Professional Documents
Culture Documents
R e su l ts /B r ief ing N o t e
1 June 2010
MARKET DATELINE
♦ 1st interim DPS of 8 sen. Maxis declared a first interim single-tier DPS of
8 sen, which translates to a net yield of 1.5% and a payout ratio of FBM KLCI
108.2% based on 1Q profit. The entitlement for the 1st interim dividend is
15 Jun ’10 while payment date is 18 Jun ’10.
Maxis
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Briefing Highlights
♦ Revenue growth projection of high single-digit maintained. Notwithstanding the slow start to the year,
management remained positive that revenue will grow at high single-digit, supported by: 1) subscriber growth
stemming from rising multiple-sims usage, ample growth potential in the underserved areas (in particular, the East
Coast and East Malaysia) and favourable demographic structure; and 2) stronger contribution from non-voice
revenue (both broadband and advanced data services). Revenue growth aside, management also appeared to be
confident that EBITDA margins would be maintained above the 50% mark and this is mainly on the back of ongoing
cost-control measures and strong data revenue growth ahead, which would help mitigate ongoing pressures on
voice revenue. In addition, management believes ARPUs would likely stabilise in the next few months ahead.
♦ Dividend. Maxis declared a first interim single-tier DPS of 8 sen, which translates to a net yield of 1.5% and a
payout ratio of 108.2%, based on 1Q profit. The entitlement for the 1st interim dividend is 15 Jun ’10 while payment
date is 18 Jun ’10. Management provided further clarity on its dividends and have committed to paying a total
interim net DPS of 32 sen (interim DPS of 8 sen/quarter), plus a final net DPS to be determined later (FY09: 3 sen,
net) given its stable EBITDA margin (which continued to remain above the 50% mark) and strong balance sheet
(annualised net debt/EBITDA of 1.1x that is well below its threshold of 1.75-2.0x). This implies a net payout ratio of
96.4% (excluding final DPS) and well above our projected FY10-12 net DPS of 24.9-29.4 sen (based on 75%
payout ratio). Consequently, we are now raising our FY12/10-12 DPS forecasts by 19-40.6% to 35 sen p.a., which
translates to a payout ratio of 105.4%/96.6%/ 89.2% for FY10/11/12 respectively. Despite the upward reivisons,
Maxis’s net debt/EBITDA is projected to remain at a low 0.8x, 0.7x and 0.5x for FY12/10-12, well below its
threshold of 1.75-2.0x. This suggests that there could still be further upside potential to dividends.
♦ iPhone sales went up despite seeing competition from Digi. Ready to bring in iPad. Digi’s move to offer
iPhone packages since end-Mar has helped Maxis in driving iPhone sales and management attributed this to: 1) the
concerted efforts by both telco players in marketing iPhones; and (2) the rising applications for iPhones.
Management said it is now ready to distribute the iPad and it will be the first micro sim-card developer for the iPad.
♦ Capex. YTD, Maxis incurred capex of RM135m, comprising the roll-out of: (1) 313 2G sites; (2) 197 3G sites; and
(3) 366 HSPA sites. More than 95% of the 3G sites are HSPA-ready as at 31 Mar 10. Management guided that
capex will accelerate in the coming quarters (and part of the capex will go to the initial expansion of FTTH and other
last mile fixed access) but kept to its total capex guidance of RM1.4bn for FY10.
♦ Capital management. Finally, management reiterated that they are prepared to gear up the balance sheet in
order to achieve a more optimal capital structure, but no details were provided as to timing. We see the better-
than-expected dividend announcement as a reaffirmation of management’s commitment. We project a net
debt/EBITDA of 0.7x by end-2010, which leaves considerable room for capital management potential given that
management would still be comfortable with a net debt/EBITDA of 1.75-2x.
Risks
♦ Risks to our view. The risks include: 1) weaker-than-expected net adds; 2) execution (e.g. network upgrades and
expansion); and 3) all-out price war.
Forecasts
♦ Earnings forecasts. Apart from the upward revisions to our FY12/10-12 DPS projections, our earnings forecasts
are unchanged.
♦ Outperform call reiterated. No change in our DCF-derived fair value (WACC=8.4%, TG=1.5%) RM6.20 and our
Outperform recommendation on the stock.
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Margins (%)
EBITDA 47.6 50.0 50.3
EBIT 35.1 37.0 37.9
Pretax 35.0 31.4 35.5
ETR 26.6 27.6 27.8
Net profit 25.7 22.7 25.7
Net profit 16.4 26.2 25.7
Maxis did not provide the corresponding 4Q08 proforma results in their results announcement.
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ARPU (RM)
- postpaid 102.3 107.0 102.0 (4.7) (0.3)
- prepaid 42.1 40.0 37.0 (7.5) (12.1)
- broadband 96.6 85.0 69.0 (18.8) (28.6)
QoQ drop due to: 1) the launch of free 2-month subscription
promotional packages in the previous quarter; and 2) Lower
take up rate for packages with higher subscription fees.
- Blended 54.3 55.0 52.0 (5.5) (4.2)
AMPU (mins)
- postpaid 365 377 358 (5.0) (2.0)
Declined qoq on seasonal factors
- prepaid 111 124 122 (1.6) 9.9
As above.
- Blended 168 181 173 (4.4) 2.8
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Stock Ratings
Outperform = The stock return is expected to exceed the FBM KLCI benchmark by greater than five percentage points over the next 6-12 months.
Trading Buy = Short-term positive development on the stock that could lead to a re-rating in the share price and translate into an absolute return of 15% or more
over a period of three months, but fundamentals are not strong enough to warrant an Outperform call. It is generally for investors who are willing to take on higher
risks.
Market Perform = The stock return is expected to be in line with the FBM KLCI benchmark (+/- five percentage points) over the next 6-12 months.
Underperform = The stock return is expected to underperform the FBM KLCI benchmark by more than five percentage points over the next 6-12 months.
Industry/Sector Ratings
Overweight = Industry expected to outperform the FBM KLCI benchmark, weighted by market capitalisation, over the next 6-12 months.
Neutral = Industry expected to perform in line with the FBM KLCI benchmark, weighted by market capitalisation, over the next 6-12 months.
Underweight = Industry expected to underperform the FBM KLCI benchmark, weighted by market capitalisation, over the next 6-12 months.
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