Toplines

UMass Amherst/WBZ Poll of MA Registered/Likely Voters

Field Dates:
Sample:

September 15 - September 20, 2016

800 Registered Voters in Massachusetts
700 Likely Voters
Margin of Error: 4.1% for Registered Voters
4.3% for Likely Voters
YouGov interviewed 837 respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 800 to produce
the final dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race,
education, party identification, ideology, and political interest. The frame was constructed by
stratified sampling from the full 2012 American Community Survey (ACS) sample with selection
within strata by weighted sampling with replacements (using the person weights on the public use
file). Data on voter registration status and turnout were matched to this frame using the
November 2012 Current Population Survey. Data on interest in politics and party identification
were then matched to this frame from the 2007 Pew Religious Life Survey.
The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched
cases and the frame were combined and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the
frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, and
ideology. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the
frame and post-stratified according to these deciles.
All figures presented in this document are for registered adults unless otherwise noted.

UMass Poll Directors/Fellows

Brian F. Schaner, Ph.D.
Director
Raymond La Raja, Ph.D.
Associate Director
Tatishe Nteta, Ph.D.
Associate Director
Mia Costa
Research Fellow
Kaylee Johnson
Research Fellow

schane@polsci.umass.edu
laraja@polsci.umass.edu
nteta@polsci.umass.edu
micosta@polsci.umass.edu
ktjohnson@polsci.umass.edu

poll@polsci.umass.edu - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll

If the presidential election were being held today, which candidate would you vote for?
If answered not sure then follow up question was Who would you say you are leaning
towards voting for?

Clinton
Trump
Johnson
Stein
Other
Not sure

Likely Voters
W/o Leaners W/ Leaners
46
47
33
34
8
9
2
3
2
3
9
5

Registered Voters
W/o Leaners W/ Leaners
42
44
31
33
9
10
2
3
2
3
13
9

Among Trump Supporters:

Is your vote for Donald Trump more of a vote in support of Trump or against Hillary
Clinton?
In support of Trump
Against Clinton

Likely Voters
57
43

Registered Voters
55
45

Among Clinton Supporters

Is your vote for Hillary Clinton more of a vote in support of Clinton or against Donald
Trump?
Likely Voters
In support of Clinton
61
Against Trump
39

Registered Voters
61
40

poll@polsci.umass.edu - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll

There will be four questions on the ballot in November. If the election were held today,
how would you vote on each of the following? If answered not sure then follow up
question was How would you say you are leaning towards voting?
Question 1 would allow the state Gaming Commission to issue one additional category 2
license, which would permit operation of a gaming establishment with no table games and
not more than 1,250 slot machines.

Yes
No
Not Sure

Likely Voters
W/o Leaners W/ Leaners
44
50
35
40
22
10

Registered Voters
W/o Leaners W/ Leaners
44
51
32
38
24
12

Question 2 would allow the state Board of Elementary and Secondary Education to approve
up to 12 new charter schools or enrollment expansions in existing charter schools each year.

Yes
No
Not Sure

Likely Voters
W/o Leaners W/ Leaners
49
52
39
41
12
6

Registered Voters
W/o Leaners W/ Leaners
48
52
37
40
15
9

Question 3 would prohibit any farm owner or operator from knowingly confining any
breeding pig, calf raised for veal, or egg-laying hen in a way that prevents the animal from
lying down, standing up, fully extending its limbs, or turning around freely.

Yes
No
Not Sure

Likely Voters
W/o Leaners W/ Leaners
75
78
14
16
11
6

Registered Voters
W/o Leaners W/ Leaners
72
76
15
17
12
7

Question 4 would permit the possession, use, distribution, and cultivation of marijuana in
limited amounts by persons age 21 and older and would remove criminal penalties for such
activities.

Yes
No
Not Sure

Likely Voters
W/o Leaners W/ Leaners
53
55
40
42
7
3

Registered Voters
W/o Leaners W/ Leaners
51
54
40
42
9
4

poll@polsci.umass.edu - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll

All remaining results are for all registered voters.

In a few words, please explain why you oppose legalizing marijuana in Massachusetts.
Asked if R opposes Question 4. Coded for the first reason mentioned.
Hurts individuals and society
36
Its a gateway drug
14
Increases crime/dangerous
10
Its addictive and dangerous
9
Medical use ok, but not recreational 7
Its illegal and needs to be policed
6
Bad for young people
5
In a few words, please explain why you support legalizing marijuana in Massachusetts.
Asked if R supports Question 4. Coded for the first reason mentioned.
Not as dangerous as other drugs
30
Enforcement is expensive and problematic
19
It has medical benefits
15
Need better regulation and tax revenue
13
Its a personal choice/people will do it anyway 11
Other
12
If marijuana were legal, would any of the following bother you?
People using marijuana in public
Advertisements for marijuana on television, radio, or billboards.
A store or business selling marijuana opening up in your neighborhood
People growing up to 12 marijuana plants in their own homes
People using marijuana in their own homes

Would bother
61
52
41
24
11

If marijuana were legal, how often do you think you would use it?
More than once a week
Once a week
Once or twice a month
A few times a year
Seldom
Never
Not sure

10
3
4
4
9
64
7

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Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel
things have gotten pretty seriously o on the wrong track?
Right Direction
Wrong track
Not sure

18
64
18

Do you think things in Massachusetts are generally going in the right direction or do you
feel things have gotten pretty seriously o on the wrong track?
Right Direction
Wrong track
Not sure

37
40
23

Do you approve or disapprove of the way each is doing their job?

President Barack Obama

Governor Charlie Baker
Senator Elizabeth Warren
Senator Edward Markey
Atty. General Maura Healey
Mayor Marty Walsh

Strongly
approve
24
15
23
12
11
13

Somewhat Somewhat
approve
disapprove
28
10
48
17
23
11
28
14
28
15
38
14

Strongly
disapprove Not sure
35
3
6
15
32
12
20
26
18
29
12
23

What is your opinion of the following individuals?

Very
favorable
Hillary Clinton
19
Donald Trump
15
President Barack Obama
29
Governor Charlie Baker
18
Senator Elizabeth Warren
23
Senator Edward Markey
12
Atty. General Maura Healey
12
Mayor Marty Walsh
13
Former Governor Deval Patrick
17

Somewhat
favorable
22
16
22
45
23
28
28
40
29

Somewhat
unfavorable
13
12
11
18
10
13
12
13
17

Very
unfavorable
43
54
35
6
33
20
16
11
27

poll@polsci.umass.edu - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll

Not sure
3
3
3
14
11
27
32
23
11

What one word would you use to describe the following individuals?

Hillary Clinton

Donald Trump

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What one word would you use to describe the following individuals?

Charlie Baker

Elizabeth Warren

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In a word or two, what do you think is the most important issue facing Massachusetts?
Economy/jobs
28
Healthcare
12
Taxes
8
Federal deficit/govt spending
8
Immigration
6
Education
6
Crime/Violence
5
Govt ethics
4
Electing the right people to office 4
Infrastructure
3
Social issues
3
Income inequality
3
Environment/climate change
3
Guns
1
Other
6

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Thinking back on Governor Bakers past two years in office, would you say that
Massachusetts is better o or worse o than it was before?
Better o than before
About the same
Worse o than before
Not Sure

27
55
10
8

Do you happen to know whether Governor Charlie Baker has endorsed Republican
presidential nominee Donald Trump?
Yes, Baker has endorsed Trump
No, Baker has not endorsed Trump
Not sure

2
48
50

How likely do you think it is that Governor Charlie Baker will vote for Donald Trump?
Very likely
3
Somewhat likely
15
Somewhat unlikely 19
Very unlikely
26
Not sure
37

When it comes to the positions they hold on important issues, would you say that Charlie
Baker and Donald Trump are...?
Very similar
1
Mostly similar
15
Mostly dierent 29
Very dierent
23
Not sure
33

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2018 Potential Matchups

In 2018, Republican Governor Charlie Baker will be up for re-election. If Baker was
running against [CANDIDATE NAME] in the election for governor, who would you be
most likely to vote for?
Each respondent was asked about three pairings. Candidates were described by title, name
and party. N is approximately 400 registered voters for each matchup.
Baker
39
Katherine Clark 24
Not sure
31
Would not vote
5

Baker
40
Setti Warren
17
Not sure
36
Would not vote 7

Baker
Maura Healey
Not sure
Would not vote

Baker
Marty Walsh
Not sure
Would not vote

Baker
39
Seth Moulton
21
Not sure
34
Would not vote 6

Baker
33
Joe Kennedy III 33
Not sure
29
Would not vote
6

37
28
32
4

43
25
29
4

In 2018, Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren will be up for re-election. If Warren was
running against [CANDIDATE NAME] in the election for senator, who would you be most
likely to vote for?
Each respondent was asked about three pairings. Candidates were described by title, name
and party. N is approximately 450 registered voters for each matchup.
Warren
47
Curt Schilling
28
Not sure
16
Would not vote 9

Warren
44
Mitt Romney
31
Not sure
15
Would not vote 10

Warren
39
Richard Tisei
32
Not sure
26
Would not vote 3

Warren
40
Karyn Polito
36
Not sure
19
Would not vote 5

Warren
40
William Weld
37
Not sure
16
Would not vote 8

poll@polsci.umass.edu - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll

10

Sample Demographics
Gender
Age

Education

Party ID

Ideology

Income

Category
Male
Female
18-29
30-54
55+
HS or less
Some college
College degree
Postgraduate
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
< $40k
$40 - $100k
> $100k

Registered Voters
46%
54%
18%
43%
39%
31%
19%
33%
18%
33%
12%
54%
22%
40%
29%
33%
47%
20%

Likely Voters
44%
56%
16%
42%
42%
28%
19%
34%
20%
35%
12%
53%
24%
38%
31%
32%
47%
21%

poll@polsci.umass.edu - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll

11