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THEORIESOF MOTIVATION
INTEGRATING
PIERS STEEL
of Calgary
University
CORNELIUS J.K?NIG
Universit?t
Z?rich
human
behavior
has been hindered
toward understanding
Progress
by discipline
our efforts. Fortunately,
are con
these separate
endeavors
bound
theories, dividing
on the fundamental
and can be effectively
features of
verging
integrated.
Focusing
expectancy
prospect
picoeconomics,
theory, we
theory, cumulative
theory, and need
a temporal motivational
construct
consistent
with
the
theory (TMT). TMT appears
other investigations,
and behav
from many
major
including
findings
psychobiology
iorism.
on a wide
ior, and
goal
setting.
so
decision making,
fields of economics,
a
common
share
desire
and
ciology,
psychology
our human nature?that
to understand
is, our
sions
The
example,
motivation,
or tempera
essential
character,
disposition,
ment. This extensive, multidisciplinar/y
interest
in establishing
who we are reflects the enor
mous
As Pinker
of the endeavor.
ramifications
theories of human nature have
(2002) catalogs,
used
lamented
ers'
thankful
who
initially
passing
preference/implicit
economic
science
quate
of prior
before
process
first submitted.
contributions
employed
rates]
reflection
by
these
is a
on
in
scandal
the
would-be
inade
de
this?to
of consilience.
is "a 'jumping
to
Consilience
of
the
of
facts
and
gether'
knowledge
linking
by
fact-based
to create a
theory across disciplines
common groundwork
of explanation"
(1998: 8). If
a theory can be shown to have consilience,
its
from
who provided
the edifice
dis
Despite
regular academic
to be laboring
toward a common
researchers,
publication.
all appear
these different
effectively combine
nature?we
of
human
will have
conceptions
a
common
toward
the
substantially
progressed
To use E. O. Wilson's
ory of basic motivation.
is an excellent
term, this convergence
example
the review
we
methods
interest
and
(e.g.,
the opportunity
though
insightful
judgment. With her stewardship,
a much better paper
than what
the combined
greatly appreciate
produced
Also, we
a long chain
cause.
gave us
critical
researchers
prominent
The fact that there are still two schools, the pro
school,
ductivity school and the psychological
constantly crossing swords on this subject [time
do
are
by many
a new
Judge & Hies, 2002), but it is by no means
issue. Consider
the words of Irving Fisher,
the
venerated
economist, which are regrettably still
far too relevant:
We
for
discipline.
Psychology,
the traditions of self-regulation,
and personality,
each with its own
to direct
Mannix,
each
has
These
structure, and etiology.
nomenclature,
our
subdivisions
divide
efforts, lim
necessarily
can
to
extent
the
which
be shared.
iting
insights
This problem has recently been recognized
and
relationships,
lifestyles, and
disastrous
effects when
governments?with
on faulty models.
based
On a smaller applied
and
treatments, training, compensation,
scale,
on our theories of human
selection
all depend
is an overtly
Even job design, which
behavior.
been
within
889
890 Academy
of Management
it
is vastly
validity
improved, since
avenues
of
different
represents
inquiry coming
to similar conclusions.
We begin by further re
of such
the importance and advantages
viewing
scientific
integration.
four closely
related
After this, we
integrate
motivational
theories, using the insights of each
to inform the others. We start with picoeconom
ics (Ainslie, 1992), which we then subsequently
expectancy
theory (e.g., Vroom,
1964), cumulative
prospect
theory (Tversky &
Kahneman,
1992), and need theory (e.g., Dollard
& Miller, 1950). It is important to note that none of
these theories is definitive, each containing var
we are not attempt
limitations. However,
a
in
of
full
their
every detail;
integration
ing
we
are
on
these
stead,
focusing
linking together
ba
theories' most enduring and well-accepted
sic features. One of the most important of these
ious
is time.
is a critical
features
of choice or mo
component
As Drucker notes, "The time
behavior.
is inherent in management
because
dimension
is
forac
concerned
with
decisions
management
Time
tivated
(1990) and
(1990: 228). Also, Kanfer
are epi
that
theories
(2001) critique
for
have
sodic and, thus,
difficulty accounting
over
events.
time
time and
behavior
Fortunately,
or delay does
feature in several motivational
is consistent where
its application
formulations,
it can be ex
included, and through integration
modeling"
Donovan
itwas
the applica
identify four
employing
this model of
must strike a
it
October
variance.
with
extend
balance
Review
A common
theme across
the disparate
disci
of
motivation
is the
decision
and
plines
making
desire
formore comprehensive
and integrated
& Zbaracki,
theories (Cooksey, 2001; Eisenhardt
1992; Langley,
&
Pitcher, Posada,
Mintzberg,
&
1995; Leonard, Beauvais,
Scholl,
Schwartz, & Cooke,
1998). For ex
Saint-Macary,
1999; Meilers,
ample, Locke and Latham, writing about the fu
ture of motivational
that
conclude
research,
"there is now an urgent need to tie these theo
into an overall
processes
together
recommends
(2004: 389). Also, Donovan
review of motivation
that "future work
should move
towards the development
and val
of
model
idation of an integrated, goal-based
ries
and
model"
in his
the important
that incorporates
self-regulation
various
of
theories"
(2001: 69; em
components
two funda
This
desire
reflects
added).
phases
in
motivational
research.
mental
challenges
are
inade
traditional
First, many
paradigms
or
for
realistic
quate
discussing
exploring many
situations.
the very
Second,
complex
our
of
field is being hindered
progress
by seg
and
regation.
inte
yet to be a broad,
the
of
motivation,
any particular
grated theory
a
mo
deals
with
subset
of
ory necessarily
only
a theory may deal
tivational
factors. Although
it potentially will
with these factors very well,
situations.
have
trouble in intricate, realistic
a
to
situation's
very complexity, a larger
Owing
Because
there has
of forces may
be operating.
Conse
ex
no single
theory can adequately
For example,
the observed
plain
phenomena.
rationality
expectancy
theory, which represents
in economics,
is the simplest and consequently
variety
quently,
has
been
criticized
Consider
that indi
been summarized
less than logically
1994;
(Lopes,
is so
Thaler,
1992). In fact, irrational behavior
"The eco
that Albanese
concludes,
pervasive
in
is violated
of rationality
nomic assumption
research
able
cates we act
the behavior
has
of every person"
(1987: 14).
abandon
expectancy
theory,
been
the dominant
paradigm
it much
value, we can make
integrating itwith other estab
motivational
lished
This
principles.
approach
been proposed
Akerlof
already
by George
economist. Aker
(1991), the Nobel Prize-winning
has
take salience
lof argues
that his field should
to
into account,
individuals'
salience
referring
undue sensitivity to the present and consequent
that the
of the future. He shows
undervaluing
more
to
allows
concept
expectancy
fully
theory
grasp
range of areas, such as retirement
failures, cults, crime,
savings,
organizational
and politics. Later in this paper, we also discuss
several complex
topics where a larger variety of
a broad
to be operating
factors appear
An integrated per
typically considered.
in better understanding
is invaluable
spective
motivational
than
them.
In addition,
have
scholars
observed
as well as
of our moti:
that continued
segregation
to scientific
is detrimental
theories
is
serious.
The
Steers, Mow
progress.
problem
note
and
that
the
theoretical
devel
day,
Shapiro
of
work
motivation
has
opment
significantly
lagged behind other fields, that we still widely
argued
vational
rely on obsolete
that intellectual
and
to decline
"seemed
discredited
in
theories, and
the topic has
(2004: 383). As
precipitously"
and Pintrich conclude, a ma
interest
Zeidner, Boekaerts,
jor reason for this decline
same
technical
from one
language
notes,
advance
however,
that
specialty
the medical
into adjacent
fields and different solu
passed
tions to be effectively harmonized.
As
economists
and psychologists.
Consider
Lopes notes, they have been less than coll?gial
in the past,
tending to view each other with
considerable
and distaste"
(1994:
"suspicion
several
198). Similarly, W?rneryd
(1988) quotes
on psychol
eminent economists
whose
words
ogy border on the vitriolic. In fact, Loewenstein
that there has long been an ac
(1992) observes
tive attempt to erase any psychological
content
tially expectancy
theory, is being supplemented
with some of the very concepts
later
that we
stress here (e.g., personality
traits, temporal dis
loss aversion).
As Camerer,
Loewen
counting,
stein, and Rabin
(2004) review, this is fundamen
the economic
field
reshaping
power by basing
improving its explanatory
more realistic psychological
foundations.
tally
and
it on
among
Consequently,
fostering
integration
is important
different motivational
disciplines
the development
and possible.
of
First, it allows
a common
scientists
social
among
language
to complex motivational
fective responses
prob
can
be multifaceted.
As a later
lems, which
of procrastination
self
confirms,
example
failure can occur formany
reasons,
regulatory
formulations
of retirement
to goal
pro
saving
Loewenstein
& Elster,
an integrative
theory
of new and plausible
topics, from group be
setting.
DEVELOPING TMT
sci
of
because
rapidly primarily
can approach
consilience.
Researchers
prob
lems at many different but mutually
supporting
levels of complexity,
to be
allowing
insights
from economics.
been some
economics.
To develop
TMT, we consider
of human nature:
derstandings
expectancy
theory, cumulative
and
need
(CPT),
theory. These
four related
un
picoeconomics,
prospect
theory
four postulations
892 Academy
of Management
are
well
for consolidation,
suited
particularly
sources
common
in their de
reflect
they
terms.
share
Conse
and, thus,
many
velopment
are
areas
of overlap
quite definite. Fur
quently,
since
To further underscore
that
other formulations.
we are integrating motivational
fundamentals,
we begin
section by noting similarities
each
theories. We start with pi
with other prominent
coeconomics
ered, has
Review
October
and
the efforts from behaviorist
Summarizing
sev
notes
economic
Ainslie
(1992)
perspectives,
to provide an accurate
eral attempts
equation.
Of these, thematching
law is one of the first and
1967).1 The match
simplest (Chung & Herrnstein,
how frequency, magnitude,
ing law considers
and delay of reinforcement affect choices, with
the critical
delay being
nant model
feature.
It is the domi
various
among
describing
variable-interval
administered,
concurrently
schedules
(Ainslie, 1992). In other words, when
we must choose among several courses of action
that all result in a reward, albeit at different
choice
best predicts
the aggregate
times, this model
of adults
behaviors
&
Green,
(see Myerson
1995).
in
Similarly, a related version of this law used
the economic
Picoeconomics
or Hyperbolic
Discounting
Ainslie
(1992), under the title of Picoeconomics,
and Ainslie and Haslam
(1992), under the title of
a theory that
discuss
Discounting,
Hyperbolic
over time.
to
account
for
behavior
choice
of
helps
considerable
demonstrates
theory already
consilience, with Ainslie drawing support from a
variety of research literature, including sociology,
and psychodynamic
social psychology,
psychol
as
as
and eco
well
behaviorist
ogy,
psychology
The
in particular.
the personality
For example,
and
of
future orientation all
traits
impulsiveness
to
the concept of hy
have strong commonalities
recent work in
In addition,
perbolic discounting.
underscores
the importance of hy
psychobiology
nomics
In choosing
them, we have an
among
fu
innate tendency to inordinately undervalue
ture events. We
tend, then, to put off tasks lead
in favor of ones
ing to distant but valuable
goals
lesser
rewards. In
with more immediate
though
time
marches
and as the
on,
however,
evitably,
tivities.
fects of temporal
discounting
mathematically.
Utilit?
Rate
X Amount
Delay
(1)
for a course of ac
Utility indicates
preference
tion. Naturally,
the higher the utility, the greater
The next three variables
the preference.
reflect
or
of
of
action.
the
the
reward
aspects
payout
or frequency that
indicates
the expectancy
to
action
the
reward.
the
will lead
It ranges from
0 percent to 100 percent, with 100 percent reflect
Rate
indicates
the amount of
ing certainty. Amount
it
reward that is received on payout. Essentially,
indicates
the magnitude
of the incentive. Fi
one
nally, delay indicates how long, on average,
must wait
to receive the payout. Since delay
is
in the denominator
of the equation,
the longer
the delay, the less valuable
the course of action
is perceived.
There also
have
been
several
modifications
of
the basic
since
delay
ered at
create
longer
necessarily
a
new
is typi
Also,
parameter
delays.
to capture
individual
differences
cally included
to
the
The
greater
sensitivity
delay.
regarding
on
effect
the
the
have
sensitivity,
larger
delays
lower
rates
average
choice. Of all
these modifications,
Mazur's
1
This matching
law can be further decomposed
more
basic
behaviorist
(Hernnstein,
principles
invariance
and relativity.
specifically,
(1987)
into even
1979)?
equation
the simplest
FIGURE 1
spread:
Utility
Amount
(2)
z + T{T_t)
from dropping
three
rate, there are
?
from
the
t
law.
T
changes
original matching
refers to the delay of the reward
in terms of
"time reward" minus
"time now." T refers to the
to
subject's sensitivity
delay. The larger T is, the
Aside
determinant of instantaneous
utility. In addition,
can be used
the reciprocal
of this equation
to
instead of
predict preferences
among punishers
rewards
(Mazur,
1998). Consequently,
people
tomore instant ones.
prefer distant punishers
There have been several other attempts to fur
ther refine this equation,
but without
estab
lished success.
For example,
into
explorations
other
mathematical
using
expressions
(e.g.,
& Maruo,
1984),
functions,2 tend not to
exponential
particularly
be as accurate
& McFadden,
(Green, Myerson,
1997; Mazur,
2001), although
they are still fa
vored in economic
circles because
of their close
to a purely
resemblance
rational
discount
Logue,
Rodriguez,
Pe?a-Correal,
model.
In economics,
this phenomenon
is stud
the designation
of time preference
or
1991).
implicit interest rate (Antonides,
1 outlines picoeconomics
Figure
by display
the
ing
utility curves for two courses of action:
or immediately
an expected
saving
spending
financial bonus. From a distance,
both options
are effectively discounted,
and the benefits of
ied under
the bo
saving appear
superior. However, when
nus is received from the employer, at time tl, the
the sav
spending benefits are immediate while
benefits
remain
distant.
Because
of
ing
temporal
discounting,
changing
crossing
established
find themselves
people
likely
their original
and
this
intentions,
of utility
lines
reflects
the well
of preference
reversal
phenomenon
Loewenstein
&
(Ainslie, 1992;
Prelec, 1992; Steel,
in press). What
is planned
today does not al
turn into tomorrow's actions.
ways
2
=
e-r(T-i)Value
example,
Utility
&
stein,
2002).
O'Donoghue,
For
(Frederick,
Loewen
Saving
Cash
Reversal
Between Spending
and
As a Function of Time Remaining
to
Bonus and Hyperbolic
Discounting
High
Spending
Saving
Utility
Preference
reversal
Low
Future
t2
Now
Time
Expectancy
Theory
X value (E X
Expectancy
theory, or expectancy
V) theory, represents an extensive
family of in
dividual
formulations. Vroom
(1964) first intro
to industrial-organizational
duced
the notion
his model
of action phases,
states,
discussing
are established
"Preferences
the
by employing
evaluative
criteria of feasibility and desirabil
is related
to
ity" (1996: 289). Plainly,
feasibility
a
while
is
form
of
value.
expectancy,
desirability
E X V theories suggest
that a process akin to
rational gambling
determines
choices
among
courses of action. For each option, two consider
ations are made:
that
(1) what is the probability
this outcome will be achieved,
and (2) how much
is the expected
outcome
valued?
Multiplying
these components,
and value
(i.e.,
expectancy
E X V), the action
as
that is then appraised
largest is the one most likely to be pursued. A
is that they are
major limitation to E X V models
have difficulty ac
and, as mentioned,
episodic
over time (Kanfer, 1990).
for behavior
counting
This limitation may partially explain Van Eerde
894 Academy
of Management
and Thierry's
(1996) meta-analytic
finding that
over time rather
E X V often predicts behavior
and significantly
than one's
less well
weakly
intention to perform. Fortunately,
its incorpora
tion into a hyperbolic discounting model
largely
rectifies
this weakness.
As mentioned,
of the original
the numerator
two
law
terms: amount
is
of
matching
composed
and rate. Respectively,
these terms are equiva
lent to value and expectancy,
reflecting a shift
from a behavioral
be extreme.
Conse
may
more
in
is
described
accurately
quently,
as
attractiveness
terms
the perceived
cognitive
or aversiveness
It reflects a sub
of the outcome.
on an individual's
jective evaluation,
dependent
these
differences
amount
rate refers
perception.
Similarly,
lead to rewards
that actions
quency
of acquiring
tively, the probability
as
amount
outcome.
By describing
returning
rate
to the
fre
or, alterna
the expected
and
value
in the form of
to encapsu
begins
to the equation
expectancy,
picoeconomics
late expectancy
theory.
should be as follows:
The
final
= Expectancy X Value
utilit*?z
+ nr-o?
equation
can be argued
Of course, other modifications
Vroom
For
from expectancy
example,
theory.
down into two compo
(1964) breaks expectancy
In this
nents: expectancy
and
instrumentality.
the intended
refers towhether
case, expectancy
course of action can be completed
successfully.
rather
&
(Van Eerde
helpful
have
other refinements
terms that account
including
than
1996). Many
Thierry,
been proposed,
for resource
allocation
October
CPT
(1992) CPT, an up
Tversky and Kahneman's
date of Kahneman
and Tversky's
(1979) prospect
a
is
model
theory,
descriptive
closely related to
traditional
At
expectancy
theory, particularly
revision
formulation.
The
is
(1957)
major
the introduction of an "approach/avoidance"
di
kinson's
of motivation,
pro
investigation
chobiological
a
"bivariate
of
model
evaluative
pose
space,"
con
which
note also provides
they themselves
to
vergent validity
prospect
theory.
as one of the leading theories
Often described
of decision
& Wakker,
1997; Levy,
(e.g., Fennema
choice under uncer
seeks to describe
is derived, as
how value
tainty by reconsidering
well as how expectancy
should be transformed.
of
Here, we review only the pertinent aspects
1992), CPT
a full discussion
of the original and cumu
lative version of prospect
theory requires more
attention
than can be easily provided, although
CPT:
it is available
elsewhere
& Wak
(see Fennema
ker, 1997, and Tversky & Kahneman,
1992). Also,
exam
for a relevant and recent psychological
ple, see Hunton, Hall, and Price (1998), who ap
ply
(3)
Review
prospect
original
"voice"
in participative
theory
to the value
decision
of
making.
interpret
values
are based
and
expectancies.
First,
val
ues
convex
on outcomes
for losses
than for
abilities
whereas
tend to be
convex
(i.e., overweighted),
tend to be concave
higher probabilities
to the determina
Similar
(i.e., underweighted).
tion of values,
the exact parameters
for the
transformation
and gains.
mated
differently.3
By itself, CPT suffers the same limitation that
out for expectancy
theo
Kanfer
(1990) pointed
is, the failure to include time as a vari
ry?that
have al
other researchers
Consequently,
various
of
prospect
integrations
ready proposed
time-discounting
theory with some hyperbolic
able.
function
& Prelec,
1992; Rachlin,
&
Groenewoud,
1997).
Schouwenburg
to
this foundation and CPT's
similarity
are
to
two
terms
needed
expectancy
theory, only
(Loewenstein
2000;
Given
incorporate
CPT
into picoeconomics.
CPTX CPT
TTx-l-x-_ V ^CPTX ^CPT+ V
_
_
Z
Utility 2, z +
r(r
t) i=k+l z + r(r
t)
i=l
(4)
n possible
one considers
For any decision,
outcomes.
The first term, containing
E?PT and
for
the ex
values
reflects
the
transformed
VqPT,
the
with
k
and
associated
per
pectancy
gains
ceived
value
of these gains.
E?PT and V?PT,
of each
The second
reflects
the
term, containing
associ
transformed values
for the expectancy
value
k losses and the perceived
ated with n
summation
sign that makes CPT cumulative.
to model
Of note, although
the ability
deci
a
outcomes
sions with multiple
is
sig
possible
it takes a moment
to con
nificant improvement,
is interpreted under this
sider how expectancy
model. With CPT the decision weight or ECpt is
not absolute
of
but the capacity
expectancy
3
Mathematically,
create
expectancy
notably
ticeable
similar
the transformations
both
curves
to Fechner's
for value
reflecting
logarithmic
law (1966) describing
and
functions,
just no
law states
differences.
Fechner's
that,
perceptual
x
a
will
notice
of
Ax
that allows
k
amount,
you
given
change
to remain a constant, as in Ax/x = k. To be precise,
however,
use a related
and Kahneman
but
(1992) actually
form of psychophysical
called
"Steven's
exponential
scaling
law." Similarly,
is also modeled
expectancy
using an expo
be de
nential
these
functions may
function.
Informally,
Tversky
scribed
as
the principle
of diminishing
returns.
events.
in Tversky and
of capacity,
be
"can
words,
interpreted as the
event"
of the respective
contribution
notion
The
Kahneman's
marginal
effec
all possibilities
(1992: 301). To combine
is evaluated
incremental
tively, each outcome
to the value
of other out
is, relative
ly?that
comes. For example,
the expectancy
weighting
it
for any positive event is the weighted
chance
or an even better outcome will occur, minus
the
chance
the next better outcome will
weighted
occur (e.g., similar to 40 percent
30 percent =
It is helpful to keep
10 percent, except weighted).
inmind the simple circumstance
where only one
one
outcome
outcome
and/or
negative
positive
is considered.
In this case, the capacity of each
outcome
is equal
to ECPT, and the equation
is
more readily interpretable
as no summation
is
necessary.
available
is
Further discussion
of capacity
in the articles of Fennema
and Wak
(1992).
Need
Theory
theories was
psychological
a
it is
of
needs.
As
whole,
(1938)
system
Murray's
in
somewhat
but key aspects
endure
dated,
as
modern
1991),
personality
theory (Tellegen,
well as in the decision-making
(Loe
paradigm
One
of the earlier
traits
1996). For example,
personality
to be the behavioral
of needs,
expression
needs as measured
especially
by questionnaire
wenstein,
appear
To begin, needs
represent an internal energy
force that directs behavior
toward actions
that
and release
of the need
permit the satisfaction
itself (i.e., satiation). This face is what drives us
can be primary or
to do whatever we do. Needs
to our biological
viscerogenic,
directly related
or they can be
nature
the
for
need
food),
(e.g.,
or
to our person
related
secondary
psychogenic,
for affiliation,
need
for achievement
overcoming
and
obstacles,
the need
is deriving
the need
for power.
The
from
pleasure
for affiliation
of Management
896 Academy
Review
October
a classic
formulation of expectancy
the
some of
ory, as well as Hull (1943), who provides
of behavior
influential
the most
formulations
from socializing
intimacy is deriving pleasure
and sharing with people, and the need forpower
is deriving pleasure
from gaining
strength or
another's
prestige,
particularly
by affecting
are
not
stable
but tend
These
needs
well-being.
to fluctuate in intensity, ranging
from a slum
mentally
place of utility, Hull indicates excitatory poten
uses
to
tial (sEr), while
Atkinson
tendency
success
of expectancy,
achieve
(Ts). In place
to an absolute
craving.
bering satisfaction
are ruled partly by need inten
Our behaviors
that is the most in
sity. At any time, the need
tense is the one we attempt to satisfy or to re
Thus,
impor
by ex
ternal
when
have
and,
that
with many
monalities
hensive
to
modern
constructs.
lished
psychological
review, Tellegen
several
and
(1991) connects
theories
other
and well-estab
In a compre
press
stimulus-re
(e.g.,
theorists
the trait
tion. To predict aggregated
behavior,
level will suffice (Epstein & O'Brien,
1985), but
for specific outcomes, we would prefer to know a
need's
specific strength. Finally, press is essen
tially a combination
lay. As we discuss
and time de
of expectancy
later, others have reviewed
in great detail.
these connections
To some extent, need
theory can be further
works
of McClelland
the
integrated
through
reviews
4
a
There
has
somewhat
tailed
review
been
criticism
simplified
view
that drive
(1964), who
or need
of reinforcement,
pro
tional
states,
In addition, At
alent to need
for achievement.
kinson proposes
that the utility of any achieve
is determined
situation
ment-oriented
by two
factors:
for
the need
individual-difference
failure. The
the need to avoid
has on overall utility is calcu
as with losses and gains
in
lated separately,
the ten
CPT, with the resulting value indicating
dency to pursue achievement.
Dollard
and Miller
(1950) provide even greater
achievement
effect each
and
need
some
connection.
They also attempt to describe
of the conflicts observed
with psychodynamic
drives or needs
Consis
through behaviorism.
tentwith the concept of press, Dollard and Miller
as we get
note that drive strength increases
of our goals. This, they
closer to the realization
in a de
Savage
and Swindell
McSweeney
role that need
theory may
pectancy
and avoidance
behavior when they reliably pre
dict the occurrence of rewards and punishments.
also
Savage
invaluable
proven
ever,
of Atkinson's
and Hull's
theories
identical, both ultimately using ex
frameworks that differ funda
by value
in
in
nomenclature.
For example,
only
Core aspects
are virtually
is
reduction
and
vides
revitalized
the
5
while
their similarity, Weiner,
reviewing
Highlighting
notes
that "there was
the history of motivational
research,
some contentment
in eliminating
the term drive and
merely
of
notion
of
that
the
habit
with
(1990:
expectancy"
replacing
619).
to be largely de
far, need theory appears
same
rived from the
fundamental
features as
picoeconomics,
expectancy
theory, and CPT. Be
havior is determined
by need strength (utility),
and long-term considerations
(delayed) are only
relevant to the extent they affect its present
in
two relatively
tensity. Need theory also provides
The first has already been
unique contributions.
mentioned?that
need theory explicates
the in
dividual
determinants
of value
need
for
(e.g.,
The second regards the discount
achievement).
is presently
which
treated as
constant,
T,
ing
identical
for both losses and gains. However,
Dollard
crease
and Miller
(1950) suggest
in drive occurs at different
that this in
rates for dif
In their words,
ferent needs.
"The strength of
more
avoidance
increases
rapidly with near
ness than does that of approach.
In other words,
the gradient of avoidance
is steeper than that of
recent research, as
(1950: 352). More
approach"
reviewed
(2003), sug
by Trope and Liberman
the
actu
however?that
losses
gests
opposite,
are
less
discounted
than
ally
steeply
gains. De
these
these
both
results
differences,
spite
T
not
indicate
that
should
be
commonly
kept at
a constant but should differ forgains and losses.
our
Consequently,
fashion:
formula
is revised
in this
tion as an example
of TMT?a
phenomenon
is uniquely
suitable
for explanation.
Fundamental
that
Features
drive
both
the situation
and
individual
differences.
can
Outcomes
satisfy needs to different degrees.
can assuage
an appe
for example,
tite better than a light snack. Furthermore,
the
outcome and value
between
is cur
relationship
vilinear and relative to a reference point, as per
A full meal,
"suffonsified."
To precisely
sufficiently
a
value
for
predict
specific person and option,
we must determine
present need strength and
how satisfying that option is perceived.
If either
of these approach
zero, then value
itself will
ready
also
Utility
2j
i=l
, r+,T _ A
z7 + r+(r
-1)
^
i=k+l
become negligible.
occurs in each theory except pico
Expectancy
economics.
It represents
the perceived
probabil
ity that an outcome will occur. Like value, this is
z + r-(r -1)
(5)
we have
con
With
this final modification,
structed TMT. It is an assimilation
of the com
mon and unique
fundamental
features across
our four target theories.
TMT
TMT
is derived
above-described
influenced
differences.
by both
and
different
individual
events
have
Plainly,
of occurring. How
higher and lower likelihoods
ever, there are also stable trends regarding how
FIGURE 2
Valence
Weighted
(VCPT) As a Function of
Valence
{V). Per Tversky and
Unweighted
Kahneman's
(1992) CPT
of motivation:
the
picoeconomics,
expectancy
and
need
TMT
indicates
that
CPT,
ory,
theory.
can be understood
motivation
by the effects of
and
weakened
value,
expectancy
by delay, with
differences
the situation
for rewards
and
CPT
=Va
Unweighted
valence
-10
10
-5
Weighted
valence
898
Academy
these likelihoods.
perceive
ultimately
people
events
to
overestimate
We
tend
low-probability
and underestimate
events, as
high-probability
we
have generalized
expec
per Figure 3. Also,
tancies
that increase
and
decrease
estimation
2002).
in picoeco
Being on the
appears
discounting
Temporal
nomics and need theory (i.e., press).
bottom of Equation
5, the closer temporally an
event becomes,
the greater its influence will be.
of TMT that capture
There are three components
is
time.
The
first
of
refers to
the effect
T, which
trait
to delay.
In traditional
sensitivity
and Ainslie
(1999) ar
terminology, Monterosso
to impulsive
gue that T is largely equivalent
people's
influenc
be environmental
alcohol
Steele
(i.e.,
myopia;
use
and
& losephs,
(Bretteville
1990)
drug
et al., 2002). The second is
Jensen, 1999; Giordano
itself?that
the delay
is, (T
t). Simply, it repre
or
time required to realize an
sents the nearness
that
outcome. The third is Z. This is a constant
infinite
prevents desire or utility from becoming
is effectively zero.
when delay
cal
losses and gains are separately
Finally,
there may
although
er/s such as alcohol
culated
in both CPT
and
need
theory. This
di
FIGURE 3
(ECPT) As a Function of
(E), Per Tversky and
Expectancy
Unweighted
Kahneman's
(1992) CPT
Weighted
Expectancy
EtCPT
Er
(Er+(l-Er)l/y
expectancy
in
that can affect discounting
research,
of
the
(i.e., people
presence
savoring
cluding
to delay and savor a reward), and the
wishing
can be perceived
as a loss or a
same outcome
founds
1999), reflecting
caution
"cold
(e.g., developing
more
be evolutionary
& Tooby, 2000). Still, this
(Cosmides
adaptive
not preclude
individuals
trend does
atypical
for gains.
who are more impulsive
feet"), which
Hierarchical
The
should
Nature
of TMT
between
TMT
and
picoeco
nomics, expectancy
theory, CPT, and need the
ory is largely that of simplicity. The latter theo
on
of TMT, focusing
ries are simplifications
or
varia
terms
fewer
eliminating
idiographic
fea
tion. However,
they also have some unique
relationship
in
tend to explore particular
aspects
for example,
theory
greater depth;
only need
Conse
the role of satiation.
closely examines
do not make
them
quently, their commonalities
redundant. As Locke and Latham also conclude,
theories "do not so much as contra
motivational
tures and
0.2
0
the motivational
0.8
0.6
October
Weighted
Review
of Management
?i-1-1-1?
0.2
0.4
Unweighted
0.6
expectancy
0.8
sciences,
where
"domains
reach
across
many
from chemical
physics and
to
molecular
genetics, chem
chemistry
physical
None of
ical ecology, and ecological
genetics.
levels of complexity,
different
each
have
on this matter:
advice
port Albert Einstein's
"Make everything as simple as possible,
but not
the
Choose
that
the
simpler."
theory
emphasizes
features relevant to the issue at hand. The sim
plest of these is expectancy
theory, which comes
in two primary
ploy a version
assumes
which
forms. Economists
called
"expected
no individual
typically
em
utility theory,"
re
differences
garding
bilities
introduces cognitive
pected utility theory, which
limitations and allows
rationality to be bounded
1986; Simon,
(Furnham & Lewis,
1955). That is,
ease
for
and
it can be
accuracy
trading
speed,
rational
tomake
1986;Smith, 1991).
pectancy
however,
need
to all those
similar
theory has elements
but they are not always well defined.
discussed,
For example,
the theory folds expectancy
and
time into the single concept of press. The issue
individual
ment
limitations
tive employment.
At the highest
der which
may
does
not
consider
ex
we
that
recognize
measure
relevant,
still preclude
their effec
level of complexity
the previous
theories
all
is TMT, un
are nested.
for explaining
situa
theory is appropriate
tions where expectancy,
value, and time all af
fect decision making
and are all
simultaneously
This
not optimal
adequate
although
decisions
based on limited input and processing
(i.e., we satisfice rather than maximize).
Subjec
norma
tive expected
utility theory is partially
we
the
since
is
that
take a
tive,
assumption
coeconomics,
pectancy
An Example
for explanation.
of TMT
a prototypical
motivational
Procrastination,
that occurs in at least
problem, is a phenomenon
95 percent of the population
and chronically
in
15 to 20 percent of adults and in
approximately
33 to 50 percent of students
It
(Steel, in press).
also appears
that oniy TMT can account
for its
review in
empirical
findings. As meta-analytic
dicates
(Steel, in press), the strongest correlates
are
with procrastination
task characteristics
and
individual-difference
expectancy
value
(e.g.,
(e.g.,
need
to
variables
related
task
self-efficacy,
difficulty),
for achievement,
task
aversive
to delay
ness), and sensitivity
(e.g., impulsive
ness, temporal distance).
A viable
theory must
contain variables
that address all three of these
at both an individual
elements
and situational
does this, no other theory
a variety of other re
Furthermore,
sults support
the TMT model.
Procrastinators
demonstrate
for example,
reversal,
preference
consistent with hyperbolic discounting
(see Fig
ure 1). That is, they plan towork but change
their
minds and fail to act on their plans.
level. Since
is feasible.
TMT alone
900
Academy
of Management
Although
resulting in reduced performance.
written assignment
is given at the beginning
a semester,
the student often ignores it until
or even
of
the
and
and
other temptations
are
readily
there is
intrinsically
enjoyable;
in their pursuit or their rewards. Also,
are
of socializing
the aversive
consequences
an
creates
in
them
distant. Although
indulging
we
can
fore
of
work,
usually
backlog
oppressive
stall
Utility Estimation
Versus Writing an Essay over
Graph
confronting
the consequence
until much
later.
three college
Consider
students, Anne, Betty,
an essay at
and Colin, who have been assigned
on September
15. The
the start of a semester,
is due on December
15, at the end of the
essay
course. All the students like to socialize
but hate
to be overly stressed, and, conversely,
they hate
There are
to write but like to get good grades.
in other motivational
differences
elements, how
ever. Betty finds good grades
less im
somewhat
than Anne and Colin
(i.e., she has a
portant
for
Students'
Socializing
of a Semester
Course
the
15
200
- -
150
100
Desire
Desire
? ? Desire
? ? Desire
to socialize
to study?Ann
to study?Betty
to study?Colin
50
Utility
November
29 -
-50
December
-100
Sept. 15
Oct. 8
Oct. 31
for many
cial activities
available
no delay
FIGURE 4
there is no delay
students;
a pun
in itand experiencing
engaging
ishment. The reward of achievement,
however,
itmay not be felt until the
is relatively distant;
even later, when
end of the semester, or perhaps
are
the matter, so
To
compound
posted.
grades
October
of Three
the
days.
this is not surprising.
spective,
course
As TMT predicts, we pursue whatever
action
has
level
of
the highest
of
utility. Writing
an essay paper is often an intrinsically aversive
activity
between
Review
Nov. 23
Dec.
16
Time
semester, although
positive compo
socializing's
nent is still temporally unchanged,
its negative
is more
di
proximate,
component
temporally
liked
if any of the students
ples. For instance,
less, they would
likely start writing
socializing
that self
this highlights
earlier.
Importantly,
regulatory failure occurs for a plethora of possi
in self-efficacy,
task aver
bilities. Differences
and
the proximity of
impulsiveness,
be
temptations all can create similar observed
we
can diagnose
root
these
havior.
Unless
causes
the effec
instead of just the symptoms,
intervention must
tiveness of any motivational
siveness,
typically be suboptimal.
we
discussed
we
the advantages
highlighted
tegrative approach,
fits. First, an integrative theory should
of an
in
three bene
provide
components
extremely
to investigate
topics from an
of
fields. For
variety
complex
of TMT
wide
dis
prospect
theory and
temporal
to
addictive
behav
counting have been applied
ior, attention deficit/hyperactivity
disorder, con
sumer behavior,
health
choices,
job search,
example,
soil conversation,
strategic
military deterrence,
risk behavior,
and work
project management,
violence
Laneri,
(e.g., Barkley, Edwards,
place
Fletcher, & Metevia,
2002; Be
2001; Baumeister,
1996; Das &
rejikian, 2002; Bleichrodt & Gafni,
&
2001;
2005; Fred
Paserman,
Teng,
DellaVigna
erick et al, 2002; Glasner,
2003; Glomb, Steel, &
Arvey, 2002; Hall & Fong, 2003; Krusell, Kuru??u,
& Smith, 2000; Petry, 2001; Rachlin,
2000; Thaler,
used
1991; Yesuf, 2003). Also, here we ourselves
TMT to account
for all the observed
findings
For each
evidence
discuss
research
indicat
job design,
reviewing
are
we
that
time
and
value
factors.
Third,
ing
consider
stock market
where
both
behavior,
ap
prospect
theory and temporal discounting
to
in effect. Finally, we examine
be
pear
goal
setting, which
TMT.
potentially
exhibits
all aspects
of
(see Figure
1) and how it is implicitly antici
in many political
insti
and
counteracted
pated
tutions. He states:
or under the influence of
some
immediate
deviate
temptation,
from prudent
do things he will
as
such
uals,
assembly,
behavior
are
plans
an
formed
individual
voters
no
less
prone
can
or
in advance
of individ
of a
to such
political
irrational
(1992: 39-40).
is lim
Part of this precommitment
to so as to
iting rules that we bind ourselves
avoid later regrettable actions. Another precom
is creating a bicameral
mitment
system, where
decision making must pass
through two cham
the electorate,
bers representing
such as a con
on the Or
(JointCommittee
gress and a senate
of Congress,
the
1993). Retelling
ganization
"saucer anecdote"
of George Washington
helps
to illustrate the wisdom
of this built-in delaying
In a conversation
mechanism.
between Thomas
Jefferson and Washington,
Jefferson asked why
a senate should be established.
"Why," Wash
359). Other
In Canada,
house
countries
the Senate
of sober
second
thought."
is the
this political
Supplementing
analysis
issue of the central bank. Central
are
banks
to
times
at
increase
the
money supply
tempted
Group
Behavior
individual-level
Many
decision-making
are equally
and biases
ries, heuristics,
for describing
group behavior
priate
theo
appro
(Pious,
to be true of TMT. In an
1993). This also appears
intriguing chapter, Elster (1992) examines
pref
erence reversal created by temporal discounting
2000: 1).
in the management
arena,
However,
team research has adopted
a "punctuated
librium" model,
championed
by Gersick
This model
suggests
most
equi
(1991).
that team performance
is
902
of Management
Academy
a
life
is
a useful
to
evolutionary model and does appear
and strate
reflect some forms of organizational
gic development
1994), hyperbolic
describe
group
& Tushman,
(e.g., Romanelli
to better
appears
discounting
performance.
Specifically,
note
and Giambatista
Waller,
Zellmer-Bruhn,
in
indicate a "curvilinear
studies
that several
crease
in the rate of performance
of task perfor
over allotted work time" (2002: 1047).
In addition, we reanalyzed
the published
data
from Gersick's
Bordia, and
(1989) and Chang,
time statements,
Duck's
(2003) work on teams'
mance
2001).
JobDesign
is intrinsically related to selection.
Job design
a person
for the job, we
of selecting
Instead
ef
the
for
the
person.
Historically,
redesign
job
on
have
forts to redesign
focused
simplifi
jobs
cation, as exemplified
by Fredrick Taylor. Unfor
have a strong tendency
jobs
tunately, Taylorized
to improve performance
FIGURE 5
That Work Pace/Time
Graph Demonstrating
over the Course
of a Group Project
Statements
Are Not Linear But Curvilinear,
Reflecting
Hyperbolic
Cumulative
Review
October
rebellion
considerable
satisfaction,
causing
when
first implemented.
Taylor himself was
as "a soulless
slave driver, out to
characterized
health and rob him of
destroy the workingman's
his manhood"
1997: 1), a vilification
(Kanigel,
that reached
such an extent
House
of Representatives
to investigate
committee
systems of management.
job simpli
Ultimately,
fication was made
palatable
by vastly increas
sometimes
up to 100 percent when
ing wages,
first implemented
(Taylor, 1911).
has
However,
job simplification
cannot always
be increased
Wages
its
limits.
(especially
motivation
is
with
work
global
competition),
and
diminished
by job simplification,
is a worthy
satisfaction
improving employees'
usually
in itself. Consequently,
and
improving motivation
goal
theories
satisfaction
focused on
were de
veloped.
Motivation-hygiene
theory (Herzberg,
1966) and job characteristic
theory (Hackman &
Parker and
Oldman,
1976) are two examples.
(2001) review demonstrates
of these theories aspects'
confirmed, they were
empirically
Wall's
several
both
that, despite
failure to be
still important
that tasks can
emphasizing
developments,
to be rewarding and that indi
be better shaped
vidual
differences
will affect how rewarding
these tasks will be.
TMT indicates
novel ways we can build on
this past work. As the literature summarized
we are not blank
slates. We
indicates,
with definite
tendencies.
The challenge
that is
then becomes
how to design a workplace
commensurate
with our motivational
heritage.
this would
result in intrinsically plea
Ideally,
we would
to do
tasks?tasks
choose
surable
even in the absence
of financial compensation.
As a step toward this goal, we should attempt to
here
come
our tendency
to
that recognize
settings
tasks that
undervalue
the future and to develop
satisfy our basic needs. This has yet to be done.
build
indi
To begin with, hyperbolic
discounting
in frivolous but
cates we are likely to indulge
activities
if they are easily
enjoyable workplace
Discounting
obtainable.
job design stud
Presently, however,
ies do not consider whether
tempting but infe
rior courses of actions are too readily available.
the internet and email are almost
For example,
it is not
and, consequently,
instantly accessible,
are
also influential facilita
that they
surprising
time
statements
Start
?
Project
time
Finish
Dunnette
calls "the two worlds of human behav
ioral taxonomies"
chal
(1976: 477), a perpetual
our
for
field.
Schmitt
and
Robertson
(1990)
lenge
in virtu
reflect that this goal has been repeated
review. Even Parker and
every selection
more
in
recent chapter on work
their
note,
that
of individual
differ
design,
"knowledge
ences as contingencies
is scant" (2001: 96).
ally
Wall
result
or perhaps
ployee
only a few. The remaining
needs must be met in other ways, perhaps
by
or daydream
ineffective socializing,
doodling,
when
ing. Consequently,
if strong needs
the job's confines
mining
within
tant. Previous
very impor
and Green
by Schneider
and Blanton
(1996) indicate
can detrimentally
affect per
reviews
Stock Market
in accordance
with prospect
theory
it appears
that the
and, thus, TMT. However,
to temporal dis
stock market is also vulnerable
risk averse,
counting.
Specifically,
disproportionate
nomic developments"
1991: 259). Al
(Thaler,
though De Bondt and Thaler interpret this effect
and Tver
primarily as an instance of Kahneman
heuristic, from a TMT
sky's (1979) representative
to be an excellent
it also appears
of temporal discounting.
the effect of bad news. Unlike antic
Consider
ipated problems, sudden and surprising news of
in
misfortune
suggests an impending downturn
perspective
indication
overvalue
this imminent loss and will oversell
to minimize
it. The stock price will plunge past
it actually becomes
the optimal point, to where
more rational
to buy, given
its expected
long
term performance.
This overreaction
is formally
in the investment
called
exploited
technique
of
the
Dow"
stock
Also,
1991).
"Dogs
(O'Higgins,
seem
an
to
be
programs
repurchasing
explicit
to manage
(Sanders
sightedness
attempt
Goal
such
shareholder
& Carpenter,
short
2003).
Setting
Behavior
tional exuberance."
most part, concluded
in nature.
new hypotheses
two of its
suggests
regarding
moderators:
Im
goal difficulty and proximity.
cannot be
these novel predictions
portantly,
on the basis of previous
made
to ex
attempts
1998;
goal setting (e.g., Carver & Scheier,
& Slowik,
2004; Locke & Latham,
2002;
Raynor & Entin, 1982).
can be
The effectiveness
of goal
setting
two
of
TMT:
the
aspects
largely explained
by
plain
Fried
of diminishing
returns (see Figure 2)
principle
and
(see Figure
1). Any
temporal discounting
into several
division
of a project
smaller and
more
to take ad
immediate
appears
subgoals
two
of
these
As mentioned,
elements.
vantage
904 Academy
of Management
a curvilinear
relationship
assessment.
Substantial
di
objective
of large goals may result in a series of
perceived
to a more
visions
value
than
al
quickly.
This state of affairs presents a potent motiva
tional opportunity. Research
has shown that the
situations
of
affects
decision
parsing
making.
For example, Rachlin
how gam
(2000) discusses
is influenced by whether people
bling behavior
consider a period of betting as several
individ
ual bets or as a single gambling
session.6
By
a large project into smaller goals,
subdividing
the sum
whole
is likely to supercede
competing
in Figure
effect
6,
options?an
exemplified
a person
to finish a
where
has ninety days
toward a goal occur only if its
project. Actions
drive or utility exceeds
that of other pursuits?
of action
it
total of thirty days. Without
setting,
goal
would be only fifteen.
There are also several moderators
that affect
the effectiveness
of goal
setting. TMT makes
the interplay be
regarding
specific hypotheses
tween two of these: goal difficulty and goal
goal
TMT
As
understood,
increasing
already
to
increase
motivation.
In
tends
difficulty
Increased
terms, this effect is due to value.
arises
from achieving
the diffi
than the easy
1997). Also,
(Bandura,
of challenging
the achievement
goals may be
come associated
with rewarding outcomes,
thus
self-satisfaction
cult rather
reinforcer
itself (Eisen
becoming
secondary
is proximity,
other
moderator
The
berger, 1992).
since increasing
the proximity of a goal tends to
See
also
Dawes'
FIGURE 6
(1998) summary
of sunk
costs.
Graph
90
80
70
60
50
best
inter
each
for achievement,
satisfy one's need
mediate
satiates.
step also
temporarily
Impor
can be completed
tantly, these smaller subgoals
them to be realized more
sequentially,
allowing
proximity.
October
has
each valued
subgoals,
only slightly less
whole.
For example,
that of the original
of an entire project may
though completion
course
Review
Utility
- Background
temptations
? ?; No
goal setting
Goal
setting
40
30
20
10
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
Time
increase
motivation.
Latham
and
Although
that proximity affects performance
"additional
information"
by providing
specific
a supporting explana
(1999: 422), TMT suggests
tion: temporal discounting.
Distal goals are sub
of
stantially delayed,
reducing the effectiveness
Seijts
argue
and value.
expectancy
should
There
be motivational
tension be
tween goal difficulty and proximity. By dividing
a large goal
into variously
spaced
subgoals,
each
to achieve
and,
may be easier
subgoal
there is
thus, less satisfying.
Consequently,
where
the further subdivi
likely a breakpoint
individuals
should be
Specifically,
impulsive
more motivated
It would
be best
by proximity.
for them to have more
frequent but smaller
those with a higher need for
goals. Conversely,
will more likely attend to goal dif
Their
motivation
should be maximized
ficulty.
by less frequent but harder goals. By attending
to individual
such as
differences
these, TMT
strat
should allow us to provide a goal-setting
a
to
tailored
rather
than
egy
specific person,
achievement
making
us
rely on general
heuristics
(e.g., goal
this should
difficulty, proximity).
Importantly,
in goal-setting
lead to a dramatic
improvement
the
of
duration
power, increasing
any goal's mo
tivational
dominance.
Of note, there are still other insights that TMT
can provide
for goal setting, further demonstrat
there are
motivational
for
systems
to
then itmay be preferable
gains,
outcomes
both the positive
for suc
emphasize
a goal and the penalties
for
cessfully achieving
losses
and
separate
failure. Assessing
which system
an individual
indicates whether
be stressed.
should
in
is dominant
losses or gains
FUTURE RESEARCH
Aside
from improving scientific communica
tion and hypothesis
there are sev
generation,
criteria
and
for
eral qualitative
quantitative
evaluation
(Myung, Pit, & Kim, 2004). A
should plausibly
observed
find
explain
(i.e., reflect
ings, it should be understandable
it should be falsifiable
established
constructs),
model
model
its predictions
and
(i.e., may be validated),
fit the observed
should
data
of
(i.e., "goodness
fit"). TMT, by the very nature of its construction,
researchers?more
by many
recently by
(1992). Its discounting
Tversky and Kahneman
function is the culmination
of extensive and var
as
ied investigations,
summarized
by Ainslie
themselves
have been studied
for
(1992). Needs
the better part of a century (e.g., Murray,
1938;
Winter et al., 1998). Consequently,
TMT has al
Also, adding
ready been validated
piecemeal.
extra adjustable
im
will invariably
parameters
fit to some degree
(Forster, 2000). TMT
prove
should account
for any observed
data better
than any of its component
theories. Still, there
are two other standards
to consider.
Part of model development
is not only to have
of fitbut to do it parsimoniously.
Con
ev
most
model
indices
for
sequently,
penalize
Akaike
Information
ery extra parameter
(e.g.,
is not desir
Criterion; AIC). Undue
complexity
to be formally shown that
able, and it remains
goodness
accounts
the full TMT model
for significantly
more variance.
it
not enough
is
for
Furthermore,
to be rarely useful. If it is to
the full TMT model
have
value
beyond
aiding
scientific
communi
cation
and
hypothesis
generalizable,
showing
riety of situations. Future
on evaluating
when and
it must be
generation,
in a va
merit
repeated
ducted. We
should
also
these
puter simulations.
Although
rarely used,
venues have the advantage
of potentially being
more
more complexity
realistic
and allowing
while
research
control
of key vari
retaining
are also
Their nature and advantages
ables.
further reviewed
Model
Testing:
below.
Simplicity
Versus
Complexity
of model
testing are extensive and
the
of
scope
any
paper except a dedi
beyond
cated review (e.g., Myung et al., 2004; Navarro &
the accurate
2005). Briefly, it requires
Myung,
measurement
of the observed behavior, as well
as the constructs that are thought to give rise to
The details
the behavior
To
(i.e., specified
by the model).
we
measure
to
evaluate
would
need
then
TMT,
performance,
along with both individual and ex
variables
that reflect expectancy,
perimental
value, and delay forboth losses and gains. With
this data, we could compare
competing models
using a choice of indices, ones taking into ac
count
Akaike
perior
sets
both parsimony
and completeness
or Bayesian
information criterion).
results are again
(i.e.,
obtained
cross-validation),
(e.g.,
If su
in related data
the model
is general
izable.
that prevents
these fundamental
ever
in concert. Con
from
components
operating
situations
for
where
there is
sequently,
complex
an assortment
of options, considered
by a di
verse sampling
of people, more of TMT's ele
906 Academy
of Management
it should be appli
variety of topics where
The incremental variance potentially pro
vided by TMT will depend on what topic is being
and what
theory it is being com
investigated
wide
cable.
Review
October
variables
models.
(e.g.,
ing model
the
should be. Naturally,
greater TMT's value
converse
should also be true.
that TMT occasionally
It is possible,
however,
models.
or negative
side of
the avoidance
Specifically,
our nature appears
to be less than unitary. For
research, optimism appears
expectancy-related
as three factors: opti
to be better understood
(i.e., animal
research) and
parative
psychology
"casino"
where
and
situations,
expectancy
in
value were
expressed
explicitly,
typically
terms of ratios, dollars,
and deaths.
Unfortu
these situations
give a great
nately, although
deal of control, their limited realism and com
?vila,
nam,
Molt?,
2001; Whiteside
& Caseras,
& Ly
styles for
(persistence).
cognitive uncertainty
From a broader
perspective,
Raghunathan
differences
and Pham
(1999) note substantive
and
of
sadness
the influences
between
anxiety
on decision making.
(1999), in
Similarly, Krueger
an examination
found that
of mental disorders,
a three-factor model
comorbidity.
explained
were best
fear and anxiety-misery
Specifically,
a
as
two
of
subfactors
understood
high-order
recent neuropsy
factor. Finally,
of
the presence
reviews do indicate
chological
other systems (Gray & McNaughton,
1996; Lang,
&
1997; Rothbart, Ahadi,
Bradley, & Cuthbert,
Evans, 2000), such as fight-or-flight. Also, differ
internalizing
the
functions, which our motivational
tend to employ separate
ories ultimately model,
as well as common components,
truly
making
an
fiction
factors
inevitable
orthogonal
ent brain
(Damasio,
1994).
of whether
Regardless
mine ifTMT is too complex
is to deter
the goal
or too simple, it is an
ap
empirical matter and the same methodology
the relevant
plies. We must accurately measure
New
Research
Venues
their generalizability
(Ba
suspect
plexity makes
we
recommend
zerman,
2001). Consequently,
a com
that two other venues also be considered:
instruction
of
and
system
personal
puterized
computer simulations.
traditional methodologies
Since
criticized as potentially
unrealistic,
been
a movement
have
been
there has
toward naturalistic
decision
research
making
(K?hberger, Schulte-Mecklen
&
like to
beck,
Perner, 2002). Ideally, we would
to TMT on a wide range
test further refinements
of people who are striving at their own pace
toward an important goal in a standardized
but
realistic setting where we can precisely but eas
their behavior.
this is a
Although
ily measure
there is at least one
long list of specifications,
venue
all
these fea
that presently
provides
tures?a
system of in
personal
computerized
struction (C-PSI).
or pro
of instructions
A personal
system
learning
grammed
but a computerized
has been
version
in use
has
for decades,
several
desired
assignments
administered
adapted
Kanfer-Ackerman
Task;
cf.
is the
research
construction
of computer
simulations.
Recent
us
in parallel
advances
computing are allowing
traffic (Pursula,
1999) and market behavior
(Janssen & Jager, 2001), as well as several orga
science
nizational
topics (Hulin, Miner, & Seitz,
as
Lauded
the
"Third Scientific Discipline"
2002).
commonalities.
idating
more
progress
rapidly by
from different disciplines.
one hand,
the extremely
Our
science
would
the findings
sharing
on the
For example,
time
well-supported
or explanation
tle or no prediction
of human
behavior. During the 1970s, this was a plausible
even within psychology
and popular
position,
as Caplan
1973). However,
(2003)
(e.g., Mischel,
our
outlines,
empirical
findings over the last
that it is increasingly
quarter century indicate
tomaintain
outlandish
such a belief.
TMT addresses
such dysfunctional
separation
by unifying insights
ories of motivation.
definitive
model
human
from several
Importantly,
for every aspect of
accounting
but it does provide a common
behavior,
framework of essential
extensive
different the
this is not a
features.
Using
from individual
contributions
it, the
disci
such as compensation
systems or
incor
job design. Already, a rudimentary model
the notion of needs, satiation, and tem
porating
exists. It is the The Sims, the
poral discounting
most popular
computer game of all time, based
on the principles
of consumer and evolutionary
the foundation
for a new
ing, TMT will provide
to
of simulators
that can be used
generation
in
initially test a wide variety of motivational
terventions,
psychology
2002).7
how
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He
his
from the
Ph.D.
of
School
of
Business.
received
versity
Haskayne
Calgary's
of Minnesota's
program. He continues
industrial/organizational
psychology
University
as well as synthetic validity, a half-century-old
to research
endeavor
procrastination
Piers
Steel
to create
a universal
and
automated
selection
system.
in the work
is a faculty member
J.K?nig
(c.koenig@psychologie.unizh.ch)
Institut, Universit?t
Z?rich,
group at Psychologisches
organizational
psychology
in psychology
his Ph.D.
from Philipps-Universit?t
He received
Switzerland.
Marburg,
time management,
include
His research
interests
multitasking,
personnel
Germany.
Cornelius
and
selection,
and
job insecurity.
of self