Professional Documents
Culture Documents
SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2016
Tomorrow's
Military
How Much
Is Enough?
tomorrow's military
F O R E I G N A F F A I R S .C O M
$445 BILLION
could face.
302-651-1665.
wilmingtontrust.com/assetprotection.
This article is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the sale of any financial product or service. This article is not designed or
intended to provide financial, tax, legal, accounting, or other professional advice since such advice always requires consideration of individual circumstances. If professional
advice is needed, the services of your professional advisor should be sought.
Private Banking is the marketing name for an offering of M&T Bank deposit and loan products and services.
Wilmington Trust is a registered service mark. Wilmington Trust Corporation is a wholly owned subsidiary of M&T Bank Corporation (M&T). Investment management and
fiduciary services are provided by Wilmington Trust Company, operating in Delaware only, and Wilmington Trust, N.A., a national bank. Loans, retail and business deposits,
and other personal and business banking services and products are offered by M&T Bank, member FDIC.
2016 Wilmington Trust Corporation and its affiliates. All rights reserved.
TOMORROWS MILITARY
Notes From the Chairman 2
September/October 2016
Master of Arts in
International Studies
ESSAYS
Building on Success 46
68
76
83
94
102
111
ON FOREIGNAFFAIRS.COM
Shannon ONeil on
Argentina and Brazil.
Kathleen McNamara on
Brexits false democracy.
Kanchan Chandra on
Indias authoritarianism.
September/October 2016
121
133
142
149
155
The Lincoln Brigade and the Legacy of the Spanish Civil War
Sebastiaan Faber
Worth the Trip?
162
165
191
Foreign Affairs . . . will tolerate wide differences of opinion. Its articles will not represent any consensus
of beliefs. What is demanded of them is that they shall be competent and well informed, representing honest
opinions seriously held and convincingly expressed. . . . It does not accept responsibility for the views in any
articles, signed or unsigned, which appear in its pages. What it does accept is the responsibility for giving
them a chance to appear.
Archibald Cary Coolidge, Founding Editor
Volume 1, Number 1 September 1922
September/October 2016
Editors
Book Reviewers
Media Relations
Board of Advisers
JAMI MISCIK Chair
Foreign Affairs
58 E. 68th Street, New York, NY 10065
ADVERTISING: Call Edward Walsh at 212-434-9527 or visit
www.foreignaffairs.com/advertising
WEB SITE: ForeignAffairs.com
NEWSLETTER: ForeignAffairs.com/newsletters
VIDEO: ForeignAffairs.com/video
FACEBOOK: Facebook.com/ForeignAffairs
R EPRODUCTION: The contents of Foreign Affairs are copyrighted. No part of the magazine may be reproduced, hosted
or distributed in any form or by any means without prior written permission from Foreign Affairs. To obtain permission, visit
ForeignAffairs.com/about-us
Foreign Affairs is a member of the Alliance for Audited Media and the Association of Magazine Media.
GST Number 127686483RT
Canada Post Customer #4015177 Publication #40035310
Visit Graduate.norwich.edu/fapa
BE THE CHANGE.
Norwich is an Equal Opportunity Employer.
Security Studies
Georgetown University
SSP offers:
36 Credit hours
7 Concentrations
Flexible full and
part-time enrollment
Fall and spring admission
To learn more, visit
http://ssp.georgetown.edu
or call 202-687-5679.
I believe so strongly in
SSP, it truly changed my
life. My SSP education
allowed me opportunities
to travel the world and
serve in a leadership
position in my career in
international security.
Taylor Hazelton, SSP 08
CONTRIBUTORS
Before becoming a leading critic of U.S. national
security policy, ANDREW BACEVICH was a player in it.
After graduating from West Point, serving in Vietnam,
and rising to the rank of colonel, Bacevich earned a doctorate in diplomatic history from Princeton University and
became a professor at Boston University. In a series of
books and articles, he has sketched a more restrained
vision of Washingtons role in the world, and in Ending
Endless War (page 36), he argues that the next administration should avoid the mistakes of its predecessors.
RACHED GHANNOUCHI used to be Tunisias leading dissident;
now he is one of its leading politicians. After decades
in prison and exile, he made a triumphant return to his
country following the so-called Jasmine Revolution in
201011 that drove out the dictator Zine el-Abidine
Ben Ali and kicked off the Arab Spring. As a co-founder
of the Ennahda movement, he has long been a key figure in
global Islamist circles. Now, in From Political Islam to
Muslim Democracy (page 58), he explains how Ennahda has moved beyond its Islamist roots.
Over the past three decades, DAVID OMAND has held many
top national security posts in the British government,
serving as director of the Government Communications
Headquarters (the British equivalent of the U.S. National
Security Agency), permanent secretary of the Home
Office, and the United Kingdoms first security and
intelligence coordinator. Along the way, he found time
to obtain a degree in mathematics and physics and sit
on the board of Londons Natural History Museum. In
Keeping Europe Safe (page 83), Omand traces the
evolution of the contemporary terrorist threat and the
continents counterterrorism response.
TOMORROWS MILITARY
A Conversation With
Martin Dempsey
NIKLAS ASKER
18
Preserving Primacy
Mac Thornberry and
Andrew F. Krepinevich, Jr.
26
36
TOMORROWS MILITARY
Notes From
the Chairman
A Conversation With
Martin Dempsey
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
L A R RY D O W N I N G / R E U T E R S
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
September/October 2016
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
GAIN A
Global Edge
MASTER OF ARTS IN
International
Business and Policy
inspiration
for change.
Transform the world with a PhD in
Global Leadership and Change
from Pepperdine.
GRADUATE SCHOOL OF
EDUCATION &
PSYCHOLOGY
GRADUATE SCHOOL OF
EDUCATION &
PSYCHOLOGY
Scholarships and financial aid available for those who qualify.
GRADUATE SCHOOL OF
EDUCATION &
PSYCHOLOGY
To prepare for your future, get in touch today. 310.568.2366 or 866.503.5467
gsep-recruitment@pepperdine.edu gsep.pepperdine.edu
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
September/October 2016
TOMORROWS MILITARY
Americas
Awesome Military
And How to Make It
Even Better
Michael OHanlon and
David Petraeus
10
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
11
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
L UCAS JAC KS O N / R E U T E R S
13
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
15
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
17
TOMORROWS MILITARY
Rethinking
Nuclear Policy
Taking Stock of the
Stockpile
Fred Kaplan
18
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
19
Fred Kaplan
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
MA XIM S H EM ET OV / REUT E RS
21
Fred Kaplan
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
COLUMBIA
SIPA
At the worlds most global
Master of International
Affairs or Master of
Public Administration
degree that teaches core
analytic skills and pair it with
one of six career-oriented
concentration areas, as well as
a specialization, such as
23
Fred Kaplan
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
September/October 2016
25
TOMORROWS MILITARY
Preserving Primacy
26
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Preserving Primacy
27
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
budgetsespecially in comparison to
the investments that the revisionist
powers are makingputs the United
States and its allies at ever-greater risk.
As former Secretary of Defense Robert
Gates said in 2014, cutting U.S. defense
funding sends a signal that we are
not interested in protecting our global
interests. But Washington needs to do
more than simply spend more money on
defense. It needs a strategy that allocates
these dollars more efficiently and in ways
that create a more effective military.
CHARTING A COURSE
Preserving Primacy
GUA N G N I U / R E U T E R S
29
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Global Master
of
A rt s P r o g r a m
Visit us at fletcher.tufts.edu/GMAP
Courses Include:
Corporate Finance and
Global Financial Markets
Foreign Policy Leadership
International Business
and Economic Law
International Macroeconomics
International Negotiation
International Politics
International Trade
Leadership and Management
Security Studies
Transnational Social Issues
classes start
january and JULY.
CO LU M B I A U N I V E R S I T Y P R E SS
Palestinians in Syria
Centrifugal Empire
ANAHEED AL-HARDAN
JAE HO CHUNG
CHRISTOPHE JAFFRELOT
CUPBLOG . ORG
Preserving Primacy
31
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
#1 in
International
Relations
International
Security
Setting the agenda for
scholarship on international
security affairs for forty years.
IS-FA-skinny bw july16.indd 1
33
7/15/2016 12:55:19 PM
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Preserving Primacy
September/October 2016
35
TOMORROWS MILITARY
Ending
Endless War
36
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
37
Andrew J. Bacevich
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
S HAM I L Z H U MAT OV / R E U T E R S
39
Andrew J. Bacevich
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
T EL : 303-444-6684 www.rienner.com
41
Andrew J. Bacevich
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
43
Andrew J. Bacevich
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
SPONSORED SECTION
Adapting to a Changing
Global Landscape
ForeignAffairs.com/GraduateSchoolForum
SPONSORED SECTION
Contents
Georgetown University, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
SFS: Approaching 100 Years of Service to the World
Joel S. Hellman
Lyuba Zarsky
Allen J. Morrison
Victor Shih
Tom Casier
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Deborah Avant
Jennifer Butte-Dahl
Texas A&M University, The Bush School of Government and Public Service .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
11
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
12
Raymond Robertson
The Best University to See the Changing International Relations of the Asian Pacific Firsthand
Masahisa Koyama
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
13
Adapting to a Changing Global Landscape at the Fredrick S. Pardee School of Global Studies at Boston University
Bob Loftis
National University of Singapore (NUS), Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Preparing for the Asian Century
Kishore Mahbubani
Allison Cordell
SPONSORED SECTION
Allison Archambault
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
18
Enrico Letta
Eric Schwartz
Markus Kornprobst
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
22
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
23
Angela Evans
Offering a Global Learning Environment at the Frontier of Pressing Public Policy Debates
Wolfgang Reinicke
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
24
Kathryn Stoner
Andrea Bartoli
Michele L. Malvesti
Ivan Kurilla
Directory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
SPONSORED SECTION
Joel S. Hellman
Dean
Walsh School of Foreign Service
Georgetown University
SFS: Approaching
100 Years of Service
to the World
How does SFS prepare graduate students for
changes around the world?
The SFS Centennial is quickly approaching in 2019, and
we have been thinking deeply about how to update our
approach for the 100 years ahead. Some things remain
the same, even as international concerns have shifted
from maritime trade to issues like global warming and
terrorism. As ever, SFS offers an intensive graduate education, delivered by faculty who are both top scholars
and, due to Georgetowns ideal location in Washington,
D.C., engaged practitioners with personal experience
facing complex problems. At SFS, students get to
deepen their understanding of key global issues from a
multi-disciplinary perspective and to put into practice
what they are learning through internships and direct
engagement with decision-makers and practitioners.
SPONSORED SECTION
Theres Nothing
Traditional About an
Internationally Focused
Graduate Degree from
the Middlebury Institute
As the pace of global change continues to accelerate,
how important is it for international professionals to nurture skills and capacities that move
beyond traditional disciplinary boundaries?
Global problems and solutions are remarkably similar in
their underlying economic, political, and organizational
structure. They are multifaceted problems that require
interdisciplinary research to understand them, and
multisector collaborations to nudge them in positive
directions. To work effectively in a global context, professionals must cultivate both broad and deep disciplinary
knowledge, as well as hard and soft analytical and
communication skills. Given economic globalization,
international professionals must also be familiar with the
basics of global markets and the global political economy.
In some fields, such as sustainability management and
international education management, the demand for
savvy international professionals is propelling whole
new disciplines, creating a blend of traditional business,
finance, science, policy, and management studies.
SPONSORED SECTION
Allen J. Morrison
The Thunderbird
Difference
What do students need to prepare for careers in
todays rapidly changing world?
We embrace volatility and uncertainty at Thunderbird
and our promise since coming into being in the years
following World War II has always been to prepare our
students to be leaders in environments of ambiguity.
Dealing with change, uncertainty, and the unexpected
is at the core of what we teach at Thunderbird.
One of the challenges for students today, for
anyone who wants to boost his or her opportunities
in an international career, is finding a way to stand out.
How can you differentiate yourself, find your niche, and
achieve your ambitions?
In looking at a career in global management, by
definition you are looking for something different.
Thats what Thunderbird provides - starting with two
degrees that are specialized, the Master of Global
Management and the Master of Arts in Global Affairs
& Management, and that also includes our top-ranked
programs for executive education.
From the people with whom you study, to the faculty
from whom you learn, to the global settings in which
experiential learning happens, a Thunderbird experience is different from what you can get anywhere else.
We invite you to ask our alumni and judge for yourself.
www.thunderbird.asu.edu | admissions.tbird@asu.edu
602.978.7100 or 800.457.6966 (US)
SPONSORED SECTION
Victor Shih
Associate Professor
School of Global Policy and Strategy
UC San Diego
Asia Expertise:
Uniting Students &
Faculty
SPONSORED SECTION
Academic Director
Brussels School of International Studies
University of Kent
Advanced International
Studies in the Capital
of Europe with World
Leading Academics
and Experienced
Practitioners
What makes BSIS different from comparable
institutions offering advanced postgraduate
teaching?
While being an integral part of the University of Kent, a
top 20 UK university, we give students an opportunity
to study international affairs in a city where key decisions are made on a daily basis, be it on the refugee
crisis or the deployment of troops on NATOs eastern
borders. Students have the opportunity to specialize in two subjects within their degreean MA in
International Migration with Human Rights Law, for
example. Although our focus is on international studies,
we link back to how this integrates with the EU and the
EUs relationship with the outside world e.g. through
our degree in EU External Relations.
We are also introducing a new secondary specialization in Foreign Policy, which will complement all of
our degrees and allow students the opportunity to link
their chosen specialization to theory and give a greater
breadth of study within contemporary themes. Due to
the nature of the subject, our curriculum is constantly
evaluated and developed to reflect the rapidly changing
world of international relations.
SPONSORED SECTION
SPONSORED SECTION
Jennifer Butte-Dahl
Director
Master of Arts in Applied International Studies
Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies
University of Washington
10
SPONSORED SECTION
Understanding and
Dealing with Global
Change
The Bush School opened its doors on the Texas A&M
University campus in 1997. The Universitys service and
leadership ideals, which reflect those of our namesake,
George H.W. Bush, are a guiding force in our instruction. We offer a high-quality and affordable education
for those who desire careers in public service and
international affairs.
11
SPONSORED SECTION
Masahisa Koyama
12
SPONSORED SECTION
Adapting to a
Changing Global
Landscape at the
Fredrick S. Pardee
School of Global
Studies at Boston
University
13
SPONSORED SECTION
Professor
Kishore Mahbubani
Dean
Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, NUS
Former Singapore Ambassador to the UN
14
SPONSORED SECTION
15
SPONSORED SECTION
Dean
Louis A. Bantle Chair in Business-Government Policy
Maxwell School, Syracuse University
16
SPONSORED SECTION
Allison Archambault
Sparking
Innovation
in Energy
How did your experience at Johns Hopkins SAIS
prepare you for your current role?
Disrupting the status quo in energy infrastructure is
a bigbut necessarytask. My nonprofit organization develops business models that bring clean and
affordable energy services to populations that have
never before had electricity. Energy intersects with
finance, policy, community engagement, international
relations, technology, and a million other things. My
studies deepened my thinking about infrastructure
planning and financial modeling and informed my
thinking of these adjacent issues. When it comes to
successful execution, it really comes down to getting
all of the details right, and Johns Hopkins SAIS is
great for helping lay the groundwork for managing
all of those details.
17
SPONSORED SECTION
Enrico Letta
Dean
Paris School of International Affairs (PSIA), Sciences Po
Former Prime Minister, Italy
Study to Know,
Know to Understand,
Understand to Act.
What encouraged you to take up the
position as Dean of the Paris School of
International Affairs (PSIA) at Sciences Po
in September 2015?
PSIA is today recognized as one of the worlds leading
professional schools of international affairs, and with
my 25 years of experience in European politics and
public affairs I was eager to contribute to such an
outstanding community, in a multilingual environment
that is indeed designed to prepare for our worlds
changing landscape. PSIA truly manages to combine
both theory and practice, and from my perspective,
this is essential to best train tomorrows leaders
and change-makers at a national and international
level. Bringing together brilliant students from more
than 100 countries and world-renowned faculty and
practitioners, PSIA has created a space that fosters
dialogue, understanding and, most of all, action for
the 21st Century.
18
SPONSORED SECTION
Eric Schwartz
Dean
Humphrey School of Public Affairs
19
SPONSORED SECTION
Transnational Security:
Examining Today's
Risks and Tomorrow's
Emerging Threats in a
Strategic Context
You lead the MS in Global Affairs concentration in
Transnational Security. What does this concentration cover, and to what careers does it lead?
The concentration in Transnational Security runs the
gamut from conventional interstate threats to sub-state
threats including civil war, terrorism, insurgency, and
organized crime, in addition to environmental threats
including climate change; infectious disease; and food,
water, and energy security. Students grapple with the
implications of the Iranian nuclear agreement, Russias
actions in Ukraine, the rise of ISIS, the refugee crisis, a
proliferation of failed states, intelligence reform, drug
and human trafficking, homegrown radicalization,
and post-conflict reconstruction. We discuss how
technology and globalization alter the conduct of war
and challenge norms from cyber to nonlinear warfare,
to unmanned weapons, and terrorists use of social
media, encryption, and the Dark Web.
Employers find our students possess not only the
academic knowledge and analytic skills necessary to
excel, but also the practical experience and connections
in their field. Graduates work as intelligence analysts or
officers in the military or at US government agencies (or in
similar organizations in their home countries). Our alumni
are employed as intelligence or political risk analysts in
the private sector at organizations such as Kroll, RANE,
Morgan Stanley, and AIG. Others are on the front lines
of counterterrorism, monitoring and analyzing terrorist
behavior on the Internet and Dark Web for companies
such as Dataminir and Flashpoint. Many put their skills to
use as research analysts for think tanks, NGOs, or the UN.
20
SPONSORED SECTION
Vicissitude and
Permanence in Face
of a Changing Global
Landscape
Teaching and research at the Diplomatic Academy of
Vienna (DA), the Vienna School of International Studies,
are shaped by an interdisciplinary approach to embrace
the complex elements of international affairs; they rest
on multidisciplinary pillars (international relations,
international economics, international and European
law, and history) and reflect changes in the world while
preserving the tradition of the DA as an outstanding
academic institution of international affairs. Since 1754,
the DA has had strong institutional and professional
ties to diplomacy and international affairs on a national,
European, and international level. The emphasis on
and proximity to the practical world is a key element
of studying at the DA. In addition to its longstanding
one-year Diploma Programme, the DA offers a Master
of Advanced International Studies (MAIS) programme,
a Master of Science in Environmental Technology
and International Affairs, and a PhD Programme in
Interdisciplinary International Studies, all aimed at
preparing young people for international careers and
leading positions in their chosen field.
21
SPONSORED SECTION
Angela Evans
Dean
Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs
The University of Texas at Austin
Preparing Modern
Policy Entrepreneurs
for the World Arena
22
SPONSORED SECTION
Wolfgang Reinicke
Founding Dean
School of Public Policy
Central European University
Offering a Global
Learning Environment
at the Frontier of
Pressing Public
Policy Debates
In what ways does SPPs curriculum prepare
students for the future?
There is a severe crisis in public policy today. Policymakers seem incapable of addressing compelling public
policy problemsproblems that revolve around issues
such as the distribution of resources, identity, income
inequality, and migration. This school was established
to provide students with the knowledge and the skills
that are required to meaningfully engage with these
and other public policy issues and to ensure that policy
interventions do not do more harm than good.
All three of SPPs masters programs are firmly
grounded in the policy world. Students enrolled in
the two-year MPA program, for example, are required
to complete a series of Skills For Impact modules on
topics such as policy writing, negotiations, and presentationsall skills they will need to be effective in
the policy world.
SPP provides a truly global learning environment.
Our students come from six continents and more than
60 countries. They bring diverse perspectives to the
classroom. Their presence also enables our students to
build transnational networks that will help them have
an impact in their home countries and throughout their
careers. Diversity is also a central way of developing
emotional intelligence and the understanding that
policy-makers cannot impose top-down solutions but
must instead engage a broad array of stakeholders.
23
SPONSORED SECTION
The Intersection of
Global Policy and
Innovation
What are the distinguishing features of the
Ford Dorsey Program in International Policy
Studies (IPS)?
We are a small program (25 students per year), which
helps create a strong sense of community and common
purpose. At the same time, we are embedded in a
great research university. Students are able to take full
advantage of the wide range of classes across Stanford
while completing IPS core curriculum.
Our model is also different from that of our competitors. We believe the best solutions to international
policy problems should come from a range of perspectives and disciplines, rather than the traditional
disciplines of economics or political science. Our
students can take classes almost anywhere at Stanford,
including the Graduate School of Business, Stanford
Law School, the School of Education, and Stanfords
very popular d.School. As a result, we have a distinctly
interdisciplinary approach to the study of global policy
challenges and solutions.
Lastly, the IPS program includes a heavily subsidized spring break trip, a funded summer internship
between the first and second years of the program, and a
second-year practicum exercise where students provide
real-world policy recommendations for clients like the
World Bank, the United Nations High Commissioner
for Refugees, and the US Department of State, to name
but a few. This past spring break, students traveled to
India and met with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. And
last year, they met with Aung San Suu Kyi in Myanmar.
24
SPONSORED SECTION
Dean
School of Diplomacy and International Relations
Seton Hall University
Finding Pathways
to Peace
How is Seton Hall Universitys School of
Diplomacy and International Relations adapting
its curriculum to changes in the world while
preparing for the future?
We are passionate about working together to find
ways of restoring stability and security in our world.
The School of Diplomacy offers a graduate degree
specialization and an online certificate in Post-Conflict
State Reconstruction and Sustainability. Many of our
instructors and guest lecturers can explore through
first-hand experience whats behind a crisis, as well
as what can be done to avoid, manage and resolve
conflict. Seton Hall University is also a leader in
global health studies and health management. We
were inspired to combine these two strengths into
a certificate program in Global Health Management
that looks at what is going on in the world today in
terms of infectious and chronic diseases, for example,
and teaches our students how to address these challenges. The program also allows us to tap into one of
the benefits of our location just outside of New York
Cityour connections to leading health professionals, area hospitals, and international organizations,
such as the UN.
25
SPONSORED SECTION
Michele L. Malvesti
26
SPONSORED SECTION
Ivan Kurilla
Focus on Eurasia
European University at St. Petersburg is among
the top research universities in social sciences
and humanities in Russia. It is sometimes
compared with Formula 1 racing. What makes
your university so different?
European University at St. Petersburg (EUSP) is not
a typical Russian university. It is a private graduate
school that attracts some of the best scholars and leading experts from Russia and abroad. We produce top
research in humanities and social sciences and teach
talented graduate students interested in studying Russia
and Post-Soviet space. The 3:1 student/professor ratio
ensures individual guidance and personal attention to
each of our students. Our international community of
professors, administrators, and students make us the
most cosmopolitan of Russian universities.
St. Petersburg is arguably the most beautiful city in
Russia, full of cultural and academic attractions, living
its vibrant life on the edge between Russia and Europe.
Our students take full advantage of its unique archives
and libraries and excellent theaters and museums.
27
SPONSORED SECTION
Directory
Boston University
Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies
Ritsumeikan University
Graduate School of International Relations
Sciences Po
Paris School of the International Affairs (PSIA)
bu.edu/pardeeschool
psgsgrad@bu.edu
617.353.9349
spp.ceu.edu
sppadmissions@ceu.edu
+36 1.327.3110
www.da-vienna.ac.at
info@da-vienna.ac.at
+43 1.505.72.72 x120
eu.spb.ru/international
international@eu.spb.ru
+7 812.386.76.48
Fletcher.Tufts.edu
FletcherAdmissions@Tufts.edu
617.627.3040
Georgetown University
Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service
sfs.georgetown.edu
sfscontact@georgetown.edu
202.687.5696
28
lkyspp.nus.edu.sg
lkypostgrad@nus.edu.sg
+65 6516.8004
www.ritsumei.ac.jp/gsir/eng
ir-adm@st.ritsumei.ac.jp
+81 75.465.1211
www.sciencespo.fr/psia
+33 1.45.49.50.50
Diplomacy.shu.edu
Diplomat@shu.edu
973.275.2514
Stanford University
Ford Dorsey Program in International
Policy Studies (IPS)
ips.stanford.edu
ips-information@stanford.edu
650.725.9075
Syracuse University
Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs
maxwell.syr.edu/paia
paia@maxwell.syr.edu
315.443.4000
SPONSORED SECTION
Directory (continued)
Thunderbird School of Global Management
at Arizona State University
University of Minnesota
Humphrey School of Public Affairs
UC San Diego
School of Global Policy and Strategy
University of Denver
Josef Korbel School of International Studies
University of Washington
Henry M. Jackson School of
International Studies
www.thunderbird.asu.edu
admissions.tbird@asu.edu
602.978.7100 or 800.457.6966 (US)
gps.ucsd.edu
gps-apply@ucsd.edu
858.534.5914
www.du.edu/korbel
korbeladm@du.edu
303.871.2544
University of Kent
Brussels School of International Studies
www.kent.ac.uk/brussels
bsis@kent.ac.uk
+32 2.641.1721
hhh.umn.edu
hhhadmit@umn.edu
612.624.3800
lbj.utexas.edu
lbjadmit@austin.utexas.edu
512.471.3200
appliedinternationalstudies.uw.edu
maais@uw.edu
206.221.8577
About APSIA
The Association of Professional Schools of International
Affairs (APSIA) brings together the leading graduate
programs dedicated to professional education in
international affairs. Members have demonstrated
excellence in multidisciplinary, policy-oriented international studies.
apsia@apsia.org
ForeignAffairs.com/GraduateSchoolForum
29
NEW
OK
O
eB
Brexit and
Beyond
ALSO AVAILABLE ON
ESSAYS
No country is better
positioned than the United
States to lead in the
twenty-first century. But it
is worth remembering that
our indispensable role in
the world is not inevitable.
Joseph Biden
Building on Success
Joseph R. Biden, Jr.
46
58
68
102
111
83
121
133
Building on Success
Opportunities for the Next Administration
Joseph R. Biden, Jr.
From the outset, our administration has been guided by the belief that
the foundations of U.S. global leadership reside first and foremost in
our dynamic economy, peerless military, and universal values. We have
built on these core strengths by expanding and modernizing the United
States unrivaled network of alliances and partnerships and embedding
them within a wider international order of rules and institutions.
Having inherited a deep economic recession, our administration
first sought to steer an economy in collapse through an arduous recovery.
In doing so, we have reestablished our standing as the worlds strongest
and most innovative major economy, undergirded by the rule of law,
the finest research universities, and an unparalleled culture of entrepreneur
ship. Smart investments coupled with American ingenuity have also
made the United States the epicenter of a global energy revolution,
both in renewables and in fossil fuels.
JOSEPH R. BIDEN, JR., is Vice President of the United States.
46
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Building on Success
September/October 2016
47
action to address just about every major challenge, from the Islamic
State (or isis) to Ebola to climate change.
Equally critical has been our commitment to strengthening the
open international system, embracing the time-tested approach that
spurred Americas rise in the previous century. The United States built
the basic architecture of the international order after the devastation
of World War II, and it has served us and the world well ever since.
Thats why we have invested so much energy to defend and extend the
rules of the road, signing historic arms control and nonproliferation
agreements and leading worldwide efforts to lock down nuclear materials,
expand trade, protect the environment, and promote new norms to
address emergent challenges at sea and in cyberspace.
As a result, no country is better positioned than the United States
to lead in the twenty-first century. But it is worth remembering that our
indispensable role in the world is not inevitable. If the next administration
chooses to turn inward, it could very well squander the hard-earned
progress weve made not just over the past seven and a half years but
also over the past seven decades.
Although the next president will be confronted with innumerable
issues, four tasks loom large: seizing transformative opportunities on
both sides of the Pacific, managing relations with regional powers,
leading the world to address complex transnational challenges, and
defeating violent extremism.
PACIFIC OPPORTUNITIES
The next president should deepen U.S. engagement with the most
dynamic regions of the world by seizing possibilities on both sides
of the Pacific, starting right here in the Western Hemisphere.
Canada, Latin America, and the Caribbean have an outsize impact on
our domestic security and prosperity, and in the twenty-first
century, the Western Hemisphere should figure prominently among
our top foreign policy priorities.
Were already seeing the returns of a renewed focus on the region.
Because of the way President Obama and I have prioritized improving
relations with our neighbors, including the opening to Cuba, the United
States standing in the hemisphere has never been higher. The next
administration should build on this momentum to strengthen the security
and prosperity of people throughout the Americas. The table is set to
deepen cooperation with Canada and Mexico, capitalize on renewed
48
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Building on Success
September/October 2016
49
Indeed, in nearly every part of the world, the United States contends
with regional powers that have an enormous capacity to contribute to
the international orderor to undermine it. Much will rest on how
America chooses to lead.
Nowhere is this truer than in our relationship with China. The
United States and China are the worlds two largest economies, so
our fates are inescapably intertwined. President Obama and I have
sought to define this relationship through enhanced cooperation and
responsible competition. We have found common ground with Beijing
and made historic progress to address such global challenges as climate
change, pandemic disease, poverty, and nuclear proliferation. At the
same time, we have stood firm on such issues as human rights,
intellectual property, and freedom of navigation.
This balancing act will only grow more difficult in the context of
Chinas economic slowdown and the worrying steps Beijing is taking
to reverse course on more than three decades of economic reform and
opening up to the world. As a result, the next administration will have
to steer a relationship with China that encompasses both breakthrough
cooperation and, potentially, intensified competition. And sometimes,
as when facing the mounting threat from North Korea, cooperation
and competition with China will coexist. The notion that it will be all
one or the other is shortsighted and self-defeating.
The same is true with regard to Russia, with which the United States
should continue to pursue a policy that combines the urgent need for
deterrence, on the one hand, with the prudent pursuit of tactical
cooperation and strategic stability, on the other. Russias illegal attempt
to annex Crimea and its continued aggression in eastern Ukraine violate
50
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
sanford.duke.edu
Rigorous Analysis, Inspired Action
The Center for International and Regional Studies (CIRS) at Georgetown University-Qatar is a premier
research institute devoted to the academic study of regional and international issues through dialogue and
exchange of ideas, research and scholarship, and engagement with scholars, opinion makers, practitioners, and
activists. To contribute to the existing body of knowledge on issues related to the Persian Gulf region and the
Middle East, CIRS sponsors empirically-based research initiatives and publishes original books in these areas.
cirs.georgetown.edu
Building on Success
September/October 2016
51
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Building on Success
the health of women and children across Africa. And through our Global
Health Security Agenda, a partnership between the United States and
some 50 other countries that our administration launched in 2014, we
are strengthening the capacity of vulnerable countries in Africa and
around the world to combat future outbreaks. Improving health security
represents just one facet of our growing relationship with Africa.
Through such forums as the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit and the Young
African Leaders Initiative, we have engaged with African leaders on all
levels, from heads of state to civil society, expanding and deepening
partnerships that contribute to the continents increasingly bright future.
American leadership has also proved decisive in addressing climate
change. Our administrations landmark investments at home have
tripled the amount of electricity we harness from the wind and
increased our solar power 20-fold since 2008. Weve put in place rules
that will double the fuel efficiency of our cars by 2025, and weve set
forth an unprecedented plan to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide
that our power plants emit. These are the most significant steps the
United States has ever taken domestically to combat climate change,
and because our actions proved that we take this threat seriously, we
were able to rally other countries to make concrete commitments of their
ownstarting with China, the worlds leading emitter. Thats how we
achieved last years historic Paris agreement to combat climate change.
At the same time, were working to increase the resilience of com
munities that are already being affected by rising temperatures and
extreme weather, at home and around the world. Were implementing
strategies to address the increased risk of flooding in coastal
communities and improving our national resilience in the face of longterm droughts. Were also building climate considerations into all our
efforts to promote sustainable development around the world, including
aid programs such as Feed the Future, which supports climate-smart
agriculture. Our $3 billion pledge to the uns Green Climate Fund
will help the poorest and most vulnerable nations become more
resilient to climate change. And through a bold initiative called Power
Africa, weve set a goal of doubling access to electricity on the continent
through clean and sustainable methods.
Through all these efforts, weve laid the groundwork to protect our
planet. But the resulting opportunities can be seized only if the next
president follows the science, recognizes the dangers of doing nothing,
and musters the political will to address the threat.
September/October 2016
53
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Building on Success
when and how to deploy military power to address this danger. Even
as we have removed more than 165,000 U.S. troops from combat in
Afghanistan and Iraq, President Obama has never hesitated to use
force to defend the American people when necessary. Just ask
Osama bin Laden and al Qaedas top operatives in Afghanistan and
Pakistan, the leaders of al Qaedas affiliates in Somalia and Yemen,
and more than 120 of isis top leaders
and commanders. Our administration
If the next administration
has not been hamstrung by an ideology
of restraint, as our most vocal critics chooses to turn inward, it
allege. Rather, we carefully consider could very well squander
the use of force because we understand the hard-earned progress
the tremendous human costs and unfore
seen consequences of war. We must weve made.
ensure that when we do use force, it is
effective. Accordingly, we have taken precise and proportional military
actions, guided by a clear mission that advances U.S. interests. When
ever possible, we have acted alongside allies and partners so that they
will share the burden and become invested in the missions success.
And perhaps most important, we have used force in a manner that is
sustainable. Weve learned in no uncertain terms that success on the
battlefield will not endure if U.S. military involvement outpaces
political developments on the ground or the ability of local partners to
control their own territory. Lasting victory against al Qaeda and isis
will therefore require viable indigenous forces to hold liberated areas,
rebuild shattered communities, and govern effectively. Thats why weve
worked with more than three dozen nations to train Afghan forces to
hunt down al Qaeda and other terrorist groups. And thats why weve
invested so much in building a partnership with the Government of
National Accord in Libya and with other African governmentsfrom
Nigeria to Somalia to Tunisiato go after al Qaeda and isis affiliates.
In Iraq and Syria, weve built a 66-member coalition to train local
forces, and weve provided afflicted communities with critical humani
tarian and stabilization assistance. Weve deployed special operations
forces, and as of July 2016, our coalition has carried out more than
13,000 air strikes in support of local ground forces. With enhanced
intelligence sharing and law enforcement cooperation, we have worked
with our partners to improve their border security, reduce the flow of
foreign fighters into Iraq and Syria by 50 percent, and strangle isis
September/October 2016
55
finances. The result: isis is losing. Over the past two years, the group
has been under siege from western Iraq to northern Syria, losing approx
imately 50 percent of the populated territory it once held in Iraq and
more than 20 percent in Syria. Weve taken thousands of isis frontline
fighters off the battlefield, and the group has lost a quarter of its overall
manpower. Its morale is plummeting, and its hold over local populations
is loosening.
Meanwhile, were working with the international community to provide
billions of dollars in humanitarian aid to displaced people in Iraq and
Syria and refugees across the region and billions more to stabilize and
rebuild communities liberated from isis. To address the grievances that
give such groups oxygen, we are engaged at the highest levels in Iraq to
encourage greater political inclusivity and reconciliation across that
countrys ethnosectarian divide. And we are aggressively pursuing
a diplomatic settlement to produce a political transition in Syria
because not only is there no military solution to the conflict; there is
also no way to end it so long as Bashar al-Assad remains in power.
It is worth recalling that what initially set isis apart in 2014 was the
groups attempt to carve out both a state and a self-described caliphate
in the heart of the Arab world. This risked creating a territorial
platform for attacks on the West. This is the threat we are systematically
dismantling in Iraq and Syria, and the one we are making progress in
undoing in Libya.
But even when isis would-be caliphate is destroyed, the jihadist
challenge will continue. Other violent jihadist movements with localized
agendassome that are distinct from isis and others that have appro
priated its brandwill likely continue to exploit ungoverned spaces
and threaten stability in key countries. Boko Haram was a threat to
Nigeria long before it renamed itself the Islamic States West African
Province, for example, and it will still have to be addressed even if
isis core is destroyed. More broadly, the Salafi jihadist ideology that
underpins such groups does not require territory to radicalize lone
wolves to carry out attacks like those in San Bernardino, Orlando, and
Nice. And foreign fighters returning home from the front may con
tinue to attempt attacks like those in Paris and Brussels.
The next administration will have to continue to address this
challenge in a smart, sustainable, and holistic manner. This will require
the disciplined application of military force, alongside the best efforts
of our intelligence and law enforcement communities, diplomats, and
56
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Building on Success
The next administration will have a lot on its plate: uniting the
Western Hemisphere, deepening our alliances and partnerships in
Asia, managing complex relationships with regional powers, and
addressing severe transnational challenges such as climate change
and terrorism. But because of the actions weve taken and the
boundless energy and resilience of the American people, Ive never
been more optimistic about our capacity to guide the international
community to a more peaceful and prosperous future. It bears under
scoring, however, that U.S. leadership has never sprung from some
inherent American magic. Instead, we have earned it over and over
again through hard work, discipline, and sacrifice.
There is simply too much at stake for the United States to draw
back from our responsibilities now. The choices we make today will
steer the future of our planet. In the face of enormous challenges and
unprecedented opportunities, the world needs steady American
leadership more than ever.
September/October 2016
57
58
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
September/October 2016
59
Rached Ghannouchi
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
and felt excluded from the political system, especially owing to the
states repression of any expression of religiosity, whether in public or
private. Mti members set up discussion groups, published journals,
and organized students on university campuses.
In April 1981, the Bourguiba regime consented to the registration
of other political parties. The mti submitted a request to form a party
committed to democracy, political pluralism, the peaceful sharing and
alternation of power, free and fair elections as the sole source of
political legitimacy, the protection of moderate religious scholar
ship, and the promotion of a form of modernization that would be in
harmony with Tunisias values and cultural heritage. But the application
was ignored by authorities.
Faced with rising calls for reform, the regime instead expanded
its crackdown, arresting around 500 mti members, myself included.
Between 1981 and 1984, I was imprisoned along with many of my
colleagues. Shortly after our release, many of us were rearrested,
accused of inciting violence and seeking to change the nature of
the state. Many Ennahda members were sentenced to life in prison
after sham trials, as the regime deepened its descent into repression
and despotism.
The rise to power of Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, who deposed Bourguiba
in a 1987 coup dtat, seemed to signal a potential political opening.
The following year, Ben Ali granted an amnesty to all political prisoners
and announced the beginning of a new
era of multiparty democracy. The mti
Ennahdas evolution proves
again applied for recognition as a poli
tical party, changing its name to Hizb that Islamist movements can
Ennahda (the Renaissance Party). How play a vital role in successful
ever, the application was again ignored, democratic transitions.
and the hoped-for opening soon proved
to be a mirage, as the Ben Ali regime
reverted to the repressive tactics of the Bourguiba era. After the
1989 national elections, in which independent candidates linked to
Ennahda won 13 percent of the overall vote and, according to some
sources, as much as 30 percent in some major urban areas, the
regime moved to crush the party. Tens of thousands of members
were arrested, imprisoned, tortured, blacklisted from employment
and educational opportunities, and subjected to police harassment.
Many others, including me, were forced into exile.
September/October 2016
61
Rached Ghannouchi
For the next two decades, Tunisia languished under repression, and
Ennahda struggled to survive as a banned underground movement. A
turning point finally came in December 2010, when a young Tunisian
street vendor named Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire in front of
a local government office to protest the
harassment he had suffered at the hands
The Ennahda-led
of officials. Bouazizis action captured
government did something the public imagination, and in less than
a month, massive protests around the
never before seen in the
region: it willingly stepped country had forced Ben Ali to flee and
had sparked a series of revolts across
down.
the Arab world. Ennahda members
participated in the protests alongside
other Tunisians, but not under the party banner, partly to avoid giving
the regime an excuse to paint the demonstrations as the work of an
opposition group seeking to take power.
In the countrys first free and fair elections, in October 2011,
Ennahdas grass-roots networks and track record of opposing the dicta
torship helped it win the largest share of the vote, by a wide margin.
Seeking a national unity government, Ennahda entered into a pio
neering coalition with two secular parties, setting an important precedent
in contemporary Arab politics.
In Tunisias postrevolutionary era, when tensions have threatened
to overwhelm the countrys fragile democratic structures, Ennahda
has pushed for compromise and reconciliation rather than exclusion
or revenge. During negotiations over a new constitution, Ennahdas
parliamentarians made a series of crucial concessions, consenting to a
mixed presidential-parliamentary system (Ennahda had originally
called for an exclusively parliamentary system) and agreeing that the
constitution would not cite sharia as one of the sources of legislation.
As a result of Ennahdas willingness to compromise and work within
the system, the new constitution enshrines democratic mechanisms,
the rule of law, and a full range of religious, civil, political, social,
economic, cultural, and environmental rights.
In 2013, violent Salafi extremists carried out a series of attacks and
political assassinations, setting off a period of instability and protest.
Seeking to tar Ennahda by falsely associating the party with these
crimes, a number of parliamentarians suspended their participation in
the drafting of the constitution. In response, Ennahda and its coalition
62
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
FORDHAM | IPED
THE GRADUATE PROGRAM IN
INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL ECONOMY AND DEVELOPMENT
FORDHAM UNIVERSITY, NEW YORK CITY
Promoting
Understanding
of Russia
At a time of increasing need for specialists with Russia expertise, the Alfa Fellowship
Program affords exceptional young American, British, and German leaders the
opportunity to receive meaningful professional experience in Russia.
Build Russian language skills
Learn about current affairs through meetings, seminars, and regional trips
Work at prominent organizations in Moscow
Program provisions: monthly stipend, program-related travel costs, housing, insurance
To be eligible, candidates must have relevant professional experience and a graduate
degree, or the equivalent, as well as demonstrate evidence of leadership potential.
Deadline to apply for the 2017 2018 program year: December 1
September/October 2016
63
Rached Ghannouchi
Tunisia has made significant political progress over the last five years.
To consolidate these gains, the government must prioritize social and
economic development. It must go beyond democratic institution
building and carry out economic reforms that will meet the urgent
need for jobs and growth. To this end, Ennahda has called for a com
prehensive national economic dialogue and a participatory approach
64
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
September/October 2016
65
Rached Ghannouchi
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
September/October 2016
67
ver the past three millennia, China has made three attempts
to project its economic power westward. The first began in
the second century bc, during the Han dynasty, when Chinas
imperial rulers developed the ancient Silk Road to trade with the far-off
residents of Central Asia and the Mediterranean basin; the fall of the
Mongol empire and the rise of European maritime trading eventually
rendered that route obsolete. In the fifteenth century ad, the maritime
expeditions of Admiral Zheng He connected Ming-dynasty China to
the littoral states of the Indian Ocean. But Chinas rulers recalled Zhengs
fleet less than three decades after it set out, and for the rest of imperial
history, they devoted most of their attention to Chinas neighbors to the
east and south.
Today, China is undertaking a third turn to the westits most
ambitious one yet. In 2013, Beijing unveiled a plan to connect dozens
of economies across Eurasia and East Africa through a series of infra
structure investments known as the Belt and Road Initiative. The
goal of the B&R, Chinese officials say, is to bring prosperity to the
many developing Asian countries that lack the capacity to undertake
major infrastructure projects on their own by connecting them
through a web of airports, deep-water ports, fiber-optic networks,
highways, railways, and oil and gas pipelines. The B&Rs unstated
goal is equally ambitious: to save China from the economic decline that
its slowing growth rate and high debt levels seem to portend. The
infrastructure initiative, Chinas leaders believe, could create new mar
kets for Chinese companies and at the same time provide a shot in
the arm to the struggling banks and state-owned enterprises whose
GAL LUFT is Co-Director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security and a Senior
Adviser to the United States Energy Security Council.
68
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
September/October 2016
69
Gal Luft
publicly identified that corridor as part of the B&R, it has taken steps
such as purchasing a controlling stake in the Greek port of Piraeus
and announcing a plan to back a high-speed railway connecting it to
Serbia, Hungary, and Germanythat make its intentions fairly clear.)
So far, state-owned Chinese construction and engineering firms
have taken on most of the projects generated by the B&R. Backed by
the deep pockets and political clout of the Chinese government, these
corporate giants are hard to outbid; that will remain the case for the
foreseeable future. As for financing, China has developed dedicated
institutions to back the projects. The Asian Infrastructure Investment
Bank, which opened for business in January, is perhaps the best known
of these. Together with the Silk Road Fund, a B&R-focused Chinese
government fund, and the New Development Bank, a multilateral
development organization formerly known as the brics Development
Bank, the aiib will lend nearly $200 billion to infrastructure projects
over the coming decade.
Most important, China has retooled its foreign policy in service of
the Belt and Road Initiative. To encourage their support for the B&R,
Beijing welcomed India and Pakistan into the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization, a regional bloc; it is likely pushing for Iran to join, too.
In Europe, China has upgraded its relations with the Czech Republic,
turning Prague into the hub of its ventures on the continent. During a
state visit in March, Chinese President Xi Jinping finalized business
and investment deals worth some $4 billion with the Czechs. Driven
by the belief that the B&Rs success depends on stability in the Middle
East, meanwhile, China has recently taken an activist approach in the
region that contrasts starkly with its historical reluctance to get involved
there. In January, Xi became the first foreign leader to visit Iran after
the lifting of international sanctions on that country; on the same trip,
he met with the leaders of Egypt and Saudi Arabia. China has also
attempted to mediate between the rival factions in Syrias civil war; has
supported Saudi Arabias efforts to defeat the Houthi rebels in Yemen;
and, in December 2015, passed a law that will allow the Peoples
Liberation Army to participate in counterterrorism missions abroad.
WASHINGTONS SNUB
The B&R will guide Chinas economic and foreign policy for the fore
seeable future. Yet many China watchers in the United States have
downplayed the initiatives importance, suggesting that it is a public
70
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Roadwork: a map of the Belt and Road Initiative in Hong Kong, January 2016
B O B BY Y I P / R EU T E R S
ity stunt meant to portray China as a benevolent power, a vanity project intended to secure Xis legacy, or an unwieldy boondoggle that
China, which has struggled with some development initiatives in the
past, will fail to execute.
Nowhere is this underappreciation more apparent than in Washington. Congress has not held a single hearing dedicated to the B&R;
neither has the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, a body that Congress created in 2000 to monitor bilateral trade
and security issues. At both the 2015 and the 2016 meetings of the
U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue, the highest-level annual
summit held between the two countries, U.S. and Chinese officials
detailed more than 100 areas of potential cooperation without mention
ing the B&R once, and in their public statements, U.S. officials tend
to refer to the initiative in vague terms. Washington has not only
refused to acknowledge the importance of the B&R; in some cases,
the Americans have attempted to undermine it, as when the United
States futilely opposed the creation of the aiib.
This passive-aggressive approach is misguided: it allows China to
shape Eurasias economic and political future without U.S. input; it
denies American investors opportunities to profit from major infra
structure projects; and, insofar as it seeks to weaken the initiative, it
could stifle a source of much-needed growth for Asias developing econ
September/October 2016
71
Gal Luft
omies and Europes stagnating ones. As the failed U.S. attempt to pre
vent its allies from joining the aiib shows, resisting Chinas regional
economic initiatives puts Washington in an uncomfortable position
with some of its closest partners, many of which see the B&R as a useful
tool for pulling the global economy out of the doldrums. U.S. officials
should also be mindful of history: transnational infrastructure projects
have often bred hostility among great powers when not managed
collaboratively, as the grandiose rail projects of France, Germany,
and the United Kingdom did in the years leading up to World War I.
The United States failure to properly respond to the B&R is espe
cially striking given that Washington inadvertently helped precipitate
Beijings interest in the project. The rebalance, or pivot, to Asia
that U.S. President Barack Obama initiated in 2011 has proved hollow,
but it has nevertheless reinforced Chinas sense of encirclement by the
United States and its allies, as has the Obama administrations de facto
exclusion of China from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Those actions
killed many of Chinas ambitions in the Pacific, leading Beijing to seek
strategic opportunities to its west. In addition, by opposing Chinas
calls for a larger voting share at the International Monetary Fund in
the first decade of this century, the United States pushed Beijing to
establish a multilateral lender of its own. And by backing restrictions
on projects that violated American environmental standards at the
World Bankwhere, in 2013, the United States supported a ban on
funding for most new coal-fired power plantsthe United States
made room for Beijing to develop alternative institutions with the
knowledge that it could find customers among its less scrupulous
neighbors. Even the United States unsustainable federal debt played
a role in the creation of the B&R: as it ballooned in the years after the
2008 financial crisis, the yield on U.S. Treasury bonds plummeted,
pushing China, the worlds largest foreign holder of U.S. debt, to di
rect more of its massive savings to infrastructure instead.
BACKING THE BIG DIG
Over the course of the next four years, Asian countries will need around
$800 billion annually to build the transport, energy, and communica
tions networks that they require to achieve their development goals.
The investment provided by todays development banks meets less
than ten percent of that needand even if the aiib and Chinas other
funding outfits live up to their promise, the money will still fall short.
72
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Think Otherwise.
New and upcoming titles from Cornell University Press
An original and sig-
42
nificant contribution
is a first-rate, highly
to presidency studies
tionably important
hensive assessment.
persuasively argues
42 presents a com-
a majorand most-
ly ignoredturning
Clinton presidency.
Meena Bose, author
of Shaping and Signaling
Presidential Policy
Neapolitan Crime
Families across Europe
FELIA ALLUM
$45.00 cloth
IMPERFECT
STRANGERS
THE INVISIBLE
CAMORRA
Imperfect Strangers
point in U.S.Middle
Eastern relations.
Mark Atwood
Lawrence, author of
Assuming the Burden
ROSELLA CAPPELLA
ZIELINSKI
$45.00 cloth
This innovative and sophisticated Rosella Cappella Zielinski teachbook is an outstanding contribu- es us much about a critical yet
tion not only to the study of Chi- remarkably underresearched topnese economic development but
ic. This masterful book deserves
also to the long-running debate
to be on the shelf of anyone inon the role of institutions in eco- terested in the nexus of internanomic development.
tional relations and international
Ha-Joon Chang, author of
political economy.
Kicking Away the Ladder
Benjamin J. Cohen, author of
and Economics
The Geography of Money
WWW.CORNELLPRESS.CORNELL.EDU
AVAILABLE WHEREVER BOOKS AND EBOOKS ARE SOLD.
$26.95 paper
LISTEN TO
THE WORLD
FIELD
129.99
70 YEAR of
Grundig Heritage
& Quality
Engineering
SAT 750
$
349.99
MINI
$
39.99
TRAVELER III
$
59.99
SATELLIT
199.99
Available at:
www.etoncorp.com
The United States should not allow its concerns about great-power
rivalry to distract it from the challenges this deficit poses to global
prosperity. Above all, Washington should not attempt to leverage its
relationships with the Asian countries where China plans to back
infrastructure projects to stymie the initiatives progress. Such a
course would grant countries such as Kazakhstan, Myanmar, and Sri
Lanka inordinate power, creating new flash points between Beijing
and Washington.
Instead, Washington should approach the B&R with an open mind.
U.S. officials should publicly acknowledge Chinas initiative and the
potential benefits it offers, provided that Beijing leads the effort trans
parently and ensures that it works largely in the service of international
development rather than Chinas own
gain. The two countries should then The B&R could become
find a bilateral forumthe Strategic either a source of greatand Economic Dialogue is just one op
tionin which to discuss a joint eco power competition or a
nomic development agenda and come force for stability.
up with a role for the United States
that plays to its strengths. American defense contractors, for example,
could provide physical security and cybersecurity services to B&R proj
ects, and the U.S. military could help secure some of the more volatile
regions where Washington already has military assets, such as the Horn
of Africa. That would spare China the need to increase its overseas military
presence and bolster the legitimacy of the U.S. forces working in those
areas. The United States should reassure some of its allies, particularly
those in Southeast Asia, where anxiety about Chinas ascendance runs
deep, that the B&R is largely a force for economic development rather
than Chinese expansionism. And U.S. officials should seek a role for
Washington in the aiib, either as a member of the bank or as an observer.
Such a course would have a number of benefits. By cautiously em
bracing the B&R, the United States could ensure that American firms
and investors are not excluded from the opportunities offered by what
might become the biggest economic development project in history.
Washingtons engagement could also encourage some of the Euro
pean, Japanese, and South Korean investors who have been reluctant
to fund Chinese-led infrastructure projects to change their tune
which would have a broadly positive impact on global growth and, by
extension, on the U.S. economy. And by becoming a more active par
September/October 2016
73
Gal Luft
The United States, however, should not give the B&R its blanket sup
port, since doing so would pose serious risks. First, it would feed Russias
fears of U.S.-Chinese collusion, triggering paranoia in the Kremlin,
where there is already concern about Chinas push into former Soviet
states, and Moscow could lash out in response. India poses a similar
challenge. It recognizes the B&Rs economic promise, but like Russia, it
is wary of Chinas motives; specifically, New Delhi is troubled by the
commitments Beijing has made to Pakistan and by Chinas growing pres
ence in the Indian Ocean and the neighboring countries of Bangladesh,
the Maldives, and Sri Lanka. Any perception that China and the United
States are attempting to change the status quo in the region might feed
New Delhis anxiety and accelerate an arms race between China and
India. In both cases, Washington should tread carefully, doing every
thing it can to avoid creating the appearance of unwanted collaboration
between China and the United States. As for the Middle East, the Gulf
states will chafe at the prominent role the B&R could give Iran as a land
bridge between Central Asia and Europe. So Washington should make
clear that its support for Chinas infrastructure push will depend on Bei
jings commitment to preserving the delicate balance of power in the
Persian Gulf, and it should try to ensure that projects that provide eco
nomic boons for Iran are balanced by investments of similar benefit to
the Gulf states. And to ensure that it is seen as a leader on global infra
structure itself, Washington should launch and promote its own infra
structure projects, such as the New Silk Road initiative proposed in 2011
by then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to connect Turkmenistan,
Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India with roads and pipelines.
The greatest risk that the United States would face by supporting the
B&R wholesale is that China could use American goodwill to advance its
own ascendance to the United States detrimentabove all, by attempt
74
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
ing to change the delicate status quo in Southeast Asia and the South
China Sea. If China is indeed pursuing a long-term strategy to supplant
the United States as the worlds dominant power, as some China watchers
contend, then giving it the chance to take such a course would be a grave
mistake. In response to the recent rejection of Chinas historical claims to
most of the South China Sea by an international tribunal, for example,
Beijing might try to build dual-use infrastructure that would further mil
itarize the region and intimidate its rivals there. That is something the
United States should not tolerate, as no degree of economic integration
can justify compromising the United States Pacific alliances.
Chinese officials would likely recognize that U.S. involvement in the
B&R would place some limits on Beijings ability to redraw the lines of
the Eurasian economy. But for reasons of self-interest, they should still
welcome American cooperation. Infrastructure projects tend to carry a
high risk and produce only modest returns on investment; the B&R is
too vast and expensive to rest on one countrys shoulders. American en
gagement would clear the way for co-investments by U.S.-, European-,
and Japanese-led institutions, such as the World Bank, the Asian
Development Bank, and the European Bank for Reconstruction and
Development; it would attract private capital to Chinas projects, as well.
The Belt and Road Initiative could become either a source of greatpower competition or a force for stability and collaboration. Beijing and
Washington can ensure that the latter possibility wins out. In general, the
best course for the United States will be one of selective buy-in: it should
participate in projects that advance its interests, such as infrastructure
investments aimed at improving intraregional trade in Southeast Asia,
while avoiding or resisting those that undermine them. For its part, Bei
jing should prioritize projects that benefit both China and the United
States, and it should put vanity projects on the back burner.
It will take a great deal of magnanimity for the United States to resist
the urge to oppose such a grand strategic initiative as the B&R, espe
cially since Chinas westward push comes at a time when Washington is
increasingly confused about its own role in the world. But the United
States must remember that its response to the project will help deter
mine the future of U.S.-Chinese relations and of the international or
der. And as the global economy slows down and hundreds of millions of
Asians languish with few hopes of escaping poverty, the United States
must recognize that its fate is linked to that of the developing world
and that it should give its blessing to initiatives that will lift all boats.
September/October 2016
75
76
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
local partners can still avoid a dangerous escalation, but only if they
encourage China to abide by the ruling while making clear to Beijing
that it has not been trapped by it.
ENCLAVED
The tribunals ruling was striking for several important reasons. First,
in a surprising move, the tribunal held that all the territories in the
contested Spratly Islands are reefs or rocks, not islands. That distinc
tion matters, because under unclos, reefs cannot generate a claim
to the surrounding waters or airspace, and rocks can serve as the
basis for only a small maritime claim of 12 nautical miles. Islands, on
the other hand, generate a 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic
zone; states can also assert additional rights based on the extent of
the continental shelves that underlie them. China insists that it has
sovereignty over the Spratly Islands, and the tribunal did not rule
on their rightful ownership. But by declaring all of the Spratlys
features to be reefs or rocks, it significantly limited the claims
China can make to the surrounding water and airspace. Under in
ternational law, Chinas outposts in the (now misnamed) Spratly
Islands should be considered isolated enclaves floating in a part of
the ocean that is in the Philippines exclusive economic zone, since
they lie within 200 nautical miles of that countrys territory. And
Beijing cannot use the Spratlys to justify any claims to the sur
rounding waters.
Next, the tribunal found that China had conducted illegal activities
inside the Philippines exclusive economic zone. Chinese vessels, the
tribunal ruled, had fished where they shouldnt have, had dangerously
approached some Philippine boats, and had prevented others from
fishing and extracting petroleum within the zone. Nor was this all: the
tribunal also censured Chinas construction of artificial islands in the
region, which it determined had caused severe environmental damage
and heightened geopolitical tensions.
Finally, the tribunal completely invalidated Chinas claim that it
holds historic rights to the South China Sea through its nine-dash
line, a sweeping cartographic projection that encompasses as much as
90 percent of the waterway. The line was first unveiled by the Republic
of China in 1947 and was adopted by Chinas Communist rulers after
they took power in 1949. Chinese officials have never explained the
nine-dash lines precise legal meaning, but they have repeatedly claimed
September/October 2016
77
Mira Rapp-Hooper
that it demarcates an area from which China can extract resources. The
tribunal found that there was no basis for the rights that Beijing said
underpinned the line, and that even if there had been at some point,
unclos superseded those rights when China ratified it in 1996.
The tribunals decrees decimated Chinas maritime claims in the
South China Sea and handed a great victory to the Philippines in the
process. But this victory could prove a Pyrrhic one if China responds
with increased belligerence.
NO EXIT?
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Repo men: Chinese soldiers standing guard in the Spratly Islands, February 2016
STRINGER / REUTERS
China has rejected the legitimacy of the Philippines case and the
tribunals jurisdiction to hear it since Manila first brought its complaint
in January 2013. Beijing has decried the tribunals decision as illegitimate, and it will certainly not abandon its outposts in the Spratlys or
return the sand it used to manufacture them to the seabed. In fact, in
the wake of the ruling, China landed civilian aircraft on some of those
outposts, presumably to demonstrate that possession is nine-tenths of
the law.
China might now choose to flout the decision more explicitly by
deepening its de facto control of the area. It could, for example,
declare an air defense identification zone in the South China Sea, as
September/October 2016
79
Mira Rapp-Hooper
it did in the East China Sea in 2013, unsettling many of its neighbors
in Southeast Asia. It could also start to reclaim land at Scarborough
Shoal, which it wrested from the Philippines in 2012. (Former U.S.
officials have suggested that China might be preparing to do exactly
that later this year.) Chinese forces
could attempt to intercept a U.S. ship
Washington and its
or plane as it conducts a freedom-ofpartners can still avoid a
navigation operation, raising tensions
between Beijing and Washington. Or
dangerous escalation.
China could take actions that are less
dramatic but nevertheless destabilizing. It could attempt to apply new
domestic laws to the areas it controls. Or it could declare base lines, the
formal points from which states measure maritime zones, around the
Spratlys, suggesting another effort to administer the surrounding waters.
Any of those actions would be deeply worrisome for Chinas neigh
bors and would demonstrate that Beijing is uninterested in playing by
the rules of the international order. Even more troubling, however,
would be if a defiant and defeated China chose to withdraw from
unclos completely. It is possible for a country that is not a party to
the convention to observe its provisionsthe United States is the
prime example. But if China withdrew, it would almost certainly
portend Beijings rejection of the prevailing maritime order, setting
the stage for further escalation of the many disputes regarding the
South China Sea. Chinas withdrawal from the convention would
suggest not only that Beijing intends to ignore the tribunals ruling
but also that it does not want to be bound by the many other maritime
rights and provisions that unclos enshrines and that govern the free
use of the global commons.
There are good reasons for China not to take such a course. First,
although the tribunal dealt a blow to Chinas maritime claimsits rights
to water and airspace and its authority to conduct certain activities
thereit did not rule on Chinas claims to sovereignty over territory in
the South China Sea, which are beyond the scope of unclos. For that
reason, Beijing can rightly argue that its sovereignty over the contested
reefs and rocks it occupies has not been affected. It cannot legally continue
to declare military zones in the water or airspace around the reefs it
occupies, nor can it do so more than 12 nautical miles from the rocks it
controls. But if Beijing emphasizes sovereignty claims instead of maritime
ones, it could draw public attention away from its legal defeat.
80
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Satisfying as the tribunals decision may be for Manila, all parties now
have a strong stake in ensuring that the situation doesnt escalate. The
judgment sets a significant legal precedent: the principles that guided
the tribunals decision are now part of international law, and countries
must embrace and reinforce them if they want others to uphold them
in the future. The case concerned just a few of Asias many maritime
disputes. Other countries, from Japan to Vietnam, are considering cases
of their own, and the tribunals judgment must produce some positive
change if they are to pursue their own arbitrations with confidence.
And although the South China Sea disputes have deep historical roots,
they have flared up in recent years because Chinas growing military
capabilities have meaningfully improved Beijings ability to press its
claims. If China goes further by deliberately flouting the ruling or
withdrawing from unclos, it could destroy the maritime order it has
already damaged.
There are several steps that the United States and its partners can
take to reinforce the recent ruling without getting Chinas back up.
For starters, the United States and like-minded countries around the
world should continue to declare their support for the legal process,
calling on China and the Philippines to abide by it without taking a
position on the underlying sovereignty disputes. The U.S. State
September/October 2016
81
Mira Rapp-Hooper
Department should work closely but quietly with other claimants that
are considering bringing cases of their own to help them ascertain
how this ruling might affect their efforts. And the United States should
make clear that it will investigate the implications of the decision for
its own island claims.
The U.S. Department of Defense, for its part, should resume freedomof-navigation operations that reinforce the decision after a pause of
several weeks to allow tensions to cool. It should conduct those operations
without pomp or fanfare: their message should be legal rather than
military, and their audience should be Beijing.
Finally, U.S. officials should work closely with their Chinese coun
terparts, encouraging them to negotiate with the South China Seas
other claimants, particularly the Philippines, and to make progress on
a binding code of conduct with asean, a long-sought multilateral
agreement that would create a strict set of guidelines for behavior in
the South China Sea. A code of conduct would likely also freeze the
waterways political and territorial status quo, helping China reassure
its neighbors that its long-term intentions are not threatening. U.S.
officials should remind their counterparts in Beijing that these
remaining avenues to negotiation will close if China makes another
assertive move, such as beginning construction at Scarborough Shoal,
but that if it does not, there will be ample room for cooperation
between China and its neighbors and between Beijing and Washington.
The United States and China should also press ahead with the
confidence-building measures they agreed to at Junes U.S.-China
Strategic and Economic Dialogue, to reduce the risk of an accidental
clash between them. That would help each demonstrate to the other
and to the region that neither wants to see a great-power conflict over
the South China Sea or any other maritime issue and that both are
committed to acting responsibly. More generally, U.S. officials should
make clear that the arbitration decision has brought China to a legal
crossroads, but that Beijing still has reasonable options available to it.
Resolving the current showdown peacefully and legally would be in
everyones interestsincluding, and especially, Chinas.
82
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
SPONSORED SECTION
JORDAN
www.worldfocusgroup.com
JORDAN
SPONSORED SECTION
www.worldfocusgroup.com
JORDAN
SPONSORED SECTION
offer the lowest rate of 5.99% in the country. With nearly 40% of the
market share in savings, the bank can offer financing and transactions
at reasonable costs. To further leverage its edge on private banking,
the HBTF will increase its number of branches from 129 to 138 by the
end of 2016. Since 2014, customers have also been able to use mobile
banking services.
These key strengths are underpinned by skilled staff and
management, as well as the well-recognized brand name.
In addition, the bank is expanding its commercial and corporate
business as well as project finance. Ihab Saadi points out the banks
involvement in successful infrastructure projects in the past, including
CM
MY
CY
CMY
www.worldfocusgroup.com
JORDAN
SPONSORED SECTION
Port Community, the Aqaba Marine Park, the Logistic Zone and
the Southern Industrial Zone and the Airport Industrial Zone. The
contribution of the Aqaba Special Economic Zone Authority (ASEZA)
to Jordans GDP grew by 56% between 2000 and 2015. Over the past
decade, the department, headed by Chief Commissioner H.E. Nasser
Shraideh, has attracted more than $21 billion in tourism projects, $3
billion in industrial investments, $250 million in commercial real
estate, $2 billon in logistics, and $340 million in health and education.
Aqaba is part of the Golden Triangle of Jordan, along with the
desert of Wadi Rum and the ancient village of Petra (one of the
Seven Wonders of the World). Due to Jordan's regional prominence
as a peaceful and safe destination, ASEZA is promoting several
mixed-use developments and investments worth $16 billion.
The number of hotel beds will have risen from 500 in 2000 to
an estimated 8,000 by the end of 2016. ASEZA offers exclusive
incentives to SMEs and global investors and is committed to creating
sustainable development.
www.worldfocusgroup.com
www.adc.jo
www.aqabazone.com/en/
JORDAN
SPONSORED SECTION
www.worldfocusgroup.com
JORDAN
SPONSORED SECTION
CEO
Arab Potash Co.
Your gateway
to Jordan
and beyond
www.worldfocusgroup.com
September/October 2016
83
David Omand
Episodes from the 1990s and early years of this century illustrate the
first key lesson of successful counterterrorism: the importance of
understanding the nature of the threat. When intelligence agencies
misdiagnose the danger after a plot is uncovered or after an attack,
governments are less likely to invest to preempt future threats.
Throughout the 1990s, despite several warning signs, British and
U.S. intelligence agencies failed to grasp the potential significance of
the threat from Islamist terrorist groups. In 2000, the British Security
Service uncovered the first cell of Islamist bomb-makers in the
United Kingdom. But it treated the discovery as a one-off event,
since at the time it did not seem similar to other threats that the
intelligence agency had encountered. Later that year, the Security
Service arrested a Pakistani microbiologist who was seeking pathogen
samples and equipment suspected to be suitable for making biological
weapons. Once again, however, the intelligence agency viewed the
episode as an isolated incident. In fact, British and U.S. intelligence
agencies later discovered that it was part of an al Qaeda plan to
develop biological weapons. It would not be until after 9/11 that the
British intelligence and security community would grasp the potential
scale of the threat from radicalized extremists and would invest
enough resources in response.
84
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
September/October 2016
85
David Omand
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
September/October 2016
87
David Omand
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
LEADING SCHOLARS
loc.gov/kluge/fellowships/kissinger.html
The Kissinger Program is made possible by generous donations
of the friends and admirers of Dr. Henry A. Kissinger.
David Omand
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
The final and most important lesson is that countries must build
partnerships based on earned trust. On the national level, policymakers
should reexamine the relationships between police and intelligence
agencies, between external and internal security and intelligence
services, between civilian and military services, and between govern
ment agencies and the private sector, looking to build trust wherever
possible, by arranging more cross-postings, for example.
On the international level, European governments need to earn
the trust of partners inside and outside the eu to protect sensitive
intelligence that can lead to shared leads and joint operations. And
they need to establish good relationships with the U.S. technology
companies that may hold data vital to stopping future attacks. To do
so, they should negotiate bilateral agreements with the United States
that provide the necessary legal safeguards for companies to respond
to legitimate requests without breaking U.S. law. Eu governments
should also consider revising their data-retention laws. An insistence,
for privacy reasons, on short data-retention periods has hindered
prosecutions in the past.
Investing more in digital intelligence should be a priority.
Intelligence professionals understand the value of having bulk
access to Internet communications (between Syria and Europe, for
example), being able to hack the devices used by terrorists and
criminals, and using data-mining techniques to identify suspects.
In 2010, for example, British authorities foiled the plans of a group
of jihadists to bomb the London Stock Exchange by uncovering
their electronic communications. But the revelations of U.S. and
British government electronic surveillance programs by the former
National Security Agency contractor Edward Snowden have
diminished public trust in the use of such techniques. It is essential
to rebuild confidence across Europe in the use of these methods
under strict legal safeguards and with independent oversight.
Leaders should acknowledge the important role that intelligence
agencies play and defend their methods as essential to public
safety. To get smaller states on board, the larger powers, such as
the United Kingdom and France, should reach out to them to offer
support and training. The Club de Berne, a non-eu body where
the heads of the internal intelligence services of the eu countries,
Norway, and Switzerland meet regularly and oversee the Counter
September/October 2016
91
David Omand
Terrorist Group, which liaises with the eu, would be a good forum
for coordinating such efforts.
BREXIT BLUES?
The United Kingdoms vote to leave the eu, or Brexit, has introduced
great uncertainty for at least the next two years over the United
Kingdoms relationship with Europe. The United Kingdom is Europes
major intelligence power and has long benefited from its close
coordination with the United States on security and intelligence
gathering. It remains at the cutting edge of digital intelligenceit
has around 5,500 people working in this area, compared with
Frances 2,800 and Germanys 1,000. At the moment, the United
Kingdom enjoys excellent bilateral and multilateral relationships
with other European intelligence services. That should continue,
but politicians will need to show steady nerves to ensure that the
security needs of Europe as a whole are placed above the political
interests of its individual leaders.
Policymakers must be prepared to cooperate internationally through
informal networks, rather than waste time dreaming of new eu
institutions, such as a European cia or fbi. An effective international
network could develop among counterterrorism centers, for example,
especially to share threat assessments (preferably based on an agreed
set of warning levels). The various European national intelligence
coordinators, working with the U.S. director of national intelligence,
could form another such network. And the United Kingdom will
remain a major player in the Club de Berne. Intelligence and security
professionals across Europe sincerely hope that the United Kingdom
will remain fully engaged, even as they understandably regret the
wider disruption that Brexit will cause.
The eu has done much to foster police and judicial cooperation
while safeguarding fundamental rights. The common European Arrest
Warrant speeds up the extradition of suspects between eu member
states, a mechanism the United Kingdom used to return a suspected
terrorist to Italy to face trial after the second wave of attempted attacks
on London in 2005. Europol provides a valuable avenue through
which police can liaise with one another. The Schengen Information
System II allows police to share information about suspects, and the
Schengen III information-sharing arrangements provide a network
for sharing dna, fingerprints, and vehicle registration databases (the
92
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
United Kingdom had recently joined this network, but after Brexit, it
will have to negotiate a new agreement). Policymakers will now need
to put in place arrangements to ensure continued cooperation on law
enforcement once the United Kingdom withdraws from the eu.
Close British-eu cooperation should not get in the way of creating
a wider network of states, including the United Kingdom, to improve
intelligence gathering on terrorist and criminal organizations within
and outside Europes borders. But it will take good statesmanship on
all sides to navigate the tough negotiations over the United Kingdoms
new relationship with the eu, while creating more powerful, mutually
beneficial networks for intelligence sharing and security cooperation
across Europe and beyond.
European countries were slow to respond to the rise of isis. But
they now have the opportunity to override old prejudices, reexamine
their counterterrorism strategies, and invest in modern intelligence
methods. Even those states that justifiably pride themselves on their
police and their ability to access and analyze intelligence can learn
from recent events.
Above all, the goal should be to maintain normalityand to
increase the ability to swiftly restore it when necessary. This will
deprive terrorists of what they seek most: to stoke public fear and
disrupt the everyday life of free and democratic societies. They must
not be allowed to succeed.
September/October 2016
93
94
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
In the years after World War II, numerous European leaders made a
convincing argument that only through unity could the continent es
cape its bloody past and guarantee prosperity. Accordingly, in 1951,
Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and West Ger
September/October 2016
95
Jakub Grygiel
many created the European Coal and Steel Community. Over the next
several decades, that organization morphed into the European Eco
nomic Community and, eventually, the European Union, and its
membership grew from six countries to 28. Along the way, as the fear
of war receded, European leaders began to talk about integration not
merely as a force for peace but also as a way to allow Europe to stand
alongside China, Russia, and the United States as a great power.
The eus boosters argued that the benefits of membershipan inte
grated market, shared borders, and a transnational legal systemwere
self-evident. By this logic, expanding the
eastward wouldnt require force
A Europe of nation-states union
or political coercion; it would simply
would be preferable to the take patience, since nonmember states
disjointed, ineffectual EU would soon recognize the upsides of
membership and join as soon as they
of today.
could. And for many years, this logic
held, as central and eastern European
countries raced to join the union after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Eight countriesthe Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia,
Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, and Sloveniabecame members in 2004;
Bulgaria and Romania followed in 2007.
Then came the Ukraine crisis. In 2014, the Ukrainian people took to
the streets and overthrew their corrupt president, Viktor Yanukovych,
after he abruptly canceled a new economic deal with the eu. Immediately
afterward, Russia invaded and annexed Crimea, and it soon sent
soldiers and artillery into eastern Ukraine, too. The eus leaders had
hoped that economic inducements would inevitably increase the unions
membership and bring peace and prosperity to an ever-larger public.
But that dream proved no match for Russias tanks and so-called little
green men.
Moscows gambit was not, on its own, enough to cripple the eu.
But soon, another crisis hit, and this one nearly pushed the union to
its breaking point. In 2015, more than a million refugeesnearly half
of them fleeing the civil war in Syriaentered Europe, and since
then, many more have followed. Early on, several countries, especially
Germany and Sweden, proved especially welcoming, and leaders in
those states angrily criticized those of their neighbors that tried to
keep the migrants out. Last year, after Hungary built a razor-wire
fence along its border with Croatia, German Chancellor Angela
96
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
The eus architects created a head without a body: they built a unified
political and administrative bureaucracy but not a united European
nation. The eu aspired to transcend nation-states, but its fatal flaw
has been its consistent failure to recognize the persistence of national
differences and the importance of addressing threats on its frontiers.
One consequence of this oversight has been the rise of political
parties that aim to restore national autonomy, often by appealing to
far-right, populist, and sometimes xenophobic sentiments. In 2014,
September/October 2016
97
Jakub Grygiel
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
September/October 2016
99
Jakub Grygiel
Building
Latin Americas
Logistics Platform
The
much
awaited
Telecoms
and
Broadcasting Reform was followed by the
announcement of significant budget cuts to the
2013-18 National Infrastructure Program in
early 2015. Today Mexican infrastructure projects
are benefiting from public-private partnerships
(PPPs) as the Aztec nation finds formulas to fund
its ambitious infrastructure conduit in line with
market ailments. Gerardo Ruiz Esparza, Mexicos
Minister of Communications and Transport,
shares with us how this administration is further
connecting Mexico to the world.
President Peas speech projected
Mexico as the Logistics Platform of Latin
America. Strides taken to this end and
impact achieved.
From the start our priority has been to
transform Mexico into a leading logistics platform
with high added value as part of the National
Infrastructure Plan 2013-18 aimed at providing
the infrastructure and modern logistic platforms
that will unclench added value activities and
promote balanced regional development.
To achieve that we have built and modernized
more roads, rural and feeder roads as well as
drawdowns and bridges that will reinforce the
trunk road network to the longitudinal runners
that link the North to the South, the Pacific
Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico. Additionally we
are developing infrastructure that will be linked
to the other transport networks such as rail,
ports and airports that will provide value to the
supply chain and will purvey global markets with
multimodal logistic platforms.
In mass transport systems we have boosted
projects that aim to improve transfer times
to reduce time/person and environmental
costs, e.g. passenger trains which are efficient
environmental alternatives and they facilitate
transfers between cities.We are also modernizing
and expanding maritime terminals so they offer
the required conditions to enable ports to be
more competitive in line with fomenting tourism
and foreign trade.
The Mexico City New International
Airport (NAICM) is a new greenfield
airport being built in the city of Mexico,
Sponsored Section
MEXICOS MUSCLE
REVEALING
THE STRENGTH
in partnership with
Sponsored Section
razil has rarely had it so bad. The countrys economy has col
lapsed: since 2013, its unemployment rate has nearly doubled, to
more than 11 percent, and last year its gdp shrank by 3.8 per
cent, the largest contraction in a quarter century. Petrobras, Brazils
semipublic oil giant, has lost around 85 percent of its value since 2008,
thanks to declining commodity prices and its role in a massive corruption
scandal. The Zika virus has infected thousands of Brazilians, exposing
the frailty of the countrys health system. And despite the billions of
dollars Braslia poured into the 2014 World Cup and this years Olympic
Games, those events have done little to improve the national mood
or upgrade the countrys urban infrastructure. Meanwhile, many of
Brazils long-standing problems have proved stubbornly persistent:
half of all Brazilians still lack access to basic sanitation, 35 million of
them lack access to clean water, and in 2014, the country suffered
nearly 60,000 homicides.
But Brazils biggest problems today are political. Things first came
to a boil in the summer of 2013, when the police clashed with students
protesting bus and subway fare hikes in So Paulo. Within days, some
1.5 million people took to the streets of Brazils big cities to protest a
wider set of problems, including the governments wasteful spending
(to the tune of some $3.6 billion) on the construction and refurbishment
of a dozen stadiums for the World Cup. In the months that followed,
when Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff appeared on television to
soothe the unrest, Brazilians across the country drowned out her voice
by rattling pots and pans from their balconies. In October 2014, after
EDUARDO MELLO is a Ph.D. candidate at the London School of Economics. Follow him on
Twitter @ejamello.
MATIAS SPEKTOR is Associate Professor of International Relations at Fundao Getulio
Vargas, in Brazil. Follow him on Twitter @MatiasSpektor.
102 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Game over: Dilma Rousseff after being suspended by the Senate, Braslia, June 2016
FOCUS ON
bookstore.imf.org/fa916
I NT E RNATIONA L M O N ETA RY F UN D
ADVANCING A
MODERN VISION
OF SECURITY.
The state of Brazilian politics has not always seemed so bleak. From
1995 to 2010, two social democratic presidents, Fernando Henrique
Cardoso and Lula, managed to cut inflation, grow the economy, and lift
millions of people out of poverty. But even though both leaders brought
about a good deal of reform, neither set out to transform Brazilian
politics. Rather than tackle the systems structural problems, Cardoso
and Lula cleverly worked around them, enacting policies that benefited
most Brazilians while allowing the wheels of the patronage system to
turn undisturbed. For a time, this tactic worked well, since both Cardoso
and Lula were careful to insulate their pet economic and social policies
from pressure from interest groups and their representatives in Congress.
In order to deal with Brazils corrupt and inefficient public healthcare system, for example, Cardoso expanded the parallel Family Health
Strategy, sending doctors into poor neighborhoods to provide preventive
care and reduce the pressure on Brazils public hospitals. For his part,
Lula launched Bolsa Famlia, a conditional
program that cut poverty in
The chaos roiling Brazil is cash-transfer
Brazil by 28 percent and cost a mere 0.8
the product of flawed
percent of the countrys gdp. The program
was so cheap, and its benefits so obvious, that
political engineering.
it eventually won widespread public support
even from Brazils conservatives, who initially opposed it. Both Cardoso
and Lula also protected Brazils Central Bank and Finance Ministry
from political pressure, giving them a free hand to pursue policies
that helped the economy stabilize and then grow.
Cardoso and Lula weathered their fair share of corruption scandals,
but their public-oriented policies and the strong economic growth
the country enjoyed during their tenures convinced voters to look the
other way. At their peak, these presidents were popular enough that
lawmakers found it hard to openly oppose them or to extract fat
concessions from them in exchange for their support. But Lula and
Cardoso also benefited from the fact that when they entered office,
Brazil was, by many measures, in far worse shape than it is today. That
meant there was a lot of low-hanging fruit to be picked, and both
leaders could bring about major improvements by making relatively
small changes to the existing system. As things improved and Brazilians
became more demanding of their politicians, new gains proved harder
and harder to engineeras Rousseff learned the hard way when she
became president in 2011.
Having never held elected office before, Rousseff had a difficult
time navigating the give-and-take of Brazilian coalition building. She
also had to weather the difficult aftermath of the global financial crisis
and preside over an economy that was shrinking, due in part to falling
commodity prices. Wedded to mercantilist and interventionist economic
theories, Rousseff tried to stimulate Brazils sagging economy by
increasing public spending. But this turned out to be a bad bet, since
the flood of cash encouraged members of Congress to chase more
pork and kickbacks. The combustible mix of rising unemployment,
public frustration, and growing scandal that resulted would eventually
seal her fate.
108 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
110 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Americas Brewing
Debt Crisis
What Dodd-Frank Didnt Fix
Robert Litan
September/October 2016
111
Robert Litan
did not go far enough. He called for the government to break up the
largest U.S. banks and reinstate Glass-Steagall, the 1933 act that separated
commercial from investment banking, until Congress repealed it in 1999.
Republicans, meanwhile, including the presidential candidate Donald
Trump, believe Dodd-Frank went too far, and Republican legislators
have sought to repeal it at every opportunity, arguing that its regula
tions are crippling U.S. banks and stifling growth.
Both criticisms distract from the real problem with the act, which is
that it left some key problems unaddressed. In dealing with reckless
lending and excess leverage, it misses one of the most important causes
of the crisis: runnable liabilities, or short-term debt that the govern
ment does not insure. The U.S. financial sector holds trillions of dollars
of such debt, including uninsured bank deposits and the short-term
liabilities of other financial institutions, such as overnight loans. What
makes this kind of debt so dangerous is that during a crisis, short-term
lenders, unlike long-term ones, can demand their money back imme
diately, leaving borrowers unable to pay all their creditors quickly. The
financial sector stops lending money, credit dries up for consumers and
businesses, and the economy grinds to a halt. This is what happened in
2007 and 2008, when massive runs on short-term debt spread panic
throughout the financial sector and helped trigger the Great Recession.
Although short-term debt poses one of the greatest threats to the
financial stability of the United States, Dodd-Frank has done little to
mitigate it. Fortunately, several experts have proposed ambitious ways
of dealing with the problem, including expanding federal insurance of
bank deposits, allowing the Federal Reserve to lend money to more
firms in the case of a panic, and banning unregulated financial institu
tions from issuing runnable liabilities. These are good ideas, and if
Congress passed any of them into law, the odds of a future financial
crisis would be significantly lowered.
AFTER DODD-FRANK
The Dodd-Frank Act set out to solve one of the central problems with
the U.S. financial system: that some banks, such as Citigroup and J.P.
Morgan, were too big to fail. When those banks were faced with
collapse, the government had to come to the rescue, or else risk allow
ing the whole economy to go down with them.
Dodd-Frank was supposed to solve this problem in two ways. First,
the act raised the minimum capital requirements for all banks and
112 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Robert Litan
prevent bank runs, since people no longer worried that they might
lose all their savings if their bank collapsed.
Then, in 2008, as the financial crisis spread panic throughout the
economy, Congress raised the amount of the deposits that the fdic
would insure from $100,000 to $250,000, covering roughly half of the
$12 trillion that the country now holds in bank deposits. Bank runs
have thus become even less likely, although not impossible.
But for other financial institutions, for which the government has
not stepped in to provide insurance, the risk of runs remains high.
Shadow banks are financial institutions that are similar to banks, in
that they also issue very short-term
but are not regulated as such.
Massive runs on short-term liabilities,
These include investment banks, moneydebt helped trigger the
market mutual funds (a low-risk, lowyield investment option), and various
Great Recession.
financial firms. These shadow banks and
other issuers of short-term debt collectively account for roughly
$16 trillion in short-term debt (dwarfing the $6 trillion of insured
bank deposits), and no equivalent of the fdic exists to prevent the
holders of these instruments from running on the institutions that
carry this debt. Meanwhile, even in banks, deposits above $250,000
are still at risk of a run, as are Eurodollar deposits (dollar-denominated
accounts in foreign banks), which the fdic does not protect.
In the years leading up to the financial crisis, shadow banks relied
increasingly on runnable debt. Until the mid-1990s, such debt was
equivalent to around 40 percent of U.S. gdp, but by 2008, the figure
had reached 80 percent. This debt carried lower interest rates than
longer-term debt and was thus a cheaper source of funding. It took a
number of forms, including commercial paper, a kind of short-term
debt issued by corporations; money-market mutual funds; and
repurchase agreements, or repos, a type of short-term loan that allows
a borrower to sell a bond and promise to buy it back within a few days.
In a crisis, lenders could run on all these financial instruments.
In 2008, they did. The investment banks Bear Stearns and Lehman
Brothers experienced runs on their short-term debt. Investors also
began to flee money-market mutual funds, which started to collapse;
the Treasury Department had to step in and issue an unprecedented
blanket guarantee of all of them. And federal regulators, afraid that
there would be a run on bank deposits above $250,000, merged failing
114 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
banks with stronger ones and temporarily guaranteed all accounts. All
of this happened in just six months, and mostly in September 2008.
PROBLEM SOLVED?
F R A N K L I N D. R O O S E V E LT L I B R A R Y
Robert Litan
have assigned to their assets, and many mistrust banks that claim to
have enough capital. Depositors with more than $250,000 may still
run on their bank at the first hint of trouble.
Regulators have also forced banks and other financial institutions
to hold more liquid assets, which they can use to pay back depositors
who want their money back immediately. But even this measure
may not do enough to meet the demands of creditors in a full-scale
panic, since no bank can have all its assets in liquid form and still
turn a profit.
As inadequate as the existing measures are, however, the popular
ideas for bolder reform would do little more to reduce the risk of a run
by uninsured depositors or short-term debt holders. Consider Sanders
proposal to break up the too big to fail banks. Turning one $2-trillionasset bank into four or five smaller banks would not make uninsured
depositors any less likely to withdraw their money if one of the smaller
banks faced difficulties, since their large deposits would still be unin
sured. Such depositors would rationally conclude that if one of the
smaller banks was in trouble, theirs might also be, potentially triggering
a run. Nor would reinstating Glass-Steagall prevent runs if panic
caught on, because separating commercial from investment banking
would do nothing to stop uninsured depositors from running on com
mercial banks or repo lenders from refusing to roll over their loans to
the investment banks.
Republican proposals, meanwhile, could exacerbate the risks posed
by short-term debt. Conservative academics at Stanford Universitys
Hoover Institution, for example, have suggested designating a special
district court to expedite bankruptcy cases. But making it easier for a
financial firm to declare bankruptcy could make it more likely that
lenders would lose their money if the firm collapsed, which might make
them quicker to pull their money out. The special bankruptcy court
could lessen this risk if it asked the Federal Reserve to act as the lender
of last resort for short-term creditors to prevent them from panicking,
but this would offer little improvement over the current system.
FIXING FINANCE
Yet the problem of runnable debt has solutions. One idea comes from
Morgan Ricks, a former official in the Obama administrations Treasury
Department. In his new book, The Money Problem, Ricks argues that
the government should drop the pretense that its insurance extends
116 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
ISIS
A History
Fawaz A. Gerges
Cloth $27.95
Confronting
Political Islam
Six Lessons from
the Wests Past
John M. Owen IV
Paper $22.95
Daniel A. Bell
Paper $19.95
Powerplay
The Origins of the
American Alliance
System in Asia
Victor D. Cha
Cloth $35.00
Dictators
and Democrats
Masses, Elites,
and Regime Change
Stephan Haggard &
Robert R. Kaufman
Paper $29.95
Cloth $99.50
International Relations
From seminars to the Security Council,
NYUs International Relations Program has it all.
M.A. in International Relations at the Graduate School of Arts and Science (GSAS). Since 1886
NYUs Graduate School has prepared generations of global leaders. The Program in International
Relations continues this tradition offering a rigorous, multidisciplinary study of contemporary
international affairs. Drawing on NYU scholars from GSAS, Arthur L. Carter Journalism Institute,
School of Law, Stern School of Business, and Wagner Graduate School of Public Service, students
in the M.A. program have access to a range of degree options with various technical and regional
specializations. M.A. students also have the opportunity to study at NYUs Washington, DC center
and other locations in NYUs expansive global network.
ir.as.nyu.edu
New from Duke University Press
From Washington to Moscow
LOUIS SELL
paper, $27.95
September/October 2016
117
Robert Litan
Robert Litan
120 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
SPONSORED SECTION
SUDAN
Photo: shutterstock
Sudan is a vast country where lucrative business opportunities are growing by the day.
With new investment laws in place, the scope is tremendous. Read on to find out more.
Modern, dynamic and vibrant are not the words usually associated
with Sudan yet this is the reality in a country of entrepreneurs
taking the initiative to create global investment opportunities,
despite inner strife and regional conflict.
As it prays for US sanctions to be liftedPresident Obama
has been negotiating with Sudan officials through a special envoy
since 2013this determined country, having lost a great deal
of its oil industry with the cessation of South Sudan, is moving
forward with reforms and initiatives to diversify the economy.
Reforms have already led to massive investment surges in the raft
of opportunities on the table.
While there are lucrative openings growing in infrastructure,
mining, agriculture, tourism and renewable energies, the Sudanese
government is also investing in its people; more children are
entering primary education than ever before, and GDP per
capita has grown from $350 in 2000 to almost $2,000 today.
Khartoum, the countrys affluent capital, is a shining jewel of a
city, with coffee shops, office blocks and resplendent shopping
malls bustling against a backdrop of historic monuments and the
confluence of the White Nile.
Sudan has also recently been named by the World Bank as one
of the easiest places to start a business in Africa. As Minister of
www.worldfocusgroup.com
SUDAN
SPONSORED SECTION
www.worldfocusgroup.com
SUDAN
SPONSORED SECTION
www.worldfocusgroup.com
SUDAN
SPONSORED SECTION
www.worldfocusgroup.com
SUDAN
SPONSORED SECTION
is still exporting South Sudans oil today.
Jalal Eldin M. A. Shelia, General Manager says: Sea Ports Corp.
encourages exports in this area, especially iron, minerals and
agriculture products. Because of their locations, our ports benefit
from easy access to roads and railways between western and eastern
worldwide markets, as well as inland and transit countries. They
also provide links to the Northern and Western African countries.
The ports export livestock, liquefied petroleum gas, and bitumen.
Sea Ports Corp. seeks to make Port Sudan a major global
shipping and transshipment hub. A look at the countrys
development shows that expanding transshipment activity is
now an important growth strategy. We are emphasizing the
development of our transshipment business, as this will form the
basis for port expansion and infrastructure upgrades.
The company seeks to attract new transshipment cargoes in
Oceania, Africa, Europe, and South America where they experience
a strong growth potential of logistics. Sudans strategic geographical
location in North East Africa means it can serve as a bridge between
the Arab and African regions. We are therefore repositioning
ourselves as a transshipment hub for the region. Sea Ports Corp. sees
its goals of diversifying the economy, bringing in more commerce,
and having a better gateway for exports.
An Ever-Growing Sector.
Infrastructural upgrades will do much to help the agricultural
sector, the backbone of the Sudanese economy. It represents 40%
of the GDP and employs around 80% of the populationa large
part of which are subsistence farmersand plays a major role in
securing food security for the East African region.
Resources are not the problemthe country is the worlds
number one producer of Arabic gum and a key manufacturer
of sugar and animal feed. It also has livestock, and a vast array
Muslih Ahmed El
Sanosi
Ag. General Manager
Hashim Hago Group
stopped.
Hashim Hago Group also operates in the field of construction
and roads, conducting many projects with the National Highway
Authority in order to rehabiliate the national road network. We
are more than ready to work hand in hand with foreign investors.
We have many potential projects that need partnerships or direct
finance.
HHG is most interested in finding financing for projects in edible
oils processing, plastics, mining, and agricultural services. It wants
to develop these projects and enable mechanisms that can trigger a
self-reinforcing virtuous cycle. In order to make this vision a reality,
the company needs access to financing and in exchange we will
provide the equipment and expertise.
www.worldfocusgroup.com
SUDAN
SPONSORED SECTION
www.worldfocusgroup.com
SPONSORED SECTION
adversity, however, we see the positive
side of things and have been encouraged
to be more creative.
Born from a highly successful
collaboration
between
Sudanese
government and Cominor, a Canadian
French company, in 1991, the Ariab
Mining has developed excellent skills
and competences. These are not only Kamal Hassan Alhaj
being implemented in Sudan, but other Rahma
countries that former employees have General Manager
Sudamin
gone on to work in.
More recently, the shareholding was restructured to 95% for the
Sudan government and 5% for the Industrial Development Bank.
Our main mission is to deliver production at optimal cost;
this makes us one of the companies with lowest operational
costs in the region, the Ariab chief says. We want to lead the
mining industry in Sudan and Africa, by setting a benchmark
in operational excellence, enhancing the efficiency and level of
extraction, adopting latest technologies, responsibly managing
the HSSE and environmental issues, attracting and retaining
diversified talent and contributing to the development of local
communities.
Sudamin Assists Investors
Established in 2012, Sudamin it a vital force in the mining sector,
providing ancillary services in all areas to most of the mining
companies in Sudan so help them reach their targets successfully.
Its field of expertise includes: logistics, camping sites, civil
works, catering, moving the earth, water supplies (which involves
making long pipelines and pumping stations, drilling wells and
linking them to company facilities, and providing tankers),
maintenance services, and providing limousines and transport.
SUDAN
Some 80% of this production comes
from artisan miningpeople working
with their bare hands, rather than
machinery.
More than 100 companies are here to
invest into the gold sector, and many of
them are in the state of exploration, while
15 of the 100 companies are in the actual
Nasr Eldin Elhussein
state of production.
General Manager
Sudamin has made various joint
Ariab Mining Company
ventures with many international
companies and is keen to make more in
the next five years, especially in the field of creative laboratories,
the GM says: We have the know-how and the financial capital,
but we need foreign technology. We can assist any investor
who is eager to invest in Sudan. Creative laboratories are crucial
for the development of Sudamin as analyzing samples takes far
too long at the moment.
We have to take our samples to international laboratories. For
that reason we plan to attract big companies who are specialized
in the field of laboratories. Future investments would be very
profitable for these companies as the return rate is high. Also
further investment in the field of drilling is needed, and especially
foreign machinery is something we try to attract. Right now is a
good time for these potential companies to invest.
www.worldfocusgroup.com
SUDAN
SPONSORED SECTION
www.worldfocusgroup.com
Mexicos Infrastructure
Needs and Opportunities
October 11, 2016 | New York
: Mexicos Infrastructure Needs and Opportunities
is a full-day, multi-faceted examination of Mexicos overhaul of its
infrastructure policy, featuring high ranking viewpoints on mega
projects, investment, ecological impact and the legacy of the
Pea Nieto administration.
Venue:
Speakers Include:
Topics Include:
Mexico as a Global Logistics Platform
Mexico City's New Airport
Multimodal System
Telecommunications Reform
Financial Instruments of the Federal
Administration: PPPS & Investment
Alternatives
Time:
8:15AM- 6:00PM
Questions:
Contact FALive@cfr.org
Yuriria Mascott
Deputy Secretary for Transport, Mexico
Ral Murrieta
Deputy Secretary for
Infrastructure, Mexico
Guillermo Ruiz de Teresa
General Coordinator of
Ports and Merchant Navy, Mexico
Federico Patio
General Director, GACM, Mexico City's
Airport Group
Roberto Calvet
General Director, Mexico AECOM
t has been more than seven years since U.S. President Barack Obama
issued Executive Order 13491, banning the U.S. governments use
of torture. Obamas directive was a powerful rebuke to the Bush
administration, which had, in the years after the 9/11 attacks, authorized
the cia and the U.S. military to use enhanced interrogation tech
niques in questioning suspected terrorists. Some detainees were shackled
in painful positions, locked in boxes the size of coffins, kept awake for over
100 hours at a time, and forced to inhale water in a process known as water
boarding. Interrogators sometimes went far beyond what Washington
had authorized, sodomizing detainees with blunt objects, threatening
to sexually abuse their family members, and, on at least one occasion,
freezing a suspect to death by chaining him to an ice-cold floor overnight.
By the time Obama came to office, the cia had apparently abandoned
the most coercive forms of torture. Obama sought to ensure that the
United States had truly turned the page. Today, however, many Americans
are considering electing a president who wants to bring such abuses back.
During a February debate among the Republican presidential candidates,
Donald Trump vowed to reinstate torture, including treatment that
would be a hell of a lot worse than waterboarding. Asked in a subsequent
talk show if he stood by his proposal, Trump replied, It wouldnt bother
DOUGLAS A. JOHNSON is Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at the
John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.
ALBERTO MORA is a Senior Fellow at the Carr Center. From 2001 to 2006, he served as
General Counsel of the Department of the Navy.
AVERELL SCHMIDT is a Fellow at the Carr Center.
me even a little bit. And this is hardly a fringe view: according to a 2014
Washington Postabc News poll, a majority of Americans now think that
the cias use of torture was justified.
In 2014, the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence released
a series of reports as part of a five-year investigation into the cias
detention and interrogation program. The committees Democratic
majority, joined by the Republican senator Susan Collins, argued that
the use of torture had not produced unique intelligence. The Republican
minority claimed that it had. Meanwhile, several former senior cia
officials launched a website, cia Saved Lives, on which they declared
that the agencys interrogation program had disrupted terrorist plots
and helped the United States find and capture al Qaeda leaders.
Despite their disagreements, all these perspectives share one key
assumption: that whether the torture was good or bad depends on
whether or not it workedthat is, whether it produced lifesaving
results. Leaving aside the very real human and legal consequences of
torture, a truly comprehensive assessment would also explore the policys
broader implications, including how it shaped the trajectory of the socalled war on terror, altered the relationship between the United States
and its allies, and affected Washingtons pursuit of other key goals, such
as the promotion of democracy and human rights abroad. To assess the
overall effect of torture on U.S. national security, one should consider
not only its supposed tactical benefits but also its strategic impact.
Our team of researchers at the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy
at the Harvard Kennedy School has begun the first such review, and
weve found that Washingtons use of torture greatly damaged national
security. It incited extremism in the Middle East, hindered cooperation
with U.S. allies, exposed American officials to legal repercussions,
undermined U.S. diplomacy, and offered a convenient justification
for other governments to commit human rights abuses. The takeaway
is clear: reinstating torture would be a costly mistake.
THE GREATEST RECRUITING TOOL
In 2004, reports surfaced that U.S. soldiers had tortured and humiliated
prisoners at Abu Ghraib, a prison 20 miles west of Baghdad that held as
many as 3,800 detainees. Our preliminary analysis has found that these
revelations, alongside allegations of torture at the U.S. detention center
in Guantnamo Bay, Cuba, spurred foreign extremists to join insurgents
in Afghanistan and Iraq, contributing to the violence in both places.
122 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
STRINGER / REUTERS
donethat it was proof [that] everything they thought bad about the
Americans was true. Without much cooperation from local populations,
coalition forces found it difficult to develop the kind of intelligence
sources necessary to identify and target insurgents.
A PARIAH STATE
At the same time that the United States use of torture was inspiring
extremists in the Middle East, it was also undermining counterterror
ism cooperation between Washington and its allies. Consider the case
of the Netherlands. According to U.S. State Department cables from
2003, the Dutch armys leadership wanted to contribute troops to the
U.S.-led effort in Afghanistan. But intense public opposition to
torture led Dutch political leaders to fear they would face domestic
backlash if their army helped apprehend al Qaeda or Taliban members
who then ended up at Guantnamo Bay. These concerns helped delay
parliamentary approval for the deployment of Dutch troops until
early 2006. Speaking before the Dutch legislature in November 2005,
Foreign Minister Bernard Bot warned that if Washington was not
forthcoming about its torture policies, the Dutch might not deploy
troops to Afghanistan. It was only after the United States provided
additional assurances concerning the treatment of Afghan prisoners
that the Dutch parliament voted to deploy troops.
Similar concerns impeded cooperation among the coalition forces. In
2005, a U.S. military attorney told one of us (Alberto Mora, then general
counsel to the U.S. Navy) that the British army had captured an enemy
combatant in Basra, Iraq, but released him because it did not have
adequate detention facilities and did not trust U.S. or Iraqi forces to
treat him humanely (aiding and abetting torture is a crime under British
law). Later, in 2005, Australian, British, Canadian, and New Zealand
military lawyers approached Mora at a military conference sponsored by
U.S. Pacific Command in Singapore and advised him that their countries
cooperation with the United States across the range of military,
intelligence, and law enforcement activities in the war on terror would
continue to decline so long as Washington persisted in using torture.
The problems went far beyond Afghanistan and Iraq. The Finnish
parliament delayed ratifying a U.S.-eu treaty on extradition and legal
cooperation from late 2005 until 2007 over concerns that the United
States use of torture and extraordinary renditionthe governmentsponsored practice of abducting and transporting terrorist suspects from
Egyptian human rights groups found that Egyptian police had adopted
tactics of sexual humiliation similar to those the United States had used.
Gambia provides another case in point. In 2002, the Gambian govern
ment helped U.S. officials extraordinarily render two suspected terrorists,
Bisher al-Rawi and Jamil el-Banna, to a secret cia prison in Afghanistan.
Four years later, in the aftermath of an alleged coup attempt, the Gambian
government arrested at least 28 people, detaining them in secret prisons
and subjecting some to torture. In July 2006, according to leaked State
Department cables, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, then the U.S. deputy
assistant secretary for African affairs, met with Belinda Bidwell, Speaker
of the Gambian National Assembly, and raised objections to Gambias
human rights record. Bidwell responded that the world is different since
9/11 and al Qaeda, and when it comes to matters of national security and
the safety of the population, extraordinary measures must occasionally be
taken. She then compared those detained in Gambia to the suspects held
at Guantnamo Bay, pointing out, according to the cable, that such things
even happen in developed countries.
U.S. interrogation policies also provided an easy pretext for states to
disregard multilateral institutions that safeguard human rights, such as
the un. Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir cited U.S. behavior in
justifying his refusal to allow un peacekeepers into Darfur in 2006:
We dont want another Abu Ghraib in Darfur; we dont want our
country to go to Guantnamo, he said. According to European diplomats,
the United States refusal to grant un special rapporteurs full access to
Guantnamo strengthened the hand of other countries that sought to
deny them access as well.
U.S. policies have also allowed chronic human rights abusers, such as
China, Cuba, Iran, and North Korea, to dismiss Western condemnations
as hypocritical. After the Senate released its torture reports in 2014, for
example, Chinas state news agency, Xinhua, ran a story headlined How
long can the US pretend to be a human rights champion? In 2006,
when U.S. officials expressed concern over a lack of accountability for
Hindu-Muslim riots in the Indian state of Gujarat four years prior,
Narendra Modi, then the states chief minister, fired back that the United
States was guilty of horrific human rights violations and thus had no
moral basis to speak on such matters.
In December 2007, then U.S. Republican Senator Arlen Specter
and then Democratic Representative Patrick Kennedy visited Damascus
to meet with Syrias president, Bashar al-Assad, and its foreign minister,
130 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
In the years since the details of the cias rendition, detention, and
interrogation program became public, the agency has vigorously
defended its conduct. In its response to the Senates torture reports,
the cia claimed that information obtained from cia interrogations
produced unique intelligence that helped the [United States] disrupt
plots, capture terrorists, better understand the enemy, prevent another
mass casualty attack, and save lives. At the same time, however, the
cia took no position on the question of whether intelligence obtained
from detainees subjected to enhanced interrogation techniques could
have been obtained through other means or from other individuals. . . .
The answer to this question is, and will remain, unknowable.
By insisting on this uncertainty, the cia has obscured the long-standing
consensus among interrogation professionals that rapport-building
methods are both more humane and more effective, even when dealing
with hardened terrorists. This was the experience of former fbi Special
Agent Ali Soufan, who successfully used such methods to interrogate
the suspected terrorist Zubaydah in Thailand before Zubaydah entered
cia custody. These methods are also a chief recommendation of two
multiyear studies by the Intelligence Science Board. This emphasis on
uncertainty is also a distraction; it draws attention to the tactical effi
cacy of torture, rather than to its strategic consequences, and places the
burden of proof on those who oppose torture, rather than on those who
advocate breaking U.S. and international law.
And even if torture may have sometimes produced helpful intelligence,
it also led U.S. policymakers astray. In November 2001, Pakistani
authorities captured Ibn al-Shaykh al-Libi, a suspected leader of an
132 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
LISA VISCIDI is Director of the Energy, Climate Change, and Extractive Industries
Program at the Inter-American Dialogue.
Lisa Viscidi
Venezuelas oil production has been steadily declining for years, and
its exports are now at historic lows. In recent months, output has
begun to drop precipitously. Multiple sources have reported record
declines in production this year: according to the International Energy
Agency, output fell by 190,000 barrels per day between January and
June. As Venezuelas aging fields produce less light oil, the country
has become increasingly dependent on fields producing heavy, less
valuable grades of oil and has been forced to import light crude, which
it needs to mix with its heavier output in order to make it transportable
through pipelines and able to reach the market.
These problems stem not just from the drop in global oil prices but
also from flawed policies. For years, the Venezuelan government has
relied on the state oil company, Petrleos de Venezuela (pdvsa), to
finance social programs, such as free housing and health care, which
has strained the companys finances. In 2014, pdvsa spent $26 billion
on social programs, more than double its $12 billion profit. In 2015, as
the effects of the sustained oil-price collapse began to take hold, social
134 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
spending fell along with oil export revenue but still exceeded pdvsas
profits by $5.8 billion, according to Venezuelas oil ministry. Every year
for the past decade, except for 2009 and 2010, pdvsa has spent more
on social programs than on exploration and production.
Making matters worse is a government policy that has frozen do
mestic gasoline prices at about one cent per liter for almost two dec
ades, costing pdvsa billions every year. The lower oil price has forced
the company to operate some fields at a loss, contributing to a critical
lack of cash flow, according to multiple Venezuelan sources and news
reports, and pdvsa is reportedly not investing in basic maintenance
of its equipment and facilities, such as pipelines and refineries. In a
recent sign of pdvsas weakness, four tankers destined for Venezuela
and carrying more than two million barrels of U.S. light crude were
held up at sea for a number of weeks beginning in May, unable to
unload at a Caribbean terminal. According to Reuters, the supplier,
bp, had halted the delivery because Venezuela had not paid for the
cargo. In late June, bp released one shipment after receiving a partial
payment, but the other three remain at sea.
Having run up massive debts during a global oil boom that lasted
from 2010 to 2014, both the Venezuelan government and pdvsa now
face challenging payment schedules, with combined payments due in
the fourth quarter of this year totaling $4.3 billion. The country will
Lisa Viscidi
not be out of the woods in 2017, either: a $7.3 billion payment will be
due in the second quarter, according to an analysis published by the
investment bank hsbc. The cash-strapped government has been issu
ing bonds through the oil company to
obtain new loans at lower interest rates,
Venezuelas state oil
but pdvsa has run out of money to pay
company routinely spends its debts. Venezuela is also struggling
to pay back billions of dollars in oilmore on social programs
backed loans from China that have
than on exploration and
helped keep it afloat for the past decade.
production.
Although China has already extended
the repayment deadline for some of
those loans, Maduro is seeking additional flexibility. The Chinese
government has yet to respond to his request.
With less cash to repay these mounting debts, both the Venezuelan
government and pdvsa are at risk of defaulting, although the state
appears determined to make its payments this year by aggressively
drawing down its foreign reserves, delaying vital investments in the
energy industry, and cutting back on importseven as warehouses
and store shelves sit empty. If pdvsa defaults, it will not be able to
borrow, and unpaid creditors could seize its global assets, including
fuel shipments, tankers, and refineries abroad. The companys ability
to sell oil to the United States, its largest export market, would be
restricted because bondholders could take possession of shipments in
lieu of payment. And Venezuela would struggle to sell leftover oil to
other buyers because, in an already oversupplied global crude market,
other exporters are fiercely protecting their existing market shares by
pumping as much oil as possible and offering discounts to buyers.
As pdvsa struggles to maintain its dominant role in the countrys
oil industry, private players are increasingly reluctant to fill the gap.
The state company has held majority stakes in most oil projects since
the industry was nationalized under Chvez in 2007. Pdvsa is not
making payments to its private partners or suppliers, focusing instead
on meeting its operating expenses in order to simply stay afloat.
Controls on foreign exchange in the country also pose a major obstacle
to foreign operators. Although the unofficial exchange rate has risen
to more than 1,000 Venezuelan bolivars per U.S. dollar, the government
forces international oil companies to adhere to the absurdly low official
rate of ten bolivars per dollar for some of their oil sales. In Venezuela,
136 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Lisa Viscidi
Lisa Viscidi
140 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
AK H TAR S O O M RO / R E U T E R S
142
155
162
Recent Books
165
191
142 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Malise Ruthven
ForeignAairs.com/newsletters
145
Malise Ruthven
Malise Ruthven
Mexicos
Transformative
Urban Direction
Mexicos urban future is being built on
a fundamental shift in practice: developers
and the government are committed to
building sustainable, smart, efficient, and
interconnected cities under the changing face
of housing and urbanism.
After more than 50 years of government
initiatives to fulfill much-needed social housing,
coupled with the effects from the US crisis,
incoming President Enrique Pea Nieto was
prompted to immediately enforce a National
Housing & Urban Development Policy in 2013.
Its objective was to shift the governments
focus from single-family to vertical housing.
Rosario Robles, Minister of the newly created
Ministry of Agrarian, Territorial and Urban
Development, claims its impact is aligned
with more urban development. This housing
policy devises housing as an organizational
instrument, as an axis to build cities and not
only houses.
Moreover the policy establishes contention
perimeters for new and existing housing,
including services and facilities linked to
attractive subsidies aimed at re-densifying the
metropolitan zones.
Indeed, it was a far cry from the social
housing options provided some decades ago
when most of the population couldnt afford
homes, and the prospect of a home in the
suburbs led to millions of city residents to
flee to remote urbanizations. With housing
agencies doling out subsidized mortgages and
healthy relocation packages, social housing
construction made a much-needed transition.
Progress towards diminishing the housing
deficit was achieved, but the model was
unsustainable. People moved away from the
pick of the jobs and services, increasing traffic,
reducing productivity and, in all, quality of
living. Urban stains were created and we now
need to fix the scars of abandoned properties
and social segregation, says Robles.
Grey hills swamped by precarious self-built
shacks, where entire families live in one single
room, now aim to be replaced with better,
MEXICOS MUSCLE
REVEALING
THE STRENGTH
in partnership with
Sponsored Section
How to Fix
Americas
Infrastructure
Aaron Klein
Aaron Klein
Deforestation
in the Amazon
A CFR INFOGUIDE PRESENTATION
153
Aaron Klein
Spains
Foreign Fighters
The Lincoln Brigade and
the Legacy of the Spanish
Civil War
Sebastiaan Faber
Spain in Our Hearts: Americans in the
Spanish Civil War, 19361939
BY ADAM HOCHSCHILD. Houghton
Mifflin Harcourt, 2016, 464 pp.
Sebastiaan Faber
G O O G L E C U LT U R A L I N S T I T U T E
Sebastiaan Faber
Sebastiaan Faber
Sponsored Report
THAILAND
www.gmipost.com
s one of the leading economies in Asia, the Kingdom of Thailand has not lost its potential for
growth despite the political challenges of recent years. Capitalizing on its unique culture and
breathtaking natural attractions, the country has built a strong tourism industry, while still
diversifying its economic base.
Thailand is currently going through some significant
changes, led by government
policies aimed at building a
sustainable, high-value economy. These changes are vital
in keeping us relevant for the
future and in further enhancing Thailands attractiveness
to the international community, Bangkok Bank President
Chartsiri Sophonpanich said.
Bangkok Bank is the undisputed leader in the Thai banking sector and the preferred
partner for international investors wishing to do business
in the country and the rest
of Asia. The bank company
serves SMEs and large companies, and boasts the largest retail customer base in Thailand.
Surmounting the political
turmoil of the past few years,
Thailands financial system is
on the road to recovery. It has
limited its dependence on
international business, promoted domestic demand and
encouraged productive investments.
We continue to provide
high-quality, convenient financial services to our customers both local and international. We will continue
to support Thai companies
expanding internationally, as
well as help foreign companies
looking to invest in Thailand
and the wider region, Sophonpanich also said.
And this steady and strong
financial system has won over
international investors. While
foreign companies have begun
looking into Thailand again,
the countrys industry giants
Sponsored Report
THAILAND
162 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Ungar Replies
Recent Books
Political and Legal
G. John Ikenberry
Shaper Nations: Strategies for a
Changing World
War by Other Means: Geoeconomics
and Statecraft
BY ROBERT D. BLACKWILL AND
JENNIF ER M. HARRIS. Harvard
EDITED BY WILLIAM I.
HITCHCOCK, MELVYN P. LEF FLER,
AND JEF F REY W. LEGRO. Harvard
September/October 2016
165
Recent Books
166
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Recent Books
167
Recent Books
168
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Recent Books
169
Recent Books
170
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Recent Books
171
Recent Books
I
172
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Recent Books
173
Recent Books
Western Europe
174
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Andrew Moravcsik
Recent Books
175
Recent Books
176
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Recent Books
Western Hemisphere
September/October 2016
177
Recent Books
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Recent Books
179
Recent Books
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
directory
Subscriber Services
subs.foreignaffairs.com
tel: 800.829.5539
international tel: 813.910.3608
Academic Resources
www.foreignaffairs.com/classroom
e-mail: fabooks@cfr.org
tel: 800.716.0002
Submit an Article
www.foreignaffairs.com/submit
Employment and
Internship Opportunities
www.foreignaffairs.com/jobs
international editions
Foreign Affairs Latinoamrica
www.fal.itam.mx
e-mail: fal@itam.mx
181
Recent Books
182
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Middle East
John Waterbury
The New Arab Wars: Uprisings and
Anarchy in the Middle East
BY MARC LYNCH. PublicAffairs, 2016,
304 pp.
Recent Books
September/October 2016
183
Recent Books
Andrew J. Nathan
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Polity, 2016,
224 pp.
185
Recent Books
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Recent Books
187
Recent Books
Africa
Nicolas van de Walle
City of Thorns: Nine Lives in the Worlds
Largest Refugee Camp
BY BEN RAWLENCE. Picador, 2016,
400 pp.
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Recent Books
September/October 2016
189
Recent Books
190
f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
Letters to the
Editor
THE NEW NORMAL
To the Editor:
Martin Feldstein (The Feds Uncon
ventional Monetary Policy, May/June
2016) warns that the Federal Reserves
unprecedented quantitative easing has
created substantial risks for the global
economy. He argues that once interest
rates return to normal, investors will
realize that they have overpaid for assets,
such as commercial real estate, and
another crash may be on the horizon.
Yet interest rates may remain low
for years. Since 2008, U.S. government
debt has grown from under 40 percent
of gdp to nearly 80 percent, a ratio that
in a closed economy would crowd out
other borrowing and cause interest rates
to rise. But the United States is by no
means a closed economy. U.S. trading
partners have been more than willing to
purchase U.S. government debt at low
interest rates. Indeed, interest rates are
lower than theyve been for a century.
Because foreign investors hold more
than one-third of U.S. government debt,
it has not crowded out private domestic
investment. As a result, interest rates
have not risen.
The Federal Reserve may have little
discretion to raise rates in the medium
term, while other countries are offering
negative interest rates. Although the
Feds mandates are price stability and
full employment, the Fed is unlikely to
ignore the effect of any rise in interest
Franklin Williams
Internship
The Council on Foreign Relations is seeking
talented individuals for the Franklin Williams
Internship.
The Franklin Williams Internship, named after
the late Ambassador Franklin H. Williams,
was established for undergraduate and graduate
students who have a serious interest in
international relations.
Ambassador Williams had a long career of
public service, including serving as the
American Ambassador to Ghana, as well as the
Chairman of the Board of Trustees of Lincoln
University, one of the countrys historically
black colleges. He was also a Director of the
Council on Foreign Relations, where he made
special efforts to encourage the nomination of
black Americans to membership.
The Council will select one individual each
term (fall, spring, and summer) to work in
the Councils New York City headquarters.
The intern will work closely with a Program
Director or Fellow in either the Studies or
the Meetings Program and will be involved
with program coordination, substantive
and business writing, research, and budget
management. The selected intern will be
required to make a commitment of at least 12
hours per week, and will be paid $10 an hour.
To apply for this internship, please send a
rsum and cover letter including the semester, days, and times available to work to
the Internship Coordinator in the Human
Resources Office at the address listed below.
The Council is an equal opportunity employer.
Council on Foreign Relations
Human Resources Office
58 East 68th Street, New York, NY 10065
tel: 212.434 . 9400 fax: 212.434 . 9893
humanresources@cfr.org http://www.cfr.org
191
To the Editor:
Varun Sivaram and Teryn Norris
(The Clean Energy Revolution, May/
June 2016) present a sobering reality
about clean energy technologies: todays
solar panels and wind turbines are prob
ably not sufficient if the world wants to
meet the emissions-reduction goals set at
the Paris climate conference. Their call
for massive investment in next-generation
green technologies fails to address a
crucial problem, however: how such
technologies can be rolled out at scale
in a way that is commercially viable.
The best places for moving innovative
technologies from the laboratory to mass
use are in the developing world. Together,
China and India have as much potential
for scaling up renewable technologies
as the United States and the European
Foreign Affairs (ISSN 00157120), September/October 2016, Volume 95, Number 5. Published six times annually (January, March,
May, July, September, November) at 58 East 68th Street, New York, NY 10065. Print subscriptions: U.S., $54.95; Canada, $66.95;
other countries via air, $89.95 per year. Canadian Publication MailMail # 1572121. Periodicals postage paid in New York, NY, and
at additional mailing offices. postmaster: Send address changes to Foreign Affairs, P.O. Box 60001, Tampa, FL 33662-0001. From
time to time, we permit certain carefully screened companies to send our subscribers information about products or services that we
believe will be of interest. If you prefer not to receive such information, please contact us at the Tampa, FL, address indicated above.
192 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
SHAPING TOMORROWS
LEADERS TODAY
Degree Programs
Ph.D. in Political Science and
International Affairs
Master of International Affairs
Master of Public Policy
Master of Chinese Economic and
Political Affairs
Master of Advanced Studies
in International Affairs
(Executive Degree)