Clash of Civilizations by Samuel P. Huntington - SUMMARY EXCERPTS - Trilateral Commission

3/8/2016
The Clash of Civilizations by Samuel P. Huntington
TheClashofCivilizations
bySamuelP.Huntington
TouchstoneBooks,1996,paper
p51
GeoffreyParker
"[I]nlargemeasure,theriseoftheWest'dependedupontheexerciseofforce,upon
thefactthatthemilitarybalancebetweentheEuropeansandtheiradversaries
overseaswassteadilytiltinginfavouroftheformer...thekeytotheWesterners'
successincreatingthefirsttrulyglobalempiresbetween1500and1750depended
uponpreciselythoseimprovementsintheabilitytowagewarwhichhavebeen
termed'themilitaryrevolution.'TheexpansionoftheWestwasalsofacilitatedby
thesuperiorityinorganization,discipline,andtrainingofitstroopsand
subsequentlybythesuperiorweapons,transport,logistics,andmedicalservices
resultingfromitsleadershipintheIndustrialRevolution.TheWestwontheworld
notbythesuperiorityofitsideasorvaluesorreligion(towhichfewmembersof
othercivilizationswereconverted)butratherbyitssuperiorityinapplying
organizedviolence.WesternersoftenforgetthisfactnonWesternersneverdo.
p51
TheWestwontheworldnotbythesuperiorityofitsideasorvaluesorreligion(to
whichfewmembersofothercivilizationswereconverted)butratherbyits
superiorityinapplyingorganizedviolence.Westernersoftenforgetthisfactnon
Westernersneverdo.
p81
TheFadingoftheWest:Power,Culture,andIndigenization
http://www.thirdworldtraveler.com/US_ThirdWorld/Clash_Civilizations.html
1/26
3/8/2016
WESTERNPOWER:DOMINANCEANDDECLINE
TwopicturesexistofthepoweroftheWestinrelationtoothercivilizations.The
firstisofoverwhelming,triumphant,almosttotalWesterndominance.The
disintegrationoftheSovietUnionremovedtheonlyseriouschallengertotheWest
andasaresulttheworldisandwillbeshapedbythegoals,priorities,andinterests
oftheprincipalWesternnations,withperhapsanoccasionalassistfromJapan.As
theoneremainingsuperpower,theUnitedStatestogetherwithBritainandFrance
makethecrucialdecisionsonpoliticalandsecurityissuestheUnitedStates
togetherwithGermanyandJapanmakethecrucialdecisionsoneconomicissues.
TheWestistheonlycivilizationwhichhassubstantialinterestsineveryother
civilizationorregionandhastheabilitytoaffectthepolitics,economics,and
securityofeveryothercivilizationorregion.Societiesfromothercivilizations
usuallyneedWesternhelptoachievetheirgoalsandprotecttheirinterests.
Westernnations,asoneauthorsummarizedit:
*Ownandoperatetheinternationalbankingsystem
*Controlallhardcurrencies
*Aretheworld'sprincipalcustomer
*Providethemajorityoftheworld'sfinishedgoods
*Dominateinternationalcapitalmarkets
*Exertconsiderablemoralleadershipwithinmanysocieties
*Arecapableofmassivemilitaryintervention
*Controlthesealanes
*Conductmostadvancedtechnicalresearchanddevelopment
*Controlleadingedgetechnicaleducation
*Dominateaccesstospace
*Dominatetheaerospaceindustry
*Dominateinternationalcommunications
*Dominatethehightechweaponsindustry'
ThesecondpictureoftheWestisverydifferent.Itisofacivilizationindecline,its
shareofworldpolitical,economic,andmilitarypowergoingdownrelativetothatof
2/26
3/8/2016
othercivilizations.TheWest'svictoryintheColdWarhasproducednottriumphbut
exhaustion.TheWestisincreasinglyconcernedwithitsinternalproblemsand
needs,asitconfrontssloweconomicgrowth,stagnatingpopulations,
unemployment,hugegovernmentdeficits,adecliningworkethic,lowsavingsrates,
andinmanycountriesincludingtheUnitedStatessocialdisintegration,drugs,and
crime.EconomicpowerisrapidlyshiftingtoEastAsia,andmilitarypowerand
politicalinfluencearestartingtofollow.Indiaisonthevergeofeconomictakeoff
andtheIslamicworldisincreasinglyhostiletowardtheWest.Thewillingnessof
othersocietiestoaccepttheWest'sdictatesorabideitssermonsisrapidly
evaporating,andsoaretheWest'sselfconfidenceandwilltodominate.Thelate
1980switnessedmuchdebateaboutthedeclinistthesisconcerningtheUnited
States.Inthemid1990s,abalancedanalysiscametoasomewhatsimilar
conclusion:
[I]nmanyimportantrespects,its[theUnitedStates']relativepowerwilldeclineat
anacceleratingpace.Intermsofitsraweconomiccapabilities,thepositionofthe
UnitedStatesinrelationtoJapanandeventuallyChinaislikelytoerodestillfurther.
Inthemilitaryrealm,thebalanceofeffectivecapabilitiesbetweentheUnitedStates
andanumberofgrowingregionalpowers(including,perhaps,Iran,India,and
China)willshiftfromthecentertowardtheperiphery.SomeofAmerica'sstructural
powerwillflowtoothernationssome(andsomeofitssoftpoweraswell)willfind
itswayintothehandsofnonstateactorslikemultinationalcorporations.:
WhichofthesetwocontrastingpicturesoftheplaceoftheWestintheworld
describesreality?Theanswer,ofcourse,is:theybothdo.TheWestis
overwhelminglydominantnowandwillremainnumberoneintermsofpowerand
influencewellintothetwentyfirstcentury.Gradual,inexorable,andfundamental
changes,however,arealsooccurringinthebalancesofpoweramongcivilizations,
andthepoweroftheWestrelativetothatofothercivilizationswillcontinueto
decline.AstheWest'sprimacyerodes,muchofitspowerwillsimplyevaporateand
therestwillbediffusedonaregionalbasisamongtheseveralmajorcivilizations
andtheircorestates.Themostsignificantincreasesmpowerareaccruingandwill
accruetoAsiancivilizations,withChinagraduallyemergingasthesocietymost
likelytochallengetheWestforglobalinfluence.Theseshiftsinpoweramong
civilizationsareleadingandwillleadtotherevivalandincreasedcultural
assertivenessofnonWesternsocietiesandtotheirincreasingrejectionofWestern
culture.
ThedeclineoftheWesthasthreemajorcharacteristics.
First,itisaslowprocess.TheriseofWesternpowertookfourhundredyears.Its
recessioncouldtakeaslong.Inthe1980sthedistinguishedBritishscholarHedley
Bullarguedthat"EuropeanorWesterndominanceoftheuniversalinternational
societymaybesaidtohavereacheditsapogeeabouttheyear1900."Spengler's
firstvolumeappearedin1918andthe"declineoftheWest"hasbeenacentral
themeintwentiethcenturyhistory.Theprocessitselfhasstretchedoutthrough
mostofthecentury.Conceivably,however,itcouldaccelerate.Economicgrowth
3/26
3/8/2016
andotherincreasesinacountry'scapabilitiesoftenproceedalonganScurve:a
slowstartthenrapidaccelerationfollowedbyreducedratesofexpansionand
levelingoff.ThedeclineofcountriesmayalsooccuralongareverseScurve,asit
didwiththeSovietUnion:moderateatfirstthenrapidlyacceleratingbefore
bottomingout.ThedeclineoftheWestisstillintheslowfirstphase,butatsome
pointitmightspeedupdramatically.
Second,declinedoesnotproceedinastraightline.Itishighlyirregularwith
pauses,reversals,andreassertionsofWesternpowerfollowingmanifestationsof
Westernweakness.TheopendemocraticsocietiesoftheWesthavegreatcapacities
forrenewal.Inaddition,unlikemanycivilizations,theWesthashadtwomajor
centersofpower.ThedeclinewhichBullsawstartingabout1900wasessentially
thedeclineoftheEuropeancomponentofWesterncivilization.From1910to1945
Europewasdividedagainstitselfandpreoccupiedwithitsinternaleconomic,social,
andpoliticalproblems.Inthe1940s,however,theAmericanphaseofWestern
dominationbegan,andin1945theUnitedStatesbrieflydominatedtheworldtoan
extentalmostcomparabletothecombinedAlliedPowersin1918.Postwar
decolonizationfurtherreducedEuropeaninfluencebutnotthatoftheUnitedStates,
whichsubstitutedanewtransnationalimperialismforthetraditionalterritorial
empire.DuringtheColdWar,however,Americanmilitarypowerwasmatchedby
thatoftheSovietsandAmericaneconomicpowerdeclinedrelativetothatofJapan.
Yetperiodiceffortsatmilitaryandeconomicrenewaldidoccur.In1991,indeed,
anotherdistinguishedBritishscholar,BarryBuzan,arguedthat"Thedeeperreality
isthatthecentreisnowmoredominant,andtheperipherymoresubordinate,than
atanytimesincedecolonizationbegan."Theaccuracyofthatperception,however,
fadesasthemilitaryvictorythatgaverisetoitalsofadesintohistory.
Third,poweristheabilityofonepersonorgrouptochangethebehaviorofanother
personorgroup.Behaviormaybechangedthroughinducement,coercion,or
exhortation,whichrequirethepowerwieldertohaveeconomic,military,
institutional,demographic,political,technological,social,orotherresources.The
powerofastateorgroupishencenormallyestimatedbymeasuringtheresourcesit
hasatitsdisposalagainstthoseoftheotherstatesorgroups~tistryingto
influence.TheWest'sshareofmost,butnotall,oftheimportantpowerresources
peakedearlyinthetwentiethcenturyandthenbegantodeclinerelativetothoseof
othercivilizations.
TerritoryandPopulation.In1490Westernsocietiescontrolledmostofthe
EuropeanpeninsulaoutsidetheBalkansorperhaps1.5millionsquaremilesoutofa
globallandarea(apartfromAntarctica)of52.5millionsquaremilesAtthepeakof
itsterritorialexpansionin1920,theWestdirectlyruledabout25.5millionsquare
milesorclosetohalftheearth'searth.By1993thisterritorialcontrolhadbeencut
inhalftoabout12.7millionsquaremiles.TheWestwasbacktoitsoriginal
EuropeancoreplusitsspacioussettlerpopulatedlandsinNorthAmerica,Australia,
andNewZealand.TheterritoryofindependentIslamicsocieties,incontrast,rose
from1.8millionsquaremilesin1920toover11millionsquaremilesin1993.
Similarchangesoccurredinthecontrolofpopulation.In1900Westerners
composedroughly30percentoftheworld'spopulationandWesterngovernments
4/26
3/8/2016
ruledalmost45percentofthatpopulationthenand48percentin1920.In1993,
exceptforafewsmallimperialremnantslikeHongKong,Westerngovernments
rulednoonebutWesterners.Westernersamountedtoslightlyover13percentof
humanityandareduetodroptoabout11percentearlyinthenextcenturyandto
10percentby2025sIntermsoftotalpopulation,in1993theWestrankedfourth
behindSinicIslamic,andHinducivilizations.
QuantitativelyWesternersthusconstituteasteadilydecreasingminorityofthe
world'spopulation.QualitativelythebalancebetweentheWestandother
populationsisalsochanging.NonWesternpeoplesarebecominghealthier,more
urban,moreliterate,bettereducated.Bytheearly1990sinfantmortalityratesin
LatinAmerica,Africa,theMiddleEast,SouthAsia,EastAsia,andSoutheastAsia
wereonethirdtoonehalfwhattheyhadbeenthirtyyearsearlier.Lifeexpectancy
intheseregionshadincreasedsignificantly,withgainsvaryingfromelevenyearsin
AfricatotwentythreeyearsinEastAsia.Intheearly1960sinmostoftheThird
Worldlessthanonethirdoftheadultpopulationwasliterate.Intheearly1990s,in
veryfewcountriesapartfromAfricawaslessthanonehalfthepopulationliterate.
AboutfiftypercentofIndiansand75percentofChinesecouldreadandwrite.
Literacyratesindevelopingcountriesin1970averaged41percentofthosein
developedcountriesin1992theyaveraged71percent.Bytheearly1990sinevery
regionexceptAfricavirtuallytheentireagegroupwasenrolledinprimary
education.Mostsignificantly,intheearly1960sinAsia,LatinAmerica,theMiddle
East,andAfricalessthanonethirdoftheappropriateagegroupwasenrolledin
secondaryeducation,bytheearly1990sonehalfoftheagegroupwasenrolled
exceptinAfrica.In1960urbanresidentsmadeuplessthanonequarterofthe
populationofthelessdevelopedworld.Between1960and1992,however,the
urbanpercentageofthepopulationrosefrom49percentto73percentinLatin
America,34percentto55percentinArabcountries,14percentto29percentin
Africa,18percentto27percentinChina,and19percentto26percentinIndia.
Theseshiftsinliteracy,education,andurbanizationcreatedsociallymobilized
populationswithenhancedcapabilitiesandhigherexpectationswhocouldbe
activatedforpoliticalpurposesinwaysinwhichilliteratepeasantscouldnot.
Sociallymobilizedsocietiesaremorepowerfulsocieties.In1953whenlessthan15
percentofIranianswereliterateandlessthan17percenturban,KermitRoosevelt
andafewCIAoperativesrathereasilysuppressedaninsurgencyandrestoredthe
Shahtohisthrone.In1979,when50percentofIranianswereliterateand47
percentlivedincities,noamountofU.S.militarypowercouldhavekepttheShahon
histhrone.AsignificantgapstillseparatesChinese,Indians,Arabs,andAfricans
fromWesterners,Japanese,andRussians.Yetthegapisnarrowingrapidly.Atthe
sametime,adifferentgapisopening
heaverageagesofWesterners,Japanese,andRussiansareincreasinglysteadily,
andthelargerproportionofthepopulationthatnolongerworksimposesa
mountingburdenonthosestillproductivelyemployed.Othercivilizationsare
burdenedbylargenumbersofchildren,butchildrenarefutureworkersand
soldiers.
5/26
3/8/2016
EconomicProduct.TheWesternshareoftheglobaleconomicproductalsomayhave
peakedinthe1920sandhasclearlybeendecliningsinceWorldWarII.In1750
Chinaaccountedforalmostonethird,IndiaforalmostonequarterandtheWestfor
lessthanafifthoftheworld'smanufacturingoutput.By1830theWesthadpulled
slightlyaheadofChina.Inthefollowingdecades,asPaulBairochpointsout,the
industrializationoftheWestledtothedeindustrializationoftherestoftheworld.
In1913themanufacturingoutputofnonWesterncountrieswasroughlytwothirds
whatithadbeenin1800.BeginninginthemidnineteenthcenturytheWestern
sharerosedramatically,peakingin1928at84.2percentofworldmanufacturing
output.ThereaftertheWest'ssharedeclinedasitsrateofgrowthremainedmodest
andaslessindustrializedcountriesexpandedtheiroutputrapidlyafterWorldWar
II.By1980theWestaccountedfor57.8percentofglobalmanufacturingoutput,
roughlytheshareithad120yearsearlierinthe1860s.
ReliabledataongrosseconomicproductarenotavailableforthepreWorldWarII
period.In1950,however,theWestaccountedforroughly64percentofthegross
worldproductbythe1980sthisproportionhaddroppedto49percent.(SeeTable
4.5.)By2013,accordingtooneestimate,theWestwillaccountforonly30%ofthe
worldproduct.In1991,accordingtoanotherestimate,fouroftheworld'sseven
largesteconomiesbelongedtononWesternnations:Japan(insecondplace),China
(third),Russia(sixth),andIndia(seventh).In1992theUnitedStateshadthe
largesteconomyintheworld,andthetopteneconomiesincludedthoseoffive
Westerncountriesplustheleadingstatesoffiveothercivilizations:China,Japan,
India,Russia,andBrazil.In2020plausibleprojectionsindicatethatthetopfive
economieswillbeinfivedifferentcivilizations,andthetopteneconomieswill
includeonlythreeWesterncountries.ThisrelativedeclineoftheWestis,ofcourse,
inlargepartafunctionoftherapidriseofEastAsia.
GrossfiguresoneconomicoutputpartiallyobscuretheWest'squalitative
advantage.TheWestandJapanalmosttotallydominateadvancedtechnology
industries.Technologiesarebeingdisseminated,however,andiftheWestwishesto
maintainitssuperiorityitwilldowhatitcantominimizethatdissemination.Thanks
totheinterconnectedworldwhichtheWesthascreated,however,slowingthe
diffusionoftechnologytoothercivilizationsisincreasinglydifficult.Itismadeall
themoresointheabsenceofasingle,overpowering,agreeduponthreatsuchas
existedduringtheColdWarandgavemeasuresoftechnologycontrolsomemodest
effectiveness.
ItappearsprobablethatformostofhistoryChinahadtheworld'slargesteconomy.
ThediffusionoftechnologyandtheeconomicdevelopmentofnonWestern
societiesinthesecondhalfofthetwentiethcenturyarenowproducingareturnto
thehistoricalpattern.Thiswillbeaslowprocess,butbythemiddleofthetwenty
firstcentury,ifnotbefore,thedistributionofeconomicproductandmanufacturing
outputamongtheleadingcivilizationsislikelytoresemblethatof1800.Thetwo
hundredyearWestern"blip"ontheworldeconomywillbeover.
MilitaryCapability.Militarypowerhasfourdimensions:quantitativethenumbersof
6/26
3/8/2016
men,weapons,equipment,andresourcestechnologicaltheeffectivenessand
sophisticationofweaponsandequipmentorganizationalthecoherence,discipline,
training,andmoraleofthetroopsandtheeffectivenessofcommandandcontrol
relationshipsandsocietaltheabilityandwillingnessofthesocietytoapplymilitary
forceeffectively.Inthe1920stheWestwasfaraheadofeveryoneelseinallthese
dimensions.Intheyearssince,themilitarypoweroftheWesthasdeclinedrelative
tothatofothercivilizations,adeclinereflectedmtheshiftingbalanceinmilitary
personnel,onemeasurealthoughclearlynotthemostimportantone,ofmilitary
capability.Modernizationandeconomicdevelopmentgeneratetheresourcesand
desireforstatestodeveloptheirmilitarycapabilities,andfewstatesfailtodoso.In
the1930sJapanandtheSovietUnioncreatedverypowerfulmilitaryforces,asthey
demonstratedinWorldWarII.DuringtheColdWartheSovietUnionhadoneofthe
world'stwomostpowerfulmilitaryforces.CurrentlytheWestmonopolizesthe
abilitytodeploysubstantialconventionalmilitaryforcesanywhereintheworld.
Whetheritwillcontinuetomaintainthatcapabilityisuncertain.Itseems
reasonablycertain,however,thatnononWesternstateorgroupofstateswill
createacomparablecapabilityduringthecomingdecades.
Overall,theyearsaftertheColdWarhavebeendominatedbyfivemajortrendsin
theevolutionofglobalmilitarycapabilities.
First,thearmedforcesoftheSovietUnionceasedtoexistshortlyaftertheSoviet
Unionceasedtoexist.ApartfromRussia,onlyUkraineinheritedsignificantmilitary
capabilities.Russianforcesweregreatlyreducedinsizeandwerewithdrawnfrom
CentralEuropeandtheBalticstates.TheWarsawPactended.Thegoalof
challengingtheU.S.Navywasabandoned.Militaryequipmentwaseitherdisposed
oforallowedtodeteriorateandbecomenonoperational.Budgetallocationsfor
defenseweredrasticallyreduced.Demoralizationpervadedtheranksofboth
officersandmen.AtthesametimetheRussianmilitarywereredefiningtheir
missionsanddoctrineandrestructuringthemselvesfortheirnewrolesinprotecting
Russiansanddealingwithregionalconflictsinthenearabroad.
Second,theprecipitousreductioninRussianmilitarycapabilitiesstimulateda
slowerbutsignificantdeclineinWesternmilitaryspending,forces,andcapabilities.
UndertheplansoftheBushandClintonadministrations,U.S.militaryspendingwas
duetodropby35percentfrom$342.3billion(1994dollars)in1990to$222.3in
1998.Theforcestructurethatyearwouldbehalftotwothirdswhatitwasatthe
endoftheColdWar.Totalmilitarypersonnelwouldgodownfrom2.1millionto1.4
million.Manymajorweaponsprogramshavebeenandarebeingcanceled.Between
1985and1995annualpurchasesofmajorweaponswentdownfrom29to6ships,
943to127aircraft,720to0tanks,and48to18strategicmissiles.Beginninginthe
late1980s,Britain,Germany,and,toalesserdegree,Francewentthroughsimilar
reductionsindefensespendingandmilitarycapabilities.Inthemid1990s,the
Germanarmedforceswerescheduledtodeclinefrom370,000to340,000and
probablyto320,000theFrencharmywastodropfromitsstrengthof290,000in
1990to225,000in1997.Britishmilitarypersonnelwentdownfrom377,100in
1985to274,800in1993.ContinentalmembersofNATOalsoshortenedtermsof
conscriptedserviceanddebatedthepossibleabandonmentofconscription.
7/26
3/8/2016
Third,thetrendsinEastAsiadifferedsignificantlyfromthoseinRussiaandthe
West.Increasedmilitaryspendingandforceimprovementsweretheorderofthe
dayChinawasthepacesetter.Stimulatedbyboththeirincreasingeconomicwealth
andtheChinesebuildup,otherEastAsiannationsaremodernizingandexpanding
theirmilitaryforces.Japanhascontinuedtoimproveitshighlysophisticated
militarycapability.Taiwan,SouthKorea,Thailand,Malaysia,Singapore,and
Indonesiaallarespendingmoreontheirmilitaryandpurchasingplanes,tanks,and
shipsfromRussia,theUnitedStates,Britain,France,Germany,andothercountries.
WhileNATOdefenseexpendituresdeclinedbyroughly10percentbetween1985
and1993(from$539.6billionto$485.0billion)(constant1993dollars),
expendituresinEastAsiaroseby50percentfrom$89.8billionto$134.8billion
duringthesameperiod.
Fourth,militarycapabilitiesincludingweaponsofmassdestructionarediffusing
broadlyacrosstheworld.Ascountriesdevelopeconomically,theygeneratethe
capacitytoproduceweapons.Betweenthe1960sand1980s,forinstance,the
numberofThirdWorldcountriesproducingfighteraircraftincreasedfromoneto
eight,tanksfromonetosix,helicoptersfromonetosixandtacticalmissilesfrom
nonetoseven.The1990shaveseenamajortrendtowardtheglobalizationofthe
defenseindustry,whichislikelyfurthertoerodeWesternmilitaryadvantages.Many
nonWesternsocietieseitherhavenuclearweapons(Russia,China,Israel,India,
Pakistan,andpossiblyNorthKorea)orhavebeenmakingstrenuouseffortsto
acquirethem(Iran,Iraq,Libya,andpossiblyAlgeria)orareplacingthemselvesina
positionquicklytoacquirethemiftheyseetheneedtodoso(Japan).
Finally,allthosedevelopmentsmakeregionalizationthecentraltrendinmilitary
strategyandpowerinthepostColdWarworld.Regionalizationprovidesthe
rationaleforthereductionsinRussianandWesternmilitaryforcesandforincreases
inthemilitaryforcesofotherstates.Russianolongerhasaglobalmilitary
capabilitybutisfocusingitsstrategyandforcesonthenearabroad.Chinahas
reorienteditsstrategyandforcestoemphasizelocalpowerprojectionandthe
defenseofChineseinterestsinEastAsia.Europeancountriesaresimilarly
redirectingtheirforces,throughbothNATOandtheWesternEuropeanUnion,to
dealwithinstabilityontheperipheryofWesternEurope.TheUnitedStateshas
explicitlyshifteditsmilitaryplanningfromdeterringandfightingtheSovietUnion
onaglobalbasistopreparingtodealsimultaneouslywithregionalcontingenciesin
thePersianGulfandNortheastAsia.TheUnitedStates,however,isnotlikelyto
havethemilitarycapabilitytomeetthesegoals.TodefeatIraq,theUnitedStates
deployedinthePersianGulf75percentofitsactivetacticalaircraft,42percentof
itsmodernbattletanks,46percentofitsaircraftcarriers,37percentofitsarmy
personnel,and46percentofitsmarinepersonnel.Withsignificantlyreducedforces
inthefuture,theUnitedStateswillbehardputtocarryoutoneintervention,much
lesstwoagainstsubstantialregionalpowersoutsidetheWesternHemisphere.
Militarysecuritythroughouttheworldincreasinglydependsnotontheglobal
distributionofpowerandtheactionsofsuperpowersbutonthedistributionof
powerwithineachregionoftheworldandtheactionsofthecorestatesof
civilizations.
8/26
3/8/2016
Insum,overalltheWestwillremainthemostpowerfulcivilizationwellintothe
earlydecadesofthetwentyfirstcentury.Beyondthenitwillprobablycontinueto
haveasubstantialleadinscientifictalent,researchanddevelopmentcapabilities,
andcivilianandmilitarytechnologicalinnovation.Controlovertheotherpower
resources,however,isbecomingincreasinglydispersedamongthecorestatesand
leadingcountriesofnonWesterncivilizations.TheWest'scontroloftheseresources
peakedinthe1920sandhassincebeendecliningirregularlybutsignificantly.Inthe
2020s,ahundredyearsafterthatpeak,theWestwillprobablycontrolabout24
percentoftheworld'sterritory(downfromapeakof49percent),10percentofthe
totalworldpopulation(downfrom48percent)andperhaps1520percentofthe
sociallymobilizedpopulation,about30percentoftheworld'seconomicproduct
(downfromapeakofprobably70percent),perhaps25percentofmanufacturing
output(downfromapeakof84percent),andlessthan10percentofglobalmilitary
manpower(downfrom45percent).
In1919WoodrowWilson,LloydGeorge,andGeorgesClemenceautogethervirtually
controlledtheworld.SittinginParis,theydeterminedwhatcountrieswouldexist
andwhichwouldnot,whatnewcountrieswouldbecreated,whattheirboundaries
wouldbeandwhowouldrulethem,andhowtheMiddleEastandotherpartsofthe
worldwouldbedividedupamongthevictoriouspowers.Theyalsodecidedon
militaryinterventioninRussiaandeconomicconcessionstobeextractedfrom
China.Ahundredyearslater,nosmallgroupofstatesmenwillbeabletoexercise
comparablepowertotheextentthatanygroupdoesitwillnotconsistofthree
Westernersbutleadersofthecorestatesoftheworld'ssevenoreightmajor
civilizations.ThesuccessorstoReagan,Thatcher,Mitterrand,andKohlwillbe
rivaledbythoseofDengXiaoping,Nakasone,IndiraGandhi,Yeltsin,Khomeini,and
Suharto.TheageofWesterndominancewillbeover.Inthemeantimethefadingof
theWestandtheriseofotherpowercentersispromotingtheglobalprocessesof
indigenizationandtheresurgenceofnonWesterncultures.
p97
Peopledonotlivebyreasonalone.Theycannotcalculateandactrationallyin
pursuitoftheirselfinterestuntiltheydefinetheirself.Interestpoliticspresupposes
identity.Intimesofrapidsocialchangeestablishedidentitiesdissolve,theselfmust
beredefined,andnewidentitiescreated.Forpeoplefacingtheneedtodetermine
WhoamI?WheredoIbelong?religionprovidescompellinganswers,andreligious
groupsprovidesmallsocialcommunitiestoreplacethoselostthroughurbanization.
Allreligions,asHassanalTurabisaid,furnish"peoplewithasenseofidentityanda
directioninlife."
p98
Fundamentalistmovements,inparticular,are"awayofcopingwiththeexperience
ofchaos,thelossofidentity,meaningandsecuresocialstructurescreatedbythe
rapidintroductionofmodernsocialandpoliticalpatterns,secularism,scientific
cultureandeconomicdevelopment."
p98
9/26
3/8/2016
Morebroadly,thereligiousresurgencethroughouttheworldisareactionagainst
secularism,moralrelativism,andselfindulgence,andareafffirmationofthevalues
oforder,discipline,work,mutualhelp,andhumansolidarity.Religiousgroupsmeet
socialneedsleftuntendedbystatebureaucracies.
p99
UnliketheCatholicChurch,oneBrazilianpriestobserved,theProtestantchurches
meet"thebasicneedsofthepersonhumanwarmth,healing,adeepspiritual
experience."ThespreadofProtestantismamongthepoorinLatinAmericaisnot
primarilythereplacementofonereligionbyanotherbutratheramajornetincrease
inreligiouscommitmentandparticipationasnominalandpassiveCatholicsbecome
activeanddevoutEvangelicals.
p100
InthenineteenthcenturynonWesternelitesimbibedWesternliberalvalues,and
theirfirstexpressionsofoppositiontotheWesttooktheformofliberalnationalism.
InthetwentiethcenturyRussian,Asian,Arab,African,andLatinAmericanelites
importedsocialistandMarxistideologiesandcombinedthemwithnationalismin
oppositiontoWesterncapitalismandWesternimperialism.Thecollapseof
communismintheSovietUnion,itsseveremodificationinChina,andthefailureof
socialisteconomiestoachievesustaineddevelopmenthavenowcreatedan
ideologicalvacuum.Westerngovernments,groups,andinternationalinstitutions,
suchastheIMFandWorldBank,haveattemptedtofillthisvacuumwiththe
doctrinesofneoorthodoxeconomicsanddemocraticpolitics.Theextenttowhich
thesedoctrineswillhavealastingimpactinnonWesternculturesisuncertain.
Meanwhile,however,peopleseecommunismasonlythelatestseculargodtohave
failed,andintheabsenceofcompellingnewseculardeitiestheyturnwithreliefand
passiontotherealthing.Religiontakesoverfromideology,andreligious
nationalismreplacessecularnationalism.
p101
"Morethananythingelse,"WilliamMcNeillobserves,"reaffirmationofIslam,
whateveritsspecificsectarianform,meanstherepudiationofEuropeanand
AmericanInfluenceuponlocalsociety,politics,andmorals."Inthissense,the
revivalofnonWesternreligionsisthemostpowerfulmanifestationofanti
WesternisminnonWesternsocieties.Thatrevivalisnotarejectionofmodernityit
isarejectionoftheWestandofsecular,relativistic,degeneratecultureassociated
withtheWest.Itisarejectionofwhathasbeentermedthe"Westoxification"of
nonWesternsocieties.ItisadeclarationofculturalindependencefromtheWest,a
proudstatementthat:"Wewillbemodernbutwewon'tbeyou."
p112
Likefundamentalistsinotherreligions,Islamistsareoverwhelminglyparticipantsin
andproductsoftheprocessesofmodernizationTheyaremobileandmodern
orientedyoungerpeople...
Aswithmostrevolutionarymovements,thecoreelementhasconsistedofstudents
10/26
3/8/2016
andintellectuals.
p117
Youngpeoplearetheprotagonistsofprotest,instability,reform,andrevolution.
p121
MuslimpopulationgrowthwillbeadestabilizingforceforbothMuslimsocietiesand
theirneighbors.Thelargenumbersofyoungpeoplewithsecondaryeducationswill
continuetopowertheIslamicResurgenceandpromoteMuslimmilitancy,
militarism,andmigration.Asaresult,theearlyyearsofthetwentyfirstcenturyare
likelytoseeanongoingresurgenceofnonWesternpowerandcultureandtheclash
ofthepeoplesofnonWesterncivilizationswiththeWestandwitheachother.
p125
Peoplesandcountrieswithsimilarculturesarecomingtogether.Peoplesand
countrieswithdifferentculturesarecomingapart.Alignmentsdefinedbyideology
andsuperpowerrelationsaregivingwaytoalignmentsdefinedbycultureand
civilization.Politicalboundariesincreasinglyareredrawntocoincidewithcultural
ones:ethnic,religious,andcivilizational.CulturalcommunitiesarereplacingCold
Warblocsandthefaultlinesbetweencivilizationsarebecomingthecentrallinesof
conflictinglobalpolitics.
DuringtheColdWaracountrycouldbenonaligned,asmanywere,oritcould,as
somedid,changeitsalignmentfromonesidetoanother.Theleadersofacountry
couldmakethesechoicesintermsoftheirperceptionsoftheirsecurityinterests,
theircalculationsofthebalanceofpower,andtheirideologicalpreferences.Inthe
newworld,however,culturalidentityisthecentralfactorshapingacountry's
associationsandantagonisms.WhileacountrycouldavoidColdWaralignment.it
cannotlackanidentity.Thequestion,"Whichsideareyouon?"hasbeenreplaced
bythemuchmorefundamentalone,"Whoareyou?"Everystatehastohavean
answer.Thatanswer,itsculturalidentity,definesthestate'splaceinworldpolitics,
itsfriends,anditsenemies.
p126
Incopingwithidentitycrisis,whatcountsforpeoplearebloodandbelief,faithand
family.Peoplerallytothosewithsimilarancestry.religion,language,values,and
institutionsanddistancethemselvesfromthosewithdifferentones.InEurope,
Austria,Finland,andSweden,culturallypartoftheWest,hadtobedivorcedfrom
theWestandneutralduringtheColdWartheyarenowabletojointheircultural
kinintheEuropeanUnion.TheCatholicandProtestantcountriesintheformer
WarsawPact,Poland,Hungary,theCzechRepublic,andSlovakia,aremoving
towardmembershipintheUnionandinNATO,andtheBalticstatesareinline
behindthem.TheEuropeanpowersmakeitclearthattheydonotwantaMuslim
state,Turkey,intheEuropeanUnionandarenothappyabouthavingasecond
Muslimstate,Bosnia,ontheEuropeancontinent.
p130
11/26
3/8/2016
Forselfdefinitionandmotivationpeopleneedenemies:competitorsinbusiness,
rivalsinachievement,opponentsinpolitics.Theynaturallydistrustandseeas
threatsthosewhoaredifferentandhavethecapabilitytoharmthem.The
resolutionofoneconflictandthedisappearanceofoneenemygeneratepersonal,
social,andpoliticalforcesthatgiverisetonewones."The'us'versus'them'
tendencyis,"asAliMazruisaid,"inthepoliticalarena,almostuniversal."
p158
EuropeendswhereWesternChristianityendsandIslamandOrthodoxybegin.
p169
Intheearly1990s,Chinesemadeup1percentofthepopulationofthePhilippines
butwereresponsiblefor35percentofthesalesofdomesticallyownedfirms.In
Indonesiainthemid1980s,Chinesewere23percentofthepopulation,butowned
roughly70percentoftheprivatedomesticcapital.Seventeenofthetwentyfive
largestbusinesseswereChinesecontrolled,andoneChineseconglomerate
reportedlyaccountedfor5percentofIndonesia'sGNP.Intheearly1990sChinese
were10percentofthepopulationofThailandbutownednineofthetenlargest
businessgroupsandwereresponsiblefor50percentofitsGNP.Chineseareabout
onethirdofthepopulationofMalaysiabutalmosttotallydominatetheeconomy.
OutsideJapanandKoreatheEastAsianeconomyisbasicallyaChineseeconomy.
p184
Thedangerousclashesofthefuturearelikelytoarisefromtheinteractionof
Westernarrogance,Islamicintolerance,andSinicassertiveness.
AloneamongcivilizationstheWesthashadamajorandattimesdevastatingimpact
oneveryothercivilization.TherelationbetweenthepowerandcultureoftheWest
andthepowerandculturesofothercivilizationsis,asaresult,themostpervasive
characteristicoftheworldofcivilizations.Astherelativepowerofother
civilizationsincreases,theappealofWesternculturefadesandnonWestern
peopleshaveincreasingconfidenceinandcommitmenttotheirindigenouscultures.
ThecentralproblemintherelationsbetweentheWestandtherestis,consequently,
thediscordancebetweentheWest'sparticularlyAmerica'seffortstopromotea
universalWesterncultureanditsdecliningabilitytodoso.
ThecollapseofcommunismexacerbatedthisdiscordancebyreinforcingintheWest
theviewthatitsideologyofdemocraticliberalismhadtriumphedgloballyand
hencewasuniversallyvalid.TheWest,andespeciallytheUnitedStates,whichhas
alwaysbeenamissionarynation,believethatthenonWesternpeoplesshould
committhemselvestotheWesternvaluesofdemocracy,freemarkets,limited
government,humanrights,individualism,theruleoflaw,andshouldembodythese
valuesintheirinstitutions.Minoritiesinothercivilizationsembraceandpromote
thesevalues,butthedominantattitudestowardtheminnonWesterncultures
rangefromwidespreadskepticismtointenseopposition.Whatisuniversalstothe
Westisimperialismtotherest.
12/26
3/8/2016
TheWestisattemptingandwillcontinuetoattempttosustainitspreeminent
positionanddefenditsinterestsbydefiningthoseinterestsastheinterestsofthe
"worldcommunity."Thatphrasehasbecometheeuphemisticcollectivenoun
(replacing"theFreeWorld")togivegloballegitimacytoactionsreflectingthe
interestsoftheUnitedStatesandotherWesternpowers.TheWestis,forinstance,
attemptingtointegratetheeconomiesofnonWesternsocietiesintoaglobal
economicsystemwhichitdominates.ThroughtheIMFandotherinternational
economicinstitutions,theWestpromotesitseconomicinterestsandimposeson
othernationstheeconomicpoliciesitthinksappropriate.Inanypollofnon
Westernpeoples,however,theIMFundoubtedlywouldwinthesupportoffinance
ministersandafewothersbutgetanoverwhelminglyunfavorableratingfrom
almosteveryoneelse,whowouldagreewithGeorgiArbatov'sdescriptionofIMF
officialsas"neoBolshevikswholoveexpropriatingotherpeople'smoney,imposing
undemocraticandalienrulesofeconomicandpoliticalconductandstifling
economicfreedom."
NonWesternersalsodonothesitatetopointtothegapbetweenWesternprinciple
andWesternaction.Hypocrisy,doublestandards,and"butnots"arethepriceof
universalistpretensions.DemocracyispromotedbutnotifitbringsIslamic
fundamentaliststopowernonproliferationispreachedforIranandIraqbutnotfor
Israel,freetradeistheelixirofeconomicgrowthbutnotforagriculturehuman
rightsareanissuewithChinabutnotwithSaudiArabiaaggressionagainstoil
owningKuwaitisismassivelyrepulsedbutnotagainstnonoilowningBosnians.
Doublestandardsinpracticearetheunavoidablepriceofuniversalstandardsof
principle.
p185
Willtheglobalinstitutions,thedistributionofpower,andthepoliticsand
economiesofnationsinthetwentyfirstcenturyprimarilyreflectWesternvalues
andinterestsorwilltheybeshapedprimarilybythoseofIslamandChina?
p185
TheissuesthatdividetheWestandtheseothersocietiesareincreasinglyimportant
ontheinternationalagenda.ThreesuchissuesinvolvetheeffortsoftheWest:1)to
maintainitsmilitarysuperioritythroughpoliciesofnonproliferationandcounter
proliferationwithrespecttonuclear,biological,andchemicalweaponsandthe
meanstodeliverthem(2)topromoteWesternpoliticalvaluesandinstitutionsby
pressingothersocietiestorespecthumanrightsasconceivedintheWestandto
adoptdemocracyonWesternlinesand(3)toprotectthecultural,social,andethnic
integrityofWesternsocietiesbyrestrictingthenumberofnonWesternersadmitted
asimmigrantsorrefugees.InallthreeareastheWesthashadandislikelyto
continuetohavedifficultiesdefendingitsinterestsagainstthoseofnonWestern
societies.
p192
HUMANRIGHTSANDDEMOCRACY
13/26
3/8/2016
Duringthe1970sand1980soverthirtycountriesshiftedfromauthoritarianto
democraticpoliticalsystems.Severalcauseswereresponsibleforthiswaveof
transitions.Economicdevelopmentwasundoubtedlythemajorunderlyingfactor
generatingthesepoliticalchanges.Inaddition,however,thepoliciesandactionof
theUnitedStates,themajorWesternEuropeanpowers,andinternational
institutionshelpedtobringdemocracytoSpainandPortugal,manyLatinAmerican
countries,thePhilippines,SouthKorea,andEasternEurope.Democratizationwas
mostsuccessfulincountrieswhereChristianandWesterninfluenceswerestrong.
NewdemocraticregimesappearedmostlikelytostabilizeintheSouthernand
CentralEuropeancountriesthatwerepredominantlyCatholicorProtestantand,less
certainly,inLatinAmericancountries.InEastAsia,theCatholicandheavily
AmericaninfluencedPhilippinesreturnedtodemocracyinthe1980s,whileChristian
leaderspromotedmovementtowarddemocracyinSouthKoreaandTaiwan.Ashas
beenpointedoutpreviously,intheformerSovietUnion,theBalticrepublicsappear
tobesuccessfullystabilizingdemocracythedegreeandstabilityofdemocracyin
theOrthodoxrepublicsvaryconsiderablyandareuncertaindemocraticprospectsin
theMuslimrepublicsarebleak.Bythe1990s,exceptforCuba,democratic
transitionshadoccurredinmostofthecountries,outsideAfrica,whosepeoples
espousedWesternChristianityorwheremajorChristianinfluencesexisted.
ThesetransitionsandthecollapseoftheSovietUniongeneratedintheWest,
particularlyintheUnitedStates,thebeliefthataglobaldemocraticrevolutionwas
underwayandthatinshortorderWesternconceptsofhumanrightsandWestern
formsofpoliticaldemocracywouldprevailthroughouttheworld.Promotingthis
spreadofdemocracyhencebecameahighprioritygoalforWesterners.Itwas
endorsedbytheBushadministrationwithSecretaryofStateJamesBakerdeclaring
inApril1990that"Beyondcontainmentliesdemocracy"andthatforthepostCold
Warworld"PresidentBushhasdefinedournewmissiontobethepromotionand
consolidationofdemocracy."Inhis1992campaignBillClintonrepeatedlysaidthat
thepromotionofdemocracywouldbeatoppriorityofaClintonadministration,and
democratizationwastheonlyforeignpolicytopictowhichhedevotedanentire
majorcampaignspeech.Onceinofficeherecommendedatwothirdsincreasein
fundingfortheNationalEndowmentforDemocracyhisassistantfornational
securitydefinedthecentralthemeofClintonforeignpolicyasthe"enlargementof
democracy"andhissecretaryofdefenseidentifiedthepromotionofdemocracyas
oneoffourmajorgoalsandattemptedtocreateaseniorpositioninhisdepartment
topromotethatgoal.Toalesserdegreeandinlessobviousways,thepromotionof
humanrightsanddemocracyalsoassumedaprominentroleintheforeignpolicies
ofEuropeanstatesandinthecriteriausedbytheWesterncontrolledinternational
economicinstitutionsforloansandgrantstodevelopingcountries.
Asof1995EuropeanandAmericaneffortstoachievethesegoalshadmetwith
limitedsuccess.AlmostallnonWesterncivilizationswereresistanttothispressure
fromtheWest.TheseincludedHindu,Orthodox,African,andinsomemeasureeven
LatinAmericancountries.ThegreatestresistancetoWesterndemocratization
efforts,however,camefromIslamandAsia.Thisresistancewasrootedinthe
broadermovementsofculturalassertivenessembodiedintheIslamicResurgence
andtheAsianaffirmation.
14/26
3/8/2016
ThefailuresoftheUnitedStateswithrespecttoAsiastemmedprimarilyfromthe
increasingeconomicwealthandselfconfidenceofAsiangovernments.Asian
publicistsrepeatedlyremindedtheWestthattheoldageofdependenceand
subordinationwaspastandthattheWestwhichproducedhalftheworld's
economicproductinthe1940s,dominatedtheUnitedNations,andwrotethe
UniversalDeclarationonHumanRightshaddisappearedintohistory."[E]ffortsto
promotehumanrightsinAsia,"arguedoneSingaporeanofficial,"mustalsoreckon
withthealtereddistributionofpowerinthepostColdWarworld....Western
leverageoverEastandSoutheastAsiahasbeengreatlyreduced."
Heisright.WhiletheagreementonnuclearmattersbetweentheUnitedStatesand
NorthKoreamightappropriatelybetermeda"negotiatedsurrender,"the
capitulationoftheUnitedStatesonhumanrightsissueswithChinaandotherAsian
powerswasunconditionalsurrender.AfterthreateningChinawiththedenialof
mostfavorednationtreatmentifitwasnotmoreforthcomingonhumanrights,the
ClintonAdministrationfirstsawitssecretaryofstatehumiliatedinBeijing,denied
evenafacesavinggesture,andthenrespondedtothisbehaviorbyrenouncingits
previouspolicyandseparatingMFNstatusfromhumanrightsconcerns.China,in
turn,reactedtothisshowofweaknessbycontinuingandintensifyingthebehavior
towhichtheClintonadministrationobjected.Theadministrationbeatsimilar
retreatsinitsdealingswithSingaporeoverthecaningofanAmericancitizenand
withIndonesiaoveritsrepressiveviolenceinEastTimor.
TheabilityofAsianregimestoresistWesternhumanrightspressureswas
reinforcedbyseveralfactors.AmericanandEuropeanbusinessesweredesperately
anxioustoexpandtheirtradewithandtheirinvestmentintheserapidlygrowing
countriesandsubjectedtheirgovernmentstointensepressurenottodisrupt
economicrelationswiththem.Inaddition,Asiancountriessawsuchpressureasan
infringementontheirsovereigntyandralliedtoeachother'ssupportwhenthese
issuesarose.Taiwanese,Japanese,andHongKongbusinessmenwhoinvestedin
ChinahadamajorinterestinChina'sretainingitsMFNprivilegeswiththeUnited
States.TheJapanesegovernmentgenerallydistanceditselffromAmericanhuman
rightspolicies:Wewillnotlet"abstractnotionsofhumanrights"affectour
relationswithChina,PrimeMinisterKiichiMiyazawasaidnotlongafterTiananmen
Square.ThecountriesofASEANwereunwillingtoapplypressuretoMyanmarand,
indeed,in1994welcomedthemilitaryjuntatotheirmeetingwhiletheEuropean
Union,asitsspokesmansaid,hadtorecognizethatitspolicy"hadnotbeenvery
successful"andthatitwouldhavetogoalongwiththeASEANapproachto
Myanmar.Inaddition,theirgrowingeconomicpowerallowedstatessuchas
MalaysiaandIndonesiatoapply"reverseconditionalities"tocountriesandfirms
whichcriticizethemorengageinotherbehaviortheyfindobjectionable.
OverallthegrowingeconomicstrengthoftheAsiancountriesrendersthem
increasinglyimmunetoWesternpressureconcerninghumanrightsanddemocracy.
"TodayChina'seconomicpower,"RichardNixonobservedin1994,"makesU.S.
Iecturesabouthumanrightsimprudent.Withinadecadeitwillmakethem
irrelevant.Withintwodecadesitwillmakethemlaughable."Bythattime,however,
ChineseeconomicdevelopmentcouldmakeWesternlecturesunnecessary.
15/26
3/8/2016
EconomicgrowthisstrengtheningAsiangovernmentsinrelationtoWestern
governments.InthelongerrunitwillalsostrengthenAsiansocietiesinrelationto
Asiangovernments.IfdemocracycomestoadditionalAsiancountriesitwillcome
becausetheincreasinglystrongAsianbourgeoisiesandmiddleclasseswantitto
come.
Incontrasttoagreementontheindefiniteexpansionofthenonproliferationtreaty,
WesterneffortstopromotehumanrightsanddemocracyinU.N.agenciesgenerally
cametonaught.Withafewexceptions,suchasthosecondemningIraq,human
rightsresolutionswerealmostalwaysdefeatedinU.N.votes.ApartfromsomeLatin
Americancountries,othergovernmentswerereluctanttoenlistineffortsto
promotewhatmanysawas"humanrightsimperialism."In1990,forinstance,
SwedensubmittedonbehalfoftwentyWesternnationsaresolutioncondemning
themilitaryregimeinMyanmar,butoppositionfromAsianandothercountries
killedit.ResolutionscondemningIranforhumanrightsabuseswerealsovoted
down,andforfivestraightyearsinthe1990sChinawasabletomobilizeAsian
supporttodefeatWesternsponsoredresolutionsexpressingconcernoverits
humanrightsviolations.In1994PakistantabledaresolutionintheU.N.
CommissiononHumanRightscondemningIndia'srightsviolationsinKashmir.
CountriesfriendlytoIndiaralliedagainstit,butsoalsodidtwoofPakistan'sclosest
friends,ChinaandIran,whohadbeenthetargetsofsimilarmeasures,andwho
persuadedPakistantowithdrawtheproposal.InfailingtocondemnIndianbrutality
inKashmir,TheEconomistobserved,theU.N.HumanRightsCommission"by
default,sanctionedit.Othercountries,too,aregettingawaywithmurder:Turkey,
Indonesia,Colombia,andAlgeriahaveallescapedcriticism.Thecommissionisthus
givingsuccortogovernmentsthatpracticebutcheryandtorture,whichisexactly
theoppositeofwhatitscreatorsintended."]6
ThedifferencesoverhumanrightsbetweentheWestandothercivilizationsandthe
limitedabilityoftheWesttoachieveitsgoalswereclearlyrevealedintheU.N.
WorldConferenceonHumanRightsinViennainJune1993.Ononesidewerethe
EuropeanandNorthAmericancountriesontheothersidewasablocofaboutfifty
nonWesternstates,thefifteenmostactivemembersofwhichincludedthe
governmentsofoneLatinAmericancountry(Cuba),oneBuddhistcountry
(Myanmar),fourConfuciancountrieswithwidelyvaryingpoliticalideologies,
economicsystems,andlevelsofdevelopment(Singapore,Vietnam,NorthKorea,
andChina),andnineMuslimcountries(Malaysia,Indonesia,Pakistan,Iran,Iraq,
Syria,Yemen,Sudan,andLibya).TheleadershipofthisAsianlslamicgroupingcame
fromChina,Syria,andIran.InbetweenthesetwogroupingsweretheLatin
Americancountries,apartfromCuba,whichoftensupportedtheWest,andAfrican
andOrthodoxcountrieswhichsometimessupportedbutmoreoftenopposed
Westernpositions.
Theissuesonwhichcountriesdividedalongcivilizationallinesincluded:universality
vs.culturalrelativismwithrespecttohumanrightstherelativepriorityofeconomic
andsocialrightsincludingtherighttodevelopmentversuspoliticalandcivilrights
politicalconditionalitywithrespecttoeconomicassistancethecreationofaU.N.
CommissionerforHumanRightstheextenttowhichthenongovernmentalhuman
16/26
3/8/2016
rightsorganizationssimultaneouslymeetinginViennashouldbeallowedto
participateinthegovernmentalconferencetheparticularrightswhichshouldbe
endorsedbytheconferenceandmorespecificissuessuchaswhethertheDalai
Lamashouldbeallowedtoaddresstheconferenceandwhetherhumanrights
abusesinBosniashouldbeexplicitlycondemned.
MajordifferencesexistedbetweentheWesterncountriesandtheAsianlslamicbloc
ontheseissues.TwomonthsbeforetheViennaconferencetheAsiancountriesmet
inBangkokandendorsedadeclarationwhichemphasizedthathumanrightsmust
beconsidered"inthecontext...ofnationalandregionalparticularitiesandvarious
historicalreligiousandculturalbackgrounds,"thathumanrightsmonitoring
violatedstatesovereignty,andthatconditioningeconomicassistanceonhuman
rightsperformancewascontrarytotherighttodevelopment.Thedifferencesover
theseandotherissuesweresogreatthatalmosttheentiredocumentproducedby
thefinalpreViennaconferencepreparatorymeetinginGenevainearlyMaywasin
brackets,indicatingdissentsbyoneormorecountries.
TheWesternnationswereillpreparedforVienna,wereoutnumberedatthe
conference,andduringitsproceedingsmademoreconcessionsthantheir
opponents.Asaresult,apartfromastrongendorsementofwomen'srights,the
declarationapprovedbytheconferencewasaminimalone.Itwas,onehuman
rightssupporterobserved,"aflawedandcontradictory"document,andrepresented
avictoryfortheAsianlslamiccoalitionandadefeatfortheWest.TheVienna
declarationcontainednoexplicitendorsementoftherightstofreedomofspeech,
thepress,assembly,andreligion,andwasthusinmanyrespectsweakerthanthe
UniversalDeclarationofHumanRightstheU.N.hadadoptedin1948.Thisshift
reflectedthedeclineinthepoweroftheWest."Theinternationalhumanrights
regimeof1945,"anAmericanhumanrightssupporterremarked,"isnomore.
Americanhegemonyhaseroded.Europe,evenwiththeeventsof1992,islittlemore
thanapeninsula.TheworldisnowasArab,Asian,andAfrican,asitisWestern.
TodaytheUniversalDeclarationofHumanRightsandtheInternationalCovenants
arelessrelevanttomuchoftheplanetthanduringtheimmediatepostWorldWar
IIera."AnAsiancriticoftheWesthadsimilarviews:"Forthefirsttimesincethe
UniversalDeclarationwasadoptedin1948,countriesnotthoroughlysteepedinthe
JudeoChristianandnaturallawtraditionsareinthefirstrank.Thatunprecedented
situationwilldefinethenewinternationalpoliticsofhumanrights.Itwillalso
multiplytheoccasionsforconflict."
"Thebigwinner"atVienna,anotherobservercommented,"clearly,wasChina,at
leastifsuccessismeasuredbytellingotherpeopletogetoutoftheway.Beijing
keptwinningthroughoutthemeetingsimplybytossingitsweightaround."t9
OutvotedandoutmaneuveredatVienna,theWestwasnonethelessableafew
monthslatertoscoreanotinsignificantvictoryagainstChina.Securingthe2000
summerOlympicsforBeijingwasamajorgoaloftheChinesegovernment,which
investedtremendousresourcesintryingtoachieveit.InChinatherewasimmense
publicityabouttheOlympicbidandpublicexpectationswerehighthegovernment
lobbiedothergovernmentstopressuretheirOlympicassociationsTaiwanandHong
Kongjoinedinthecampaign.Ontheotherside,theUnitedStatesCongress,the
17/26
3/8/2016
EuropeanParliament,andhumanrightsorganizationsallvigorouslyopposed
selectingBeijing.AlthoughvotingintheInternationalOlympicCommitteeisby
secretballot,itclearlywasalongcivilizationallines.Onthefirstballot,Beijing,with
reportedlywidespreadAfricansupport,wasinfirstplacewithSydneyinsecond.On
subsequentballots,whenIstanbulwaseliminated,theConfucianlslamic
connectionbroughtitsvotesoverwhelminglytoBeijingwhenBerlinand
Manchesterwereeliminated,theirvoteswentoverwhelminglytoSydney,givingit
victoryonthefourthballotandimposingahumiliatingdefeatonChina,whichit
blamedsquarelyontheUnitedStates."AmericaandBritain,"LeeKuanYew
commented,"succeededincuttingChinadowntosize....Theapparentreasonwas
'humanrights.'Therealreasonwaspolitical,toshowWesternpoliticalclout."
Undoubtedlymanymorepeopleintheworldareconcernedwithsportsthanwith
humanrights,butgiventhedefeatsonhumanrightstheWestsufferedatVienna
andelsewhere,thisisolateddemonstrationofWestern"clout"wasalsoareminder
ofWesternweakness.
NotonlyisWesterncloutdiminished,buttheparadoxofdemocracyalsoweakens
WesternwilltopromotedemocracyinthepostColdWarworld.DuringtheCold
WartheWestandtheUnitedStatesinparticularconfrontedthe"friendlytyrant"
problem:thedilemmasofcooperatingwithmilitaryjuntasanddictatorswhowere
anticommunistandhenceusefulpartnersintheColdWar.Suchcooperation
produceduneasinessandattimesembarrassmentwhentheseregimesengagedin
outrageousviolationsofhumanrights.Cooperationcould,however,bejustifiedas
thelesserevil:thesegovernmentswereusuallylessthoroughlyrepressivethan
communistregimesandcouldbeexpectedtobelessdurableaswellasmore
susceptibletoAmericanandotheroutsideinfluences.Whynotworkwithaless
brutalfriendlytyrantifthealternativewasamorebrutalunfriendlyone?Inthe
postColdWarworldthechoicecanbethemoredifficultonebetweenafriendly
tyrantandanunfriendlydemocracy.TheWest'seasyassumptionthat
democraticallyelectedgovernmentswillbecooperativeandproWesternneednot
holdtrueinnonWesternsocietieswhereelectoralcompetitioncanbringanti
Westernnationalistsandfundamentaliststopower.TheWestwasrelievedwhen
theAlgerianmilitaryintervenedin1992andcanceledtheelectionwhichthe
fundamentalistFISclearlywasgoingtowin.Westerngovernmentsalsowere
reassuredwhenthefundamentalistWelfarePartyinTurkeyandthenationalistBJP
inIndiawereexcludedfrompowerafterscoringelectoralvictoriesin1995and
1996.Ontheotherhand,withinthecontextofitsrevolutionIraninsomerespects
hasoneofthemoredemocraticregimesintheIslamicworld,andcompetitive
electionsinmanyArabcountriesincludingSaudiArabiaandEgyptwouldalmost
surelyproducegovernmentsfarlesssympathetictoWesternintereststhantheir
undemocraticpredecessors.ApopularlyelectedgovernmentinChinacouldwellbe
ahighlynationalisticone.AsWesternleadersrealizethatdemocraticprocessesin
nonWesternsocietiesoftenproducegovernmentsunfriendlytotheWest,theyboth
attempttoinfluencethoseelectionsandalsolosetheirenthusiasmforpromoting
democracyinthosesocieties.
p212
TheeffectiveendofWesternterritorialimperialismandtheabsencesofarof
18/26
3/8/2016
renewedMuslimterritorialexpansionhaveproducedageographicalsegregationso
thatonlyinafewplacesintheBalkansdoWesternandMuslimcommunities
directlyborderoneachother.ConflictsbetweentheWestandIslamthusfocusless
onterritorythanonbroaderintercivilizationalissuessuchasweaponsproliferation,
humanrightsanddemocracy,controlofoil,migration,Islamistterrorism,and
Westernintervention.
InthewakeoftheColdWar,theincreasingintensityofthishistoricalantagonism
hasbeenwidelyrecognizedbymembersofbothcommunities.In1991,forinstance,
BarryBuzansawmanyreasonswhyasocietalcoldwarwasemerging"betweenthe
WestandIslam,inwhichEuropewouldbeonthefrontline.
Thisdevelopmentispartlytodowithsecularversusreligiousvalues,partlytodo
withthehistoricalrivalrybetweenChristendomandIslam,partlytodoIwith
jealousyofWesternpower,partlytodowithresentmentsoverWestern|
dominationofthepostcolonialpoliticalstructuringoftheMiddleEast,andpartlyto
dowiththebitternessandhumiliationoftheinvidiouscomparisonbetweenthe
accomplishmentsofIslamicandWesterncivilizationsinthelasttwocenturies.
Inaddition,henoteda"societalColdWarwithIslamwouldservetostrengthenthe
EuropeanidentityallroundatacrucialtimefortheprocessofEuropeanunion."
Hence,theremaywellbeasubstantialcommunityintheWestpreparednotonlyto
supportasocietalColdWarwithIslam,buttoadoptpoliciesthatencourageit."In
1990BernardLewis,aleadingWesternscholarofIslam,analyzed"TheRootsof
MuslimRage,"andconcluded:
Itshouldnowbeclearthatwearefacingamoodandamovementfartranscending
thelevelofissuesandpoliciesandthegovernmentsthatpursuethem.Thisisno
lessthanaclashofcivilizationsthatperhapsirrationalbutsurelyhistoricreaction
ofanancientrivalagainstourJudeoChristianheritage,oursecularpresent,andthe
worldwideexpansionofboth.Itiscruciallyimportantthatweonoursideshould
notbeprovokedintoanequallyhistoricbutalsoequallyirrationalreactionagainst
thatrival.
SimilarobservationscamefromtheIslamiccommunity."Thereareunmistakable
signs,"arguedaleadingEgyptianjournalist,MohammedSidAhmed,in1994,"ofa
growingclashbetweentheJudeoChristianWesternethicandtheIslamicrevival
movement,whichisnowstretchingfromtheAtlanticinthewesttoChinainthe
east."AprominentIndianMuslimpredictedin1992thattheWest's"next
confrontationisdefinitelygoingtocomefromtheMuslimworld.Itisinthesweep
oftheIslamicnationsfromtheMaghrebtoPakistanthatthestruggleforanew
worldorderwillbegin."ForaleadingTunisianlawyer,thestrugglewasalready
underway:"ColonialismtriedtodeformalltheculturaltraditionsofIslam.Iamnot
anIslamist.Idon'tthinkthereisaconflictbetweenreligions.Thereisaconflict
betweencivilizations."
Inthe1980sand1990stheoveralltrendinIslamhasbeeninanantiWestern
19/26
3/8/2016
direction.Inpart,thisisthenaturalconsequenceoftheIslamicResurgenceandthe
reactionagainsttheperceived"gharbzadegi"orWestoxicationofMuslimsocieties.
The"reaffirmationofIslam,whateveritsspecificsectarianform,meansthe
repudiationofEuropeanandAmericaninfluenceuponlocalsociety,politics,and
morals."Onoccasioninthepast,Muslimleadersdidtelltheirpeople:"Wemust
Westernize."IfanyMuslimleaderhassaidthatinthelastquarterofthetwentieth
century,however,heisalonelyfigure.Indeed,itishardtofindstatementsbyany
Muslims,whetherpoliticians,officials,academics,businesspersons,orjournalists,
praisingWesternvaluesandinstitutions.Theyinsteadstressthedifferences
betweentheircivilizationandWesterncivilization,thesuperiorityoftheirculture,
andtheneedtomaintaintheintegrityofthatcultureagainstWesternonslaught.
MuslimsfearandresentWesternpowerandthethreatwhichthisposestotheir
societyandbeliefs.TheyseeWesterncultureasmaterialistic,corrupt,decadent,
andimmoral.Theyalsoseeitasseductive,andhencestressallthemoretheneed
toresistitsimpactontheirwayoflife.Increasingly,MuslimsattacktheWestnot
foradheringtoanimperfect,erroneousreligion,whichisnonethelessa"religionof
thebook,"butfornotadheringtoanyreligionatall.InMuslimeyesWestern
secularism,irreligiosity,andhenceimmoralityareworseevilsthantheWestern
Christianitythatproducedthem.IntheColdWartheWestlabeleditsopponent
"godlesscommunism"inthepostColdWarconflictofcivilizationsMuslimssee
theiropponentas"thegodlessWest."
TheseimagesoftheWestasarrogant,materialistic,repressive,brutal,and
decadentareheldnotonlybyfundamentalistimamsbutalsobythosewhommany
intheWestwouldconsidertheirnaturalalliesandsupporters.FewbooksbyMuslim
authorspublishedinthe1990sintheWestreceivedthepraisegiventoFatima
Mernissi'sIslamandDemocracy,generallyhailedbyWesternersasthecourageous
statementofamodern,liberal,femaleMuslim.TheportrayaloftheWestinthat
volume,however,couldhardlybelessflattering.TheWestis"militaristic"and
"imperialistic"andhas"traumatized"othernationsthrough"colonialterror"(pp.3,
9).Individualism,thehallmarkofWesternculture,is"thesourceofalltrouble"(p.
8).Westernpowerisfearful.TheWest"alonedecidesifsatelliteswillbeusedto
educateArabsortodropbombsonthem....Itcrushesourpotentialitiesand
invadesourliveswithitsimportedproductsandtelevisedmoviesthatswampthe
airwaves....[It]isapowerthatcrushesus,besiegesourmarkets,andcontrolsour
merestresources,initiatives,andpotentialities.Thatwashowweperceivedour
situation,andtheGulfWarturnedourperceptionintocertitude"(pp.14647).The
West"createsitspowerthroughmilitaryresearch"andthensellstheproductsof
thatresearchtounderdevelopedcountrieswhoareits"passiveconsumers."To
liberatethemselvesfromthissubservience,Islammustdevelopitsownengineers
andscientists,builditsownweapons(whethernuclearorconventional,shedoes
notspecify),and"freeitselffrommilitarydependenceontheWest"(pp.4344).
These,torepeat,arenottheviewsofabearded,hoodedayatollah.
p217
Duringthefifteenyearsbetween1980and1995,accordingtotheU.S.Defense
Department,theUnitedStatesengagedinseventeenmilitaryoperationsinthe
MiddleEast,allofthemdirectedagainstMuslims.
20/26
3/8/2016
p238
China'sConfucianheritage,withitsemphasisonauthority,order,hierarchy,andthe
supremacyofthecollectivityovertheindividual,createsobstaclesto
democratization.
p238
CIVILIZATIONSANDCORESTATES:EMERGINGALIGNMENTS
ThepostColdWar,multipolar,multicivilizationalworldlacksanoverwhelmingly
dominantcleavagesuchasexistedintheColdWar.SolongastheMuslim
demographicandAsianeconomicsurgescontinue,however,theconflictsbetween
theWestandthechallengercivilizationswillbemorecentraltoglobalpoliticsthan
otherlinesofcleavage.ThegovernmentsofMuslimcountriesarelikelytocontinue
tobecomelessfriendlytotheWest,andintermittentlowintensityandattimes
perhapshighintensityviolencewilloccurbetweenIslamicgroupsandWestern
societies.RelationsbetweentheUnitedStates,ontheonehand,andChina,Japan,
andotherAsiancountrieswillbehighlyconflictual,andamajorwarcouldoccurif
theUnitedStateschallengesChina'sriseasthehegemonicpowerinAsia.
Undertheseconditions,theConfucianlslamicconnectionwillcontinueandperhaps
broadenanddeepen.CentraltothisconnectionhasbeenthecooperationofMuslim
andSinicsocietiesopposingtheWestonweaponsproliferation,humanrights,and
otherissues.AtitscorehavebeenthecloserelationsamongPakistan,Iran,and
China,whichcrystallizedinthe1990swiththevisitsofPresidentYangShangkunto
IranandPakistanandofPresidentRafsanjanitoPakistanandChina.These
"pointedtotheemergenceofanembryonicalliancebetweenPakistan,Iran,and
China."OnhiswaytoChina,Rafsanjanideclaredinlslamabadthat"astrategic
alliance"existedbetweenIranandPakistanandthatanattackonPakistanwould
beconsideredanattackonIran.Reinforcingthispattern,BenazirBhuttovisited
IranandChinaimmediatelyafterbecomingprimeministerinOctober1993.The
cooperationamongthethreecountrieshasincludedregularexchangesamong
political,military,andbureaucraticofficialsandjointeffortsinavarietyofciviland
militaryareasincludingdefenseproduction,inadditiontotheweaponstransfers
fromChinatotheotherstates.Thedevelopmentofthisrelationshiphasbeen
stronglysupportedbythoseinPakistanbelongingtothe"independence"and
"Muslim"schoolsofthoughtonforeignpolicywholookedforwardtoa"Tehran
lslamabadBeijingaxis,"whileinTehranitwasarguedthatthe"distinctivenature
ofthecontemporaryworld"required"closeandconsistentcooperation"among
Iran,China,Pakistan,andKazakhstan.Bythemid1990ssomethinglikeadefacto
alliancehadcomeintoexistenceamongthethreecountriesrootedinoppositionto
theWest,securityconcernsoverIndia,andthedesiretocounterTurkishand
RussianinfluenceinCentralAsia.
Arethesethreestateslikelytobecomethecoreofabroadergroupinginvolving
otherMuslimandAsiancountries?Aninformal"Confucianlslamistalliance,"
GrahamFullerargues,"couldmaterialize,notbecauseMuhammadandConfucius
areantiWestbutbecausetheseculturesofferavehiclefortheexpressionof
21/26
3/8/2016
grievancesforwhichtheWestispartlyblamedaWestwhosepolitical,military,
economicandculturaldominanceincreasinglyranklesinaworldwherestatesfeel
'theydon'thavetotakeitanymore.''Themostpassionatecallforsuchcooperation
camefromMu'ammaralQadhafi,whoinMarch1994declared:
ThenewworldordermeansthatJewsandChristianscontrolMuslimsandifthey
can,theywillafterthatdominateConfucianismandotherreligionsinIndia,China,
andJapan....
WhattheChristiansandJewsarenowsaying:Weweredeterminedtocrush
CommunismandtheWestmustnowcrushIslamandConfucianism.
NowwehopetoseeaconfrontationbetweenChinathatheadstheConfucianist
campandAmericathatheadstheChristiancrusadercamp.Wehaveno
justificationsbuttobebiasedagainstthecrusaders.Wearestandingwith
Confucianism,andbyallyingourselveswithitandfightingalongsideitinone
internationalfront,wewilleliminateourmutualopponent.
So,weasMuslims,willsupportChinainitsstruggleagainstourmutualenemy....
WewishChinavictory....
p303
Civilizationsgrow,[Carroll]Quigleyarguedin1961,becausetheyhavean
"instrumentofexpansion,"thatis,amilitary,religious,political,oreconomic
organizationthataccumulatessurplusandinvestsitinproductiveinnovations.
Civilizationsdeclinewhentheystopthe"applicationofsurplustonewwaysof
doingthings.Inmoderntermswesaythattherateofinvestmentdecreases.This
happensbecausethesocialgroupscontrollingthesurplushaveavestedinterestin
usingitfor"nonproductivebutegosatisfyingpurposes...whichdistributethe
surplusestoconsumptionbutdonotprovidemoreeffectivemethodsof
production."Peopleliveofftheircapitalandthecivilizationmovesfromthestageof
theuniversalstatetothestageofdecay.Thisisaperiodof
acuteeconomicdepression,decliningstandardsofliving,civilwarsbetweenthe
variousvestedinterests,andgrowingilliteracy.Thesocietygrowsweakerand
weaker.Vaineffortsaremadetostopthewastagebylegislation.Butthedecline
continues.Thereligious,intellectual,social,andpoliticallevelsofthesocietybegan
tolosetheallegianceofthemassesofthepeopleonalargescale.Newreligious
movementsbegintosweepoverthesociety.Thereisagrowingreluctancetofight
forthesocietyoreventosupportitbypayingtaxes.
p305
AmoreimmediateanddangerouschallengeexistsintheUnitedStates.Historically
AmericannationalidentityhasbeendefinedculturallybytheheritageofWestern
civilizationandpoliticallybytheprinciplesoftheAmericanCreedonwhich
Americansoverwhelminglyagree:liberty,democracy,individualism,equalitybefore
22/26
3/8/2016
thelaw,constitutionalism,privateproperty.Inthetwentiethcenturyboth
componentsofAmericanidentityhavecomeunderconcentratedandsustained
onslaughtfromasmallbutinfluentialnumberofintellectualsandpublicists.Inthe
nameofmulticulturalismtheyhaveattackedtheidentificationoftheUnitedStates
withWesterncivilization,deniedtheexistenceofacommonAmericanculture,and
promotedracial,ethnic,andothersubnationalculturalidentitiesandgroupings.
Theyhavedenounced,inthewordsofoneoftheirreports,the"systematicbias
towardEuropeancultureanditsderivatives"ineducationand"thedominanceof
theEuropeanAmericanmonoculturalperspective."Themulticulturalistsare,as
ArthurM.Schlesinger,Jr.,said,"veryoftenethnocentricseparatistswhoseelittlein
theWesternheritageotherthanWesterncrimes."Their"moodisoneofdivesting
AmericansofthesinfulEuropeaninheritanceandseekingredemptiveinfusionsfrom
nonWesterncultures."
Themulticulturaltrendwasalsomanifestedinavarietyoflegislationthatfollowed
thecivilrightsactsofthe1960s,andinthe1990stheClintonadministrationmade
theencouragementofdiversityoneofitsmajorgoals.Thecontrastwiththepastis
striking.TheFoundingFatherssawdiversityasarealityandasaproblem:hence
thenationalmotto,epluribusunum,chosenbyacommitteeoftheContinental
CongressconsistingofBenjaminFranklin,ThomasJefferson,andJohnAdams.Later
politicalleaderswhoalsowerefearfulofthedangersofracial,sectional,ethnic,
economic,andculturaldiversity(which,indeed,producedthelargestwarofthe
centurybetween1815and1914),respondedtothecallof"bringustogether,"and
madethepromotionofnationalunitytheircentralresponsibility."Theone
absolutelycertainwayofbringingthisnationtoruin,ofpreventingallpossibilityof
itscontinuingasanationatall,"warnedTheodoreRoosevelt,"wouldbetopermitit
tobecomeatangleofsquabblingnationalities."Inthe1990s,however,theleaders
oftheUnitedStateshavenotonlypermittedthatbutassiduouslypromotedthe
diversityratherthantheunityofthepeopletheygovern.
...ThemulticulturalistsalsochallengedacentralelementoftheAmericanCreed,by
substitutingfortherightsofindividualstherightsofgroups,definedlargelyin
termsofrace,ethnicity,sex,andsexualpreference.TheCreed,GunnarMyrdalsaid
inthe1940s,reinforcingthecommentsofforeignobserversdatingfromHectorSt.
JohndeCrevecocurandAlexisdeTocqueville,hasbeen"thecementinthestructure
ofthisgreatanddisparatenation.""Ithasbeenourfateasanation,"Richard
Hofstaderagreed,"nottohaveideologiesbuttobeone."Whathappensthentothe
UnitedStatesifthatideologyisdisavowedbyasignificantportionofitscitizens?
ThefateoftheSovietUnion,theothermajorcountrywhoseunity,evenmorethan
thatoftheUnitedStates,wasdefinedinideologicaltermsisasoberingexamplefor
Americans."[T]hetotalfailureofMarxism...andthedramaticbreakupofthe
SovietUnion,"theJapanesephilosopherTakeshiUmeharahassuggested,"areonly
theprecursorstothecollapseofWesternliberalism,themaincurrentofmodernity.
FarfrombeingthealternativetoMarxismandthereigningideologyattheendof
history,liberalismwillbethenextdominotofall."Inanerainwhichpeoples
everywheredefinethemselvesinculturaltermswhatplaceisthereforasociety
withoutaculturalcoreanddefinedonlybyapoliticalcreed?Politicalprinciplesare
aficklebaseonwhichtobuildalastingcommunity.Inamulticivilizationalworld
23/26
3/8/2016
whereculturecounts,theUnitedStatescouldbesimplythelastanomalous
holdoverfromafadingWesternworldwhereideologycounted.
RejectionoftheCreedandofWesterncivilizationmeanstheendoftheUnited
StatesofAmericaaswehaveknownit.ItalsomeanseffectivelytheendofWestern
civilization.IftheUnitedStatesisdeWesternized,theWestisreducedtoEurope
andafewlightlypopulatedoverseasEuropeansettlercountries.WithouttheUnited
StatestheWestbecomesaminusculeanddecliningpartoftheworld'spopulation
onasmallandinconsequentialpeninsulaattheextremityoftheEurasianland
mass.
TheclashbetweenthemulticulturalistsandthedefendersofWesterncivilization
andtheAmericanCreedis,inJamesKurth'sphrase,"therealclash"withinthe
AmericansegmentofWesterncivilization.Americanscannotavoidtheissue:Arewe
aWesternpeopleorarewesomethingelse?ThefuturesoftheUnitedStatesandof
theWestdependuponAmericansreaffirmingtheircommitmenttoWestern
civilization.Domesticallythismeansrejectingthedivisivesirencallsof
multiculturalism.InternationallyitmeansrejectingtheelusiveandillusorycalIto
identifytheUnitedStateswithAsia.Whatevereconomicconnectionsmayexist
betweenthem,thefundamentalculturalgapbetweenAsianandAmericansocieties
precludestheirjoiningtogetherinacommonhome.Americansareculturallypartof
theWesternfamily,multiculturalistsmaydamageandevendestroythat
relationshipbuttheycannotreplaceit.WhenAmericanslookfortheirculturalroots,
theyfindtheminEurope.
p310
Culture,aswehaveargued,followspower.IfnonWesternsocietiesareonceagain
tobeshapedbyWesternculture,itwillhappenonlyasaresultoftheexpansion,
deployment,andimpactofWesternpower.Imperialismisthenecessarylogical
consequenceofuniversals.Inaddition,asamaturingcivilization,theWestno
longerhastheeconomicordemographicdynamismrequiredtoimposeitswillon
othersocietiesandanyefforttodosoisalsocontrarytotheWesternvaluesofself
determinationanddemocracy.AsAsianandMuslimcivilizationsbeginmoreand
moretoasserttheuniversalrelevanceoftheircultures,Westernerswillcometo
appreciatemoreandmoretheconnectionbetweenuniversalsandimperialism.
Westernuniversalsisdangeroustotheworldbecauseitcouldleadtoamajor
intercivilizationalwarbetweencorestatesanditisdangeroustotheWestbecause
itcouldleadtodefeatoftheWest.WiththecollapseoftheSovietUnion,
Westernersseetheircivilizationinapositionofunparalleleddominance,whileat
thesametimeweakerAsian,Muslim,andothersocietiesarebeginningtogain
strength.
...Allcivilizationsgothoughsimilarprocessesofemergence,rise,anddecline.The
Westdiffersfromothercivilizationsnotinthewayithasdevelopedbutinthe
distinctivecharacterofitsvaluesandinstitutions.Theseincludemostnotablyits
Christianity,pluralism,individualism,andruleoflaw,whichmadeitpossibleforthe
24/26
3/8/2016
Westtoinventmodernity,expandthroughouttheworld,andbecometheenvyof
othersocieties.IntheirensemblethesecharacteristicsarepeculiartotheWest.
Europe,asArthurM.Schlesinger,Jr.,hassaid,is"thesourcetheuniquesourceof
the"ideasofindividualliberty,politicaldemocracy,theruleoflaw,humanrights,
andculturalfreedom....TheseareEuropeanideas,notAsian,norAfrican,norMiddle
Easternideas,exceptbyadoption."TheymakeWesterncivilizationunique,and
Westerncivilizationisvaluablenotbecauseitisuniversalbutbecauseitisunique.
TheprincipalresponsibilityofWesternleaders,consequently,isnottoattemptto
reshapeothercivilizationsmtheimageoftheWest,whichisbeyondtheirdeclining
power,buttopreserve,protect,andrenewtheuniquequalitiesofWestern
civilization.BecauseitisthemostpowerfulWesterncountry,thatresponsibility
fallsoverwhelminglyontheUnitedStatesofAmerica.
TopreserveWesterncivilizationinthefaceofdecliningWesternpower,itisinthe
interestoftheUnitedStatesandEuropeancountries:
*toachievegreaterpolitical,economic,andmilitaryintegrationandtocoordinate
theirpoliciessoastoprecludestatesfromothercivilizationsexploitingdifferences
amongthem
*toincorporateintotheEuropeanUnionandNATOtheWesternstatesofCentral
Europethatis,theVisegradcountries,theBalticrepublics,Slovenia,andCroatia
*toencouragethe"Westernization"ofLatinAmericaand,asfaraspossible,the
closealignmentofLatinAmericancountrieswiththeWest
*torestrainthedevelopmentoftheconventionalandunconventionalmilitary
powerofIslamicandSiniccountries
*toslowthedriftofJapanawayfromtheWestandtowardaccommodationwith
China
*toacceptRussiaasthecorestateofOrthodoxyandamajorregionalpowerwith
legitimateinterestsinthesecurityofitssouthernborders
*tomaintainWesterntechnologicalandmilitarysuperiorityoverothercivilizations
*and,mostimportant,torecognizethatWesterninterventionintheaffairsofother
civilizationsisprobablythesinglemostdangeroussourceofinstabilityand
potentialglobalconflictinamulticivilizationalworld.
IntheaftermathoftheColdWartheUnitedStatesbecameconsumedwithmassive
debatesoverthepropercourseofAmericanforeignpolicy.Inthisera,however,the
UnitedStatescanneitherdominatenorescapetheworld.Neitherinternationalism
norisolationism,neithermultilateralismnorunilateralism,willbestserveits
interests.Thosewillbestbeadvancedbyeschewingtheseopposingextremesand
insteadadoptinganAtlanticistpolicyofclosecooperationwithitsEuropean
25/26
3/8/2016
partnerstoprotectandadvancetheinterestsandvaluesoftheuniquecivilization
theyshare.
USandThirdWorld
HomePage
26/26

Clash of Civilizations by Samuel P. Huntington - SUMMARY EXCERPTS - Trilateral Commission

Uploaded by

Document Information

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Clash of Civilizations by Samuel P. Huntington - SUMMARY EXCERPTS - Trilateral Commission

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

3/8/2016

The Clash of Civilizations by Samuel P. Huntington

The Clash of Civilizations by Samuel P. Huntington

The Clash of Civilizations by Samuel P. Huntington

The Clash of Civilizations by Samuel P. Huntington

The Clash of Civilizations by Samuel P. Huntington

The Clash of Civilizations by Samuel P. Huntington

The Clash of Civilizations by Samuel P. Huntington

The Clash of Civilizations by Samuel P. Huntington

The Clash of Civilizations by Samuel P. Huntington

The Clash of Civilizations by Samuel P. Huntington

The Clash of Civilizations by Samuel P. Huntington

The Clash of Civilizations by Samuel P. Huntington

The Clash of Civilizations by Samuel P. Huntington

The Clash of Civilizations by Samuel P. Huntington

The Clash of Civilizations by Samuel P. Huntington

The Clash of Civilizations by Samuel P. Huntington

The Clash of Civilizations by Samuel P. Huntington

The Clash of Civilizations by Samuel P. Huntington

The Clash of Civilizations by Samuel P. Huntington

The Clash of Civilizations by Samuel P. Huntington

The Clash of Civilizations by Samuel P. Huntington

The Clash of Civilizations by Samuel P. Huntington

The Clash of Civilizations by Samuel P. Huntington

The Clash of Civilizations by Samuel P. Huntington

The Clash of Civilizations by Samuel P. Huntington

The Clash of Civilizations by Samuel P. Huntington

You might also like