Professional Documents
Culture Documents
PENGENDALIAN PRODUKSI
TIN 4113
Short Quiz
Berikan jawaban singkat:
Review materi 1:
Jelaskan ruang lingkup PPIC!
Mengapa PPIC diperlukan?
Apa yang membedakan posisi PPIC dalam struktur
organisasi perusahaan?
Persiapan materi 2:
Apa kegunaan dari peramalan?
Sebutkan 5 metode peramalan yang anda ketahui:
Jelaskan karakteristik masing-masing metode tersebut.
Sebutkan situasi yang tepat untuk menggunakan
masing-masing metode tersebut yang membedakan
metode satu dengan yang lain.
Pertemuan 2
Outline:
Karakteristik Peramalan
Cakupan Peramalan
Klasifikasi Peramalan
Metode Forecast: Time Series
Simple Time Series Models:
Moving Average (Simple & Weighted)
Exponential Smoothing (Single)
Referensi:
Smith, Spencer B., Computer Based Production and Inventory
Control, Prentice-Hall, 1989.
Tersine, Richard J., Principles of Inventory and Materials
Management, Prentice-Hall, 1994.
Vollmann, Berry, Whyback., Manufacturing Planning and Control
System 4th ed, Mc Graw-Hill, 1997.
Pujawan, Demand Forecasting Lecture Note, IE-ITS, 2011.
Cakupan Peramalan
Berdasarkan Kategori Tingkat Keputusan
Tingkat Kebijakan
Tingkat Produk
Tingkat Proses
Tingkat Desain Pabrik
Tingkat Operasional
Cakupan Peramalan
Berdasarkan Unit Bisnis
Perencanaan Keuangan
Perencanaan Pemasaran
Perencanaan Produksi
Perencanaan Penjadwalan
Characteristic of Forecasts
Forecast involves error >>> they are usually
wrong
Family forecast are more accurate than item
forecast. Aggregate forecasts are more
accurate.
Short-range forecasts are more accurate than
long-range forecasts
A good forecast is more than a single number.
Demand Management
Where possible, calculate demand rather than forecast.
If not possible...
Independent Demand
(finished goods and spare parts)
Dependent Demand
(components)
B(4)
D(2)
C(2)
E(1)
D(3)
F(2)
Demand
Estimates
Sales
Forecast
Production
Resource
Forecast
Long-Range
MediumRange
Short-Range
Time Span
Units of
Measure
Product lines
Factory capacities
Planning for new products
Capital expenditures
Facility location or expansion
R&D
Dollars, tons,
etc.
Months
Product groups
Department capacities
Sales planning
Production planning and
budgeting
Dollars, tons,
etc.
Weeks
Physical units
of products
Years
Klasifikasi Peramalan
Kualitatif
Sales force composite
Survey Pasar
Keputusan Manajemen (Jury of executive opinion)
The Delphi Method
Kuantitatif
Time series
Time Series
Selalu menggunakan data historis (Nave
methods)
Komponen time series:
Trend
Seasonality
Cycles
Randomness
Ft 1
Ft 1
1
( Dt Dt 1 Dt 1n )
n
1 t
Di
n i t 1n
Ft 1 ( wt Dt wt 1Dt 1 wt 1n Dt 1n )
Exponential Smoothing
New Forecast = (current observation of demand) +
(1-) (last forecast)
Or
Ft = (Dt) + (1-)Ft-1
And
Exponential Smoothing
Include all past observations
Weight recent observations much more heavily than
very old observations:
0 1
weight
(1 )
(1 ) 2
(1 )
today
Exponential Smoothing
Notes:
Only 2 values (Dt and Ft-1 ) are required, compared with n for moving
average
Parameter determined empirically (whatever works best)
Rule of thumb: < 0.5
= 0.1 to = 0.3
Ft k Ft
Exponential Smoothing
Example:
Exponential smoothing and a constant model are
being used for forecasting. The smoothed average
at the end of period zero was 80. The actual
demand in period 1 was 104. The smoothing
constant is 0,1. What is the forecast for period 2
made at the end of period 1?
Persamaan MA dan ES
Sama-sama mengasumsikan demand bersifat
stationary
Keduanya tergantung pada 1 nilai parameter,
N pada MA dan pada ES.
Kalau ada trend, kedua-duanya terlambat
dalam merespon
Keduanya akan menghasilkan distribusi error
yang sama apabila = 2 / (N+1)
Perbedaan MA dan ES
MA mengakomodasikan lebih banyak data
ES hanya menyimpan dua data: forecast
terakhir dan actual demand terakhir, sedang
MA menyimpan N data demand terakhir
Pertemuan 3 - Persiapan
Tugas Baca:
Metode Peramalan:
Simple Time Series Model:
Double Exponential Smoothing (Holts)
Winters Method for Seasonal Problems
Error Forecast
MAD
MSE
MAPE
MFE atau Bias