

GDP
50% 1
2
2-3
2011
283 200%
2011 2012
3
5000
2 50%
50% 5000
25-30%
1250-1500 250-300
43%
2011 2012

....................................................................................................... 1
.................................................................................................. 1
............................................................................................................... 1
................................................................................................................... 2
2 ........................................................................................................... 4
GDP ....................................................................................... 4
GDP ............................................................................................... 8
......................................................................................................... 11
.................................................................................................. 12
......................................................................................................................................... 16
....................................................................................................................................... 16
......................................................................... 17
.................................................................................................. 20
...................................................................................... 22
........................................................................... 23
5000 ................................................................................................. 25
5000 ................................................................................................ 25
43% ............................................................................ 25
........................................................................... 29
............................................................................... 30
............................................................................................................................................................. 33
............................................................................................................................ 33
.................................................................................................. 34
...................................................................................................................................................................... 37
...................................................................................................................................................................... 38
2011 209%
2-3
6-18
3-5
5
2011 2012
1
2 EPC

GDP
50%
1
2011 590 2010

209% 283 200% 2011
56.62
100
300,000m3/h 1,000 /
240,000m3/h
524
524
GEA SPX
Flowserve
ITT Flowserve KSB
2015 260
80 600 360 100 100
800
2
2
8000
870
5557 27
4
4000 200 200

320 87 2020 2000
1000 300 200 2010 140

100 106
2015 260
80 600 360 100 100
800
GDP
1
70%
2010 32.5 2000 2.23
8.36% 2010 2.27 2000
2.25 8.48%
5
()
40
6 70%
28.1
30
29.1
20%
30.7
100%
32.5
15%
25.9
80%
23.6
21.3
60%
18.4
20
14.6
15.0
10%
15.9
40%
10
69.2
68.3
68.0
69.8
69.5
70.8
71.1
71.1
70.3
70.4
70.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
5%
20%
0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0%
50%
GDP
1
2 8
GDP
3
GDP
60
48
50
60
60
60
60
60
60
10
60
11
60
12
120
13
60
14
60
15
60
16
20
17
67
18
60
19
140
20
100
21
122
22
120
23
20
2000
2009 8
40
2010 3
40
2009 12
16
55
40
80
40
40
40
10
40
11
40
12
40
13
100
14
40
15
40
16
30
17
40
18
20
19
40
1500
120
20
20
20
20
20
50
40
40
10
60
11
40
12
20
400
GDP
1 6000
108 16 50
60 20
100 10
40
16
876.25 1~7 488.03

1000 60
2011
3000 / 30 /
157 146
100 /
88 58
6014.95
16
16 20
142 108 /18
2015
1000
780
100
140
300
100
16 2011 716
() 430 60
100 20 2011
350 300 150 60
3 16
20 20 2011
20 20 40
40 80
80 6 280
2011 7 8
4
45 533 86
620
4
30 52
40 60
135 240
500
1100
200 200
6000
2015 1000 780

100 140 300
100
2011 7 13 8
2009 9

(
[2010]617 )
2.19
40%
6250
167 20.3% 4
36.81 / 14.72 / 4
706.2 18.5%
9
10
2015 200 360 240

500 170 100 50 PVC
1
55 13.75 2011 10
2013 55 2013 2015
110 2011 55.5
60 2011 22 31 2014
100 20 2011 25 2013

40
100 40 40 180
40 40 40
540 2011 360 25
2013
600 200 180 60 60
180 60 60 140 46
2011 2~3
100 30
20 30
PVC
3052 95 4070 7
2150 90 95
12 PVC
50 PVC 98
55
2011 10 60
100 60
2011 10 540
636 540
180 2011 5 20
180 60 211 2011 6
2011 4-5
2011 1 20
36 82.87
10
100 20 100
2009
320
2
270
2010
263.4 320
2010
277 55 13.75
2010
636 540 180
2011 5
180 60 211
2011 6
600 200 60 180

7
60 60 140 46
100 40 40 180
40 40 40
2011 1~2
100 30
10
20 30
1 4000
4000
2020
3000 1
52
60
9
108 /
123
2008-12-30
18 /
18 /
15
2009-12-18
60 /
170
2010-8-8
550
52 18.48
4.12 1.38
11
2 1000
46 /
40 / 40 /
20 / 14 /
50 / 28 /
1000
3 2000
2.27 5
2000 21.76
16
636 540 180

2011 5 540
12011 590 209%
1953 9
6
12
10 9 6
30 / 60 /
120 /
5000 /50 /
30 / 60 /
2011 590 2010

209%2011
48%
2011 9 16 2011 8
2011 805.58 82.87 20
13
112011
DUYEN HAI3
150 /
50
2011-8-26
83.98
2011-8-5
50
48.51
2011-7-11
68.3
2011-6-25
20.8
2011-6-16
53.2
2011-6-15
27.3
2011-5-31
10.3
2011-5-14
24.2
2011-4-13
4.76
2011-3-17
14.7
2011-3-2
18
10.6
2011-2-22
18
13.8
2011-2-22
33
11
2011-2-22
33
82.87
2011-1-20
36
2011-1-13
48
200 / 350 /
/
200 / 350 /
15 /
10 1,4-
72 /
4X5 KW
15 /
250MW
50 / PVC
250MW
AT88
LNG
1.5 /
40 /30 /
100 100 120
20
LNG
4.05
2011-1-13
24
3000 /
4.5
2011-1-13
10
540.87
22011
14
2011
2011 56.62
54.16 ; 2.46
122011
EPC
Nm3/a
120 / 60 /
104224
2011-9-13
21
3315
2011-7-26
36
3000
2011-6-28
15
90600
2011-6-7
25
2700
2011-5-24
13
6200
2011-5-19
16
141482
2011-1-27
29
304710
2011-1-14
26
320 Nm3/a 20
60 80
200 /350 /
10 /
30 /
20
30 /
656231
15
2009
13
2006 12
2006 2020 1
50% 2020 3000
2000 800
6600
1
2009 5
2009 9
2010 6
2010 12
2011 3
2011

100 /
2011 4
2 50 100
100
16
2006 12
2006 2020 1
50% 10% 2020 3000
2000 800
6600
2009
2010 12
2011 7 40 60
2009 9
2011 4
50 100
100
50
100
()
1923 40 500
1924 45
1937 1943
1945
1959 70 4.7 1967
1973 13 1000
1620 1740 8 5
17
13
13
80
14
1924
1937 1943
1923-1967
1967
1973 13
80
1968-2005
11
18
10
15
()
()
2008 12 30 2010 8 24
()
()
5578 52.36
108
123
2008-12-30
90.94% 56%~57%
2011 3700 46.7
8
2011 5 1 509 12236
(
)
16
80.52 16.16 10.34
22
2009-3-20
()
4.8 0.89 8.75
40
25
2009-9
2009 9 70%
20
18
2009-12
2009 12 100 20
60
170
2010-8-8
2010 8 MTO 39
31%2009 8
40
77
()
8.1
2012
40
66
4%2010 2013
16
88.7
2009 12
300
210
7
()

8
()
55
10
13.75
278
2011
55 2011
19
16
Shell 29
12
13 Shell
1
400 / 20 7%
60 / 600 /
74 /
35 40-50
70
2011 9 30
5500 670 / 5000
625 / 5600 500 /
5000 360 / 5500 500 /6200
640 / 4000 435 / 5000
600 / 5200 754 / 6300-6900
983 / 6300 188 /
5800 880-890 /5500 835-845
/5000 745-755 /
2011 100 / 9 30
20
188 / 360 /
142011 100 /
15
2011930
1000
880
800
670
600
500
360
400
200
188
2
2011 5 2011
21.6
2008 12 30
1
2011
3700 46.7 8
16 2009 3 2010
7 2011
5 1 509 12236 80.52 16.16
10.34 4.8 0.89 8.75
21
16
17
16
2.04
6.4
4~4.5
4.11
6.06
10~12
8~9
12~14
18
22
17
MTO,MTP
77.8
77.5
F-T
71.9
70.1
67.6
67.3
65.1
59.9
70%
2010 1.5 960 Nm3 398
18
9001300
4204801020Mpa
23
19
()
LPG ()
1.3-1.4
()
1.0-1.1
(MTO)
3.0-3.2
(MTP)
3.0-3.2
()
6.1
24
5000
5000
2 50%
1
50%
40% 10%
50% 5000
20
19 50%
40%
20%
25%
5%
10%
50%
30%
20%
43%
25-30%
1250-1500 250-300
2009 2007
20082009 385465
40%
25
21 40%
600
60%
500
50%
400
40%
43%
300
30%
200
20%
100
10%
0%
2007
2008
2009
2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E
H2S
22 16 1
23 16 2
26
24 16 3
25
40 /
2040 /
3800Mark-IV
48
3200/3800
18
46
46
46
45000 /
46
500t/h
46
10
11
12
27
524
21
PTA
C3
PVC

524
PTA
28
TexacoShellGSP
LurgiHT-L GSP
GSP
Texaco
Shell
23 GSP
GSP
26
HT-L SHELL GSP

TEXACO
22
20 /
2006 10
2008 10
2007 1
2008 10
29
23
30 /
2800/3200 2
30 /
2800/3200 2
30 /
3200/3800 1
120 /
3200/3800 4
30 /
2800/3200 2
18 /
2800/3200 1
30 /
2800/3200 2
60 /
3200/3800 2
30 /52
2800/3200 2
10
45 /
2800/3200 3
40 /60
2800/3200 2
11
23
20 / 9
1500 75*9=675
1500
100
24
20 /
3200/3800 9
- 20 /
3200/3800 9
20
2800/3200 2
20
, Texaco
LurgiShell
300,000m3/h
120,000m3/h
1,000 /
240,000m3/h
100,000m3/h
30
1,200,000m3/h
27 6
28 4
25
1
2
3
4
5
6
100
100
1000 /
100
300000m /h
120000m /h
240000m /h
100000m /h
3
30
30
30000m /h
40000m /h
31
26
3
m /h
600004
2007
480006
2007
580003
2006
60000
2004
60000
2004
52000
2005
52000
2004
52000
2004
51800
2004
10
50000 2
2004
11
48000
2005
12
48000
2003
13
48000
2003
14
48000
2003
15
48000
2003
16
48000
2005
17
40000
2004
18
40000
2002
19
40000
1993
20
30000
2005
21
30000 2
2005
22
28000
1998
23
18000
2002
24
14000
1998
25
11000 3
1993
26
10000
1994
27
7500
1999
28
6000
1993
29
6000
1991
30
2000
2000
32
2011 3
40% 20112013 0.63 0.90 1.25
27
5
6
10
PTA
1.
50%
,
2011 636 540
33
30
2.
2011 5 20 25 2.5
40180 4180
EPC
3.
6
3
30
2013 30%
2011 35 2012 30 22-27
1
2
3
2010
23.88 2.58 15
2011-2013 2011-2013
34
0.81 1.05 1.40

27-32 29-34
282008
3
(m /h)
m /h
20,000
20,000 40,000
40,000
1,000,155
99,155
339,200
561,800
546,580
205,580
251,000
90,000
530,000
530,000
184,000
257,400
77,400
98,000
82,000
429,900
380,900
49,000
2,948,035
763,035
737,200
1,447,800
184,000
1.
COREX IGCC
10%
2.
5
8% 2015 520
5 5% 2015 5300
11 12
3.
35
2\
60
10% 30%~40%
3
2011-2013 0.81 1.05 1.40

27-32 29-34
36

1 ................................................................................................. 1
2 EPC ......................................................................................................................................... 1
3 .............................................................................................................................................. 2
4 .................................................................................................................................................. 2
5 ............................................................................................................................... 5
6 70% ....................................................................................................................... 5
7.................................................................................................................... 5
8 ................................................................................................. 5
9..................................................................................................... 9
10 ......................................................................................................................... 9
11............................. 18
12.................................................................................................................... 20
13 Shell .................................................................................................. 20
142011 100 / ....................................................................................... 21
15 ......................................................................................... 21
16 ............................................................................................................................... 22
17................................................................................................. 22
18 ...................................................................................................................................... 22
19 50% ................................................................................................................... 25
20.................................................................................................................... 25
21
40% ............................................................................... 26
22 16 1 ............................................................................................................ 26
23 16 2 ............................................................................................................ 26
24 16 3 ............................................................................................................ 27
25 ..................................................................................... 27
26 ..................................................................................... 29
27 6 ..................................................................................... 31
28 4 ..................................................................................... 31
37

1 ................................................................................................. 3
2
2 ................................................................................ 4
3 ......................................................................................... 6
4 ..................................................................................... 7
5 ..................................................................................... 7
6 ....................................................................................................................... 8
7 ........................................................................................... 10
8 ...................................................................................................... 11
9 .............................................................................................................. 11
10 9 6 ........................................................................................................ 13
112011 .............................................................. 14
122011 ..................................................................... 15
13................................................................................................................................... 16
14.............................................. 18
15
....................................................................................... 19
16 .................................................................................................... 22
17 ........................................................................................................................... 23
18................................................................................................. 23
19 .................................................................................................... 24
2040 / ....................................................................................... 27
21................................................................................................................................... 28
22................................................................................................................................... 29
23.................................................................................................................... 30
24 ........................................................................................................................... 30
25 ........................................................................................................................... 31
26................................................................................................................................... 32
27 ............................................... 33
282008 ........................................................................................ 35
38
612
20%
10%
612
20%
612
10%20%
612
612
10%
01157.HK0317.HK
01766.SH
A 600031.SH000157.SZ
601766.SH
601989.SH
600835.SH000887.SZ
600118.SH
300024.SZ
300064.SZ
002430.SZ
002111.SZ
601798.SH002564.SZ300126.SZ
35 C
010-83574171
fuchuxiong@chinastock.com.cn
99 26
021-20257811
yumiao_jg@chinastock.com.cn
26
www.chinastock.com.cn
0755-83453719 zhanlu@chinastock.com.cn

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2011 590 2010

ITT Flowserve KSB

4000 200 200

1000 300 200 2010 140

876.25 1~7 488.03

142 108 /18

2015 1000 780

2015 200 360 240

100 20 2011 25 2013

600 200 180 60 60

636 540 180

600 200 60 180

636 540 180

12011 590 209%

2011 590 2010

100 100 120

80.52 16.16 10.34

4.8 0.89 8.75

2010 1.5 960 Nm3 398

2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E

HT-L SHELL GSP

0.81 1.05 1.40

2011-2013 0.81 1.05 1.40

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