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HowTonyBlaircametobesounpopular
ByJamesNaughtie
SpecialCorrespondentRadio4News
9July2016 UKPolitics

AFP

NoBritishprimeministerinmoderntimeshasexperiencedaplungeinfortunelike
TonyBlair's.
CheeredtotheechoashelefttheCommonschamberforthelasttimeasprimeministerin
2007,after10yearsoflargelyuntroubleddominance,thetragedyofIraqquicklyensnared
himsocompletelythatbythissummerheadmittedhewouldbealiabilityinthecampaignto
keepBritainintheEuropeanUnion.TheoldBlairmagichadturnedtosand.
Butithadonceseemedlikemagic.Aparliamentarymajorityin1997ofproportionsthatno
oneinpoliticscouldremember,andalongwithitafeelingthatlikeMargaretThatcher,whom
he'dwatchedinamazementasayoungMPinthe1980s,hehadsetanationalmoodthat
madeapermanentbreakwiththepast.
Then,afterBillClintonhadwelcomedhimontotheworldstage,cameGeorgeWBush.
TheChilcotreportlaysouttheconsequencesofthatrelationshipthe"whatever"memoof
supporttothepresidentin2002willsurelystandasitsemblemandcataloguesBlair's
journeytotheassaultonBaghdadandhisinabilitytocontrol,perhapseventoinfluence,the
chaosthatfollowed.
Why?
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IwatchedhiminChicagoinApril1999talkingaboutanewworldorderinanowfamous
speech,arookieprimeministerinofficeforlessthantwoyearsmakingthecaseforliberal
interventionismagainstdespoticregimesasifhewereaveteranstatesman.
Hewasbuoyedbyanaturalselfconfidence,andsomethingmoreatthatparticularmoment
thebeliefthathehadsucceededinpersuadinganAmericanpresidenttocommitground
troopsintheBalkans,againsttheweightofcongressionalandpublicopinion,togetridofthe
lastofthesatelliteSovietdinosaurs,SlobodanMilosevicinSerbia.

PA

ThatdealwithClintonwasthemakingofhisrelationshipwithBush.
WhentheTwinTowerscamedownninemonthsafterBushenteredtheWhiteHouse,Blair's
wordswerethemostpowerfulthatAmericansheardfromabroadeloquent,andfromthe
heart.
Mostofthemknewlittleofhimbut,bythetimehewenttoWashingtonforprivate
conversationsinthedaysafter9/11,hehadalreadystartedtotakeonheroicstatus.And
someofthosewithhimonthatdaymarkedadecisivechangeinhisdemeanourandbelief
aftertalkingwithBush,aloneintheBlueRoomoftheWhiteHouse.
Theconvictionthattheworldhadchangedirrevocablywasonethatwouldalwaystorment
him,anditfedahabitwhentalkingaboutworldaffairsincontrast,intriguingly,withhis
attitudeathometotalkaboutblackandwhite,goodandevil.
InpartsoftheBushWhiteHouse,thatwasagiftfromthegods.VicePresidentDickCheney
wastheleaderofthosewhoseeyeshadneverturnedfromIraq,andthemostdeterminedof
thosewhocalledthemselvesneoconservatives.
Theysawthe199091GulfWarasunfinishedbusiness,andcouldhardlybelievetheirluckin
havingaLabourprimeministerwhowaswillingtojoinawarcoalition.Itwasineffecttogive
powerfulcovertoanadministrationstrugglingforinternationalsupportwithBlairsetting
asidetheconcernsofmanyofhisofficials(includingsomewhosawthe"whatever"memo
beforeitwassenttotheWhiteHouseandwerehorrifiedbyitstone,andtheimplicitpromise
ofunconditionalsupport).

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SuchwasBlair'sconfidenceatthattimegreatlybolsteredbytheTories'leadershiptravails
andtheconsequentweaknessoftheparliamentaryoppositionthatnoonecouldholdhim
back.Hisinstinctfor"sofagovernment"hadfullreign,andtherelationshipwithWashington
after9/11wassostrongthatanearinevitablecoursewasset.
GordonBrown,hisironchancellor,absorbedhimselfintheeconomyanddeclinedto
intervenestronglyinforeignaffairs.IntheForeignOfficeitself,JackStrawsharedhisown
worriesinmanyhoursofphonecallswithhisAmericancounterpart,GenColinPowell.
ButPowell,aformerchairmanoftheJointChiefsofStaff,wasaweaksecretaryofstatenot
trustedbytheideologueswhowerepressingthepresidenttowardsaconfrontationwith
Saddam,andoutsidetheWhiteHouseinnercore.

REUTERS

Wenowknow,fromChilcot,whattheconsequenceswere.Fragmentaryandthinintelligence
wasusedtofeedcertainty,nottospreaddoubtBlair'sformidablepoliticalcommandmeant
thatsomeofficialsbecamecourtierstherewastoolittleappetitetoquestiontheassumptions
thatweredrivingpolicy.Inshort,thefabledWhitehallmachinedidn'tdoitswork.
AlastairCampbell,directorofcommunications,washavingvideoconferencecallswiththe
WhiteHouseeveryafternoon.BlairandBushweretalkingregularly,sointimatelyand
informallythatsomeofficialswhosawthetranscriptsafterwardshadtoworkhardtodecipher
preciselywhateachofthemhadmeantintheirexchanges.
ThisisnottosaythatBlairwasdeterminedonwar,comewhatmay.Hewasn't.Alongwithhis
hopehoweverfarfetchedthatSaddammightbepersuadedtocooperatewithUN
weaponsinspectors,hearguedwellintothespringof2003forasecondUNresolutionto
authorisewarifnecessary.Itwasmeanttogiveeveryonemoretime.
ButtheAmericanswereonafasttrack,andintheendBlair'scommitmenttoBushwastoo
strong.Hecametobelievethatscepticismwouldbeakindofbetrayalasurrendertothe
policyofappeasementthathe'dwarnedagainstinChicagoin1999.
SincehebelievedabsolutelyintheexistenceofSaddam'sweaponsofmassdestruction
mistakenlyheconvincedhimselfthattoomuchdelaywouldbeadisplayofweakness.No
onecouldchangehismind.
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AlthoughhedefendedhisjudgementsafterChilcotwaspublished,heknowswellhow
greatthecosthasbeen.InIraq,andforhim.
TheprimeministerwhoshowedpatienceandingenuityinNorthernIreland,subtletyin
Europe,andwhowasnotablysuspiciousofanideologicalapproachtodomesticaffairs,
becomeatruebeliever.Therewasanelementofnaiveteinhisapproachtothehardliners
aroundBushconfessing,forexample,thathedidn'treallyknowwhataneoconservative
was.

IonceheardHillaryClintoninaprivatemomentexpressingastonishmentathislackofdoubt,
usingawitheringAmericanphrasepopularisedaftertheJonestownmasssuicide."What's
happenedtoTony,"sheasked."He'sstarteddrinkingtheKoolAid."
Shemeantthathehadabandonedallcautionandeverysliverofscepticism.Andhehad.
Althoughitwouldbefoolishtosuggestthathedidn'tunderstandthecostofwar,norgiveit
deepthought,hisloyaltytoBushhadbecomesostrongafter9/11thatittrumpedeverything
else.
Theresultwastheinvasionof2003.TheAmericantimetablewasset,andBlaircouldn't
changeit.Oratleastbelievedthathecouldn't.
Onelingeringquestionremains,andwilllieunanswered.CouldBlairhaveexerciseddecisive
restraintifhehadthreatenedtowithdrawhissupport?DickCheneyandDonaldRumsfeld
wouldhavebeencontemptuous,butwhatoftheAmericanpeople?
Therearesomepeoplewhobelievethatheunderestimatedhisownsignificanceatthattime.
ApublicsignalofrealalarmfromAmerica'sprincipalally,afigurehugelypopularintheUnited
States,mighthavehadmoreimpactthanevenhebelieved.
Wecan'tknow.Wedoknowthathehadbecomedeterminedtoshownosignofweakness,
anditwascostly.Greatconvictionnotenoughdoubt.
Thinkofoneday,afewmonthsafterthewarbegan.Blairaddressedbothhousesof
CongressinWashingtonandgotmorethanadozenstandingovations.Headystuff.

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REUTERS

Afewhourslater,flyingoverthePacific,hewastoldofamelancholyeventathome.DrDavid
Kelly,aweaponsexpertattheMinistryofDefence,hadbeenfounddead,twodaysafter
givingevidencetotheForeignAffairsSelectCommitteeabouthisdoubtsoverweaponsof
massdestruction.
Twoseparateevents.Onetragedy.
IraqhascometodominatetheBlairlegacytosuchanextentthatmanyofhisnotable
achievementstheGoodFridayagreement,devolutiontoScotlandandWales,theminimum
wageandanumberofsocialreformsaredoomedtoshelterunderitsshadow.
Historiansinthefuturewillbeabletorestoresomebalancetotherecord(andtoassess
whethersomeclassicBlairreforms,likethePrivateFinanceInitiativeandstudentloansand
NHSreorganisation,havestoodthetestoftime),butnotyet.
Histragedyisthattheprogressivefigurehewantedtobethefirstprimeministerbornafter
WorldWarTwo,whogavetheLabourPartyanewappealtothegenerationdubbed"the
millennials"willbeobscuredbyhismostmomentousdecision.
Allhisparty'scurrenttravailstendtobeinterpretedagainstthatbackground,asifitisstill
essentiallyanargumentabouthim.Hewillhavetowaitforthattochange,anditmaytake
sometime.
JamesNaughtieisBBCNewsBookEditorandpresentsBookclubonBBCRadio4.Hewasa
presenterontheTodayprogrammefrom1994to2015.

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