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249-251,
PII:SO950-423O(a7)00010-7
1997
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ELSEVIER
Mathematical
model
time estimation
for HAZOP
study
To conduct effective and efficient H@!OP (Hazard and Operability) study it is essential that the
study should be planned and managed well. The planning and management can be done effectively only when the various steps of the study, scope of each step, and duration of each step
are well defined. Significant work has been done over the identification of various applications
of HAZOP, but not much work has been done over HAZOP study duration estimation, which is
a key parameter for proper planning and management of HAZOP study. Freeman et a/. (1992)
161 have proposed a model for HAZOP study time (duration) estimation, however, it still needs
modification in terms of easy application and more reliable estimation.
The present work is an effort in the same direction, a mathematical model being proposed
to forecast (estimate) the HAZOP study duration for varying capacity and complexity of the
problem. The accuracy of the results has been checked with some of the past case studies
carried out by various agencies. It has been observed that the authors model predicts result
with accuracy of about 96-95%, while Freemans model is restricted to 8590%.
Moreover, the
proposed model is simple, easy to implement, and can be automated to software. 0 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved
Keywords: HAZOP study; HAZOP time; process safety; risk assessment
Introduction
249
250
Et,
+
- Choose deviation
e.g. temp. flow
rate, pressure
the deviation
1 Yes
Figure 1
equipments
of unit
No
been
procedure is optimal in terms of duration of study, effectiveness and reliability of the results.
The proper planning and management of HAZOP
study is one of the crucial factors for better effectiveness
and good reliability of the results. The HAZOP study can
be planned and managed properly only when duration of
each activity and for complete study is known. In practi-
Meaning
Applicable
No/None
More
Less
Part Of
As Well As
Reverse
Other Than
to following
parameters
HAZOP study
time estimation:
251
model
et al. 1992)
Proposed model
(single
252
preparation time,
study or meeting time,
delay, and
report writing.
Preparation time
Prior to starting the discussion on the process system,
there are many things that the team leader and team
members have to do. Firstly, the team leader should plan
and decide the schedule, duration of review meetings,
and arrange the essential documents such as PIDs
(process instrumentation diagrams), PFDs (process flow
diagrams), plot plans, operating procedure, etc. Subsequently, the team leader has to decide the beginning
point (scope of the study) and boundaries of study.
During the brainstorming discussions, the team
leader should take care that the discussion should be on
the objectives and should not go beyond the boundaries
of study. Every discussion should be followed by homework on the points (problems) identified and not well
understood/discussed
in the meeting. These points
should be put up in the next discussion session before
starting the new discussion. In other words, this time
step takes account steps 1 (procurement of relevant
information) and 2 (preparation of uncleared points) of
the HAZOP study procedure.
A greater number of PIDs means more information
collection, and identification of more unclear points,
which requires a large preparation time. Hence, the preparation time is defined as a direct function of the number
of PIDs and the degree of complexity of PIDs, and can
be represented as
Tprep = 1.5(X1 + 2*X, + 3*X, + 4*X,)
(1)
Moderately
experienced
Experienced
Table 3 Classification
of PlDs complexity
Serial number
PlDs groups
1
2
3
4
Simple
Standard
Compkx
Very complex
Number of
equipments
l-4
4-6
6-8
>8
Number
of pipelines
l-7
7-15
15-25
>25
L,ff = 2.0
Never led any
team for HAZOP
study
Led one or two
Leff = 1.5
major HAZOP
study teams
L,, = 1.0
Led more than
three major
HAZOP study
team
Coefficient
1
2
1
8
Power factor, P
1
1
2
2
HAZOP study
Highly
experienced
time estimation:
L,, = 0.75
Where,
L eff
ci
pi
xi
253
T,(L,,*~Ci*X~)
(3)
where
K is a proportionality constant and equals to one
for chemical process industries and higher than one ( 1.5)
for petrochemical industries.
(4)
Delay time
@15*&,
(5)
(6)
Tde,ay,
Tde,ayz
(7)
254
T HAZOP
(8)
T,,
hours= THAZOP*
numberofteammembers
(9)
HAZOP study in
l~wcd*T~~zodTw
(10)
Freeman model
Actual duration
Proposed model
2
2
2
2
Experienced
15
2
2
2
2
Experienced
15
2
2
2
2
Experienced
15
95
665.0
8.5
42.0
30.0
13.5
7.9,
93.4
653.0
8.3
72.0
54.0
27.0
639.0
8.1
255
Freeman model
Actual duration
Proposed model
2
2
3
3
Experienced
15
2
2
2
2
Experienced
15
2
2
2
2
Experienced
15
150
1050.0
13.3
87.0
39.0
17.5
10.2
153.7
1075.0
13.6
99.0
60.0
30.0
876.0
11.1
Freeman
model
7
7
7
4
Experienced
15
Actual duration
Proposed model
2
2
2
2
Experienced
15
2
2
2
2
Experienced
15
325
2275.0
28.5
198.0
87.0
39.2
22.9
347.1
2356.0
30.7
186.7
105.0
52.5
2414.0
25.5
Discussion
The result of Freemans and the authors model along
with actual duration (studies conducted by various
agencies, NEERI, 1992 [17], NEERI, 1995 [18], CPCE,
1995 [4], etc.) have been plotted in Figure 2. It is evident
from Figure I that as complexity increases the estimation due to Freemans model starts deviating more
from actual duration. The result of the authors model
also deviates with increase in complexity; however, this
deviation is less and is towards the overestimation side,
while the result of Freemans model deviates towards the
negative side (underestimation). The reasons for these
256
30 -
,:
25 -
ux
E 85e
s
80-
15 -
----
Duration in weeks
complex
15
20
25
30
Figure4 Variation in the accuracy of the authors and Freemans models predictions with the complexity of the problem
References
complex
Degree of complexity
models
10
Authors model
Freemans model
HAZOP study
time estimation:
257