This spreadsheet supports STUDENT analysis of the case "Panera Bread Company" (UVAF-1575).

This spreadsheet was prepared by Marc Lipson, Associate Professor of Business Administration. Copyright 2009 by the University of
Virginia Darden School Foundation, Charlottesville, VA. All rights reserved. For customer service inquiries, send an e-mail
tosales@dardenbusinesspublishing.com. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, posted to the Internet,
or transmitted in any form or by any meanselectronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwisewithout the permission of the
Darden School Foundation.
Rev. Jun. 21, 2012

Exhibit 1
PANERA BREAD COMPANY
Historic Income Statements
(n thousands of dollars)

2003

2004

2005

2006

602

741

877

1,027

363,702

479,139

640,275

828,971

210,822
54,967
18,304
31,502
315,595

288,706
65,627
25,298
38,735
418,366

399,760
75,036
33,011
50,240
558,047

542,916
85,618
44,166
63,502
736,202

Operating Profit (EBIT)

48,107

60,773

82,228

92,769

Interest Expense
Pretax Profit
Tax
Net Income

48
48,059
17,629
30,430

18
60,755
22,175
38,580

50
82,178
29,995
52,183

92
92,677
33,827
58,850

Number of Bakery Cafs(a)

Revenue
Costs of Goods Sold
Bakery Caf
Dough Sold to Franchisees
Depreciation
General and Administrative (b)

(a) Including both company-owned and franchised bakery cafs

(b) Includes pre-opening expenses and other expenses
Data source: Panera Bread Company annual reports, 200306.

Exhibit 2
PANERA BREAD COMPANY
Historic Balance Sheets
(in thousands of dollars)

Historic Balance Sheets:

2003

2004

2005

2006

51,421
12,394
4,350
3,887
72,052

58,054
17,256
5,398
3,905
84,613

60,651
25,158
7,358
9,607
102,774

72,122
30,919
8,714
15,863
127,618

Property, Plant and Equipment

Goodwill and Other Assets

146,362
38,421

201,725
38,334

268,809
66,084

345,977
69,014

Total Assets

256,835

324,672

437,667

542,609

Accounts Payable
Acrued Expenses and Deferred Revenue
Current Liabilities

8,072
37,571
45,643

5,840
49,865
55,705

4,422
82,443
86,865

5,800
103,810
109,610

Deferred Rent and Other Liabilities

Total Liabilities

13,616
59,259

27,604
83,309

33,824
120,689

35,333
144,943

197,576
256,835

241,363
324,672

316,978
437,667

397,666
542,609

Cash and Short Term Investments

Accounts Receivable
Inventory
Prepaid Expenses and Deferred Taxes
Current Assets

Equity

Data source: Panera Bread Company annual reports, 200306.

Exhibit 1
PANERA BREAD COMPANY
2007 Operating Forecast(a)
(in thousands of dollars)
Number of Bakery-Cafes(b)
Revenue
Costs of Goods Sold
Bakery Caf
Dough Sold to Franchisees
Depreciation
General and Administrative (c)

1,230
1,050,000

738,000
86,000
60,000
78,000
962,000

Operating Profit (EBIT)

88,000

Interest Expense
Pretax Profit
Tax
Net Income

150
87,850
31,500
56,350

Current Assets
Property, Plant, and Equipment
Goodwill and Other Assets
Total Assets

150,000
430,000
110,000
690,000

Current Liabilities
Deferred Rent and Other Liabilities
Total Liabilities

130,000
45,000
175,000

(a) Case writer estimate based on history and third-quarter results.

(b) Including both company-owned and franchised bakery cafs
(c) Includes pre-opening expenses and other expenses

Panera Stock Price and Volume

6/1/2006
6/2/2006
6/5/2006
6/6/2006
6/7/2006
6/8/2006
6/9/2006
6/12/2006
6/13/2006
6/14/2006
6/15/2006
6/16/2006
6/19/2006
6/20/2006
6/21/2006
6/22/2006
6/23/2006
6/26/2006
6/27/2006
6/28/2006
6/29/2006
6/30/2006
7/3/2006
7/4/2006
7/5/2006
7/6/2006
7/7/2006
7/10/2006
7/11/2006
7/12/2006
7/13/2006
7/14/2006
7/17/2006
7/18/2006
7/19/2006
7/20/2006
7/21/2006
7/24/2006
7/25/2006
7/26/2006
7/27/2006
7/28/2006
7/31/2006
8/1/2006
8/2/2006
8/3/2006
8/4/2006
8/7/2006
8/8/2006
8/9/2006
8/10/2006
8/11/2006
8/14/2006

Panera StockVolume
65.53
277.1
65.95
358.8
64.62
432.6
64.62
745.8
62.47
1373.1
62.62
794.2
63.04
549
63.18
714.9
62.14
584.1
61.7
427.5
63.83
428.8
63.99
264.9
63.41
555.2
63.42
192.4
64.29
369.2
66.57
1245.8
66.73
396.9
67.5
491.9
67.03
509.5
65.58
748.5
66.87
382.8
67.24
351.7
66.94
86.2
66.94
0
66.37
328.3
65.5
417.9
64.15
359.6
64.83
312.2
64.44
529.1
63.83
476.9
61.25
938.2
62.1
924.9
60.71
1229.8
59.41
861.3
60.01
729.7
58.25
1124.5
57.69
770.5
59.56
906
59.27
754.8
51.93
6267.6
51.53
1469
52.59
1053.8
52.31
660.6
51.45
630.9
51.54
684.5
51.56
673.5
51.5
659.8
50.61
465.2
50.1
467
46.85
1755.4
48.08
1258.8
47.95
426.1
48.26
413.2

Panera Stock Price

8/15/2006
8/16/2006
8/17/2006
8/18/2006
8/21/2006
8/22/2006
8/23/2006
8/24/2006
8/25/2006
8/28/2006
8/29/2006
8/30/2006
8/31/2006
9/1/2006
9/4/2006
9/5/2006
9/6/2006
9/7/2006
9/8/2006
9/11/2006
9/12/2006
9/13/2006
9/14/2006
9/15/2006
9/18/2006
9/19/2006
9/20/2006
9/21/2006
9/22/2006
9/25/2006
9/26/2006
9/27/2006
9/28/2006
9/29/2006
10/2/2006
10/3/2006
10/4/2006
10/5/2006
10/6/2006
10/9/2006
10/10/2006
10/11/2006
10/12/2006
10/13/2006
10/16/2006
10/17/2006
10/18/2006
10/19/2006
10/20/2006
10/23/2006
10/24/2006
10/25/2006
10/26/2006
10/27/2006
10/30/2006
10/31/2006
11/1/2006

49.81
51.96
53.46
52.4
51.39
51.62
51.15
50.12
49.16
50.29
51.9
53.6
51.9
52.88
52.88
54.75
52.03
51.52
52.72
53.35
57.67
56.89
57.46
58.9
58.22
58.09
60.6
60.08
59.03
60.11
60.11
59.57
59.1
58.25
58.17
58.35
64.75
65.68
64.41
66.02
65.19
64.22
67.2
66.8
67.03
66.47
66.9
65.58
64.79
66.01
68.7
64.41
64.33
62.03
61.98
61.8
61.27

962.2
890.7
916.1
641.8
572.7
532.9
531.5
856.1
578.7
701
862.2
901.5
1038.7
491.3
0
1403.2
1591.5
1200.3
573.6
748.2
2127.9
857.3
690.3
724
926.8
651.8
946
887
633.9
757.9
504
508.9
655.7
407.7
642.5
774.9
3400.1
1166
730.9
595.9
941.8
813.9
1398.8
849.3
769
571.3
651.1
725.5
620
801.8
1196
4101.2
874.8
1089.2
1411.6
923.5
1157.2

11/2/2006
11/3/2006
11/6/2006
11/7/2006
11/8/2006
11/9/2006
11/10/2006
11/13/2006
11/14/2006
11/15/2006
11/16/2006
11/17/2006
11/20/2006
11/21/2006
11/22/2006
11/23/2006
11/24/2006
11/27/2006
11/28/2006
11/29/2006
11/30/2006
12/1/2006
12/4/2006
12/5/2006
12/6/2006
12/7/2006
12/8/2006
12/11/2006
12/12/2006
12/13/2006
12/14/2006
12/15/2006
12/18/2006
12/19/2006
12/20/2006
12/21/2006
12/22/2006
12/25/2006
12/26/2006
12/27/2006
12/28/2006
12/29/2006
1/1/2007
1/2/2007
1/3/2007
1/4/2007
1/5/2007
1/8/2007
1/9/2007
1/10/2007
1/11/2007
1/12/2007
1/15/2007
1/16/2007
1/17/2007
1/18/2007
1/19/2007

60.66
59.15
60.83
60.64
61.47
59.99
60.47
59.52
60.58
61.97
61.82
61.58
61.26
60.25
60.87
60.87
60.97
59
58.08
57.6
57.45
56.9
58.68
58.79
56.94
56.7
56.89
56.74
55.63
55.7
55.68
55.97
55.9
55.52
56.08
55.77
55.82
55.82
55.47
56.1
56.47
55.91
55.91
55.91
56.01
56.75
55.95
56.15
57.27
56.79
58.4
57.92
57.92
58.54
57.63
56.38
55.67

974.1
1138.8
813.7
435.4
584.9
529
499.4
758.6
581.3
649.2
508.5
576.1
453.1
1248
568.3
0
115.9
661.7
968.6
1158.9
685.2
1330.7
632.9
786
3162
1556.3
1074.5
689
870
777.1
487.4
682
518.6
505.9
452.9
602.9
272.7
0
370.7
365.2
682.4
429.4
0
0
842.6
847.9
658.2
554.8
818.5
585.9
732.9
567.5
0
394.6
637.1
604.4
613

1/22/2007
1/23/2007
1/24/2007
1/25/2007
1/26/2007
1/29/2007
1/30/2007
1/31/2007
2/1/2007
2/2/2007
2/5/2007
2/6/2007
2/7/2007
2/8/2007
2/9/2007
2/12/2007
2/13/2007
2/14/2007
2/15/2007
2/16/2007
2/19/2007
2/20/2007
2/21/2007
2/22/2007
2/23/2007
2/26/2007
2/27/2007
2/28/2007
3/1/2007
3/2/2007
3/5/2007
3/6/2007
3/7/2007
3/8/2007
3/9/2007
3/12/2007
3/13/2007
3/14/2007
3/15/2007
3/16/2007
3/19/2007
3/20/2007
3/21/2007
3/22/2007
3/23/2007
3/26/2007
3/27/2007
3/28/2007
3/29/2007
3/30/2007
4/2/2007
4/3/2007
4/4/2007
4/5/2007
4/6/2007
4/9/2007
4/10/2007

55.2
54.87
55.11
54.5
53.85
53.15
54.58
58.96
57.93
58.34
57.93
58.55
58.57
58.12
57.4101
57.2
58.4
58.92
59.47
59.91
59.91
61.11
61.97
62.2
62.63
62.23
60
61.23
60.07
59.1
58.13
57.84
58.48
59.29
59.95
60.57
59.46
59.84
59.74
59.1
59.32
59.35
60.42
61.16
61.02
60.77
59.95
58.78
58.76
59.06
59.09
60.22
57.75
57.34
57.34
56.39
56.38

622.9
376.8
446.8
620.6
935.5
1184.3
1146.6
2966.4
1180.9
443.3
359.5
340.6
839.6
752.1
1294
1149.1
845.5
512.4
592.2
1113.5
0
1330.1
980.9
919.3
667.7
705.1
1076.3
1187.7
693.9
533.8
746.4
1021.5
1541.1
1123.8
728.5
444.8
493.1
1008.3
381.1
430.4
425.3
378.9
464.3
404.4
231.1
231.1
340.6
710.6
392.8
336.2
438.7
842.8
2747.4
985
0
927.3
920.8

4/11/2007
4/12/2007
4/13/2007
4/16/2007
4/17/2007
4/18/2007
4/19/2007
4/20/2007
4/23/2007
4/24/2007
4/25/2007
4/26/2007
4/27/2007
4/30/2007
5/1/2007
5/2/2007
5/3/2007
5/4/2007
5/7/2007
5/8/2007
5/9/2007
5/10/2007
5/11/2007
5/14/2007
5/15/2007
5/16/2007
5/17/2007
5/18/2007
5/21/2007
5/22/2007
5/23/2007
5/24/2007
5/25/2007
5/28/2007
5/29/2007
5/30/2007
5/31/2007
6/1/2007
6/4/2007
6/5/2007
6/6/2007
6/7/2007
6/8/2007
6/11/2007
6/12/2007
6/13/2007
6/14/2007
6/15/2007
6/18/2007
6/19/2007
6/20/2007
6/21/2007
6/22/2007
6/25/2007
6/26/2007
6/27/2007
6/28/2007

55.73
55.64
56.03
56.23
55.79
56.05
55.83
56.14
56.25
55.7
59.13
57.45
56.8
55.69
56.1
56.94
56.24
56.24
55.95
56.24
56.3
55.52
56.05
55.65
54.94
55.43
54.99
55.15
55.59
56.62
56.92
56.97
56.67
56.67
56
56.6
56.37
56.73
57.59
58.32
50.28
48.78
49.01
47.85
47.64
48.33
48.29
47.98
47.82
47.15
47.04
46.41
46.69
46.35
46.29
46.65
46.02

894.7
826.1
724.8
835.3
594.9
469.8
299.7
614
590.9
933.9
2897.3
1478
820.8
510.7
787.1
903.4
448.8
389.1
554.8
429.9
379.6
338.9
292.6
466.7
648.5
484
348.8
842.2
505.8
522.5
590.4
597.8
417.9
0
555.9
260.7
256.6
380
445.2
849.5
5000
2703.2
1847.2
1554.6
858.8
864.5
715.7
626.5
708
677.2
719.2
1347.1
1218.7
963.3
751.2
755.5
469.8

6/29/2007
7/2/2007
7/3/2007
7/4/2007
7/5/2007
7/6/2007
7/9/2007
7/10/2007
7/11/2007
7/12/2007
7/13/2007
7/16/2007
7/17/2007
7/18/2007
7/19/2007
7/20/2007
7/23/2007
7/24/2007
7/25/2007
7/26/2007
7/27/2007
7/30/2007
7/31/2007
8/1/2007
8/2/2007
8/3/2007
8/6/2007
8/7/2007
8/8/2007
8/9/2007
8/10/2007
8/13/2007
8/14/2007
8/15/2007
8/16/2007
8/17/2007
8/20/2007
8/21/2007
8/22/2007
8/23/2007
8/24/2007
8/27/2007
8/28/2007
8/29/2007
8/30/2007
8/31/2007
9/3/2007
9/4/2007
9/5/2007
9/6/2007
9/7/2007
9/10/2007
9/11/2007
9/12/2007
9/13/2007
9/14/2007
9/17/2007

46.06
46.02
47.55
47.55
47.68
47.9
47.23
47.48
46.7
46.87
46.49
47.26
46.83
46.37
46.45
46.1
46.9
45.9799
41.81
40.58
39.79
41.38
40.64
39.8
41
41.58
43.04
45.56
47.19
46.37
43.31
44.1
44.36
43.54
43.91
45.23
45
44.65
45.04
44.39
44.59
43.69
42.8
43.21
42.96
43.74
43.74
43.59
43.24
44.46
44.13
43.1
43.4
43.08
43.93
44.53
43.87

570.8
686.5
825.5
0
1537.5
632.7
828.6
663.7
689.7
648.6
553.2
819.1
451
396.1
395.7
542.2
769.4
1043.5
2989.1
1740.8
1365.4
1548.2
605.6
1508.9
807.8
1170.3
1069.2
1362.2
2828
2177
1881.6
910.5
1162.6
844.6
1158.9
1219.8
764.9
363.8
473.6
567.7
518
420.3
639.9
400
591.5
447.8
0
677.5
627.6
650.5
607.4
548.6
302.6
373.9
334.8
262.7
308.8

9/18/2007
9/19/2007
9/20/2007
9/21/2007
9/24/2007
9/25/2007
9/26/2007
9/27/2007
9/28/2007
10/1/2007
10/2/2007
10/3/2007
10/4/2007
10/5/2007
10/8/2007
10/9/2007
10/10/2007
10/11/2007
10/12/2007
10/15/2007
10/16/2007
10/17/2007
10/18/2007
10/19/2007
10/22/2007
10/23/2007
10/24/2007
10/25/2007
10/26/2007
10/29/2007
10/30/2007
10/31/2007
11/1/2007
11/2/2007
11/5/2007
11/6/2007
11/7/2007
11/8/2007
11/9/2007
11/12/2007
11/13/2007
11/14/2007
11/15/2007
11/16/2007
11/19/2007
11/20/2007
11/21/2007
11/22/2007
11/23/2007
11/26/2007
11/27/2007
11/28/2007
11/29/2007
11/30/2007

44.39
44.48
43.26
43.28
43
40.59
41.36
41.56
40.8
42.19
43.12
46.57
47.27
48.11
47.62
48.19
48.95
48.66
47.77
47.57
48.12
48.57
47.82
46.85
47.2
48.81
43.61
41.66
41.05
41.01
40.73
40.99
39.28
38.21
37.89
37.25
37.19
37.4799
36.62
36.96
37.85
37.14
37.11
37.01
35.91
34.64
34.27
34.27
35.09
35.29
35.51
38.01
39.47
40.07

639.4
733.3
437.1
339.4
410.9
1049.7
845.1
428
537.6
1079.8
786.2
2384
1306.2
657.1
410.4
378.5
1009.4
904.5
536.2
714.3
483.7
620.7
710.9
947.1
770.6
910.7
2796.6
1437
955.7
951.2
1011.1
809.6
840.5
1001.6
752.5
939.9
675.2
637
527
599.4
486.1
532.6
388.3
617.6
494
681.3
857.5
0
505.7
795.8
664.2
1259.9
784.8
1270.7

Stock Price

Exhibit 4
PANERA BREAD COMPANY
Data on Comparable Firm Capital Structure
(numbers in thousands except for prices)

Estimates for Year-End 2007

Revenue
EBIT
LT Debt

11/30/2007
Price
Shares

Quick Service Restaurants

McDonald's Corp
Wendy's Group Inc.
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22,786,600
1,263,717
2,234,000
1,462,870
2,513,431

3,879,000
19,900
290,000
193,910
216,996

8,174,500
739,333
943,000
1,720,083
433,303

56.32
8.10
25.90
13.86
29.95

1,165,300
28,884
135,000
59,665
59,736

Casual Dining
Darden Restaurants Inc.
Ruby Tuesday Inc.
PF Chang's China Bistro Inc.
The Cheesecake Factory Inc.
California Pizza Kitchen Inc.

5,567,100
1,410,227
1,084,193
1,511,577
632,884

574,400
154,855
53,312
110,803
21,517

491,600
514,338
191,195
175,000
0

38.25
13.11
25.59
23.29
15.91

141,400
53,240
24,152
69,152
28,358

Fast Casual
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
Starbucks Corp.
Buffalo Wild Wings Inc.

1,085,782
9,411,497
329,652

113,706
1,053,945
28,518

0
550,000
12,585

133.15
23.39
28.91

32,805
727,600
17,657

Data sources: Investex, Onesource, Yahoo! Finance, and individual firm 10-K filings.

Multiperiod Forecast
Historic
2003
Revenue

Bakery Caf
Dough Sold to Franchisees
Depreciation
General and Administrative
Operating Cost

Current Assets
Property, Plant, and Equipment
Goodwill and Other Assets
Total Assets
Current Liabilities
Deferred Rent and Other Liabilities
Debt borrowing
Total Liab. Before External Fin
Equity
Total Liabilities and Equity

Historic Percentage of Sales

Bakery Caf
Dough Sold to Franchisees
Depreciation
General and Administrative (b)

Current Assets

2005

363,702 479,139 640,275 828,971 1,050,000

72% 210,822 288,706 399,760 542,916

8.20% 54,967 65,627 75,036 85,618
5.30% 18,304 25,298 33,011 44,166
7.40% 31,502 38,735 50,240 63,502
315,595 418,366 558,047 736,202

Operating Profit
Interest Expense
Pretax Profit
Tax
Net Income

2004

Forecast
2006
2007

738,000
86,000
60,000
78,000
962,000

48,107

60,773

82,228

92,769

88,000

48
48,059
17,629
30,430

18
60,755
22,175
38,580

50
82,178
29,995
52,183

92
92,677
33,827
58,850

150
87,850
31,500
56,350

14% 72,052 84,613 102,774 127,618

41% 146,362 201,725 268,809 345,977
9.50% 38,421 38,334 66,084 69,014
256,835 324,672 437,667 542,609

150,000
430,000
110,000
690,000

6%
37%

12.70%
4.30%

45,643
13,616

55,705
27,604

86,865 109,610
33,824 35,333

130,000
45,000
60,984

197,576 241,363 316,978 397,666

256,835 324,672 437,667 542,609

454,016
690,000

2003
2004
2005
2006
57.97% 60.26% 62.44% 65.49%
15.11% 13.70% 11.72% 10.33%
5.03% 5.28% 5.16% 5.33%
8.66% 8.08% 7.85% 7.66%
87%
87%
87%
89%

2007
70.29%
8.19%
5.71%
7.43%
92%

19.81% 17.66% 16.05% 15.39%

14.29%

Property, Plant, and Equipment

Goodwill and Other
Current Liabilities
Deferred Rent and Other
Tax Rate

40.24% 42.10% 41.98% 41.74%

10.56% 8.00% 10.32% 8.33%
12.55% 11.63% 13.57% 13.22%
3.74% 5.76% 5.28% 4.26%
36.68% 36.50% 36.50% 36.50%

Ratio Analysis
Profit Margin
Asset Turnover
Equity Multiplier

2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
8.37% 8.05% 8.15% 7.10%
5.37%
1.416092 1.475763 1.462927 1.52775 1.5217391
1.29993 1.345161 1.380749 1.364484 1.5197702

ROE

15.40% 15.98% 16.46% 14.80%

ROA

11.85%

Operating Cash Flows

40.95%
10.48%
12.38%
4.29%
35.86%

2007
48,782

2008
63,896

11.88%

12.41%

11.92% 10.85%

8.17%

2009
2010
2011
85,244 103,108 116,500

2012
129,624

2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
25%
25%
5%
5%
5%
1,312,500 1,640,625 1,722,656 1,808,789 1,899,229

945,000 1,181,250 1,240,313 1,302,328 1,367,445

107,625
134,531
141,258
148,321
155,737
69,563
86,953
91,301
95,866
100,659
97,125
121,406
127,477
133,850
140,543
1,219,313 1,524,141 1,600,348 1,680,365 1,764,383
93,188

116,484

122,309

128,424

134,845

3,659
89,528
33,126
56,403

11,281
105,203
38,925
66,278

21,156
101,153
37,426
63,726

24,170
104,254
38,574
65,680

27,184
107,661
39,835
67,826

183,750
229,688
538,125
672,656
124,688
155,859
846,563 1,058,203

241,172
253,230
265,892
706,289
741,604
778,684
163,652
171,835
180,427
1,111,113 1,166,669 1,225,002

166,688
208,359
56,438
70,547
188,019
352,600
223,125
278,906
435,419
426,697
846,563 1,058,203

218,777
229,716
241,202
74,074
77,778
81,667
402,839
453,072
503,204
292,852
307,494
322,869
415,423
406,103
398,929
1,111,113 1,166,669 1,225,002

Average
63.29%
11.81%
5.30%
7.94%
88%
16.64%

41.40%
9.54%
12.67%
4.67%
36.41%

2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
4.30%
4.04%
3.70%
3.63%
3.57%
1.5503876 1.5503876 1.5503876 1.5503876 1.5503876
1.9442483 2.4799874 2.6746544 2.8728403 3.0707253
12.95%

15.53%

15.34%

16.17%

17.00%

6.66%

6.26%

5.74%

5.63%

5.54%