Professional Documents
Culture Documents
1. Mark Leonard, excerpts from What does China Think?, pp. 60-63, 71-75, 79-81, 115- 118
2. Carl Minzner, China After the Reform Era, Journal of Democracy, vol. 26, July 2015, pp.
129-143
3. Tang et. al., Chinas Rule by Law Takes an Ugly Turn, Foreign Policy, July 14, 2015
4. Jacques deLisle, The Rule of Law with Xi-Era Characteristics: Law for Economic
Reform, Anticorruption, and Illiberal Politics, Asia Policy, number 20 (July 2015)
5. Tom Mitchell, China ensures Zhou Yongkang trial sticks to the script, Financial Times,
June 12, 2015
6. Orville Schell and John Delury, A Rising China Needs a New National Story, Wall Street
Journal, July 12, 2013
7. CCP Central Committee Decision Concerning Some Major Questions in Comprehensively
Moving Governing the Country According to the Law Forward (part 1)
8. David Shambaugh, The Coming Chinese Crackup, Wall Street Journal, March 6, 2015
9. Is China Really Cracking Up?: A Chinafile Conversation, Chinafile, March 11, 2015
10. Hu Angang , Embracing China's New Normal Why the Economy Is Still on Track,,
Foreign Affairs, May/June 2015
11. Everything Xi Wants The Economist, July 4, 2015
12. Daniel Kliman, Is Chinas the Fastest Rising Power in History? Foreign Policy, May 16,
2014
13. Optional: Benjamin L. Liebman, Chinas Law Stability Paradox (Daedalus April 2014)
new look. Their fingers having been burned in Iraq and Afghanistan,
U.S. policy makers have backed away from the democracy-promotion
agenda identified with prior administrations. Authoritarian regimes in
Cuba, Iran, and Burma were once scorned by Washington elites. Now
these regimes are targets of cautious diplomatic outreach.
A new tone has entered academia as well. During the 1990s, experts
spoke confidently about a third wave of democratization. Now they
characterize the decade since 2005 as one of democratic recession
and authoritarian resurgence. 1 Even Francis Fukuyama has altered
course. Struck by a plethora of unsuccessful democratic transitions
in Russia, Africa, and the Middle Easthe now cautions readers to
focus less on the high-minded goal of building liberal democracy, and
more on constructing the basic machinery of rule by an efficient state. 2
Given this, one can understand why China might seem attractive today.
Compared with the steadily escalating turmoil in the Middle East and the
slow-moving train wreck of Russia and Ukraine, China appears a relative
haven. There is no revolution and no civil war. For roughly three decades,
economic growth averaged 10 percent a year. On the surface, China seems
the very incarnation of the efficient state machine that Fukuyama calls for.
But a closer look at the four decades of Chinas reform era reveals a different truth. Chinas heady accomplishments have been grounded in a set of
norms and policiespolitical, economic, and ideologicaladopted in the
last quarter of the twentieth century. These are now unraveling.
Since 1989, Beijing has firmly adhered to one core principle: Uphold
the rule of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) at all costs. Naturally,
Journal of Democracy Volume 26, Number 3 July 2015
2015 National Endowment for Democracy and Johns Hopkins University Press
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this has led Chinese leaders to take political liberalization off the table.
But it has also led them to undermine the very governance reforms that
have been key to the resilience shown by Chinas authoritarian regime.
Put simply, in their drive to retain political power, CCP leaders have
eroded the late-twentieth-century bedrock on which Chinas success has
been built. Rather than serving as the poster child for successful authoritarian governance, China is actually an example of the perils of failing
to undertake political reform.
Carl Minzner
131
The rest of the Chinese bureaucracy swung back toward institutionalized governance as well. No longer were the rules of the game supposed
to shift with each new leader.3 Legal reform became a hallmark of the
post-Mao era. Authorities issued hundreds of new statutes and regulations, constructing a comprehensive framework of criminal, civil, and
commercial law. They reopened law schools. Thousands of new graduates began to flow into the courts and other government legal bureaus
that rose from the ashes of the Mao years.
Economically, the 1980s saw dramatic improvements in standards of
living. Collectivized agriculture unraveled. Market incentives were introduced. Rural incomes soared, lifting hundreds of millions out of crushing poverty. The urban-rural gap narrowed. As Yasheng Huang points
out, Chinese capitalismin the 1980swas also a poor mans affair.4
Financial liberalization led to expanded credit in the countryside. Rural
entrepreneurship boomed as township and village enterprises grew.
Socially, China gradually opened up. Authorities backed away from
the pervasive ideology that had characterized the Mao era. The Party
no longer had any deep interest in controlling citizens internal beliefs,
just their public actions. Churches, mosques, and temples reopened. So
did colleges and universities. Official controls over the lives of citizens
eroded. As ration coupons and state employment gave way to market
forces, people became less dependent on bureaucrats. When greener
pastures beckoned in the next county or province, many began to simply
pick up and leave. And as China turned outward, foreign students, businesspeople, and ideas began to flow in.
By the late 1980s, such trends had culminated in an unusually open
atmosphere. Relaxed religious policies had generated improved relations between the state and ethnic groups such as the Muslim Uighurs
and Buddhist Tibetans, including a series of talks between representatives of Beijing and the Dalai Lama. Intellectuals gathered in Beijing salons to debate liberal reform. In these years, even state television could
air controversial programs such as River Elegy (1988), which critiqued
traditional Chinese culture and urged greater exposure to the outside
world as a means to modernize China.
Chinese authorities themselves began to experiment with yet deeper reform. Controls over the media were relaxed. And in 1987, under reformminded CCP general secretary Zhao Ziyang, they edged tentatively toward
separating the Party from the organs of governmentthe furthest steps toward meaningful political reform that China has seen to date.
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Carl Minzner
133
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By the turn of the millennium, Chinese leaders appeared to have surmounted the crises of the early 1990s. As Andrew Nathan noted in 2003,
they had seemingly managed to institutionalize single-party political
rule, fusing it with market capitalism and global trade networks to create a resilient authoritarian regime that would carry forward into the
twenty-first century.
Carl Minzner
135
from China to Germany had read: Across the Great Wall, we can reach
every corner of the world. Two decades later, Beijing sought to prevent
precisely that. State authorities steadily adapted their methods of censoring print and television to the online world, strengthening systems
for blocking and filtering information to the point where they became
known as the Great Firewall of China. Rather than a total barrier, the
Firewall aims to make certain information outside China so hard to access that most Chinese citizens will give up looking for it. Within China,
it attempts to induce self-censorship on the part of most users and Internet providers. The regime sanctions those who refuse to cooperate. Such
pressures led Google, which had entered China in 2005, to shutter its domestic Chinese search engine five years later. More compliant domestic
firms such as Baidu now dominate the mainland-Chinese search market.
Tighter controls produced an especially dire turn in Xinjiang and
Tibet. Since the 1990s, repressive policies in both regions had fueled
rising popular resentment. After 2000, Beijings development policies
brought a tide of Han Chinese migrants to each area, but limited benefits
for locals. Festering tensions exploded into violence in Tibet in 2008
and Xinjiang a year later. Brutal ethnic riots wracked Urumqi, killing
hundreds of residents, both Han and Uighurs alike. Authorities cracked
down hard with mass arrests and extensive use of force.
By the early twenty-first century, economic reforms were filling
Chinas cities with the emblems of modern success: skyscrapers and
Starbucks. State investment was steered into massive infrastructure and
urban-development programs. But in stark contrast to the 1980s, the
benefits of such development now flowed disproportionately to a much
narrower elitestate companies and foreign investorsrather than to
the populace at large. Credit policies increasingly disfavored rural entrepreneurs. Township and village enterprises that had helped rural China
to boom during the 1980s faltered. Many went bankrupt.
The impact of these changes rippled through all levels of society.
In the early 1990s, the best and brightest of Chinas college graduates
had sought their fortunes in the private sector. By the 2000s, this had
reversed. State employment offered more attractive possibilities for enriching oneselfif not through legitimate earnings, then through corruption. Applications to join the civil service surged through the centurys early years.9 Shifts occurred among the working poor as well.
With fewer jobs to be had in the countryside, rural residents flowed to
the cities in search of work. The migrant population, which had hovered
between 60 and 70 million in the early 1990s, surged to 137 million in
2000, and 206 million a decade after that.10 In the cities, however, only
established residents had access to urban social benefitshealth, education, and pensions. New migrants went without. Trends such as these
fueled dramatically accelerating income inequality; by 2008, it reached
levels found in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa.
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Carl Minzner
137
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dissented from the decision to purge Bo. In doing so, Xi broke with unwritten Party rules that exempted former and current Politburo Standing
Committee members from prosecution. Xis decision radically upended conventions that had existed since
the beginning of the reform period.
The targeting of family members (in
As of early 2015, central
CCP organs had begun to this case, Zhous sons) by investigaspeak of the need to rec- tors further intensified unease among
members of the political elite. Wild rutify higher education,
mors began to proliferate as to which
purge Western values
other former leaders might be next.
from textbooks, and rediXi coupled his efforts to solidify
rect art and architecture
control with a tough campaign against
back toward traditional
graft. Run under opaque rules by the
secretive CCP disciplinary apparaChinese forms.
tus, it was the severest such campaign
since the reform era began. Week after week, lists of officials sacked or placed under investigation flowed
forth. Xi thus shattered 1990s-era norms that had tolerated both the fusion of money and politics and the unabashed displays of excess that resulted. Once self-confident cadres began to grow palpably afraid. Sales
of Prada handbags and the receipts of Macau gambling houses nosedived. Chinas ultra-rich busied themselves with efforts to move their
assets and families abroad, while midlevel bureaucrats hunkered down
in fear that a wrong move would end their careers, or worse.
By late 2014, rumors began swirling that retired top leaders such as
Hu and Jiang had warned Xi to curb his efforts. If indeed they had urged
him to avoid tangling with too many of the elite patronage networks,
there is little evidence that he has heeded their message. On the contrary, the early months of 2015 saw the anticorruption campaign sweep
through top military ranks, claiming a former Central Military Commission vice-chairman and dozens of generals. Most recently, it has even
begun to envelop Hus and Jiangs own factional allies.
With both the bureaucracy and other top leaders cowed, Xi centralized his formal power. A galaxy of new internal Party leadership groups
has taken shape in the areas of foreign affairs, economic reform, and
Internet security. Their shared feature is Xi Jinping at the apex. The
domestic-security apparatus that Zhou Yongkang and his predecessors
had assiduously built has been folded into a new national-security commission, chaired (unsurprisingly enough) by Xi. Such moves run contrary to internal CCP practices dating from the 1980s. Under these old
customs, top Party officials had divided power among themselves, seeking elite stability through a rough balance of power. Xi has overturned
this, stamping himself as the most powerful Chinese leader since Deng,
and perhaps since Mao.
Carl Minzner
139
During his rise, Xi has borrowed directly from the playbook of his
fallen rival Bo Xilai. He has projected a populist image, aided by the star
quality of his wife, a renowned folk singer. His confident, easy interactions with the public have formed a sharp contrast with those of his predecessor Hu Jintao, a wooden speaker given to stiff sloganeering. Xi has
tapped into a real vein of support among citizens who are disgusted by
official graft, and who love seeing the rich and powerful being brought
to their knees by a strong leader who knows how to get things done.
Xi has built on this sentiment. His image-building has begun to give
off the whiff of a personality cult, with aromatic notes steadily strengthening over time. His public appearances have received a level of television coverage dwarfing that accorded to any other top official. Starting in
2014, he has begun delivering an annual personal address to the nation.
Popular adulation for Papa Xia nickname that began online and has
now drifted into the state presshas become a noticeable phenomenon.
After Xis surprise December 2013 visit to a Beijing dumpling restaurant
to dine with ordinary customers, it became a pilgrimage site for tourists.
By early 2015, art students at one Beijing college were sketching his portrait as part of their entrance examination. The 2015 edition of the annual
Chinese New Years gala on state televisionthe worlds most-watched
annual broadcast, with a viewership approaching eight-hundred-million
peoplefeatured singers crooning I give you my heart while scenes of
Xi visiting citizens and troops flashed behind them. This is a long way
from the low-key style of collective leadership that had prevailed since
the end of the Cultural Revolution in the 1970s.
Playing the populist card has gone hand in hand with reinforcing
hard-line policies launched under Hu Jintao. The crackdown on publicinterest lawyers has tightened. Social-media sites have been subjected
to tighter controls. Even those used to a degree of immunity have found
themselves targeted. Foreign businesses have been alarmed by steppedup corruption probes into pharmaceutical companies, dawn raids by
antimonopoly regulators on firms ranging from Microsoft to MercedesBenz, and proposed antiterror rules that would require foreign software
companies to hand over their encryption keys. New civil society laws
have tightened restrictions on foreign NGOs. As of early 2015, central
CCP organs had begun to speak of the need to rectify higher education, purge Western values from textbooks, and redirect art and architecture back toward traditional Chinese forms.
Such moves reflect a deeper shift. For decades, state ideology has
remained in limboa matter of perfectly coiffed television anchors
mouthing increasingly anachronistic Marxist slogans. Xi has deepened
efforts to find a new basis for the legitimacy of single-party rule. This
son of a Maoist revolutionary has pivoted back to the pre-Maoist past,
making a pilgrimage to the hometown of Confucius, extolling traditional Chinese culture, and embracing reformers from the time of the Qing
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dynasty (16441912) who were once derided as feudal or reactionary. Under Xis mantra of the China Dream, a new ethnonationalist
narrative has been taking shape. Slowly, China has begun to turn away
from the late twentieth century and its policies of cultural openness. In
schools, the role of English in the national college-entrance test has been
deemphasized. On television, risqu knockoffs of Western dating programs have been eclipsed by game shows that test contestants knowledge of Chinese-language characters.
For many, the new emphasis on Chinas own cultural roots has fed a
welcome sense of national pride. But it has intensified tensions with those
who do not fit the new state narrative. Unregistered Christians in Zhejiang
Province, tacitly tolerated for decades, have been hit by a sweeping official campaign of church demolitions. Relations between the vast Han Chinese majority and ethnically distinct minority populations have worsened.
In Tibet, continued state repression has produced a wave of self-immolations by more than a hundred young people. In Xinjiang, state suppression
of Uighur identity and the Muslim religion have fueled radicalization and
a rising wave of domestic terrorism. In Hong Kong, increasing mainland
influence and Beijings heavy-handed controls have stirred discontent
among Cantonese-speaking citizens fearful about the fate of their distinctive cultural and political identity, resulting in the 2014 Occupy Central
movementthe largest protests anywhere in China since 1989.12
Carl Minzner
141
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Journal of Democracy
Here we come to the second reason for the shifts noted above. Xi
appears to have concluded that his only path to a breakthrough requires
him to tear up the existing rulesreversing many if not all of the partly
institutionalized internal Party norms that Andrew Nathan noted back in
2003. Hence Xi has opted for politicized anticorruption purges of rivals,
centralization of power in his own hands, cultivation of a populist image, and an ideological turn toward nationalism and cultural identity.
These are not mere transitory policies. For Xi, they are absolutely fundamental shifts necessary to address the crisis he sees facing China.
He may be right. Optimists can point to his efforts at fiscal and economic reform. They can cite his efforts to strengthen Party disciplinary
and legal systems as indications that he will build new political institutions on the ashes of the old.14 Perhaps Xi does indeed belong to that
rarest of all rare breedsthe benevolent authoritarian emperor who presides wisely over the remodeling of China, while ruthlessly crushing
dissent in the process.
Moreover, there are still several key reform-era norms that have not
yet been breached. The ideological redefinition of China remains embryonic. Marxist dialectics still figure in CCP speeches even as Confucian quotations proliferate. And Chinese state television, unlike its
Russian counterpart, continues to promote interethnic harmony rather
than rank appeals to majority-group chauvinism. Most important, Xi has
drawn a clear line at social mobilization. For all of his invocation of
Mao-era symbolism, there has been no sign that he intends to resort to
mass movements.
Yet China is now steadily cannibalizing its own prior political institutionalization. Observers such as David Shambaugh, who once pointed
to such institutionalization as a source of stability for the party-state, are
revising their evaluations of the systems sustainability sharply downward.15 Others have begun to speculate openly whether reform-era policies limiting top Party leaders to ten years in office might be next to go,
with Xi Jinping perhaps trying to extend his rule well beyond 2022.16
Uncertainty hangs in the air. Chinese with the most to lose are diversifying against riskplacing their money in Vancouver real estate and their
children in U.S. colleges, and maybe even seeking passports from one or
another of the small Caribbean nations that is known to put citizenship
up for sale.
The events of 1989 did not resolve the core question of Chinas political future. Nor did they put it on hold indefinitely. Rather, they launched
a cascading set of effects that have swept through Chinas politics, economy, and society in the years since. The resulting reverberations have
now begun to dislodge core elements of the institutional consensus that
has governed China for decades. A new future is slouching toward Beijing to be born.
Carl Minzner
143
NOTES
1. Larry Diamond, Facing Up to the Democratic Recession, Journal of Democracy
26 (January 2015): 141.
2. Francis Fukuyama, Why Is Democracy Performing So Poorly? Journal of Democracy 26 (January 2015): 11.
3. Deng Xiaoping, Emancipate the Mind, Seek Truth From Facts and Unite as One
in Looking Toward the Future, 13 December 1978, http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/
dengxp/vol2/text/b1260.html.
4. Yasheng Huang, Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics: Entrepreneurship and
the State (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2008), 83.
5. Zhonggong zhongyang, guowuyuan guanyu jiaqiang shehui zhian zonghe zhili
de jueding [CCP Central Committee, State Council decision regarding strengthening the
comprehensive management of public security], 2 February 1991.
6. Suisheng Zhao, A State-Led Nationalism: The Patriotic Education Campaign in
Post-Tiananmen China, Communist and Post-Communist Studies 31 (September 1998):
287302.
7. Some material is paraphrased or transposed directly from Carl Minzner, China at
the Tipping Point: The Turn Against Legal Reform, Journal of Democracy 24 (2013): 65.
8. Bruce Dickson, Red Capitalists in China: The Party, Private Entrepreneurs, and
Prospects for Political Change (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2003).
9. Guojia gongwuyuan kaoshi 20 nian baokao renshu zhang 344 bei [In 20 years,
civil-service applicants increased by a factor of 344], Beijing News, 7 November 2013.
10. Kam Wing Chan, Migration and Development in China: Trends, Geography and
Current Issues, Migration and Development 1 (December 2012): 190.
11. Minxin Pei, Chinas Trapped Transition: The Limits of Developmental Autocracy
(Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2006).
12. See Michael C. Davis, Hong Kongs Umbrella Movement: Beijings Broken
Promises, and Victoria Tin-bor Hui, Hong Kongs Umbrella Movement: The Protests
and Beyond, Journal of Democracy 26 (April 2015): 10121.
13. Andrew J. Nathan, Chinas Changing of the Guard: Authoritarian Resilience,
Journal of Democracy 14 (January 2003): 617; David Shambaugh, Chinas Communist
Party: Atrophy and Adaptation (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2008), 105; Kellee Tsai, Cause or Consequence? Private-Sector Development and Communist Resilience
in China, in Martin Dimitrov, ed., Why Communism Did Not Collapse: Understanding
Authoritarian Regime Resilience in Asia and Europe (Cambridge: Cambridge University
Press, 2013), 20534.
14. Carl Minzner, Legal Reform in the Xi Jinping Era, Asia Policy, no. 20 (July
2015).
15. David Shambaugh, The Coming Chinese Crackup, Wall Street Journal, 6 March
2015.
16. Willy Lam, Xi Jinping Forever, Foreign Policy, 1 April 2015.
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The crackdown has already raised grave doubts about the real-life implications of Chinese PresidentXi
Jinpings particularconceptionof rule by law. On July 12, state mouthpiecePeoples Dailypublished
awhole-page feature,Unveiling the Inside Plot of the Rights Defense Incident, accusing the seized
lawyers of colluding with petitioners, sensationalizing grievance cases on the Internet, seeking personal
fame and status, and participating in a criminal syndicate.
Butactivists point out that thePeoples Dailystory and editorial are essentially a prosecution without
trial. To make their point, they have juxtaposed thePeoples Dailycriminal syndicate headline with an
(unverified) message sent to a Zhejiang-based lawyer by a Shanghai police bureau branch, which read: Do
not publish any relevant information on the arrest of Wang Yu, Zhou Shifeng, and [other rights] lawyers.
Otherwise, we have a way togao, or mess with, you and your son.
The current crackdown on lawyers, though perhaps unprecedented, is anything but unexpected. Since Xis
administration came into power in 2012, attacks on NGO groups, civil society activists, andmedia
freedomshave impacted anti-discrimination groups, liberal intellectuals, and young feminists, and have
resulted in arrests or detentionsin the thousands.The ultimate goal appears to be the total prohibition of
any possible outside checks and balances on the power of the Chinese Communist Party. The current
crackdown is just the most recent manifestation.
In a May 2015 speech at theCentral United Front Work Conference, Xihighlightedoverseas Chineseand
especially Chinese students abroadas a new front for mobilization of party interests. Personnel studying
abroad, he said, constituteda key element of the skilled workforce, as well as the new focus for a United
Front. That approach is wrongheaded. The state should recognize that having studied and lived abroad,
students and scholars will carry different, sometimes dissenting, opinions with them back to China. The
governments stated refusal ofWestern valuesand itsparanoiaaboutforeign influenceis seriously shortsighted and in the long run, may deprive China of opportunities to reform economically, politically, and
legally.
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One consequence of the recent detentions is likely to be the continued brain drain of young, justiceminded Chinese abroad.As ayoung feministand aspiring advocate forChinese civil rights, I find 2015 an
ominous year to begin pursuing my Juris Doctorate (JD) at an American law school. While Im not aware of
statistics on the number of Chinese nationals going overseas to pursue JDs, I sense Im part of a growing
trend. Will our legal training in the United States impact the future of the Chinese legal landscape? Will
young legal talents become interested in the separation of power, possible redistribution of power in the
Chinese context, and perhaps even civil rights? Or will they just become yet another elite, depoliticized
Chinese circle, collaborating with the state for personal status and material gain?
Keith Hand:
In my view, we should understand the wave of lawyer detentions this past weekend as the crescendo of a
decade-long campaign by Chinas leaders to contain the perceived threat posed by the rights defense
movement.
The 2003 Sun Zhigang incident generally is viewed as a milestone in the development of rights defense in
China. After Sun died in police custody, a group of young lawyers leveraged media coverage and public
outrage over the incident and filed a petition with the National Peoples Congress Standing Committee
challenging the legality of a regulation on Chinas custody and repatriation system. Faced with public
opinion pressure over Suns death and a modest, carefully drafted legal argument advanced through
official channels, the government repealed the regulation. The incident highlighted a moderate approach
that legal reformers could use to push for legal reform within Chinas authoritarian system. In the wake of
this incident, moderate lawyers refined rights defense strategies and applied them with limited success on
issues such as anti-discrimination, property rights, and criminal procedure. At the same time, they
advanced broader arguments about constitutionalism and the need for meaningful legal restraints on the
Party-state.
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Senior leaders identified the rights defense movement as a potential threat early on. Although official
media praised lawyers such as Xu Zhiyong and Teng Biao for promoting reformwithin the legal
framework, authorities detained or prosecuted other lawyers, including Gao Zhisheng, Guo Feixiong, Zhu
Jiuhu, and Chen Guangcheng, whose advocacy was viewed as more confrontational or destabilizing. By
2006, Luo Gan, then head of the Party Political-Legal Commission, publicly declared that China must
[e]ffectively guard against enemy forces and people with ulterior motives who get involved in or use
contradictions among the people to manufacture disturbances, including those who use the pretense of
rights defense to engage in sabotage.
Over the decade that followed, a confluence of two trends narrowed space for rights defense actions and
expanded the group of rights activists that Chinese leaders viewed as falling within the category of enemy
forces. As concern about threats to social stability intensified, Chinese leaders launched campaigns to
shore up the loyalty of political-legal institutions and incorporate these institutions into a system-wide
stability maintenance network. At the same time, rights defense lawyers began to organize more overtly
and to push political-legal boundaries through their advocacy on a range of sensitive cases and issues. The
wave of citizen activism crested in 2008, when thousands of citizens signed a broad call for constitutional
government called Charter 08.
Efforts to contain the rights defense movement have intensified under Xi Jinping. While the Fourth
Plenum Decision renewed the partys commitment to legal professionalism and process in certain
respects, it also strengthened emphasis on the party. Xis apparent goal is to discipline the bureaucracy
and promote new economic reforms by revisiting and modestly expanding on the legal reforms of the
1990s and early 2000s, while containing perceived threats that the earlier wave of legal reforms generated.
Accordingly, the party-state has stepped up repression of rights lawyers, tightened control over the
Internet and other discourse that sustains rights defense actions, and marginalized citizen constitutional
rights arguments by emphasizing party leadership as the defining principle of Chinas constitutional
order.The wave of detentions this past weekend is just the latest step in this sustained effort.
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What political-legal space remains for rights defense lawyers? In the early 2000s, there was considerable
optimism that some Chinese lawyers had identified a middle ground within which Chinese leaders would
tolerate some moderate citizen pressure and legal advocacy. Even as this space constricted over the past
decade, petitions from rights lawyers and legal scholars contributed to some meaningful legal reforms.
The adoption of new rules governing property seizures in urban areas in 2011 and leaderships decision to
dismantle the re-education through labor system in late 2013 are notable examples. However, the wave of
repression that has culminated in the weekend detentions demonstrates the leaderships determinationto
eliminate much of this remaining space and make clear that it will tolerate citizen legal argument only
within the very narrow and controlled confines.
Finally, some commentators have observed that the weekend action against rights lawyers demonstrates
the regimes fragility. I think we need to consider a different possibility. Together with Chinas assertive
posture in territorial disputes, the adoption of a broad national security law, and proposed legislation that
would place strict new limits on the Internet and activities by foreign non-profits, the mass detention of
rights lawyers suggests to me that Chinas leaders are so confident in their strength that they no longer
need to maintain the pretense of limited engagement and tolerance.
Eva Pils:
This crackdown is the latest step in Xis apparent campaign to eradicate independent civil society and to
concentrate power. It manifests his neo-totalitarian ambitions trying to reclaim control of all aspects of
society, which requires that all social activities must be reconceived and reorganised along corporatist
lines, and under the firm leadership of the ruling party. The law, with its natural affinity to deep
controversy played out in public, is a particularly important area to be brought under control.
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A July 11 broadcast on state-run China Central Television (CCTV) labelled lawyers at the Fengrui Law Firm
in Beijing as a criminal organization suspected of the offense of creating rights defense-style
disturbances. This phrase captures what rattled the authorities, as well as the absurdity of these
charges.In recent years, human rights advocates in China have developed new strategies to take the
action from inside courtrooms out to social media and the streets.The May 2015 Qingan Incident, in
which the deadly police shooting of ayoung man who may have been trying to petition the
governmenttriggeredwide public discussion and calls for an independent investigation, is a good
example. In its wake, some 660 lawyers rallied around their professional colleagues in a signature
campaign, after one lawyer had been assaulted by unidentified thugs and others had been detained.
But to authorities trying to run a one-party peoples democratic dictatorship, a phrase reiterated in the
National Security Law, such activities look like an attempt to subvert control of the legal process. Legal
advocacy, in their eyes, becomes political resistance. The human rights lawyers swelling numbers
some 200 to 300 now, at an estimate have added to the governments anxieties. It may have reinforced
its perception of human rights lawyers as public enemies hence the crime of creating a rights
defense-style disturbance and the targeting of groups that represent modes of rights advocacy the
authorities wished to repress.
The ongoing crackdown is unprecedented in terms of its scope and methods. Earlier crackdowns
happened much less in the public eye. But this time around, authorities denounced human rights lawyers
all over national media. In being so public and assertive, the authorities have signaled to a broad swath of
society, including the wider legal profession, that they want to stop effective human rights advocacy. They
have also shown themselves brazenly unconcerned about the illegality of some of their methods. Besides
repeated use of forced disappearances, they even held a 16-year-old child for two days with no legal
justification when his parents Fengrui Law Firm employees Wang Yu and her husband Bao Longjun
were swept up in the current crackdown.
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It is perhaps testimony to the strength of the human rights lawyer movement that the campaign we now
see unfolding is so large in scope, with not only dozens detained or ominously out of reach, but also nearly
a hundred lawyers taken in for questioning and warned they are not to advocate for their already-detained
friends. Some of them have lived with persecution for many years. They have been put under surveillance,
harassed, abducted, detained, tortured, placed under house arrest, and some have been sent to prison. As
many lawyers still expect to be detained, the phrase gai lai de jiu lai ba effectively, bring it on! is
currently popular among the social media groups they use to communicate and coordinate their actions.
Inthe short term, this crackdown produces terror and suffering. The spirit of professional solidarity,
which the party is clearly trying to break, can help people live with fear but not entirely dispel it. On a trip
to China in May and June, I spoke to several of the lawyers now detained or disappeared, and already
sensed more of that fear, even though it was not often expressed.
It is difficult to tell what longer-term consequences might be. One likely consequence is greater
disapproval for the governments actions and more support for human rights lawyers within the liberalleaning legal academic establishment, such as recent comments by such widely respected figures as Chen
Guangzhong and Jiang Ping. Chinas rights lawyers are not the only ones who understand that Xis
political vision is wholly incompatible with genuine rule of law.
Taisu Zhang:
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ChinasRulebyLawTakesanUglyTurn|ForeignPolicy
Im not sure that the recent crackdown represents any significant change in government policy towards
activist lawyers. While its scale is indeed unusual, one could argue that the scale was made necessary by
targeting Fengrui Law Firm, which is similarly unusual among Chinese rights-focused legal practices in
the scope and scale of its operations. The way that the crackdown was conducted, including the specific
allegations and propaganda issued in party-controlled newspapers, is not substantially different from how
other arrests and detentions have been conducted since 2007. One could even argue that the government
has been playing a predominantly reactive role in recent years: the number of rights lawyers has
skyrocketed (relatively) over the past decade, and the escalating scale of crackdowns is largely a response
to that. In other words, this is more or less what we have come to expect from the government, which has,
of course, always been openly hostile to rights activists, particularly those who operate with the social
visibility and logistical coordination of Fengrui.
That is to say, once the initial shockwaves subside, Im not sure that this incident will fundamentally alter
the sociopolitical calculus of Chinese rights lawyers. The likelihood of arrest or detention has been very
high for at least the past five to seven years, and is not necessarily that much higher after these recent
arrests.The governments playbook has shown few signs, if any, of substantial change.I expect, therefore,
that the medium- and long-term scale of legal rights activism will continue on whatever trajectory it was
on for the past several yearswhich, apparently, is steeply upwards, despite strong and obvious
government hostility.
I should also add that a number of previous arrests were very much carried out in the public eye. Pu
Zhqiangsarrestwas announced in a number of media outlets, and drew a firestorm of commentary on
Weibo, as did Xu Zhiyongsarrest. The target was larger (in numbers) this time, so naturally a greater
number of people were affected, but the methods, including the media campaign, are not terribly different
from what weve become used to seeing in the past several years.
ThomasKellogg:
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I want to thank Nancy, Eva, Keith, and Taisu for their excellent comments I agree with much of their
analysis. I do, however, want to query Keiths suggestion that the mass detentions of the past weekend do
not suggest fragility, but instead might suggest that the party is in fact so confident in (its) strength that
it no longer needs to allow even the slightest margin of political space to rights lawyers and activists.
Maybe so. But my own conversations with a number of activists and intellectuals as well as with
everyday Chinese over the past several months have highlighted a very real cost of the increased
repression that has marked Chinese society since Xi came to power in late 2012. For many, the Xi years
have been marked by a willingness to pull out all the stops to silence critics and to maintain a high level of
control. To be sure, the party itself has not been spared: an uncountable number of cadres swept up by the
anti-corruption campaign have been tortured, and a small number have died in detention. A disturbing
number of officials have committed suicide rather than face the no-holds-barred investigative techniques
of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, the partys lead anti-corruption investigation unit.
But what is really putting the partys legitimacy at risk is its approach to civil society, including the
repression of rights activists and lawyers like Wang Yu and her colleagues at the Fengrui Law Firm. As Eva
notes, the party is increasingly making use of its extensive propaganda apparatus to name and shame
those who cross the line. In addition to facing a very real risk of detention or even torture, activists now
have to contend with the possibility that they will be paraded onto television and forced to confess their
alleged misdeeds. In May 2014, for example, CCTV broadcast the confession of investigative journalist Gao
Yu. Though Gao later recanted the confession, which she claimed was coerced, she was nonetheless
convicted of leaking state secrets in April of this year and sentenced to seven years in jail. The July
12Peoples Dailyattack on rights lawyers is but the latest example of the partys increased use of official
media outlets to blacken the name of its critics.
Taisu is right that there are too many prior precedents for this sort of thing. But it does seem that, over the
past two years, the party has been reaching for this tool more often.
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ChinasRulebyLawTakesanUglyTurn|ForeignPolicy
The problem is that the use of the media to smear activists cuts both ways. True, such stories do send a
strong message that the party will hit back, hard, against those it views as a threat to one-party rule. On the
other hand, anti-activist diatribes also publicize the partys bare-knuckle tactics while at the same time
highlighting the good works of the rights lawyers and activists whose reputations are being savaged.How
many netizens, upon seeing Wang Yus name in the official media, jumped the Great Firewall to learn
more about her?And how many young Chinese, reading about Wang Yus harsh treatment, shook their
head in sadness over the partys abusive handling of her case?
As the Chinese economy slows, the party is looking for alternative sources of legitimacy: in the absence of
robust economic growth, it needs to find new selling points for its rule. As it does so, the Party should
think about how the public reacts to its heavy reliance on repression. Keith may be right that the recent
crackdown highlights the partys strength. But if current trends continue, the party could find itself, in
terms of reputation, much weaker.
Photo credit: AFP/Getty Images
THESE ARE THE TOP 10 MOVES MADE BY NEW YORK METS GM SANDY ALDERSON IN 2013
RANT SPORTS
http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/07/14/chinasrulebylawtakesanuglyturnrightslawyerscrackdownxijinping/
10/12
jacques delisle is the Stephen A. Cozen Professor of Law and Professor of Political Science,
as well as Deputy Director of the Center for the Study of Contemporary China, at the University of
Pennsylvania. He can be reached at <jdelisle@law.upenn.edu>.
1 Xi Jinping Pledges to Implement Rule of Law, China Daily, December 4, 2012; Communiqu
of the Third Plenum of the 18th Central Committee, November 12, 2013, par. 14; and Central
Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, Decision Concerning Some Major Questions in
Comprehensively Deepening Reform, November 12, 2013, XII.47, IX.30.
[ 23 ]
asia policy
Questions, II.4.
[ 25 ]
asia policy
5 Communiqu of the Fourth Plenum of the 18th Central Committee, October 23, 2014, par. 10, 12.
[ 26 ]
disciplinary system remains the gatekeeper to prosecution and when the top
leadership can control the narrative in high-profile cases, as occurred with
Bo Xilai and Zhou Yongkang.
asia policy
heterodox and critical viewsand legal rules and practices that accord them
some protectionis not, per se, unacceptable to the regime. But those who
appear to a wary leadership to pose incipient threats to cross the line into
organized action or political mobilization face a stern response, including
through legal measures that are an important tool of party rule, wielded by
what the Fourth Plenum communiqu labeledin a disconcerting echo of
Mao-era languagerule of law work teams.6
Even at this relatively early stage, there are signs of limitations to and
pushback against features of the emerging Xi-era version of ruling by law.
China now has a substantial cohort of legally trained elites who are to varying
degrees drawn to more expansive, liberal, and state-constraining notions
of law. They include law professors and public policy intellectuals, who
range from government advisers to near-dissident stars of the blogosphere;
hundreds of thousands of lawyers and many more law degree-holders who
have internalized rule of law ideassometimes through study or practice
abroadand who are frustrated by officials who have little respect for law
and courts that fail to dispense justice under the law; and the much-battered
but remarkably resilient group of rights protection lawyers. The aggrieved in
Chinawhether they are economic winners or losersnow formulate their
complaints in legal terms and seek legal remedies. In Chinas online world,
legal cases have become causes clbres. Chinese netizens often criticize
official views of law, and sometimes embrace expansive views of citizens
rights and legal accountability for the party and state. The 2013 party
directive proscribing discussion of values related to the rule of law and the
2015 admonition against teaching Western ideas have encountered private
ridicule and brave public opposition at law schools, on university campuses,
in the media, in cyberspace, and beyond.
Chinas rulers seem predisposed to give law a limited role in Xis
signature anticorruption drive; determined to reject law-centered efforts
to liberalize, democratize, or otherwise transform Chinas politics; and
committed to using law against those who would organize to push for such
change. But their approach faces limitations. These include limitations
born of this approachs own ambivalence, the legacy of a generation of legal
reforms, and significant resistance from those committed to or with stakes
in more expansive, liberal, or democratic notions of law. Chinas leaders thus
still can make their countrys legal order, but they cannot make it entirely as
they please.
[ 29 ]
8/1/2015
ChinaensuresZhouYongkangtrialstickstothescriptFT.com
Lastupdated:June12,20154:29pm
ChinaensuresZhouYongkangtrialstickstothe
script
TomMitchellinBeijing
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AFP
twassupposedtobeChinassecondtrialofthecenturyinasmanyyears.However,on
ThursdaynightaChinesecourtannouncedthatZhouYongkang,thehighestprofilevictim
ofPresidentXiJinpingsanticorruptioncampaign,hadbeensentencedtolifeimprisonment
afterbeingtriedinsecretonMay22.
Zhouscloseddoortrialandlifesentenceforchargesrelatedtocorruption,abuseofpower
andrevealingstatesecretsdashedexpectationsthattheproceedingswouldbeatleast
partiallytransparent,allowingMrXitoclaimthattheChineseCommunistpartyhadsecured
anunprecedentedconvictionwhilealsoadvancingtheruleoflaw.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/436d9c3610cb11e5841300144feabdc0.html#axzz3hbpD0QK6
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8/1/2015
ChinaensuresZhouYongkangtrialstickstothescriptFT.com
Suchexpectationswerelargelybasedonthefactthat,inAugust2013,authoritiesopeneda
smallwindowontothetrialofBoXilai,aZhouallyandrivaltoMrXiduringChinaslast
rotationofpartyandgovernmentleaders.InBoscase,reporterswereallowedtogatherina
separatefacilitynearhiscourtroomwheretheycouldmonitoraneditedtranscriptofthe
proceedings.
Evenwithsuchrestrictions,apartiallypublictrialofZhouwouldhavesetthestageforChinas
mostdramaticcourtproceedingsinceMaoZedongswidow,JiangQing,railedagainst
prosecutorsin1980,famouslysayingthatshewasjustChairmanMaosdogwhobitwhoever
heaskedmetobite.
LikeMadameMao,however,Bodidnotkeeptothescript.Theonetimepartybossof
Chongqinglashedoutatgovernmentwitnessesincludinghiswife,whowasseparately
convictedofkillingaBritishbusinessman,andhisformerpolicechief,sheddingunflattering
lightontheprivatelifeofoneofChinaselitepoliticalfamilies.Boalsodidnotconfessorshow
remorseandlaterappealedhisconviction.
Theparty,manyanalystsbelieve,didnotwanttoriskanysimilarembarrassmentswithZhou,
whoasaretiredmemberoftheallpowerfulPolitburoStandingCommitteeandformerheadof
thecountrysinternalsecurityforcessimplyknewtoomuch.
TheBoXilaitrialendedupbeingverymessyfromthepartyspointofview,saysJoseph
Fewsmith,aChinaexpertatBostonUniversity.Ithadnodesiretorepeatthatexercise,as
goodasitwouldhavebeenforadvertisingtheruleoflaw.
Zhoustrialwasconductedbehindcloseddoorsonthebasisthatitinvolvedfivevery
confidentialdocumentsandanotherconfidentialone,whichheallegedlypassedtoan
unauthorisedpersonidentifiedbytheofficialXinhuanewsagencyasCaoYongzheng.
ButZhouwasultimatelysentencedtojustfouryearsonthatcharge,whichthecourtsaiddid
nothaveveryseriousconsequences.Ontheothercountshewassentencedtosevenyears
imprisonmentforabuseofpowerandreceivedalifesentenceforcorruption.
MrCaohaspreviouslybeendescribedbystatemediaasanoilexecutivewhoseinitialclaimto
famewashisabilitytotreatincurablediseasesandtellpeoplesfortunes.Hecouldnotbe
reachedforcomment.
WhileitisnotclearwhatsecretsZhouleakedorwhatthefortunetellertoldhim,thereisalong
historyinChinaofsuperstitiousemperorsseekingoutpeoplewhocandivinefortunes.
Chineseleadershavealwayslovedthesekindsofpeople,saysZhangLifan,ahistorian.Itisa
historicaltraditionandtheChineseCommunistpartyisnodifferent.Itisasignoftheirlackof
confidence.
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ChinaensuresZhouYongkangtrialstickstothescriptFT.com
WhiletryingZhouinprivatemayhavesavedthepartyfrommoreembarrassingrevelations,it
alsodeniedMrXianopportunitytohighlightthetrialasevidenceofhisadministrations
statedcommitmenttobuildafairandtransparentlegalsystem.
AsecrettrialwasnotXisdesiredresult,itwashisPlanB,saysSteveTsangatNottingham
UniversityintheUK.Apublictrialwouldhavesentaclear,powerfulmessagethattheparty
hadcleaneditselfupandhaddoneitthroughthesocalledruleoflaw.
TheBoXilaitrial
endedupbeingvery
messyfromthepartys
pointofview.Ithadno
desiretorepeatthat
exercise
JosephFewsmith,Chinaexpert
atBostonUniversity
ManypeoplebelievethatZhousrealcrimewastohave,inleague
withBo,opposedMrXisrisetopowerinthefirstplace.Theynote
thatotherelitepoliticalfamilieswhosemembershaveamassed
largefortunesinChinahavenotbeentargetedbytheanti
corruptioncampaign.
InitsannualreporttoChinasparliamentinMarch,theSupreme
PeoplesCourtallegedthatZhouandBohadtrampledontherule
oflaw,underminedpartysolidarityandengagedin[unauthorised]
politicalactivities.
Zhouwastargetedbecausehewasathreat,onepersonwithtiestotheleadershipsays,
addingthattheanticorruptioncampaignappliesdifferentruleswheninvestigatingChinas
mostpowerfulfamilies.Atthatlevel,ifyourenotathreatyourenotatarget.
ZhoustrialwasaboutloyaltytoXiandcontrol,agreesProfTsang.Justicehasgotnothingto
dowithit.Justiceisincidental.
AdditionalreportingbyWanLi
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ESSAY
The capture of a Chinese Imperial Dragon Standard at the Battle of Chusan during the First Opium
War. Painting by Malcolm Greensmith.
Every July, amid festivities and fireworks, the U.S. and France mark their birth as nations.
Accustomed as we are in the West to histories that begin with triumphthe signing of the
Declaration of Independence, the storming of the Bastilleit may seem strange that China, the
fast-rising dynamo of the East, marks the beginning of its journey to modern nationhood in a very
different way: with the shock of unexpected defeat and the loss of national greatness.
Many Chinese date the start of their modern history to Aug. 11, 1842, when the Qing Dynasty, by
signing the Treaty of Nanjing, capitulated to Great Britain in order to end the disastrous First
Opium War (1839-42). It was from this and many other subsequent defeats that China's political
elitesincluding the most progressive 20th-century reformers and revolutionarieswove an
entire national narrative of foreign exploitation and victimization. Even today, this fabric of ideas
continues to hold powerful sway over China's relations with the rest of the world.
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The artifacts of China's formative moment can be seen at the Temple of the Tranquil Seas, which
sits on a narrow slice of land in the northwest part of Nanjing on the banks of the Yangtze River. It
was here, in the oppressive heat of August 1842, that Chinese negotiators were forced to sit with
their British counterparts and hammer out the crushing terms of the treaty. The negotiating
chamber in the old temple has now been restored to something resembling its original state. A
nearby exhibition covers the painful history of "China's unequal treaties," which imposed
territorial concessions and onerous indemnities that remained in force until the 1940s.
The Temple of the Tranquil Seas serves as a curious porthole into this bitter past of foreign
incursion and exploitation, from which both the Nationalist and Chinese Communist parties later
constructed their ideologies. As the historical exhibit's first panel explains: "Those unequal treaties
were like fettering ropes of humiliation that made China lose control of her political and military
affairs. It was one of the major causes that rendered China poor and weak in modern history
and has become a symbol of the commencement of China's modern history."
For Chinese reformers, however, there was, in this record of impotence and inferiority, also a
paradoxical promise of redemption. Being overwhelmed by materially stronger but culturally
inferior foreign powersChinese leaders called them "barbarians"may have been a profound
humiliation, but it also served as motivation for China to regenerate itself as a great power. As
Mao Zedong declared in founding the People's Republic in 1949, "The Chinese have always been a
great courageous and industrious nation; it is only in modern times that they have fallen behind.
Ours will no longer be a nation subject to insult and humiliation."
This morality play continues to shape the Chinese imagination. As the last panel in the exhibit
room of the Temple of Tranquil Seas explains: "It is hard to look back upon this humiliating
history. But the abolishment of the unequal treaties has shown the Chinese people's unwavering
spirit of struggle for independence and self-strengthening. To feel shame is to approach courage."
In this authorized version of modern Chinese history, 1842 is Year One. Every Chinese highschool student is expected to know the official narrative dividing Chinese history neatly into preOpium War and post-Opium War periods. It is China's counterpart to the familiar American
exercise of learning the preamble of the Declaration of Independence.
To fully appreciate the trauma of these historical experiences, one must understand not just the
shock of China's defeat in the First Opium War but also the cascade of further defeats that soon
followed. Historically, the Chinese had very little experience in questioning the fundamental
assumptions of their culture and ways of governance. When imperial officials finally began to
understand that their country had become the hapless "sick man of Asia," in the words of Liang
Qichao, a towering intellectual figure at the turn of the last century, they established an abiding
view of China as having been preyed upon by its foreign rivals.
Today, the psychological and cultural habits developed during this dismal era of Chinese history
continue to color and distort China's relations with the rest of the world, especially the U.S., which
has taken the place of Great Britain as the world's superpower. In one of his first speeches as
General Secretary of the Communist Party, President Xi Jinping recollected the "unusual hardship
and sacrifice" suffered by his country in modern times. "But the Chinese people have never given
in," Mr. Xi continued.
The historical memories on display at the Temple of the Tranquil Seas have had positive effects as
well. One can hear their echo in China's determination to rejuvenate itself regain wealth and
power, and become a nation of consequence once again. It is this urge that Mr. Xi tries to
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A version of this article appeared July 13, 2013, on page C3 in the U.S. edition of The Wall Street
Journal, with the headline: A Rising China Needs a New National Story.
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CCPCentralCommitteeDecisionconcerningSomeMajorQuestionsinComprehensivelyMovingGoverningtheCountryAccordingtothelawForward
CCPCentralCommitteeDecisionconcerningSomeMajorQuestionsinComprehensivelyMoving
GoverningtheCountryAccordingtothelawForward
POSTEDONOCTOBER28,2014 UPDATEDONOCTOBER30,2014
Translationcomplete,withthecooperationofJeremyDaum
Passedon23Octoberatthe4thPlenarySessionofthe18thCentralCommitteeoftheChineseCommunistParty
Inordertoimplementthestrategicdeploymentmadeatthe18thPartyCongressandacceleratetheconstructionofa
Socialistruleoflawcountry,the4thPlenarySessionofthe18thCentralCommitteehasconsideredsomemajorquestions
incomprehensivelymovingrulingthecountryaccordingtothelawforward,andmadethefollowingDecision.
I,PersistinmarchingthepathofSocialistruleoflawwithChinesecharacteristics,buildaSocialistruleoflawsystemwith
Chinesecharacteristics.
Rulingthecountryaccordingtothelawisanessentialrequirementandimportantguaranteeforpersistinginanddeveloping
SocialismwithChinesecharacteristics,anditisaninevitablerequirementtorealizethemodernizationofthenational
governingsystemandgoverningability,itaffectsourPartysgoverningandrejuvenatingthecountry,itaffectsthepeoples
welfare,peaceandhealth,anditaffectsthelongtermpeaceandorderofthePartyandthecountry.
TocomprehensivelybuildamoderatelyprosperoussocietyandrealizetheChineseDreamofthegreatrejuvenationofthe
Chinesenation,comprehensivelydeepenreform,perfectanddeveloptheSocialistsystemwithChinesecharacteristics
andraisethePartysgoverningabilityandgovernancelevels,wemustcomprehensivelymoverulingthecountryaccording
tothelawforward.
OurcountryisintheprimarystageofSocialism,thecomprehensiveconstructionofamoderatelyprosperoussocietyhas
enteredadecisivestage,reformhasenteredaphaseofassaultandaregionofdeepwater,internationalcircumstances
arecomplexandmercurial,ourPartyisfacingreform,developmentandstabilitytasksthatareunprecedentedlyheavy,and
contradictions,risksandchallengesinunprecedentednumbers,thepositionofrulingthecountryaccordingtothelawhas
becomemoreprominentintheoverallpictureoftheworkofthePartyandthecountry,anditsrulemoreimportant.Inthe
faceofnewcircumstancesandnewtasks,ourPartymustevenbetterdealwithboththedomesticandinternationalbig
pictures,evenbettersafeguardandutilizethisimportantperiodofstrategicopportunityforourcountrysdevelopment,even
bettercomprehensivelyplansocialforces,balancesocialinterests,adjustsocialrelationshipsandstandardizesocialacts,
toensurethatourcountryssocietyisfullofvitalityaswellaswellorderedduringprofoundchange,torealizeeconomic
development,politicalpeace,culturalglory,socialjusticeandecologicalwelfare,andtorealizethestrategicobjectiveof
ourcountryspeacefuldevelopment,wemustgiveevenbetterreintotheguidinganddrivingroleoftheruleoflaw.
OurPartygiveshighregardtotheconstructionofruleoflaw.Foralongperiod,andespeciallysincethe3rdPlenumofthe
11thPartyCongress,ourPartyhasprofoundlysummarizedthesuccessfulexperiencesandprofoundlessonsofour
countrysSocialistruleoflawconstruction,andhasputforwardthattheruleoflawmustbestrengthened,anditmustbe
ensuredthatdemocracyisinstitutionalizedandlegalizedtoguaranteethepeoplesdemocracy,itmaderulingthecountry
accordingtothelawintoabasicstrategyofthePartysleadingthepeopleandgoverningthecountry,itmadegoverning
accordingtothelawintoabasicmethodforthePartytogovernthecountry,itvigorouslybuiltSocialistruleoflawand
madehistoricalachievements.Atpresent,theSocialistlegalsystemwithChinesecharacteristicshasbeenformed,and
theconstructionofaruleoflawgovernmentisbeingmovedforwardsteadily,thejudicialsystemisincessantlybeing
perfected,andtheruleoflawconsciousnessoftheentiresocietyisclearlystrengthening.
data:text/htmlcharset=utf8,%3Ch3%20style%3D%22margin%3A%200px%200px%204px%3B%20fontfamily%3A%20Cutive%2C%20Georgia%2C%20'Tim
1/20
8/7/2015
CCPCentralCommitteeDecisionconcerningSomeMajorQuestionsinComprehensivelyMovingGoverningtheCountryAccordingtothelawForward
Atthesametime,wemustsoberlybeawarethat,incomparisonwiththedevelopmentneedsoftheundertakingsofthe
PartyandtheState,incomparisonwiththeexpectationsofthepopularmasses,andincomparisonwithmovingrulingthe
countryaccordingtothelawforwardandmodernizingourgoverningability,ruleoflawconstructionstilldisplaysmany
problemswhereitisnotadaptedorunsuited,whichismainlymanifestedas:somelawsandregulationshavenotbeenable
tocompletelyreflectobjectivelawsandthewillofthepeople,theyarenotstrongintermsoffocusorfeasibility,thereare
tendenciesofdepartmentalizationinlegislativework,turfbattlesandshiftingofresponsibilityarerelativelyprominentthe
phenomenathatlawsexistbutarenotfollowed,lawenforcementisnotstrictandlawbreakersarentpunishedare
relativelygrave,separationofpowersandresponsibilitiesinthelawenforcementmultiheadedlawenforcementand
selectivelawenforcementstillexist,lawenforcementandthejudiciaryarequiteprominentlynotstandardized,notstrict,
nottransparentanduncivilized,themassesstronglyreactagainsttheproblemsofjudicialunfairnessandcorruptionthe
consciousnessofanumberofmembersofsocietytoabidebythelaw,trustinthelaw,respectthelaw,usethelaw,and
safeguardtheirrightsaccordingtothelawisnotstrong,someStatepersonnelandespeciallyleadingcadres
consciousnessabouthandlingaffairsaccordingtothelawisnotstrong,andtheirabilitiesareinsufficient,anditstilloccurs
thatlawsareknowinglyviolated,oneswordreplacesthelaw,thelawissuppressesthroughpower,andthelawisbentfor
relativesandfriends.TheseproblemsviolatetheprinciplesofSocialistruleoflaw,harmtheinterestsofthepopular
masses,impedethedevelopmentoftheundertakingsofthePartyandthecountry,andwemustspendgreateffortsto
resolvethem.
Tocompletelymoverulingthecountryaccordingtothelawforward,wemustimplementthespiritofthe18thParty
Congressandthe3rdPlenumofthe18thPartyCongress,holdhighthemagnificentbannerofSocialismwithChinese
characteristics,takeMarxismLeninism,MaoZedongThought,DengXiaopingTheory,theimportantThreeRepresents
thought,andthescientificdevelopmentviewasguidance,deeplystudythespiritoftheseriesofimportantspeechesby
GeneralSecretaryXiJinping,persistintheorganicunityoftheleadershipoftheParty,thepeoplemasteringtheirown
affairs,andrulingthecountryaccordingtothelaw,unwaveringlymarchthepathofSocialistruleoflawwithChinese
characteristics,firmlyupholdtheauthorityoftheConstitutionandthelaws,protectthepeoplesrightsandinterests
accordingtothelaw,protectsocialfairnessandjustice,protectnationalsecurityandstability,andprovidepowerfulruleof
lawguaranteestorealizetheTwoCenturiesstruggleobjectiveandtorealizetheChineseDreamofthegreatrejuvenation
oftheChinesenation.
Thegeneralobjectivestocomprehensivelymoverulingthecountryaccordingtothelawforwardareconstructinga
SocialistruleoflawsystemwithChinesecharacteristicsandconstructingaSocialistruleoflawcountry.Thatistosay,
undertheleadershipoftheChineseCommunistParty,persistinginthesystemofSocialismwithChinesecharacteristics,
implementingthetheoryofSocialistruleoflawwithChinesecharacteristics,shapingaperfectsystemoflegalnorms,a
highlyeffectivesystemtoimplementtheruleoflaw,astrictsystemforruleoflawsupervision,andapowerfulsystemof
ruleoflawguarantees,shapingaperfectsystemofintraPartyregulations,persistinginmovingrulingthecountry
accordingtothelaw,governingaccordingtothelawandadministrationaccordingtothelawforwardtogether,persistinthe
unitedconstructionofaruleoflawcountry,aruleoflawgovernmentandaruleoflawsociety,realizingscientific
legislation,strictlawenforcement,judicialfairnessandrespectforthelawamongtheentirepopulation,andmoveforward
themodernizationofthenationalgoverningsystemandourgoverningability.
Torealizethesegeneralobjectives,wemustpersistinthefollowingprinciples.
PersistingintheleadershipoftheChineseCommunistParty.TheleadershipofthePartyisthemostessentialtraitof
SocialismwithChinesecharacteristics,andisthemostfundamentalguaranteeforSocialistruleoflaw.LettingParty
leadershippenetrateintotheentireprocessandallaspectsofrulingthecountrytothelawisabasicexperienceofthe
constructionofourcountrysSocialistruleoflaw.OurcountrysConstitutionhasestablishedtheleadingpositionofthe
data:text/htmlcharset=utf8,%3Ch3%20style%3D%22margin%3A%200px%200px%204px%3B%20fontfamily%3A%20Cutive%2C%20Georgia%2C%20'Tim
ChineseCommunistParty.PersistinginPartyleadershipisabasicneedforSocialistruleoflaw,itiswherethe
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CCPCentralCommitteeDecisionconcerningSomeMajorQuestionsinComprehensivelyMovingGoverningtheCountryAccordingtothelawForward
foundationsandthelifelineofthePartyandtheStatelie,theinterestsandhappinessofthepeopleofallethnicitiesinthe
entirecountryaretiedtoit,anditisaproperelementofmovingrulingthecountryaccordingtothelawforward.Party
leadershipandSocialistruleoflawareidentical,SocialistruleoflawmustpersistinPartyleadership,Partyleadership
mustrelyonSocialistruleoflaw.Onlybyrulingthecountryaccordingtothelawandrigorouslyenforcingthelawunderthe
leadershipoftheParty,willitbepossibletofullyrealizethatthepeoplearemastersoftheirownaffairs,andwillitbe
possibletomovethelegalizationofthelifeofthecountryandthesocietyforwardinanorderlymanner.Governance
accordingtothelawrequiresthatthePartygovernsthecountryonthebasisoftheConstitutionandthelaws,andrequires
thatthePartymanagesthePartyandgovernsthePartyaccordingtointraPartyregulations.WemustpersistintheParty
leadinglegislation,guaranteeinglawenforcement,supportingthejudiciaryandtakingtheleadinrespectingthelaw,unite
thebasicstrategyofrulingthecountryaccordingtothelawwiththebasicmethodofgoverningaccordingtothelaw,unite
thePartysgeneralresponsibilityfortheoverallpictureandcoordinatingallsideswithPeoplesCongresses,governments,
consultativeconferences,trialbodiesandprosecutorialbodiescarryingouttheirdutiesandconductingtheirworkaccording
tothelawandaccordingtotheircharters,unitetheConstitutionformulatedandimplementedbythepeopleunderthe
leadershipofthePartywiththePartypersistinginactingwithinthescopeoftheConstitutionandthelaw,begoodat
makingthePartysstandpointsbecomethenationalwillthroughstatutoryprocedures,begoodatensuringthatthe
candidatesrecommendedbyPartyorganizationsbecomeleadersinStatepoliticalbodiesthroughstatutoryprocedures,be
goodatimplementingPartyleadershipoverthecountryandsocietythroughStatepoliticalbodies,andbegoodatutilizing
democraticcentralistprinciplestosafeguardtheauthorityoftheCentre,andsafeguardtheunityoftheentirePartyandthe
entirecountry.
Persistinginthedominantpositionofthepeople.Thepeoplearethesubjectsofandsourceofstrengthforrulingthe
countryaccordingtothelaw,thePeoplesCongresssystemisthefundamentalpoliticalsystemthatguaranteesthatthe
peoplearethemastersoftheirownaffairs.Wemustpersistinthefactthatruleoflawconstructionisforthepeople,relies
onthepeople,benefitsthepeopleandprotectsthepeople,makeguaranteeingthepeoplesbasicrightsandinterestsintoa
startingpointandstopoverpoint,guaranteethatthepeopleenjoybroadrightsandfreedomsaccordingtothelaw,bearthe
dutiestheyshould,safeguardsocialfairnessandjustice,andstimulatecommonprosperity.Wemustguaranteethatthe
people,undertheleadershipoftheParty,andaccordingtotheprovisionsofthelaw,managetheaffairsofStatethrough
variouschannelsandforms,manageeconomicandculturalundertakings,andmanagesocialaffairs.Wemustmakethe
peopleunderstandthatthelawisapowerfultooltoguaranteetheirownrights,andisabehaviouralstandardthatmustbe
respected,strengthentheconsciousnessintheentiresocietyaboutlearningthelaw,respectingthelaw,abidingbythelaw
andusingthelaw,andensurethatthepeoplemaster,respectandusethelaw.
Persistinginthefactthatallareequalinthefaceofthelaw.EqualityisabasiccharacteristicofSocialistlaw.Any
organizationorindividualmustrespecttheauthorityoftheConstitutionandthelaws,andmustactwithinthescopeofthe
Constitutionandthelaws,theymustallexercisetheirpowersandrights,andcarryouttheirdutiesandresponsibilities
accordingtothelaw,nonemayhaveprivilegesoutsideoftheConstitutionandthelaws.Wemustsafeguardtheunity,
dignityandauthorityoftheStatelegalsystem,andrealisticallyguaranteetheeffectiveimplementationoftheConstitution
andthelaws,wemayabsolutelynotpermitanypersontolettheirwordreplacethelaw,usetheirpowertosuppressthe
law,orbendthelawforfriendsorrelativesunderanyexcuseandinanyway.Wemustmakestandardizingandrestraining
publicpowerintoafocuspoint,expandsupervisionstrength,ensurethattheremustberesponsibilitywherethereispower,
theremustbesupervisionovertheuseofpower,andthatlawbreakingmustbepunished,firmlycorrectingactswherelaws
arenotfollowed,lawenforcementisnotstrict,andlawbreakersarenotpunished.
Persistinginintegratingrulingthecountryaccordingtothelawandrulingthecountryaccordingtovirtue.Stateandsocial
governancerequirethatbothlawandvirtueplayaroletogether.Wemustpersistingraspingtheruleoflawononehand,
andtheruleofvirtuewiththeotherhand,forcefullycarryforwardtheSocialistcorevaluesystem,carryforwardChinas
data:text/htmlcharset=utf8,%3Ch3%20style%3D%22margin%3A%200px%200px%204px%3B%20fontfamily%3A%20Cutive%2C%20Georgia%2C%20'Tim
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traditionalvirtue,fostersocialmorals,professionalethicsandhouseholdvirtues,Payattentiontothenormativeroleoflaw
8/7/2015
CCPCentralCommitteeDecisionconcerningSomeMajorQuestionsinComprehensivelyMovingGoverningtheCountryAccordingtothelawForward
aswellastheeducationalroleofvirtue,reflectmoralconceptsintheruleoflaw,strengthenthestimulatingimpactoflaw
onmoralityconstruction,nourishthespiritofruleoflawwithvirtue,strengthenthesupportingroleofvirtueinlegalculture,
realizethatlawandvirtuecomplementeachother,andthattheruleoflawandtheruleofvirtueeachmakeeachother
appearmorebrilliant.
PersistinginstartingfromChinasreality.Thepath,theoreticalsystemandstructureofSocialismwithChinese
characteristicsarefundamentallodestarsforcomprehensivelymovingrulingthecountryaccordingtothelawforward.We
muststartfromourcountrysbasiccircumstances,adapttotheincessantdeepeningofreformandopeningup,summarize
andusethesuccessfulexperienceofthePartyleadingthepeopleincarryingoutruleoflaw,focusonmajortheoreticaland
practicalquestionsintheconstructionofSocialistruleoflaw,moveruleoflawtheoryinnovationforward,developSocialist
ruleoflawtheorythatisadaptedtoChinasrealities,hasChinesecharacteristics,andreflectssocialdevelopmentlaws,to
providetheoreticalguidanceandacademicsupportforrulingthecountryaccordingtothelaw.Drawfromthequintessence
ofChineselegalculture,learnfrombeneficialexperiencesinruleoflawabroad,butwecanabsolutelynotindiscriminately
copyforeignruleoflawconceptsandmodels.
Comprehensivelymovingrulingthecountryaccordingtothelawforwardisasystemicproject,itisabroadandprofound
revolutionintheareaofStategovernance,andrequireslongterm,arduousefforts.ComradesintheentirePartymusteven
moreconsciouslypersistinrulingthecountryaccordingtothelaw,andmoverulingthecountryaccordingtothelaw
forwardevenmorefirmly,theymuststrivetorealizethelegalizationofallworkaffairsoftheState,andprogress
incessantlytowardstheconstructionofaruleoflawChina.
II,PerfectaSocialistlegalsystemwithChinesecharacteristics,withtheConstitutionatthecentre,strengthenthe
implementationoftheConstitution.
Lawsareimportanttoolstorulethecountry,benevolentlawsarethepreconditionforgoodgovernance.Toconstructa
SocialistlegalsystemwithChinesecharacteristics,wemustpersistingivingprecedencetolegislation,givingreintothe
guidinganddrivingroleoflegislation,andgraspthecrucialmatterofraisinglegislativequality.Wemustscrupulouslyabide
bytheideasofputtingpeoplefirstandlegislatingforthesakeofthepeople,implementtheSocialistcorevaluesystem,
ensurethateverypieceoflegislationconformstothespiritofthelaw,reflectsthepopularwillandisendorsedbythe
people.Wemustlettheprinciplesoffairness,justiceandtransparencypenetrateintotheentireprocessoflegislation,
perfectlegislativesystemsandmechanisms,persistinsimultaneouslycarryingoutlegislation,revision,abolitionand
interpretation,strengthenthetimeliness,systemicnature,focusandeffectivenessoflawsandregulations.
(1)Completingconstitutionalimplementationandsupervisionsystems.TheConstitutionistheconcentratedreflectionof
thewillofthePartyandthepeople,andisthefundamentallawformedthroughaprocessofscientificdemocracy.To
persistinrulingthecountryaccordingtothelaw,wemustfirstandforemostpersistinrulingthecountryaccordingtothe
Constitution,topersistingoverningaccordingtothelaw,wemustfirstandforemostpersistingoverningaccordingtothe
Constitution.Thepeopleofallethnicitiesintheentirecountry,allStatebodiesandarmedforces,allpoliticalpartiesandall
socialorganizations,allenterprises,undertakingsandgroupsmustconsidertheConstitutionasthebasicbehavioural
norm,andbearthedutyofupholdingthedignityoftheConstitutionandguaranteeingtheimplementationofthe
Constitution.AllactsviolatingtheConstitutionmustbepunishedandcorrected.
PerfecttheconstitutionalsupervisionsystemoftheNationalPeoplesCongressanditsStandingCommittee,complete
proceduresandmechanismsforconstitutionalinterpretation.Strengthenfilingandreviewsystemsandcapacitybuilding,
bringallnormativedocumentsintothescopeoffilingandreview,cancelandcorrectnormativedocumentsthatviolatethe
Constitutionorthelawaccordingtothelaw,itisprohibitedthatlocalitiesformulateandissuedocumentsofalegislative
data:text/htmlcharset=utf8,%3Ch3%20style%3D%22margin%3A%200px%200px%204px%3B%20fontfamily%3A%20Cutive%2C%20Georgia%2C%20'Tim
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Home
Contributors
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Conversation
Suisheng Zhao
Suisheng Zhao is Professor and
Director of the Center for
China-U.S. Cooperation at
Josef Korbel School of
International Studies,
University of Denver. He was
a Campbell National Fellow at
the Hoover...
More
Arthur R. Kroeber
Arthur R. Kroeber is Managing
Director of GaveKal
Dragonomics, an independent
global economic research firm,
and Editor of its journal, China
Economic Quarterly. He is a
non-resident senior fellow of...
More
A guard at the entrance of the Great Hall of the People during the second plenary session of China's
parliament on March 8, 2015.
On March 7, The Wall Street Journal published an opinion piece by David Shambaugh arguing that
the endgame of Chinese communist rule has now begun...and it has progressed further than many
think. Shambaugh laid out a variety of signs he believes indicate a regime on the cusp of failure. Do
you agree with his assessment? Why or why not? The Editors
Ho-fung Hung
Ho-fung Hung is an Associate
Professor of Sociology at
Johns Hopkins University. He
researches global political
economy, protest, and
nationalism. He is the author
of the award-winning Protest
with...
More
Responses
Tuesday, March 10, 2015 - 11:08pm
agree with Shambaugh to the extent that the C.C.P. regime is in crisis.
But the regime has muddled through one crisis after another, including the
catastrophes of the Cultural Revolution and the Tiananmen crackdown,
by tackling its symptoms. It is too difficult to predict the arrival of the cracking
Suisheng Zhao
Howard W. French
Howard W. French is an
Associate Professor at the
Columbia Journalism School,
where he teaches journalism
and photography. He was a
freelance reporter for T he
Washington Post, and many
other...
More
up moment now.
The current crisis came after more than three decades of market-oriented
economic reform under the one-party rule that has produced a corruptive state
capitalism in which power and money forge an alliance. The government officials and senior managers
in state-owned enterprises have formed strong and exclusive interest groups to pursue economic gains.
China ranks among the countries of the highest income inequality in the world at a time when China has
dismantled its social welfare state, leaving hundreds of millions of citizens without any or adequate
provision of healthcare, unemployment insurance, cost of education, and a variety of other social
services. In the meantime, China has become one of the world's most polluted countries. The crisis has
worsened as Chinas economic growth is slowing down and could come to a pause or even enter a
http://www.chinafile.com/conversation/china-really-cracking
Peter Mattis
Peter Mattis is currently a
Fellow with T he Jamestown
Foundation and a visiting
scholar at National Cheng-chi
University's Institute of
International Relations in
1/14
7/27/2015
downturn. The huge social, economic, and environmental costs China has paid for its rapid economic
growth could eventually derail China from its growth path. As the worsening economic, social, and
environmental problems cause deep discontent across society and lead many people to take to the
streets in protest, China has entered a period of deepening social tensions. Apparently, the Chinese
government is frightened and has relied more and more on coercive forces. The cracking up moment
could ultimately come when the economic growth has significantly slowed down and the government is
unable to sustain the regimes legitimacy with its economic performance.
While scholars such as Shambaugh are warning the coming of cracking up, President Xi Jinping is
unlikely unaware of the danger of possible collapse and has been doing his part to prevent it from
Ryan Mitchell
Ryan Mitchell is currently a
Mellon Foundation Humanities
Fellow and Ph.D. in Law
candidate at Yale University.
Previously, he worked as an
attorney on Chinese human
rights and legal development...
More
happening. Opposite from the prescription by liberal scholars and Western leaders, Xi has seen that the
key to keeping the C.C.P. in power is to further empower the authoritarian state led by the Communist
Party, reflecting the long struggle of the Chinese political elites in building and maintaining a powerful
state to lead Chinas modernization. Lucian Pye famously observed that China suffered a "crisis of
authority" in a deep craving for the decisive power of "truly effective authority" ever since the collapse
of the Chinese empire in the 19th century. Chinese elite attributed Chinas modern decline partially to
Chen Weihua
the weakening of the state authority. The authority crisis called for the creation of an authoritarian state
through revolution and nationalism. The Chinese communist revolution was a collective assertion for the
new form of authority and a strong state to build a prosperous Chinese nation. The very essence of the
C.C.P. legitimacy for the founding of the P.R.C. was partly based upon its ability to establish a
powerful state as an organizing and mobilizing force to defend the national independence and launch
modernization programs.
To rectify his predecessors overemphasis on the transformation of China through decentralization
reforms that weakened the states authority and the C.C.P. central leadership, President Xi has made
concentrated efforts to over-empower the authoritarian state. Repeatedly warning against
Westernization, Xi emphasizes a unified national ideal of the China Dream and has allowed the
Related Reading
"Is the Chinese Dragon Losing its Puff?" Sydney
M orning Herald, M arch 16, 2015
and powerful small leadership groups, such as the Central National Security Commission and the
Comprehensive Deepening Economic Reform Small Group, with himself as the head. Looking to Mao
Zedong for inspiration to manage the country, he launched the largest rectification and mass line
campaigns in decades to fight corruption. Describing Mao as a great figure who changed the face of
the nation and led the Chinese people to a new destiny, Xi has emerged as a champion of the partystate power, with himself at the top as a strongman.
Whether or not empowering the authoritarian state is a long-term solution to the current crisis, it seems
to have targeted some of its symptoms and temporarily silenced its liberal critics inside China. As a
result, it may help postpone the arrival of a cracking up moment at least for now. Suisheng Zhao
disagree with David Shambaugh. Neither China nor its Communist Party
is cracking up. I have three reasons for this judgment. First, none of the
Arthur R. Kroeber
Share
Shambaugh thinks the system is on its last legs because rich people are moving
assets abroad, Xi is cracking down on the media and academia, officials look bored in meetings,
724
303
corruption is rife, and the economy is at an impasse. This is not a persuasive case. True, many rich
Chinese are moving money abroad, both to find safe havens and to diversify their portfolios as China's
growth slows. But in aggregate, capital outflows are modest, and plenty of rich Chinese are still
investing in their own economy. Following an easing of rules, new private business registrations rose
45% last yearscarcely a sign that the entrepreneurial class has given up hope.
http://www.chinafile.com/conversation/china-really-cracking
2/14
7/27/2015
The crackdown on free expression and civil society is deeply distressing, but not necessarily a sign of
weakness. It could equally be seen as an assertion of confidence in the success of China's authoritariancapitalist model, and a rejection of the idea that China needs to make concessions to liberal-democratic
ideas to keep on going. It is also related to the crackdown on corruption, which Shambaugh wrongly
dismisses as a cynical power play. Corruption at the end of the Hu/Wen era had got out of control, and
posed a real risk of bringing down the regime. A relentless drive to limit corruption was essential to
stabilize the system, and this is precisely what Xi has delivered. It cannot work unless Xi can
demonstrate complete control over all aspects of the political system, including ideology.
As to the economy and the reform program, it is first worth pointing out that despite its severe
slowdown, China's economy continues to grow faster than that of any other major country in the world.
And claims that the reform program is sputtering simply do not square with the facts. Last year saw the
start of a crucial program to revamp the fiscal system (which has led to the start of restructuring local
government debt), first steps to liberalize the one-child policy and hukou system (discussed for years
but never achieved by previous governments), important changes in energy pricing, and linkage of the
Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets. News reports suggest that we will soon see a program to
reorganize big state owned enterprises (SOEs) under Temasek-like holding companies that will focus
on improving their flagging financial returns. These are all material achievements and compare favorably
to, for instance, the utter failure of Shinzo Abe to progress on any of the reform agenda for Japan he
outlined two years ago.
Finally, there is no evidence that the biggest and most important political constituency in Chinathe
rising urban bourgeoisiehas much interest in changing the system. In my conversations with members
of this class, I hear many complaints, but more generally a satisfaction with the material progress China
has made in the last two decades. Except for a tiny group of brave dissidents, this group in general
displays little interest in political reform and none in democracy. One reason may be that they find
uninspiring the record of democratic governance in other big Asian countries, such as India. More
important is probably the fear that in a representative system, the interests of the urban bourgeoisie (at
most 25% of the population) would lose out to those of the rural masses. The Party may well be
somewhat insecure, but the only force that might plausibly unseat it is more insecure still.
Predictions of Chinese political collapse have a long and futile history. Their persistent failure stems
from a basic conceptual fault. Instead of facing the Chinese system on its own terms and understanding
why it workswhich could create insights into why it might stop workingcritics judge the system
against what they would like it to be, and find it wanting. This embeds an assumption of fragility that
makes every societal problem look like an existential crisis. As a long-term resident of China, I would
love the government to become more open, pluralistic and tolerant of creativity. The fact that it refuses
to do so is disappointing to me and many others, but offers no grounds for a judgment of its weakness.
Seven years ago, in his excellent book China's Communist Party: Atrophy and Adaptation,
Shambaugh described the Party as "a reasonably strong and resilient institution....To be sure, it has its
problems and challenges, but none present the real possibility of systemic collapse." That was a good
judgment then, and it remains a good judgment now. Arthur Kroeber
agree with Shambaugh that there are serious cracks in the C.C.P.
Ho-fung Hung
regime, not only because of his arguments and evidence but also because
of his deep knowledge about and long-time access to the Partys elite.
Whether these cracks will lead to the end of C.C.P. rule, nevertheless, is
difficult to predict. The prediction about a C.C.P. endgame this time might end
up like the many unrealized predictions before. It may also be like the story of
cry wolf: The wolf didnt come the first two times but finally came when
nobody believed it would come. The bottom line is, the C.C.P. is facing very tough challenges that it
has not been seeing for decades. Whether and how it can weather them is uncertain.
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First, Xi is a leader who came to power with very few sources of legitimacy. Mao and Deng were
among the founding fathers of the Peoples Republic. Both Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao were handpicked
by Deng and got the backing of party elders at the moment of coming to power. Xi, despite his
princeling background, is the first leader who was chosen out of a delicate compromise among party
factions.
In the midst of Xis rise to power, there were, among others, the mysterious Wang Lijun incident,
followed by the unusual downfalls of Bo Xilai and Zhou Yongkang. What Wang Lijun actually told the
American diplomats during his sleepover in the U.S. Consulate in Chengdu, and what sensitive
information he eventually conveyed to the central government is still unknown. But the rumor that he
revealed, out of self-protection, a plot by other princelings to get rid of Xi through a coup does not
sound too out of whack. If this is true, then Xis frenetic purge of other factions in his anti-corruption
campaign makes sense as a desperate move to whip the disrespectful elite to submission through
creating a culture of terror within the Party.
Xis purges surely make new enemies and make most of the Party elite feel deeply anxious about their
fortunes. It wont be so surprising if some of those anxious elite conspire to find chance to depose Xi.
Such internal coup against unpopular leader is not alien to the C.C.P., with precedents of the downfall
of the Gang of Four and Hua Guofeng in the late 1970s.
Second, the Partys internal rift is unfolding at the worst possible time as far as the economy is
concerned. To be sure, a 7.4 percent annual growth rate is an enviable number to many other emerging
economies. But this figure needs to be understood in Chinas context. With the heavy and soaring
indebtedness of the Chinese economy and the ever aggravating unemployment problem, the Chinese
economy needs higher-speed growth to stay above water.
The debt hangover of the 2008-09 stimulus is worrying. Total debt to GDP ratio of China jumped from
147 percent in 2008 to over 282 percent now, according to a recent McKinsey report, and it is still
growing. It is a dangerously high level compared to other emerging economies. The economic
slowdown will lead to profit decline for companies and revenue shortfall for local governments,
increasing their difficulty in servicing and repaying debts. A vicious cycle of defaults and further growth
deceleration can turn a slowdown into something uglier. Hard landing or soft landing, the Chinese
economy is not flying any more. Chinas social tranquility and elite compromise over the last two
decades, both built upon a high-flying economy, could unravel.
It is well possible that the C.C.P. elite, no matter how much they dislike Xi and his anti-corruption
campaign, will still prefer not to rock the boat, as they are well aware that they are nobody without the
protection of the party-state institution, and their privileges will be under far greater threat in the wake
of a regime collapse. It is also possible that after all the years of pacification and domestication ever
since Tiananmen, Chinas civil society and dissidents became so timid and cornered that they are
incapable of taking advantage of any cracks in the regime.
Is Xi successfully increasing his grip of power through the anti-corruption campaign, or does his rule still
suffer from inadequate legitimacy behind the mask of invincibility? Only time can tell. But besides the
endgame of C.C.P. rule, we should also ponder at another possible scenario that can come out from
the current elite rift and economic landing: the rise of a hysteric and suffocating dictatorial regime which
effectively maintains its draconian control over a society gradually losing its dynamism. Perhaps we can
call this hypothetical regime a North Korea lite. Ho-fung Hung
Howard W. French
themselves.
It has been fascinating to watch what strikes this observer, at least, as a certain
betrayal of anxiety in the efforts of some of those who have rushed to take
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Shambaugh down, or at least refute and discredit his arguments. The notes
have ranged from how dare he? to who does this person think he is? to, in
some of the more breathless reactions, attacks on his motives: he is a pawn or
at least an unwitting agent of this or that occult force. Along the way,
Shambaughs good faith has been questioned; he becomes an actor on behalf
of America, or the West, which is said to be always trying bring China down,
or cast its political and economic model in doubt. (This extends, of course, to the limited Chinese
responses we have seen so far, such as that of the Global Times, which has responded with vilification,
forgetting perhaps that for decades a cherished recurrent theme in Chinese propaganda has been the
fundamentally flawed nature of Western democracy or capitalism, and, of course, its inevitable
demise.)
Before getting down to details, perhaps the first thing to be said is that it is impossible to appreciate
Shambaughs perspective without understanding where he comes from. Few among the first wave of
critics have credited him for his scholarship, other than to note that he is prominent or respected within
the academy. Few have explored the actual nature of his work over the years, or the findings he has
made in previous writings, such as Chinas Communist Party: Atrophy and Adaptation, a careful
study of how the Party responded to the shock of the demise of the Soviet Union and began reinventing
itself. Shambaugh gives enormous credit to the C.C.P. for these efforts, but it is clear by the time he
published his subsequent book, China Goes Global: The Partial Power, that the scholar had come
to the view that in many ways we have overestimated Chinas strengths and underestimated its
weaknesses. This is all worth spelling out because even if Shambaughs crackup theory surprised
you, it has clearly not come out of thin air; rather, it is the latest wrinkle in the evolving views of an
earnest scholar.
Perhaps the next most important point to be made, and it has not been heard enough in this discussion,
is that no one knows where China (or the world) is heading, say twenty, or even ten years down the
road. Mao oversaw rapprochement with the U.S. in order to counter the Soviet Union, and this can be
said to have brought capitalism to his country, which was clearly not his aim. Deng embraced
capitalism, and that can be said to have led to a near existential crisis for the Party around the issue of
democratization. The U.S. embraced China also in order to balance the Soviet Union, as well as, a bit
later, to seek markets. This ended up in the creation of what now appears ever more like a peer rival,
after a brief period of monopolarity in the world. Unintended, even undesirable consequences are the
name of the game in matters of state and in international affairs, and however assertive and determined
Xi Jinping may appear to us now, in the early phases of his rule, it is a safe bet that his drive to realize a
Chinese dream will produce many things he could never have dreamed ofor desired. It is also for the
least plausible that Xis remarkable apparent confidence is a kind of compensation for deep anxiety at
the top in China: a recognition that the country is walking a tightrope.
I defer to others on the specifics of Chinas known challenges, but a few points seem fairly obvious.
The early, and one might say easy, phase of Chinas takeoff is over. That period consisted in large
measure of stopping doing stupid things and inflicting damage on oneself. Moving forward now from
here becomes exponentially more difficult. This means finding a way to sustain relatively high growth
rates, when almost everything points to a natural, secular slowdown. It means coping with
environmental challenges on a scale never seen before. It means dealing with the emergence of a middle
class, and everything that political science suggests about the difficulties that this poses for authoritarian
regimes. It means finding a way through the middle income trap. It means restraining corruption that in
this view is, if anything, even worse, meaning more systemic, than commonly recognized. It means
coping with the accelerating balancing of nervous neighbors. It means somehow coping with issues of
ethnic and regional tensions and stark inequality. It means drastic and mostly unfavorable changes in
demography. And it means doing all of these things, and facing any number of other serious challenges
that space doesnt allow one to detail here, without the benefit of a coherent or appealing ideology
other than nationalism and, one says tentatively, budding personality cult-style leadership.
We dont know how this is going to turn out. For every success one can point to involving China, it is
easy to point to at least one stark and serious problem, or potential failing. I dont share Shambaughs
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confidence in predicting the demise of the Chinese Communist Party, but it does not strike this reader
as a reckless prediction. It should not surprise us, and neither should its opposite, Chinas continued
relative success. Such is the degree of uncertainty we must all live with. Howard French
Peter Mattis
6/14
7/27/2015
from the brink even as policymaking is harder. The more personalized Xi makes the party, the more
vulnerable the party will become to fights among the leadership, especially after he leaves the political
scene.
The consequences of these crises and whether the C.C.P. will fall are more difficult to estimate in
advance, because the nature of leadership divisions, such as the unity of the military and security
services, in a crisis cannot be foreseen. Nor do we know what impact the Peoples Liberation Armys
isolation from the party relative to the years of dual party-army elites will have on its behavior. If the
C.C.P. collapses under the strain of a leadership crisis, it will be because problems rapidly pile up or
cascade across the country. As Shakespeare wrote, When sorrows come, they come not single spies
but in battalions.
The C.C.P.s collapse is just one potential Chinese future, and one that cannot be dismissed out of
hand given the probable persistence of elite conflict. Nor would its collapse necessarily be a good thing.
Alternatives to the C.C.P. include anarchy and military dictatorship, and even a return to Maos kind of
tyrannical and oppressive leadership. Chinas future is a problem to consider soberly and seriously
without reveling in the potential for the C.C.P.s demise, as David Shambaugh has attempted. If he is
right, the bigger question about the partys fall is what to do in response. A foreseeable challenge is one
that requires preparation. Peter Mattis
Ryan Mitchell
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represents an appeal to a widely-shared set of aesthetic values. There is a whole subfield of political
theory called political aesthetics, but its not necessary to go into the weeds of that discipline at least
to consider its biggest takeaway: authority contains both rational and irrational factors, and these are
messily intertwined.
Of course, Max Weber said much the same thing nearly a century ago when he divided legitimate
authority into rational, traditional, and charismatic forms. Importantly, he viewed most societies as
embodying all three to various extents. History is also full of charismatic leaders who have founded
lasting states. An honest look at U.S. history, as well, shows that Lincoln and F.D.R. were not just
especially competent public servantsthey radically reformed their political systems in part by means
of personal, charismatic authority. Mao and (at least within the Party) Deng both asserted legitimacy in
this fashion, and Xi seems set to do the same. Only the Chinese people can say whether or not his
vision will be equally successful. Ultimately, it may well be a question of his own work stylewill
most people really end up finding him as devoted and sincere as he portrays himself? The only
relevant claim Id like to advance is that Western academics are ill-placed to definitively answer that
question. Keai is in the eye of the beholder. Ryan Mitchell
Chen Weihua
To their disappointment, China has not disintegrated into six or seven republics.
Instead it has become the world's second-largest economy and it is well on its
way to being No 1.
Yet the rise of China has not discouraged some in the United States from continuing to fantasize about
the breakup of China.
In his Wall Street Journal article "The Coming Chinese Crackup," on March 7, David Shambaugh, a
China scholar at George Washington University, pronounced that the "endgame of Communist rule" in
China has begun. But his article is based on some random and superficial facts, and his arguments can
best be summarized as yipian gaiquan (hasty generalization), or with the English idiom, "One swallow
does not make a summer."
Shambaugh is right that no campaign can eliminate the problem of corruption. But no one should be so
naive as to believe that corruption can be completely uprooted, either in China or in the U.S., where
President Barack Obama has repeatedly complained about money in politics.
Shambaugh's deep flaw is that he looked at China with a bias, completely ignoring the positive aspects.
For example, the anti-corruption campaign launched by President Xi Jinping has raised hope for many
Chinese that the thorny issue is being tackled. The campaign has been popular both at home and
abroad, including winning support from senior Obama administration officials and many China scholars
in Washington. In the past days, U.S. scholars, both on the right and left, have questioned Shambaugh's
logic.
I believe Xi and many Chinese know that fighting the war on corruption is really hard. Yet Shambaugh
seems to suggest that doing nothing is probably a better way forward. Chen Weihua
[Note: Reprinted with permission from China Daily.]
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Embracing China's
"New Normal"
Why the Economy Is Still
on Track
Hu Angang
t is clear by now that China's economy is set to slow in the years to
come, although economists disagree
about how much and for how long. Last
year, the country's GDP growth rate fell to
7.4 percent, the lowest in almost a quarter
century, and many expect that figure to
drop further in 2015. Plenty of countries
struggle to grow at even this pace, but
most don't have to create hundreds of
millions of jobs over the next decade,
as China will. So understandably, some
experts are skeptical about the country's
prospects. They argue that its productionfueled growth model is no longer tenable
and warn, as the economist Paul Krugman
did in 2013, that the country is "about to
hit its Great Wall." According to this
view, the question is not whether the
Chinese economy will crash but when.
Such thinking is misguided. China
is not nearing the edge of a cliff; it is
entering a new stage of development.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has called
this next phase of growth the "new
normal," a term that Mohamed El-Erian,
the former CEO of the global investment
firm PIMCO, famously used to describe
the West's painful economic recovery
HU ANGANG is a Professor at Tsinghua
University's School of Public Policy and
Management.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Hu Angang
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
ization, which involves easing restrictions on money flows across the country's borders, and the creation of a
so-called negative list, a single document
that indicates which sectors of the economy are not open to foreign investment,
signaling that all the others are.
China is poised to make greater
contributions in the realm of ideas as
well. The country is now among the
world's largest generators of intellectual
property; from 2000 to 2012, inventors
in China were responsible for nearly
62 percent of the growth in the world's
patent applications (inventors in the
United States contributed to around
25 percent). And as part of its new commitment to innovation, Beijing will
likely adopt stricter intellectual property
protections and encourage Chinese
companies to apply for international
patents and disseminate new technologies,
especially to developing countries.
May/June 2015
11
Hu Angang
Volting Ambition
Net Electricity Generation in the United States and China, All Sectors, 1980-2012
6,000
5,000
China
United
SStates
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1980
.I
1985
1990
. I
1995
2000
2005
I .
2010
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
7/29/2015
EverythingXiwants|TheEconomist
Nationalsecurity
EverythingXiwants
AnewnationalsecuritylawhintsattheCommunistPartysfears
Jul4th2015|BEIJING| Fromtheprintedition
SINCEtakingoverasChinasleaderin2012,
PresidentXiJinpinghasshownanunusual
preoccupationwithchallengestothecountrys
security.Ayearlater,tohandlethese,hesetupa
newnationalsecuritycommissionandmade
himselfchiefofit.OnJuly1stthecountrys
parliamenthelpedhimfurtherbyadoptinganew
lawonnationalsecurity.Itconveysthe
remarkablerangeofMrXisworries,withpotentialthreatsseentobeemanatingfromsources
asdiverseastheinternet,culture,educationandouterspace.Foritsinsightintotheoften
opaquepsychologyofChinaselite,thebillwillbewelcomednotso,however,byanyonewith
grievancesagainsttheCommunistParty.
Thelawisadense6,900charactersofpartyspeak,withlittleinthewayofdetail(notevenany
specificpunishments),butplentyofobligationssuchastodefendthefundamentalinterestsof
thepeopleandtakeallmeasuresnecessarytoprotectthecountry.Manycountries,including
AmericaandIndia,havelawsonnationalsecurity.Butthevarietyofconcernscoveredin
Chinasisstriking,asisthevaguenessofitslanguage(anexceptionisthatApril15thwill
henceforthbeobservedasNationalSecurityEducationDay).Itmaybefollowedbydetailed
regulationslater.Butitisunlikelythatitskeytermswilleverbedefinedmoreprecisely.ToMr
Xi,vaguenessisausefulweapon.
Thelawsfirstarticlesetsoutthedocumentsintention:toprotectthepoliticalpowerofthe
peoplesdemocraticdictatorshipandthesystemofsocialismwithChinesecharacteristics.As
always,thepartysgriponpowerandstatesecurityaretreatedassynonymous.MrXisroleas
nationalsecuritychiefisprimarilyconcernedwithdomesticthreats.Theseincludeones
commonlyregardedasnationalsecurityproblems,suchasterrorism.Buttheyalsoincludethe
challengesposedbyfreespeechandliberalideology.
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EverythingXiwants|TheEconomist
MrXihasmovedmoredecisivelythanhispredecessor,HuJintao,toheadofftheseperceived
dangers,byroundingupnumerousdissidentsandtighteningcontrolsontheinternet,aswellas
launchingapeopleswaronterroramongMuslimUighursinthewesternregionofXinjiang.
Animportantdifferencebetweenanearlierdraftofthelaw,releasedinApril,andthefinal
documentisthegreaterprominenceandspacegiventoclausesrelatedtothepartysmonopoly
onpower.Thebill(whichreplacesonepassedin1993)isoneoffivenewlawscurrentlyindraft
formorrecentlypassedthatmayhelpMrXistrengthenthemuscleofthesecurityapparatus.
Theothersareanantiespionagelaw,passedlastyear,andlawscurrentlyindraftformon
counterterrorism,cybersecurityandforeignNGOs.
ThelawmakesanodtooneofMrXispetcauses,strengtheningruleoflaw.Article15
requiresthestatetostrengthenthemechanismforconductingchecksonandoversightover
theexerciseofpower.Thatisnotasitsounds.AtanannualpartymeetinglastOctober,MrXi
setoutavisionoftheruleoflawthatclearlysuggesteditwastobeusedtokeepthepartyin
control,nottohamstringitspower.OnJuly1stthelegislaturealsodeclaredthatfromnextyear,
officialswillhavetoswearloyaltytotheconstitutionwhentakingoffice.Thatdocument
supposedlyprotectsfreedomofspeech,ofthepress,ofassemblyandofassociation.Yetitsfirst
articlealsospecifiesthatChinaisapeoplesdemocraticdictatorship.MrXineverseemsto
mentionthenicersoundingparts.
Adutytosnitch
Hisanxietieshavesomejustification.Thepartyhaslongsincelostitsideologicallegitimacy:the
madnessoftheMaoisterafromthe1950stothe1970sputpaidtothat.Itseconomiclegitimacy
mayalsobewaning:aslowingeconomy,risingpricesandrisingtaxesmakeithardertobuy
peopleoff.Ordinarycitizensareincreasinglywillingtoexpresstheirgrievancesprotests
involvingthousandsofpeoplebrokeoutinasuburbofShanghaionJune22ndoverrumoursof
aplantobuildachemicalfactoryinthearea,forexample.Theunrestlastedforseveraldays
untilpolicebeganarrestingdozensofparticipants.Therapidexpulsionofairinrecentdays
fromthecolossalbubblethatisChinasstockmarketisalsocausingjittersinBeijing:millionsof
investorsarepeoplewhohaveborrowedheavilytopourmoneyintododgyshares.
Underthenewlaw,thedutyofindividualcitizenstoprotectnationalsecurity(forwhichread,
notstiruptrouble)isemphasised.Thisaspectisclearerthanitwasintheinitialdraft.
Equivalentlawsinmostcountriestellcitizenswhattheymustnotdo,suchasleakstatesecrets.
Chinaslawtellsthemwhattheyarerequiredtodo,includingreportinganythingthatmaypose
athreat.Thatislikelytoaddtoanxietyamongmembersofthecountrysbeleaguered
communityofpoliticalactivists,whoarealreadyvictimsofvaguelegislationthathaslongbeen
inforce.InthesoutherncityofGuangzhou,prosecutorsarereportedlypreparingacaseagainst
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EverythingXiwants|TheEconomist
ablogger,LiangQinhui,forincitementtosubvertstatepower.Hisallegedcrimewasposting
sensitivetweets.(OnesupposedlysaidhewouldratherbeanAmericandogthanaChinese
pig.)
Thosealarmedbythenewbillincludeforeignbusinesses.Somehadalreadyexpressedconcerns
abouttheothersecurityrelatedlawspackagedwithit,suchasthedraftcounterterrorismlaw,
releasedinMarch,whichdemandsthatcompaniesreleaseencrypteddataonrequest.Thenew
lawassertsChinasrighttoensurethatcriticalinfrastructureandinformationsystemsare
secureandcontrollable.GivenChinascurrentanxietiesabouttheuseofforeigntechnologyin
computersystemsitdeemsimportant,foreignfirmsworrythatsuchinnocentsounding
languagecouldeventuallyresultinstrictercurbsontheuseoftheirproducts.Thedraftlawon
foreignNGOshassimilarlysownanxiety.Itwillrequiresuchorganisationstoregisterwiththe
police.
TheremaybealittlereliefinHongKong.Thedocumentmentionstheformercolonysobligation
toupholdnationalsecurity.Butofficialswerequicktopointoutthatthebillwouldnotbe
appliedintheterritory,whichhasitsownBritishinspiredlegalsystem.Itsexemptionmaynot
lastforever.ChineseofficialswouldlikeHongKongtopassitsownlawonnationalsecurityit
saystheterritoryisobligedtodosobyitspostcolonialconstitution.ButwhenHongKongs
governmenttriedtopasssuchalawin2003,massivedemonstrationseruptedthateventually
causedthethenchiefexecutive,TungCheehwa,tostepdown.Officialsintheterritoryare
unlikelytobeinahurrytotryagain(notwithstandinganunusuallylowturnoutonJuly1stfor
anannualparadeinHongKongbysupportersofgreaterdemocracyamovementthatappears
tohaveloststeaminthefaceofChinasintransigence).
ElsewhereinChina,thechillbeingspreadbyMrXisnewlawsisunlikelytodissipatesoon.A
seniorlegislatortoldreportersafterthelatestonewaspassedthatChinasnationalsecuritywas
morecomplicatedthanatanyothertimeinhistory.Thestatenewsagency,Xinhua,saidallof
the155legislatorswhovotedonthelawwereinfavour,apartfromonewhoabstained.Atleast
MrXineednotworryabouttheloyaltyofhisparliament.
Fromtheprintedition:China
http://www.economist.com/node/21656689/print
3/3
Legal Reform:
Chinas Law-Stability Paradox
Benjamin L. Liebman
Abstract: In the 1980s and 1990s, China devoted extensive resources to constructing a legal system, in
part in the belief that legal institutions would enhance both stability and regime legitimacy. Why, then,
did Chinas leadership retreat from using law when faced with perceived increases in protests, citizen complaints, and social discontent in the 2000s? This law-stability paradox suggests that party-state leaders
do not trust legal institutions to play primary roles in addressing many of the most complex issues resulting
from Chinas rapid social transformation. This signies a retreat not only from legal reform, but also
from the rule-based model of authoritarian governance that has contributed much to the resilience of the
Chinese system. The law-stability paradox also highlights the difculties facing efforts by Chinas new
leadership to reinvigorate legal reform.
96
leaders appear not to trust legal institutions to play primary roles in addressing
many of the most complex issues resulting from Chinas rapid social transformation. The party-state has prioritized rapid
resolution of conflict over adherence to
legal procedures.
In China, the term social instability is often
understood to refer specically to incidents of protest or social conflict. Yet the
phrase has evolved to cover a much broader swath of activity and discourse, including online discussions of high-prole
issues and any conduct that the party-state
views as a potential threat to its authority
or legitimacy, including corruption, group
litigation, and virtually any publicly discussed controversial topic. Social instability in China thus refers narrowly to acts
of protest and broadly to conduct that
party-state ofcials view as having the
potential to create unrest or to challenge
the party-states power.
Evidence from China suggests that top
leadership has in recent years perceived
adherence to legal rules as a constraint on
efforts to maintain social stability.2 This
approach may be due to concerns that
stronger legal institutions could threaten
Communist Party control. But recent attitudes toward law also reflect party-state
efforts to maintain legitimacy by being responsive to the public, as well as uncertainty about the utility of law in managing a
period of rapid change. Law has become an
important governance tool in China, but
adherence to legal procedures is not a
source of party-state legitimacy. Recognizing Chinas law-stability paradox challenges Western arguments regarding the
role legal reforms have played in the construction of Chinas form of authoritarianism,3 suggesting a retreat not only from
legal reform but also from the rule-based
model of authoritarian governance that
has contributed much to the resilience of
the Chinese system.
143 (2) Spring 2014
concept of rule of law China and the reforms announced following the Third
Plenum in November 2013 have been widely viewed as efforts by Xi to mark a clean
break from his predecessors, especially following the fall of Bo Xilai, the former Communist Party Secretary of Chongqing
whose populist approach was seen by
many as a direct assault on rule-based governance. Xi is not the rst Chinese leader to
use the rhetoric of law to distinguish himself from his predecessors. Deng Xiaopings
embrace of legal reforms in the late 1970s
97
Chinas
LawStability
Paradox
98
turn against law, and what I have elsewhere described as Chinas return to populist legality.8
New ofcial attitudes toward law in the
HuWen era were manifest most clearly
in the emphasis on maintaining social
stability and constructing a harmonious
society. Stability has been a key concern
throughout the reform era. In the 2000s,
however, stability attracted renewed
attention as reports of protest and unrest
mounted. In the 1980s and 1990s, legal
reforms were largely thought to promote
stability: it was better to have disgruntled
citizens suing in court than protesting or
burning down government ofces. In the
2000s, in contrast, ofcial sensitivity to
unrest resulted in deemphasis on legal
procedures and the creation of incentives
for local ofcials to maintain stability,
often at the expense of following legal
norms.
In the 2000s, courts came under pressure
to mediate the majority of civil cases.
Courts received explicit targets for mediating percentages of cases; mediation rates
in some jurisdictions exceeded 80 percent.9 This trend marked a shift from the
1990s, when adjudicated outcomes had
become the norm in most cases decided
by Chinas courts. Ofcial encouragement
of mediation reflected the belief that
mediated cases are less likely than adjudicated cases to result in escalation and
unrest. Mediation also t well into ofcial
policy of re-embracing revolutionary-era
concepts of justice for the people and
the Ma Xiwu adjudication method,
which emphasized resolving disputes
immediately, on the spot, and in line with
popular views.10
High mediation rates lead to concerns
that litigants are being coerced into agreeing to mediated outcomes and denied the
opportunity to resolve cases in accordance with the law. In many contentious
disputes, mediation is handled through
143 (2) Spring 2014
Chinas
LawStability
Paradox
100
plaints are also a sign of disconnect between popular use of law and the capacity
of the legal system to respond. One common source of complaints, for example, is
unenforced decisions. In some cases,
however, lack of enforcement results from
the inability of a defendant to pay, not
from inaction by the courts. Likewise, in
contentious cases, most notably land disputes, petitions and protests often result
from the fact that courts lack sufcient
authority to act.
Courts take extreme steps to eliminate
complaints. One response has been greater
use of mediation, reflecting the view that
mediated cases are less likely to result in
protest. But courts also maintain dedicated
funds that they use to persuade petitioners
to stop petitioning, agree to reopen and
rehear previously decided cases in response to complaints, and deploy staff to
Beijing to intercept and forcibly return
home those who seek to le complaints
to authorities in the capital. Compensation
and mediation agreements frequently
include promises by litigants not to petition. Adherence to legal rules is of secondary importance to eliminating the
potential for unrest, with courts adjusting
outcomes or pressuring defendants to pay
additional sums to plaintiffs in already
decided cases.16 Although ofcial statistics
reported a dramatic drop in the volume
of litigation-related petitions led in the
latter half of the 2000s, judges report that
the pressure they face from petitioners
has not declined.
Protest likewise influences cases that
never make it to court. Concern about
unrest is a key factor influencing settlement decisions in areas such as medical
malpractice litigation and labor disputes,
where defendants often agree to pay signicantly more than legally required in
order to head off possible protest and violence.17 The threat of violence is real: reports of aggrieved patients or their fami-
lies attacking doctors have become common, as has the practice of family members leaving the body of the deceased at
the hospital (sometimes in the lobby) in
protest while negotiations over compensation proceed. Specialized intermediaries now exist in many locations to assist
people seeking compensation outside the
formal legal system, with professional
protestors congregating outside hospitals
and specialized debt collectors working
in many areas.18 Ofcials have acted
quickly to ensure that some of the most
sensitive disputes, such as those arising out
of the Wenchuan earthquake, the Wenzhou high-speed rail accident, and the
melamine-contaminated milk scandal,
never make it to court. In all three cases,
potential plaintiffs were encouraged or
compelled to agree to quick settlements.
Courts have also refused to accept cases
on a wide range of issues linked to social
unrest, such as land disputes. Courts lack
authority to accept many sensitive cases
and refuse to accept such cases even
when they do have the authority.
Scholarship on protest in China, as
Ching Kwan Lee notes in her essay in this
issue, has identied threats of escalation
and group action as key determinants of a
protests success. However, evidence from
the legal system shows that courts are at
times responsive to individuals who pose
little threat of collective action.19 The
incentives for local ofcials to stop even
individual petitioners suggest that existence of such grievances is perceived as a
threat to the party-states legitimacy.
State concerns about stability and legitimacy are also manifest in ofcial
embrace of populism in the legal system
and in calls for greater party supervision,
in part the result of the perception that
courts are an important source of public
discontent. The term populism in the Chinese legal system includes a broad range
of external factors that affect legal insti143 (2) Spring 2014
Chinas
LawStability
Paradox
102
What are the sources of Chinas lawstability paradox? Four primary factors
have had particular influence. First, the
color revolutions in Eastern Europe and
Central Asia in the early 2000s and the
Chinas
LawStability
Paradox
104
hinas law-stability paradox also highlights the challenges facing any renewed
efforts at legal reform. The challenge for
any serious efforts to strengthen the role of
law in addressing social conflict is not only
to realign incentives so that local ofcials
follow legal rules; it is also to convince
those most likely to engage in acts of unrest or resistance that the legal system can
protect their interests. A growing body of
literature provides empirical support for
the popular perception that the legal system increasingly serves the interests of the
elite.34 Greater emphasis on populism
alone is unlikely to change this perception.
Tensions also remain between new legal rules and popular conceptions of justice. Efforts to adjust law to align with
popular views risk creating new inequali143 (2) Spring 2014
Chinas
LawStability
Paradox
106
or post-Communist countries. Chinese legal academics and legal professionals assess Chinas legal development not with
reference to that of post-Communist
Russia or even Singapore, but to the legal
systems of the United States or Western
Europealbeit often an over-idealized
form of Western legality. In some respects,
Chinas legal reforms appear to have been
relatively successful when compared to
other middle-income countries or to postCommunist countries not tethered to the
European Union. China has hundreds of
thousands of legal professionals and a
system that was almost unimaginable at
the beginning of the reform era in 1978.
Yet metrics for evaluating legal development are often elusive and misleading.37
The number of laws, legal personnel, or
cases tells very little about the overall
fairness or effectiveness of the Chinese
legal system. Assessing Chinas legal system is also difcult because such evaluations vary depending on whose interests
are prioritized: those of the state or those
of ordinary people. Different legal systems
serve different functions, and such functions may change over time within the
same country. Placing Chinas legal development in comparative context highlights the fact that there is no single form
of or path to legal development and that
nonconvergence with Western models of
legality may be as likely as convergence.
Chinas recent experiences also highlight
difculties inherent in using law both to
legitimize the state and to constrain state
action in an authoritarian state undergoing rapid social transformation.
Chinas law-stability paradox reflects
uncertainty about how best to respond to
instability and the difculty of adapting
legal rules to a rapidly changing society.
The paradox also reflects the challenge of
creating new legal rules and institutions
in a political system where legitimacy
continues to be based on populist respon-
endnotes
Authors Note: I explore many of the issues discussed in this essay in more detail in Benjamin
L. Liebman, Chinas Law and Stability Paradox, in Chinas Challenges: The Road Ahead, ed.
Jacques deLisle and Avery Goldstein (forthcoming 2014).
1 Carl Minzner, Chinas Turn Against Law, American Journal of Comparative Law 59 (2011):
935984; Donald Clarke, Jiang Ping: Chinas Rule of Law is in Full Retreat, China Law Prof
Blog, March 2, 2010, http://lawprofessors.typepad.com/china_law_prof_blog/2010/03/
jiang-ping-chinas-rule-of-law-is-in-full-retreat.html; and Benjamin L. Liebman, A Return
to Populist Legality? Historical Legacies and Legal Reform, in Maos Invisible Hand, ed.
Sebastian Heilmann and Elizabeth J. Perry (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press,
2011), 269313.
2 Whether China has actually become less stable is contested. It is clear, however, that Chinas
leadership during the 2000s became increasingly concerned with a perceived rise in instability.
3 Andrew J. Nathan, Authoritarian Resilience, Journal of Democracy 14 (2003): 617.
4 See my overview of this era in Liebman, A Return to Populist Legality?
5 For additional discussion, see Benjamin L. Liebman, Chinas Courts: Restricted Reforms,
The China Quarterly 191 (September 2007): 620638.
6 Chen Xi, China at the Tipping Point? The Rising Cost of Stability, Journal of Democracy 24
(2013): 5764.
7 Keith Hand, Resolving Constitutional Disputes in Contemporary China, University of Pennsylvania East Asian Law Review 7 (2011): 50159.
8 Minzner, Chinas Turn Against Law; and Liebman, A Return to Populist Legality?
9 Ibid.
10 Liebman, A Return to Populist Legality?
11 Mary Gallagher, Changes in the Worlds Workshop: The Demographic, Social, and Political
Factors Behind Chinas Labor Movement, in Dragon vs. Eagle: The Chinese Economy and U.S.China Relations, ed. Wei-Chiao Chung and Huizhong Zhou (Kalamazoo, Mich.: W.E. Upjohn
Institute for Employment Research, 2012), 99112.
12 Benjamin L. Liebman, Leniency in Chinese Criminal Law? Everyday Justice in Henan,
Berkeley Journal of International Law (forthcoming 2014).
13 Susan Trevaskes, The Shifting Sands of Punishment in China in the Era of Harmonious Society, Law & Policy 32 (3) (2010): 332361.
14 For more on compensation in labor disputes, see Yang Su and He Xin, Street as Courtroom:
State Accommodation of Labor Protests in South China, Law & Society Review 44 (1) (2010):
157184.
15 Wang Ying, Zhuanxingqi de zhongguo fayuan yu xinfang: shesu xinfang wenti shizheng
yanjiu [Chinese Courts and Petitioning in a Time of Transition: Empirical Research into
the Question of Litigation-related Petitioning], Ph.D. dissertation, Qinghua University
143 (2) Spring 2014
107
Chinas
LawStability
Paradox
(2010); and Benjamin L. Liebman, A Populist Threat to Chinas Courts? in Chinese Justice:
Civil Dispute Resolution in Contemporary China, ed. Margaret Y. K. Woo and Mary E. Gallagher
(Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2011), 269313.
16 Liebman, A Populist Threat to Chinas Courts?; and Benjamin L. Liebman, Malpractice
Mobs: Medical Dispute Resolution in China, Columbia Law Review 113 (2013): 181264.
17 Liebman, Malpractice Mobs.
18 Ibid.; and Xu Xin, Fal shifou zhongyaoLaizi Huanan de yige minjian shouzhai anli [Is
Law ImportantA Case Study on Informal Debt Collection in Southern China], Sociological
Studies 1 (2004): 5363.
19 One detailed study found that nearly half of all those who went to Beijing to complain about
the courts in one northeast municipality received direct benets from doing so, generally
cash or in-kind payments from the local court. See Wang, Zhuanxingqi de zhongguo fayuan
yu xinfang.
20 Xu Kai and Li Weiao, The Machinery of Stability Preservation, Caixin, June 6, 2011, translated to English in Duihua, June 8, 2011, http://www.duihuahrjournal.org/2011/06/translation
-machinery-of-stability.html; see also Benjamin L. Liebman, Chinas Law and Stability Paradox, in Chinas Challenges: The Road Ahead, ed. Jacques deLisle and Avery Goldstein (forthcoming 2014).
21 Carl Minzner, The Rise and Fall of Chinese Legal Education, Fordham International Law
Journal 36 (2) (2012): 335396.
22 For more detail on such organizations, see Liebman, Chinas Law and Stability Paradox.
23 Ibid.; and Xu and Li, The Machinery of Stability Preservation.
24 China Law Society, Law Yearbook of China (Beijing: China Law Yearbook Press, 20042012).
25 Black Jail Industries, Global Times, March 3, 2013, http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/
765426.shtml.
26 Tamir Moustafa and Tom Ginsburg, Introduction to Rule by Law: The Politics of Courts in Authoritarian Regimes (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008), 12.
27 Heilmann and Perry, eds., Maos Invisible Hand.
28 Liebman, A Return to Populist Legality.
29 Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America, vol. 1, ed. Phillips Bradley, trans. Henry Reeve
(New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1946), 280.
30 Katharina Pistor, Towards a Legal Theory of Finance, manuscript draft, 2012.
31 Court adjudication committees generally consist of senior judges and decide sensitive or
difcult cases. The practice has been criticized due to the fact that it results in cases being
decided by judges who did not participate in the trial.
32 Nor are reforms designed to reduce the role of populism in the legal system: the decision
also calls for broadening channels for the masses to participate in the judiciary, although
it does also say that such participation shall be in an orderly manner, suggesting perhaps
that specic procedures should be created for such popular participation.
33 Raymond Li, Seven Subjects Off Limits for Teaching, Chinese Universities Told, South China
Morning Post, May 11, 2013, http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1234453/dont-teach
-freedom-press-or-communist-party-mistakes-chinese-academics; and Li Qi and William
Wan, Chinas Constitution Debate Hits a Sensitive Nerve, The Washington Post, June 3, 2013,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/06/03/chinas-constitution
-debate-hits-a-sensitive-nerve/.
34 Mary E. Gallagher, Mobilizing the Law in China: Informed Disenchantment and the Development of Legal Consciousness, Law & Society Review 40 (4) (2006): 783816; He Xin and
108
Yang Su, Do the Haves Come Out Ahead in Shanghai Courts? Journal of Empirical Legal Benjamin L.
Studies 10 (1) (2013): 120145; and Yuen Yuen Ang and Nan Jia, Perverse Complementarity: Liebman
Political Connections & Use of Courts among Private Firms in China, The Journal of Politics
(posted online May 2013), http://ssrn.com/abstract=2033230.
35 Li Tao, Xin xingsufa shishi: lshi huijian zeng 35% [Lawyer Visits Increased 35% after
Implementation of the New Criminal Procedure Law], Beijing Youth Net, March 18, 2013,
http://bjyouth.ynet.com/3.1/1303/18/7892125.html; and Liang Shuang, Xin xingsufa songbang lshi huijian dangshiren mengzeng siwu bei [Lawyers See Visits Soar by Quadruple or
Quintuple with New Relaxed Criminal Procedure Law], Wuhan Evening, March 13, 2013,
http://www.hb.xinhuanet.com/2013-03/13/c_115004008.htm.
36 Xin xingsufa shishi liangge yue: xin tiaozhan xin bianhua [Two Months After Implementation of New Criminal Procedure Law: New Challenges, New Changes], Renmin
Gongan bao, March 11, 2013, http://shzfzz.eastday.com/node2/zzb/shzfzz/jrgz/node1745/
u1ai284475.html; and Wang Jianjiao, Tonghai fayuan fanying xin xingsufa shishizhong zai
zhengren chuting zuozheng fangmian bubian caozuo [Inconveniences in the Implementation of the New Criminal Procedure Law Reflected in the Experiences of Witnesses Testifying in Tonghai Courts], March 25, 2013, http://www.thfy.gov.cn/show.asp?id=1166.
37 Kevin E. Davis, What Can the Rule of Law Variable Tell Us about Rule of Law Reforms?
Michigan Journal of International Law 26 (2004): 142161.
109