Part 1 of the Water Cycle Science Plan

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A PLAN FOR A NEW SCIENCE INITIATIVE ON THE

GLOBAL WATER CYCLE
by
The Water Cycle Study Group*
at the request of the
Agencies of the U.S. Global Change Research Program

John Aber, Roger Bales, Jean Bahr, Keith Beven, Efi Foufoula-Georgiou, George M.
Hornberger (Chair), Gabriel Katul, James L.Kinter III, Randy Koster, Dennis
Lettenmaier, Diane McKnight, Kathleen Miller, Kenneth Mitchell, John Roads, Bridget
R Scanlon, Eric Smith

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Introduction
Earth is the water planet. The stunning visual images of earth from space reinforce this
truism emphatically. These images show blue water covering some 70% of the globe,
display the white cloud systems that are major weather producers, and bring home the
knowledge that regional differences in water delivered to the continents make some
areas very green and others quite brown. The study of water motions on the water
planet is an intriguing enterprise. The motion of water in its three phases liquid, solid,
and gas around the globe is the domain of global water cycle science.

The quantities of water involved in the global cycle are large. About 500 thousand cubic
kilometers are evaporated from the world oceans each year. (This amount of water
would cover the entire continent of North America to a depth of about 24 meters or
about 80 feet.) Much of this evaporation is balanced by rain falling back into the oceans,
but some forty-six thousand cubic kilometers are transported by the atmosphere from
oceanic regions to continental regions. The water cycle over the continents consists of
the delivery of almost 120 thousand cubic kilometers to the surface each year by
precipitation, the return of more than 70 thousand cubic kilometers back to the
atmosphere by evaporation and transpiration (the process by which plants move water

from the soil up to the leaves and thence to the atmosphere), and return of forty-six
thousand cubic kilometers of water back to the oceans in the form of river and
groundwater flow.
The water cycle involves much more than the motion of water itself, however. It takes a
great deal of heat to change liquid water into water vapor and this heat is released when
the reverse process condensation occurs. By moving water vapor around the globe,
the atmosphere transports large quantities of energy, as well as the water itself. Also,
water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas, absorbing infrared radiation strongly. The
end result is a tight link between the water cycle and the energy cycle, the cycle that
distributes the radiant energy received from the sun globally.
In addition, water is the universal solvent. Water chemically weathers rocks and soils,
carrying dissolved salts from the continents to the seas. It interacts with decaying
vegetation and carries organic carbon seaward. Water also readily carries chemicals
that humans use to the sea, including fertilizers and other agrochemicals. The global
water cycle is thus linked to other element cycles, for example to the carbon and
nitrogen cycles, and is inextricably linked with a host of ecosystem functions. Moving
water carries suspended solids as well as dissolved salts, so the water cycle also has
important links to cycles of erosion and sedimentation.
Poor agricultural
practices and
years of
sustained
drought caused
the Dust Bowl. In
some places the
dust drifted like
snow, covering
farmsteads.

The large-scale transport of water and energy results in persistent "average" conditions
that affect regions. For example, in the United States, Alabama and Mississippi are
warm and humid because of their proximity to the moisture flow from the Gulf of Mexico,
southern California has a Mediterranean climate because of the control of storm tracks
by large-scale, seasonal atmospheric patterns, and the eastern parts of Oregon and
Washington are relatively dry because they are in the rain shadow of the Cascade
Mountains. Nevertheless, there is much variability in the water cycle manifested within
and across regions. Normal day-to-day variability is associated with weather, of course,
but variations that have enormous impact occur over longer times as well. The 1993
floods in the Mississippi resulted from an abnormally persistent atmospheric weather
pattern, where the jet stream remained in an almost fixed position over the central part of
the U.S. for months. Moist air from the Gulf of Mexico collided with cool, dry air from
Canada at the jet-stream boundary, leading to prolonged rainfall over a large area.
Droughts can occur on seasonal and longer time scales. The Dust Bowl in the southern
plains of the U.S. in the 1930s lasted for a decade, for example. Both natural and

human induced variability in the water cycle can be critically important to natural
ecosystems and to water resource systems developed for human use.

Water cycle research present status

Given the profound influence of the water cycle on human activities, and given the evergrowing demand for water in the face of a steadily increasing human population, it is
understandable that research into many facets of the cycle has been a high priority
both in the U.S. and internationally. Advances in modern instrumentation and in
computational capabilities have enabled scientists to address problems and questions
that were beyond abilities just several decades ago. Our newfound ability to track
changes in sea-surface temperature and our knowledge of how these relate to climate
phenomena are one example of how science has moved forward. The recent success
of forecasts related to the 1997-98 El Nio show how scientific advances have had an
important impact on operational aspects of water resources management.
The Large Scale
Biosphere-Atmosphere
Experiment in Amazonia
(LBA) is an international
research initiative led by
Brazil. LBA is designed
to create the new
knowledge needed to
understand the
climatological,
ecological,
biogeochemical, and
hydrological functioning
of Amazonia.
All of the agencies of the US Global Climate Research Program (USGCRP) have
programs related to the water cycle. A comprehensive listing of accomplishments can
not be made here, but a few examples should be illuminating. Water-cycle research
under GEWEX, the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment, has led to the ability to
produce consistent hydrometeorological information over the continental U.S. on a
systematic daily schedule. Regional operational products stemming from the research
are being archived and distributed as a basic resource for investigations of coupled
atmospheric and hydrologic climate processes on spatial scales from local to continental
and on time-scales from hourly to interannual. Intensive field campaigns like the First
ISLSCP Field Experiment (FIFE) in Kansas in the 1980s and the BOReal EcosystemAtmosphere Study (BOREAS) in central Canada in the 1990s have integrated ground
observations with aircraft and satellite remote sensing to gain a better understanding of
the influences of water-cycle processes at Earth's surface. The Atmospheric Radiation
Measurement (ARM) program, aimed at improving understanding of the transfer of
radiation through the atmosphere, is providing information critical to links between the
energy and water cycles. Also, new technologies are being applied to experimental
watersheds that have been operated continuously for 50 years or more, resulting in
enhancements in understanding of watershed processes and a better ability to interpret
the long records for these sites. In addition to U.S.-based work, international
collaboration has led to new insights, a notable example being the ongoing Large-Scale

Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) focusing on the Amazon River

basin.

Water cycle research the potential

Better information and knowledge about the water cycle can improve our use of
resources, our prevention of adverse impacts, and our adaptation to variations in the
water cycle at global, regional, and local scales by addressing two major questions. The
first is "How much water of what quality is available and how has this changed over
time?" The ability to assess the resource and possible trends depends critically on
knowing how much water there is in different components of the cycle, how much water
is moving between components, what the quality of the water is, and how amounts and
quality are changing in time. The second question is "How are amounts and quality of
water in various components of the cycle likely to change in the future over the next
few days in response to weather, over the next few months in response to seasonal
change, and over longer times in response to climate variation and land use and land
cover changes?" The ability to improve forecasts will stem from theoretical advances
(knowing the limits of predictability) and from advances in computer models.
Advancement in computer models of the water cycle will be possible because of the
continuing pace of improvements in computers themselves, but will require new
measurements and new understanding of processes to constrain and guide the
development of the models.
The USGS National
Water Quality
Assessment
Program has looked
at status and trends
of the quality of the
Nations water. One
finding -insecticides were
found more often,
and usually at higher
concentrations, in
urban streams than
in agricultural
streams.
Water cycle science is poised to make significant advances and to generate new
knowledge that will contribute to addressing the questions above. Remotely sensed
observations of the land, ocean, and atmosphere from satellites and suborbital platforms
(e.g., aircraft and balloons) can provide synoptic high-resolution coverage that is
unprecedented in the geophysical sciences. We already see how such observations
have changed the science and the applications of science. Improved rainfall estimates
are being derived from ground-based radar and from satellite. Satellite-based water
vapor measurements are used in weather prediction models. Remotely sensed data on
snow cover are used in seasonal predictions of spring runoff. Land cover (vegetation),
the extent of riparian wetlands and other ecological measures may be detected through
remote sensing. Data from remote sensing often are of limited use in and of themselves,
but they can improve the usefulness of conventional observation networks. Tremendous

improvements in ground-based methods are certain to occur. Automated measurements

in remote locations will become available, and these in conjunction with remote sensing
observations can be integrated into assessment and forecasting tools. Other methods
are primed to aid in the development of new approaches in water cycle science. Surface
and borehole geophysical methods have led to great improvements in our ability to
characterize subsurface flow regimes. New approaches to measuring and interpreting
water quality in terms of water cycle processes are being developed and applied.

Advances in
observational
capabilities and
in computer
modeling have
greatly improved
predictions of
extreme events
such as
hurricanes,
leading to better
emergency
responses.

Computer modeling of the water cycle and its components has benefited greatly from
faster computers, improved analysis capabilities of geographical information systems,
digital elevation models, and detailed information on aspect, soil types, vegetation, and
land use. These computational advances and enhanced data sources allow finer
resolution in simulating important processes. There are limits on the accuracy of
forecasts, however, and it is no longer clear that increased computing capacity alone will
necessarily lead to better forecasts. Some analyses suggest that low frequency
predictable components of the water cycle variability (e.g. seasonal variations) that are
superimposed on higher frequency chaotic fluctuations (e.g. daily variations) can be
isolated and predicted. While concentration of efforts on the most predictable
components of the water cycle will be the most cost effective and rapid way to make
progress, just what components are most predictable is an area itself where progress is
needed. Furthermore, less predictable or inherently unpredictable processes must be
understood and their limits of predictability assessed.
The enhanced capabilities in modeling have had a notable influence on forecasting
(prediction). Methods for using data directly in conjunction with models have led to
improved ability to document global water and energy flux components. The application
of the same techniques to hydrology and to ecology can yield quantitative data for
variables that have been heretofore unavailable. Significant progress has been made in
the validation of physical models of the atmosphere, but more effort is needed to
understand the coupling of the land and atmosphere, and in turn to use this information
to improve water management.

Overall, the continuing advances in the global observation and modeling of the Earth
system provide enhanced prospects for the development of information systems for
resource management and for quantitative estimation and prediction of the water fluxes
between the ocean, atmosphere, land, and cryosphere (snow and ice components) over
a variety of time and space scales. Improved information systems and prediction
methods can in turn lead to large benefits for water, land, and biological resource
management and thus regional economies if the information (along with the associated
uncertainties) is communicated effectively to decision-makers and the public. For
reasons noted below, however, this promise is as yet unfulfilled.

Water Cycle Research Current Gaps

Despite impressive advances in the development of models of the Earth system, key
processes central to the global water cycle remain poorly understood. These processes
have crucial implications for prediction of key components of the water cycle, like
precipitation, and in turn management of water resources. For instance, there remain
important gaps in observations of the movement of moisture in the atmosphere, the socalled rivers of the sky that redistribute moisture from the oceans to the continents.
The location of these rivers, and variations in their flow over time scales from hours to
years, are likewise not well understood. This gap in understanding has important
implications for water resources. Long-term variations in atmospheric moisture
convergence that is, the net amount of atmospheric moisture entering a region are
manifested by variations in river runoff. One example is the rapid decline in levels of the
Great Lakes, from near-record highs barely two years ago. Furthermore, the formation
of clouds, which depends on knowledge of water vapor transport, is critical to
understanding of the water cycle at the land surface in at least two ways. First, clouds
are the source of precipitation, which controls runoff and streamflow.

meters (above MSL)

178

Michigan-Huron Elevation
178 Lake
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M
ichigan-HuronElevation
17177
7.5
177
176.5
17176
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176
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175.51978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998
197819821986199019941998
177.5

From near-record high levels only two years ago, Great Lakes levels have declined
precipitously, and are now below their long-term averages. The levels of the Great
Lakes respond directly to accumulated variations in the net convergence of
6
atmospheric moisture over the Great Lakes drainage basin.

Second, clouds influence the amount of solar radiation that reaches the land surface,
which in turn strongly affects evaporation and transpiration, hence plant growth, and the
balance in the amount of moisture that reaches streams. Cloud formation is a smallscale process that is difficult to represent in weather prediction and climate models due
to computing limitations that constrain models to be run at spatial scales larger than
those needed to resolve clouds. For this reason, cloud processes must be
parameterized in most current models, and these parameterizations often limit the ability
of the models to predict important hydrologic variables like precipitation.

Formation of clouds is a key process that controls precipitation, and also affects the
solar radiation reaching the land surface. Topography strongly affects cloud
formation, and precipitation. In mountainous areas, like the western U.S.,
precipitation in river headwaters greatly exceeds that in lower reaches, and these
headwaters areas are therefore responsible for a disproportionate amount of the
streamflow that is available for downstream use.

At the land surface, hydrologic extremes are the most important manifestations of the
water cycle. Water resources management that is, the infrastructure, day-to-day
operations, and long-term planning for water supply, generation of energy, irrigation,
transportation, recreation, habitat protection, and a range of other uses is based on
understanding of the risk of unusual events. For instance, many municipal water supply
systems are operated with a 98 percent reliability that is, nominally they should be able
to meet demand in 49 years of 50. In the remaining one year, it is expected that unusual
measures such as water use restrictions will be necessary. Yet these risk estimates

Efficient management of water resources is critically dependent on knowledge of

both long-term climatological variations in river inflows, and the ability to forecast
future inflows from hours to months or years in advance. Long term variations
and/or changes in climate complicate the forecasting problem, and may well
make existing operational protocols invalid.
are rooted in methods that use past observations of surface hydrological variables like
streamflow.
If future climate changes, these risk estimates could be in error, resulting in unexpected
system failures. At the other end of the spectrum, rare floods are a significant cause of
natural hazard-related loss of life and property damage in the U.S. By some accounts,
the Mississippi River flood of 1993 resulted in damages exceeding $20 million, and the
Red River flood of 1997 resulted in over $1 billion in damages in a relatively sparsely
populated area. Although the ability to predict such floods has improved, much more
could and must be done. One pressing reason for improving hydrologic prediction is
the significant rise in flood damages over the last 20 years. If extreme events, like
intense precipitation, are in fact increasing as some studies have suggested, flood
damages may rise even faster. Better observing systems and forecasting tools are the
key to preventing loss of life, and reducing flood loss damage.

The Water Cycle Study Group

In September 1999, in recognition that the time was right for implementing a new thrust
on water cycle research, the USGCRP agencies appointed a panel of scientists to
develop a plan for new scientific work. We, the members of that Water Cycle Study
Group, prepared this document. We met several times during the fall of 1999 to discuss
ideas and to develop an outline for the science plan. At the Fall meeting of the American
Geophysical Union and at Winter meetings of the American Meteorological Society and

the American Society of Limnology and Oceanography, we held "town meetings" to

solicit reactions to our outline from our peers. At the end of February 2000, we
completed a draft of the science plan and posted it on the Internet for comment. In
March, we held an open workshop in Washington, DC to discuss the draft plan. Written
comments were solicited as well. On the basis of our discussions and deliberations and
the comments and criticisms from fellow scientists, the final version of the plan was
developed.

The Fort Collins flood of July 28, 1997 resulted in five deaths, and almost $200
million of property damage. Spring Creek (drainage basin shown in red on inset)
normally flows 2-10 cfs at this time of year; flood peak discharge was estimated at
8250 cfs. No existing mesocscale weather models have been able to reconstruct
this storm. Forecasts of this flood were poor, due to underestimation of
precipitation rates by weather radars, and inability of forecast models to pinpoint
storm location and intensity.

The plan is motivated by the many water cycle issues and problems facing society
today. Natural climate variability and human activities have the potential to perturb the
fluxes and storages that make up the global water cycle, and these perturbations can
have significant societal impacts. Evidence of natural long-term variability indicate
prolonged drought conditions in the tropics lasting 100 years or more as did equally
prolonged periods of very wet conditions. In addition to natural variability, there is a

need to understand human induced changes in the water cycle. There is abundant
evidence that changes in land cover and land use can have significant, even drastic,
impacts on the water cycle at local and regional scales. Also, according to climate model
predictions, the most significant manifestation of global warming induced by greenhouse
gases would be an intensification of the rate of the global water cycle, leading to
increased global precipitation, faster evaporation, and a general exacerbation of extreme
weather and hydrological regimes, floods, and droughts. Clearly, regardless of their
origin, long-term changes in the quantity and quality of water available for use by
municipalities, agriculture and industry can have important impacts on society and
natural ecosystems. There is a clear need to develop data that will allow better
management decisions and to improve models to predict variations in the water cycle,
including variations that affect freshwater supply and the quality of that supply.
Adding to the motivation is the simple fact that Earths human population is steadily
growing. As a result, human demand for fresh water is steadily increasing just as the
overall quality of water (through pollution and other human-imposed stress) for humans
and ecosystems is decreasing. The need for improved quantification and prediction of
water cycle fluxes will only become more important as high quality water becomes
scarcer. (Indeed, some projections suggest that a critical point, when global demand
exceeds global supply, may occur within our or our childrens lifetimes.)
To address successfully the critical water cycle problems facing society, the research
plan we devised needed to be extensive, interdisciplinary, and integrated. It therefore
needed to be highly ambitious. Given the multi-faceted nature of the critical issues, we
decided, after much consideration, to frame the plan in terms of three key science
questions, and goals that must be met to answer each question.

Science Question 1: What are the underlying causes of variation in the water
cycle on both global and regional scales, and to what extent is this variation induced
by human activity?
Goal 1: Quantify variability in the water cycle.
Goal 2: Understand the mechanisms underlying variability in the water cycle.
Goal 3: Distinguish human-induced and natural variations in the water cycle.

Science Question 2: To what extent are variations in the global and regional
water cycle predictable?
Goal 1: Demonstrate the degree of predictability of variations in the water
cycle.
Goal 2: Improve predictions of water resources by quantifying fluxes between
key hydrologic reservoirs using observations, process understanding and
numerical modeling.
Goal 3: Establish a systems modeling framework for making predictions and
estimates of uncertainty that are useful for water-resources management,
natural hazard mitigation, decision-making, and policy guidance.

Science Question 3: How will variability and changes in the cycling of water
through terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems be linked to variability and changes in
cycling of carbon, nitrogen and other nutrients at regional and global scales?
Goal 1: Develop observations and experiments that characterize the coupling
of water, carbon and nitrogen cycles

10

Goal 2: Develop a quantitative predictive framework for water, carbon and

nitrogen fluxes coupled to ecosystem responses.
Goal 3: Distinguish between human-induced and natural variations in the
coupling of water, carbon, and nitrogen cycles.

Each of the science questions was analyzed, the science needs were identified, and a
set of science activities was proposed to meet the needs (Table ES1).
Our vision is for a coordinated effort that expands the overall scope of the work on the
water cycle across all the USGCRP agencies. We argue that, despite differing cultures
and missions, all of the USGCRP agencies and the scientific community in general
would benefit from a much-improved knowledge base with respect to the water cycle at
long time and large space scales. Thus, as an overarching principle, we believe that the
initial focus of the water cycle science initiative should be on a) seasonal to inter-annual
and longer time scales and b) regional to global spatial scales. We believe that the focus
on intermediate and long time scales is most appropriate to the climate charge of the
USGCRP (as opposed to weather although we recognize that climate is in a sense
average weather, and therefore some focus on weather processes will be necessary).
The focus on regional to global spatial scales devolves from our charge from USGCRP
to develop a global water cycle science plan. We further believe that such a focus has
both scientific and practical justification. Arguably, scientific challenges are greatest at
these time and space scales and potential scientific rewards are commensurably large.
We also argue that critical scientific and applications gaps exist at these time and space
scales that have limited the availability of knowledge to water managers and other
stakeholders that could result in more efficient management of water resources locally.
Knowledge about hydrologic fluctuations having durations of decades to centuries is
important because the lifetimes of man-made water-resource systems and the durations
of consequences of water-resources decisions are of comparable duration.
We see three primary challenges for the research efforts. The first is to deliver data and
information with enhanced resolution and increased precision in a timely way.
Successfully meeting this challenge will require integration of data from new sensors
with data from existing networks, and selective expansion of existing observation
networks. Techniques borrowed from neighboring disciplines must be embraced. In
addition to collection of new data, existing long-term records must be archived and
preserved carefully, and observations must be continued indefinitely at sites with long
high-quality records, so that the patterns of temporal variability, including long-term lowfrequency fluctuations, can be defined and studied. Studies of hydrologic proxy variables
such as tree rings, sedimentary deposits, and archaeological relics must be undertaken
to extend the length of long instrumental records. The databases of proxy records must
be coordinated and integrated with instrumental databases. It is absolutely essential that
the data challenge be met for two reasons. First, major scientific advances in the
environmental sciences almost always follow on the heels of new observations
(including proxy observations) and new instruments with increased resolution.
Research in the water cycle is no exception. Second, users of water cycle research often
need data and information themselves and not only predictions from models.

11

TABLE ES1. The identified needs and proposed actions

associated with each of the science questions.
SCIENCE QUESTION 1

SCIENCE QUESTION 2

SCIENCE QUESTION 3

WHAT ARE THE UNDERLYING

CAUSES OF VARIATION IN THE
WATER CYCLE ON BOTH
GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
SCALES, AND TO WHAT
EXTENT IS THIS VARIATION
INDUCED BY HUMAN
ACTIVITY?
What is missing scientifically?

Adequate observations to
quantify the variability of
relevant water and energy
cycle components

Adequate understanding of
processes that control
variability in the water cycle

Modeling approaches that

can reproduce observed
variability of the water cycle
relevant for water
management

Approaches to partition
natural and human-caused
variability in the water cycle

TO WHAT EXTENT CAN

VARIATIONS IN THE GLOBAL
AND REGIONAL WATER CYCLE
BE PREDICTED?

HOW WILL VARIABILITY AND

CHANGES IN THE CYCLING OF
WATER THROUGH
ECOSYSTEMS BE LINKED TO
VARIABILITY AND CHANGES IN
CYCLING OF CARBON (C),
NITROGEN (N) AND OTHER
NUTRIENTS ?
What is missing scientifically?

Adequate observations of C
and N reservoirs and fluxes.

Adequate observations of
water use and of institutional
controls on water use.

Adequate understanding of
the linkages between
changes in land use and
changes in water and nutrient
cycling.

Adequate models of transport

of C and N to coastal oceans,
fully coupled biosphereclimate models, coupled
models of water demand,
agricultural practices, land
use, and water quantity and
quality.
What scientific work is needed?

Integrated remote and

ground-based observation
programs, where the
observation are conducted at
a hierarchy of spatial and
temporal scales and recorded
in a sustainable data archive
and retrieval system.

Field studies to establish

quantitative descriptions of
processes relevant to the
coupled C-N-water cycling

Merger of observations and

models to understand and
quantify slower feedback
mechanisms of vegetation
structural dynamics on the
coupled C-N-water cycling.

Knowledge-transfer program
for collaboration and
communication among
researchers, decision-makers
and stakeholders.

What scientific work is needed?

An observation program
utilizing new and evolving
technologies to characterize
variability in the water cycle.

A new commitment to field

studies that focus on
resolving water and energy
cycle uncertainties.

A model development
initiative with a goal to
reproduce observed
variability and help to
discriminate natural and
anthropogenic sources of
variability in the water cycle.

Advanced data assimilation

system and products to unify
disparate observations, and
reduce uncertainty in
estimates of water cycle
variability.

Use of water and energy

budget diagnostics to
evaluate model performance
and to characterize variability
in the water cycle.

What is missing scientifically?

An adequate description of
the spatial and temporal
regimes within which
accurate prediction of
hydrologic variables relevant
to forecasting floods and
droughts is possible.

Adequate understanding of
fluxes between key
hydrologic reservoirs which
can enhance prediction
accuracy and reliability.

Methods to transfer
knowledge effectively from
physical climate and
hydrologic models to water
resources management
strategies.
What scientific work is needed?

Identification of the
predictable components of
the water cycle at all
pertinent time scales and
spatial scales.

Quantifying prediction
uncertainty through a
program of monitoring,
process studies and model
development.

Development and
implementation of
instruments, methods,
networks, and assimilation
techniques to estimate the
two presently unobserved
fluxes, recharge/discharge
and evaporation.

An interdisciplinary initiative
that uses a systems modeling
framework to integrate users
requirements into the design
and implementation of
observing systems, modelbased prediction and forecast
verification.

12

The second major challenge is to determine how predictable the water cycle is on the
time and length scales of interest. The determination of the limits of predictability will
lead to improved prediction because it will allow us to concentrate efforts on the
predictable components of the water cycle. Progress in these areas will be the most cost
effective and rapid. At the same time, less predictable or inherently unpredictable
processes must be understood and their limits of predictability assessed so we can
better appreciate the scope and magnitude of "unanticipated changes".
The third challenge follows directly to improve our ability to predict components of the
water cycle, and closely linked nutrient cycles that affect ecosystems. This challenge
links directly to the other two. To improve predictions, a comprehensive program that
includes observations, process experiments, and numerical modeling will be needed,
and predictability studies will be needed to guide development efforts.
We believe that the research plan should be implemented within a systems framework in
which data, process research, and modeling all are integrated with active feedback from,
and in partnership with, users of the research. Seasonal and longer lead predictions of
the tropical sea surface temperature and its effects on climate variability in other parts of
the globe have been provided to the public. Different sectors have made use of this
information with varying degrees of effectiveness, however formal efforts to meet user
needs regionally have been largely lacking. By incorporating the needs of users into the
way in which the predictions are made and the observations are presented, the
information can be made significantly more useful.

The Pillar Initiatives of the Water Cycle Science Plan

The three science questions outlined above frame the research we believe is needed to
address the critical water cycle issues facing society today. This science plan provides
an ambitious, comprehensive strategy for performing the research.
Given the substantial breadth of the plan, however, it may be difficult to know where to
start where to focus our initial investments. Fully aware that the needed research
cannot all be performed at once, the Water Cycle Study Group has identified a
crosscutting subset of the proposed research that should be given first priority. This
subset of research is framed around three pillar initiatives:
PILLAR INITIATIVE #1-Determine whether or not the global water cycle is
intensifying and to what degree human activities are responsible.
The frequency of extreme hydrological events, a critical characteristic of the environment
that affects all aspects of human society and enterprise, varies over decadal and longer
time scales. There is evidence that suggests that the global hydrologic cycle may be
intensifying, leading to an increase in the frequency of extremes. This intensification, if it
is truly occurring, may be a result of human activities (including, among other things,
increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and altering the
landscape of the planet through changes in land cover and land use). The resolution to
the questions of whether or not the water cycle is intensifying and, if so, to what extent
the intensification is due to human activities requires a focused effort on modeling
changes in the global water cycle on climate time scales. It also requires supporting
observational studies, process studies, and budget studies.

13

Key elements for addressing this pillar initiative are better understanding the processes
governing space-time distributions of regional and global precipitation, atmospheric
water vapor, cloud processes, snow and ice reservoirs, and global ocean fluxes. Efforts
to improve process understanding must be founded on better observations of pertinent
state variables, field experiments, and improvements in coupled atmosphere-land-ocean
models.
PILLAR INITIATIVE #2-Determine the deeper scientific understanding that is
needed to reduce substantially the losses or costs associate with water-cycle
calamities such as droughts, floods and coastal eutrophication and incorporate it
into prediction systems.
Through a better understanding of the hydrological cycle and its relationship to
meteorological, climatological, biological, and other phenomena, we can increase our
skill in predicting regional water supply and biogeochemical anomalies at seasonal and
longer time scales and thereby, through corresponding resource management, minimize
associated economic losses.
Key elements for addressing this pillar are improvement of model predictive skill through
testing of models with better observations, explicitly addressing conceptual model and
parameter uncertainties, and conducting comparisons among different codes using data
from carefully designed field experiments.
PILLAR INITIATIVE #3-Develop the scientifically based capacity to predict the
effects of changes in land use, land cover and cryospheric processes on the
cycling of water and biogeochemical constituents.
It has been hypothesized that changes in land and water use (including, for instance,
irrigated agriculture, deforestation, urbanization) are increasing rates of water cycling
through terrestrial reservoirs and are altering storage in these reservoirs, making water
resources increasingly vulnerable to extreme events. Cryospheric processes, which are
in fact ephemeral changes in land cover, are critically important to water resources
issues (for example, snowmelt is the primary source of runoff in the western U.S.).
Key elements for addressing this pillar initiative include assembling comprehensive data
sets to enable evaluation of land cover change as related to the water cycle and a
program of enhanced, sustained observations of key state variables. The application of
numerical modeling to evaluate susceptibility of water resources to climate variability and
to land use and land cover changes and to changes in processes related to snow and
ice dynamics would follow from these activities.

Challenges and Payoffs of an Integrated Water Cycle Initiative

Several challenges will have to be met if this science plan is to be implemented
successfully. First, new resources will have to be found. Current water cycle research
serves as the backbone of the proposed new initiative, but will not be enough. Second,
cooperation with other related programs will have to be cultivated. The water cycle
initiative simply cannot do everything that is needed. There is a critical need to continue
work underway on climate systems, on biosphere processes, and on ocean circulation,
for example, and results from such work will have to be assimilated into the water cycle
program and not duplicated. Third, the program must truly be integrated. Although work
must be "parceled out" to achieve the various objectives, there must be real
collaboration and coordination among agencies.

14

A coordinated program for measuring key variables of the water cycle, for mounting joint
field campaigns, and for modeling within and across disciplines is required to integrate
across the pillar initiatives. There is a set of key program elements.

Improved observations, including innovative measurements of water vapor and wind

profiles, precipitation measurements at higher temporal and spatial resolution, and
satellite observations of cloud structure and associated processes would play a key
role. A regional-scale network of sites would be developed at which surface
meteorological variables, soil moisture, and groundwater levels would be measured
coincidentally. Improved estimation of water contained in seasonal snow packs
would be facilitated by expanded networks in the west and northern tier of the U.S. A
global capability to estimate, in near-real time, the discharge of major rivers at their
mouths and at key points within the continents would be included, as would a
network of in-situ monitoring stations near mouths of major U.S. rivers that would
allow coincident estimation of water, and dissolved and suspended material fluxes. A
rotating sub-network to expand the range of land cover types and hydroclimatic
conditions represented should be placed into service. Enhanced global ocean
observations, combining satellite remote sensing, as well as long term deployment of
arrays of ocean buoys or subsurface floats, would be planned in coordination with
other programs.

In coordination with a comprehensive program of enhanced surface observations,

new technologies must be exploited. Continued improvement in measurement of
precipitation, particularly at the global scale, would be a key element of the program.
Similarly, observations related to clouds and other aspects of the atmospheric
branch of the water cycle must be refined and improved. Satellite-based observation
platforms to estimate near-surface soil wetness would play a key role, as would
satellite-based instruments that could yield higher resolution, global estimates of
snow water storage. Technology research to explore methods of providing estimates
of concentrations of dissolved and suspended constituents in water bodies would be
accelerated.

A set of coordinated field, remote sensing, and modeling experiments designed to

elucidate the role of regional anomalies in the global transport of water, and in
particular, their role in the maintenance of deviations in global moisture transport that
lead to extreme droughts and large area flooding, would be carried out. These
enhanced field campaigns would include a multi-year component, so that seasonal
and interannual variations in large-scale surface conditions, surface fluxes, and
atmospheric variables could be observed. These large-scale observations would be
supplemented with simultaneous observations of the slower components of the land
system, such as groundwater levels. These observation programs would be
coordinated with nested basin studies in river systems with varying land cover and
levels of human disturbance and regulation. The continuing observations would be
supplemented by periodic rotating field campaigns, which would integrate surface,
aircraft, and satellite observations.

Nested regional climate models provide a means of linking atmospheric, land-surface

and subsurface processes. In addition to water and energy fluxes, research would be
supported aimed at including coupled water, carbon, and nitrogen transport and
transformation in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. This research would be heavily

15

computational in nature and would require enhancements to the available computing

capabilities of the nation. An important element of the model development strategy
would be a search for model structures that minimize the propagation of uncertainty
among the model components as their complexity increases. Advances in both
geographical information technologies, and supporting spatial databases for surface
characteristics like topography, vegetation, soils, and land cover would play a key
role. Model testing facilities would be established at existing environmental
prediction centers to facilitate model evaluation and the transfer of methods from the
research community to the operational modeling community.
If the challenges of implementing an integrated water cycle initiative are met, the payoffs
can be immense. Scientific understanding of the water cycle would be advanced.
Although it is hardly certain where improved scientific understanding will lead, it can be
stated with confidence that the return on investment would be large, particularly given
the ever-growing demands of a steadily growing population for more fresh water and the
ever-increasing stresses on water quantity and quality that this growing population is
imposing on ecosystems. The utility of current information on the water cycle is evident
from current programs, for example the Internet sites maintained by various agencies.
Not only would this information be increased and enhanced by the proposed water cycle
initiative, but it would be better integrated so that connections among all of the parts
would be made more transparent. Furthermore, prediction tools would be greatly
improved and prediction uncertainties reduced. The influence of forecasting on many
problems related to water resources is profound, and the capability to make better
forecasts would have direct and indirect benefits to all segments of society. Advances in
water-cycle predictive capabilities would be used to inform decisions that determine
water allocations, land use change, regional economic development, urban growth and
the sustainability of regional economies.
The management of water resources in the United States requires a fully integrated
knowledge base derived from a broad mix of disciplines including not only the natural
sciences but also the fields of law, economics, sociology and political science. This
science, which represents a consensus of the water cycle science community, is based
on the existing world view of climate and water management. We have identified a
number of issues based on current trends and have recommended actions to deal with
them through science initiatives and knowledge transfer. We realize that as new water
problems emerge and a more integrated view of management and science evolves,
opportunities will arise for climate and hydrologic information to benefit society through
more holistic approaches to these problems. To address these future opportunities fully,
plans should be developed for a wide-ranging integrated program dealing with research
on social, legal, economic and political issues as well as the natural sciences.

16

CHAPTER 1 RATIONALE Introduction: The Hydrological Cycle

A characteristic of the Earths climate that distinguishes it from all other known planets is
the coexistence of water in three physical states (solid, liquid, and gas). The cycling of
water among the three phases is important not only for driving the atmospheric general
circulation but for the very existence of life as we know it. The Earths water cycle can be
viewed simplistically in five steps. Under suitable conditions, (1) liquid and solid water
evaporate from the ocean and land into the atmosphere; (2) water vapor is transported
through the atmosphere by winds; (3) water vapor condenses into cloud droplets and
crystals; (4) cloud particles aggregate by coalescence and accretion processes into
larger liquid and solid drops that fall as precipitation to the surface; (5) continental rivers,
aquifers, and ocean currents transport the water through the land and ocean reservoirs.
On average, as much water precipitates to Earths surface as evaporates. On average,
as much atmospheric water is transported to continental regions as is discharged by
continental rivers and ground-water aquifers back to the oceans.
Water has a critical impact on both surface conditions and the atmospheric circulation.
The conversion of liquid and solid water into water vapor results in a local latent cooling;
without this cooling, the land surface would warm, much like hot pavement or the sand of
subtropical deserts. On average, the latent cooling at Earths surface is balanced by the
latent heat released in the atmosphere when water vapor is converted to liquid and solid
cloud droplets and crystals. This transfer of latent energy can be huge; the flux of latent
energy in the atmosphere is a major component of the overall transport of energy from
the equator to the poles. In general, latent heat is the principal source of energy that
drives cyclogenesis and sustains weather systems like convective cells that generate
tornadoes and tropical storms that evolve into hurricanes.
Water molecules also have a large impact on Earths radiation budget. They are strong
absorbers of infrared radiation, and the resulting greenhouse effect of atmospheric water
vapor is, by far, the strongest determinant of the Earth's surface climate. Atmospheric
humidity is highly variable and responds very effectively to changes in atmospheric
temperature, thus providing a highly effective feedback mechanism for amplifying global
climate change induced by other factors. Furthermore, whereas clouds contribute about
50% of Earths planetary albedo, the absorption of terrestrial radiation by clouds is
equivalent to that of all "greenhouse gases" other than water vapor. Radiative heating or
cooling is a major contribution to the diabatic processes that cause air parcels to rise or
sink in the atmosphere and thereby power weather systems. The net radiant energy
reaching Earths surface controls temperature, drives evapotranspiration, and sustains
photosynthesis and the Earth's primary biological productivity. Being able to measure
and forecast the evolution of the spatial and temporal patterns in water vapor and clouds
is key to addressing climate, water resources, and ecosystem problems.
As it cycles through terrestrial regions, water strongly influences other element cycles,
notably those of carbon and nitrogen. Water availability often regulates the growth of
land plants and thereby the rate of nitrogen uptake and carbon assimilation. Moisture
and temperature are the primary variables that control soil respiration. And water, as the
universal solvent, carries nitrogen, carbon and a host of other chemicals over and
beneath the Earths surface to the world oceans. Furthermore, there is growing
*

John Aber, Roger Bales, Jean Bahr, Keith Beven, Efi Foufoula-Georgiou, George M. Hornberger (Chair),
Gabriel Katul, James L.Kinter III, Randy Koster, Dennis Lettenmaier, Diane McKnight, Kathleen Miller,
Kenneth Mitchell, John Roads, Bridget R Scanlon, Eric Smith

awareness that nonlinear feedbacks exist between vegetation and climate within the
coupled Earth system (e.g., Pielke et al. 1999b). The notion that changes in inland water
chemistry are linked via complex feedback systems to other changes in the global water
cycle is also gaining support (Vorosmarty and Meybeck 1999).

A global cycle with regional and local impacts

An adequate fresh water supply is critical for the maintenance of human populations and
ecosystems. Given its importance, any threat to the reliability and sustainability of this
supply deserves focused attention. Unfortunately, such threats are now increasing in
direct response to human pressures. The demand for water, for example, is undeniably
increasing with human population; the world's population has more than doubled since
1950, and it is likely to increase by an additional 3 billion by 2050. Meanwhile, the
supply of usable water is decreasing due to pollution and other stresses. Some
projections suggest that rapid increases in demand coupled with limited supplies will
lead to the development of a global water crisis in a matter of decades, with the precise
timing of this crisis point uncertain due to limited knowledge of the world's water
resources (Rodda, 1995). On the other hand, too much water over a brief period of time
can be a curse. Flooding exacts tremendous economic costs (Box 1.1), and the outlook
is for even higher costs as more people move into floodplains and into areas vulnerable
to hurricanes.
Problems of water supply and hydrological extremes tend to manifest themselves at the
"local" or "regional" scale. The storm systems that produce damaging floods may be
highly concentrated over individual river basins, and a severe drought might span only a
few contiguous U.S. states. Nevertheless, addressing these problems scientifically
requires a global view of the water cycle, for it is the global water cycle that drives local
and regional behavior. A region's drought, for example, may be instigated by remote
sea surface temperature anomalies. Locally heavy rains may simply be a local
manifestation of a complex, continental-scale atmospheric pattern. The local
phenomena that affect local water supply and hydrological extremes -- i.e., that have a
direct impact on society and ecosystems -- must be understood in the context of the
global system. Such scientific understanding can contribute to the development of more
effective land and water resource management and hazard mitigation strategies, e.g.,
through improved predictive skill.
To date, our ability to assess variability in water resource availability and to predict and
mitigate impacts of hydrologic extremes has been hampered by large uncertainties
associated with our limited understanding of the global scale water cycle. Uncertainties
in estimates of the water storage in, and fluxes among, the cycle's various reservoirs
lead to significant errors in quantifying the overall global water balance (Chahine, 1992;
Rodda, 1995) in quantifying, for example, the geographical variations of fresh water
availability. Also, our limited understanding of the many physical processes associated
with the water cycle (such as rainfall production) has hampered our ability to model them
accurately, and modeling is fundamental to any prediction strategy. For example,
although climate models can accurately reproduce some aspects of the atmospheric
circulation (e.g., atmospheric pressure distributions), they are largely deficient in
reproducing variations in the water cycle (e.g., variations in relative humidity,
precipitation, clouds, runoff, and groundwater). Deficiencies in the ability of general
circulation models (GCMs) to reproduce certain large-scale aspects of precipitation were
highlighted recently in simulations of El Nio and La Nia oscillations (Soden, 1999,
2000).

In short, current scientific understanding of the water cycle is largely limited by

measurement uncertainty and deficiencies in physical models of the system. Of course,
addressing these two issues will not solve all of societys water-related problems, since
many of the problems stem from inefficient management practices and sociopolitical
constraints. Nevertheless, an improved scientific understanding is absolutely critical for
optimal usage of the resource. Only through such understanding can we quantify and
predict variations in the water cycle, variations that have significant impacts on terrestrial
life. Again, the importance of quantifying and predicting these variations is steadily
increasing in the face of increasing human demand and stress on the environment, with
or without global climate change.
If we are to solve the critically important water-related problems facing society in a timely
manner, we must go beyond a piecemeal or haphazard approach to the required
research. Properly addressing the relevant multi-faceted and interconnected scientific
issues requires an integrated research program devoted to improving the quantification
and scientific understanding of the water cycle at a broad spectrum of scales (global,
regional and local). The program must emphasize studies of feedbacks among
processes acting at the different scales, and it must emphasize explicit couplings with
the global cycles of energy, carbon, and nutrients in order to reduce uncertainties in
estimates of water quantity and quality, water movement, and impacts on ecosystems. It
should focus in addition on determining the degree to which human activities influence
the water cycle. Improved understanding is key to enhancing our ability to predict
variations in the water cycle and their long-term resource and ecological consequences.

Natural climate variability and human activities have the potential to

perturb the fluxes and storages that make up the global water cycle, and
these perturbations can have significant societal impacts.
For convenience, variability in hydrological processes can be categorized in terms of
three basic time scales: short-term (weather), seasonal-to-interannual, and long-term
(climate change). The variability associated with each time scale is associated with
specific research questions and societal impacts.
Short-term variability, often interpreted as "weather", refers to processes spanning
minutes to days. Much of the variability at this time scale is induced by chaotic
atmospheric dynamics, which prevents the prediction of a given day's weather weeks in
advance. Short-term perturbations in the water cycle that affect society include
rainstorms and, in the extreme, flood events (Box 1.1). Progress on this front requires
analyses of controls on such physical processes as vapor transport, cloud formation,
rainfall generation, and runoff production.
Seasonal-to-interannual variability occurs over time scales of months to years and is in
part determined by ocean and land processes and their impacts on the atmosphere.
Although the time scale of memory in the atmosphere is generally short, random
variability or persistent general circulation anomalies (such as blocking) can produce
significant seasonal variations. Furthermore, the atmosphere's connection to the land
and ocean, each of which is characterized by a much longer memory, can induce
droughts and pluvial periods extending over seasons to years, with potentially severe
consequences for agriculture and water resources (Box 1.2). The El Nio / La Nia
cycle is the most obvious example of a coupled phenomenon that produces significant

seasonal-to-interannual variability, and it is known to influence the global and regional

water cycle far away from the tropical Pacific where it originates. Over land, research
must also focus on such issues as soil moisture physics, groundwater transport, snow
processes, organic matter retention, and nutrient fluxes.
Variability on longer time scales reflects shifts in long-term climate that may or may not
be human-induced. Much evidence of natural long-term variability is found in
paleoclimatic records; paleolimnological records indicate prolonged drought conditions in
the tropics lasting 100 years or more as well as equally prolonged periods of very wet
conditions (e.g. Street-Perrott, 1995). Historical data suggest that relative to earlier
decades of the 20th century, the present-day U.S. precipitation is characterized by more
higher-volume events (e.g. Karl and Knight, 1998). Changes in land cover and land use
have been extensive in the U.S. and in the rest of the world, and these changes have
local, regional, and even global impacts on the hydrological cycle (e.g. Pielke et al.,
1999; Toon, 2000), some of which can be considered permanent, for all practical
purposes (Box 1.3). According to climate model predictions (IPCC, 1996), the most
significant manifestation of CO2-induced global warming would be an intensification of
the global water cycle (increase in global water fluxes), leading to increased global
precipitation, faster evaporation, and a general
exacerbation of extreme weather and
What scientific
hydrological regimes, floods, and droughts. In
advances are needed to
fact, an increase in atmospheric water vapor
determine whether or
exacerbates CO2-induced warming because
water vapor is itself a strong greenhouse gas.
not the global water

cycle is intensifying and

Clearly, regardless of their origin, long term

to what degree human
changes in the quantity and quality of water
activities are
available for use by municipalities, agriculture
and industry can have far reaching societal
responsible?
impacts. Thus, the possibility of such change
has strong implications for water resource
planning (e.g. Lettenmaier and Sheer, 1991). Furthermore, long term changes in the
water cycle will be strongly coupled to changes in biogeochemical processes in
terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, because water is the main transporting medium
for organic carbon and major nutrients (Box 1.4) and because nutrients influence
terrestrial vegetation processes (e.g. Aber, 1999). Important biogeochemical
transformations of C and N species occur within terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and
the rates of critical transformations depend on seasonal patterns of the water cycle. The
mechanisms underlying changes in the coupled water, C and N cycles involve
interactions among many components of the Earth system and must be established in a
more quantitative manner to be used for evaluating potential societal impacts.
The impacts of water cycle variability on human society are very real and are well
recognized -- the National Drought Policy Commission, for example, charged by
Congress to "provide advice and recommendations on the creation of an integrated,
coordinated Federal policy designed to prepare for and respond to serious drought
emergencies", recently submitted their report. Given such impacts, society has a vested
interest in understanding water cycle variability and in predicting specific variations when
possible, so as to minimize supply shortfalls and infrastructure damage.

In the face of increasing water demand and other stresses, traditional

strategies for managing water supply, agriculture, natural ecosystems, etc.,
are becoming inadequate, and improvements in prediction are becoming
critical.
Water management in the U.S. and other nations has traditionally focused on
manipulating and safeguarding the supplies of freshwater to meet the needs of users.
Water managers, however, faced with increasing demand, increasing development
costs, capital shortages, government fiscal restraint, less favorable storage reservoir
sites, and increasing concern for the environment, are beginning to rethink the traditional
approaches to water management and to experiment with new ones [USGS,
http://water.usgs.gov/watuse/wutrends.html]. It has been reported that global water use
efficiency will need to double over the next 25 years if the world's food supply is to keep
pace with population (ES&T 1999). As water resources are utilized more fully throughout
the world, precise, reliable, and non-traditional management tools become increasingly
necessary.
The present document does not focus on water management. It does, however, focus
on the development and exploitation of new scientific methods and results that can
potentially improve significantly the efficiency of water management, particularly if the
scientific advances are coordinated to
meet the needs of water, land-use, and
What scientific advances are
natural resource management. Of course,
required to enhance our
there will always be numerous political and
ability to predict the effects
regulatory issues involved in implementing
of changes in land use,
water management strategies. Also, as
water resource management addresses
vegetation and cryospheric
wetland, fishery, invasive species and
processes on the cycling of
other aquatic biota issues, improved
water and important
integration of flow regime, carbon and
nutrient cycling, and biotic responses at a
biogeochemical
range of time scales will be required.
constituents?
Techniques for assessing water quality in
addition to water quantity are critically
needed. The potentially large impacts of management strategies on both the
environment and society must be assessed. Uncertainties in the water cycle and its
connection to the carbon and nitrogen cycles limit our ability to make these
assessments.
One of the most promising scientific approaches that can be applied to water
management is predictive modeling. Through an understanding of the physical
mechanisms that control variability in the water cycle, and through knowledge of the
current state of the system, models have the potential to predict variations in the water
cycle over a range of time scales including the variations that affect freshwater supply
(e.g., variations in precipitation, runoff, and groundwater levels). Although water
managers have recognized the usefulness of predictive modeling for decades, the
accuracy of predictions even today is strongly limited. Fundamental limits to
predictability (as induced, e.g., by atmospheric chaos) have yet to be ascertained but are
presumably far from being reached. To attain the predictability that is possible,
enhanced observational databases are needed, both for improving existing model
formulations and for initializing model states. Also, model resolutions are generally too

coarse due to inadequate computer resources; as the U.S. develops the next generation
of supercomputing resources, the resources required for water cycle simulation and
prediction must be included in the planning.
Improved prediction also has obvious implications for dealing with rapidly changing
human and ecosystem vulnerability to hydrological extremes. The Mississippi floods of
1993, which resulted in large economic losses throughout urban and agricultural areas
of the Midwest, and the devastation to coastal areas caused by hurricanes Andrew and
Floyd are but a few of the recent examples of this vulnerability. Planning for and
mitigating the impacts of these hydrologic extremes requires significant improvements in
predictive capabilities at all three time scales. Our limited understanding of the linkages
between the water cycle and other components of the global climate system is a major
impediment to improving such predictions.

New technologies for measuring, modeling and organizing data related to

the Earth's water cycle offer the promise of fundamental improvements in
our understanding of water cycle processes and how they relate to
management decisions. The time is ripe to take advantage of these
opportunities.
Remotely sensed observations of the land, ocean, and atmosphere from satellites and
suborbital platforms (e.g., aircraft and balloons) provide synoptic high-resolution
coverage that is unprecedented in the geophysical sciences. The new information
available from remote sensing technology may initiate important shifts in the conceptual
basis for these sciences, as indicated by Entekhabi et al. [1999] for hydrology.
Examples of the burgeoning use of remotely sensed data abound. Improved rainfall
estimates are being derived from ground-based radar and from satellite. Satellite
estimates of sea surface temperature, height, and winds can aid in the initialization of
coupled ocean-atmosphere seasonal forecast models, and satellite estimates of soil
moisture may someday initialize the land component of these models. Satellite-based
water vapor measurements are assimilated into weather prediction models. Remotely
sensed data have been the basis for many of the advances in snow hydrology that allow
prediction of basin response to the inputs of water, energy, and chemicals (e.g. Bales
and Harrington, 1995). Biotic parameters, including land cover (vegetation), the extent
of riparian wetlands and in-stream algal and plant growth, may be detected through
remote sensing. These examples, of course, are not at all comprehensive; the list goes
on and on.
It is critical to recognize that remote sensing can radically improve the usefulness of
conventional observation networks but cannot replace them. A base of spatially and
temporally consistent data is essential for work on the water cycle. Determination of
variability necessarily involves comparisons of data collected at different times and
places, and consistency is essential to ensure that any apparent variability is in the
underlying hydrological variables rather than in data collection techniques. The archiving
of current observations must be continued, and it must be enhanced where necessary to
ensure that valuable data are not lost. The operation of existing networks and systems
must be continued in order to provide current data that can be compared meaningfully
with past records. In addition, the existing networks and systems must be expanded
spatially to ensure that ground-truth data will be available for calibration and verification
of new observational systems, especially remote sensing ones. Finally, the importance
of preserving, maintaining, expanding, and enhancing the existing base of auxiliary

scientific data and information needed for conducting modeling, process, and budget
studies must be recognized. Examples of such auxiliary data are digital elevation
models (DEM), hydrologic derivative DEM products such as stream-channel networks
and drainage-basin boundaries, land-use-land-cover data, NDVI data, other GIS data
coverages, digital orthophotoquads, and satellite imagery (Landsat, AVHRR, GOES,
etc.).
Remote sensing is not the only new technology worthy of mention. Surface and
borehole geophysical methods, for example, have led to great improvements in our
ability to characterize subsurface flow regimes, which heretofore have been difficult to
quantify (NRC 2000). New developments in ground based instruments, possibly
employing nanotechnology, have the potential to allow automated measurements in
remote locations that could be used to ground-truth remote sensing observations. New
approaches to interpreting stable water isotopes in terms of water cycle processes are
being developed and applied (e.g., Kendall and McDonnell 1998) and it is important that
this work be integrated with water-cycle research. The continued development of data
assimilation methods for weather and climate prediction, which has led to remarkable
progress in the estimation of global water and energy fluxes, is essential. The
application of the same techniques to hydrology (e.g. McLaughlin, 1995) or
biogeochemistry can yield quantitative data for variables that have been heretofore
unavailable. Significant progress has been made in the validation of physical models
and in the analysis of how calibration can improve their performance (e.g., Wood et al.,
1998), and improvements in modeling have also been directed to problems of water
management (e.g. Wagner, 1995).
Overall, the continuing advances in the global observation and modeling of the Earth
system provide greatly enhanced prospects
for the quantitative estimation and prediction
What scientific advances
of the water fluxes between the ocean,
are required to reduce
atmosphere, land, and cryosphere over a
substantially the losses or
variety of time and space scales. The
improved estimation and prediction can in
costs associated with
turn lead to large benefits for water, land,
water-cycle calamities such
and biological resource management and
as droughts, floods and
thus regional economies if the information
coastal eutrophication?
(along with the associated uncertainties) is
communicated effectively to decisionmakers and the public. Various recent predictability studies (e.g., Shukla, 1998) and the
recent success of forecasts related to the 1997-98 El Nio (Barnston et al., 1999; Mason
et al., 1999) indicate that scientific advances can indeed have a positive impact on
important societal problems.

Critical elements of an integrated water cycle science program

Recognizing that a new investment in water cycle science is needed, the USGCRP
appointed a Water Cycle Study Group (Appendix A) to develop a Science Plan.
Understanding the global water cycle is central to the understanding of the potential
human, economic and ecological consequences of global environmental change and/or
increasing water demand. Water is at the heart of both the causes and the effects of
climate change. It is essential to establish rates of and possible changes in precipitation,
evapotranspiration, and cloud water content. Better time series measurements are
needed for water runoff, river flow and the quantities of water involved in various human

uses (NRC, 1998). The pressing needs of water resource sustainability (for both
human society and ecosystems) and hydrologic hazard mitigation motivate the research
plan presented here.
What is needed in such a water cycle science program goes beyond simply accelerating
research that is currently underway. The water-related problems facing society are too
complex for any individual scientist or any individual agency to handle alone. A
haphazard approach to these problems, with a vague hope that somebody somewhere
will fit together all of the pieces of the puzzle, will not be effective. An integrated
research plan is essential. The present plan aims to provide an integrated framework for
addressing the numerous and multifaceted aspects of the problem in a coordinated
and thus efficacious -- way.
Note that this program must stress ways of developing scientific understanding of water
and its movement in the earth system that are not constrained by the traditional
disciplines atmospheric science, physical oceanography, hydrology, and terrestrial and
aquatic ecology that have structured our study of water problems to date. The future
opportunities and challenges exist across the disciplines, and it is at the boundaries of
the traditional disciplines where the new frontiers lie. For instance, hydrologists have
extensively studied the mechanisms by which precipitation leads to the generation of
runoff, but the integrated effects that lead to the dynamics of freshwater delivery to the
oceans, and its space-time variability, are largely ignored by the oceanographic
community. Likewise, hydrologists have interacted only to a limited extent with the
atmospheric sciences community, which has as a central interest precipitation formation
but generally is much less interested in the space-time variability that controls surface
hydrological processes. A more balanced understanding of the fluxes, storage, and
dynamics controlling movement of water and its quality in the land, atmosphere, and
oceans will be the central challenge to water cycle science in the 21st century. In
addition, the water science must interface properly with the social sciences and societal
users to ensure the translation of scientific progress into societal benefit.
Thus, in designing the plan, the interdisciplinary nature of the water cycle and its impacts
was given much consideration. Still, given the complexity of the Earth system and the
intricate connections between the various components, the plan could not hope to be
fully comprehensive (i.e., involve every relevant discipline) and still be economically and
logistically feasible. For purely practical reasons, we were forced to "draw the line" at
certain disciplinary boundaries. The research plan proposed herein essentially focuses
on the atmospheric and land surface components of the water cycle and their
interactions with the biogeochemistry of carbon and nitrogen. It includes studies of the
fluxes between the ocean and atmosphere, but it does not include studies of the ocean
circulation itself, even though ocean circulation is recognized as being important.
Similarly, water vapor transport and distributions are considered explicitly, but many of
the associated impacts on atmospheric chemistry are not. Fortunately, research in
these and other related areas will be proceeding in parallel with the research proposed
here. For a comprehensive view of the global water cycle, we will rely on ample
communication with the scientists performing this parallel research.
In preparing this plan, the Water Cycle Study Group had the benefit of consultation with
many scientists (Appendix B). The Group was informed about current programs, both
within the United States and internationally (Appendix C). In our deliberations, we
decided that the plan should focus on the science needed: (i) to determine whether the

global water cycle was intensifying, (ii) to enhance our ability to make useful predictions,
and (iii) to develop information that would mitigate the effects of hydrological calamities
(see the highlighted text boxes above). We concluded that three key science questions
could be used to structure the science planning process:
1. What are the underlying causes of variation in the water cycle on both global and
regional scales, and to what extent is this variation induced by human activity?
2. To what extent are variations in the global and regional water cycle predictable?
3. How will variability and changes in the cycling of water through terrestrial and
freshwater ecosystems be linked to variability and changes in cycling of carbon,
nitrogen and other nutrients at regional and global scales?
The next three chapters in this document discuss the science questions individually and
present a suite of initiatives aimed at addressing them. These questions are not truly
independent of one another (e.g., observations of hydrological and meteorological
variables are essential for all three science questions), but they do provide a useful
framework for presenting the science needs. Initial priorities for research, culled from the
initiatives outlined in Chapters 2 through 4, are presented in Chapter 5.

CHAPTER 2 -- WHAT ARE THE UNDERLYING CAUSES

OF VARIATION IN THE WATER CYCLE ON BOTH
GLOBAL AND REGIONAL SCALES, AND TO WHAT
EXTENT IS THIS VARIATION INDUCED BY HUMAN
ACTIVITY?
1.0 SYNOPSIS
Societal Need: Understanding the variability of the hydrological cycle, and how
it relates to water resources availability and water-related natural hazards
What is missing scientifically?
Adequate observations (and historic reconstructions) to quantify the
variability of relevant water and energy cycle components
Understanding of underlying mechanisms and processes that control
variability in the water cycle
Modeling approaches that can reproduce observed variability of the water
cycle at spatial and temporal scales relevant for water management
Approaches to partition natural and human-caused variability in the water
cycle
What do we propose?
An observation program utilizing new and evolving technologies to
characterize variability in the water cycle over a range of spatial and
temporal scales
A new commitment to field studies that focus on process water and energy
cycle uncertainties
Concurrent with field studies, a model development initiative that will allow
models to reproduce observed variability and help them to discriminate
natural and anthropogenic sources of variability in the water cycle
Advanced data assimilation system and products to unify disparate
observations, and in so doing reduce uncertainty in estimates of water cycle
variability.
Use of water and energy budget diagnostics to evaluate model performance
and to characterize variability in the water cycle.

2.0 BACKGROUND
Hydrological manifestations of societal relevance generally involve the variability of the
water cycle. This variability is evidenced, for example, in droughts, which can severely
strain water and energy supplies, and floods, which are usually accompanied by
damage to infrastructure and sometimes by loss of life. The demands on finite water
resources and the potential damage from droughts and floods are increasing steadily

with world population. Quantifying and understanding the variations in the water cycle - and the extent to which humans can modify them or work around them -- is thus
becoming increasingly essential.
Any useful analysis of hydrological variability must consider a broad range of spatial
scales. At the global scale, water transport is controlled by atmospheric circulation
patterns, which are determined, in part, by ocean temperatures and evaporative fluxes.
Land-ocean contrasts lead to the development of monsoons, which have a tremendous
impact on the climates of many regions. At continental scales, precipitation at the land
surface is balanced by evapotranspiration, surface and subsurface moisture storage,
and streamflow, and the quantification of this latter flux and its dependence on complex
continental geomorphology and land cover is critical to the management of water
resources over large areas. At regional and local scales, convective precipitation is
influenced by the structure of the boundary layer and thus perhaps by the nature of the
land surface, which is subject to human modification. At these scales, soil, vegetation,
geological, and topographic structures lead to unique streamflow and groundwater
behavior.
Characterization of hydrological variability also requires the consideration of multiple
time scales. Variability at decadal and longer time scales is evidenced, for example, in
the Pacific Decadal Oscillation at decadal time scales, and in the paleoclimatic record
at even longer (decadal to century) time scales. The El Nino phenomenon, which can
have significant hydrological impacts throughout the world, has a typical repeat interval
of several years. Droughts occur over seasonal to interannual time scales, whereas
individual precipitation events and the physical mechanisms that control them occur
over time scales of minutes to hours. Superimposed on these modes of variability are
slow permanent trends that may be caused in part by increasing concentrations of
greenhouse gases and land cover change.
The multitude of relevant space and time scales and the complex ways in which they
interact have limited past efforts to quantify the variability of the hydrological cycle.
Quantifying variability at decadal and longer time scales is necessarily limited by the
length of the instrumental record and by the sparseness of useful paleoclimatic proxies.
Even the variability at shorter time scales, however, is not well known due to incomplete
spatial coverage of in situ measurements and complications in interpreting the available
satellite data. (See Section 4 of this chapter.) Thus, current measurements of water
cycle components need to be enhanced spatially and maintained over time. Also,
because logistical and economic constraints prevent the comprehensive measurement
of water cycle variations, the enhanced measurements must by supplemented by better
understanding of the physical mechanisms that control the variability. Improved
physical models that can better "fill in the gaps" of the measurement record, using
techniques such as four-dimensional data assimilation (4DDA) could then be
developed. Deficiencies in our current understanding of the relevant physical
processes is demonstrated by the disparity of model behavior seen in various model
intercomparison projects, such as the Project for the Intercomparison of Landsurface
Parameterization Schemes (PILPS) and the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison
Project (AMIP) (see e.g. Henderson-Sellers et al., 1993; Gates et al, 1992).
Better process understanding and associated improvements in physical models should
also lead to improved hydrological prediction, as discussed in Chapter 3, and to

improved understanding of the coupling of the water, carbon, and nitrogen cycles as
discussed in Chapter 4. In addition, improvements in physical process understanding
and modeling are critical to the separation of natural variability in the water cycle from
human-induced variability. Only by understanding and modeling the relevant
mechanisms can we establish, for example, whether CO2-induced warming can induce
an intensification of the global hydrological cycle, leading to increases in global mean
precipitation and to the increased occurrence of hydrological extremes. A better picture
of anthropogenic impacts on the global water cycle will eventually emerge only through
a combination of better observations, process understanding, and modeling. Globalscale anthropogenic change may perhaps best be inferred by changes in selected
indices, which may be composites of seemingly disparate quantities. For example,
observed changes in basin runoff, global precipitation, groundwater levels, or largescale water vapor transport may, taken individually, be inconclusive, since different
facets of natural variability obscure them each. However, specific geographical
patterns of changes in these quantities, occurring together, may clearly point to human
influence. Identification of such broad signatures, if they exist, will require significant
interdisciplinary coordination. Once a unique signature of human activities on the water
cycle is determined, it can be used to guide monitoring strategies and data recovery
efforts.
In summary, society's need for a sustainable water supply, management and
sustainability of aquatic environments, as well as the control of various natural hazards,
such as flooding, implies the need for the improved quantification of variability in the
global water cycle and for improved understanding and reliable modeling of the
mechanisms that control it, including those mechanisms influenced by humans. These
needs are captured in the three goals outlined below.

3.0 GOALS
3.1 Goal 1: Quantify variability in the water cycle
Why? Water is one of the most basic needs of human civilization. Manifestations of
variability in the water cycle at the land surface, like floods and droughts, critically affect
the way in which humans interact with their environment, and at the most basic level,
the ability of populations to survive [see Box 2.1]. Nevertheless, many facets of water
cycle variability have never been adequately quantified. We do not yet have the data
needed to address many water-related problems (both current and upcoming) of critical
importance to society.
How? By taking advantage of new observing methods that show great promise for
quantifying the variability of the water cycle. Remote sensing will play an increasingly
central role, particularly at global scales. Through these new methods and extensions
of traditional methods, the monitoring of hydrological variability will be more
comprehensive. Data assimilation and budget studies will be used to fill in
observational gaps and to help quantify uncertainties.

3.2 Goal 2: Understand the mechanisms underlying variability in the water

cycle
Why? Our current understanding of water cycle variability and how it propagates
through the atmospheric, land, and oceanic branches of the cycle is only in its infancy.
Nevertheless, understanding the variability is critical. Regardless of the advances
achieved under Goal 1, logistical and economic considerations will limit the extent to
which many parts of the water cycle can be measured. Understanding the processes
underlying water cycle variability will help us to model them better and thereby fill in the
gaps in the observational record, through techniques such as four-dimensional data
assimilation (4DDA). Furthermore, an understanding of the underlying mechanisms will
ultimately lead to an improved capacity for prediction (see chapter 4) and an improved
understanding of human interaction with the global water cycle, the overall goal of this
science plan.
How? By devising a coherent strategy, built on a foundation of improved observations,
that leads to an improved understanding of causality. Central to this strategy are
carefully designed process studies aimed at quantifying the relevance and rates of
poorly understood processes and a hierarchy of modeling systems (including coupled
land-atmosphere-ocean models) that are able to reproduce the physical processes that
control the fluxes and storage of water in each domain.

3.3 Goal 3: Distinguish human-induced and natural variations in the water

cycle
Why? The global hydrological cycle is naturally highly variable. In addition to the
natural signal, humans may or may not be imparting an additional signal widespread
land-use change or CO2-induced warming, for example, may be driving the water cycle
to a state it would not naturally attain. Identifying global and/or regional changes in the
water cycle that can be related to human activities is essential for guiding further
actions.
How? By improving, through process studies, field campaigns, and other observational
analyses, the ability of models to reproduce observed variability in the water cycle over
a range of space and time scales. Through the use of these models and additional
observational studies, we must determine the signature of human activities on the
water cycle. We must examine the observational record for evidence of this signature
and establish new observational and modeling strategies needed to monitor human
impacts into the future.

4.0 PROGRAM ELEMENTS

Five elements (observations, process studies, modeling, 4DDA, and budget studies)
provide the programmatic foundation that will allow the three goals outlined above to be
achieved. Some of the main connections between these elements, or tools, and the
three goals are outlined in Figure 2.1. Quantifying the variability in the water cycle
requires direct observations, data assimilation products, and budget studies.
Identifying the underlying causes of variability requires detailed process studies and
reliable modeling of the relevant physical processes. Physical models are critical for

identifying human contributions to variability, if they exist. Observations are a critical

part of process studies; both process studies and observations can contribute to
studies addressing human impacts. Though not all inclusive, the figure also shows
some of the connections between the elements, such as the reliance of data
assimilation on both modeling and observations. Each of the five program elements is
now described in turn.

Figure 2.1: Interaction between five program elements and goals comprising Science
Question 1

4.1 Program Element 1: Observations and Measurements

4.1.1 Water Vapor
Water vapor has traditionally been measured by balloon borne radiosondes, which also
can be used to measure wind. While these measurements have been the backbone of
the atmospheric observation network, there are serious limitations to the water vapor
measurements, especially in the upper troposphere. Limitations in the horizontal,
vertical, and temporal resolution of the moisture fluxes, as well as in the accuracy of
these measurements, are reflected in the difficulty of accurately estimating: (1) the
vertical distribution of water vapor, (2) the divergence of the wind field and related
vertical motions along with the vertical distribution of the horizontal and vertical
moisture fluxes, (3) the persistence and strength of transport by "jets" not resolved by
the network, and (4) the full diurnal cycle of the moisture fluxes. Estimation of water
vapor convergence is especially problematic because of the considerable spatial
variability of both wind and atmospheric humidity due to a number of mesoscale
phenomena. Most in situ observing systems cannot provide the measurement density
to quantify water vapor convergence on anything but large (continental) scales.

Fortunately, there are a number of new initiatives and instruments being developed to
overcome these deficiencies. Remote sensing methods (e. g. wind profiler and Doppler
radar velocity data) can be used to characterize low-level jets and other significant
features with high time andspace resolution. The AIRS/AMSU/HSB sounder system on
EOS-Aqua (to be launched in December 2000), will be followed by an operational
instrument on the NPP "bridging mission" and NPOESS. Repeated semi-quantitative
maps of atmospheric water vapor can be obtained at short time intervals from
geostationary platforms such as GOES-8, satellites and allow inferring both water vapor
amount and advection. In addition, water vapor sensors placed on commercial aircraft
offer the best prospects for systematically acquiring accurate reference humidity data in
the upper troposphere. Finally, estimates of water vapor fluxes can be improved
substantially through data assimilation (see Section 4.4).
4.1.2 Clouds
The distribution and optical properties of clouds determine the fraction of radiant energy
fluxes that is reflected or emitted to space and the fraction that is absorbed in the
atmosphere or at the surface. However, the physical processes that control the
distribution of water vapor in the atmosphere are not known in sufficient detail to
ascertain whether deep convection has a net moistening or drying effect on the upper
troposphere and whether this will have an important influence upon the radiation field.
Observation-based estimates of atmospheric transport of water are usually based on
the assumption that condensation is negligible. Although this is a useful assumption for
the lower tropospheric values and total column average, cloud water may be relatively
more important in the upper troposphere and may be critical for answering some of the
outstanding global change questions, including whether and/or the extent to which
water vapor provides an important positive feedback in greenhouse warming. Because
of the strong dependence of cloudiness upon the dynamics of weather systems and a
multiplicity of micro-scale processes down to the scale of condensation nuclei and
aerosols, the goal of relating the global cloud distribution and optical properties to basic
physical processes has so far been elusive. Although some of the data needed to
address these questions could be collected in intensive field campaigns, much of the
relevant data at the global scale are already being collected by geostationary satellites.
These data need to be better exploited in the future, in part by developing better
databases of cloud properties.
4.1.3 Precipitation
Historically, estimates of precipitation over land have been based on interpolation of
point measurements from rain gauges and snow measurements. However, this
approach suffers from sampling errors associated with the sparse areal density of
stations, particularly for convective rainfall. Additionally, systematic errors are
associated with biases in the location of gauges (especially in areas of high
topographic relief) and in the undercatch of precipitation by individual gauges,
especially for solid or intense precipitation. The new network of WSR-88D radars
(Klazura and Imy, 1993; Crum and Alberty, 1993) has the potential to improve
precipitation estimates in the United States by vastly increasing the effective sampling
density of precipitation. Ultimately, methods will be developed that optimally combine
information from both gauges and radars. An unanswered question is the value of
radar- derived precipitation estimates for quantitative climatological studies.
Precipitation estimates based on GOES satellite imagery (Hsu et al., 1996) have shown
some promise in regions where radar and gauges are unavailable (e.g., mountainous

areas), however the estimates are usually not sufficiently accurate for surface
hydrologic prediction. Outside the U.S., particularly in underdeveloped areas of the
world, existing surface based observations networks are grossly inadequate to
characterize the spatial distribution of precipitation. The deficiencies of the existing
network have become apparent in recent devastating floods in areas like Central
America (Hurricane Mitch) and Africa (Mozambique floods).
The estimation of precipitation over the oceans is even more problematic. In situ
measurements at island stations and on buoys are extremely sparse and may be
biased (precipitation is usually enhanced by the presence of an island). Thus,
considerable effort has been devoted to developing satellite-based remote sensing
methods. Infrared-based algorithms are primarily based on cloud-top temperature and
are meaningful only in the case of deep penetrating convection (prevalent in the
tropics). Microwave techniques are sensitive to the amount and distribution of
precipitating ice particles and water drops present in the atmospheric column. The
proposed Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) would provide 3-hourly 4 km precipitation
coverage over the globe between 55 degrees N and S and could be the cornerstone of
global observations over both ocean and land.
4.1.4 Evaporation
The fluxes of water vapor between Earth's surface and the atmosphere are not
amenable to routine measurement on the global scale. Evaporation is dependent upon
stability and turbulent characteristics of the planetary boundary layer, and these are
imperfectly known, even over the ocean. A focused research effort to improve the
formulation of boundary layer turbulent fluxes in atmospheric circulation models,
applied to operational four-dimensional data assimilation systems, weather forecasts,
and eventually climate models, appears the most promising avenue for acquiring
reliable values of global evaporation over the oceans and continents. It has been
shown (Hollingsworth, 1990; private communication) that even a relatively minor
modification in the parameterization of evaporation from the ocean could change
materially the global precipitation climatology.
Over land, sparse networks of evaporation pans provide some estimates of so-called
"potential" evaporation, but corresponding estimates of actual evapotranspiration are
limited by the complex controls imposed by soil water availability and vegetation [see
Box 2.2]. As a result, current estimates of evapotranspiration are only weakly linked to
observations. Some (e.g., Maurer et al. 1999) have suggested that evaporation is better
calculated as a residual from observed precipitation and atmospheric moisture
convergence or from a high-resolution surface hydrologic model. Specialized
equipment and technical expertise can, however, provide accurate evapotranspiration
measurements at small spatial scales. Tower observations of surface latent heat flux,
typically using eddy correlation or Bowen ratio approaches and covering footprints of a
few km2 or less, have begun to evolve in the U.S. through the Ameriflux network, in
Europe via Euroflux, and globally via Fluxnet. At present, the tower flux data resulting
from intensive field campaigns that preceded evolution of the above networks (e.g.,
FIFE, the HAPEX campaigns, BOREAS, and others) have been used in various model
evaluation and testing efforts. However, Fluxnet and related observations are not
presently distributed or archived via global data exchange networks (e.g., the GTS), nor
have methods yet evolved for assimilating or otherwise using the resulting data for

production of real-time (or retrospective, as in the case of reanalysis) estimates of

evapotranspiration fields.
4.1.5 Surface Runoff
Streamflow is an integrator of surface runoff, and therefore (absent seepage or
exfiltration from or to the river channel) the aggregate runoff (N) from a basin of any
size can be estimated from stream discharge observations at gauging stations, the
location of which defines an upstream drainage area. The USGS stream gauging
program routinely collected streamflow data for more than 7000 stations in the U.S.,
and daily streamflow records totaling more than 400,000 station-years are held in
USGS archives. Disaggregation of observed discharge into spatially distributed runoff
within a gauge's drainage area requires additional information or modeling, for which no
standard method currently exists. For this reason, water-balance analyses are most
readily conducted at or above the length scale of gauged basins. Furthermore, not all
runoff leaves a river basin through the surface river network. Groundwater flux across
the boundaries of small basins can be significant, and this possibility must be
considered case-by-case. Inter-basin transport of water via pipelines, irrigation ditches
and water-supply channels can also be a significant term in local water budgets.
Outside the U.S., particularly in less developed parts of the globe, runoff is more poorly
characterized, even for large rivers. For this reason, there is considerable uncertainty
in estimates of the total amount of freshwater leaving the continents. For instance,
riverine discharge of freshwater to the Arctic is an important driver of the thermohaline
circulation of the global oceans, which is believed to exert an important control on
climate. Yet, estimates of the long-term average discharge to the Arctic vary from 3300
to 4300 km3/yr (Bowling et al., 2000). A proposed satellite altimetry mission
(Vorosmarty et al., 1999) provides one option for the coherent global estimation of the
discharge of large rivers
4.1.6 Groundwater
Groundwater flow divergence (that is, lateral flow) and changes in groundwater storage
are not well observed globally. The location and density of groundwater monitoring
wells is largely determined by management concerns. Groundwater fluxes and storage
changes are currently considered only in a cursory manner, if at all, by climate
monitoring networks. Interpretation of monitoring well data is greatly complicated by
local effects, such as pumping, which makes extraction of regional fluxes, and hence
the surface water balance, difficult. In some cases, water balances can be conducted
over regions (e.g., large river basins) for which geologic considerations dictate that
groundwater flow across the boundaries is minimal. Even in these cases, however,
changes in groundwater storage can complicate interpretation of regional water
budgets. Present groundwater observation networks are unable to provide fundamental
information about the amount and interannual variability of three critical fluxes. First, in
systems ranging from large rivers to semi-arid region riparian areas, groundwatersurface water interchange is not currently well characterized (and is largely ignored in
the current generation of land-atmosphere models). Second, groundwater discharge to
estuaries and oceans is largely unmeasured, even though some studies have shown
that it can account for a substantial fraction of the net movement of fresh water from
the continents to the oceans (Zekster and Loaiciga, 1993). Third, observation networks
cannot discriminate among groundwater recharge mechanisms that may dominate over

different time scales. For example, diffuse vadose zone recharge in undeveloped arid
and semi-arid zones may be important over decade-to-century times, while on shorter
time scales water fluxes may involve net upward flow, not recharge, due to vapor
transport.
4.1.7 Soil moisture
In contrast to groundwater, the lateral movement of soil moisture (hence divergence)
can usually be ignored at large scales. However, temporal variations in soil moisture
play a critical role in the surface water balance. The surface hydrologic response - that
is, partitioning of precipitation into direct runoff and infiltration - is largely determined by
antecedent soil moisture. Soil moisture is a primary determinant of evaporative
resistance as well. As compared with groundwater storage, soil moisture generally
varies over much shorter time scales, typically at the scale of individual storms.
As in the case of groundwater, existing global networks poorly monitor soil moisture.
Direct observations are problematic, because soil moisture is strongly affected by soil
characteristics that typically vary over spatial scales of meters. For this reason, in situ
observation networks can only capture large-scale features of soil moisture storage
(Vinnikov et al 1999). New observation methods offer promise for better defining spatial
variations in near-surface moisture storage. The feasibility of both passive and active
(radar) monitoring of near-surface soil moisture has been examined extensively and
demonstrated in field experiments like SGP97 and SGP99 (Jackson et al., 1999; 2000).
4.1.8 Snow
Observation networks exist for estimating snow water equivalent in mountainous areas,
such as the western U.S., where snow water storage is an important source of runoff in
the spring and summer. These networks are mostly restricted to high elevation areas
where a disproportionate amount of runoff originates. Furthermore, they are designed
more to provide an index of future runoff than to provide aggregate measures of
moisture storage. Over large areas, such as the plains of the north central U.S. and
Canada, snow depth is monitored throughout the winter and spring due to its
implications for spring flooding and its effect on soil moisture in agricultural areas. The
monitoring network is, however, quite sparse, especially in areas of low population
density. Some success has been achieved in estimating snow extent using visible
band remote sensing (e.g., AVHRR and GOES are used by the NOAA Operational
Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center in St. Paul, MN). Passive microwave sensors have
been used to estimate water equivalent of snowpack over large areas, although these
methods are limited to dry snow conditions, and work best in areas, such as the plains,
where vegetation cover is sparse. Improvement in the spatial resolution of passive
microwave snow water estimates (currently about 25 km for products based on SSM/I)
is expected with the AMSR imaging radiometer, to be launched on both the EOS-Aqua
and Japanese ADEOS II satellites. However, neither the range of sensor frequencies
nor other characteristics are specifically designed for the measurement of snow
properties. NASA has included in its post-2002 plans an exploratory cold
seasons/regions process observing mission aiming, among possible objectives, to yield
higher resolution, global estimates of snow water storage.

4.1.9 Glaciers and Ice Caps

The small bodies of ice that make up the Earths glaciers and ice caps have been
undergoing significant recession, with measurable impacts on sea level, water
resources and ecosystems. Emerging space-based measurements offer the potential
to track changes in glacial area; however complimentary ground-based measurement
networks are limited. Ground-based measurements are needed to take full advantage
of this information for estimating mass changes. A second critical need is for
coordination of international measurements and data to assure the long-term viability of
glacier measurements.

An international program, GLIMS (Global Land Ice Measurements from Space) was
recently established to monitor the world's glaciers, primarily using data from Landsat and
the ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and reflection Radiometer)
instrument on EOS Terra. GLIMS aims to track the areal extent, location of snow line at
the end of the melt season, velocity field, and location of terminus of glaciers worldwide.
It is also planned to include a network of centers around the world that will monitor the
glaciers in their regions, and a database capable of storing and manipulating the data.
GLIMS' targets consist of all permanent land ice except the ``uniform'' interiors of
Antarctica and Greenland. The number of glaciers in the world is not well known. Two
large digital inventories (World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS) and Eurasia at the
National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)) have been combined and total about 80,000
glaciers; these inventories include latitude, longitude, an estimate of glacier area, and for
some glaciers a large number of scalar parameters describing the size and condition of the
glacier. Efforts like GLIMS will be essential to adequately monitor changes in storage of
water in glaciers and icesheets, which comprise a substantial fraction of the world's
reserves of freshwater.
4.1.10 Ice Sheets
Most of the Earths fresh water resides in the two major ice sheets, Greenland and
Antarctica, and most of their volume lies above sea level. Thus loss of only a small
fraction of this volume could have a significant effect on sea level. Over the past
century, sea level has risen 10-25 cm (IPCC, 1996), with the contribution from changes
in the ice sheets highly uncertain due to very limited measurement networks that
operate over the decade-to-century time frame.
The Greenland ice sheet spans an area of 1.75 106 km2, nearly a quarter of the area
6
3
of the continental United States, and with a volume of 2.65 x 10 km , it contains
enough water to raise the current sea level by 7 m. In addition, because of its high
albedo and large size, it plays an important role in the Arctic climate system acting as a
barrier to large-scale circulation, and through its moisture, energy and momentum
6
2
exchanges with the atmosphere. The Antarctic ice sheet has an area of 12.1 10 km ,
and a sea-level equivalent volume of about 70 m. Despite their importance in the
climate system, information on the current state of mass balance of the ice sheets, as
well as their behavior in a changing climate, is limited.
While space-based observations offer the best prospect for measuring the rate of icesheet-wide thickness change so long as the relevant programs are sustained for
decades new ground-based efforts are needed to both understand the causes of
observed changes, and provide validation for satellite measurements. NASAs

10

Program for Arctic Regional Climate Assessment (PARCA), has focused on the water
balance of the Greenland since the mid 1990s, closely linked to the expected 2001
launch of an altimetry mission for measuring ice-sheet elevations.
There are four main themes, accumulation, ablation, drainage glaciers and ice shelves.
First, shallow ice cores distributed over an ice sheet have proven to be absolutely
essential and very cost effective for establishing spatial accumulation in Greenland. A
comparable program is needed in Antarctica, and periodic re-surveys in Greenland are
also needed. Aircraft-radar surveys of shallow layers are needed to interpolate
accumulation estimates between cores. Second, an expanded, long-term network of
automatic weather stations is needed on both ice sheets to estimate ablation. In
Greenland there are currently only 20 stations in place, with about twice that number in
Antarctica. Distributed meteorological data should be accompanied by intensive
energy-balance studies and modeling. Third, intensive in situ and aircraft studies are
needed on major drainage glaciers and ice streams to estimate losses from the ice
sheets. The focus should be on areas that aircraft and satellite studies show to be
changing rapidly. Fourth, in situ and modeling studies of ice-shelf/ocean interactions is
key to understanding ice-shelf mass balance. Stability of the Antarctic ice shelves is
sensitive to climate change. Measurements are needed in ocean near and beneath the
shelves, along with glaciological measurements of ice-shelf mass balance.

4.2 Program Element 2: Process Studies

4.2.1 Water Vapor
An important source of error in climate predictions is the treatment of upper
tropospheric water vapor. Although the amount of moisture in the upper troposphere is
much lower than in the lower troposphere, it is known to have a strong influence upon
the longwave radiation and thus on the atmospheric greenhouse effect. Few
observations are available to constrain models, which as a result generally
inadequately represent cumulus clouds, detrained cirrus and appropriate upper
tropospheric humidity fields. This deficiency results primarily from insufficient
knowledge of the effects of clouds on the environment, mainly because of our inability
to resolve the microphysics of cloud systems in global climate models. It is anticipated
that this limitation will be alleviated by advances toward mesoscale-resolving global
atmospheric models, made possible by rapid progress in supercomputer performances,
in collaboration with global climate models that have traditionally developed crude
parameterizations based mainly on lower tropospheric observations. The latter
limitation can only be overcome by a focused research effort, based on a variety of
tools including in situ field studies, global sampling projects based on active and
passive observation from space (e. g. Cloudsat, PICASSO/CENA, and EOS-Aqua
satellite observing program) and numerical experimentation with a hierarchy of cloudresolving models (CRM) as well as global climate models.
Understanding the coupling between large-scale atmospheric condensation, cloud
formation, and dissipation as well as precipitation is critical. Some models have
attempted to have clouds where there was precipitation while others have attempted to
have clouds parameterized by the surrounding relative humidity, both which reduce
potential coupled cloud, water vapor, precipitation processes. Field studies like FIRE,
CAEMEX, etc. have enabled progress in this area, but there is a need for in situ field

11

measurements designed specifically to provide the information needed for better

representing cloud processes in models.
4.2.2 Precipitation and Cloud Microphysics
One of the main sources of error in precipitation prediction is the inability of current
atmospheric general circulation models to reproduce correctly the strength,
development and track of weather disturbances globally. This deficiency results in part
from insufficient spatial resolution that severely limits the ability to resolve topographic
features and the mesoscale structure of organized weather systems. Inadequate
representation of microphysical and turbulent properties of cloud systems is another
important source of precipitation prediction errors. It is anticipated that the former
limitation will be alleviated by an ongoing trend toward mesoscale-resolving global
atmospheric models, made possible by rapid progress in supercomputer performances.
The latter limitation can only be overcome by a focused research effort, based on a
variety of tools including in situ field studies, global sampling projects based on active
and passive observation from space (e. g. Cloudsat, PICASSO/CENA, and EOS-Aqua
satellite observing program) and numerical experimentation with a hierarchy of cloudresolving models (CRM).
At present, models can at best predict aggregated properties of convective precipitation
over the spatial scale of many storm cells. The inability of models to place precipitation
at the correct location at the correct time (even although the aggregated properties may
be reasonably well predicted) has lead to the use of observed precipitation rather than
model-computed precipitation in land data assimilation systems (see Section 4.4).
Analogous problems exist with respect to mesoscale orographic precipitation (Colle et
al, 1999). These questions have important implications for understanding of extreme
precipitation events as well.
With respect to convective precipitation, there appear to be two major gaps in
understanding. The first is the role of surface fluxes in setting up convective
instabilities, the second is the interactions that determine precipitation intensity once
the precursor is set. With respect to orographic precipitation, current understanding of
cloud microphysics, as represented in orographic parameterizations, tends to
overpredict the upslope precipitation maximum, particularly when the models are run at
increasingly high resolution (e.g., down to a few km). Furthermore, current models do
not predict the spatial extent of tropical systems well in many cases. Studies are
needed that focus on cloud microphysics during intense convective and orographic
events. Field studies like FIRE and CAEMEX have enabled progress in this area, but
there is a need for in situ field measurements designed specifically to provide the
information needed for better representing precipitation processes in models.
4.2.3 Land-atmosphere coupling
Over the last decade, a series of land-atmosphere intensive field experiments have
been conducted, including, among others, FIFE, HAPEX-MOBILHY, BOREAS, HAPEXSahel, and the ongoing LBA experiment in the Amazon. These experiments typically
consisted of a series of intensive observation periods, imbedded (at least in more
recent experiments, like BOREAS and LBA) within an ongoing observation period of
one or more years. They resulted in important improvements in the parameterization of
land surface and boundary layer processes in numerical weather prediction and climate

12

models. Many key questions remain unanswered, however, and model evaluation
projects like PILPS and GSWP have shown that observation programs must recognize
the role of moisture storage in the land system (primarily as snow and soil moisture).
This implies that observation periods must include a strategy that extends over multiple
annual cycles, while still observing surface and energy fluxes directly, to the greatest
extent possible.
These conditions pose important instrumentation, manpower, and financial challenges.
Nonetheless, we believe that the time has come to initiate a new paradigm for landatmosphere field campaigns. One such paradigm might be a set of global landatmosphere validation sites, perhaps consisting of nested catchments up to a maximum
scale at which atmospheric water budgets could reasonably be closed (some aspects
of the CASES design might be considered in this respect). These field sites would
contain certain semi-permanent instruments, including flux observations similar to those
being carried out in the BERMS BOREAS follow-on, but particular attention would be
given to the ability to close the surface and atmospheric energy balances over multiyear periods. Superimposed on the long-term observations might be a series of more
intensive observing periods, like those in FIFE and BOREAS. A second important
dimension of these sites would be to provide validation data for EOS-era, and beyond,
remote sensing platforms. Clearly, such an activity could leverage from other ongoing
and planned surface flux observations (e.g., AmeriFlux, EuroFlux, and Fluxnet), and
perhaps some of the research catchments. However, it has become clear, via activities
like PILPS, that the existing data sets and field programs are not sufficient to support
the needs of the community.
4.2.4 Cold seasons processes
Cold land areas form a major component of the Earths hydrologic system. Over 60
percent of the northern hemisphere land areas (and 30 percent of the total land area)
are snow covered in mid-winter, and about 10 percent are permanently covered by
snow and ice. Seasonal snow cover and glaciers store large amounts of fresh water
and are therefore critical components of the land surface hydrologic cycle. Seasonal
and permanent frost in soils reduce both infiltration into and migration of water through
soils, and severely reduce the amount of water that can be stored in soils. By reducing
infiltration, frozen soils can dramatically increase the runoff generated from melting
snow. The importance of seasonally and permanently frozen land surfaces extends far
beyond surface hydrologic processes, however. These areas also interact significantly
with the global weather and climate system, the geosphere, and the biosphere.
Whether surface water is liquid or frozen has important consequences for surface
albedo and net radiation, as well as for latent energy exchanges. For example, Betts
(1998) found that because numerical weather prediction models do not correctly
account for frozen surfaces, they tend to overestimate springtime latent energy fluxes,
leading to forecast errors of up to 5 C in lower tropospheric temperatures. In
seasonally frozen environments, vegetation-growing seasons are determined primarily
by the thawed period, and in turn the timing of spring thaw and the duration of the
growing season are strongly linked to the carbon balance of seasonally frozen
landscapes. Permanently frozen areas are also important components of global
biogeochemical budgets.
Much remains unknown about the effects of cold seasons processes on landatmosphere interactions. There is at present only a cursory understanding of how the

13

extent of snow and frozen ground affect weather and climate. Improved understanding
of these linkages will require a combination of field campaigns to help better
understand the physical processes, and in turn to improve their representation in
coupled land-atmosphere models, and corresponding model advances.
4.2.5 Ocean-land-atmosphere interactions
The most economically and socially significant occurrences of droughts and (to a
somewhat lesser extent) floods are those persisting for long periods over a large spatial
area. Such widespread and persistent events are associated with large scale and
persistent anomalies in the atmospheres general circulation, which features dominant
subcomponents such as the tropical Hadley and Walker circulation (including
monsoons) and the subtropical, mid-latitude, and arctic jet streams. These major
circulation components, and their seasonal cycle, are a complex thermodynamic
response to the seasonal march of the solar-driven distribution of surface heating
across the ocean and land surfaces of the earth. The resulting surface heating pattern
is a complex interaction between dynamic ocean currents, major land continents (size,
shape, position), continental orography (mountains, plateaus), sea-ice, and dynamically
changing coverage of vegetation, soil moisture, and snowpack over land. This surface
complexity gives rise to major, seasonally migrating, regional maxima and minima in
both sea-surface temperature (SST), land-surface temperature (LST), and sea surface
and land surface evaporation. These in turn can lead to anomalies in major clusters of
deep tropical convection, in such regions as Southeast Asia, central and northern
South America, and central Africa. Departures in the seasonal progression, position,
and intensity of these major centers of tropical deep convection are known to spawn
persistent anomalies in the atmospheric general circulation that can lead to persistent
drought and large area flooding.
The onset and position of major clusters of deep tropical and subtropical convection are
also influenced by land surface anomalies, such as soil moisture, surface albedo, the
extent and depth of snowpack in nearby regions of elevated terrain, and land-use
change (deforestation). Process studies are needed to document spatial and temporal
correlations between land-surface anomalies and convective rainfall and to propose
physical mechanisms for these correlations as suggested by observations, to then be
confirmed in follow-on modeling studies.
The likelihood of human-induced global warming has highlighted the interaction
between ocean, land, and atmosphere, especially as regards the different heat
capacities of ocean (high) and land (low), and the atmospheric response to both.
During the known warming trend of the 1980's and 1990's, the near surface
temperature change over land was amplified, especially in the northern hemisphere,
while that over oceans was moderated. This cold-ocean-warm-land pattern of northern
hemisphere winter temperature changes (the so-called COWL pattern) results in
changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation and the way in which the planetary
waves therein set-up relative to the land/sea boundaries. The recent COWL pattern
may be substantially attributed to the natural climate variability associated with the
superposition of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific-North American (PNA)
teleconnection pattern, and the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (Hurrell, 1996).
Measurements of stable water isotope concentrations in precipitation can potentially
provide unique information on the evaporative sources of the water (e.g., ocean versus

14

land), its prior phase transformations, and the nature of its transport through the
atmosphere. Research is needed on improving the interpretation of water isotopes
deposited in present-day and paleo-precipitation in terms of climatic parameters.
4.2.6 The land surface as an interface between fast and slow climate processes
The coupling of the land, biosphere, atmosphere, and oceans has a wide range of
characteristic time and space scales. There are, for example, slow (e.g., deep
groundwater and oceans) and fast (e.g., atmospheric water vapor and surface
moisture) components in this system. Variability and memory in the global water cycle
is due to both the cycling of water between reservoirs with various storage capacities
and the development of feedback dynamics resulting from linkages between the
reservoirs. Land memory, in particular, can significantly affect atmospheric variability
and predictability, especially over the interior of the continents. Because the
atmosphere is forcing the land surface, land memory feedback on this forcing can lead
to greater persistence of anomalies. When appropriately and accurately represented in
atmospheric forecast models, it may also lead to enhanced atmospheric predictability.
Better understanding of the role of fast and slow processes is needed in several
areas:
a) Relative contributions of local and remote forcing mechanisms to the total variability
of the coupled system(s) as related to storage in the component subsystems. The
time-scales associated with the reservoir size (surface and subsurface storage of
moisture) depend in complex ways on both climate and geology. These
connections need to be clarified if we are to develop a better understanding of
connections between the landscape, hydrologic response, and the persistence of
climate anomalies. Studies of surface and subsurface water budgets are needed to
better describe the surface water-groundwater interactions that operate over these
longer time scales.
b) The scaling properties of hydrologic variability as monitored or modeled at different
spatial and temporal resolutions. Hydrologic states such as soil moisture and snow
cover influence the surface flux of moisture and energy only under a limited set of
conditions that depend on surface properties and atmospheric forcing. There are
time scales (i.e. storm, inter-storm, and seasonal) and geographic regions in which
fluxes of moisture and energy are essentially independent of land-surface moisture.
There is a need to identify and investigate climatic regimes which prevent (or
enhance) surface conditions from influencing fluxes into the lower boundary of the
atmosphere. The seasonal cycle and interannual variability of each of these
regimes need to be understood as a prerequisite for predicting variability in regional
climates.
c) The role of local and regional feedback mechanisms are key research needs in this
area. An alternative mechanism to reservoir size that can establish land memory is
the presence of feedback mechanisms. If positive feedback mechanisms are
present in the coupled land-atmosphere system, an initial anomaly can persist
through reinforcement.

4.3 Program Element 3: Modeling

As indicated in Figure 2.1, physically-based global numerical models can contribute
significantly to the estimation of the components of the water cycle and their variations
(e. g., through four-dimensional assimilation of observational data), and they are critical

15

for assessing water cycle responses to human interventions. Improving the

performance of these models is equivalent to decreasing the errors they generate in
simulating observed hydrological fluxes, cloud distributions, water vapor transport, and
so on. These errors are typically large, as indicated in the PILPS and AMIP projects
noted above.
The errors, of course, can migrate between different components of the modeled
climate system. Consider as one example the coupling between the land surface and
the atmosphere. In nature, the variability of land surface hydrologic processes (e.g.,
stream discharge, groundwater recharge, or latent heat flux) is highly sensitive to the
amount, intensity, form, and spatial distribution of precipitation. A coupled modeling
system is subject to the same sensitivity, and thus errors in simulated precipitation can
lead to significant errors in simulated runoff, recharge, and evaporation.
Computational limits to model resolution clearly induce model error. When variability
that lies at the heart of a process (e.g., the variations in equivalent temperature that
control convection) cannot be resolved explicitly, the effects of that variability on the
process must be parameterized, and parameterizations of nonlinear processes are
inherently imperfect. By running the models under increased spatial and temporal
resolution, the reliance on parameterizations should decrease, and errors should be
reduced. Increased resolution requires increased computational power and the further
development of numerical methods such as distributed computing, massively parallel
computing, and semi-Lagrangian techniques.
Regardless of advances in computational technology, however, the resolution
achievable in these models will never be high enough to capture all of the relevant
hydrological variability, and thus some reliance on parameterization is unavoidable.
Improved parameterizations require an improved understanding of the physical
mechanisms that underlie the processes being modeled. In short, they require: (1)
detailed analyses of data generated in process studies and field experiments, and (2)
bright, creative minds that can translate the results of these analyses into parametric
representations that can efficiently and reliably reproduce the behavior of the more
complicated system. The first requirement is addressed in the previous section. The
second requirement implies a need for a well-supported program that encourages a
variety of scientists to direct their attention toward the parameterization problem.
Furthermore, success in modeling requires the adequate measurement of the physical
properties or parameters used by the model to describe the system. Thus, in addition
to the hydrological fluxes and reservoirs identified under section 4.1 above, detailed
measurements of auxiliary data are needed. Such data include, for example, soil
texture and vegetation properties.
The evaluation of hydrological models against observations is, of course, critical, but it
has been somewhat haphazard in the past. The machinery of the PILPS and AMIP
validation components have been experiment-specific, so that participating modelers
must often reformulate the packaging of their products several times. Support for the
standardization of inputs and outputs in validation studies could thus simplify validation
tests. A model test facility at a major existing center could further facilitate model
development and validation, as could the development of enhanced physics evaluation

16

strategies, such as single column models. Additional validation data sets are always
needed.
All of these issues must be addressed to improve model performance. Note, however,
that even a perfect model is useless unless it is applied effectively. Applying models to
problems of societal relevance, such as the identification of human signatures in the
climate record, requires both the careful design of relevant numerical experiments and
the proper interpretation of the experimental output, and neither is necessarily
straightforward. Furthermore, disagreements in the findings of different modeling
groups are highly likely, and these disagreements must be quantified and fully
understood for a consensus scientific opinion to emerge.

4.4 Program Element 4: Data Assimilation

The combination of short-term model predictions with observations, known as fourdimensional data assimilation (4DDA), is a critical element of our modern weather and
climate prediction systems. No observational network could ever provide, by itself, the
comprehensive gridded network of information needed to initialize a Numerical
Weather Prediction model or to develop a comprehensive geographic climate data
base. Analysis accuracy is continuing to improve as an increasing diversity of highresolution observations from new in situ and remote observing systems are
incorporated. Analysis accuracy also progresses as initialization techniques and the
underlying models used for the analyses also continue to improve. The first analyses
were global analyses but regional data assimilation systems are now providing the
improved analyses of atmospheric water and energy transports that are needed for
further advances in understanding regional water cycling. These data products will
facilitate the analysis of water cycling at smaller spatial and temporal scales than have
ever been previously achieved. Understanding the three-dimensional and diurnal
structure of energy and water fluxes is critical for the continued development of
atmospheric models at these and larger scales.
4.4.1 Assimilation of Atmospheric Water Vapor
Water vapor is now routinely assimilated from radiosonde observations. The primary
source of assimilated data in practice are radiosonde profiles, although satellite based
humidity estimates are promising. With the advent of new water vapor sensors on many
satellites, and many new ground based systems, it is imperative that continual efforts
be made to assimilate all relevant water vapor products in order to develop high
temporal and spatial resolution over all geographic regions. This will be especially
important in areas where the radiosonde network is sparse - such as over oceans,
much of Asia, and the southern hemisphere continents.
In conjunction with assimilation of new measurements of wind, data assimilation has
the potential to develop high-resolution water vapor convergence. In this case, the
numerical model essentially acts as an interpolator, consistent with the constraints of
model dynamics/thermodynamics. Cullather et al (2000) have shown that use of model
analysis fields of net convergence over the Arctic basin provided much better estimates
of the atmospheric moisture balance than did direct use of radiosonde profiles.
4.4.2 Land Data Assimilation

17

A Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) is the land-surface/hydrological component of

a coupled land-atmosphere model, structured so that it can be forced by either
observed or model fields. The motivation for LDAS is to provide initial fields of land
surface state variables (especially soil moisture) at the beginning of a coupled model
forecast cycle. Gridded precipitation fields derived from observations are run on a
parallel track with the coupled model, providing initial values for the forecast that are
not corrupted by errors in the models precipitation analysis fields. As currently
implemented at NCEP, the gridded precipitation fields are provided by the so-called
Stage IV product from WSR-88D radar, and solar radiation is derived from half-degree
surface radiation fluxes inferred by NESDIS from operational GOES-8 satellite
observations. Near-surface winds, humidity, and temperature data are currently taken
from coupled model analysis, but are candidates to be replaced by observations in the
future. Although its development and testing is still a subject of ongoing research, the
hope is that the LDAS state variable (soil moisture, skin temperature, snow water
storage) and surface fluxes (evapotranspiration, surface sensible heat flux and runoff)
will prove to be more reliable than those generated by the operational assimilation
schemes for the same surface variables. LDAS outputs can also be used to explore
land surface climate scenarios available from GCMs. Eventually, there is also the
potential for LDAS schemes to form a bridge from the LSP schemes used in numerical
weather prediction models to operational hydrologic prediction schemes.
The evolving focus on assimilation of land surface variables into coupled landatmosphere predictions should result in significant improvements in forecast accuracy
and range. Snow water equivalent, for instance, is beginning to be assimilated but soil
moisture remains a problem. At present there is no observational data base for soil
moisture on a continental scale. Also unknown is how to assimilate subsurface
temperature. Streamflow and precipitation measurements could provide additional
information about how to update the snow and soil moisture as well as the atmospheric
dynamical fields implicitly dependent upon their values.
4.4.3 Precipitation
The GEWEX global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) has been providing global
precipitation data for a number of years over both land and ocean. (Xie and Arkin
1996). An effective precipitation analysis that combines in situ observations with
satellite estimates has been developed for large-scale climate models. High resolution
can now be obtained over selected land regions like the US. For example, national
hourly precipitation analyses are now being developed. These analyses are based
upon the new WSR-88D (NEXRAD) radar-based precipitation estimates and hourly rain
gauge observations combined by a multi-sensor precipitation analysis algorithm. This
algorithm was developed initially by the regional River Forecast Centers of the National
Weather Service Office of Hydrology. Through the efforts of NCEP and the Office of
Hydrology to develop centralized access to this information nationwide, the Hourly
National Precipitation Analysis became available in real time on an experimental basis
starting May 1996. This precipitation product is also being tested as a possible input to
the Eta model assimilation and is one of the bases for the new NCEP regional
reanalysis.

18

4.5 Program Element 5: Water and Energy Budget Studies

To determine the net effect of water on climate, the full cycle of evaporation, water
vapor transport, cloud formation, precipitation and runoff must be considered as an
integral system. For example, on the average, the amount of atmospheric water
converged into a particular land region must be equal to the amount of water that
streams send to the oceans. Budget studies emphasize this integral system approach
by asking how accurately we can measure and simulate all components.
Early atmospheric moisture budget studies indicated that the amount of moisture
convergence into particular regions did not equal the amount of streamflow out of the
regions (Roads et al. 1994). Discrepancies were thought to be due to inadequate
sampling by twice-daily radiosonde observations. Later budget studies emphasized
analysis products, which showed that significant residual corrections were still needed
in order to get the budgets to balance. These residual corrections were related to the
tendency of analysis models to systematically move toward their own climatology.
Since this systematic residual is not negligible, it provides a useful measure for
evaluating the accuracy of an analysis.
Budget studies also provide a means to determine quantities that are not directly
measured. For example, evaporation calculated from observed precipitation and the
analysis of large-scale moisture convergence may be superior to direct model outputs.
Soil moisture variations, calculated from the difference between precipitation,
evaporation, and runoff may be superior to any in situ or remote sensing measurement.
Current budget studies are addressing even more subtle questions such as how the
budgets are changing over time on diurnal, seasonal, and interannual time scales, as
well as how the corresponding energy budgets are affected by the latent heat of
evaporation and condensation.
Understanding how all of these water and energy components interact (i.e., getting the
budgets right) on the global, regional, and local scale is critical for improving climate
predictions. Intensive studies within certain regions must be compared and contrasted
with budget studies in climatically different regions to obtain the needed understanding.
Also, the vertical distributions of water (in the atmosphere, surface, and subsurface)
need to be better understood budgets can be performed over vertical layers as well
as over areas.
Finally, only a few studies so far have attempted to understand the role that water and
its phase changes play in atmospheric energetics. There have been, however, a
substantial number of studies that have shown the importance of surface evaporation
in determining the surface temperature. Separating out the effects of surface
evaporation and surface net radiation are required to get a better handle on near
surface temperature prediction. Indeed, preliminary forecast methods have begun to
take advantage of this influence to develop monthly surface temperature forecasts.

4.6 Program Element 6: Knowledge transfer

The development and management of water resources is critically dependent on an
understanding of the natural variability of water supply sources. For surface water
supply management, the primary source to consider is usually streamflow, although for

19

large lakes (e.g., the Great Lakes and the Great Salt Lake), precipitation minus
evaporation over the lake surface can be a major driver as well. For groundwater
supply management, understanding the variability of recharge, which is related to
infiltration less evapotranspiration extractions from the vadose zone, is key.
Notwithstanding the close relationship between the variability of the water cycle and the
design and management of water resource systems, the link between these
applications and scientific advances has been tenuous at best. Most water resource
systems are designed and managed using characterizations of the variability of water
sources based entirely on historical observations. For instance, almost all water
managers characterize the natural variability of reservoir inflows by treating historic
inflow sequences as equally likely to occur in the future. Sizing of many, if not most,
reservoir systems is based on simulation of system performance with assumed future
demands applied to a prescribed system format (e.g., number, size, and location of
reservoirs) simulated with historic observations of streamflows. The implications of
climate and land cover change, which would suggest nonstationarity in the inflow
sequences, is rarely considered. Likewise, and arguably more importantly over
reservoir planning horizons, the effects of decadal scale variations in climate due to
phenomena like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, are not considered. In the realm of
prediction (considered in Chapter 4), streamflow forecasting methods that account for
seasonal to interannual climatic variability, like ENSO, are in their infancy.
While fault can easily be found with methods used in practice to characterize the
natural variability of land surface hydrologic processes, a gap has opened between the
science and applications fields. For instance, coupled land-atmosphere-ocean models
represent the variability of precipitation and evapotranspiration, which are the key
drivers of surface hydrologic processes. In principle, long simulations, or ensembles of
simulations, with such models could be used for design and management of water
resource systems. However, such models at present are nowhere near accurate
enough for these purposes. Figure 2.2, for instance, shows the mean simulated
seasonal hydrograph for the Columbia River at the Dalles based on hydrologic
simulations forced with (precipitation and temperature) output from a regional climate
model, as compared with the output of the same hydrologic model forced by observed
precipitation and temperature. The seasonal high flows (in June) based on climate
model forcings are about double the observations, largely as a result of bias in the
model-predicted precipitation. Nonetheless, approaches are evolving to deal with such
bias issues, both in the short term, through statistical post-processors, and in the longer
term through improvements to model representation of moisture transport and
precipitation algorithms.

20

1200000

Streamflow (cfs)

1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000

Figure 2.2: Simulated streamflow for Columbia River at the Dalles based on
hydrologic model forced with precipitation and temperature predicted by a
regional climate model output (blue line) and observations (black line).

Water resource management is an obvious example of the connection between

science and applications; others could be cited. In general, the development of closer
ties between water cycle science and applications would have potential advantages for
both. From the standpoint of applications, some of the benefits have been mentioned
above. Specifically, the use of methods tied more closely to scientific understanding of
land-ocean-atmosphere interactions would avoid the necessity for assumptions, implicit
or explicit, about statistical stationarity of historical observations. Furthermore,
uncertainties inherent in the length of historical records would be avoided, and a better
means would exist for dealing with situations where observation records are short or
nonexistent (the latter is often the case in developing parts of the world). From the
standpoint of the science, a stronger tie to applications would create a higher standard
for evaluation of model performance, which arguably would accelerate model
development, and help to identify weak links in the science.

5.0 INITIATIVES
5.1 Observations
5.1.1: Water Vapor. Innovative measurements of water vapor developed as part of
various field and remote sensing experiments, such as GVaP and ARM should
eventually be incorporated into standard measurement systems. Along with water vapor
observations, improved estimates of wind are being developed (wind profilers) so that

21

Sep

Aug

Jul

Jun

May

Apr

Mar

Feb

Jan

Dec

Nov

Oct

water vapor fluxes and moisture convergence can be better estimated from
observations and analyses. Water vapor fluxes will become better resolved and
analyzed in intense low level jets, near the diurnally varying boundary layer and in the
upper troposphere. Increased observations, over wider climatic ranges and wider
elevations are needed for additional progress to characterize time and space scales of
water vapor. Estimates of water vapor fluxes can also be improved substantially
through data assimilation (see Section 4.4), especially in conjunction with new wind
measurement systems and new regional analysis systems.
5.1.2: Clouds. A major investment in cloud and radiation process research has already
been made by NASA with the preparation of a three-satellite constellation for active
and passive remote sensing of cloud/aerosol distribution and optical properties
(Cloudsat, PICASSO/CENA, and EOS-Aqua). Considerable improvement in physical
understanding and model representation (parameterization) is expected from this effort
at the 2005 horizon. In addition, the ongoing TRMM Precipitation Radar data are
already providing accurate and very detailed 3-dimensional data on convective cloud
systems, that can eventually lead to much improved representation of rain-producing
processes in atmospheric circulation models. Unique new observations provided
globally by experimental satellite missions such as TRMM, as well as Cloudsat and
PICASSO/CENA would provide new insight in cloud microphysics and 3-dimensional
structure.
A coordinated system for processing of existing, archived cloud data (cloud top
temperature, optical thickness, area coverage, etc.) derived from geostationary
satellites at a spatial resolution of 5-10 km and a temporal resolution of half an hour
should be developed, the primary use for which would be the analysis of cloud system
dynamics. In particular, understanding the moistening effect of clouds, as well as the
cloud ensemble subsidence drying would begin in earnest once adequate data sets
exist to understand cloud ensemble properties and upper tropospheric moisture
distributions.
5.1.3: Precipitation. Within the U.S., the WSR-88D radar system is superior to rain
gauge networks for monitoring the space-time structure of heavy rainfall,
notwithstanding many problems that need to be resolved with respect to rain rate
estimation from these radars (NRC GEWEX Panel, 1999). However, the accuracy of
NEXRAD and satellite estimates, are ultimately limited by the gauge observations used
in their calibration, and the radar data record is short. Therefore, the gauge network
remains the backbone of the precipitation observation system, especially for
climatological applications. The instrumentation technology, especially on-site data
recording and transmission facilities (if any) are badly antiquated in NOAAs
Cooperative Observer Network, which is the primary climate observation system for
precipitation and temperature. Furthermore, electronic compilation of relevant meta
data (histories of gauge type, exposure, site climate) which are needed for gauge bias
adjustments are incomplete. Current precipitation data sets need to be extended in
space and time to maximize the value of existing historical observation records.
Because precipitation variations are intimately linked to soil moisture and runoff
variations, new high resolution gridded precipitation analyses will be critical for
developing better large-scale understanding of the global hydrologic cycle.

22

On a global scale, the proposed international Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) would
provide about 3-hour revisit intervals between +/- 55 degrees latitude, and would
represent a huge advance in spatial and temporal resolution and extent over existing
station-based global archives. Recognizing that precipitation is the most important
variable for characterizing the global water cycle and that it is the least well predicted
variable at all scales, the climate and hydrologic research communities are strongly
supportive of this mission. Remote sensing of frozen precipitation by satellite sensors is
still problematic; but the two-frequency microwave precipitation radar that would be built
by Japan for GPM may provide a new source of information on surface snow cover.
5.1.4: Evaporation and Energy Fluxes. Existing surface flux networks, like Ameriflux,
should be expanded to include more sites and to provide a complete suite of surface
heat and radiative fluxes, and hydrologic state variables (including soil moisture),
sufficient to close the local energy balance. Consideration should be given to
establishment of a rotating sub-network to expand the range of land cover types and
hydroclimatic conditions represented. SURFRAD-like capability should be provided at
or near all permanent surface flux sites. The number of permanently located sites within
the continental U.S. might number about 100, with a similar number of rotating sites.
Evaporation over the ocean also needs to be monitored on a regular basis instead of
as part of a limited field experiments.
Unlike water vapor, precipitation, and clouds, evaporation and other surface energy
fluxes are too expensive to measure everywhere. A concerted effort to simulate
evaporation correctly at specific sites over land and ocean needs to be undertaken.
Intercomparison of models with each other and with the limited numbers of sites
available needs special attention because models will ultimately provide the best global
scale evaporation estimates.
5.1.5: Surface Runoff. A global capability to estimate, in near-real time, the discharge
of major rivers at their mouths and at key points within the continents needs to be
developed. This could be achieved by the HYDRologic Altimetry SATellilte (HYDRASAT), for which planning is currently underway. Within the U.S., a program for stream
gauge support specifically directed toward hydrologic research activities, like
development and testing of HYDRA-SAT, should be implemented. This activity should
leverage from existing U.S. Geological Survey stream gaging and related research
programs, which need to be strengthened to have a stronger link to water-related
climate research.
5.1.6: Groundwater. A regional-scale network of sites should be developed at which
simultaneous monitoring of surface meteorology, soil moisture, and groundwater levels
is conducted. Remote sensing data to support identification of recharge and discharge
areas, as well as geologic conditions, should be obtained. The sites would support
development and validation of numerical models of groundwater flow and transport.
5.1.7: Soil moisture. New observation methods offer promise for better defining
variations in subsurface moisture storage. Soil moisture near the surface strongly
affects the dielectric properties of soil, and hence the emission and backscatter of
microwave radiation. The feasibility of both passive and active (radar) monitoring of soil
moisture has been examined extensively. In both cases, the observation is limited by
the depth of penetration of microwave radiation, usually on the order of the wavelength

23

used. One faces, therefore, a challenging tradeoff between antenna size, horizontal
resolution, and the ability to penetrate vegetation and the top-most soil layer. A
consensus has emerged that L band (about 20 cm wavelength) represents the best
tradeoff for passive measurements and probably would be best for active systems as
well. At L-band, a vegetation threshold of about 5 kg biomass/m2 can be penetrated,
which corresponds to grasslands, most croplands, and shrublands, but would exclude
most forested areas. As part of its post-2002 planning process, NASA has identified a
potential experimental soil moisture measurement demonstration mission, aiming to
provide about 10 km spatial resolution and 2-3 day repeat cycle. The antenna
technology to support such a mission is not yet at hand but a 10-year development
horizon appears plausible. The European Space Agency has approved in principle an
experimental Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity measuring mission (SMOS) that would
provide about 50 km spatial resolution with a 3-day repeat cycle, on a shorter
development schedule than the proposed NASA mission.
5.1.8: Snow and Cold Processes. Improvement in the spatial resolution of passive
microwave snow water estimates (currently about 25 km for products based on SSM/I)
is expected with the AMSR imaging radiometer, to be launched on both the EOS-Aqua
and Japanese ADEOS II satellites. However, neither the range of sensor frequencies
nor other characteristics are specifically designed for the measurement of snow
properties. NASA has included in its post-2002 plans an exploratory cold
seasons/regions process observing mission aiming, among possible objectives, to yield
higher resolution, global estimates of snow water storage. Improved seasonally and
regionally specific algorithms could be developed for extracting snow water equivalent
(SWE) from microwave brightness temperatures. In support of these remote sensing
efforts, an initiative should be undertaken to develop a research quality data set of the
climatology of snow properties over North America that integrates in situ, microwave,
and visible snow measurements. Weekly in situ measurements of SWE should be
obtained at selected manual weather observing stations in the U.S. during periods of
snow cover.
In areas such as the western U.S., where most of the snow occurs in mountain areas,
approaches combining the higher resolution of visible/infrared remote sensing, together
with an adequate ground-based network is needed. The existing network of SNOTEL
and snow-course measurements needs to be augmented with a network specifically
designed to give spatially representative point measurements of snow water equivalent.
A cooperative effort addressing glacier monitoring has already been established (see
4.1.9). The primary need is to bring sufficient resources to this program to achieve its
measurement and other science goals.
With regard to ice sheets, four main areas require attention. First is a new program of
shallow ice coring for ice-sheet accumulation estimates, accompanied by aircraft
program for aircraft radar sounding and modeling. Second is an expanded network of
automatic weather stations in the Arctic and Antarctic. Third is studies on drainage
glaciers and ice streams. Fourth is studies of ice-shelf/ocean interactions.

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5.2 Process Studies

5.2.1 Water Vapor: Initiatives such as the GEWEX and ARM water vapor experiments
should include field campaigns over relevant global regions to characterize the water
vapor and cloud distribution, especially in the upper troposphere. In addition to using
state-of-the-art water vapor measurements, these experiments should be carried out in
conjunction with mesoscale models and especially global to regional climate models.
Climate models do not currently have useful observations for modeling the upper
tropospheric cloud and water vapor. These variables are thought to be important for
affecting climate model sensitivity to increased greenhouse gasses.
5.2.2 Precipitation, and Cloud Microphysics The primary thrust of the initiative to be
undertaken in this area would be to improve the predictability of precipitation in three
important situations:
1) Convective precipitation over land;
2) Orographic precipitation
3) Monsoonal systems
The main elements would be a) an intensive field campaign (probably over central U.S.
in summer) designed to characterize deep convective precipitation over land; b) an
initiative for improved prediction of orographic precipitation, which would include both a
continuing observation, and one or more intensive field campaigns supported by
ground-based observations designed to define the spatial distribution of precipitation in
mountainous areas within at least two climatological regions, probably including
continental and coastal maritime; and c) an intensive field campaign designed to
characterize precipitation associated with monsoonal systems. The design would be
somewhat similar to a) but would be implemented over a considerably larger area, and
over a time frame of about 2 months.
Although the design of the field components of the precipitation predictability initiative
will vary, they would in general consist of a combination of boundary layer
observations, aircraft observations during precipitating events, upward looking surface
measurements, synoptic scale information (which could be largely from existing
sources), all coordinated with satellite observations (e.g., CloudSat and PICASSO).
The field experiments should be accompanied by advanced numerical experiments
designed to untangle some of the uncertainties in current modeling schemes. In a
sense, this could be posed as a computational design problem for cloud-resolving
models. These experiments would have additional benefits in providing better
parameterizations for larger scale (e.g., global) models.
5.2.3 Land-atmosphere field experiments. A set of global land hydrology validation
sites (probably at least 10) should be implemented, at which continuing observations of
surface moisture and energy fluxes would be collected. Also, subsurface moisture
(saturated and unsaturated zones) should be collected over closed catchments large
enough to allow closure of the surface water budget. These continuing observations
could be supplemented by periodic rotating field campaigns, which would integrate
surface, aircraft, and satellite observations.

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5.2.4 Cold seasons field experiments. The proposed cold seasons initiative includes
aspects of a) retrospective data analysis over a range of spatial scales from
subcontinental, continental to global, b) model experiments to help isolate the linkages,
and c) field experiments, which include a focus on spatial scales that affect not only
the role of cold seasons process on moisture storage at the land surface, but also on
larger scale land-atmosphere interactions associated with the role, for instance, of
snow presence-absence on albedo, frozen surface processes on land-atmosphere
turbulent energy transfer, and riverine runoff on the circulation of large water bodies like
the Arctic Ocean.
A combination of intense field campaigns and continuing observations should be
implemented to define the spatial variability of snow properties. The master design
would integrate continuing data collection (see 6.1.8) with periodic Intensive Field
Campaigns, oriented around key snow characteristics, such as new snow, rain-onsnow, and refreeze. These field campaigns would include a combination of in situ,
aircraft, and satellite remote sensing observations.
5.2.5 Ocean-land-atmosphere interactions. A primary effort in this area must be to
achieve better understanding of the phenomena that give rise to major departures in
the behavior of centers of deep tropical convection, and therefore lead to persistent
anomalies in global circulation, moisture transport, and hence large area droughts and
floods. The World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and its sub-programs, CLIVAR,
GEWEX and ACSYS have promoted a comprehensive climate system research
strategy aimed at better understanding the interactive role of the land, atmosphere, and
ocean in the movement of water globally. Several supporting efforts, like the Global
Ocean Observing System (GOOS), and the Global Ocean Data Assimilation
Experiment (GODAE) are making important contributions, but the U.S. contributions
have generally been uncoordinated. There is a need for enhanced global ocean
observations, combining satellite remote sensing, as well as long term deployment of
arrays of ocean buoys or subsurface floats, that would enable documenting, modeling
and, eventually, predicting the life cycle of global climate variability modes. Such
efforts, while not the sole province of the Global Water Cycle Initiative, must be closely
coordinated, as they have strong implications for improved understanding of the global
water cycle. It is especially important that the studies of these dynamic processes
address equally changes in heat and water fluxes between the surface and the global
atmosphere, which directly impact the global water cycle and continental hydrologic
processes.
We therefore propose the initiation of a set of field experiments and modeling programs
that would have the objective of identifying and quantifying connections between
oceanic, land, and atmospheric processes. These field experiments would be
integrated with planned regional studies like VAMOS that address, among other things,
(1) the connection between the low level jet (LLJ) in South America and tropical
Atlantic SSTs, (2) the hydroclimatology of the Rio de la Plata Basin and its connection
with the LLJ and with the South Atlantic Convergence Zone, and (3) the impact of land
processes on the formation of marine stratocumulus clouds. They would go beyond
these regional studies, however, to devise a set of coordinated field, remote sensing,
and modeling experiments that would be designed to better understand the role of
regional anomalies in the global transport of water, and in particular, those persistent

26

deviations in global moisture transport that lead to extreme droughts and large area
flooding.
5.2.6 Land surface as the interface between fast and slow processes. Much of the work
needed to better understand the effects of the land in modulating land-oceanatmosphere interactions involves modeling studies, which is the primary thrust of this
initiative. However, there is a need for supporting field activities in several areas,
mostly dealing with the necessity to provide observations at multiple temporal scales to
isolate the effects of fast and slow processes. This will require that enhance field
campaigns, like those outlined in Section 5.2.2 include a multi-year component, in
which large-scale surface conditions, surface fluxes, and atmospheric variables would
be observed in a manner similar to past campaigns like FIFE and BOREAS, but would
be supplemented with simultaneous observations of the slower components of the land
system, like groundwater levels and other subsurface moisture stores.

5.3 Models
5.3.1 Fellowship and exchange programs. Fellowship and exchange programs should
be developed to foster the involvement of scientists at all levels (including students) in
the development and improvement of coupled land-atmosphere models.
5.3.2 Model testing facilities. Model testing facilities should be established at existing
weather and climate prediction centers (like NCEP), which would be charged with
facilitating model evaluation and the transfer of methods from the general research to
the operational modeling community. These facilities would promote standardized flux
couplers and interfaces, standardized archiving, and other technical innovations (like
visualization and parallel software structures) that would be intended to enhance the
ability to use center models and data streams for model development.
5.3.3 Improvements in land surface and atmospheric models. A next generation of
land-atmosphere models would provide better representations of precipitation
processes, as well as land surface characteristics (groundwater, snowpack, ice sheets,
lakes, dynamic vegetation, convection). Emphasis should be placed on the application
of innovative development and evaluation strategies, like the use of single column
models, cloud resolving models, and direct eddy simulation.
5.3.4 Model evaluation programs. Model evaluation programs like AMIP, GLASS,
PILPS, GSWP, and their extensions should be supported.
5.3.5 Enhanced numerical methods. A major initiative should be undertaken to
increase the computational efficiency, and thereby the model resolution, of coupled
land-atmosphere models.
5.3.6 Coordinated modeling studies. The improved models stemming from the above
initiatives should be evaluated through a set of coordinated modeling studies, to be
undertaken in parallel by multiple groups. These studies would be designed to:
n further our understanding of complex coupled hydrological systems (e.g., through
analysis of process study data), and
n establish the sensitivity of the hydrological cycle to the full range of human activity,
so that (a) current signatures of human activity in the observational record can be

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identified, and (b) society has the information needed to avert potential hydrological
disasters associated with new activities.
The modeling groups would share data and analysis responsibilities to increase the
potential for scientific consensus.

5.4 Four Dimensional Data Assimilation (4DDA)

5.4.1 Atmospheric Data Assimilation: Historically, data assimilation has focused on the
atmospheric states of temperature, mass or pressure, and winds. Typically, the "water"
components of humidity, clouds, and precipitation were given relatively little attention,
because observations of these components were sparser. However, new satellite
sensors (e.g. SSM/I, AMSU, TRMM) has changed this situation. GEWEX and USWRP
research programs have highlighted the 4-D assimilation of water vapor, cloud water,
and precipitation as central thrusts of their atmospheric 4DDA activities. A waterfocused 4DDA initiative should be undertaken through collaborative partnerships
between these programs and their supporting agencies (NASA, NOAA, NSF, DOE),
both in their water-focused field experiments and intensive observing programs, as well
as in their model-based 4DDA computational centers and infrastructure. A critical
obstacle to improving model predictions of the global water cycle is the current ability to
represent the atmospheric energy balance. Model predictions can be improved through
assimilation of satellite radiance observations of upwelling earth-surface emissivity in
various spectral bands. Over oceans, the primary requirement is sea-surface
temperature (SST). Over land (and sea-ice), the surface emissivity problem is more
difficult and challenging, as the forward models for land surface emissivity require
knowing many land-surface states simultaneously, including surface skin temperature,
soil moisture, vegetation density and greenness, soil type, dew, and snowpack
characteristics. Nonetheless, observations of some of these variables are available,
and should be incorporated into the proposed next-generation data assimilation
initiative.
5.4.2 Land Data Assimilation: Progress in land data assimilation (soil moisture and
temperature, snowpack, vegetation density and greenness) is lagging behind its
atmosphere and ocean counterparts and must be accelerated. A new component of
GEWEX known as GLASS (Global Land Atmosphere System) has been launched to
include major thrusts in land data assimilation. The Water Cycle Study should promote
and accelerate the GLASS impetus. One existing vehicle for this is a new U.S. multiagency initiative known as the Land Data Assimilation System or LDAS. The LDAS
initiative is a NOAA and NASA funded partnership between NCEP, NASA/GSFC,
NWS/OH, NESDIS and university partners to demonstrate first a national land data
assimilation prototype and then a global land data assimilation system. The Water
Cycle Initiative should encourage other agencies and universities to participate in
LDAS. Snowpack and high latitude glaciers are acknowledged critical reservoirs of
fresh water, and their evolution and variability play crucial roles in the variability of the
global water and energy cycle. LDAS and similar activities should be expanded to
include a focus on data representing these land cover conditions, especially remote
sensing.
5.4.3 Ocean Data Assimilation: Quantifying the magnitude, distribution, and variability
of ocean surface fluxes of water, heat, and momentum over the globe is a critical
component of the Water Cycle Study. Thus ocean data assimilation initiatives are

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important counterparts of atmospheric and land data assimilation. Support of and

participation in the emerging international Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment
(GODAE) should be promoted. Satellite remote sensing is clearly a central component
of ocean data assimilation. Additionally, initiatives to expand existing arrays of fixed
and drifting ocean buoys, to include some fixed buoys with a lower atmosphere profiling
capability, should be supported. The latter are needed to increase our understanding
of the atmospheric boundary layer over the ocean surface.
5.4.4 Sea Ice Assimilation: Satellite remote sensing of sea-ice cover with both passive
microwave and active radar sensors is revolutionizing the data assimilation of sea ice.
NOAA, NASA, and the DOD have extensive sea ice analysis initiatives. To
complement the advances in sea-ice cover remote sensing, initiatives are needed to
improve the 3-dimensional (depth) representation of sea-ice through data assimilation
initiatives that advance the physical thermodynamic and hydrodynamic sea-ice models.
5.4.5 Global and Regional Reanalysis: A powerful and relatively new tool for
examining, quantifying, and understanding the global water cycle is long term
retrospective global and regional 4DDA. Retrospective 4DDA is referred to as
"Reanalysis", which denotes the re-execution of a fixed configuration of a state-of-theart global or regional 4DDA system from the beginning of viable geophysical
observational databases (e.g. around 1950). Reanalysis is an important component of
the Water Cycle Study strategy (Figure 2.1). To date, global 4DDA spanning 1-5
decades have been carried out by NCEP (with NCAR), NASA/DAO, and ECMWF.
Next generation reanalyses should focus on increased spatial resolution, incorporation
of more comprehensive data sets of atmospheric water vapor, especially in the satellite
era, incorporation of land surface observations where available, such as snow cover
extent, and better representation of land surface processes using state-or-the-art land
surface schemes.

5.5 Budget Studies

5.5.1 Evaluation of observed budgets
A continuing effort to use observations to close water budgets is critical. These studies
form the background and observations needed for model budgets. New data sets
geared specifically for budget studies need to be developed. These include gridded (or
equivalent) observations of streamflow, naturalized streamflow and observed
streamflow over continental domains, gridded high-resolution precipitation data and so
on. Development of continental scale to global hydrometeorological data sets should be
strongly encouraged.
5.5.2 Evaluation of analysis budgets
Because analysis budgets provide the main link between models and observations,
they should be rigorously tested against all observations, especially those
hydrometeorological observations developed to cover wide space and time scales. As
this comparison takes place, improved reanalysis models will need to be developed.
Besides evaluating reanalysis models against available observations, by evaluating
budget terms, the model's drift can be diagnosed. This drift is non-negligible since all
models have different budget balances than in nature when started with observed
values. Only after long integrations will the model have adjusted to negligible drift, at
the expense of then having errors in all hydrologic terms. Reducing the importance of

29

the tendency term in analysis models will provide increased confidence in our ability to
model and eventually predict features that have poor observations, such as continental
evaporation, although all hydrometeorological terms suffer from poor observations due
to the wide variety of space and time scales that need to be resolved.
5.5.3 Evaluation of global and regional model budget structures
Most budget studies to date have emphasized vertically integrated water budgets.
Efforts to understand how water is partitioned between the lower and upper
atmosphere and upper and lower soil moisture levels and snow are needed to
eventually develop accurate predictive capability. Efforts to understand how different
large-scale regions down to local watersheds are needed to assess possible sources of
error in integrated continental water budgets. New budget studies involving the snow
accumulation, melt, runoff, evaporation of snow continental regions are needed to
understand how snow contributes to the water cycle. New budget studies showing how
the release of latent heat by condensation and the cooling by evaporation affect the
energy cycle are needed to better understand the role of water in driving the general
circulation.

5.6 Knowledge transfer

The knowledge-transfer initiative should be designed to develop estimates of the
natural variability of surface hydrological processes that can be incorporated into water
resource systems design and management, with reduced dependence on historical
observations. This might be accomplished through a cooperative applications program,
which would be a joint activity of the lead science agencies involved in the Process
Studies and Modeling initiatives (Sections 5.2 and 5.3), universities, and federal (e.g.,
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and U.S. Bureau of Reclamation) and local agencies
with planning and management responsibilities. The applications initiative would be
funded and managed by one or more of the science agencies, with funding to be
directed toward demonstration applications of new methods for estimation of natural
variability and their incorporation in water resources planning and management at the
operational level. Past experience has indicated that successful demonstration
programs require that funding be provided for dedicated personnel to work in an
operational setting, with dedicated support separate from those with operational
responsibilities. This might be accomplished by a fellowship system that assigned
personnel on a part-time rotating basis to a government research laboratory or
university, and part-time to a government agency or university. The lead agency or
agencies would solicit proposals that would require evidence of participation both from
a credible science-based organization, and an operational agency.
Efforts should go beyond the water resources community, and include regional decision
makers and resource managers where climate and hydrological information can make
an impact. Research is also needed on the demand for, use, value and means of
presenting and delivering new climate and hydrologic information. This must be done
regionally, and a clear understanding of what research is needed to develop the
information needed for regional decision making developed.

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Box 2.1. The 1993 Mississippi River Floods

In the summer of 1993, the Mississippi River basin experienced anomalously high rainfall,
which followed a winter and spring in which precipitation was generally above normal.
During June and July, an unusually persistent branch of the jet stream was positioned
over the upper Mississippi and Missouri River basins. This was caused by a low pressure
system over the southwestern U.S. combined with a stalled high-pressure system over
the southeast, which had the effect of creating an anamolous low level flow of warm,
moist air from the Gulf of Mexico, which collided with cool, dry air from Canada over the
central U.S. The result was two months of much above average precipitation. The
combination of the high rainfall with wet antecedent conditions resulted in mean monthly
discharges of the Mississippi River at its mouth during August and September that
exceeded the largest values for the previous 63 years. At 45 USGS stream gauging
stations over a wide area of the central U.S., peak discharges exceeded the 100-year
flood. Damages exceeded $20 billion, making this one of the most costly natural
disasters in U.S. history. Although the conditions that lead to the 1993 flood have been
quite well documented, what is much less well known is the likelihood of similar large area
flooding in the future. The 1993 flood was especially notable because it occurred during
what is normally the low flow period. Better understanding of the global water cycle will
help to predict the possible occurrence of rare events like the 1993 flood that have not
previously been observed, and will provide the basis for mitigation of future flood
damages.

Dominant weather patterns over the United States for June through July 1993 (left
panel). Flooding near West Alton, IL during July, 1993 (right panel) (U.S.G.S., 1993)

Box 2.2. The green desert

The Boreal Ecoystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) was a large-scale
interdisciplinary field experiment conducted in the northern boreal forests of Canada
between 1994 and 1996. It consisted of intensive observation periods of several
weeks duration, as well as longer term observations over spatial scales ranging from
about 1 km up to a region of dimension about 1000 km. Ground-based, aircraft, and
remote sensing were all used to observe the interactions of the boreal forests with the
atmosphere. One of the key findings of BOREAS was that even in the middle of the
growing season, evapotranspiration rates are quite low. As shown by the figure, one
effect is that boundary layers are surprisingly deep and turbulent during the growing
season, which is more typical of a lower-latitude arid zone than would be expected in
an area of plentiful water. The low evapotranspiration is explained in part by the
nutrient poor environment, to which the boreal forest has adapted through low
photosynthetic rates. Another reason, most important in the spring, is that high
sensible heat fluxes are caused by late thawing of the soil, which suppresses
transpiration. Furthermore, in wetland areas, the canopy intercepts almost all of the
available energy, so that wet soil and moss-covered surfaces play only a minor role in
the surface energy balance, even though they have plentiful moisture. This
phenomenon is not properly represented in most numerical weather prediction
models, and was identified by ECMWF as one reason for their models overestimation
of precipitation and cloudiness over the boreal region during the growing season.
These biases have largely been removed as a result of model improvements that
stemmed from the BOREAS observations.

Potential temperature profiles for May and June 1994. FIFE site (left panel),
Arabian Desert (center) and BOREAS site, Manitoba (right panel). BOREAS
profile is much more similar to the Arabian Desert than to FIFE (Kansas
grassland).