Sun 08Jan-Jun2015

Human beings are central to natural and cultural environment. In terms of economic
activity humans are both producers and consumers. It creates its own environment
through its growth, distribution, skills and activities. Many environmental problems
arise from the simple fact that, through time, people put more and more pressure
on environmental resources and environmental systems. This is partly because of
rising numbers, but it also reflects rising expectations and changing lifestyles.
Understanding of the demographic profile is therefore very important for all kinds of
analysis.
History of population growth and distribution pattern: The Homo sapiens developed
from a number of different but related stocks from several separate Old World
tropical-subtropical centers. It is believed that Africa provided the primary centers of
human evolution while Asia provided the secondary ones. Europe and America was
on the periphery. The Paleolithic man spread all over the worlds land area, the
number of course being small. About 10,000 years ago, at the beginning of
Agricultural revolution, human occupation expanded in various parts of Arfica,
Austrailia, Europe, Asia and the Americas. The distribution pattern being rather
sparse, thin and uneven; the earths population may have been 0.12 million. About
25,000 years back, the world population was thought to be only 3.3 million.
Approximately 15,000 years ago, the world population expanded to about 5.3
million with a density of about 0.1 persons/sq. mile. However, the average
population concentration during the natural food-collection period was roughly
3/sq. mile. With the beginning of agricultural revolution, food surplus was available
for exchange & significant growth of world population has been noticed. About
5000-6000 years ago, at the beginning of urban revolution world population shoot
to over 86 million with a density of still 1 person/sq. mile. During the same period
three different population density patterns were visible. 1) A concentration of
population in the areas of village agriculture and gathering economy was
predominant in most of Western Europe, a thin strip of North Africa and the middle
East and in some parts of China and Indonesia i.e. the centers of riverine
civilizations. 2) Thin and scattered population over rest of the land sea. 3) The
unoccupied lands along the northern margins of Eurasia, North America, parts of
Tropical South America and the dry South-western Africa. With the emergence of
urban civilization although there was not much fundamental change of population

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growth, greater density of population was observed in the rapidly multiplying cities
and towns, especially around the fertile crescent where density varied between
2500 persons/100 sq.miles to 5000 persons/100sq. miles. By 6000 years ago the
earths population rose to about 86.5 million with a density of 2.7 persons per
square mile. The world population varied between 133 to 300 million at the start of
Christian era. At the close of ancient period and at the beginning of modern period
i.e 1650 the global population ranged between 500-600 million. The firs billion
population of the world was achieved in the year 1810 and took several hundred
thousand years to reach this figure. It took 115 years to arrive at the 2 nd billion in
1925 and thereafter each billion of population was added at a much faster rate.

Population concentrations:

East Asia
South Asia
Southeast Asia
Europe
North America

Major world population concentrations:

East Asia (China, Korea, Vietnam, Japan)
- China 1.3 billion
- Predominance of farming
- Coastal and valley distribution

Sparsely populated:

Dry lands
Wet lands
High lands
Cold lands

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South Asia (1.5 billion: India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan)
- India most populous (projected 1.6 billion in 2150)
- Ganges river
- Bangladesh
- Physical barriers
Europe (700 million)
- European coal fields
- Dense settlement in mountains regions
- Urbanization (Germany 85%, U.K.90%, France 74%)
North America (East-central U.S. & Southeastern Canada)
- Urbanization
- Boston to Washington corridor, Chicago agglomeration
Other moderate concentrations (Southeast Asia, Indonesia, Nile Valley)
Some generalizations
- 90% north of equator, 66% mid-latitudes
- 50% people live on 5% of available land
- lowland concentrations
- 66% of population within 500km. of the ocean
Population Density
Arithmetic Density: the total number of people divided by the total land area;
Physiological Density: the number of people per unit of area of arable land, which
is suitable for agriculture; Agricultural Density: the number of farmers to the
total amount of land suitable for agriculture.

Growth of population

Prosperity or backwardness of an area is closely linked to its population growth. Population

growth is linked with the number of births and deaths. Natural population growth refers to
net reproduction, which is equal to minus number of deaths. The effect of population
growth is reflected on the economy (growing, stagnant etc) and development pattern
(developed,

developing,

underdeveloped

etc).

The

growth

pattern

refers

to

net

reproduction, which is equal to minus number of deaths. Besides, population growth is

affected by in and out migration. The effect of population growth is reflected on the
economy (growing, stagnant etc) and development pattern (developed, developing,
underdeveloped etc).
The doubling time is the number of years before a population will be twice as large as it is

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today. The doubling time of something that is increasing at a constant rate can be
approximated in the following way:
70 / rate of increase
If you have a 1.1% increase you divide 70 by 1.1 = 63.63 years

Population change factors

Births +

Immigration
+

Total population

Emigration
-

Deaths -

Age-sex structure of the population

The age and sex structure of a population is important in many ways. It is the basic aspect
in defining the limits of a nations reproductive potential. It is also a fundamental
determinant of a countrys labor force supply. This has a strong impact in determining the
requirements of various essentials, services and goods. Any fluctuations in the number of
people entering particular age have strong influence on educational institutions,
employment, housing, health services and other social needs. The age structure of a
population is determined by fertility, mortality, migration and natural hazards like cyclone,
flood, earthquake, volcanic eruption etc and also by human action like war.

Fertility

Fertility is one of the basic aspects in defining the limits of a nations reproductive
potential. Fertility refers to the actual reproductive performance of a population. It is the
number of live births occurring in a population. It is influenced by the age at marriage, the

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availability and use of contraception, economic development, the status of women and the
age-sex structure. Fertility has considerable effect on the dependency rate and eventually
on the economic development of a country.

Mortality:

Mortality refers to the death that occurs within a population. While we all eventually die,
the probability of dying is linked to many factors such as age, sex, race, occupation and
social class. The incidence of death can reveal much about a populations standard of
living and health care. It also has important influence on a nations workforce situation and
economic development.

Migration

Migration is the movement of population; more specifically the movement of people across
a specified boundary for the purpose of establishing a new residence. This is one of the
important components of population change. The terms immigration and emigration
are used to refer to moves between countries i.e. international migration. The
parallel terms in-migration and out-migration are used for internal movement
between different areas within a country i.e. internal migration. Other terms involve
origin & destination, movers and stayers etc. Migration has considerable impact on a
nations resource base, economic development and social environment.
Malthuss theory of population growth
Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834) discussed about the dangers of rapid
population growth. In his book entitled Essays on the principle of population
published in 1798 emphasized that:

Population has a natural tendency to increase rapidly as long as food or

subsistence is available.

If unchecked population will go on doubling itself every 35 years.

Population will increase at a geometric ratio (2,4,8,16,32 etc) whereas

food supply will increase at an arithmetic ratio (3,6,9,15 etc) and

Food supply will be quickly overtaken and exceeded by the number of

people to be fed.

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Food Supply
15
12
9
6

Population Growth

3
0
2

16 32
Time

Malthus mentioned that from time to time nature imposes certain checks
to restrict growing population in the form of diseases, famine, flood etc.

He therefore suggested that it was desirable that the people should try to
impose restriction or preventive checks instead of nature. Such checks
according to him were delayed or abstention from marriage, abide by
moral values, use contraception or even go for abortions. He also
indicated that migration was likely to solve the food problem of a country
at least temporarily.

Malthuss theory was criticized on several grounds like:

It was wrong to believe that population increases by geometric proportions

and not that everybody was interested to expand its family size and that
every child born will survive.

Since he was a determinist, he overlooked social, cultural, scientific and

industrial abilities and possibilities of human beings.

He considered human reproductive ability to be unlimited which in fact is not.

Food supply may not increase at an arithmetic ratio because of technological

advancement.

In many industrialized nations new technologies have been developed to

increase the productivity of the workers, developed modern medical
practices, and lowered their birth rates.

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Food supply increases also outstripped population gains and higher standards
of living also occurred.

However, Malthuss theory appears to be valid up to the present time in many

developing areas.

In such countries the birth rates remained, modern medical practices

including the use of antibiotics has reduced infant mortality, life expectancy
levels also increased-all these aided to explosive population growth rates.

Africas population for example could double in the next 25 years proving at
least partially the Malthus theory.

Demographic transition theory

There is wide variation in the demographic behavior of the population throughout the
globe. This variation can be related to the socio-cultural and economic development.
However, the population growth scenario is rather complex and it is difficult to time the
transition of population growth from high to low growth, as it is consistent with
the level and pace of socio-economic development. This transition has been
explained by several theories and the most popular is the demographic transition theory
that is useful to explain the relationship between population growth and economic
development.
This theory states that:
The general demographic behavior of all contemporary developed countries can
be associated with three stages of economic development such as
1. The pre-industrial stage (high fluctuating) that is characterized by both high birth
and death rates with wide range of yearly fluctuations resulting in low rates of
population growth or stationary population.
2. The transitional stage (early expanding) that is characterized by declining death
rates but continuing high birth rates resulting in high population growth.
3. The industrial stage (late expanding) that is characterized by further declining
death rates with falling birth rates, initially slowly but with increasing momentum
leading to slowing down of population growth and stabilizing to zero/negative
population growth
4. Low stationary stage (low fluctuating), with low fertility and mortality causing a

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fairly stationary population.
In all these cases socio-economic development and modernization of the society act as the
changing agent. Within this type of demographic transition, the countries may be placed
under two categories, type 1 and type 2.

In type 1 countries the three stages of demographic transition from a high fertility high
mortality regime to low fertility low mortality regime, the change was gradual and took
more than 150 years.
The change in mortality pattern was possible as a result of improved quality of life in terms
of health, hygiene, nutrition, housing and sanitation as well as with rise in income level.
The change in fertility pattern was possible due to imposed conditions in favor of small
families like delayed marriages, abortions & economic development also accelerated such
change of demographic behavior.
The early-industrialized nations of Europe can be placed under type 1, which was mainly
aided by the industrial revolution between late 1800s and completed by 1920. These

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states already had favorable man-land ratio and rural cottage industries. The society also
produced an intermediate middle class composed of rich merchants between the peasants
and aristocrats who took over the intellectual and political power and took the lead in
social and demographic behavior change. However this social transformation was also
gradual.
In type II countries the demographic transition was quick with abrupt fall in the
mortality rates. This drop in mortality rate was possible due to improved medical
technologies, innovation of vaccines, penicillin and antibiotics, eradication of several
diseases (e.g. malaria, tuberculoses etc) and for family planning and birth control
measures. All these prevented infant and child mortality irrespective of social class. This
first change in mortality took place between 1945-85.
The East Asian nations like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan & Singapore are the early examples
of type II countries where the change from subsistence economy to high level of
development was fast especially after 1945. High rate of fall in fertility (from 5-7
child/woman to 2) within 35 years (1950-85) has been noticed.
The low-income developing countries in the 1990s are in the second and third stage of this
demographic transition with population growth varied positively to a scale of 2.7.
With respect to Economic Development and demographic transition it may be said
that in the countries of sub-Sharan Africa the economic development was almost
negligible. Such insignificant growth was affected by frequent economic crises like
environmental adversities leading to food shortages, loss of export revenues and shrinking
foreign investment and political crises persisting for over a decade. This scene may be
compared to Malthusian scale.