Running head: RISK ASSESSMENT

Risk assessment
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RISK ASSESSMENT

Risk assessment
Introduction
Risk assessment is the process of identifying risks and determining their potential impact.
Risk assessments have been used effectively to inform decision-makers on a range of
environmental management issues. The determination of the potential impact of an individual
risk by assessing both the likelihood that it will occur and the impact if it should occur, and then
combining the result according to an agreed rule to give a single measure of potential impact. In
order to determine the risks, a risk assessment can typically be completed in four basic steps.
Risk assessment process has a lot of uncertainty and assumption thereby interfering with
outcome of the assessment. In order to come up with a well informed risk assessment decision all
the limitation of the process must be placed into consideration (Dore, 2015). The paper presents
an assessment of water contamination and its possible impact on the environment by evaluating a
case of chemical contamination of a public well.
The case
A local chemical distribution facility is causing the contamination of ground water. There
is a leakage of chemicals from the facility tank to a site beneath the facility. The leakage is
causing a contamination of 14.5 milligrams per liter (mg/L) to the site. The ground water flows
to a public well that is located approximately one kilometer away. The flow rate of the
groundwater is approximately 0.25 meters per day. Preliminary measurements indicate that there
is degradation of the chemical at the aquifer. The chemical has a half life of eleven years. The
retardation factor to be considered in this case is that chemical flows twice as much as the rate of

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flow of the groundwater. Conservative approach to the scenario assumes that the chemical
pollutant does not disperse within the aquifer, but flows along with it. The public well delivers
water to 50,000 customers by pumping 75,000 gallons of water on a daily basis.
Questions
1. How do you set the problem up?
i.

What is given in the problem? The concentration of the chemical contaminant and
its flow rate are given. The concentration is 14.5 milligrams per liter (mg/L) and
the flow rate is 0.25meters per day. The population at risk is also given (50,000
customers).

ii.

How do these factors relate to one another? The concentration and the flow rate of
the contaminant are essential in calculating exposure dose (D) in mg/kg/day) that
is likely to have an impact on the population consuming the contaminated water.
The distance of the contamination point from the public well determines the rate
at which the well gets contaminated given the rate of groundwater flow is 0.25
meters per day. The distance is 1km and the flow rate is 0.25 meters per day.
Therefore, it will take eleven years for the well to be contaminated by the
chemical pollutant. This is calculated by dividing the distance by the flow rate.

2. Estimate the steady-state pollutant concentration expected at the well. The analysis of
steady-state conservative system is simple because it is assumed that the chemical
pollutant is conservative. A substance that is conserved does not undergo a chemical
reaction, radioactive decay of bacterial decomposition. The decay rate for conservative

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substance is zero. Conservative substance includes carbon dioxide dissolved in air, heavy
metals, and total dissolved solids in water. Non-conservative substance includes
radioactive, chemically reactive and decomposing substances (Dore, 2015).
In a steady-state conservative system, input rate = output rate. The steady state
concentration of chemical pollutant at the well is given by multiplying the concentration
of the pollutant by its flow rate. 14.5 milligrams per liter (mg/L) X 0.25 meters per day
gives 3.625 mg/L.
The steady state non-conservative system = input rate = output rate + decay.
Assuming that the decay is proportional to the concentration in 1st order day, then
dC
=kC
dt

, Where K = reaction rate coefficient, in units of 1/time, and C =

concentration of the pollutant. The separation and integration of variables yields:

C

= k dt
dC
C0 C
0

ln(C) - ln(C0) = -kt kt0

kt
Taking exponential on each side: C=C 0 e

Decay rate = kCV

3. Estimate the daily dose for a 70-kg adult ingesting 2 L/day of this water. USEPA default
of 30 years.

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Exposure dose (D) in mg/kg/day) = C x IR x EF/BW

Where:
C = Concentration of contaminant (mg/L)
IR = Intake rate of contaminated water (L/day)
EF = Exposure Factor (no unit) =1
D = (3.625 mg/L x 2 L/day x 1)/70 = 0.1036mg/L
4.

If the carcinogenic potency of the contaminant is 0.02 (mg/kg/day)-1, estimate the

excess cancers per year in this population if they were to drink this water for 70 years.
The excess cancer per year on the population = carcinogenic potency x size of the
population. 0.2 x 50,000 = 10,000

5.

Predict the impact of contaminated water on an infant ingesting 1L/day and with a mass
of 5 kg. D = (3.625mg/L x 1 x 1)/5 = 0.725 mg/L
The basic steps of risk assessment
The four basic steps are of risk assessment are as follows: hazard identification, exposure

assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Hazard identification is the

process of examining peer-reviewed studies on effects in humans and laboratory animals, to
determine the types of health problems a chemical can cause. This step involves evaluation of
the nature and strength of the evidence of causation between a chemical and its effect. In
exposure assessment, scientists estimate the duration, amount, frequency and of exposure to a

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chemical. They often use environmental monitoring data and mathematical models to estimate
exposures. Scientists also evaluate the route of exposure and any other scenario-specific
exposure information. Dose-response assessment is the process whereby scientists use the data
gathered from hazard indemnification to estimate the amount of a chemical that is likely to result
in a particular health effect (Dore, 2015).

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References
Dore, M. H. (2015). Risk Assessment for Safe Drinking Water Supplies. In Global Drinking
Water Management and Conservation (pp. 117-151). Springer International Publishing.