Introduction

Introduction
1.1 Outlook
1.2 World
1.3 Technology
1.4 Enterprise
r1
Outlook
Think about all the change that has occurred in the past 10 yearsfrom the
societal to the individual, from the economic to the technological. These
changes have not just affected the enterprise, theyve redefined it. And of
course, the rate of change is only accelerating.
So, what will a successful enterprise look like in

15 years? Or 10? Or even 5?
How will it interact with customers, engage partners and
empower employees? How might its business models,
operating principles and organizational structures differ
from todays enterprise?
To imagine the future of the enterprise, we must

understand the forces that are transforming our world
and the technological innovations that are shaping
the future. How will our professional and
personal lives be different? And in what
new and unexpected ways will technology
work for us?
Individually, we are at best nearsighted to
changes that will affect the enterprise
in 2020 and beyond.
But if we gather thousands of thinkers from the enterprise

community, provoke one another to discuss the global,
social, business and technological trends that are beginning
to emergeand help each other arrive at some consensus
then each of us will be better prepared not only to bring
the challenges of the future into focus, but also to help our
organizations do the same.
Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort to imagine,

discuss and debate the future of the enterprise.
This six-month experimentpresented by HP and
driven by the enterprise visionaries, industry leaders
and technology experts who make up our community
of customerswill result in a full-length, cloud-enabled
book about what it will take for enterprises to succeed
in 2020 and beyond.
Together, we will examine trends, challenge assumptions

and ultimately drill down to the very issues that matter most
to the boardroom, the applications team, the marketing
department, the IT operations center and the CIOs office.
I.1 Community Discussion Highlights
Changes ahead
Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort with our community
members, and their comments help shape each chapter well after
its published. On the following pages we take the pulse of the
community and highlight some thoughts from the Discussion Hub.
What will the enterprise of 2020 look like? This questionand the
questions that spawn from the myriad answersis what this
community-sourced project endeavors to answer. Obviously, no
one answer is correct; no one can see the future. But the ideas
generated from the Enterprise 20/20 community can help lead us
down the path.
I think that the "apps of the future" will be multi-client. They will
support One premisethat TVs, smartphones and other devices
as we know them will disappear, and the smartphone of the
future will be in your braingenerated much conversation among
community members, who for the most part believe we always will
need some form of physical device in our daily lives.
I think that the "apps of the future" will be multi-client. They will
support smartphones, tablets, laptops and where appropriate and
increasingly, the TV, notes Mike Shaw. The client would behave
differently depending on the device. And, context would travel

between devices.
Luigi Tiano sees the tablet becoming the de facto device for most
computing: In my opinion, the tablet will become a commodity (it's on its
way) and it will become the standard tool for most individuals, he writes.
Smart phones are great for a quick fix, but Im not sure they give us that
ability to perform heavy work.
A cloudy future
For all the conversation around devices, the ability to have access
anytime, anywhere is still of utmost importance. Indeed, it is driving a
number of conversations around cloud computing, including whether it is
the technology of the future.
Community member beemaraj believes the clouds usefulness in about
15 years: Cloud will remain for another decade and its successor can be
expected around 2025. Luigi Tiano agrees, although doesnt believe the
cloud will go away: I am a strong believer that the cloud will continue to
grow until it becomes the standard for both organizations and
individuals, he notes. The name may change to something less
ambiguous, but the concept will remain the same.
Much of it depends on your definition of cloud, says Charles Bess. If it
means increased flexibility in the consumption of abundant resources,
then it will be with us for a long time and part of whatever is to come. If
you view it as a more limited IaaS capability, than there is the whole
flexible value stream of IaaS->PaaS->SaaS->BPO->Consulting that
provide more capability and additional flexibility where it can
be adopted.
I am a strong believer that the cloud

will continue to grow until it becomes
the standard for both organizations
and individuals. Luigi Tiano
Other technologies may come and go by 2020, but most community
members agree cloud computing is a technology whose time has
comeand will be around for the long haul.
Go to the next Community Discussion page
10
World
When you think of 2020 what comes to mind? For
some, 20/20 means perfect vision. For others,
2020 is a not-too-distant point in the future, just far
enough to be somewhat fuzzyor, depending on
your point of view, completely obscure.
11
I.2 World
Imagining the world of tomorrow means looking

at the world of today, learning from the lessons
of others, and being open to challenging
new ideas. Here are six trends we think will
shape our world by 2020
12
I.2 World
Young and old, more people will

live on and shape our planet.
Between now and 2020, nearly 1 billion youth will reach adulthooda.
This next generation of parents, leaders, workers and educators will
find themselves surrounded by more people. Older people, younger
people, richer and poorer people.
Enterprise implications
The digital youth entering the workforce will expect what todays digital
natives expect: intuitive, 24x7 mobile access to information and the
use of social tools to improve their effectiveness.
Many of these people will come of age in developing nations. But what
will be different is that they will have grown up more aware of their
world, connected through media and mobility to a global grid and a
context to match.
Active seniors will bring valuable experience to the workforce, provided

we design flexible environments (virtual or mobile offices) and apply
our ingenuity to delivering effective and efficient health care.
And with the exposure will come the desire for change for access to
more and better goods and services, education, opportunities and
healthier, richer lives.
To address the consumer preferences of the social media-savvy

generation, enterprises will need to extract meaning from the massive
amounts of text, video and audio content that exists. And targeting
consumers, while negotiating their strong desire for privacy, will require
smarter analytics and more computing power than ever before.
Simultaneously, well see the graying of the population in so-called

developed countries. In total well have nearly 7.6 billion people,
including 23% more people over 75 years old, 30% more people over
80 years old and 58% more over 90 years oldb. These seniors will be
more active and will work longer whether because of better health,
financial need or personal passion.
13
I.2 World
Rise of the Mega Cities
Los Angeles
13,250,000
Moscow
11,730,000
New York City
20,430,000
Osaka
11,530,000
16 of the largest 20 cities

of 2020 are in todays
developing nations
Developing
Highly Developed
Cairo
14,020,000
Mexico City
21,810,000
Istanbul
12,760,000
Projected total of growth %, 2006 TO 2020

Tokyo
Mumbai
Delhi
Dhaka
Mexico City
SoPaulo
Lagos
Jakarta
NewYork
Karachi
Calcutta
Buenos Aires
Cairo
Metro Manila
Los Angeles
Rio de Janeiro
Istanbul
Shanghai
Moscow
Osaka
4.9%
37.9%
61.4%
68.3%
13.4%
15.9%
83.7%
51.9%
9.6%
55.2%
27.3%
14.5%
24.2%
24.0%
8.4%
13.8%
27.5%
0.0%
8.4%
1.8%
So Paulo
21,570,000
Rio de Janeiro
13,230,000
Tokyo
37,280,000
Shanghai
12,630,000
Karachi
18,940,000
Delhi
25,830,000
Lagos
21,510,000
Mumbai
25,970,000
Metro Manila
Dhaka
13,400,000
22,040,000
Buenos Aires
15,480,000
Calcutta
18,540,000
Jakarta
20,770,000
14
I.2 World
The middle class in developing

countries will redefine markets.
In parallel to population growth, well see a marked shift in the balance

of economic power. Western tastes and influences will no longer
dominate the world consumer goods market, as the buying power
of middle classes in China, India, Brazil, and Russia booms.
The shifting middle classes2

Global top 10 consuming middle classes (Global share of purchasing power parity)
2009
United States 21%
2020
China 13%
2030
India 23%
United States 12%
Japan 8%
India 11%
China 18%
Germany 6%
France 4%
Japan 6%
United Kingdom 4%
Russia 4%
China 4%
Italy 3%
Mexico 3%
Brazil 3%
Germany 4%
Russia 3%
France 3%
Indonesia 3%
Mexico 3%
United States 7%
Indonesia 4%
Japan 4%
Russia 3%
Germany 2%
Mexico 2%
Brazil 2%
France 2%
15
I.2 World
We should expect to see global tastes in fashion and entertainment

more influenced by these newly dominant economies. The increasing
connectedness of our 20/20 world will have a major impact on the rate
at which attitudes and tastes from one culture assimilate globally.
Likes will promote Chinese pop artists, Indian fashion labels, and
Russian consumer goods at a rate unimagined to advertising
executives from the previous century, buoyed by pride in local heroes,
styles and products, and social networks combined with digital reach
connecting millions.
As more countries challenge the Wests economic power, enterprises
everywhere must rapidly react, plug into and reach the newly dominant
cultures in the world of 2020.
Success will require a blend of hiring people who grew up in these
growth economies as well as flexible and adaptable business
processes that develop products, services and messages to meet local
preferences, tastes and needs.
Enterprises will require advanced analytics and flexible business
processes (most likely comprised of cloud-based services) to adapt to
rapidly emerging and varying market opportunities.
16
I.2 World
Resource scarcity will make us

more resourceful.
Necessity breeds invention. Scarcity of natural resources, from energy

and water to precious metals to arable land, will be starting points for
innovation. Population growth and the rise of the middle class is driving
consumption around the globe.
As our existing resources become scarcer and more expensive, we will
find new ways to improve our lives and the health of our world,
knowing that failure will lead to austerity, or worse.
We foresee our society innovating new means of energy production,
creating more comfortable and energy-efficient housing options to
support our ongoing migration to cities, and eliminating shortages of
educated workers by using the Internet to boost literacy rates and
marketable skills.
Population growth and the rise

of the middle class is driving
consumption around the globe.
Enterprises will capitalize on new product and services opportunities in
existing markets that are challenged by resource scarcity. Already,
venture capitalists are betting billions of dollars on new energy
concepts, and enterprises will apply new techniques to improve yields
on everything from agricultural production to resource extraction.
For internal improvement, enterprises will employ energy- and waterefficient strategies even as they grow compute, storage and network
capacity to meet the growing demands of an increasingly digital
populace and business environment. Increased use of cloud computing
will provide flexibility to tap spare capacity with limited waste.
17
I.2 World
Most of us
will live in cities.
Urban areas will be home to more than 60% of the worlds population
by 2020c, up from about 50% in 2007d. This includes more than 70
cities with more than 5 million residents and more than 25 megacities
with 10 million-plus residentse.
Cities have their problems, including the potential for inadequate
housing, congestion and pollution. But well-run cities have attributes
that will improve living conditions and our planet over time.
In particular, they hold the promise of lower carbon footprints per

dweller and convenient physical access to services including
education, health care and transportation. Also, the population density
of cities makes access to high-bandwidth Internet more affordable to
provide and consume, which in turn provides convenient digital access
to goods, services and markets.
18
I.2 World
Increasingly, high-bandwidth access to over half of the worlds
population provides numerous opportunities for enterprises:
Enterprises will engage and interact with customers (and citizens) in
rich, expressive, multi-media experiences 24x7. Imagine consumers
around the globe trying your latest athletic shoe in a digital 3D
augmented-reality experience.
Enterprises will design rich virtual working environments to engage
the best and brightest employees or contractors wherever
they reside.
At the same time government agencies and businesses alike will
need to bring design and technology solutions to improve housing
and transportation systems, solve traffic gridlock, to increase energy
efficiency of buildings and find ways to use mobile and other
solutions to serve the 40% still in towns and rural areas. The use of
sensors to manage traffic flow and lighting in cities has already
started, but should be even more intelligent with the technologies
emerging by 2020.
19
I.2 World
Well lose our village connections,

but gain cyber connections.
Our connectedness and the pervasiveness of information continue to

have positive impact. Social media is increasingly informing marketing
and new product development, but it is also widely credited as a major
facilitator of the Arab Spring of 2011.
In 2020 well see it in even wider use to connect people with their
personal and professional contacts, as well as communities of interest,
businesses and governments. People will increasingly take advantage
of bandwidth enhancements to express themselves in rich multimedia
without being constrained by character counts.
Yet there will be tension as increasingly busy lives and the deluge of
information threaten to overload our brains. The digitally savvy
citizens of 2020 will appreciate the people, enterprises and
government agencies who engage selectively and intelligently helping
them balance the glut of information with their poverty of attention.
Increasingly, enterprises will amplify their intellectual property by
creating virtual value chains of specialistscontractors, small
businesses, other enterprisesthat can help them take ideas to value
rapidly. Social collaboration and the cloud will enable these virtual value
chains to rapidly assemble, collaborate and realize new market
opportunities, then dissolve and reintegrate around the next opportunity.
Sentiment analysis across social networks will help elected officials and
marketers stay in touch with the citizens and markets they serve. In
addition, use of social networks to support election candidates will be
commonplace around the globe.
Enterprises will need to make sure they engage effectivelyin a timely
and targeted fashion. The replacement of text-based social
communications (SMS, tweets) with video messages at global scale will
necessitate the use of advanced analytics that render a precise
understanding of the meaning and sentiment embedded in unstructured
information. The popularity of video as a communication medium will
also drive demand for more compute, network and storage capacity.
20
I.2 World
We will wrestle with our often

conflicting needs for security,
privacy and open access to
information.
As we share more of our personal data across social network sites,

online retail, banking, utilities and municipal services in 2020, the
threat of identity misuse and cyber crime will be ever present. Sensors
we wear to monitor our health and that line the streets to control traffic
as well as the mobile devices we carry will feed millions of updates to
systems that can be used for good or misused for ill.
Businesses and governments will try to balance the demands of
customers and citizens for constant access to information while
maintaining appropriate security and privacy controls. But hackers,
cyber criminals and cyber terrorists will continue to troll for new ways
to target organizations with denial of service attacks and data theft.
In 2020, the threat of identity misuse

and cyber crime will be ever present.
Regulators will try to protect the populace from cyber criminals, rogue
traders and nefarious corporations. Executives will be held personally
responsible for managing the tradeoffs between ensuring the welfare
of their customers, employees and personal reputations, and
leveraging the value of personal information.
21
I.2 World
Hackers, cyber criminals and cyber

terrorists will continue to troll for new
ways to target organizations.
Boards and enterprises that havent already done so will appoint C-level
executives to manage security, privacy, risk and compliance.
Commercial and government organizations will outsource sensitive
IT processes to secure cloud providers. These providers will employ
former national intelligence specialists to continuously monitor and
safeguard information at every level from infrastructure through to
software applications.
We will find new ways to help customers, employees and citizens
understand and make tradeoffs between access and security.
22
Communication
breakdown
Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort with our community members,
and their comments help shape each chapter well after its published.
On the following pages we take the pulse of the community and
highlight some thoughts from the Discussion Hub.
Members of the Enterprise 20/20 community believe many of the
trends discussed in this section will impact the advancement of
technology in 2020, but two of the most popular topics emerging
were whether information and communications technology will be
more widespread globally by 2020 and how different societies and
HHHHHHHHHHHHH
cultures impact the enterprises
of their respective countries.
HHHHHHHHHHHHH
Opinions were spirited on both
sides of the fence.
Glass is half full

When posed the question, Will ICT be available and accessible to
all anywhere in 2020? some community members see a future
where information and communications technology will be more
widespread than today, but the accessibility of technology will be
based as much on financial benefit as on population densities.
Although some countries have announced a national broadband plan,

access to ICT is still limited in many places in the world, writes Luis
Minoru Shibata. ICT access in the metropolitan or main urban areas
around the world is evolving. However, the lack of infrastructure and/or
the limited purchasing power of consumers in other areas may create a
huge gap in the society.
Other community members believe currently underdeveloped countries
will leapfrog into ubiquitous access using alternative technologies. I'm
sure we will get there by 2020. If we see the speed at which things have
moved forward over the last 5 years, I cannot imagine we have not
resolved the technical issues by then. And the emerging countries will be
first as they are not stopped by old infrastructure, notes
Christian Verstraete.
htt
An interesting question that may develop: Will the definition of ICT

change so that it is available everywhere?, asks Charles Bess. Or will it
change in the other direction, increasing in capabilities and requirements
to the point where it is available to an ever more concentrated group of
people (e.g., urbanites)?
ICT: Glass half empty

Still others took a pessimistic view of the future. There will always be
some regions with lower access [and] it could become worse in future,
but this is a natural behavior ... We should not forget that the requirement
23
in bandwidth and quality should probably be few orders of magnitude

higher to support the internet of objects, writes Patrick DeMichel.
The effects of culture on enterprises

While the future of widespread global ICT seems fuzzy, community
members were more definitive in their opinions of the Impact of
prevalent mindsets in different societies, cultures and countries
on enterprises. Indeed, they note, the global economy is forcing
many enterprises to adopt and adapt to meet the needs of all their
customers, both local and international.
Obviously all these differences [between countries] have an impact on
how to run a business in a certain country, notes Dennis Kruegel.
And especially for global companies this is obviously a big challenge
in terms of successfully accessing the various markets and engage
employees with totally different backgrounds.
James McGovern agrees: When it comes to diversity, it is somewhat
inaccurate to look at global trends while ignoring local ones. ... We live
in local societies where we tend to travel in circles of people who share
attributes similar to our own.
Paul van Ingen, meanwhile, believes the benefit of a globally
connected society will impact younger employees the most. Though
there of course are cultural differences, behaviors and preferences in
different parts of the globe, I really believe that new generations
will grow up in a more global society, he writes. New generations will be

agnostic to cultural differences.
Horia Slusanschi, meanwhile, is more circumspect: The main obstacle in
global enterprises that impedes cultural harmonization is a lack of
awareness, he writes.
When it comes to diversity, it is

somewhat inaccurate to look at global
trends while ignoring local ones.
James McGovern
Both discussions highlight the importance of communication to the

success of any enterprise. Whether its the ability to communicate via
information and communications technology or communicating with an
increasingly global marketplace, enterprises must rise to the occasion to
ensure their voice is heard.
24
Technology
How can I help you? This phrase sums up technology in 2020systems that will work
alongside us, helping us to maximize scarce resources, to process the deluge of sensorand human-generated information and to gain insights to make progress rapidly.
25
I.3 Technology
Looking at technologies that may be available by

2020, and considering how theyll help us realize our
fullest potential, is how well solve the challenges of
the next decade.
26
I.3 Technology
Cognitive systems as
human partners.
Autonomous transportation systems will manage vehicle flow through a

megacity of 20 million people. This will be made possible by combining
a vast array of traffic sensors, advanced real-time analytics and the
immense computing power required to perform cognitive decision
making on the fly and at scale.
As we increase our population densities, we must manage the systems
that support us. We must know whats happening out there in detail.
And we must optimize our systems so that we dont waste resources
while striving to improve our quality of life (one without shortages and
huge delays).
We will see these cognitive systems used to manage utilities, emergency
services and crime prevention. Well also see ultra-optimized supply
chains where we know the position of every item in the chain.
27
I.3 Technology
Computation
re-imagined.
The amount of data in the world is set to increase by 44 times from

2009 to 2020f. This is due to the growth in unstructured data and the
widespread use of sensors to tell us whats going on out there.
Gathering all this data, analyzing it and then interacting with a world
of mobile humans is not possible with todays computing and
network technology.
By 2020, new computer/storage blocks will allow us to take in and
process huge amounts of data in real time. And networks, especially
mobile networks, will be faster and able to securely handle the 33fold increase in traffic we will see from 2010 to 2020g.
The amount of data in the world

is set to increase by 44 times from
2009 to 2020.
28
I.3 Technology
Our development systems must evolve to program arrays of hundreds
of thousands of processors optimally.
Our existing IT management systems wont scale to manage such
environments. IT management in 2020 will be very good at flexing
adjusting to peak demands that could be 20, 50 or 100 times the
normal run rate.
These systems must also be self-healing. We see this technology
evolving today with run-book automation; but to handle the systems of
2020, self-adjusting and self-healing must be programmed in during
development, not bolted on after release.
IT management in 2020 will be very

good at flexing - adjusting to peak
demands that could be 20, 50 or
100 times the normal run rate.
29
I.3 Technology
Insights to
help humans.
By 2020, robotic medical assistants will make the hospital rounds,

detecting signals from sensors attached to patients. These assistants
will talk to medi-cloud systems that process the information to provide
insights and alerts to medical staff.
We will augment and enhance our existing businesses by better
understanding our customers and the changes in our markets. We will
invent entirely new businesses by exploiting information at a velocity
and on a scale that was previously unattainable. In the two decades
preceding 2020, some of the most successful Internet search, social
networking and gaming companies were built on the foundation of realtime analytics of large-scale data.
30
I.3 Technology
As data continues to expand through increased human usage, people

will increasingly value the time savings and convenience afforded by a
system that understands our current needs and then, via microsegmentation, targets content and offers based on those precise
needs. By 2020, our scarcest resource will be our own attention spans.
These systems will focus us on the things that are important.
By 2020, our scarcest resource will

be our own attention spans.
Product and service designers will need to design systems that:
Determine the human users current situation
Understand precisely what the person wants; and
Use powerful analytical ability to make highly focused and
insightful suggestions.
31
I.3 Technology
32
I.3 Technology
Personalizing the power

of the cloud.
By 2020, most of us will have mobile devices. These devices will be

able to see what we are looking at, understand our gestures and
reliably know what we are asking. Yet they will lack the elastic,
scalable computing power and linkages to huge stores of
unstructured and sensor data that the back-end cloud will have.
Mobile traffic multiplies6

Mobile traffic forecast in EB (exabytes)
(1 EB = 1,000,000 terabytes)
2020
127 exabytes
2010
3.8 exabytes
33X INCREASE
33
I.3 Technology
This combination of advanced mobile front-ends and analysis-capable

back-end cloud capability, however, will mean that applications will
know our wants and needs in some cases, even before we do.
Today, our mobile devices present information and conclusions to us in
a way that is flat literally. Humans can reason in 3D much more
readily, because thats how we interact with the physical world. By
2020, our mobile devices will be able to display 3D for
ush.
For example, an architect works with an architectural cloud service via

her mobile device. The resulting design is projected in 3D by the
mobile device. Such technology is already in use for cancer drug
design but its very expensive and most certainly not mobile.
By 2020, our mobile devices will

be able to display 3D for us.
Applications will be based on a client/cloud model. These applications
will support a range of clients mobile, smart TV, gaming device or
laptop. The applications will connect to domain-specific back ends like
the aforementioned architecture cloud. We will be able to move from
mobile to smart TV to laptop seamlessly the cloud service will
remember our state as we client hop, and the application will scale
our capabilities to match our current client.
34
I.3 Technology
Dynamic
services.
By 2020, many more business opportunities will be served by clusters

of affiliated specialists individual consultants or small businesses
that join together to bring a product or service to market. Take, for
example, the explosion of mobile apps in this decade frequently
theyre built not by large integrated companies, but by an entrepreneur
who contracts out the design, animation, programming and back-end
cloud services to various experts who coalesce to create and deliver
the app. People will increasingly work as free agents or will form into
clusters of small-to-midsize businesses (SMBs). In order to create
products and deliver services, these dynamic mosaics of specialists
will be linked by advanced collaboration tools.
The business processes that IT delivers will likewise be mosaics
mosaics linked by process management and integration technology.
CIOs will thus become innovators, designing business processes and
orchestrating services (as well as architecting the reliability, security
and cost/performance of these processes and services).
35
I.3 Technology
The speed with which teams can be formed from pools of affiliated
specialists will be a competitive advantage to the enterprise, as will be
the degree to which groups are creative and productive. The enterprise
thus needs to ensure it has excellent tools and processes to support
such working methods.
People will increasingly work as

free agents or will form into
clusters of small-to-midsize
businesses (SMBs).
Service providers that offer cloud services to support SMBs will evolve.
They will provide aggregation services allowing SMBs to simply plug
in and go, creating fully functioning companies within a day.
Cloud will become common, secure and reliable. This will allow IT to
evolve from being a support function to becoming a key participant in
business teams. Highly geared business process and application
design tools, coupled with a rich array of cloud services, will allow IT to
quickly create solutions that give the business competitive advantage.
This will require a change of skills in the IT department, from people
focused on operations, to people with skills at the intersection between
business analyst and IT designer.
We believe this is an exciting time for ITthe ability to inject
competitive advantage into business teams will mean that IT is highly
valued by the business.
36
I.3 Technology
Cyber-physical
Systems.
A pharmaceutical factory control system uses an array of sensors to

conserve water, energy and material used in its factory. The system
reduces waste produced by the factory and ensures adherence to all
relevant eco-compliance levels.
By 2020, we will all be acutely aware of the limits on our physical
resources water, energy, minerals and food. We will employ cyberphysical systems (systems built from and based on the synergy of
physical and computational components) to better control our effect on
the environment and our use of resources.
We will use them in buildings, transportation and factories. They will
reduce the waste of spoilage in food and pharmaceuticals.
Cyber-physical systems will account

for an increasing proportion of
building, factory and vehicle costs
as well as value.
Many products in 2020 will have a high cyber-physical content. We are
already seeing this in cars the start-stop and temperature-control
systems in engines have increased energy efficiency. But construction,
food production and pharmaceutical companies of the future must use
these systems too. Cyber-physical systems will account for an
increasing proportion of building, factory and vehicle costs as well
as value.
37
I.3 Technology
Security and
privacy.
In a world where everyone is connected, where there are 1 trillion

sensors and huge increases in the amount of data being stored and
analyzed, todays security systems wont be able to protect our privacy
or keep us safe from determined cyber attackers.
By 2020, security systems will be more adaptive and dynamic in order
to automatically thwart attacks from an ever-increasingly sophisticated
threat landscape. Security systems will harness intelligence to
proactively anticipate and take action against cyber threats they will
find risk before it finds you.
Security systems will harness

intelligence to proactively anticipate
and take action against cyber threats.
38
I.3 Technology
Security topics thatll keep us up at night7

The top security and risk management concerns of todays Senior IT Executives for 2020
Extremely concerned
67%
Data privacy
and information
breaches
Somewhat concerned
Not very concerned
66%
Lack of skilled resources

to effectlvely manage
security
63%
Risk associated with

increased consumption of
application and IT
services across public,
private and hybrid cloud
54%
Intermingling of
personal and business
technology
51%
Disruption caused
by natural or
man-made disasters
46%
Failure to seize on
the latest technology
to protect
systems and data
39
I.3 Technology
Security and privacy have implications at the inter-government level.
With ubiquitous sensors, precisely how much personal information
should be stored or gathered? If everything is RFID tagged, for
example, an individual can determine when and where you bought
your clothes, your watch, your briefcase and your mobile device. Do
you really want someone to be able to do that?
Whatever your decision, one thing is certain: The proportion of effort

the enterprise has to spend on ensuring privacy and security is going
to increase by 2020.
40
See change or
sea change?
Rafal Los writes, Technology as of right now isn't the challenge.We're not
lacking technologies, innovations, or inventions - it's the application thereof
that is lacking...

Nick Peterson believes technological change occurs more out of consumer

desire than necessity, creating a vicious cycle of supply and demand. I
think current technology will enable more and more demand for innovation
based not on necessity of society, but based on the realization that society
wants more and thus it is the desire that is driving the change more than a
need, he writes.
htt
Charles Bess, meanwhile, believes neither necessity or technology itself will

effect change; rather, it will be those closest to the technology either the
creators or the users. When you look at the forcing change in a world
defined by inertia, it is the passion of the change agent that starts the ball
rolling, he writes. If they can gather others around that change it becomes
a movement the market pays attention to movements.
Technology plays a vital role in the future of the enterprise, from the
way products and services are developed to the way end users
consume them. The Enterprise 20/20 community views technology
as the source of both opportunities and challenges as we move
ever closer to a truly connected
society.
HHHHHHHHHHHHH
HHHHHHHHHHHHH
But what will spur the most innovative of technology changes? Will
necessity breed technology changes, or vice versa? Community
members viewed this question not as a chicken-or-egg problem, but
rather an opportunity to discuss how technology and necessity will
both be the problem and the solution.
Personally I see it as a lifecycle or a feedback system, which would
make the answer "both, continuously," says Matt Groeninger, while
Which vertical will spawn greatest tech change?
Perhaps the larger question posed to the Enterprise 20/20 community,

Which vertical market will spawn the greatest technological changes?,
helped members synthesize their views on where technology will come
from, and where it is going. While the larger verticals education,
healthcare, financial services and government were areas of focus for
41
community members, one dark horse the entertainment industry

was tapped as a potential source of technological innovation.
health issues loom larger. They (we) will want affordable, effective,
good care.
When you look at the forcing change

in a world defined by inertia, it is the
passion of the change agent that
starts the ball rolling. Charles Bess
Charles Bess believes the answer lies with the industry that stands
to lose the most. I'd look at what verticals will be under the greatest
amount of pressure since pressure creates innovations (and
diamonds). I doubt that it will be governments, since by their very
nature they are a monopoly, he writes.
My vote is for the media/entertainment industry to be the leaders, writes

James McGovern. They have the best potential of helping visualize the
challenges we face as a society, the ability to distribute the message to
those who need to know and to target those who can help and to finally
solve the awareness challenges of technologies already in existence but
not widely known.
I believe healthcare will bring about huge technology change.The
industry is under pressure to curb costs; at the same time, America is
graying, predicts community member nksinfo.The boomer cohort is
beginning to retire from the workplace and to reach the age where
The very nature of technology development from idea to curation

and development relies on need and a willing consumer base to
ensure success. While we cant predict what technology will be the
next big thing we can dictate which technologies will be a success.
Fig
42
Enterprise
Driven by world trends, and supported by new
technologies, enterprises in 2020 will differ
physically and functionally from todays
enterprises.
43
I.4 Enterprise
Well work in virtual offices

on virtual teams.
The days of the grinding commute to the exurb campus or the

prestigious downtown skyscraper are numbered. Concerns about fuel
shortage and availability of land in megacities cause enterprises in 2020
to radically rethink their real-estate strategies. Ubiquitous cloud
computing has removed the need for every business to have its own
data center; bandwidth supports remote working; and the Millennial
Generation is fully attuned to being productive and cooperative without
constant physical interaction.
As discussed in the technology section, the dynamic mosaics of
specialists connected by collaboration tools become dominant in the
enterprise. The ratio of full-time employees to contracted specialists will
shift dramatically. Today we see IT departments of global corporations
staffed by a mere dozen employees; what impact will we see on other
business functions? Will we see the end of the monolithic corporation
with hundreds of thousands of full-time employees?
44
I.4 Enterprise
Well rely more on systems of

engagement than systems
of record.
In 2011, Geoffrey Moore published a paper detailing systems of

engagement and their role in the future of ITi. By 2020, with
demographic shifts, access to high bandwidth and embrace of
social networking, systems of engagement will be mainstream,
as enterprises seek to cultivate their relationships with customers
around the globe. The real-time impact of social media on brand
reputation and the instant feedback on concepts and launches will
require full-time monitoring and analysis.
The real-time impact of social media

on brand reputation and the instant
feedback on concepts and launches
will require full-time monitoring
and analysis.
Already cited by several sources, some enterprises will appoint Chief
Listening Officers, who will tap into social media and other
communication platforms to better understand changing customer
needs and tastes.
45
I.4 Enterprise
Well use data in real-time and

only preserve whats needed.
In past decades, IT focused on accumulating more and more data in

ERP/MRP/CRM systems and on deploying tools to mine it.
Increasingly, sales and marketing teams will extract more value in the
instant from transient data in social media, web, sensor and mobile
interactions, and enterprises overall will offshore their data to
the cloud.
We will combine marketing, IT and legal expertise to identify what data

must be stored; to determine how long and where to store the data;
and to find new strategies to reduce information lifecycle
management costs.
46
I.4 Enterprise
Well turn changing demographics

into business opportunities.
The major demographic shifts of 2020 throw new sets of customer

needs into focus. By employing managers with a cultural
understanding of Brazil, Russia, India, China and so forth, and by
capturing trends in social media, enterprises in 2020 will easily tap into
the needs of these emerging middle classes. But the more digitally
isolated and retired sectors of society represent an increasingly
profitable segment. Enterprises in 2020 need to tune in to the growing
numbers of seniors to create products and services for people who
may live in retirement for as long as they were in employment.
The more digitally isolated and

retired sectors of society represent
an increasingly profitable segment.
47
I.4 Enterprise
The coming
Gray Bubble 8
POPULATION
50-75 year olds make up a large

share of the 10% increase in
global population by 2020,
presenting market and workforce
implications for enterprises.
140 Million
120 Million
Population by age groups, 2012

Population by age groups, 2020
100 Million
80 Million
60 Million
40 Million
20 Million
Age (years)
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
48
I.4 Enterprise
Well finance, measure and value

our businesses differently.
The enterprise of 2020 is fundamentally different in terms of tangible

assets and direct control of labor. As the mosaic approach becomes
the norm, the CFO must be able to report on the companys ability to
deliver ongoing value with fewer in-house resources. Future stock
market valuations will likely be influenced by perceptions of an
enterprises ability to influence social media networks and capitalize
on insight from them. Will we see some form of Klout score
for enterprises?
Finally, it will become increasingly important, and likely legislated, to
measure and report transparently on total environmental impact of
business operations.
49
I.4 Enterprise
What you need to succeed9

Most valuable skills and capabilities that IT Teams will need in 2020
Valuable
Business
Planning and
Strategy
Neutral
Not valuable
Skills in helping
the business deal
with technology
complexity
Communications
Business Process
Design and
Composition
IT Service
Management
Project Portfolio
Management
Requirements
Management
Agile
Development
Risk
Management
Business Services
Monitoring &
Assurance
50
I.4 Enterprise
Well manage talent

in new ways.
In previous decades, leaders and HR managers focused on employee

recruitment, development and long-term retention. In 2020, enterprises
will shift focus to engaging fluid groups of labor supertemps who
will take on strategic projects for a relatively short period. The HR
leaders of 2020 must address the following questions: Who are the
rock-star supertemps? How do we ensure they keep data
confidential? How do we get them to come back for future projects?
How do we feel about sharing our talent with rivals? HR will evolve into
more of a community management role, doubtless supported by smart
social
In 2020, enterprises will shift

focus to engaging fluid groups
of labor - Supertemps.
51
I.4 Enterprise
Well approach the IT

function differently.
Changes in the world, technology and enterprise of 2020 promise an

interesting future for CIOs and IT leaders. Increasingly, as IT becomes
embedded more deeply into the business, IT leaders will bring innovation
to their enterprises by mastering a digital supply chain of services and
HHHHHHHHHHHHH
HHHHHHHHHHHHH
specialists, agilely designing and launching business processes that

take advantage of new markets, or new opportunities to serve
constituents in the public sector. Like the rest of the economy of 2020,
value will come less from vertical operations and more from intelligent
deployments of mosaics of services and individuals, using the latest
cloud, mobile and social collaboration technologies on top of modern
computing infrastructures.
htt
52
When play
becomes work
Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort with our community
members, and their comments help shape each chapter well after its
published. On the following pages we take the pulse of the
community and highlight some thoughts from the Discussion Hub.
As the enterprise evolves to accommodate a global and
multigenerational workforce as well as shifting cultural mindsets,
the way we approach our work and, indeed, how we interact
with others topped the list of conversations in the Enterprise
20/20 community.
How we work: Will gamification change behavior?

Next-generation technologies and ways of working, such as
gamification in the future enterprise, have captured the minds of
community members, who look at such technology from different
points of view. Some see gamification as childs play a ploy to
pacify a generation brought up on constant praise while others see
the technology as a simple, effective way to change behavior.
With all the analytic capabilities available today, a basic behavioral

understanding can be applied to corporate objectives and goals to adjust
the behavior of the organization to align to a desired future. ... It is not
about making things "fun" but instead of changing behavior in a goaloriented fashion, writes Charles Bess.
Games are a relatively inexpensive

way to train people or run experiments
and simulations. Charles Bess
Horia Slusanschi agrees: Games can be used to engage with customers
or partners in new ways and draw them to your brand. Games can also
be used in-house to develop better awareness of various ideas, habits or
opportunities. Games are a relatively inexpensive way to train people or
run experiments and simulations.
Or will gamification be childs play?

Dennis Kruegel, however, sees gamification differently. I think of an oldfashioned company with strict hierarchies and a command environment
rather than a collaboration environment ... I can't imagine such a
53
I can't imagine such a company applying gamification concepts

internally, because for such a company the terms "play" and "work"
don't fit together. Either you play (that includes Social Media) or you
work. Performing well in a job in such a company is not seen as a
game, but as a duty.
One thing is for certain: Change is a constant, and what may be
seen a trivial or frivolous today may become an integral part of
working tomorrow.
Fig
54
Discussion
As we look to 2020, we are excited about the
promise technology holds to help us address
the opportunities and challenges in our rapidly
changing world. As professionals, we have a
responsibility to look forward, to play out
scenarios and challenge one another to
sharpen our vision.
55
Coming from different countries, different industries,

from inside and outside IT, we each bring a unique
perspective to the question were proposing:
What will matter in 2020?
56
I.5 Discussion
What will matter in 2020?

In this introduction, weve highlighted some trends and shared some
opinions. But what we really want to know is how are you envisioning
the future? What shifts and trends matter in your industry? To your
enterprise? To your profession?
During the next six months, the Enterprise 20/20 community will be
diving deeply into domains that matter most to our professions. Well
be looking horizontally across the boardroom, the apps team, the
marketing department, the IT operations center and the CIO of 2020.
And well be looking vertically at specific industries financial
services, telecommunications, public sector, manufacturing and others.
htt
57
The Enterprise
2020 wish list
Of all the discussions generated by the Enterprise 20/20 project,
perhaps one of the liveliest focuses on the enterprise 2020 wish
list. Answers were varied but a common theme emerged: To foster
future success, enterprises must begin to operate with a mindset
that benefits its customers and its employees.
Thomas Abel had one seemingly simple yet critical wish:
Collaboration and cooperation of all stakeholders on any level(s)
cross the organization(s) to make the full potential of all involved
people available for the enterprise in 2020.
Interestingly, technologies of any kind didnt show up on community
members radars; rather, a change in corporate attitude and ways of
doing business topped the list.
Transparency, reduced latency and a strategic vision. ... there is too

much that is attributed to analyst demands and organizational politics
and not enough focused on the common good, writes Charles Bess. If
goals and initiatives are clearly stated and supported by employees and
stakeholders, the futility of the quarterly pressures response can be seen
for what it really is.
We need to cater for a global,

distributed, diverse workforce, many
of whom are working from small hubs
or home office. Mark Wilkinson
Marc Wilkinson engaged a more global mindset: We need to cater for a
global, distributed, diverse workforce, many of whom are working from
small hubs or home office - this changes culture in many ways we are
still learning, but interaction (and engagement), communication,
collaboration are all at the heart of the problem, he writes.
As we look at the comments from the Enterprise 20/20 community, its
clear technology plays only part of the role in building a successful
58
enterprise. It takes strong leadership, willingness to adapt to changing

needs and a keen awareness of the global marketplace. Having such
a foundation can only foster innovative, game-changing technology.
59
I.6 Sources
Graphics
1. http://www.citymayors.com/statistics/urban_2020_1.html
7. IDG Research Services, IT Executives Vision, conducted for HP, for 20/20,
May 2012
2. The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries, Homi Kharas, Brookings

Institution, June, 2011
8. US Census Bureau
3. Guardian UK
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/mar/02/cctv-cameras-watching-surveillance
9. IDG Research Services, IT Executives Vision, conducted for HP,

for 20/20, May 2012
4. IDG Research Services, IT Executives Vision, conducted for HP, for 20/20,
May 2012
5a National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, 2030 Report
http://www.nistep.go.jp/
Text
a. Source: US Census Bureau
5b Guardian UK, Launching a New Kind of Warfare

http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2006/oct/26/
guardianweeklytechnologysection.robots
b. Source: US Census Bureau
5c BBC News
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/6425927.stm #
d. Source: UNFPA (United Nations Population Fund), Demographic, Social

and Economic Indicators, 2007
5d BBC News
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/6425927.stm #
e. Source: City Mayors, The worlds largest cities and urban areas in
2020, 2012
5e National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, 2030 Report

http://www.nistep.go.jp/
f. Source: IDC iView, The Digital Universe Decade Are You Ready?
May 2010
5f Techcasts, Technology Forecast Results

http://www.techcast.org/Forecasts.aspx#
g. Source: UMTS Forum, Mobile traffic forecasts 2010-2020 (commissioned

research conducted by IDATE), January 2011
5g ScienceDaily, Scientists Developing Robotic Hand of the Future

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/06/110629083237.htm
h. Source: Display Search, 3D Display Technology and Market Forecast

Report, 2010
5h Marshall Brain, Robotic Nation

http://www.marshallbrain.com/robotic-nation.htm
i. Source: Forbes Magazine, Systems of Engagement and the Future of IT,

Geoffrey Moore, 2012
5i Guardian UK, Launching a New Kind of Warfare

http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2006/oct/26/
guardianweeklytechnologysection.robots#
6. UMTS Forum, Mobile Traffic Forecasts 2010-20/20, January 2011
c. Source: Frost and Sullivan, 50th Anniversay: 50 Predictions for 50, 2011
The views set forth in this publication are not necessarily those of Hewlett-Packard
Company or its affiliates (HP), but are the collective views of contributors to this publication,
some of which have been curated by HP. Because the content of this publication is futurelooking, it, by definition, makes certain presuppositions and assumptions, some or all of
which may or may not be realized.
60

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Introduction

So, what will a successful enterprise look like in

To imagine the future of the enterprise, we must

But if we gather thousands of thinkers from the enterprise

Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort to imagine,

Together, we will examine trends, challenge assumptions

I.1 Community Discussion Highlights

differently depending on the device. And, context would travel

I.1 Community Discussion Highlights

I am a strong believer that the cloud

Go to the next Community Discussion page

Imagining the world of tomorrow means looking

Young and old, more people will

Active seniors will bring valuable experience to the workforce, provided

To address the consumer preferences of the social media-savvy

Simultaneously, well see the graying of the population in so-called

Rise of the Mega Cities

16 of the largest 20 cities

Projected total of growth %, 2006 TO 2020

The middle class in developing

In parallel to population growth, well see a marked shift in the balance

The shifting middle classes2

United States 12%

We should expect to see global tastes in fashion and entertainment

Resource scarcity will make us

Necessity breeds invention. Scarcity of natural resources, from energy

Population growth and the rise

In particular, they hold the promise of lower carbon footprints per

Well lose our village connections,

Our connectedness and the pervasiveness of information continue to

We will wrestle with our often

As we share more of our personal data across social network sites,

In 2020, the threat of identity misuse

Hackers, cyber criminals and cyber

I.2 Community Discussion Highlights

Glass is half full

Although some countries have announced a national broadband plan,

An interesting question that may develop: Will the definition of ICT

ICT: Glass half empty

I.2 Community Discussion Highlights

in bandwidth and quality should probably be few orders of magnitude

The effects of culture on enterprises

will grow up in a more global society, he writes. New generations will be

When it comes to diversity, it is

Both discussions highlight the importance of communication to the

Go to the next Community Discussion page

Looking at technologies that may be available by

Autonomous transportation systems will manage vehicle flow through a

The amount of data in the world is set to increase by 44 times from

The amount of data in the world

IT management in 2020 will be very

By 2020, robotic medical assistants will make the hospital rounds,

As data continues to expand through increased human usage, people

By 2020, our scarcest resource will

Personalizing the power

By 2020, most of us will have mobile devices. These devices will be

Mobile traffic multiplies6

This combination of advanced mobile front-ends and analysis-capable

For example, an architect works with an architectural cloud service via

By 2020, our mobile devices will

By 2020, many more business opportunities will be served by clusters

People will increasingly work as

A pharmaceutical factory control system uses an array of sensors to

Cyber-physical systems will account