MATHEMATICAL METHODS, COMPUTATIONAL TECHNIQUES, NON-LINEAR SYSTEMS, INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS

Mathematical Regression Model for the Prediction of

Concrete Strength
M. F. M. Zain1, Suhad M. Abd1, K. Sopian2, M. Jamil1 , Che-Ani A.I1
1
Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment,
2
Solar Energy Research Institute,
Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia,
43600 UKM Bangi, Selangor Darul Ehsan,
Malaysia

Abstract: - In this study a new mathematical models were proposed and developed using non-linear
regression equation for the prediction of concrete compressive strength at different ages. The variables used
in the prediction models were from the knowledge of the mix itself, i.e. mix proportion elements. According
to the analysis the models provide good estimation of compressive strength and yielded good correlations
with the data used in this study. The correlation coefficients were 0.995 and 0.994 for the prediction of 7 and
28 days compressive strength respectively. Moreover, the proposed models proved to be significant tool in
prediction compressive strength of different concretes in spite of variations in the results.
Key-Words: - mathematical model, statistical analysis, compressive strength, strength prediction, concrete
attempts have been made to obtain a suitable
mathematical model which is capable of predicting
strength of concrete at various ages with acceptable
(high) accuracy [4].

1 Introduction
Concrete is such a construction material that is
widely used in the world. The advantages of
concrete are low cost, availability of construction,
workability, durability and convenient compressive
strength that make it popular near engineers and
builders. However, these advantages seriously
depend on the correct mix, placing and curing [1]. In
construction industry, strength is a primary criterion
in selecting a concrete for a particular application.
Concrete used for construction gains strength over a
long period of time after pouring .the characteristic
strength of concrete is defined as the compressive
strength of a sample that has been aged for 28 days
[2].
Neither waiting 28 days from such a test would
serve the rapidity of construction, nor neglecting it,
would serve the quality control process on concrete
in large construction sites. Therefore, rapid and
reliable prediction for the strength of concrete
would be of great significance [3]. For example, it
provide a chance to do the necessary adjustment on
the mix proportion used to avoid situation where
concrete does not reach the required design strength
or by avoiding concrete that is unnecessarily strong,
and also, for more economic use of raw materials
and fewer construction failures, hence reducing
construction cost .
Prediction of concrete strength, therefore, has
been an active area of research and a Considerable
number of studies have been carried out. Many

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2 Statistical Analysis for Strength

Prediction
The strengthening of concrete is a complex process
involving many external factors. A number of
improved prediction techniques have been proposed
by including empirical or computational modeling,
statistical techniques and artificial intelligence
approaches. Many attempts have been made for
modeling this process through the used of
computational techniques such as finite element
analysis. While, a number of research efforts have
concentrated on using multivariable regression
models to improve the accuracy of predictions.
Statistical models have the attraction that once
fitted they can be used to perform predictions much
more quickly than other modeling techniques, and
are correspondingly simpler to implement in
software.
S. Popovics [5], augments Abrams model, a
widely accepted equation relating the water cement
ratio w/c of concrete to its strength with additional
variables such as slump, and uses least square
regression to determine equation coefficients.
Using this approach improved strength prediction
and insights into concrete compositions were
achieved. M. Nagesha et al. [2], used multivariable

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regression techniques on concrete composition data

to predict 28 days compressive strength with
reasonable accuracy, proposing a formula readily
applicable for on-site use.
Apart of its speed, statistical modeling has
the advantage over other techniques that it is
mathematically rigorous and can be used to define
confidence interval for the predictions. This is
especially true when comparing statistical modeling
with artificial intelligence techniques. Statistical
analysis can also provide insight into the key
factors influencing 28 days compressive strength
through correlation analysis. For these reasons
statistical analysis was chosen to be technique for
strength prediction of this paper [2].

Table 2: Chemical composition of OPC

Table 3: Details For Mix Proportions

Mix
No
1

3 Experimental Program
Physical properties of the materials used in this
study are shown in Table (1). Locally produced
ordinary Portland cement (OPC) was used. It has a
specific gravity of 3.1 and specific surface of 3500
m2/kg. Fineness modulus was 2.82 for fine
aggregate. The coarse aggregate was 20 mm
maximum size crushed stone; its specific gravity
was 2.7. No admixtures or additives were used in
this study only the ordinary constituents of concrete
(cement, sand, gravel, water) to study the effect of
the ordinary mix proportion on the compressive
strength of concrete.
Since the aim of this study is studying the
effect of mix proportions on the compressive
strength of concrete ,different mixes were used .The
details of all mix proportions are shown in Table
(3). Compressive strength test was performed and
evaluated in accordance to BS 1881: Part 116:1983.
Specimens were immersed in water until the day of
testing at 3, 7, 28 days. Table (3) show the
compressive strength test results. Table 4 shows the
results of compressive strength test at the age of 3,
7 and 28 days

Water
Kg/m3

Cem
Kg/m3

Sand
Kg/m3

Agg
Kg/m3

w/c

Density
Kg/m3

180

400

600

1200

0.45

2333.2
2323.2

195

390

588

1170

0.5

209

380

570

1140

0.55

2310

222

370

555

1110

0.6

2300
2293.6

234

360

540

1080

0.65

245

350

525

1050

0.7

2275.5

146

325

650

1300

0.45

2268
2244

160

320

640

1280

0.5

173

315

630

1260

0.55

2234
2203

10

186

310

620

1240

0.6

11

198

305

610

1220

0.65

2176

12

210

300

600

1200

0.7

2148
2430

13

233

517

517

1034

0.45

14

252

504

504

1008

0.5

2421

15

270

491

491

982

0.55

2378
2374

16

287

479

479

958

0.6

17

304

468

468

936

0.65

2356

914

0.7

2352

18

320

457

Materials

Properties
Specific Gravity: 3.1
Specific surface (by Blain) : 3500
cm2\g

Fine Aggregate
(FA):
Sand (S)

Specific Gravity: 2.60

Fineness Modulus: 2.34

Coarse Aggregate
(CA):
Crushed Stone

Specific Gravity: 2.7

Maximum particle size: 20 mm

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457

Table 4: Compressive Strength for the

Concrete at 3, 7 and 28 Days
Mix no.

Density
(Kg/m3)

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

2333.25
2323.2
2310
2300
2293.6
2275.5
2268
2244
2234
2203
2176
2148

Table 1: Physical Properties of Materials

Cement (C)
Ordinary Portland
Cement (OPC)

(%)
22.1
5.96
3.04
61.5
2.5
0.16
1.50
1.10
0.85

Oxide
Silicon dioxide (SiO2)
Aluminum Trioxide (Al2O3)
Ferric oxide (Fe2O3)
Calcium oxide (CaO)
Magnesium oxide (MgO)
Sodium oxide (Na2O)
Loss on ignition (L.O.I)
Insoluble residue (I.R)
Lime saturation factor (L.S.F)

397

Compressive strength
(MPa)
3
7
28
days days
days
17.9
24.5
34
17.4
22.5
32.5
16.3
21.6
32.5
16.1
21.5
32.3
15
21.1
30.5
14.6
20.4
30.3
14.1
20.3
29.2
14.1
20
28.9
13.9
18.5
27.7
13.7
17.6
25.9
13.2
17.3
24.5
12.3
14.6
23.8

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13
14
15
16
17
18

2430
2421
2378
2374
2356
2352

26.1
23
21.4
19.6
19.5
18.4

31
29.9
28.3
26.7
25.8
25.7

strength in order to have more reliable and accurate

results for the prediction of concrete strength.
So, Eq. 1 which reffered to Abrams Law was
extended to include other variables in the form of
multiple linear regression equation and used widely
to predict the compressive strength of various types
of concrete as below:

44
39.4
37.5
36.1
35.2
34.6

Modelling the Prediction of

Compressive Strength of Concrete

f = b0 + b1 w / c

.........................................Eq.1
linear least square regression (reffered to Abram)

The most popular regression equation used in

prediction of compressive strength prediction is:

f = b0 + b1 w / c

f = b0 + b1 w / c + b2 CA + b3 FA + C ...............Eq.4

.................................Eq.1

multiple linear regession

Where:
:
compressive strength of concrete
w/c: water/cement ratio
C:
quantity of cement in the mix
CA: quantity of coarse aggregate in the mix
FA: quantity of fine aggregate in the mix

where:
:
compressive strength of concrete
w/c:
water/cement ratio
b0,b1: coefficients
The previous equation is the linear regression
equation .The origin of this equation is Abrams
Law [5] which relate compressive strength of
concrete to the w/c ratio of the mix and according to
this law, increasing w/c ratio will definitely lead to
decrease in concrete strength. The original formula
for Abram is:

f =

A
Bw/c

According to Eq. 4 all the variables related to

the compressive strength in a linear fashion, but this
is not always true because the variables involved in
a concrete mix and affecting its compressive
strength are interrelated with each other and the
additive action is not always true. Here, it appears
that there is a need to another type of mathematical
model can reliably predicts strength of concrete
with acceptable high accuracy. So, if we took the
general form of the multiple linear regressions as
below;

.............................................Eq.2

where:
:
compressive strength of concrete
A, B: empirical constants
Lyse [6] made a formula similar to Abram but he
relate compressive strength to cement /water ratio
and not water /cement ratio. According to Lyse
strength of concrete increase linearly with increasing
c/w ratio .the general form of this popular model
was:

f = A+ Bc/ w

......................

Y = a0 + a1 X 1 + a 2 X 2 + a3 X 3 + ....a m X m
......... multiple linear regression (Eq.4)
For situations where the multiple
dependency is curvilinear (non-linear) the
logarithmic transformation can be applied
to this type of regression [7]:

........Eq.3

Where:
:
compressive strength of concrete
c/w:
cement /water ratio
A, B: empirical constants

log( y ) = log( a 0 ) + a1 log( X 1 ) + a 2 log( X 2 ) + a 3 log( X 3 ) + .......a m log( X m )

.......................................................Eq.5

The quantities of cement,fine aggregate and

coarse aggreagate were not included in the model
and not accounted for the prediction of concrete
strength.So, for various concrete mixes were their
w/c ratio is constant ,the strength will be the same
and this is not true.Therefore, efforts should be
concenerate on models taken into account the
influence of mix constituents on the concrete

This equation could be transform back to a

form that predicts the dependent variable (Y)
by taking the antilogarithimto yeild an
equation of the type:

Y = a 0 X 1a1 . X

a2
2

. X 3a 3 ....... X

am
m

..Eq.6

This eq. called the multivariable power eq. and in

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engineering, variables are often dependent on

several independent variables, this functional
dependency is best characterized by the equation
mentioned earlier, and is said to give results that
are more realistic too. In this study, the
multivariable power equation was found to be very
suitable for prediction strength of concrete (as a
dependent variable). Factors affecting this strength
were the elements of the concrete mix itself.

Results And Discussion

It is very important to analyze the effect of mix

constituents on strength of concrete. Mix design is a
specific combination of raw materials that are used
in a particular concrete to reach a given target
strength. So the significant factor in 28 days
compressive strength is the concrete composition.
Concrete theory suggested that water to cement ratio
(w/c) of concrete is a primary factor influencing the
strengthening process, both the final strength and the
rate of hardening are affected [2]. Also, it is well
known that decreasing water content increases
strength for the concrete. This explanation is well
represented in Figure (1) which shows the
relationship between the 28 days compressive
strength and the water to cement ratio (w/c) for the
concrete used in this study. Conventionally, strength
is related to density and the denser the concrete the
higher the strength as shown in figure (2).
Furthermore, strength of concrete is highly affected
by cement content and amount of fine and coarse
aggregate used in the mix as well as any other
aditional material added to the mix in order to
improve specific property for the concrete like fly
ash, silica fume and slag or admixture like
superplasticizer.

Fig. 2 Relationship Between 28 Days Compressive

Strength and Density
Table (4) shows the relatioship between the
compressive strength at the age of 7 and 28 days
with the variables provided from the experimental
work and are going to be used in the proposed
model. This relationship is represented by the
correlation coefficient between each variable and
each strength.From this table, it can be seen that
some variables have significant correlation with the
predicted strength at the specified age.The highest
correlations were density followed by the cement
content in the mix.
Table 5. Correlations between 7&28 Days
compressive Strength and Variables Used in the
Proposed Model
Variable

7 Days
Compressive
Strength

28 Days
Compressive
Strength

Water/cement(w/c)
Water (W)
Cement (C)
Sand (FA)
Aggregate (CA)
Density ()

0.379
0.580
0.970
0.723
0.723
0.98

0.41
0.538
0.95
0.680
0.683
0.986

After analyzing the influence of mix constituent on

the strength at the age of 7 and 28 days, the proposed
model was used to predict compressive strength at
the specified ages comprises all the variables
mentioned earlier.The final form of the proposed
strength prediction model for both ages was:
7 = a 0C

a1

.W

28 = a 0 C a1 .W

Fig. 1 Relationship Between 28 Days Compressive

Strength and (w/c) Ratio

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a2

a2

. FA

. FA

a3

a3

.CA

.CA

a4

a4

.
a5

a5

.w / c a 6

.w / c a 6

..Eq. 7

.................Eq.8

Table (6) gives the regression coefficients of the

prediction model above, for the prediction of 7
and 28 days compressive strength respectively,

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as well as the value of coeffient of correlation

C.C (R).
Figure (3) and Figure (4) show the relationship
between the observed(actual) value of the
compressive strength obtained from the
experimental work, and the predicted values
obtained using the proposed model for 7 and 28
days respectively. It is so obvious that almostly
99% of the data lacated on the line of equality
which means that the actual and the predicted
values for the concrete compressive strength are
identical with each other.This is quite true
because the correlation coefficients were 0.995
for 7 days prediction and 0.994 for 28 days
prediction.Moreover almostly 99.047% of the
variance was explained for the 7 days prediction
while 98.8% of the variance was explained for
the 28 days predictions.

Fig. 4 Relationship Between the Observed and

Predicted Values for 28 Days Compressive Strength

Table 6: Regression coefficients for the 7 & 28 days

compressive strength prediction models
Coefficient

7 days
prediction
model
A0
0.2335
A1
-4.8139
A2
4.0703
A3
-4.1368
A4
-3.9896
A5
2.5945
A6
1.4920
C.C
0.995
Variance explaine 99.047%

28 days
prediction
model
0.34262
-28.7310
28.0856
-28.3023
-1.9259
0.72819
1.61814
0.994
98.8%

Fig. 3 Relationship Between the Observed and

Predicted Values for 7 Days Compressive Strength

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400

Comparison with Other Data

To test the proposed model obtained from this

study ,it was decided apply the model using data
from other sources or data from other researchers
.This comparison is very important to check the
validity of the proposed model for the prediction of
7 and 28 days compressive strength of concrete for
any set of data. These data were imported from
literature belong to Jee Namyong et al. [6]. Table
(7) shows full details of the data imported and used
to check the proposed model. The data comprises
on 59 different kind of mixture with specified
compressive strength of 18-27 MPa, w/c ratio of
0.39-0.62, maximum aggregate size of 25 mm and
slump of 12-15 cm.
The reason to choose this set of data is, the
large number of concrete mixes (which mean large
number of sample) and these mixes were from
different plants of ready mix concrete ,and this is
also a good prove that the proposed model could
valid even for ready mix concrete . Another reason
that these data were from Korea, so, this is also a
good prove that the model could work for any type
and any place inspite of variation of data. Variation
in concrete strength of the test specimens depends
on how well the materials, concrete manufacture
and testing is controlled. Especially construction
practices may cause variation in strength of in-situ
concrete due to inadequate mixing, poor
compaction, delay and improper curing [6].
The variables used in the model were these
available from the data .The correlation coefficient
for the prediction of 28 days compressive strength
was 0.7579 and 0.7267 for 7 days prediction, these
results consider to be good results concerning the
variations in the data. Moreover, there are some
relationships in previously published studies that
can predict the 28 days compressive strength from
7 days values [1], or may be earlier values [3, 4].

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MATHEMATICAL METHODS, COMPUTATIONAL TECHNIQUES, NON-LINEAR SYSTEMS, INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS

So, if we use the concept of early age strength to

predict later age strength in this case, i.e, the
strength at 7 days (7) will be one of the variables
used in the model. The coefficient of correlation in
this case will improve significantly from 0.7579 to
0.866 which prove the importance of this concept.

40.98
42.45
44.31
48.4
45.17
44.31
44.31
39.37
43.75
41.47
43.85

Table 7. Data for 7 & 28 days compressive strength of

the proposed models

w/c
%
60.21
59.74
60.6
57.48
60.32
61.49
59.55
50
47.83
49.44
52.35
44.47
44.69
48.56
48.92
50
49.73
44.75
45.34
46.56
50
47.04
47.3
48.04
48.41
48.41
47.79
45.69
46.76
46.74
44.21
47.77
45.14
48.41
45.89
48.56
45.69
47.78
45.87
45.99
42.76
40.89
40.62
41.97
44.1
43.57
44.31
44.31

S/a
%
51.2
52.1
52.1
52.7
50.9
51.2
46.1
48.5
45.1
48.8
47.9
44.9
47.6
49.6
49.4
49.5
49.9
48.8
46.1
43.9
46
44.7
44.7
47.1
47.4
47.4
47.6
48.3
50.3
50.5
49.0
46.1
47.2
47.4
43.5
45.8
48.3
45.1
44
43.9
46.3
42.5
42.0
47.5
48.3
46.8
46.6
46.6

Weight of unit volume (kg/m3)

Age
W
G
S
g
nt
174
289
933
900
0.86
184
308
927
860
0.91
183
302
926
860
0.91
173
301
961
863
0.9
190
315
904
862
0.47
190
309
911
859
0.46
184
309
821
975
0.92
164
328
886
942
1.64
176
368
805
988
0.77
178
360
858
914
1.08
178
340
839
931
0.51
165
371
810
1000 1.85
164
367
847
940
1.84
169
348
882
902
1.74
181
370
866
887
1.11
171
342
885
913
1.71
181
364
865
874
1.09
179
400
835
894
2.8
180
397
790
939
2.78
183
393
759
981
1.18
175
350
804
955
1.05
183
389
778
962
1.17
184
389
778
962
1.17
184
383
810
924
1.15
183
378
807
902
1.13
183
378
818
924
1.13
184
385
812
922
1.16
175
383
846
905
0.77
173
370
889
878
1.11
179
383
879
862
1.15
168
380
868
903
1.9
182
381
812
956
0.8
172
381
815
940
1.91
183
378
807
923
1.13
184
401
754
978
2.01
185
381
800
946
1.91
175
383
863
888
1.92
172
360
794
965
1.08
189
412
730
947
1.65
189
411
732
951
1.44
180
421
784
927
0.85
184
450
713
977
1.35
184
453
704
983
1.59
183
436
804
889
0.87
187
424
812
882
1.27
183
420
785
920
1.26
183
413
780
921
1.24
183
413
791
923
1.24

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Compressiv
e strength
(MPa)
7D
15.5
16.3
16.3
21.5
18.6
17.4
15.8
23.2
19.1
23.3
22.6
20.7
18.9
24.1
23
23
21.6
22
22.4
20.4
16
19.8
18.1
20.1
22
22.8
21.2
22.8
21.3
21.2
21.1
20
21.5
20.7
23.7
21.9
20.6
21
25
20.7
22.7
22.6
23.6
22.8
22.4
22.8
23.9
23.6

46.4
47.7
46.6
47.6
48.5
46.6
46.6
45.2
44.7
45.5
44.6

168
180
183
196
187
183
183
176
182
175
171

410
424
413
405
414
413
413
447
416
422
390

811
813
783
786
818
780
783
760
771
782
768

936
891
956
879
883
900
914
970
954
937
969

2.05
1.27
0.87
0.61
1.24
1.24
1.24
1.34
2.08
0.84
1.17

22.6
22.9
20.8
22.4
22.8
25.9
24.5
24.7
23.4
23.7
24.9

33.3
30.8
29.3
30.7
29.5
34.3
32.4
29.4
30.8
31.5
30.6

Conclusions

From this study ,a mathemaical reggretion model

was developed.
i) The importance of the influence of mix
constituents on the strength of concrete was
approved
ii) Previouse models that deal with the prediction
of concrete compressive strength lack of
including other variables affecting strength
gaining in concrete.
iii) A mathematical models for the prediction of
concrete compessive strength at the ages of 7
and 28 were proposed and developed (using
non-linear regressions) from the knowledge of
the mix constituents, i.e, the variables used are
the mix proportions elements.

28 D
21.2
24.2
23
26.2
24
22.5
22.6
34.7
26.9
30.7
28.8
27.6
28.5
31.8
30.5
31.6
31.7
30.2
30.2
29.7
29.8
26.7
25.3
27.8
29.1
29.2
27.6
28.9
27.3
27.6
29.1
26.2
28.3
27.5
31.3
28.7
28.2
27.7
30.9
30.7
30
30.7
31
29.8
30.2
30.7
30.1
30.9

The prediction models developed in this study are:

7 = a 0 C a 1 .W
28 = a 0 C

a1

.W

a2

. FA

a2

. FA

a3

a3

.CA

.CA

a4

a4

a5

a5

.w / c a 6

.w / c a 6

iv) These models prove to be used with any set of

data inspite of variations in test results of the
concrete in question.
v) The concept of using early age strength to
predict strngth at later ages proved to be valid
and could be used sucussfuly.
References:
[1] N. Hamid-zadeh, A. Jamali, N. Nariman-zadeh,
H., A Polynomial Model For Concrete
Compressive Strength Prediction Using GMDHtype Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithem
[2]Darren Williams, Concrete Strength Prediction
From Early-Age Data-Technical Paper, Honour
Project, Technical Paper, University of Adelaide
[3]Suhad M.A., Mathematical model for the
prediction of cement compressive strength at the
ages of 7&28 days within 24 hours, MSc Thesis,
Al-Mustansiriya
University,
college
of
engineering, civil engineering department, 2001.

401

ISBN: 978-960-474-012-3

MATHEMATICAL METHODS, COMPUTATIONAL TECHNIQUES, NON-LINEAR SYSTEMS, INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS

[4] Kheder G.F.,Al-Gabban A.M. & Suhad M.A.

Mathematical model for the prediction of cement
compressive strength at the ages of 7&28 days
within 24 hour materials and structures 2003.
36: 693-701.
[5] Sandor popovics, Analysis of Concrete Strength
Versus Water-Cement Ratio Relationship, ACI
Material Journal,Vol.87, No.5, SeptemberOctober 1990, Pp.517-529
[6] Jee Namyong, Yoon Sangchun, Cho Hongbum,
Prediction of Compressive Strength of In-Situ
Concrete Based on Mixture Proportion, Journal
of Asian Architecture and Building Engineering,
16, may 2004.
[7]Steven, C. Chapra, Raymond & P. Canale.
Numerical Methods for engineers with personal
computer applications, 1989.

ISSN: 1790-2769

402

ISBN: 978-960-474-012-3