Professional Documents
Culture Documents
INVESTMENT RESEARCH
Change in estimates
12 August 2016
Analyst: Philip Ngotho, CFA
Tel: +31 20 344 2943
Email: philip.ngotho@nl.abnamro.com
Analyst: Mutlu Gundogan
Tel: +31 20 628 1386
Email: mutlu.gundogan@nl.abnamro.com
01/01/2015
Neutral
Neutral
High
High
15
2.2
14
2.0
13
1.8
12
1.6
11
1.4
10
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
6
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
0.4
www.amg-nv.com
We expect that AMG will continue to benefit from higher metal prices. We
remain particularly bullish on ferrovanadium prices, which we expect to increase
on the back of the recent bankruptcy of Gulf Chemical, while the possible
announcement of preliminary anti-dumping rulings (due 6 September) could lift
vanadium prices even further.
while in the mid-term, the lithium project to be the earnings growth driver
We believe that the recently announced lithium spodumene project will prove to
be extremely value-accretive. Using the current spot price of USD 450/t, we
estimate that the project will yield a ROCE of around 44%, while it adds
EUR 2.9/share to our DCF valuation. Note that if we were to apply Roskills
price forecast in our valuation (mid-term price of USD 600/t) our DCF valuation
would increase by another EUR 2.0/share.
Valuation
We find the stock attractively valued, as on our 2017e numbers, AMG trades at a
5.1x EV/EBITDA, which is a 27% discount to its peers (7.0x).
Year to December
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
2018e
1,093.9
85.7
21.9
21.9
977.1
75.6
11.1
11.1
975.7
99.7
47.3
47.3
995.3
107.2
47.8
47.8
1,060.2
124.5
61.3
61.3
7.8
10.6
96.5
7.7
10.6
5.3
10.2
16.9
3.5
10.8
16.1
4.3
11.7
18.9
(10.7)
0.80
0.80
0.00
0.39
0.39
0.20
1.67
1.67
0.29
1.69
1.69
0.33
2.17
2.17
0.44
% change sales
% change EPS (excl. extr. & amort.)
(5.6)
ns
(10.7)
(50.8)
(0.1)
327.3
2.0
0.9
6.5
28.4
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
P/E (excl. extr. & amort.)
P/E
PE/growth (excl. extr.)
Free cash flow yield (%)
0.38
4.9
11.8
11.8
0.1
28.7
0.39
5.0
22.1
22.1
0.0
21.4
0.55
5.4
9.3
9.3
0.2
4.8
0.55
5.1
9.3
9.3
0.1
1.5
0.48
4.1
7.2
7.2
0.5
10.7
Sales (USD m)
EBITDA (USD m)
Net profit excl. extr. & amort. (USD m)
Net profit (USD m)
1.
Last week (4 August), AMG reported another set of strong results. 2Q16
revenues came in at USD 248m, 3% ahead of our estimate of USD 241m.
EBITDA were USD 26m, including a USD 3.6m gain due to reversal of
inventory write-downs and USD 3.2m additional expenses as a result of AMGs
Performance Share Unit (PSU) plans. Clean EBITDA amounted to USD 25.6m,
16% ahead of our forecast of USD 22.1m.
Cash flow generation was good despite the net debt number (USD 6.2m)
missing our estimate of a USD 2m net cash position. The miss was mainly due
to the company making voluntary payments to its US pension plan for a total of
USD 20.6m. Excluding this payment, the company would have reported a net
cash position of USD 14m. Although the strong cash flow generation was not
reflected in the debt position, we note that, from a valuation perspective, the
impact still remains positive, as we have lowered the unfunded status in our
valuation by some USD 20m (some EUR 0.6/share).
AMG announced an interim dividend of EUR 0.13/share, which was above our
forecast of EUR 0.10. Furthermore, AMG increased its guidance, expecting
EBITDA to improve versus FY15 (USD 76m), while previous guidance was for
a similar yoy result.
Details:
For the lithium phase I project, AMG has had discussions on offtake
agreements with clients. The company is still deciding on the product mix for
its plant and therefore cannot yet finalise an agreement. AMG continues to
target a portfolio of long-term contracts.
CEO Dr Schimmelbusch gave some guidance on the lithium phase II project.
According to him, the cash cost will likely be between USD 4,000/t and
USD 5,000/t. Site location of the lithium chemical plant will likely be in the
US or Germany, and capital costs will be on the order of USD 200m.
AMG does not have any strong ambitions on the M&A side, as its internal
organic growth projects are deemed to be much more value accretive.
AMG has not yet formulated an official dividend policy. For now, it targets a
dividend yield of 2.5% and the CEO notes that he does not want to commit to
too high a dividend, given the capex requirements for the lithium projects.
2.
On 20 July, AMG announced its plan to build a USD 50m metals processing
plant for the production of lithium spodumene (concentrate) as a by-product
from its Mibra tantalum mine operations in Brazil.
We believe that this project will prove to be extremely value-accretive given the
project features and the demand prospects for lithium. AMG estimates that it
will be able to produce lithium spodumene at a cost of USD 206/t (including
depreciation and port transportation costs). Based on the USD 450/t spot price
quoted by Roskill (market intelligence agency), we estimate that AMG can
generate an annual EBIT of some USD 22m and EBITDA of USD 27m once the
plant is fully ramped-up. This would correspond to a ROCE of around 44%.
Figure 1: Price forecasts for lithium spodumene by Roskill
We do note that the lithium market is not very liquid and price forming remains
relatively opaque. As an example, Metal Bulletin currently reports a spot price of
USD 765/t (CIF) for lithium spodumene (7.5% grade) sold into Europe.
Assuming transportation costs of some USD 100/t, we estimate that the FOB
price would be some USD 665/t. Using this as a price assumption in our
calculations yields an EBIT of USD 41m, which corresponds to a ROCE of
83%.
In our current valuation, we have assumed a long-term spodumene price of USD
450/t, which, in our view, is conservative, especially given the strong lithium
demand prospects. Note that for every USD 100/t increase in the lithium
spodumene price our DCF valuation would increase by EUR 1.80/share.
As a potential second phase, AMG is exploring, through a pre-feasibility study,
the possibility of construction of a downstream conversion plant of lithium
concentrate into lithium carbonate. The pre-feasibility study is expected to be
completed in 4Q16, with a final investment decision to be taken in 2Q17. A
possible plant would have an annual production capacity of between 14kt and
20kt of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). CEO Dr Schimmelbusch indicated
during the 2Q16 analyst call that capital expenditure for such a plant would
likely be on the order of USD 200m.
2.1. Project specifics
The (phase 1) lithium processing plant will be built at the Mibra mine site,
which is an already operational tantalum mine in the Brazilian state of Minas
Gerais. The raw material feedstock will come from the lithium deposits in
already existing tailings, as well as incremental lithium-bearing tailings
generated via the ongoing tantalum production.
The plants initial production capacity will be some 90kt of lithium spodumene,
with the option to expand it to 140kt. Production is expected to commence in
1Q18 and the capital expenditure is estimated at USD 50m. We note that AMGs
production guidance assumes a 67% recovery rate of the lithium contained in the
ore (see also the mineral resources overview in Figure 4). In comparison to peers
such as Orocobre and Pilbara Minerals, which assume 75% recovery rates, we
find this a relatively conservative assumption. As such, we believe there could
be upside to the production figure. In our estimates, however, we follow the
companys guidance.
Figure 2: AMG lithium project timeline
2010-12
Spodumene
concentration
processing route
development
Mineralogical
characterization
on tailings from
Ta2O5 plant
Laboratorial
scale flotation
tests
Pilot plant
operation
Industrial
production
scoping study
2013-14
Sample
production of
lithium
concentrate for
glass / ceramic
industry
Updated 43-101
compliant
resource
statement life
of mine
extended
2015
Lithium
concentrate
(spodumene)
plant studies
completed 4Q15
by Outotec
Conceptual
study
Pre-feasibility
study
2016
Spodumene
plant basic
engineering
completed July
2016 by Outotec
AMG
Supervisory
Board approval
July 19th, 2016
Spodumen
plant
construction to
commence
3Q16
Resource
expansion
drilling
campaign to
start 3Q16
2017
Updated 43-101
compliant
resource
statement to be
completed
Spodumene
plant
construction to
be completed
4Q17
2018-20
Spodumene
plant to be at
full capacity in
3Q18
AMG believes that the new plant will be one of the lowest-cost producers of
lithium ore spodumene, with an estimated operating cost of USD 127/t. AMG is
able to achieve such a low cost base as it will be using the existing mining
infrastructure of the Mibra mine. Furthermore, ore extraction and crushing costs
are already absorbed by the current tantalum operation, as the lithium is being
extracted from the tailings and the residues from the tantalum mining operations.
Figure 3: Estimated operating costs AMGs spodumene plant
Mineral resources
The most recent mineral resources statement for the Mibra mine dates from
2013, and states that AMG's Mibra mine has total resources of 19.4mt, of
which14.7mt is classified as measured and indicated resources containing
tantalum, niobium, tin and lithium. AMG estimates that the current life of the
mineral resource is approximately 18 years, based on current production levels.
AMG is conducting further exploration work at the mine and expects to update
its resource statement in 1H17, with the objective to upgrade existing mineral
resources from inferred to indicated and/or indicated to measured. With this, the
life of mine is also expected to be extended.
Figure 4: Mineral resources
Source (in kt)
Ore/Tailing (measured
+ indicated + inferred)
% Li2O grade
Li20 contained
in ore
LCE contained
in ore
Li20 contained
in spodumene
Spodumene
19,360
146.4
361.0
90.7
1463.6
3,215
15.5
38.3
9.6
155.2
130.8
322.7
81.1
1,308.5
20.7
51.1
13.9
223.7
151.5
373.8
95.0
1,532.2
16,145
0.81%
2,070
1.00%
18,216
750
1.15%
18,966
8.6
5.8
5.8
93.206
160.1
379.6
100.8
1,625.4
Batteries
35%
Ceramics and
glass
32%
Air treatment
5%
Lubricating
greases
9%
Source: USGS
Other uses
9%
Lithium is increasingly being referred to as the new oil, due to its common usage
in rechargeable batteries. Lithium-ion is lighter, more efficient, and more
durable than many other competing technologies. This makes it a desirable
choice for energy storage, particularly in vehicles and consumer electronics,
where weight and heavy usage are significant factors. Evidently, lithium
consumption for batteries has increased significantly in recent years.
Figure 6: Energy densities for various battery chemistries
Lithium demand has grown strongly over the last few years and market
intelligence agency Roskill expects this strong growth to continue in the coming
10 years, particularly in the market of rechargeable batteries.
Figure 8: Historical and project demand for lithium by first use (in tonnes of LCE)
We believe that the targets set by the Paris Declaration provide a good indication
of the future growth potential of EVs. As part of the Paris Declaration on
Climate, governments agreed to set a combined target to have at least 100m EVs
on the road by 2030. The 2C Scenario (2DS) the International Energy Agency
(IEA) has as a target is for 140m EVs by 2030 and nearly 900m by 2050.
Figure 10: Scenarios of projected global EV stock
Meeting the 2030 target of the IEA 2DS implies that the global stock of electric
cars should maintain annual growth rates above 23% until 2025 and in the range
of 6-9% until 2030. We believe that these growth rates provide strong
fundamentals for future lithium demand.
2.2.2. Lithium supply
Figure 11: 2015 lithium production levels and reserves (in 000t)
Country
Production
Reserves
Australia
13,400
1,500,000
Chile
11,700
7,500,000
Argentina
3,800
2,000,000
China
2,200
3,200,000
Zimbabwe
900
23,000
Portugal
300
60,000
Brazil
160
48,000
United States
Total
undisclosed
38,000
32,460
14,369,000
3.
1Q16a
2Q16a
3Q16e
4Q16e
2016e
2017e
2018e
Critical Materials
757
177
182
180
180
718
733
747
Engineering
220
61
67
65
65
258
263
268
Total
977
237
248
245
245
976
995
1,015
60.8
16.5
20.5
20.6
20.6
78.2
83.3
100.1
8%
9%
11%
11%
11%
11%
11%
13%
14.8
4.6
5.6
5.7
5.7
21.5
24.0
24.4
7%
8%
8%
9%
9%
8%
9%
9%
75.6
21.2
26.0
26.3
26.3
99.7
107.2
124.5
8%
9%
10%
11%
11%
10%
11%
12%
Net income
9.9
12.3
12.8
10.9
10.9
47.0
47.4
60.9
EPS (USD)
0.35
0.43
0.45
0.39
0.39
1.66
1.67
2.15
Revenues
EBITDA
Processing
Margin
Engineering
Margin
Total
Margin
The changes to our estimates are shown in the table below. Our higher estimates
are mainly driven by increased earnings estimates for AMGs Engineering
division.
Figure 14: Changes to our estimates (USDm)
FY16e
Old
Sales
960
Change
EBITDA
90.9
Change
Source: ABN AMRO Equity Research
976
980
99.7
33.0
47.0
103.7
1.66
42.2%
995
107.2
3.4%
36.2
42.2%
1.2
New
1.6%
9.8%
Change
EPS (USD)
Old
1.6%
Change
Net income
FY17e
New
47.4
30.8%
1.3
1.67
30.8%
4.
Valuation
107
EBITDA multiple
6.6x
Enterprise value
707
Less: Unfunded status (after-tax and after USD 20m top-up payment)
77
Less: Minorities
24
20
(3)
12
Equity Value
589
28.3
20.8
1.11
18.8
The table below summarises our DCF valuation. We have increased our WACC
to 8.7% from 8.3% to reflect the inherent execution risk of the lithium project.
Figure 16: DCF valuation
Amounts in USDm (unless otherwise stated)
2016e
2017e
2018e
2019e
2020e
2021e
2022e
Revenues
976
995
1,060
1,103
1,128
1,128
1,128
Underlying EBITDA
100
107
125
131
134
133
133
(4)
(5)
(12)
(6)
(4)
Taxes paid
(9)
(12)
(15)
(17)
(18)
(18)
(18)
(40)
(73)
(42)
(42)
(42)
(42)
(42)
46
18
56
66
71
74
74
847
Capex
FCF
Discount factor
Terminal
0.92
0.85
0.78
0.72
0.66
0.61
0.56
0.56
Discounted FCF
42
15
43
47
47
45
41
473
Enterprise value
753
97
Less: Minorities
24
20
(1)
12
602
28
21.28
1.11
19.2
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
2018e
Net sales
916.3
990.5
1,351.3
1,215.6
1,158.4
1,093.9
977.1
975.7
995.3
1,060.2
Other income
6.0
1.1
8.8
1.2
2.1
2.1
0.9
2.4
(7.8)
(42.8)
Personnel costs
(170.9)
(175.5)
(214.5)
(217.4)
(217.0)
(222.5)
(227.6)
(227.6)
(229.8)
(232.1)
(746.6)
(747.8)
(1,046.2)
(915.2)
(870.9)
(787.7)
(674.8)
(650.8)
(650.4)
(660.7)
4.8
68.3
99.4
84.3
72.6
85.7
75.6
99.7
107.2
124.5
Depreciation
(23.8)
(25.0)
(29.6)
(43.5)
(33.3)
(33.2)
(38.3)
(38.8)
(37.0)
(40.0)
EBITA
(19.0)
43.3
69.8
40.8
39.3
52.5
37.3
60.9
70.2
84.5
0.0
0.0
(0.2)
(6.0)
(65.5)
(11.9)
(1.2)
2.1
(4.0)
(4.0)
EBITDA
Reported provisions
Amortisation
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
EBIT
(19.0)
43.3
69.5
34.8
(26.2)
40.6
36.2
63.0
66.2
80.5
Net financials
(16.5)
(10.5)
(22.3)
(25.8)
(21.1)
(19.5)
(8.2)
(8.9)
(7.0)
(4.5)
(35.5)
32.8
47.3
9.0
(47.3)
21.1
27.9
54.1
59.2
76.1
Taxes
(16.7)
(11.2)
(18.7)
(10.8)
4.4
1.0
(18.7)
(8.6)
(11.8)
(15.2)
(32.0)
(19.4)
(20.3)
2.4
(2.1)
(0.4)
0.6
1.4
0.0
0.0
22.6
0.3
(3.1)
2.3
3.5
0.3
1.2
0.4
0.4
0.5
(61.6)
2.4
5.2
2.8
(41.5)
21.9
11.1
47.3
47.8
61.3
Extraordinary items
(14.0)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(75.6)
2.4
5.2
2.8
(41.5)
21.9
11.1
47.3
47.8
61.3
% change in Sales
(39.6)
8.1
36.4
(10.0)
(4.7)
(5.6)
(10.7)
(0.1)
2.0
6.5
% change in EBITDA
(95.8)
1,332.3
45.6
(15.2)
(13.8)
18.1
(11.8)
31.9
7.5
16.1
% change in EBITA
ns
ns
61.3
(41.6)
(3.7)
33.7
(28.9)
63.2
15.3
20.4
% change in PBT
ns
ns
44.3
(81.0)
ns
ns
32.5
93.6
9.5
28.4
ns
ns
114.0
(44.9)
ns
ns
(49.4)
327.3
0.9
28.4
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
2018e
124.5
Minorities
4.8
68.3
99.4
84.3
72.6
85.7
75.6
99.7
107.2
64.1
20.0
14.5
2.6
(12.9)
(6.2)
(4.3)
(17.4)
(4.0)
(4.0)
(48.4)
(40.6)
(22.6)
9.9
40.2
39.0
21.6
(4.3)
(4.9)
(11.5)
20.4
47.7
91.3
96.8
99.9
118.5
92.8
78.1
98.4
109.0
Taxes paid
(9.7)
(35.4)
(34.2)
(12.6)
(12.1)
(6.3)
(5.7)
(9.1)
(11.8)
(15.2)
Capex
(25.5)
(33.0)
(51.9)
(48.1)
(32.0)
(24.0)
(23.3)
(40.7)
(73.0)
(42.0)
(14.8)
(20.8)
5.2
36.1
55.7
88.3
63.9
28.2
13.5
51.8
(12.8)
(13.8)
(12.1)
(18.6)
(18.0)
(13.8)
(11.4)
(6.9)
(7.0)
(4.5)
Other
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Acquisitions
(28.9)
(20.2)
(29.5)
(0.2)
(4.0)
0.0
(1.2)
(6.0)
0.0
0.0
Divestments
0.1
(9.8)
0.6
0.3
3.2
0.8
(0.9)
1.0
0.0
0.0
Share issues/buybacks
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5.7
8.2
9.4
12.6
(32.7)
(5.5)
(1.9)
2.7
6.8
(9.1)
(2.1)
0.0
0.0
0.0
62.6
42.4
27.9
21.7
(62.3)
(57.9)
(30.3)
(17.3)
(9.4)
(43.1)
(26.5)
(27.7)
(9.7)
42.1
(18.6)
8.3
23.7
7.4
6.5
16.8
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
2018e
28.3
27.0
38.1
38.7
37.2
31.7
28.9
33.7
33.7
33.7
211.0
228.6
263.6
288.3
259.7
237.4
215.8
218.8
254.8
256.8
78.2
80.7
63.4
77.7
65.5
68.9
70.2
71.0
71.0
71.0
Inventories
193.4
207.2
228.9
211.5
179.3
145.4
126.4
126.8
129.4
137.8
Trade debtors
147.8
175.4
188.1
177.2
150.8
135.3
124.3
123.9
126.4
134.6
Other debtors
30.4
41.1
35.2
30.4
34.4
49.6
28.3
34.1
34.1
34.1
122.0
95.0
83.5
124.9
105.2
110.0
128.8
126.8
123.9
128.1
Total Assets
811.0
855.1
900.8
948.8
832.2
778.4
722.7
735.1
773.2
796.1
Shareholder's equity
212.6
222.1
205.5
168.4
132.4
98.2
128.6
159.4
197.4
245.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Minorities
15.8
11.9
15.2
6.8
2.2
2.8
25.0
24.8
24.8
24.8
Provisions
134.6
135.8
152.4
210.2
191.9
219.7
198.9
186.3
186.3
186.3
176.3
193.3
219.7
272.2
232.2
176.9
121.0
119.4
119.4
88.9
35.5
49.3
58.2
50.3
39.8
27.9
14.5
13.0
13.0
13.0
Trade creditors
69.8
102.3
128.5
125.3
127.4
134.4
108.0
107.3
109.5
116.6
166.4
140.5
121.4
115.4
106.3
118.6
126.7
124.9
122.9
120.9
811.0
855.1
900.8
948.8
832.2
778.4
722.7
735.1
773.2
796.1
461.6
510.0
525.4
511.8
535.8
417.6
380.0
540.0
542.9
508.1
89.8
147.6
194.4
197.7
166.8
94.7
6.8
5.6
8.5
(26.2)
572.8
611.0
642.0
693.7
578.2
511.0
468.7
495.5
533.4
551.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
572.8
611.0
642.0
693.7
578.2
511.0
468.7
495.5
533.4
551.2
135.4
181.0
202.3
178.4
130.9
77.3
44.3
52.6
57.5
69.0
212.6
222.1
205.5
168.4
132.4
98.2
128.6
159.4
197.4
245.6
Other equity
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
2018e
26.9
26.9
27.5
27.5
27.6
27.6
28.3
28.3
28.3
28.3
26.9
26.9
27.5
27.5
27.6
27.6
28.3
28.3
28.3
28.3
26.9
26.9
27.5
27.5
27.6
27.6
28.3
28.3
28.3
28.3
17.15
18.95
19.10
18.60
19.44
15.16
13.43
19.08
19.18
17.95
1.02
2.93
5.31
4.61
3.76
1.04
(1.36)
(1.44)
(1.33)
(2.56)
34.04
36.80
49.13
44.17
42.04
39.70
34.53
34.48
35.17
37.46
0.18
2.54
3.61
3.06
2.63
3.11
2.67
3.52
3.79
4.40
EBITA
(0.71)
1.61
2.54
1.48
1.43
1.90
1.32
2.15
2.48
2.99
EBIT
(0.71)
1.61
2.53
1.26
(0.95)
1.47
1.28
2.23
2.34
2.85
(2.29)
0.09
0.19
0.10
(1.51)
0.80
0.39
1.67
1.69
2.17
(2.29)
0.09
0.19
0.10
(1.51)
0.80
0.39
1.67
1.69
2.17
(1.41)
1.02
1.26
1.68
(0.30)
2.00
1.74
3.04
3.00
3.58
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.20
0.29
0.33
0.44
7.90
8.25
7.47
6.12
4.80
3.56
4.54
5.63
6.97
8.68
Adjusted equity
7.90
8.25
7.47
6.12
4.80
3.56
4.54
5.63
6.97
8.68
(0.55)
(0.77)
0.19
1.31
2.02
3.20
2.26
1.00
0.48
1.83
ns
ns
109.44
(44.92)
ns
ns
(50.76)
327.28
0.89
28.42
Sales
EBITDA
Valuation
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
2018e
nmf
nmf
83.4
88.5
nmf
11.8
22.1
9.3
9.3
7.2
P/CF (x)
nmf
9.9
12.4
5.4
nmf
4.7
5.0
5.1
5.2
4.4
P/Book (x)
1.6
1.5
1.3
1.4
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.8
2.2
1.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.3
1.9
2.1
2.8
(8.2)
(12.8)
(1.6)
7.0
15.0
28.7
21.4
4.8
1.5
10.7
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.6
0.5
0.5
EV/EBITDA (x)
96.9
7.5
5.3
6.1
7.4
4.9
5.0
5.4
5.1
4.1
EV/EBITA (x)
nmf
11.8
7.5
12.6
13.6
8.0
10.2
8.9
7.7
6.0
EV/EBIT (x)
nmf
11.8
7.6
14.7
nmf
10.3
10.5
8.6
8.2
6.3
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.9
0.8
0.8
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.9
0.8
0.8
1.1
1.0
0.9
9.84
9.37
16.76
9.90
8.29
7.91
9.50
14.07
7.78
6.24
6.98
5.89
6.04
5.78
6.20
7.40
8.44
7.57
11.19
7.10
6.87
7.08
7.80
13.99
13.99
13.99
11.35
10.84
8.83
7.65
9.54
7.31
8.76
13.99
13.99
13.99
Capital Efficiency/Solvability
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
2018e
Sales/CE (incl.goodwill)
1.6
1.6
2.1
1.8
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.9
4.3
4.3
5.1
4.2
4.5
4.6
4.5
4.5
3.9
4.1
6.8
5.5
6.7
6.8
8.9
14.2
22.1
18.6
17.3
15.4
Inventories/Sales (days)
77.0
76.4
61.8
63.5
56.5
48.5
47.2
47.5
47.5
47.5
58.9
64.6
50.8
53.2
47.5
45.1
46.4
46.4
46.4
46.4
27.8
37.7
34.7
37.6
40.1
44.8
40.3
40.2
40.2
40.2
105.0
CAPEX/Depreciation (%)
107.5
131.8
175.3
110.6
96.1
72.1
60.8
104.9
197.3
26.2
26.0
22.8
17.8
15.9
12.6
17.8
21.7
25.5
30.9
42.2
66.5
94.6
117.3
126.0
96.5
5.3
3.5
4.3
(10.7)
(0.8)
2.6
2.7
1.4
(1.2)
2.1
3.3
7.5
8.9
16.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
51.1
17.4
19.7
20.5
(4.2)
8.3
12.4
6.1
(5.5)
10.6
10.6
16.9
16.1
18.9
(4.2)
8.3
12.4
6.1
(5.5)
10.6
10.6
16.9
16.1
18.9
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
2018e
505.7
485.8
617.3
371.2
374.5
353.7
315.9
315.5
321.8
342.8
94.3
86.1
98.0
66.4
70.2
71.9
73.6
73.6
74.3
75.1
(10.5)
21.2
31.8
10.6
(8.5)
13.1
11.7
20.4
21.4
26.0
45.6
40.3
36.6
39.2
43.0
44.0
43.7
46.2
47.2
49.4
0.5
6.9
7.4
6.9
6.3
7.8
7.7
10.2
10.8
11.7
(2.1)
4.4
5.1
2.9
(2.3)
3.7
3.7
6.5
6.7
7.6
(5.7)
2.2
2.1
(0.2)
(3.7)
2.0
1.0
4.7
4.8
5.7
(47.0)
34.2
39.6
120.4
9.3
(4.6)
66.8
15.8
20.0
20.0
Important disclosures
Issuer
AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group
Ticker
AMG.AS
Price (EUR)
13.99
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Mutlu Gundogan - Equity Research Analyst
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ABN AMRO
Rating
Definition
% companies
under coverage
with this rating
BUY
The stock belongs to the most attractive ones within the ABN AMRO Bank N.V.
local universe.
Expected total return (incl. dividends) for the coming 12 months: >15%
50%
56%
HOLD
The stock does not belong to the current favourites. The investment case is
not appealing for the time being. However, it's worth to keep the stock.
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35%
44%
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15%
0%
12 August 2016
Historical equity recommendations and target price for AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group (EUR)
15
14
27/02
07.73
13
09/05
11/03
08.85
10.17
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
Jun 13
Sep 13
Dec 13
BUY
Mar 14
HOLD
Jun 14
Sep 14
REDUCE
Dec 14
Mar 15
Jun 15
Sep 15
SELL
Dec 15
Mar 16
Jun 16
UNDER REVIEW
History of Recommendations
Recommendation
Target Price
Date
Recommendation
Target Price
8/11/2016
6/30/2016
5/9/2016
3/11/2016
2/27/2015
BUY
BUY
BUY
HOLD
SELL
EUR 19.00
EUR 14.00
EUR 13.00
EUR 9.00
EUR 6.50
5/9/2016
3/11/2016
2/27/2015
BUY
HOLD
SELL
EUR 13.00
EUR 9.00
EUR 6.50
Sep 16
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