Municipal elections

in northern Kosovo:
towards a new balance?

Filip Ejdus, Leon Malazogu and Milan Ni

www.cepolicy.org

DAV4 Full Report | 1

Municipal elections in northern Kosovo:

towards a new balance?
By Filip Ejdus, Leon Malazogu and Milan Ni 1

Executive summary
The m unic ip a l ele c tio ns in Ko so vo o n
3 No ve m b e r w ill b e a litm us te st fo r
the Brussels Ag re e m ent a nd fo r the
no rm a lisa tio n o f rela tio ns b e tw ee n
Se rb ia a nd Ko so vo , b ut a lso a n o m e n
fo r the EU s a b ility to im p o se sta b ility
in its b a c kya rd . This p a p e r a im s to
a ssist a ll sta ke hold e rs to the Brussels
Ag re e m e nt
to
w o rk effe c tively
to w a rd a p o sitive o utc o m e in
no rthe rn Ko so vo (a s d iffe re ntly a s this
o utc o m e m a y b e a sse sse d b y e a c h
o f the m ), b ut a lso to p re p a re fo r
c o nting e nc ie s.
The vo te r turno ut in the fo ur Se rb m a jo rity no rthe rn m unic ip a litie s is a s
im p o rta nt a s the ir rela tio ns w ith
Prishtina a fte rw a rd s.

While the no rthe rn p olitic ia ns ha ve

e m b ra c e d a p a ssive b o yc o tt, se ve ra l
vio lent inc id e nts he ra ld a c lim a te of
a c tive intim id a tio n tha t c o uld se rio usly
re d uc e turno ut o r p o te ntia lly ha lt the
ele c to ra l p ro c e ss a ltog e the r. The EU
se e m s w illing to a c c e p t a fa irly low
turno ut a s a suffic ie nt le g a l b a sis fo r the
ne w m unic ip a l institutio ns. Ho w e ve r, it
is ha rd to se e a ny se rio us c o nting e nc y
p re p a ra tio ns a Pla n B to p ut thing s
b a c k o n tra c k in c a se o f d e ra ilm e nt.
The p a p e r loo ks a t the c ha lle ng e s
a he a d a nd a na lyse s the la te st
d e velo p me nts a m ong
the
no rth
Ko so vo Se rb p olitic a l elite a nd the role s
p la ye d b y Belg ra d e a nd Prishtina . It
e nd s w ith a c o nsid e ra tio n o f fo ur
sc e na rio s fo r the ele c tio ns a nd the ir
a fte rm a th (sum m a rise d o n the ne xt
p a g e ).

1 Filip Ejd us is Assista nt Professo r a t the Fa c ulty o f Politic a l Sc ie nc e s/ Unive rsity o f Belg ra d e a nd m em b e r o f the Ma na g em ent

Bo a rd of the Belg ra d e Ce ntre o f Sec urity Polic y. Leo n Ma la zog u is Direc to r o f the Dem oc ra c y fo r De velop m e nt Institute in
Prishtina . Mila n Ni is Se nio r Fellow a t the Ce ntra l Euro p ea n Polic y Institute , a re g io na l think ta nk b a sed in Bra tisla va . This p a p e r
is the first in a se ries o f re se a rc h p a p e rs p ub lishe d w ithin the p rojec t Vise g ra d Sup p o rt fo r Dia log ue b etwee n Se rb ia a nd
Ko so vo , a nd is sup p o rte d b y the Inte rna tio na l Viseg ra d Fund .

More desired outcome

The realistic scenario

Less likely

M ore tha n 30% of K/ Serb s vote

Und isp uted elec toral p roc ess
The joint list m ust form c oalitions w ith
other K/ Serb p a rties, a lso in the
south
The Assoc ia tion of Serb
M unic ip alities sm oothly esta blished
Interim Assem bly fa d es into
irreleva nc e
The EU sp onsored Belg rad e-Prishtina
neg otia tions m ove into the next
p ha se, ta c kling new issues

The turnout hovers a round 15-30%

The elec tion p roc ess is d isp uted b y
lim ited violenc e b ut is not d era iled
The joint list d om ina tes the
Assoc ia tion of Serb M unic ip alities
The new m unic ip al struc tures
m a inta in d ista nc e from Prishtina
K/ Alb a nia n m a jority inc rea singly
nervous a b out sta te d ysfunc tionality
Belg ra d e-Prishtina neg otia tions
c ontinue a t slow er p a c e

The pessimistic cenario

The disastrous scenario

Ac tive b oyc ott results in a turnout
b elow 5%
Violent inc id ents lead to the
w ithd ra w a l of OSCE sta ff from
p olling sta tions in northern Kosovo
Prishtina a p p oints p rovisional
struc tures (w ith or w ithout c onsent
of Belg ra d e)
New b a rric a d es, KFOR use of forc e,
new c yc le of violenc e
Fa ll of Serb ia n g overnm ent
Dea d loc k in Belg rad e-Prishtina ta lks,
sta lem a te in Serb ia s EU a c c ession

More likely

The optimistic scenario

Sec urity inc id ents, a c tive b oyc ott,

turnout a t 5%-15%
Prishtina rejec ts hig h b y-m a il turnout
K/ Alb a nia ns a c q uire sig nific a nt
sha re in northern m unic ip alities
Interim Assem bly step s up resista nc e
a nd g row s in im p orta nc e
Inter-ethnic tensions inc rea se a nd
Belg ra d e-Prishtina norm alisa tion is in
jeop a rd y

Less desired outcome

Introduction
On 19 Ap ril 2013, Se rb ia a nd Ko so vo
sig ne d a n a g re e me nt whic h ha s the
p o te ntia l to
be
histo ric , if
fully
2
im p le m ente d . Me d ia te d b y the EU, it
w a s d e sig ne d to d efuse the la st c o nflic t
in the We ste rn Ba lka ns, a nd re m o ve one
o f the m a in log ja m s o n the p a ths o f
Se rb ia
a nd
Ko so vo
tow a rd s EU
m e m b e rship . The Brusse ls Ag re e m e nt, the
m o nike r it q uic kly a c q uire d , c o uld thus
b e a ha rb ing e r o f a ne w e ra in the
re la tio nship b e twe en Belg ra d e a nd
Prishtina , a s w e ll a s fo r the ir Euro p e a n
tra nsfo rm a tio n.
The a g re e ment p ro vid e d fo r the inc lusio n
o f the fo ur no rthe rnmo st Se rb -m a jo rity
m unic ip a litie s into Ko so vo 's le g a l syste m .
The
e sta b lishm e nt
of
an
Asso c ia tio n/ Co m m unity o f Se rb -m a jo rity
m unic ip a litie s is to furthe r g ra nt the m
sig nific a nt se lf-g o ve rna nc e (so m e sa y
a uto no m y). The p ro c e ss is to b e se t in
m o tio n a fte r m unic ip a l e le c tio ns w hic h
a re sc he d ule d to ta ke p la c e o n 3
No ve m b e r. As o nly le g a l a nd le g itim a te
m unic ip a l a utho ritie s m a y e sta b lish the
Asso c ia tio n (thro ug h the d ele g a tio n o f
c o unc illo rs up w a rd s), the p a rtic ip a tio n o f
Se rb s in the up c o m ing ele c tio ns is
c ruc ia l. The ele c tio ns w ill b e a litm us te st
fo r the Brusse ls Ag re e m e nt, b ut a lso a
p o rte nt fo r the EU s a b ility to im p o se
sta b ility in its b a c kya rd .
This p a p e r a im s to a na lyse the
c ha lle ng e s a he a d a nd to a ssist a ll
sta ke hold e rs to the Brussels Ag re e m e nt
to wo rk effe c tive ly to w a rd a p o sitive
The First Ag re em ent of Princ ip les Go ve rning the
No rm a lisa tion o f Rela tio ns, full text a va ila b le he re:
http :/ / w ww .rts.rs/ up lo a d / sto ryBo xFile Da ta / 2013/ 04/ 20/
3224154/ Orig ina lni%20te kst%20sp o ra zum a .p d f
2

o utc o m e (a s d iffe re ntly a s this o utc o m e

m a y b e a sse sse d b y e a c h o f the
sta ke hold e rs), b ut a lso to p re p a re fo r
c o nting e nc ie s. The p a p e r sta rts w ith a
re fle c tio n on the p re p a ra tio ns fo r the
m unic ip a l e le c tio ns, a na lyse s the role s
a nd p re fe renc e s o f Belg ra d e a nd
Prishtina , a nd then zo om s in o n the la te st
d e velo p me nts in no rthe rn Ko so vo . La stly,
the p a p e r c onsid e rs fo ur sc e na rio s fo r
the ele c tio ns the m selve s a nd the ir
a fte rm a th. Deline a ting a n o p tim istic ,
re a listic , p e ssim istic a s w ell a s a d isa stro us
sc e na rio , the p a p e r a lso e xp lo re s the
fo rc e s tha t c o uld p ush d e velo p me nts in
o ne w a y o r a no the r.

1. Preparations for
the elections
As
w ith
the
Ag re e m e nt
itse lf,
p re p a ra tio ns fo r the ele c tio ns ha ve b ee n
fra ug ht w ith te nsio ns a nd a m b ig uitie s.
Belg ra d e a nd Prishtina ha ve m a inta ine d
the ir d e c la ra to ry c o m m itm e nt, b ut ha ve
no t d one a ll the y c o uld to sm o o th
tra nsitio n o n the g ro und . The m a yo rs a nd
m o st p olitic a l re p re se nta tive s o f the
no rthe rn Ko so vo Se rb s ha ve m o unte d a
b o yc o tt a g a inst ele c tio ns, w hile re c e nt
vio lenc e in the no rth ra ise s se rio us
se c urity c o nc e rns tha t c o uld p o te ntia lly
und e rm ine the entire p ro c e ss.
The Brussels Ag re e m e nt fo re se e s tha t
m unic ip a l e le c tio ns sha ll b e o rg a nise d
in the no rthe rn m unic ip a litie s in 2013 w ith
the
fa c ilita tio n
of
the
OSCE in
a c c o rd a nc e w ith Ko so vo la w a nd
inte rna tio na l sta nd a rd s . 3 The OSCE w ill
p ra c tic a lly o rg a nise the ele c tio ns in
3

Point 12 o f the Brussels Ag reem ent.

no rthe rn Ko so vo , o n b e ha lf o f Ko so vo s
Ce ntra l Ele c tio n Co m m issio n (CEC ). The
OSCE is to p la c e tw o o b se rve rs in e a c h
p o lling sta tio n a nd p o te ntia lly in site s in
Se rb ia .
The unc e rta inty ste m s no t only fro m the
c o m p le xitie s o n the g ro und , b ut a lso
fro m the 15 va g uely d e fine d p o ints o f the
a g re e me nt itse lf, w hic h le a ve a m p le
w ig g le ro o m fo r d iffe rent inte rp re ta tio ns.
Fo r Prishtina , the Ag re e m ent is a n
im p o rta nt ste p tow a rd s full no rm a lisa tio n
b e tw ee n tw o so ve re ig n c o untrie s a nd
w ill
eventua lly
le a d
to
Se rb ia s
re c o g nitio n
of
Ko so vo
as
an
ind e p e nd e nt sta te . Be lg ra d e insists tha t
the Ag re e m ent is sta tus-ne utra l a nd tha t
ele c tio ns a re inte nd e d to b ring m o re o f
Se rb ia
into
Ko so vo .
During
the
ne g o tia tio ns, the a m b ig uity o f the te xt
se rve d
c o nstruc tive ly
to
re a c h
a g re e me nt a nd m a sk the re m a ining
d isa g re e m ents.
Ho w e ve r,
if
suc h
ne b ulo us w o rd ing w a s the m a xim um
c o m p ro m ise tha t c o uld b e re a c he d ,
d iffe re nc e s we re ultim a tely b o und to
c la sh on the g ro und .
One of the p o ints o f d isa g re e me nt w a s
the a p p e a ra nc e o f Re p ub lic o f Ko so va
o n the b a llo t p a p e r. Fro m Se rb ia s p o int
o f vie w , no sym b ols o f Ko so vo s
sta te ho o d w e re a c c e p ta b le on the
b a llo t g ive n tha t the Brusse ls Ag re e m e nt
is sta tus-ne utra l. At the sa m e tim e ,
Ko so vo refe rs to the wo rd ing tha t
ele c tio ns a re o rg a nise d in a c c o rd a nc e
w ith Ko so vo la w (p o int 11), he nc e its
insiste nc e
to
m a inta in
the
sa m e
a p p e a ra nc e a s in p re vio us e le c tio ns. The
issue w a s fina lly re solve d in e a rly
Se p te m b e r when Ko so vo s CEC d e c id e d
to re mo ve the re fe re nc e to the re p ub lic

a nd le a ve the na m e a nd lo g o of the
CEC, und e r c le a r p re ssure fro m the
p o litic a l to p b ra ss.
The m o st im p o rta nt e le c tio n-rela te d
d e a d line w a s 4 Se p tem b e r fo r the
re g istra tio n o f p olitic a l e ntitie s a nd the
c e rtific a tio n o f c a nd id a te lists. While
ne g o tia tio ns c o ntinue d until d a ys b e fo re
the d e a d line , Ko so vo Se rb s sub m itte d 18
lists, c o m p e ting in 24 (o ut o f 38)
m unic ip a litie s inc lud ing the fo ur no rthe rn
o ne s. Tw o lists (o ne o f the m o p e nly
sup p o rte d b y Se rb ia s G o ve rnm ent)
w e re instruc te d b y the CEC to re mo ve
the w o rd Se rb ia fro m the na me . 4 The
d e a d line fo r the re g istra tio n o f vo te rs
living o utsid e o f Ko sovo w a s first
sc he d ule d fo r 11 Se p te m b e r b ut w a s
then e xtend e d to 17 Se p te m b e r.
Belg ra d e ha stily sub m itte d to the OSCE
a ro und 40,000 a p p lic a tio ns o f d isp la c e d
Ko so vo Se rb s w ho w a nte d to re g iste r to
vo te in Ko so vo s m unic ip a l ele c tio ns.
So m e 6,600 a p p lic a tio ns w e re a c c e p te d
w hile a ll o the rs we re re je c te d a s
inc o m p le te m a inly d ue to the a b se nc e
o f a p re se nt o r fo rme r a d d re ss in Ko so vo
o r o the r p ro o f of re sid e nc e . An
a d d itio na l num b e r of a ro und 12,000
Se rb s w e re a d d e d to the Vo te rs List
d uring ne g o tia tio ns in Brusse ls. 5 Prishtina
ha s, in the me a ntim e , p re p a re d fo r
ele c tio ns, a nd it ha s g o ne o ut o f its w a y
4 The Go ve rnm e nt of Se rb ia w hic h p rop osed the list
Civil Initia tive Se rb ia c ha ng e d the na m e into Se rb ia n
Civic Initia tive (Se r. Gra a nska inic ija tiva srp ska ). The
othe r p rob lem a tic list w a s initia lly entitled Se rb ia ,
Dem oc ra c y, Justic e Olive r Iva novi . It c ha ng e d its
na m e into SDJ-Olive r Iva no vi (Se r. Gra a nska
inic ija tiva SDP Olive r Iva no vi ).
5 Ta njug . 1 Oc to b e r 2013. Jo s 12.000 c e up isa ti za
izb o re .
http :/ / w ww .b 92.net/ info / vesti/ ind e x.p hp ?yyyy=2013&
mm =10&d d =01&na v_id =760235&utm _sourc e =tw itterfe
e d &utm _m ed ium =tw itte r

to
a c c o m m o d a te
Se rb
re q ue sts.
Co nsid e ring the stra te g ic im p o rta nc e o f
no rthe rn p a rtic ip a tio n, se nio r p o litic a l
le a d e rship ha s w e ig he d in to g e t the
CEC to vio la te its rule s a nd e xte nd the
d e a d line fo r vo te r re g istra tio n in Se rb ia ,
d ro p m e ntio n o f the Re p ub lic , a nd
a c c e p t the re c ruitm e nt in its se nio r
e c helons o f a Se rb fro m the no rth.

2. Serbias storylines
and strategies
Belg ra d e ha s m a inta ine d a thre e p ro ng e d
d isc o urse
re g a rd ing
the
Ag re e m e nt in g ene ra l a nd ele c tio ns in
p a rtic ula r. The first sto ryline is a im e d a t
Brusse ls a nd c a n b e sum m a rise d a s
Se rb ia is g iving up e ffe c tive c ontrol o ve r
the no rth o f Ko so vo , b ut w ill no t, a t le a st
fo r the tim e b e ing , re c o g nise Ko so vo .
Ta ilo re d fo r the d o me stic a ud ie nc e , the
se c o nd sto ryline inte rp re ts the Brusse ls
Ag re e m e nt a s a vic to ry o ve r Prishtina
a nd the m a xim um Belg ra d e c o uld g e t
a t this p o int . Ac c o rd ing to this na rra tive ,
Ko so vo Se rb s w ill o b ta in le g itim a te
institutio ns, w hile Se rb ia ha s no t sw e rve d
fro m its p le d g e ne ve r to re c o g nise
Ko so vo s unila te ra l ind e p end e nc e . The
third sto ryline a im s to m o b ilise no rth
Ko so vo Se rb s, to who m the Ag re e m e nt
w a s p re se nte d a s a ve hic le to re ta in
Se rb ia s
p re se nc e
a nd
d isrup t
ind e p e nd e nt
Ko so vo
fro m
w ithin.
Prishtina is e sp e c ia lly c onc e rne d w ith this
na rra tive , fe a ring tha t the Asso c ia tio n o f
Se rb
Munic ip a litie s c o uld
bec ome
Belg ra d e s Tro ja n
Ho rse
w ithin
a
g ra d ua lly Da yto nise d a nd d ysfunc tio na l
Ko so vo .

The G o ve rnme nt o f Se rb ia invite d the

Se rb s fro m Ko so vo a s well a s tho se
elig ib le to vo te fro m Se rb ia to p a rtic ip a te
in the ele c tio ns, a s d id the Se rb ia n
Ortho d o x Churc h. It a lso sp o nso re d a
jo int list in the sha p e o f a c ivic initia tive in
the no rth a s w ell a s in the so uth. The
a rg um e nt p ut fo rw a rd b y Belg ra d e is
tha t the jo int list re d uc e s w a ste d vo te s,
inc re a se s the re p re se nta tio n o f Se rb s,
a nd a s suc h is the b e st w a y fo r the no rth
Ko so vo Se rb s to sp e a k w ith o ne vo ic e ,
sta nd jo intly fo r the ir inte re sts a nd e njo y
Se rb ia s o ffic ia l sup p o rt. While the jo int list
m a ke s se nse in the m unic ip a litie s w he re
Se rb s a re a num e ric a l m ino rity, it m a ke s
little sense in the fo ur no rthe rnm o st
m unic ip a litie s w he re Se rb s ha ve a n
o ve rwhelm ing m a jo rity. In e ffe c t, the
sing le list c o uld e a sily ta ke virtua lly a ll the
c o unc illo rs, le a ving
no
o p p o sitio n.
Prishtina fe a rs tha t the re a l a im b e hind
the sing le list is to e nsure tha t the
Asso c ia tio n re m a ins firm ly in Belg ra d e s
ha nd s, a n inte rp re ta tio n stre ng the ne d b y
p ro vo c a tive sta te m e nts from the Se rb ia n
Ministe r fo r Ko so vo Ale ksa nd a r Vulin.
Lo o m ing e a rly ele c tio ns in Se rb ia m a y
a lso b e a d d ing to a te nd e nc y no t to
im p le m ent the d ia lo g ue a s a g ree d
up o n. Mo st re c e ntly, a fte r b e ing d e nie d
e ntry into Ko sovo b y Prishtina d uring the
ele c to ra l c a m p a ig n, Se rb ia s Prim e
Ministe r Ivic a Da c ic thre a tene d to le a ve
a ll future neg o tia tio ns if the d e c isio n
w e re no t revo ke d . Altho ug h Da c ic w a s
o ffic ia lly sup p o se d to tra vel to Ko so vo to
sta rt the c a m p a ig n in fa vo ur o f the
Belg ra d e- sp o nso re d jo int list (in the
so uthe rn m unic ip a lity, no t in the no rth!),
his p o m p o us re a c tio n m a y a lso m a rk the
b e g inning of the ele c to ra l c a m p a ig n fo r
6

the ne xt
Se rb ia .

p a rlia m e nta ry

ele c tio ns in

One o f the re a so ns why the G o ve rnme nt

o f Se rb ia c ho se to se t up a jo int list
(re g iste re d a s a c ivic initia tive ) w a s to
a vo id the re g istra tio n o f Belg ra d e-b a se d
p a rtie s w ith a utho ritie s in Prishtina . If the
g o ve rning p a rtie s fro m Be lg ra d e (SNS
a nd SPS) ha d re g iste re d the ir Ko so vo
b ra nc he s w ith the CEC a s fully fle d g e d
ne w p a rtie s (a nd ne w a c ro nym s), the y
w o uld ha ve b e en m o re vulne ra b le to
c ritic ism b y the e xtre me rig ht fo r tre a so n.
Ind ee d , up until re c e ntly, Belg ra d e ha d
trie d to ke e p the m unic ip a l ele c tio ns lo w
o n the d o me stic a g e nd a , in o rd e r to
shie ld itse lf fro m Ko so vo -rela te d c ritic ism
a t ho m e .
A sig nific a nt b y-p ro d uc t o f the jo int c ivic
list o p tio n (o r p o ssib ly o ne o f the m a in
o b je c tive s) ha s b e e n the m a rg ina lisa tio n
o f Se rb p a rtie s w hic h a lre a d y p a rtic ip a te
in Ko so vo s institutio na l life . At the sa m e
tim e , the G o ve rnme nt o f Se rb ia ha s
fa ile d to g a in the sup p o rt fo r ele c tio ns o f
the m o st influe ntia l m a yo rs a nd p olitic a l
le a d e rs in the fo ur no rthe rn-m o st
m unic ip a litie s, w ho rem a in a d a m a ntly
o p p o se d to the Ag re e m e nt. It is no
surp rise tha t the y c o uld no t p e rsua d e the
o ffic ia ls o f the De m o c ra tic Pa rty o f
Se rb ia (DSS), in o p p o sitio n in Se rb ia , to
p a rtic ip a te . Ho w e ve r, Belg ra d e w a s a lso
una b le to g a in the sup p o rt of m o st o f the
no rthe rn
le a d e rs w ho
b elong
to
b ra nc he s of Se rb ia s ruling p a rtie s, w ith
the no ta b le e xc e p tio n o f Krstim ir Pa ntic ,
fo rm e r Munic ip a l Pre sid e nt o f no rthe rn (in
Se rb ia re fe rre d to a s Ko so vska ) Mitro vic a .
Cro w d ing o ut o the r g ro up ing s p a ve s the
w a y fo r Belg ra d e to ensure the
Asso c ia tio n re fle c ts the g o ve rnme nt in

Belg ra d e a nd , a s suc h, is e a sie r to

c o ntrol. This is the m a in c o nc e rn fo r
Prishtina , a nd m a y b e a re a son fo r
Ko so vo Alb a nia n p a rtie s to fo rg e a
b ro a d c o a litio n a lo ng e thnic line s in
re turn.

3. Northern Kosovo
Serbs: anxiety and
fragmentation
In sp ite o f the p olic y shift in Be lg ra d e ,
m a ny Se rb s in no rthe rn Ko so vo ha ve
re fuse d
to
ac c ept
the
Brusse ls
Ag re e m e nt, a ltho ug h
re sista nc e
is
g ra d ua lly w e a ring a w a y. Ove r the p a st
14 ye a rs, no rthe rn Se rb s we re mo b ilise d
p rim a rily b y the d e sire to re m a in p a rt o f
Se rb ia a nd ha ve often c onsc io usly
w ithd ra w n the m selve s fro m d e c isio nm a king , le a ving re sp o nsib ility sq ua re ly in
the ha nd s o f the Belg ra d e a utho ritie s.

Sinc e they w e re no t p re sent a t EUsp o nso re d ne g o tia tio ns, no rthe rn Se rb s

w e re ta ke n a b a c k b y the sw iftne ss o f the
Ag re e m e nt. Ac c using Belg ra d e o f a sello ut, the p olitic a l e sta b lishm e nt in the
no rth e sta b lishe d a n Inte rim Asse m b ly a s
a ve hic le to und e rm ine the effo rts to
ele c t ne w m unic ip a litie s. 6 The m o st vo c a l
o p p o nents o f the Ag re e m ent b elie ve
tha t, w itho ut e le c to ra l le g itim a c y, Se rb ia
w o uld b e una b le to c lo se its institutio ns
a nd tra nsfe r its fina nc ia l sup p o rt to
Ko so vo Se rb s thro ug h the newly fo rme d
Asso c ia tio n, a s p la nne d . The ne w
institutio ns
w o uld
the n
eventua lly
At the m eeting held o n 16 Aug ust the Assem b ly
d ec la re d tha t the m unic ip a l elec tio ns w e re
una c c e p ta b le b ec a use they viola te b oth the
c o nstitutio n o f Se rb ia a nd the UNSC re solution 1244.
6

c o lla p se . In the me a ntim e , the y ho p e

g lo b a l p o we r shifts c o uld b ring a m o re
a usp ic io us re so lutio n o f the situa tio n in
Ko so vo s no rth. In the ir vie w , a c o ld
p e a c e m ust le a d to a ne w d ia lo g ue
b e tw ee n the m a nd Prishtina fo r e ithe r
p a rtitio n
or
at
le a st
full-fle d g e d
a uto no m y fo r the no rth.
It is d iffic ult fo r the Se rb s fro m no rthe rn
Ko so vo to a c c e p t the tra nsitio n, fo r the y
live d rela tively well d uring the 14 ye a rs o f
p o litic a l lim b o , w ith sta te sa la rie s c o m ing
fro m b o th c a p ita ls. Pe o p le in no rthe rn
Ko so vo a re c onc e rne d tha t e ssentia l
se rvic e s c o uld b e c ut a s they a b a nd o n
o ne syste m fo r the o the r. A ro ug h
e stim a te ind ic a te s tha t a ro und 85% o f a ll
inc o m e in the no rth d e p e nd s o n the
p ub lic se c to r, a b o ut thre e-q ua rte rs o f
w hic h is fro m Se rb ia a nd a q ua rte r fro m
Ko so vo . The p la nne d c lo sure of the
Se rb ia -fina nc e d institutio ns a nd the ir
re inte g ra tio n
into
Ko so vo s
leg a l
fra m e w o rk w ill re sult in sig nific a ntly lo we r
sa la rie s a nd jo b s (fo r e xa m p le in lo c a l
a d m inistra tio n a nd ho sp ita ls).
Le ft w ith fe w a llie s, no rthe rn Se rb s ha ve
d e velo p e d a sie g e m e nta lity w hic h ha s
a c tive ly nurture d the fe a r o f a sile nt
e xo d us , furthe r w o rse ne d b y the
loo m ing
shut-d o wn
of
Belg ra d e s
institutio ns. Witho ut sta te -run institutio ns,
the fe a r is tha t lo c a l elite s (te a c he rs,
d o c to rs, jud g e s) w ill le a ve a nd the re st o f
the p o p ula tio n m a y fo llo w . The d isc o urse
o f the silent e xo d us m a y b e a n
instrum e nt o f p o litic a l p re ssure o r a sig n
o f d e sp e ra tio n. But in re a lity, a ny e xo d us
is m o re like ly to ha p p e n a s a re sult o f
la c k o f sa la rie s tha n the e m o tio na l p a in
o f b e ing p a rt of Ko so vo .

The re a l c ha lle ng e is tha t no rthe rn Se rb s

fa c e not only the fe a r o f a b a nd o nme nt
b y Se rb ia , b ut a lso a sud d e n tra nsitio n to
a free -m a rke t e c ono m y, whic h ha s b ee n
d e la ye d fo r p olitic a l re a so ns. Ap a rt fro m
sm ug g le rs a nd the p olitic a l c la ss, tho se
d e p e nd ent o n sta te sa la rie s m a y feel the
m a in im p a c t. While the well-c o nne c te d
sm ug g le rs m a y find w a ys to ta p into the
fre sh fund ing tha t w ill flo w to the no rth,
ta rg e te d so c ia l a ssista nc e p ro g ra m m e s
sho uld b e a mo ng the p rio ritie s to a ssist
o rd ina ry c itize ns strug g ling w ith the
sud d e n tra nsitio n.
Ve ry fe w Se rb s fro m the no rth e xp re ss
re a d ine ss to p a rtic ip a te in the ele c tio ns.
The
m a in
ling e ring
q ue stio n
is
c o nse q ue ntly ho w a c tive the b o yc o tt is
like ly to b e . While no rthe rn p olitic ia ns
ha ve em b ra c e d a p a ssive b o yc o tt,
se ve ra l inc id e nts, o ne o f the m d e a d ly,
he ra ld a c lim a te o f m o re a c tive
intim id a tio n tha t m a y re d uc e turno ut to
a tric kle o r c o uld sto p p olling a ltog e the r.7
In sp ite o f tho se w id ely sha re d c o nc e rns,
o p inio n p o lls sug g e st tha t o p p o sitio n to
the Brusse ls Ag re e m e nt m a y no t b e a s
una nim o us a s it se e m s. Ac c o rd ing to
p o lls c ond uc te d in June a nd July 2013,
the e xp e c te d turno ut is 17% in No rthe rn
Mitro vic a , 21% in Zub in Po to k, 24% in
Zve a n/ Zve a n
a nd
38%
in
8
Le p o sa vi / Le p o sa viq .
G ive n
tha t
Belg ra d e ha s c e rtifie d its jo int list in the
m e a ntim e , the turno ut is like ly to b e
hig he r, a s lo ng a s the se c urity a nd
p o litic a l
e nviro nm ent
does
no t
The killing o f a EULEX c ustom s o ffic e r from Lithua nia
w a s a m o ng a num b e r o f viole nt inc id e nts tha t
o c c urred in Sep tem b e r.
8 http :/ / m .m o nd o.rs/ c s/ a 599581/ Info/ Srb ija / Na -izb o rena -Koso vu-b i-iza slo-d o-38-od sto -g ra d ja na .htm l
7

d e te rio ra te . Ma ny Se rb s in the no rth m a y

a lso b e d rive n to vo te b y the na rra tive
tha t the Asso c ia tio n o f the Se rb
Munic ip a litie s is the ve hic le fo r Se rb ia s
c o ntinue d
p re se nc e
in
Ko so vo .
Ne ve rthele ss, e ve n if a la rg e r-tha ne xp e c te d p e rc e nta g e o f the p o p ula tio n
c a st the ir b a llo t, m o st no rthe rn Se rb s w ill
b o yc o tt the ele c tio ns. G ive n the
c irc um sta nc e s, the EU a nd the re st o f the
inte rna tio na l c o m m unity is p ro b a b ly
w illing to a c c e p t a fa irly lo w turno ut a s a
suffic ie nt
le g a l b a sis to
e sta b lish
m unic ip a l g o ve rnm ent.

Asso c ia tio n. This is no t o nly a p olitic a l

d ile m m a jo ining re q uire s the b le ssing o f
m a yo rs w ho w ill lo se re a l c o m p e tenc e s
to this sup ra -m unic ip a l b o d y. Othe r Se rb m a jo rity m unic ip a litie s m a y no t b e a b le
to m uste r the two -third s o f the vo te in the
Asse m b ly re q uire d to jo in the Asso c ia tio n.
But g ive n tha t a ll a ssista nc e fro m Se rb ia is
like ly to c o me thro ug h the Asso c ia tio n,
sta ying a w a y m a y b e a d iffic ult c ho ic e .
In a d d itio n, so uthe rn Se rb s fe a r tha t the
c o nsta nt p olitic a l fo c us o n the no rth
sid e line s the ir m o re se rio us p ro b le m s,
w hic h the Asso c ia tio n m a y e xa c e rb a te .

The c a m p a ig n in no rthe rn Ko so vo is like ly

to
be
a
lo w -ke y a ffa ir w itho ut
e nthusia sm .
No rthe rn
m a yo ra l
c a nd id a te s a re unlike ly to fo c us o n
c o nc re te p ro je c ts, a nd m a y use so m b re
m e ssa g e s suc h a s w e ha d to d o this ,
w e w ill try to c ha ng e te rm s a s w e g o
a long a nd w e ha ve to live w ith this
le g a l fra m ew o rk, b ut w e w ill re sist a nd w ill
ne ve r a c c e p t ind e p e nd enc e . Suc h a
te p id c a m p a ig n e nviro nm ent is unlike ly
to b o o st sp irits a nd le a d to a hig h
turno ut, sinc e vo te rs e xp e c t visio na ry
le a d e rs w ho c a n p ro je c t o p tim ism into
the future .

Prio r to the Brusse ls Ag re e m ent, the Se rb

p o litic a l sc e ne in Ko so vo w a s e ffe c tive ly
d ivid e d into tw o c a m p s: the Be lg ra d e
Se rb s follo w ing Se rb ia s o ffic ia l p o sitio n
a nd Tha c i s Se rb s, a s the SLS a nd its
sup p o rte rs, w ho ha ve b ee n w illing to
w o rk w ith Ko so vo institutio ns, w e re o fte n
la b elle d b y the ir c ritic s. Altho ug h
Belg ra d e p ro p o se d the jo int list w ith the
a im o f unifying the Se rb ele c to ra te in
Ko so vo a ro und its p la tfo rm , in p ra c tic e it
ha s o nly le d to its furthe r fra g m enta tio n.
No w tw o mo re c a m p s a re e m e rg ing . The
third c a m p is no b o d y s Se rb s, c o a le sc ing
a ro und DSS a nd SRS, a s c o ntinua l sp o ile rs
o f the p e a c e p ro c e ss who e njo y lim ite d
b a c king . The fo urth c a m p e m e rg ing is
c o m p o se d o f a num b e r o f lo c a l
g ro up ing s, fo r virtua lly e ve ry m unic ip a lity
ha s a t le a st o ne Se rb lo c a l c ivic initia tive
w hic h sup p o rts inte g ra tio n, b ut se e s a n
inte re st in d ista nc ing the m selve s fro m
m a instre a m g ro up ing s.

The
situa tio n
bec omes
furthe r
c o m p lic a te d w he n so uthe rn Se rb s a re
fa c to re d into the e q ua tio n. While a ll Se rb
p a rtie s sho uld b e in p rinc ip le enthusia stic
a b o ut the Asso c ia tio n, the y m a y b e le ss
so g ive n Se rb ia s insiste nc e o f its full
c o ntrol. In the ir vie w , Se rb ia is no w
a d vo c a ting the sa m e p o lic y fo r w hic h it
ha d c ritic ise d the SLS in 2009 when it ha d
the c o ura g e to p a rtic ip a te in e le c tio ns,
then a g a inst Se rb ia s w ill. If the SLS w ins
se ve ra l m unic ip a litie s in the So uth, a s
e xp e c te d , it is unc le a r if it w ill jo in the

4. Four scenarios
G ive n the c o m p le xity a nd vola tility o f the
situa tio n in no rthe rn Ko so vo , it is c le a r
tha t the re is a w id e ra ng e o f p o ssib le
9

o utc o m e s b o th on 3 Nove m b e r a nd in its

a fte rm a th. Vo te r turno ut a sid e , w hic h
sc e na rio unfo ld s in the no rth w ill a lso b e
d e te rm ine d b y the d ism a ntling a nd
re inte g ra tio n of p a ra llel institutio ns,
e sp e c ia lly the p olic e a nd c o urts. Ta lks o n
b o th c o unts ha ve sta lle d w ith se rio us
d isa g re e m ents, a nd if the re is no suc c e ss
b y e a rly No ve m b e r, it c o uld ha ve se rio us
im p lic a tio ns. Se c urity o n ele c tio n d a y
c a n ha rd ly b e g ua ra ntee d if the c a ree rs
o f hund re d s o f se c urity o ffic ia ls a re in
q ue stio n. Sim ila rly, if jud g e s a re no t in
p la c e , it is unc le a r w ho w ill a d d re ss the
c o m p la ints a nd a p p e a ls tha t e me rg e a s
a re sult o f the ele c to ra l p ro c e ss.
On the b a sis o f o ur a na lysis, w e ha ve
d e velo p e d
fo ur d istinc t
sc e na rio s:
o p timistic , re a listic , p e ssimistic
a nd
d isa stro us. The sc e na rio p la nning is
inte nd e d to se rve a s a b a sis fo r a ll the
sta ke hold e rs to w o rk m o re e ffe c tive ly
to w a rd the ir m o st d e sire d o utc o m e s, b ut
a lso to c oo p e ra te to a vo id the m o re
c a la m ito us sc e na rio s. The sc e na rio s
sho uld no t b e see n a s a fo re c a st, b ut
ra the r a s a n a na lytic a l e xe rc ise . In re a lity,
ele me nts of d iffe rent sc e na rio s w ill
p ro b a b ly b e c o m b ine d in a fa shio n tha t
is im p o ssib le to p re d ic t a t the p re se nt
tim e . Mo re o ve r, the sc e na rio s a im to
help d e c isio n-m a ke rs to im a g ine the full
ho rizo n
of
the
p o ssib le
ele c to ra l
o utc o m e s a nd to help the m b e tte r
p re p a re fo r the a fte rm a th. The follow ing
se c tio n is, the re fo re , no t a n e xe rc ise in
futuro lo g y b ut a n inte rventio n into the
p re se nt.
1. The optimistic scena rio (hig hly unlike ly)

w ith
re p re se nta tio n
fro m
se ve ra l
g ro up ing s. The ele c to ra l p ro c e ss is se e n
a s la rg ely free , fa ir a nd tra nsp a re nt. The
o p p o nents und e rta ke a p a ssive b o yc o tt
o f the ele c tio ns, b ut d ue to the inte nsive
c a m p a ig n b y Belg ra d e , the ir c a m p a ig n
ring s hollo w . In this sc e na rio , the fe w
vio la tio ns o f the c o d e o f c o nd uc t a nd
p o lling p ro c e d ure s a re insuffic ie nt to risk
the integ rity o f the p ro c e ss. The lo c a l
a sse m b lie s o f the fo ur m unic ip a litie s
c o nvene a nd ele c t m a yo rs w ho a c c e p t
Prishtina a s the so urc e o f the ir le g a l
fra m e w o rk. G ive n the rela tively hig h
turno ut o f o the r g ro up ing s too , the
Belg ra d e-sp o nso re d jo int list is una b le to
fo rm a m irro r-im a g e e xe c utive a utho rity
c o m p o se d o f Se rb ia n Pro g re ssive Pa rty
(SNS) a nd So c ia list Pa rty o f Se rb ia (SPS)
c a d re o nly. A p lura listic m a jo rity ha s to
ne g o tia te
a c ro ss
se ve ra l
p olitic a l
g ro up ing s, e na b ling
the ne c e ssa ry
sta rting p o int fo r d e m o c ra tic d e lib e ra tio n
a nd p lura lism tha t, o ve r tim e , re le g a te s
e thno -p olitic s to a m a tte r o f se c ond a ry
p rio rity. The Asso c ia tio n o f Se rb ia n
Munic ip a litie s is e sta b lishe d , c o m p o se d
o f o the r g ro up ing s a s w e ll a nd
c o o p e ra te s c lo sely w ith Prishtina . Le ft
w itho ut
fina nc ia l
re so urc e s
a nd
le g itim a c y, the Inte rim Asse m b ly fa d e s
into irre leva nc e to g e the r w ith othe r
sp o ile rs. Ord ina ry Se rb s se e k to se c ure
the ir p ro sp e rity in the ne w e nviro nm e nt
a nd suc c e ssful ele c tio ns e nc o ura g e a ll
the sta ke hold e rs to m o ve the a g end a
fo rw a rd . The EU g a ins e no ug h c re d ib ility
to c o nc lud e a n ove ra rc hing a g re e me nt
b e tw ee n Belg ra d e a nd Prishtina to
m e d ia te in p o st-c o nflic t situa tio ns furthe r
a fie ld .

Mo re tha n 30% o f Se rb s in the no rth c a st

the ir b a llo t to ele c t m unic ip a l a sse m b lie s,
10

2. The disa strous scena rio (unlike ly b ut

p o ssib le )
Polling sta tio ns c lo se d ue to vio le nt
inc id e nts w hic h p ro m p t the OSCE to
w ithd ra w its sta ff. A va ria tio n o f the sa m e
sc e na rio c a n a lso unfold if turno ut is
b e lo w 5%. An a c tive b o yc o tt a nd
intim id a tio n c re a te a c lim a te o f fe a r
suffic ie ntly e ffe c tive to d e te r m o st Se rb s
fro m vo ting . In sho rt, ele c tio ns a re la rg ely
c o nte ste d o r se en a s a she e r fa ilure .
This is the sc e na rio tha t is in d ire nee d o f
the se e m ing ly m issing Pla n B. If it unfold s,
the ne w m unic ip a l institutio ns in no rthe rn
Ko so vo w ill no t b e e sta b lishe d , c re a ting
a d a ng e ro us p olitic a l (a nd le g a l)
va c uum . Prishtina w o uld find it d iffic ult to
a p p o int p ro visio na l struc ture s, a nd if it
w e re to d o so , the y w o uld nee d to b e
sup p o rte d b y Belg ra d e (it w o uld b e
Belg ra d e d e fa c to a p p o inting the m
a nyw a y, whic h re turns no rthe rn Ko so vo
b a c k to the p re -ele c tio n sta tus q uo ).
Whe the r the so lutio n is ne g o tia te d o r
sim p ly im p o se d , it w o uld no t b e
im p le m enta b le w itho ut the use o f
c o e rc ive fo rc e , w hic h KFOR is re luc ta nt
to d e p lo y. This, in turn w o uld mo b ilise
no rthe rn Se rb s b a c k to the b a rric a d e s,
m a inta in
lo w -tensio n
c o nflic t
a nd
p o te ntia lly le a d to a ne w c yc le o f
vio lenc e . The b a rric a d e o n the m a in
b rid g e in Mitro vic a is unlike ly to b e
re m o ve d , fo re g o ing the c ha nc e to
re intro d uc e
so m e
no rm a lity.
The
e xp lo sive situa tio n in no rthe rn Ko so vo
m ig ht le a d to the fa ll o f the G o ve rnme nt
in Be lg ra d e follo we d b y ne w ele c tio ns,
sta le m a te in Se rb ia s EU a c c e ssio n
p ro c e ss a nd
inte rim
d e a d lo c k in
Belg ra d e-Prishtina ne g o tia tio ns.

3. The pessimistic scena rio (q uite like ly)

Turno ut is le ss tha n 15%, b ut hig he r tha n
5% d ue to intim id a tio n a nd se c urity
inc id e nts. De sp ite low turno ut, lo c a l
struc ture s a re e sta b lishe d , a ltho ug h
p ro b a b ly o f a te m p o ra ry na ture . The
Alb a nia n
m ino rity
in
the
no rth
c o m m a nd s a d isp ro p o rtio na te ly la rg e
sha re in the lo c a l a sse m b lie s. Turno ut
a m o ng d isp la c e d Se rb s is susp ic io usly
hig h: Prishtina re je c ts a sig nific a nt
num b e r o f b y-m a il b a llo ts, a nd Belg ra d e
c a lls fo r a no the r ro und of te c hnic a l
d isc ussio ns in Brusse ls. The re p re se nta tive s
o f the Inte rim Asse m b ly feel enc o ura g e d
to ste p up the ir a c tive o p p o sitio n to the
Brusse ls
Ag re e m e nt,
c re a ting
an
e nviro nme nt w he re se c urity inc id e nts
re c e ive ind ire c t p o litic a l c o ve r. No rthe rn
Ko so vo end s up ha ving tw o p a ra llel
struc ture s, o ne w ho se le g itim a c y is
c ha lle ng e d b y the lo c a l p o p ula tio n a nd
the o the r who se le g itim a c y is c ha lleng e d
b y e ve ryb o d y else no t to o d issim ila r
fro m the c urrent situa tio n. This w o uld
c e m e nt
c urrent
unc e rta intie s,
m a inta ining
a nd
p o te ntia lly
e ve n
inc re a sing inte r-e thnic tensio n in the
no rth. The re je c tio nist a ttitud e a nd the
la c k of le g itim a te a nd leg a l le a d e rs in
no rthe rn Ko so vo wo uld re d uc e the
sp a c e fo r furthe r d ia lo g ue b etw ee n
Belg ra d e a nd Prishtina .
4. The rea listic scena rio (m o st like ly)
Turno ut is lo w a t b e tw ee n 15 a nd 30%,
b ut
e no ug h
to
me et
the
lo w
e xp e c ta tio ns o f m inim um le g itim a c y. The
jo int list w ins the m a jo rity o f vo te s, w hic h
re d uc e s the p re senc e o f a n o p p o sitio n
tha t c o uld p ro mo te g oo d g o ve rna nc e
a nd ne c e ssa ry c he c ks a nd b a la nc e s.
11

The le g isla tive a nd e xe c utive struc ture s

o f the fo ur m unic ip a litie s in the no rth
re fle c t the p a rty struc ture o f the Se rb ia n
g o ve rnme nt c o ntinuing the rheto ric tha t
the y w ill d efend Se rb ia s p re se nc e in
Ko so vo .
The ir
d o m ina nc e
c ho ke s
d e m o c ra tic d e lib e ra tio n a nd stifle s the
d e velo p me nt o f p lura list d e m o c ra c y in
the m unic ip a litie s a nd in the Asso c ia tio n.
On a stra te g ic le vel, the ne wly
e sta b lishe d lo c a l a sse m b lie s d o m ina te d
b y the jo int-list re p re se nta tive s in no rthe rn
Ko so vo m ig ht feel the ne e d to c om p e te
fo r p a trio tic c re d e ntia ls a nd a d o p t a n
e ven m o re c o m b a tive sta nc e to w a rd s
Prishtina tha n Be lg ra d e . While Se rb ia
c o ntinue s to ta lk to Prishtina , the no rthe rn
m a yo rs he sita te , w hic h up ho ld s fe a rs o f a
tw o -p rong e d stra te g y, e sp e c ia lly if
se rio us ha g g ling c ontinue s to follo w the
im p le m enta tio n
of
the
Brusse ls
Ag re e m e nt. The Asso c ia tio n a c c e p ts its
ro le w ithin Prishtina s leg a l fra me w o rk,
b ut a lso e njo ys le g a l sta tus in Se rb ia s
syste m , e ffe c tively tre a te d a s a Se rb ia n
sta te institutio n to o .
The m a jo r risk in this sc e na rio is tha t the
Ko so vo-Alb a nia n m a jo rity se e s the
d e velo p me nts a s a m a jo r thre a t to the
ne w sta te s func tio na lity. The se m ire je c tio nist a ttitud e o f the no rthe rn Se rb s
d e m o nstra te s Belg ra d e s p o we rle ssne ss
a nd c o uld inc re a se c a lls fo r up to thre e
p a ra llel d ia lo g ue p ro c e sse s: (a ) no rthe rn
m unic ip a litie s w ith Ko so vo institutio ns, (b )
a tri-p a rtite d ia lo g ue fo r the Asso c ia tio n,
a nd (c ) o n furthe r no rm a lisa tio n b e tw ee n
Prishtina a nd Be lg ra d e .

12

Conclusions
Ne ithe r the EU no r the b ro a d e r
inte rna tio na l c o m m unity se e m to b e
p re p a re d fo r the p o ssib ility o f fa ile d
ele c tio ns in no rthe rn Ko so vo , o r fo r
uninte nd e d o utc o m e s in the ir a fte rm a th.
The
e xiste nc e o f a n o ve ra rc hing
inte rna tio na l c o nsensus m a y d e te r
re je c tio nist sp o ile rs, b ut the im p o te nc e o f
the inte rna tio na l sta kehold e rs vis- -vis
d e a d ly a tta c ks m a y te st w he the r the y
a re c a p a b le o f d isc ip lining w rong d oe rs.
Ind ee d , the see ming a b senc e o f a b a c kup p la n m a y furthe r e nc o ura g e sp o ile rs.
G ive n the c ha lle ng e s, it is vita l tha t the re
b e so m e se rio us c o nting e nc y p la nning
b y the EU in a d va nc e o f 3 No vem b e r o n
ho w to p ut thing s b a c k o n tra c k in c a se
o f d e ra ilm ent. As w e d e sc rib e a b o ve ,
so m e d e ra ilm ent is to b e a ntic ip a te d
a nd c a nno t b e p e rc e ive d a s a n
une xp e c te d o utc o me .
One o f the ind ic a to rs o f suc c e ssful
ele c tio ns is the d e ve lo p me nt of the
Asso c ia tion of Se rb ia n Munic ip a litie s. In
va ria tio ns o f o ur re a listic sc e na rio , a
p o w e rful Asso c ia tio n und e r Belg ra d e s
he a vy
c ontrol
may
sp ur
e thnic
m o b ilisa tio n a m o ng Ko so vo Alb a nia ns,
le a d ing to b ro a d c o a litio ns tha t le a ve
e thnic
Se rb s
a nd
na tio na list
Ve t ve nd o sje in the o p p o sitio n (in m ixe d
so uthe rn m unic ip a litie s a nd p o te ntia lly in
the ne xt na tio na l p a rlia m e nt). This c o uld
ha ve ha rmful effe c ts no t only o n inte re thnic re la tio ns a c ro ss Ko so vo , b ut a lso
o n the few c he c ks a nd b a la nc e s on the
Prishtina g o ve rnme nt a lre a d y in p la c e .

d e te rio ra tio n c o uld d rive so uthe rn Se rb s

to m ove to the no rth, w hic h so m e
c o nsp ira c y the o rie s a rg ue is Be lg ra d e s
re a l p la n. Effe c tively a b a nd oning the
so uth c o uld p ro vid e the b a sis fo r a
re new e d p ush to p a rtitio n the no rth, o r a t
le a st c e m ent te rrito ria l a uto no m y fo r the
fo ur no rthe rn m unic ip a litie s.
The m o me nto us c ha ng e ta king p la c e in
the no rth, a d e fa c to tra nsfe r o f
so ve re ig nty a fte r 14 ye a rs, is no e a sy fe a t
a nd sho uld b e g ra d ua l. The future of the
Ko so vo Se rb c o m m unity in the no rth is
p rim a rily a t sta ke a nd it is im p o rta nt to
re c o g nise a nd m a na g e the a nxie ty this
b ring s. Ele c tio ns w ill b ring the no rthe rn
Se rb s w ithin Ko so vo s fo ld in te rm s o f
le g a l so ve re ig nty, b ut it w ill a lso insula te
the m w ith the kind o f p ro te c tio n tha t fe w
c o m m unitie s o f this size e njo y e lse w he re .
Fo r Prishtina , it w ill b e e sse ntia l no t to
m a ke ta c tic a l m ista ke s tha t c o uld instill
fe a r a nd le a d to ne e d le ss no rthe rn Se rb
m ig ra tio n. The EU sho uld e nsure tha t b o th
Prishtina
a nd
Be lg ra d e
b eha ve
re sp o nsib ly in the p re- a nd p o st-e le c tio n
p e rio d .
The m unic ip a l ele c tio ns a re a n im p o rta nt
ste p in the inte g ra tio n o f no rthe rn Se rb s
into Ko so vo s le g a l syste m b ut they a re
the b e g inning o f the p ro c e ss, no t the
e nd . Ove rse e ing the ele c tio ns, w ill no t b e
the la st b a la nc ing a c t tha t the EU w ill
nee d to und e rta ke to se e the p ro c e ss
thro ug h to the e nd .

Ano the r ind ic a to r o f suc c e ssful ele c tio ns

is the im p rove me nt/ d e te rio ra tio n o f the
inte r-e thnic c lim a te in Ko so vo . A se rio us
13

 Central European Policy Institute - A think-tank by the Slovak Atlantic Commission - October 8, 2013
This report was published with the support of the International Visegrad Fund.

CENTRAL EUROPEAN POLICY INSTITUTE

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