Professional Documents
Culture Documents
DEATHS
WANG-SHENG LEE and SANDY SUARDI*
INTRODUCTION
ABBREVIATIONS
ABS: Australian Bureau of Statistics
ADF: Augmented Dickey Fuller
AIC: Akaike Information Criteria
ARIMA: Autoregressive and Integrated Moving
Average
BIC: Bayesian Information Criteria
COD: Causes of Death
FH: Firearm Homicide
FS: Firearm Suicide
NFA: National Firearms Agreement
NFH: Non-Firearm Homicide
NFS: Non-Firearm Suicide
PP: Phillips-Perron
RSS: Residual Sum of Squares
ZA: Zivot and Andrews
doi:10.1111/j.1465-7287.2009.00165.x
2009 Western Economic Association International
66
not be a serious issue. Second, the gun buyback scheme was large and better funded than
comparable efforts in the United States, helping to test the hypothesis of whether size of the
buyback matters.4 Third, in countries where
the gun culture might not be as prevalent as
in the United States, where homicide rates
are lower by international standards but where
occasional mass murders occur (e.g., Britain),
the impact of the NFA in Australia could be
viewed as an indication of what the effect of
a similar buyback scheme would be in such
countries.
The remainder of this paper is organized as
follows. Section II provides a brief review of
the literature on the effects of the NFA. Section III introduces the time series data on
homicides and suicides that we use for our
empirical analysis. Section IV discusses the
econometric model and issues regarding
model selection. In particular, we present
results of unit root tests that check for the stationarity of the data, as well as discuss how we
choose the appropriate lag structure for our
time series model. Section V discusses the
structural break tests we employ and their
results when used to analyze the data. Section
VI uses an alternative time series model as
a robustness check. Finally, Section VII
concludes.
II.
BACKGROUND
67
68
Panel 2: FH
90
00
20
80
70
19
19
60
Panel 4: NFH
0.6
ln (NFH)
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
Year
00
20
90
80
19
70
19
60
19
19
50
40
19
30
19
19
20
19
00
90
20
70
80
19
19
60
19
50
19
19
40
19
19
19
30
-0.6
20
ln (FH)
19
50
Year
Year
0.00
-0.25
-0.50
-0.75
-1.00
-1.25
-1.50
-1.75
-2.00
19
40
19
30
20
19
19
ln (NFS)
90
00
20
80
70
19
19
60
19
50
19
40
19
30
19
20
19
Panel 3: NFS
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.7
19
Panel 1: FS
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
19
ln (FS)
FIGURE 1
Plots of the Natural Logarithm of the Series
Year
Note: FS, FH, NFS, and NFH are expressed as total number of deaths per 100,000 of the Australian population.
69
k
X
i51
ci Dyt"i et ;
where DUt and DTt are break dummy variables that are defined as
8
< 1 if t . TB
DUt 5
:
0 otherwise
and
DTt 5
8
< t " TB if t . TB
:
0 otherwise;
70
TABLE 1
Results for Unit Root Tests
With Intercept
Firearm suicides
Firearm homicides
Non-firearm suicides
Non-firearm homicides
With Trend
and Intercept
Firearm suicides
Firearm homicides
Non-firearm suicides
Non-firearm homicides
ADF
"0.4450
"3.9163
"2.2820
"2.2211
(0)
(0)
(0)
(1)
[0.8957]
[0.0029]
[0.1800]
[0.2004]
PP
"0.1645
"3.6860
"2.4347
"3.5398
ADF
"0.9416
"3.9350
"2.8774
"2.7772
(0)
(0)
(0)
(1)
[0.9456]
[0.0145]
[0.1748]
[0.2096]
(1)
(1)
(6)
(2)
PP
"0.9416
"3.7015
"3.0436
"4.0492
(0)
(1)
(5)
(2)
"3.0460
"2.4714
"3.3755
"3.6688
{1997}
{1993}
{1935}
{1970}
"3.6539
"2.8015
"3.5805
"4.0469
{1990}
{1979}
{1931}
{1938}
Notes: Figures in () for the ADF and PP tests are the AIC-based selected lag length and the Newey-West selected
bandwidth, respectively. Figures in [ ] are p values. Zivot and Andrews (1992) test has a null hypothesis of a unit root
with no break, and an alternative hypothesis of stationarity with a single break. The figure in {} under ZA test denotes
break date. The 1%, 5%, and 10% critical values for the ZA test with break(s) in intercept (intercept and trend) are "5.34
("5.57), "4.80 ("5.08), and "4.58 ("4.82), respectively.
71
10
0
-10
-20
Year
00
90
20
80
19
19
70
60
Panel 4: NFH
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
00
90
20
19
80
19
70
60
Year
19
19
50
19
40
19
19
19
30
-60
20
80
00
20
19
60
70
19
19
50
19
19
40
19
19
19
30
125
100
75
50
25
0
-25
-50
-75
-100
19
50
Year
Panel 2: FH
20
growth rate of FH
Year
19
19
40
30
19
19
20
-30
19
20
00
90
Panel 3: NFS
30
20
80
19
70
19
60
19
40
19
19
30
19
20
19
50
Panel 1: FS
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
19
growth rate of FS
FIGURE 2
Plots of the Series Growth Rates
Note: FS, FH, NFS, and NFH are expressed as total number of deaths per 100,000 of the Australian population.
72
TABLE 2
ARIMA Model Selection Results
Variable
ARIMA Model
Based on AIC
ARIMA Model
Based on BIC
FS
FH
NFS
NFH
Dy1 5 l + aut
(0,1,1)
(4,1,2)
(0,1,3)
(0,1,1)
(0,1,0)
(0,1,1)
(0,1,0)
(0,1,1)
" 1+
711.2031
847.1406
638.6316
726.3305
ut
FS
l
a
Q(5)
Q(10)
Q(15)
710.8814
842.2294
636.4619
723.8419
"1.7675 (1.4020)
2.646 [0.7543]
13.617 [0.1912]
19.785 [0.1803]
FH
NFS
NFH
"1.0873 (1.2740)
"0.5733* (0.0908)
2.634 [0.7562]
12.061 [0.2810]
18.466 [0.2390]
0.0508 (0.9325)
1.539 [0.9085]
4.151 [0.9402]
15.598 [0.4092]
"0.0091 (0.5309)
"0.6504* (0.0820)
4.783 [0.4429]
10.859 [0.3686]
12.088 [0.6724]
Notes: Figures in (p,d,q) indicate the lag order for AR, the order of integration, and the lag order for MA respectively.
Marginal significance levels are displayed in [ ]. Figures in () are robust standard errors. Q is the Ljung-Box test for kth
order serial correlation in the residual ut, for k 5 5, 10, and 15.
*Significance at the 1% level.
73
Panel 1: FS
2.00
1.75
1.50
1.25
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.00
Chow Test
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
2
19 0
2
19 5
3
19 0
3
19 5
4
19 0
4
19 5
5
19 0
5
19 5
6
19 0
65
19
7
19 0
7
19 5
8
19 0
8
19 5
9
19 0
9
20 5
00
19
19
Panel 4: NFH
15.0
Chow Test
12.5
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
0.0
19
19
W5
2
19 0
2
19 5
3
19 0
3
19 5
4
19 0
4
19 5
5
19 0
5
19 5
6
19 0
6
19 5
7
19 0
7
19 5
8
19 0
8
19 5
9
19 0
9
20 5
00
-2.5
2
19 0
2
19 5
3
19 0
3
19 5
4
19 0
4
19 5
5
19 0
5
19 5
6
19 0
6
19 5
7
19 0
7
19 5
8
19 0
8
19 5
9
19 0
9
20 5
00
Chow Test
Panel 2: FH
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
Panel 3: NFS
1.4
2
19 0
2
19 5
3
19 0
3
19 5
4
19 0
4
19 5
5
19 0
5
19 5
6
19 0
6
19 5
7
19 0
7
19 5
8
19 0
85
19
9
19 0
9
20 5
00
Chow Test
FIGURE 3
Chow Test Sequence as a Function of Break Dates
across candidate break dates, with the test statistic reaching a high of 1.95 in 1922. Given
that the break date is not known a priori,
we cannot rely on standard chi-square distribution for inference. The asymptotic critical
values for a class of tests, including the Wald
test, where the break date is only identified
under the alternative hypothesis is computed
by Andrews (1993). The 5% level critical values for a trimming factor of 0.05 and with one
restriction is 9.84 and 12.93 with two restrictions. These asymptotic critical values are
considerably larger than the comparable
chi-square critical values.10
Visual inspection of the sequence of Chow
test for the FS series suggests that in not a single candidate break date do we observe the test
statistic above the 9.84 critical value. This
implies that we cannot reject the null hypothesis of no structural break. Hence, this suggests that the FS time series do not possess
a structural break. In other words, we fail
to find any evidence that show the NFA has
an effect at reducing the firearm suicide
growth rates. The same result also holds for
the NFS growth series.
In contrast, for the FH and NFH growth
series, we find at the 5% significance level that
there is evidence for the existence of structural
10. The 5% significance level chi-square critical values
for 1 degree of freedom is 3.84, and 5.99 for 2 degrees of
freedom.
74
breaks. For the FH growth rate, the test statistic is above the 12.93 critical value in the
period 19511953; for the NFH growth rate,
there appears to be breaks at various points
in time: 1943, 19461948 and 19501951.
In summary, our implementation of the
Quandt test fails to find any evidence that
a structural break occurred around the time
of the NFA in any of the four data series
examined. In the next two subsections, we
employ alternative structural break tests as
robustness checks.
a mean shift in a linear process. We can estimate a single break point for the mean shift by
minimizing the sum of squared residuals
among all possible sample splits. Let us denote
the mean of the first Ts observations by Y! Ts
and the mean of the last T " Ts observations
by Y! T "Ts . Then the sum of squared errors for
the whole sample is:
ST Ts 5
Ts
X
Yt " Y! Ts
t51
T
X
Yt " Y! T "Ts :
t 5 Ts 1
75
FIGURE 4
Least Squares Break Date EstimationResidual Variance as a Function of Break Dates
Panel 1: FH
850
200
150
00
90
20
80
19
19
70
19
19
20
19
00
90
20
19
80
70
19
19
60
19
50
40
19
19
19
19
30
120
20
130
450
60
140
500
50
550
160
40
600
170
19
650
180
30
700
190
19
Residual Variance
750
19
800
Residual Variance
Panel 2: NFH
210
76
TABLE 3
Tests for Multiple Breaks at Unknown Points
in the Sample in the Mean Based on Bai and
Perron (1998)
Double Maximum Tests
Series
UDmax
FS
FH
NFS
NFH
WDmax
10.45
10.68
3.97
4.72
3.10
5.33
4.10
5.36
sup"F(l + 1jl) test statistics
3.15
4.07
4.07
FS
19161986
19872004
"0.23
"7.80
77
APPENDIX
TABLE 1A
ABS Causes of Death Data 1915 to 2004
Year
Rate of Firearm
Suicide
Rate of Firearm
Homicide
Rate of Non-Firearm
Suicide
Rate of Non-Firearm
Homicide
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
4.031636
3.702076
3.056176
3.280707
2.984728
3.693712
3.226317
2.190349
2.599515
3.080288
2.929672
2.922548
3.234943
2.983081
3.284389
3.806511
3.784579
2.645654
3.092081
3.204859
3.107225
3.466909
2.984404
3.218072
2.82731
3.182049
2.236319
2.033218
1.644804
1.627971
1.677559
2.330828
2.493615
2.257172
2.655517
2.298655
2.600402
3.04523
2.790583
3.227052
2.967479
2.938817
3.277961
3.423985
3.072646
2.754253
2.910431
3.174369
0.5215052
0.4248284
0.4250311
0.4771938
0.8280212
0.6156186
0.366627
0.4308883
0.2810287
0.4646245
0.2693951
0.5779049
0.5661151
0.5077584
0.7507175
0.6808395
0.7661091
0.4561473
0.4977496
0.4193273
0.6095514
0.457337
0.5705478
0.3478996
0.3874993
0.5824285
0.2391033
0.2367445
0.2626158
0.4240934
0.365275
0.3750758
0.4090056
0.3891676
0.240261
0.1589496
0.4393373
0.5094681
0.3743465
0.4339828
0.4130557
0.3288928
0.5186648
0.5486504
0.5469111
0.4963494
0.5308929
0.5957761
9.166456
7.970589
7.104091
6.621064
7.529215
8.170938
8.15745
7.378962
7.921496
8.15674
8.856365
8.817177
8.734347
9.345927
8.99297
10.78512
8.886867
8.818847
8.823744
9.165298
8.652657
8.173054
7.563416
7.595809
8.381467
7.216432
6.540178
6.238914
5.487288
5.759462
5.993215
7.474726
7.348907
7.303379
7.119314
6.99378
6.958153
7.595706
8.088153
7.555753
7.315433
7.893427
8.858794
8.839367
8.014733
7.873465
8.930377
10.50055
1.303763
1.416094
1.052458
1.312283
1.309429
1.492409
1.026556
1.005406
1.334886
1.393873
1.128092
1.122787
1.213104
1.253528
1.094796
0.9129438
1.19513
0.9274994
0.9653326
1.198078
0.966362
0.9736851
0.9948013
0.8262616
0.6888877
0.7813066
0.6047907
1.08624
0.7740255
1.026032
0.6764351
0.830525
0.7916238
0.7523907
0.6702018
0.8803359
0.9142966
0.9610421
0.9301944
0.8679657
0.9891596
0.9972879
0.7987437
0.9753785
0.9347208
0.9732341
0.8152998
0.9402092
continued
78
TABLE 1A
Continued
Year
Rate of Firearm
Suicide
Rate of Firearm
Homicide
Rate of Non-Firearm
Suicide
Rate of Non-Firearm
Homicide
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
3.068387
3.089543
2.906654
2.931161
3.02566
2.939551
2.691019
3.19812
3.07639
2.863873
3.013802
3.053364
2.864753
3.057062
2.959365
3.252258
3.602988
3.497704
3.296867
3.602417
3.3001
3.40193
3.502591
3.402348
3.498551
3.199823
2.700064
2.801034
2.898628
2.800854
2.399942
2.402724
2.202331
2.102594
1.798293
1.202484
1.400201
1.200832
1.298083
1.099742
1.001377
0.8361743
0.5570584
0.5731325
0.5005416
0.5431269
0.5593657
0.6911693
0.4403485
0.5676662
0.5969114
0.4735537
0.5923935
0.5975556
0.6334127
0.6057115
0.7046107
0.4805263
0.702686
0.7009017
0.6030854
0.6980919
0.597656
0.8023421
0.6017109
0.5993127
0.6025625
0.7016625
0.4995714
0.4980918
0.497569
0.600183
0.3339542
0.274437
0.3209428
0.5406671
0.4050209
0.2885961
0.3275942
0.3132606
0.2575562
0.2138386
0.1861856
0.1592713
12.61144
11.41787
11.87249
11.06082
12.04331
9.776299
9.557194
9.20259
10.22402
9.350807
8.300913
8.365779
8.133595
7.66047
8.074839
7.848597
7.99822
7.396895
7.900419
8.1005
7.899453
7.599783
8.100929
9.002175
10.2989
10.10152
10.69915
9.69814
9.800951
10.90047
10.69785
9.297252
10.39744
10.90072
12.90127
13.09906
11.69828
11.09987
11.30157
10.70211
10.09931
9.591119
0.794493
0.9313403
0.9220503
0.7845167
0.8220981
0.8910255
0.8073056
0.9514406
1.147907
1.172609
1.281051
1.165962
0.9789106
1.410951
1.197838
1.288368
1.102253
1.197657
1.299984
1.198611
1.299252
1.097604
1.39977
1.398396
1.40188
1.699717
1.39761
1.500135
1.400136
1.400427
1.341477
1.33858
1.482977
1.163253
1.328468
1.23455
1.484741
1.336579
1.339292
1.405225
1.333491
1.14974
Note: Rates of homicide and suicide are expressed as total number of deaths per 100,000 of the Australian population.
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