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P (A [ B) = P (A) + P (B)

P (A \ B)

P (A \ B)

P (A \ B)

P (A|B) =

P (B)

P (A|B c ) = 1 P (A|B)

P (A \ C)

P (B \ C) + P (A \ B \ C)

Multiplication Rule

P (A \ B) = P (B|A) P (A) = P (A|B) P (B)

Total Probability

Independent Events if:

P (A \ B) = P (A) P (B)

Bayes Rule

P (A|B) P (B)

P (A|B) P (B) + P (A|B c ) P (B c )

Counting Techniques (set size n, subset size r)

P (B|A) =

Ordered without replacing (a.k.a. binomial coecient): n Pr =

Unordered: n Cr =

(n

Format of Question:

Examples:

n!

r)! (r)!

num defective

num looking for

num selected - num looking for

total

num selected

n!

(n

r)!

Pn

= E(x) = 0 n f (n)

Pn

E(x2 ) = 0 n2 f (n)

Binomial Theorem

Negative Binomial

P (X = x) =

var(x) =

(x) = E(x2 )

P (X = x) =

= E(x) = n p

fxy = P (X = x, Y = x) = P (X = xandY = y)

Covariance

= E[(X

Correlation

xy =

x ) (Y

y )] = E[XY ]

xy

y

Continuous Random Variables

R1

= E(x) = 1 x f (x)dx

R1

E(x2 ) = 1 x2 f (x)dx

x

var(x) =

Examples:

(x) = E(x2 )

x y

x 1

r 1

p)n

p)x

(1

= var(x) =

P (X = x) = (1

1

= E(x) =

p

2

= var(x) =

Examples:

p)x

1

p

p2

p)

r (r p)

p2

Geometric Distribution

2

px (1

= var(x) = n p (1

r

= E(x) =

p

xy

n

x

(p)r

Poisson Approximation

x

P (X = x) = e

x!

V ar(x) = E(x) = = np

Poisson Process

P (X = x) = e

=

P.M.F. f (X = x) =

C.D.F. F (x) = 1

1

= E(x) =

( t)x

x!

Erlang Distribution

N (x) = poisson( x)

Pr 1 e

P (X x) = 1

k=0

r

= E(x) =

r

2

= var(x) = 2

2

3

and x > 0

if x

0; otherwise 0

1

2

Memoryless Property

P (x > t + s|x > s) = P (x > t) = e

( k)k

k!

Uniform Distribution

1

f (x) =

b a

x a

F (x) =

, a < x < b (0 if a < x, otherwise 1)

b a

a+b

= E(x) =

2

(b a)2

2

= var(x) =

12

Estimators of Datasets

= Pn xi

Mean : X

i=1

n

1 Pn

2

2

2

Variance : S =

(Xi X)

n 1 i=1

p

Standard Deviation : S = S 2

# of successes

Population p: P =

n

Range: r = max(xi ) min(xi ) = yn y1

Standard Error

=p

X

rn

p(1 p)

P =

n

Examples:

= var(x) ==

p

2

= sd(x) =

Q1 = Ym + 0.25 (ym+1

Q3 = Ym + 0.75 (ym+1

IQR = Q3

ym )

ym )

Q1

1.5IQR

x

P (X < x) = Z =

Central Limit Theorem (on dataset)

b) = (b)

P (a X

(a)

X

p

if n > 30 (x) = Z =

/ n

X

p

if n < 30 (x) = t =

/ n

Confidence Interval

Z p

If known: CI = X

2

n

t ;(n

If unknown and S < 40: CI = X

2

Z p

Else use: CI = X

2

1 conf

=

2 2

2

Z 2

n

; E: Given Error

E

Independent Samples

Y ) (1 2 )

(X

Z= p 2

2

1 /n1 + 2 /n2

Examples:

1) p

Right Sided alternative:

H0 : = 0

H1 : > 0

Left Sided alternative:

H0 : = 0

H1 : < 0

Two Sided alternative:

H0 : = 0

H1 : 6= 0

Normal pop or n 30 and is known:

0

X

p

Z0 =

/ n

n 40 and unknown:

0

X

p

Z0 =

S/ n

Pop normal and unknown:

0

X

p

T0 =

S/ n

P-Value calculations:

Right Sided alternative:

p-value = 1

(Z0 )

p-value =

(Z0 )

p-value = 2 (1

(|Z0 |))

Critical Region calculations:

Right Sided alternative:

z0 > z

Left Sided alternative:

z0 <

z0 <

P p0

Z0 = p

p0 (1 p0 )/n

Linear Regression

= yP x

n

(x

x

) (yi y)

= i=1

P ni

(x

x

)2

i

Pn i=1

Pn

Pn

n i=1 xi yi ( i=1 xi ) ( i=1 yi )

=

Pn

P2

n i=1 x2i ( i=1 xi )2

sxy

= 2

sx

Examples:

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