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B.C.MarketsCool,Ontario'sRemainStrongMetroResaleSnapshotSeptember2016

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Home>e-Library > Research > Metropolitan Resale Snapshot > 2016 > September

METROPOLITAN RESALE SNAPSHOT: SEPTEMBER 2016

B.C. Markets Cool, Ontarios Remain Strong

by Robin Wiebe
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Short-Term Year-OverYear MLS Price Change
Expectations
Resale Indicators
About the Metro Resale
Snapshot

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Transactions dropped in 17of our 28markets

between July and August. The most notable drops
were in Vancouver (following the introduction of the
foreign purchasers tax there) and in the Fraser
Valley. Sales continued to be soft in Alberta and
Saskatchewan markets. Toronto volumes remained
brisk.
The supply picture continues to be uneven. Listings
fell in 17areas between July and August, including
drops in B.C.s lower mainland. They remained
below year-earlier levels in most Ontario markets,
while Regina, Sherbrooke, and Halifax saw big
jumps.

Despite widespread drops in sales, the sales-to-listings ratio rose in 15areas last
month. Sellers conditions prevail in eight Ontario cities. Sixteen markets, including
Vancouver, are balanced. Four markets face buyers conditions
Vancouvers average price fell sharply last month, likely due to a drop in sales of
luxury homes. It is one of only four cities where prices were down year-over-year.
Price growth continues brisk across Southern Ontario. The drop in prices in the
Alberta and Saskatchewan cities appears to have levelled off.

Short-Term Year-Over-Year MLS Price Change Expectations

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+7%

Toronto, Oshawa, St.Catharines, Kitchener

56.9%

Victoria, FraserValley, Hamilton, London, Windsor, Sherbrooke

34.9%

ThunderBay, Kingston, Ottawa, SaintJohn

02.9%

Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Regina, Saskatoon, Winnipeg, Sudbury, Gatineau,

Montral, Qubec, Trois-Rivires, Saguenay, Halifax

Falling

Newfoundland

Resale Indicators for July and August 2016

Sales-to-New-Listings
Ratio

Market1
Victoria
m/m %
y/y %

Sales (#)2

Listings (#)

Level

Balanced
Market
Range3

Balanced

9,624
6.4
14.9

12,804
4.3
6.9

0.734

0.4690.756

568,508
2.1
4.8

Balanced

32,304
18.8
26.1

58,212
8.9
2.3

0.561

0.4400.727

846,244
18.8
6.9

Balanced

19,428
10.0
3.7

31,632
9.5
11.6

0.637

0.4380.713

621,338
6.9
7.1

Balanced

21,804
4.9
11.2

40,620
1.4
0.8

0.522

0.4710.744

461,206
0.7
1.1

Balanced

16,368
7.8
15.9

34,248
3.4
10.1

0.472

0.4610.748

368,333
2.1
0.8

Buyers

2,736
20.8
20.6

7,596
16.1
3.6

0.361

0.5130.768

312,173
0.2
0.5

Buyers

5,112
3.4
2.7

12,804
3.8
7.9

0.399

0.4540.716

349,939
2.4
2.5

12,648
2.2

20,916
1.0

0.603

0.4430.804

Market
Classification

Vancouver

Fraser Valley4

Calgary

Edmonton

Regina

Saskatoon

Winnipeg
Balanced

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Price ($)

282,618
0.1
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1.1

2.4

0.9
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Sellers

2,220
4.1
1.6

3,024
6.3
13.7

0.747

0.4920.719

207,428
2.0
6.0

Balanced

2,340
5.8
3.9

4,656
7.8
1.0

0.501

0.3330.614

238,696
5.5
3.8

Sellers

114,324
2.1
11.4

150,972
3.1
8.0

0.746

0.4680.690

736,354
1.6
17.4

Sellers

12,168
0.9
6.6

14,376
4.6
7.4

0.834

0.4830.748

535,530
0.7
20.4

Sellers

15,168
4.2
4.8

18,276
2.9
16.2

0.833

0.4190.794

500,183
2.0
6.2

Sellers

3,600
6.4
9.9

3,888
5.0
19.2

0.904

0.3760.675

328,257
1.6
9.2

Sellers

9,552
0.4
7.8

10,932
6.3
31.7

0.845

0.4590.715

403,878
3.7
15.3

Sellers

10,452
3.5
4.1

15,336
2.0
8.3

0.666

0.4020.613

279,419
1.3
5.8

Sellers

6,312
8.4
3.7

9,936
0.1
2.6

0.645

0.4450.632

226,171
1.8
8.5

Balanced

3,504
1.4
1.0

7,476
5.6
18.3

0.495

0.3000.590

319,179
4.3
9.3

Balanced

16,368
1.0
7.2

28,656
0.9
9.5

0.566

0.3980.671

372,387
0.2
3.9

Balanced

4,032
0.9
7.7

8,784
3.6
4.6

0.46

0.4460.698

248,235
3.6
0.6

Balanced

39,564
2.2
4.1

69,396
4.7
10.6

0.563

0.4340.831

356,960
2.1
3.0

Buyers

6,360
7.0
2.8

13,632
1.0
8.9

0.462

0.5190.757

272,083
3.9
2.4

Thunder Bay

Sudbury

Toronto

Oshawa

Hamilton

St.Catharines

Kitchener

London

Windsor

Kingston

Ottawa

Gatineau

Montral

Qubec City

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Sherbrooke

2,016
10.5
18.3

3,936
15.9
2.8

Balanced

1,104
19.5
2.2

1,896
0.6
5.3

Buyers

1,128
1.1
7.8

2,556
1.9
1.9

Balanced

2,160
13.2
26.8

Balanced

Balanced

Balanced

Trois-Rivires

Saguenay

Saint John

Halifax

Newfoundland
(province)

304,503
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40.7
34.6

0.507

0.4540.695

0.563

0.4830.743

159,839
11.8
1.3

0.421

0.4670.716

184,416
0.0
3.1

4,044
1.7
5.3

0.504

0.3640.583

165,661
1.5
3.4

4,752
4.1
25.7

9,216
10.5
7.0

0.557

0.4530.682

283,509
0.7
0.5

4,332
4.9
0.6

10,668
4.0
5.1

0.399

0.3520.568

256,857
2.5
9.7

1 For real estate board area (except Newfoundland, which is province-wide).

2 Italics indicate per cent change. The second row shows the percentage change from the previous month; the third row from the
year earlier.
3 Within one standard deviation of long-term average sales-to-new-listings ratio.
4 Includes Abbotsford.
Notes: All data are seasonally adjusted.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canadian Real Estate Association; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards.

About the Metro Resale Snapshot

The monthly Metro Resale Snapshot provides an overview of the existing home market for 28 areas
and expectations for existing home price growth over the short term.
Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources, and are
subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment,
accounting, legal, or tax advice.
^ top of page

Robin Wiebe
Senior Economist

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