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Prediction of landslide occurrence based on

slope-instability analysis and hydrological
model simulation
Article in Journal of Hydrology September 2009
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.053

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Journal of Hydrology 375 (2009) 489497

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Journal of Hydrology
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jhydrol

Prediction of landslide occurrence based on slope-instability analysis

and hydrological model simulation
Kwan Tun Lee *, Jui-Yi Ho
Department of River and Harbor Engineering, National Taiwan Ocean University, Keelung 202, Taiwan, ROC

a r t i c l e

i n f o

Article history:
Received 16 May 2009
Accepted 28 June 2009

This manuscript was handled by

K. Georgakakos, Editor-in-Chief, with the
assistance of Gunter Bloschl, Associate
Editor
Keywords:
Landslide prediction
Slope-instability analysis
Hydrological model

s u m m a r y
Hillslope failure usually occurs as soil resistance deteriorates in the presence of the acting stress developed by a rising groundwater level during rainstorms. The present study adopted a slope-instability analysis and a hydrological model for landslide prediction during heavy rainstorms. Variation of the
groundwater table on hillslope was simulated by using the hydrological model and then the temporal
groundwater level at each grid was substituted into the slope-instability analysis to determine the instability of the grids in watersheds for prediction of massive landslides.
Hydrological records from two landslide-prone areas in northern Taiwan were collected. Digital elevation model was adopted to obtain the geomorphologic factors required for the slope-instability analysis
and the hydrological model. The spatial distribution of soil thickness required for performing the innite
slope model was estimated by using a wetness index. Results showed that the temporal variation of the
percentage of unstable grids in the study watersheds basically followed the variation of rainfall hyetographs. The percentage of the unstable grids reached a maximum value when the centroid of the hyetograph passed. A comparison between the landslide records and the model analytical results revealed that
a massive landslide might occur if more than 50% of the grids in the subwatershed were classied as
unstable in the study areas. The predicted time and location of landslide occurrence were consistent with
those obtained from eld investigations. It is therefore considered promising to apply the developed analytical method for landslide warning to alleviate the loss of lives and property.
2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Introduction
Landslides often occur during heavy rainstorms in highly developed mountainous terrains, resulting in casualties and property
losses. The possible time and locations where landslides are likely
to occur should thus be identied in advance in order to avoid or
reduce the harm. In this regard, establishing a landslide warning
system which provides information for evacuation and hazard mitigating is a top priority.
Prediction of rainfall-triggered hillslope disasters has relied
mostly on the valley slope (Campbell, 1975; Ellen and Wieczorek,
1988), rainfall intensity and duration that can cause hillslope failure (Caine, 1980; Cannon and Ellen, 1985; Wieczorek, 1987; Keefer et al., 1987). However, these important empirical methods did
not provide a theoretical framework as to how hydrological processes can affect landslide occurrence in terms of the time and
location, and how landslide hazards may occur as a result of climate change and land use. Recently, theoretical models have been
developed to predict landslide susceptibility based on watershed
* Corresponding author. Fax: +886 2 24634122.
E-mail address: ktlee@ntou.edu.tw (K.T. Lee).
0022-1694/$ - see front matter 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.053

topographic, geologic and hydrological variables as well as

changes in landuse (Montgomery and Dietrich, 1994; Montgomery et al., 1998; Iverson, 2000; Hong et al., 2006; Rosso et al.,
2006; Crosta and Frattini 2008). The rapidly growing availability
of relatively detailed digital elevation data, coupled with simple
slope-instability mechanism and hillslope hydrological models,
has led to advances in physically-based modeling of shallow landslide hazard (Montgomery and Dietrich, 1994; Wu and Sidle,
1995). Casadei et al. (2003) proposed a landslide warming system
using a slope-instability analysis and a hydrological model to predict the time and location of landslides. The landslide predicting
capability of their approach has been veried by using historical
data of landslide events for Montara Mountains of California from
19531998.
In the slope-instability analysis, an innite slope model is usually adopted with dened physical parameters in the study area.
Temporal variation of the groundwater level is an important factor
for hillslope stability, and it can be generated from a hydrological
model by using real-time rainfall data as the input. Information
on the spatial distribution of soil thickness in the valley is also required in order to conduct the slope-instability analysis. Nevertheless, this information on landslide-prone areas is rarely obtained

490

K.T. Lee, J.-Y. Ho / Journal of Hydrology 375 (2009) 489497

(Okimura, 1989; DeRose et al., 1991, 1993). Soil of spatially constant thickness and saturated conductivity were adopted in the
analysis of Montgomery and Dietrich (1994). Wu and Sidle
(1995) used few soil-thickness sampling data for their analysis.
Dietrich et al. (1995) proposed a soil-thickness estimation model
based on mass balance between the soil production from underlying bedrock and the divergence of diffusive soil transport. Van
Westen and Terlien (1996) and Delmonaco et al. (2003) used a
soil-thickness map to represent the connection between soil thickness and slope angle. Their approaches have provided a simple way
to fulll the requirement of soil-thickness data for a slope-instability analysis.
In this study, a hydrological simulation based on a modied version of TOPMODEL was developed to estimate the temporal
groundwater level for conducting the slope-instability analysis.
TOPMODEL is a physically based, semi-distributed catchment runoff model that has been applied worldwide (Beven and Kirkby,
1979; Beven et al., 1995; Campling et al., 2002; Peters et al.,
2003). A wetness index, ln (a/tan b), in which a is the contributing
area and tan b is the local slope, is used in TOPMODEL to describe
the tendency of water to accumulate and to be moved downslope
by gravitational forces (Kirkby, 1975). In considering the concentrated rainstorms that often result in landslides in Taiwan, a Hortonian surface runoff mechanic algorithm using a non-inertia
wave approximation was included in the TOPMODEL framework
to account for a large amount of surface runoff in severe rainstorms. Moreover, the spatial distribution of soil thickness required
for performing the innite slope model was estimated by using the
wetness index. The spatial distributions of the groundwater table
and soil thickness were then substituted into the slope-instability
analysis to estimate unstable grids in the watershed. The analytical
methodology was adopted to predict the time and location of landslide occurrence in two mountainous watersheds in northern
Taiwan.

The analytical method coupled an innite slope model, a hydrological model and a simple way to estimate the spatial distribution
of soil thickness in the valley. The groundwater level and soil thickness were the required factors for analysis as the innite slope
model calculated the instability of the soil prism for landslide
potentiality. Accordingly, a hydrological model was adopted to
estimate the temporal variation of groundwater table, and the spatial distribution of the wetness index (Kirkby, 1975) was used to
estimate soil thickness on hillslopes.

ted zone

S aturate

zj

Dj
d zone

S lip su rf
ace

hw

Bedro ck

Fig. 1. Schematic diagrams of the coupled hydrological-slope instability model.

Dietrich et al., 1995; Wu and Sidle, 1995; Iverson, 2000; Casadei

et al., 2003; Delmonaco et al., 2003).
The time-dependent part on Eq. (1) is the groundwater height
(hw) which uctuates according to rainfall on the hillslope. When
FS < 1, the driving force prevails over the resistance and thus slope
failure will occur; when FS > 1, the driving force is smaller than the
resistance so the hillslope remains stable. In the innite slope model, the slope inclination can be determined by using a digital elevation model (DEM) which is a digital representation of ground
surface topography. The soil bulk density, the effective cohesion
and effective friction angle can be determined by eld soil sampling. The groundwater level above the slip surface and soil thickness can be estimated by using the following methods.

To accomplish the requirement of groundwater level when calculating the FS in Eq. (1), watershed runoff simulations are required. In this study, a hydrological simulation framework based
on TOPMODEL (Beven and Kirkby, 1979) is developed. In the TOPMODEL, the depth from the hillslope to the groundwater table is
estimated based on the assumption of an exponential decay of
hydraulic conductivity in relation to the depth, and a quasi-steady
state conguration of the groundwater table is parallel to the local
surface slope. The depth to the groundwater level can be expressed
as

"

Innite slope model

The innite slope model, which is characterized by soil and hillslope topographic characteristics, is used to calculate the instability of a soil prism (Skempton and DeLory, 1957). As shown in Fig. 1,
the slip surface is assumed to be the soilbedrock interface, and the
subsurface water ow is assumed to be parallel to the ground surface. The factor of safety, which is dened as the ratio of the resistance to the driving force, can be expressed as

C Dqs  hw qw g cos2 b tan /

qs gD sin b cos b

U nsatura

ne

Hydrological simulating for groundwater level

Analytical method

FS

R oot zo

where FS is the factor of safety; C is the effective cohesion; g is the

gravitational acceleration; qs is the soil bulk density; qw is the
water density; D is soil thickness; hw is the groundwater table above
the slip surface; b is the inclination of the hillslope, and / is the soil
effective friction angle. Eq. (1) has been widely applied to analyze
the instability of hillslopes (e.g. Montgomery and Dietrich, 1994;

#
a
zj z m k  ln
tan b j


where zj is the depth from the ground surface to the groundwater

table at a specied location j; z is the average depth of the groundwater table in the watershed; m is a recession constant; a is the upstream collecting area per unit contour length of the specied
point; tan b is the local slope. The variable ln (a/tan b) denotes the
wetness index (Kirkby, 1975), and k is the mean value of the wetness index in the watershed. At each time step, the average depth
of the groundwater table in the watershed can be computed as

zt 1 zt Q b t  Dt  Q v t  Dt

where Qb(t) is the output from the saturated zone as baseow, and
Qv(t) is the surface recharge to the groundwater table. The baseow
from the saturated zone can be estimated as (Beven, 1986)



zt
Q b t K o m expk exp 
m

491

K.T. Lee, J.-Y. Ho / Journal of Hydrology 375 (2009) 489497

To account for the concentrated rainstorms in Taiwan that usually produce a large amount of surface runoff during typhoons, the
GreenAmpt equation (Green and Ampt, 1911) was adopted to
estimate the inltration excess and then a non-inertia wave model
was used to simulate the transport of runoff during a storm. The
non-inertia wave routing equations, including continuity and
momentum equations, can be written as follows

@h @U  h

ie
@t
@x
@h
Sf So 
@x

6
7

where h is the ow depth; U is the ow velocity which can be determined by Mannings equation; Sf is the friction slope; So is the bed
slope; ie is the sum of the inltration excess and the quantity of local water table above the ground surface (zi < 0) estimated by the
TOPMODEL.
The numerical solution for the non-inertia wave approximation
was accomplished through the explicit nite-difference scheme
proposed by MacCormack (1969). The MacCormack scheme has
second order accuracy. It is probably the simplest of the available
explicit, dissipative numerical scheme which has been widely used
in hydraulic applications. A forward nite-difference scheme for
the prediction step and a backward scheme for the correction step
are included in the algorithm. In the prediction step, the continuity
and momentum equations can be written as


Dt  j
j
j
U  h  U ji  hi  ie ji  Dt
Dx i1 i1


h  hi
Sfi Soi  i1
Dx
j

hi hi 

Fig. 2. Location maps of the Chung-Ho and Da-Tsu-Keng watersheds. (a) Chung-Ho
watershed (W1) and (b) Da-Tsu-Keng watershed (W2).

where Ko is the saturated hydraulic conductivity. The recharge to

the groundwater table can be estimated as (Beven, 1997)

Q v t



1X
z t
aK o Aj exp  j
A j
m

where j is the time index; i is the space index; Dt is the time interval; Dx is the distance between grids centers of i and i + 1; superscript  denotes the prediction state. A backward scheme for the
continuity equation in the correction step is shown as

5
j



hi hi 

where A is the total catchment area; Aj is the area for the vertical
ux at a specied location j. a is the effective vertical hydraulic gradient set to unity, which assumes that the vertical ux is equal to
the saturated hydraulic conductivity at the water table (Beven
et al., 1995).

Dt 


U  h  U i  hi  ie ji  Dt
Dx i1 i1

10

where superscript  denotes the correction state. Finally, the ow

depth for grid i at time j + 1 is computed as
j1

hi

1 

h hi
2 i

11

Table 1
Geomorphologic factors of study watersheds.
Watershed

Stream
order i

ith-order stream
number Ni

ith-order contributing

ith-order channel

ith-order overland

ith-order channel

area Ai (km2)

length Lci (km)

slope Soi (m/m)

slope Sci (m/m)

Chung-Ho
(W1 watershed)

1
2

2
1

0.43
1.40

1.07
0.50

0.554
0.471

0.248
0.176

Da-Tsu-Keng
(W1 watershed)

1
2

3
1

0.22
1.91

0.32
1.74

0.631
0.649

0.259
0.104

Table 2
The variation of the safety of factor for Typhoon Xangsane during October 30 November 2, 2000.
Watershed

Subwatershed

Area (km2)

FS at initial condition

FS at the time for landslide occurrence

W1

I
II
III
IV

0.68
0.16
0.08
0.20

1.46
1.24
1.76
1.67

1.18
0.93
1.46
1.36

W2

I
II
III

0.39
0.31
0.22

1.65
1.42
1.13

1.47
1.24
0.98

492

K.T. Lee, J.-Y. Ho / Journal of Hydrology 375 (2009) 489497

30

25

i (mm/hr)

Field measured data

R 2 = 0.848

20

20
40
60
80
100
2000

15

recorded
simulation

D = 0.1 ln

1600

Q (m3/s)

10

m = 0.023 m

1200
800
400

0
0.0

0.5

1.0
1.5
2.0
Soil thickness, D (m)

2.5

3.0
0

Fig. 3. Relationship between soil thickness and wetness index in northern Taiwan.

The friction slope for grid i at time j + 1 can then be obtained as

j1

Sj1
So i 
fi

K 0 = 5.83 103 m/s

j1

hi1  hi
Dx

12

Hence, the surface-ow depth and discharge are applied to the

next time step to provide a continuous runoff simulation.
When performing the modied version of TOPMODEL, the wetness index and ground slope can be estimated by using a DEM. The
parameters Ko and m can be calibrated by using hydrological records. As a result, the spatial distribution of the depth from the
ground surface to the groundwater table can be successfully
estimated.

12

24

36

48

60

72

84

96

Time (hr)
Fig. 5. Hydrograph simulation of the Chieh-Shou Bridge watershed in Typhoon
Xangsane.

Estimating spatial distribution of soil thickness

The thickness of soil mantle, which coincides with the failure
depth, is a critical parameter in the slope-instability analysis. However, soil thickness is rarely mapped, and it is unfeasible to carry
out eld measurements over a large watershed. As shown in the
aforementioned section, the approach taken by the TOPMODEL is
attractive because it can be used to predict the spatial distribution
of water content, groundwater levels and lateral ows using only a
limited amount of watershed topographic information. The wetness index, ln (a/tan b), can be used to describe the tendency of
water to accumulate and to be moved downslope by gravitational
forces. The value of the wetness index is higher near the bottom of
the valley and lower on watershed ridges. Since the spatial distributions for soil thickness and for the wetness index in the valley
reveal identical tendency, applying the wetness index to estimate
the spatial distribution of soil thickness and verifying the value
of thickness by using a small amount of eld-measured data are
reliable approaches.
In this study, a linear relationship between the wetness index
and soil thickness is assumed, which can be expressed as

Dj C S  lna= tan bj

13

where Dj is the soil thickness at a specied location j; ln(a/ tan b)j is

the wetness index at j, and CS is a constant which can be estimated
by using eld-measured data for soil thickness. As shown in Fig. 1,
the water table height above the slip surface, hw, is equal to Dj  zj,
which can be calculated by using Eqs. (2) and (13). The factor of
safety (Eq. (1)) can therefore be used to estimate the instability of
the soil prism.

Model applications
Description of the study watersheds

Fig. 4. Spatial distribution of soil thickness in W1 and W2 watersheds. (a) W1

watershed and (b) W2 watershed.

To demonstrate the capability of the proposed landslide prediction model, hydrological records from two landslide-prone areas in
northern Taiwan were collected to conduct the slope-instability

K.T. Lee, J.-Y. Ho / Journal of Hydrology 375 (2009) 489497

Intensity (mm/hr)

1000

493

Caine (1980)
Cannon & Ellen (1985)
Wieczorek (1987)
Hong et al. (2006)
T = 2 yr.
T = 10 yr.
T = 50 yr.
T = 100 yr.

100

10

12

16

20

Duration (hour)

(a) W1 watershed (San-Ho rain-gauging station)

Intensity (mm/hr)

1000

Caine (1980)
Cannon & Ellen (1985)
Wieczorek (1987)
Hong et al. (2006)
T = 2 yr.
T = 10 yr.
T = 50 yr.
T = 100 yr.

100

10

12

16

20

Duration (hour)

(b) W2 watershed (Jui-Fang rain-gauging station)

Fig. 6. Hydrological records of the study watersheds comparing with empirical
intensityduration threshold curves for landslide-producing prediction.

Fig. 7. Spatial distributions of the FS at the time for landslide occurrence in W1 and
W2 watersheds.

cords show that high rainfall intensity caused by typhoons and

thunderstorms occurs mostly between June and October in these
areas.
During October 30November 2, 2000, Typhoon Xangsane
caused severe damage to northeastern Taiwan, resulting in 64
deaths and agricultural losses of US$ 110 million. A large-scale
landslide occurred at 00:00 on November 1 in W1 as 774 mm of
rainfall fell in a single day and the maximum hourly rainfall intensity reached 70 mm/h. The resulting debris ow traveled down the
narrow San-Ho stream for more than 1.5 km, leaving an obvious
disruption surface of 845 m in width. The debris ow covered
the entire area of a village, destroyed around 30 houses, and isolated the village for approximately 30 h (Chen et al., 2006).
A large-scale debris ow also occurred in W2 during this typhoon; several small-scale landslides took place in the upper
branch. Subsequently, the ash collapse of the landslide deposition
initiated the debris ow at 10:50 on November 1. A total of 16
damaged buildings, together with seven dead, four injured and
one missing had been reported in this event (Chen et al., 2004).
Model parameters calibration

analysis. Fig. 2 shows the locations of the Chung-Ho Watershed

(W1) and Da-Tsu-Keng Watershed (W2) where large-scale landslides occurred as Typhoon Xangsane swept through Taiwan in
November 2000. Most areas in these two watersheds are composed
of sedimentary, metamorphic and eruptive rocks. The area of W1 is
1.40 km2 with an average slope of 0.535; the area is 1.91 km2 with
a slope of 0.638 for W2. There is no hydrological gauging station
within either watershed. The nearest rain-gauging station for W1
is San-Ho which is about 1.3 km away from the outlet of W1.
The nearest rain-gauging station for W2, Jui-Fang, is located
3.5 km away from the outlet of W2. Since the watershed sizes for
W1 and W2 are quite small, the temporal rainfall intensities measured at San-Ho and Jui-Fang were assumed spatial uniformity in
W1 and W2, respectively. The average annual rainfall is approximately 3000 mm as measured by these two stations. Rainfall re-

The proposed analytical procedure is based on a hydrological

model and a slope-instability analysis. Detailed topographic information of the study watersheds was required for conducting the
analysis. Digital elevation data set in a 5 m resolution was obtained
from aerial photographs provided by the Agricultural and Forestry
Aerial Survey Institute of Taiwan. Fig. 2 shows the watershed
boundaries and stream network extracted from the 5 m resolution
data set by using a DEM (Lee, 1998). The elevation of W1 ranges
from 100 m to 1074 m above mean sea level with a mainstream
length of 2481 m. The elevation of W2 ranges from 80 m to
525 m and the mainstream length is 2010 m. Detailed geomorphologic factors are listed in Table 1. In W1, the value of the wetness
index ranges from 4.77 to 19.89 with an average of 6.77, and the
index ranges from 4.28 to 19.96 with an average of 6.37 in W2.

Rainfall (mm/hr)

494

K.T. Lee, J.-Y. Ho / Journal of Hydrology 375 (2009) 489497

24 km away from the outlet of W1 and 3 km from that of W2.

Hourly rainfall records from Jui-Fang and Huo-Shao-Liao raingauging stations and temperature record from Taipei weather stations were also collected. The recorded rainfall of the two stations
was averaged over the watershed by applying the Thiessen polygons method. The hourly average rainfall was then applied to the
modied version of TOPMODEL to generate runoff hydrographs.
Five historical rainstorms from 1995 to 2000 were used for model
parameter calibration. Simulation of an example rainstorm for Typhoon Xangsane is shown in Fig. 5. The simulated and recorded
hydrographs are in good agreement for the storm, which demonstrates the applicability of the modied version of TOPMODEL in
northern Taiwan. The calibrated hydraulic conductivity for the surface soil, Ko, was 5.83  103 m/s and the recession constant, m,
was 0.023 m. These calibrated parameter values were basically
within the ranges reported by previous researchers (Beven, 1997).

20
40
60
80
2
1.8

Subwatershed I
Subwatershed II
Subwatershed III
Subwatershed IV

Landslide occurred

1.6

FS

1.4
1.2
1
0.8

Analytical results and discussion

0.6
29-Oct

30-Oct

31-Oct

1-Nov

2-Nov

3-Nov

Time

Rainfall (mm/hr)

(a) W1 watershed
0
20
40
60
80
2

Subwatershed I
Subwatershed II
Subwatershed III

Landslide occurred

1.8
1.6

FS

1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
29-Oct

30-Oct

31-Oct
Time

1-Nov

2-Nov

(b) W2 watershed
Fig. 8. Temporal variation of the spatial average FS value in the study watersheds
during Typhoon Xangsane.

Soil thickness data from 17 points in northern Taiwan were collected. The soil thickness ranged from 0 m to 2 m, in which thin soil
was found on narrow ridges and thick colluviums were accumulated at the bottom of the valley (more than 1 m). As shown in
Fig. 3, a linear relationship between the soil thickness and wetness
index can be found. The R-square value for this regression is 0.848.
Consequently, the CS value in Eq. (13) was set equal to 0.1. By using
Eq. (13), the soil thickness was found in a range from 0.48 m to
1.99 m in W1 and 0.43 m to 2.00 m in W2. Fig. 4 shows the spatial
distribution of soil thickness in W1 and W2, and thick soil is found
at the bottom of the valley and thin soil near the ridges.
The modied version of TOPMODEL developed in this study is a
semi-distributed conceptual model. The model parameters cannot
be obtained directly through eld measurements. Since both W1
and W2 were ungauged, hydrological records from a nearby
gauged watershed were collected and used to calibrate the parameters. The outlet of the watershed is located at Chieh-Shou Bridge
where hourly ow record is available. Chieh-Shou Bridge is located

Hillslope failure occurs as the strength of soil fails to resist the

acting stress developed by the rising groundwater level in strong
rainstorms. Consequently, landslides are found related to the rainfall intensityduration statistics from rainfall records. Fig. 6 shows
a comparison of rainfall intensitydurationfrequency (IDF) curves
using the rainfall records from San-Ho and Jui-Fang gauging stations and the available landslide-producing threshold curves reported by different research groups (Caine, 1980; Cannon and
Ellen, 1985; Wieczorek, 1987; Hong et al., 2006). For a specied
rainfall duration, the rainfall intensities obtained from San-Ho
and Jui-Fang were signicantly larger than the landslide-producing
threshold values presented by the previous research groups, which
was especially true for high return period. It demonstrates the fact
that the empirical intensityduration threshold curves are indeed
site-specic and thus should not be applied to the landslide prediction in northern Taiwan. Therefore, a physically-based model may
be a better choice for a landslide warning system.
Fig. 7 presents the spatial distributions of the factor of safety
(FS) generated from the physically-based model at the recorded
time of landslide occurrence in the two watersheds. In regard to
conducting the slope-instability analysis for the typhoon storms,
the hydrological model started 3 months prior to the typhoon invasion all the way till the end of the storms. The reason for allowing
the 3-month-early simulation before the storm was to generate a
prior groundwater table height as an initial condition to account
for the antecedent moisture condition of the watershed. As Fig. 7
demonstrates, the darkness grids represent the FS value less than
unity. This implies that the rainstorm is very likely to bring about
a landslide at the darkness grids. The unstable grids assessed by
the model as shown in the gure have completely covered the
landslide zones reported by eld investigations, as presented in
Fig. 2.
In order to precisely predict the locations of landslide areas in
W1 and W2, the spatial average FS values (FS) for different subwatersheds at the conuences of the stream networks were further
studied. Consequently, four subwatersheds in W1 and three in W2
were examined. The subwatersheds were numbered as shown in
Fig. 2. Fig. 8 shows that temporal variations of FS in these subwatersheds mainly follow the shape of the rainfall hyetograph because high rainfall intensity provides more water to inltrate into
soil to raise the groundwater table. A high groundwater level (hw)
can reduce soil resistance and result in a lower FS value. As shown
in Fig. 8, Subwatershed II in W1 was unstable during the intense
rainstorm period but the hillslopes remained stable in Subwatersheds I, III, and IV. In W2 watershed, Subwatersheds I & II were stable but Subwatershed III revealed unstable (see Table 2). The
recorded landslide zones within the subwatersheds (Subwatershed

495

0
20
40
60
80
1.4

60
50

1.2

FS

40
30

20
10

0.8
13-Oct

14-Oct

15-Oct

16-Oct

17-Oct

0
18-Oct

Percentage of unstable grids (%)

i (mm/hr)

K.T. Lee, J.-Y. Ho / Journal of Hydrology 375 (2009) 489497

0
20
40
60
80
60

1.4

50
40

FS

1.2

30
20

10
0.8
23-Oct

24-Oct

25-Oct

26-Oct

27-Oct

0
28-Oct

Percentage of unstable grids (%)

i (mm/hr)

(a) Typhoon Zeb (1998/10/13~1998/10/17)

0
20
40
60
80

Landslide occurred

1.4

60
50
40

FS

1.2

30
20

10
0.8
29-Oct

30-Oct

31-Oct

1-Nov

2-Nov

0
3-Nov

Percentage of unstable grids (%)

i (mm/hr)

(b) Typhoon Babs (1998/10/23~1998/10/27)

(c) Typhoon Xangsane (2000/10/29~2000/11/2)

Percentage of unstable grids
Factor of safety
Fig. 9. Temporal variation of the percentage of unstable grids for Subwatershed II in W1 watershed for three typhoon events.

II in W1 and Subwatershed III in W2 shown in Fig. 2) were found

unstable in this study, and the time for FS < 1 to occur in the subwatershed approximated to the time of landslide occurrence as
recorded.
To verify the capability of the proposed methodology for landslide prediction, hydrological records from two additional severe

typhoons (Typhoon Zeb and Typhoon Babs in 1998) were collected

to perform the models and to check the hillslope instability at Subwatershed II in W1 and Subwatershed III in W2. Typhoon Zeb hit
northern Taiwan from October 13 to October 17 in 1998. One week
later, a subsequent typhoon, Babs, struck the nation from October
23 to October 27. Typhoon Zeb resulted in 28 dead, 27 injured and

0
20
40
60
80
1.4

60
50
40

FS

1.2

30
1

20
10

0.8
13-Oct

14-Oct

15-Oct

16-Oct

0
17-Oct

Percentage of unstable grids (%)

K.T. Lee, J.-Y. Ho / Journal of Hydrology 375 (2009) 489497

i (mm/hr)

496

0
20
40
60
80
1.4

60
50

1.2

FS

40
30

1.0

20
10

0.8
23-Oct

24-Oct

25-Oct

26-Oct

0
27-Oct

Percentage of unstable grids (%)

i (mm/hr)

(a) Typhoon Zeb (1998/10/13~1998/10/16)

0
20
40
60
80

Landslide occurred
1.4

60
50
40

FS

1.2

30
1.0

20
10

0.8
29-Oct

30-Oct

31-Oct

1-Nov

0
2-Nov

Percentage of unstable grids (%)

i (mm/hr)

(b) Typhoon Babs (1998/10/23~1998/10/26)

(c) Typhoon Xangsane (2000/10/29~2000/11/1)

Percentage of unstable grids
Factor of safety
Fig. 10. Temporal variation of the percentage of unstable grids for Subwatershed III in W2 watershed for three typhoon events.

10 missing. The total losses in Taiwan reached US$ 156 million. Typhoon Babs killed three people and caused another three missing,
and agricultural losses amounted to US$ 12 million. Nevertheless,
these two typhoons did not induce landslide in the study
watersheds.
Fig. 9 shows the temporal variation of the FS and the percentage
of the unstable grids at Subwatershed II of W1 for the three severe

typhoon events. As shown in the gure, the percentage of the

unstable grids increases as rainfall accumulates. When the concentrated rainfall peak occurs, the percentage of the unstable grids
reaches the maximum value and then the percentage of the unstable grids gradually decreases. The maximum percentages of the
unstable grids at Subwatershed II were 39.21% regarding Typhoon
Zeb, 33.08% regarding Typhoon Babs, and 50.10% regarding

K.T. Lee, J.-Y. Ho / Journal of Hydrology 375 (2009) 489497

Typhoon Xangsane. Fig. 10 shows that the percentages of unstable

grids in Subwatershed III of W2 were 30.19% regarding Zeb, 35.68%
regarding Babs, and 50.88% regarding Xangsane. The percentages
of the unstable grids in the two recorded landslide zones during
Zeb and Babs were all less than 40%; however, Xangsane resulted
in more than 50% of unstable grids in those areas. In regard to
Xangsane, the maximum percentage of the unstable grids at Subwatershed II of W1 reached 50.10% at 00:00, November 1, 2000,
which corresponded to the recorded time of landslide occurrence.
In Subwatershed III of W2, the maximum percentage of the unstable grids reached 50.88% at 11:00, November 1, 2000, which also
corresponded to the landslide occurrence (at 10:50 on November
1). The analytical procedure described here is thus considered
promising for landslide warning message dissemination that helps
to alleviate the loss of lives and property during heavy rainstorms.

Conclusion
A framework for predicting landslide occurrence is developed
based on conducting a slope-instability analysis and a hydrological
model. The hydrological model can generate the spatial distribution of groundwater level if the incoming rainfall is provided (for
example, next 6-h rainfall forecasting). Then the groundwater level
can be substituted into the slope-instability analysis to assess local
hillslope instability for landslide warning. A simple way to fulll
the requirement of soil thickness when conducting the slope-instability analysis is also developed by assuming a linear relationship
between the wetness index and soil thickness. On the basis of
the analysis of historical records from two landslide-prone areas
in Taiwan, it is concluded that more than 50% of unstable grids
in the subwatershed can lead to a massive landslide. The present
study has also showed that the empirical rainfall intensityduration threshold curves are not applicable beyond the geomorphologic and hydrological conditions from which they were
developed. Therefore, the developed physically-based method is
considered promising for shallow landslide forecasting.
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