The Lady Tasting Tea

How Statistics
Revolutionized Science
in the
Twentieth Century


19
clockwork universe
Newtons laws of
motionBoyles laws of gases

40
19
Emperor NapolonPierre
Simon Laplace

19

19 40

the planet Neptune

error function

19
determinism

2
19

paradigm
20

correlation
oddsrisk


randomness
probabilitystatistics

unpredictability
Talmud

probability distribution 2

Aristotle

17 18
BernoullisFermat
de Moivre
Pascalgames of
chance

Laws of large numbers

19

statistics distribution
1971


Lancet

25% 4
10%

probability distribution function

distribution function

20


1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29

Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter

01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29

The Lady Tasting Tea

The Skew Distribution
That Dear Mr. Gosset
Raking Over the Muck Heap
Studies in Crop Variation
The Hundred-Year Flood
Fisher Triumphant
The Dose That Kills
The Bell-Shaped Curve
Testing the Goodness of Fit
Hypothesis Testing
The Confidence Trick
The Bayesian Heresy
The Mozart of Mathematics
The Worms-Eye View
Doing Away With Parameters
When Part is Better than the Whole
Does Smoking Cause Cancer
If You Want the Best Person
Just A Plain Texas Farm Boy
A Genius in the Family
The Pieasso of Statistics
Dealing with Contamination
The Man Who Remade Industry
Advice From the Lady in Black
The March of the Martingales
The Intent to Treat
The Computer Turns Upon Itself
The Idol With Feet of Clay

 1
20 20

20 60
Hugh Smith
HH. Fairfield Smith

Storrsthe University of Connecticut

the University of Pennsylvania

Pfizer Inc.

Groton,

Ronald Aylmer Fisher

1935

The Design of Experiments

2

50%

10
9


20
16
William Harvey

19

Albert Michelson

19

Gregor Mendel

10 20 40

19 20

20
90

90

1921
(the Annals of Applied Biology)

20
90

confounded
90 20

0 100

treatments,
controls

19

17 Johannes Kepler

Laplace
19 90
KKarl PearsonCharles
Darwin
K
19


20 60 K

the U.S. National Burean of Standards

Churchill Eisenhart
University College,London K
K

19 70 K

Karl Marx
Carl Karl

Young Mens and Womens Discussion Club

K
19 80

The Grammar of Science

100
21

K
Francis Galton

Galton
Marks

biometrical

laboratory

regression to the mean

5 7

coefficient of correlation

20
K

gg
g

18 19

1820

bell-shaped curve the normal

1
distribution
K
K

Kskew
distribution

parameters

almost measurements

1. the mean
1

Carl Friedrich Gauss

Abraham de Moivre
Daniel Bernoulli
Stephen Stiglerthe Law of Misonomy

2. the standard deviation

3. symmetry

4. kurtosis

K
K

K
20 30 K

Jerzy NeymanK

1934

1897

20
K RRerhael Weldon
K

survival of the fittest

For
instance is no proof

K
K

Biometrika

25

1910

1921 Julia
Bell

1908

student

1911
K

 20 K
K
K

Oliver
CromwellK

2

K

K
On Jewish Genlile Relationships

the
National Socialists
Nazis
Jewish race
Aryan race

Westminster Abbey

goodness of fit test

10 K EEqon Pearson

20

K E

20
18

PlymouthDartmouth

DNA

DNA


19

K 20
21

3
Guinness Brewing
Company 20

1899
William Sealy Gosset 23

the Danish
telephone company

 1904

Poisson
3
distribution K
1 4

S 1819 SD

 100

K
K1906

K
K

30

1937

Harold
Hotelling 20 30

61 Majory

The Probable Error

of the Meam
1908

Monte Carlo
techniques,

small sample
K 4

10 20
K

Stratton
4
K

K K

Frederick Mosteller
John Tukey
4
t

4
4 4 4

Sz

zt

t 1967
Stanford University
Bradley Efron

hypothesis tests
significance tests

K
K

1912
5

1908

Gonville and
Caius College 22

K
20 3
K
K
K

 K
K

4
1919 29

the Rothamsted Agricultural Experimental

Station

6
Robert Ball

6
Harrow Public School

Public Schools

1909 1912

iterative formulas

statistical mechanics
quantum theory
1913

KK

 K
K
K

the Journal of Agricultural

Science

the Quarterly Journal of

the Royal Meteorologicalthe
Proceedings of the Royal Society of Edinburgh
the Proceedings of the Society of
Psychical Research
K

the Journal of the Royal Statistical

Society

Darwins theory of random

adaptation
1917
the eugenics movement
the Eugenics Review

phenotypes

20

DNA

Johann

19 60

Willian Bateson
K

K
K
K
K

20 20 30

1925
Statistical Methods for
Research Workers
14

3
13
George

Harald Cramr

1945
Mathematical
Methods of Statistics

20 70
Yale University LJSavage

20 70
1919

Transaction


Rothamsted Agricultural
Experimental StationJohn Russell

Super-Phosphate
90

1000

90

53
Studies in
Crop Variation. . The Influence of Rainfall on the
Yield of Wheat at Rothamted

1921 11

variation

variance

1907

1909
K

Harpenden

1950 John Wiley

Contributions to Mathematical Statistics

1923
1924
1929

20

3342 27, 3342

 7 3342
2

123 7.
1 185
15 4

8 12

regression

Broadbalk

1876

1880
1894
1901

1876
1894 1901

1876

1876 the
Education Act
1880

1894
John
Lawes

1901

1923


fertility gradient

ananlysis of variance

analysis of covariance

1922
K

1924

degrees of freedom

TLT. L. Kelley
K

1924

the Philosophical Transactions of the

Royal Society of London


53

1 1924
34

5
Frank
Yates
K

1947 BBC

 10

Leonard
Henry Caleb Tippett
LHC 1902
Imperial College1923

LHC

Shirley Institute

1924
the Galton Biometrical Laboratory
K

17 18


Questions of the Day and of the Fray

Soapy Sam
Bishop
Wiberforce

1860

THT. H. Huxley

extreme values

K
75

Tippetts three asymptotes of the

extreme

USACE

1958 Columbia University

JEmil J. Gumbel

Statistics of Extremes

20 20 30

Brown Shirts

1922
Four Years
8

of Political Murder

1928 Causes of Political

Murder

1933

Richard Vin
Mises

1940

Thomas MannHeinrich Mann

Lion Feuchtwanger
Hiram Bingham IV

1966 Leo Baeck

Institute
8
J
The
Emil J. Gumbel Collection, Political Papers of an Anti-Nazi Scholar in Weimar
and Exile


20

7
The Royal Statistical Society

1934 12 18

20 20

M.S.

1934

F.R.S.

The
Logic of Inductive Inference
MM. Greenwood
16

ALA. L. Bowley

K 3


K
E

E 10

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K

K
K

20 30

70
K

K
K

finite

subset

statistic

estimator

median

consistency

(unbiasedness):

efficiency

bias
biased

27
intent to treat

(the sociology of science

maximum likelihood
estimator, MLE
MLE

regularity conditions

 MLE
MLE
MLE
10

likelihood function

MLE

MLE

MLE

MLE

20
MLE
1966

MLE

10

20 50 CRC. R. Rao

Howard UniversityDavid Blackwell

MLE
Rao-Blackwell
theorem

iterative
algorithms
MLE

David Smith 1923

History of Mathematics

14 Athenian drachma
Venetian ducat
127

rule of false position

Robert Recorde1510-1558
16
1542 The
Grovnd of Artes

Gesse at this woorke as happe doth leade.

By chaunce to truthe you man procede.

And firste woorde by the question,

Although no truthe therein be don.
Suche falsehode is so good a grounde.
That truthe by it will soone be founde.
From many bate to many more,
From to fewe take to fewe also.
With to much ioyne to fewe againe,
To to fewe adde to manye plaine.
In crosswaied multiplye contrary kinde,
All truthe by falsehode for to fynde.
16

60

Nan Laird
James Ware
EM
EM

simulated annealing

kriging
MetropolisMarquardt

K
20 30

 40

8
3

Louisville
Memmphis
AtlantaNew Orleans

Chester Bliss

20 20

A B

probit analysis

probit

50 percent lethal does

LD-50 50%

LD-50 50%

toxicology

16
PAP. A. Paracelsus,1493-1541

LD-50

11

LD50

LD-10

LD-50

11

1953 CvanamidFrank Wilcoxon

JTJ. T. Lichfield

20 60

Science Citation Index

LD-25LD8025%
80%
50%

LD-011%
65000
1%

LD-01

C 1933
DFranklin D.
Roosevelt

the New Deal

Frank Yates

Leningrad Plant
Institute

LD-50

20 50

Riga

20 60

International Statistical Institute, C

30

central
limit theorem
20 30
conjecture

19

method of least squares

Laplaces error function

Gaussian distribution

bell-shaped curve
18

Abraham de Moivre(games
of chance)
150

variate

K
symmetry
(kurtosis)

sufficient estimator

50

Nan Laird(James Ware)

EM

20 20 30
20

20

20 30
William FellerRichard
von Mises(Paul Lvy)
Andrei Kolmogorov

Jarl Waldemar Lindeberg

Harald Cramer

Abraham WaldHerman Hartley

Guido Castelnuovo

Corporate state

anti-intellectualism

University of Salamanca

Miguel de Unamuno

70 Millan
Astray

Francisco FrancoM

Princeton University
Columbia University
J
Emmy Noether
Bryn Mawr College

Aryan

1934


Lindeberg-Lvy Conditions

Wassily
Hoeffding1948
Annals of Mathematical
Statistics

statistic

U-U-statistics

U-

1914

1933

Ludwig Bieberbach

Richard Courant20
theories of real
analysis

Deutsche Mathematik

1940

1944

Harald Geppert

Hermann Schmid

1945 2

1946

Peter Blackett

operational research
operations research

10
20 80
chaos
12
theory

random
determinism

12

Brian DaviesExploring ChaosTheory and Experiment

ReadingMAPerseus Books1999


1963 Edward Lorenz

butterfly effect

20

Henri Poincar

Poincar plots

goodness of fit test

2
chi-square goodness of fit
test
kai

(chi family)
2

K
2

1922

hypothesis testing
significance testing

24

significant

19

20 significant

significant

significant

P
P-value
P
P

P
0.01 P

1929
Proceedings of
the Society for Psychical Research
P

psychical research

20

P 0.01

P 0.2

18

1928 35
J

University of
Kharkov

19 20

Henri Lebesgue 1857-1941

20

20 30

80

the University of Warsaw

1928
EEileen
E K
K
EK

E 1928-1933

E
E K
2

2

E
2

P

2

P

27

1939
1939

contagious distribution

1939

1939

1939

The University of California

PressJ
A Selection of

Early Statistical Papers of J. Neyman

David Salsburg
1974 4 30 J

1974

11
E

P
E

E
E
13

13

E 6
E E
E

power

P
E
null hypothesis

alternative hypothesis

P
P


1956 LJ
Raj Raghu Bahadur

20 50

50%
4
8 2 5 8
4

0.30.
4

500
250
250
P
0.0001.
P P
P
P
P

1872 John Venn

law of large numbers

1921
14
John Maynard Keynes

14

JM

1921
A Treatise on Probability

P
0.05 P
0.05
5%

1955

Statistical
Methods and Scientific Inference
20 60
David Cox

20 80
WW. Edwards Deming
24

1935
bulletin de la Socit Mathmatique de France

statistical decision theory

Erich Lehmann
1959

1981

David
Blackwell Howard
University

Lucien Lecam

Elizabeth Scott

Evelyn Fix

1962

20
50

12
20 80 AIDS
HIV human
immunodeficiency virus

 20 30
15

HIV

15

epidemiology

interval
estimatepoint estimate

5.7
3.7 12.4

12.4
20
3.7
20

20 80 National
Academy of Science

John
Tukey
22

 50

44%
3
44%

41%44%3%
47%44%+3%

1934

On the Two Different

Aspects of the Pepersentative Method

confidence intervals

confidence bounds

GMG. M. Bowley

Isaac Todhunter 19
K
Edgeworth

100%
0

95% 95%

fiducial probability

fiducial distribution

fiducial intervals

95%
95%

95%
95%
13 LJ
Bruno de Finetti

 90% 95%

inverse
probability
18 Reverend
Thomas Bayes

Bayesian heresy

13
8

697 1797
150 1
1 34

17
1268
Doge Rainieri Zeno
30 30 9

9/30
9/29
8/29

JM

18

18 RT

5
the events
before
the events after

A 4 A

CA

16
16

Bayess theorem


Reyes
syndromecase-control
study

95% A
B 5

Pearsonian revolution

20

20
60

20

Annals of Statistics

Bayesian hierarchal model

personal probability

20 70
Frederidck MostellerDavid Wallace

Federalist
1787

James Madison
Alexander HamiltonJohn Jay
70
19
12
17

ifwhen
because
overwhilstasand

30

upon
0.23
3.24 12 11
upon
1.1

17

12

18

in 24 23
in 22 25

hyper-parameter

20
in 20
200
18

18

hyper-hyperparameter

20 80

EM

21
200

personal probability
17
probability

LJ 20 60

70 20
60

the degree of belief

standard
gamble

67%

a
prior set of probabilities

prior probability

a posterior set of probabilities

5050

50%

20 80

prior odds
posterior odds

Bayes factor

12

12

1000001 5050

14
20
NAndrei N.
Kolmogorov
13
1987 85

NAlbert N. Shiryaev 1991

AN

1903
Crimea
Tunoshna

Mariya
Yakovlevna Kolmogorov

Tambov

Vera Yakovlevna

Spring Swallows
5

k k

 14

1920 17

15 16 Novgorod

14

14

20 30

1938

Norbert Wiener

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

1953

1963 Tbilisi
David Kendall

1942
Anna Dmitrievna Egorova
80
70
1971
Dmitri
Mendeleev

Pope John Paul

19
264

Pushkin
1953
50
Pavel Aleksandrov

Hardy
von
Karman
Gdel

Large Soviet Encyclopedia

1941
1954

1.
2.

18


3 5

19 20

18
20

17 18 20

axiomization of
probability theory

stochastic process

N
George Box

event


probability space

1965

1987 10 20

Vestnik statistiki herald1994

Voprosy statistiki
statistical studies

1924

20 30

random variable

accidental magnitude

1956
The Annals of Mathematical
StatisticsSSS. S. Zarkovic

20 30
20
30

NVN. V.
Smirnov
VIV. I. Romanovsky

EE. Slutsky

DTrofim D.
Lysenko

Alexander Ya
Khintchine
Walter Shewhart

20 50 Nikita
Khrushchev

20 90

15
florence Nightingale

Crimean War

pid chart

Ivington

Florence Nightingale David

FN
10
FN 1909 5

10

University CollegeLondon
Jeremy Bentham

Bedford
College

Nan Laird

K
K

Tables of the
Correlation Coefficient
1938

Brunsviga

20 30

16

Henden

Statistical Reserch
Memoirs
FN

K
J

20 20 1940

1933 KFN

K 70
6

Chelsea

KFN

20

20 AAA. A.
Markov
FN

1939

1940 1941

100

30

FN
Combinatorial Chance

combinatorics

D. E.
Barton

1970
Riverside
1977 68

1988 1995
1962 FN

GamesGodsand Gambling

bivariate

16
20 40
Frank Wilcoxon
18
t

18

outlier

t
t
t
P

FN


Biometrics K

Biometrika

1945

BHenry B. Mann
Ohio State University D
D. Ransom Whitney

1940 1944

1947

Wilcoxon testMann-Whitney test

P

19
nonparametric test

19

20 30
NV
N. V. Smirnov

ordered ranks

Herman Chemoff I
I. Richard Savage
ordered statistics
different
underlying distribution
20 60

distribution-free tests

K 1914


1971 Jaroslav
Hjek

the central limit theorem

Lindeberg-Lvy conditions

1974 48

Lederle Labs divison

1960 Florida State
University
1965

1.

2. parametric model

1948

the University of Tasmania

Edwin James George Pitman

3
the Proceedings of Cambridge Philosophical
Society

4 52

EJG 1897
the University of Melbourne

1927

EJG 1926
Hobart

1936

1948

12
1936
30000

2400

1948

philosophers stone

25
the University of
Chicago RRR. R. Bahadur LJ
L. J.
Jimmie
Savage 1956

Bahadur

warrior
savage

23 contaminated
ditributions

17
K

K
K

opportunity sample

20 30
Bombay

Calcutta
Prasanta Chandra Mahalanobis

20 20
K FN

1931
Indian Statistical Institute

SN
S. N. Roy
CRC. R. Rao
RCR. C.
Bose
PKR. K. SenMadan Puri

20
20

10

judgment
sample

the Nielsen
ratings
Nielsen Media Research

specific subclasses

homogeneous groups

2000

random
sample

1970

20 30

20 30

1932 1939

YonkersMargaret
MartinBamard College
the U. S. Bureau of the Budget

1933 6
B
B. Altman department store
48 15


Florence Doty
Katherine Gibbs

Albany
the New York State Division of Placement
and Unemploymentthe office of research
and statistics

Morris Hanson 1933 the
University of Wyomingthe
Census Bureau

Nathan MantelCity College of New York

the National Cancer
Institute
Jerome Cornfield
the Department of Labor

10%
40%the U. S.
Chamber of Commerce
0.5%

1937
1937

300 1500

Cal DedrickFred Stephan

2%

2%
the U. S. Postal Service

the U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

George GallupLouis Bean

21 1940

William
Hurwitz

1953
Sample Survey
Method and TheoryWilliam
Madou

21

20 60

Gallup Poll

the Galloping Bean Poll

gallop Gallup


Hansen Hurwitz

Jerome Cornfield
the National
Institutes of Health

case-control studies

the Framingham Study

1948 Massachusetts

typical town

50

Perils of Pauline

1967

1973 J

Wassily Leontief

20 40

input-output analysis


5*5

12*12

24*24

24*24
7

24*24
Mark

finetune
the
Consumer Price Indexthe
Current Population Surveythe
Census of Manufacturing
10
the intermediate adjustment

PC
Jawaharlal Nehrn

1962

30
E

4
8

72 5 7

18
1958
Centennial Review

Cigarettes, Cancer and

Statistics
Nature
Lung Cancer and Cigarettes?
Cancer and Smoking

Smoking: the Cancer Controversy. Some Attempts

to Assess the Evidence

Mayo Clinic
Joseph Berkson

the British Medical

Associations Journal

1959
5 the National
Cancer Institute,NCIthe American Cancer
Societythe Sloan-Kettering Institute

30
the Tobacco

Institute

1960

inductive
reasoning

Bertrand Russell 20 30

60
20

Alfred North Whitehead

Principia Mathematica

set theory

symbolic logic
20

Aristotelian logic

Socrates

2500

19 20

propositions
TF22

22

TTrue

False

T
FM
maybe

90

andornot
equalsatomic
propositions

A B
A causes B

3
thalidomide

IUD23

23

20 80 VGDthe case

of Marder V. G. D. Searle

95%0.63.0

20 30

pure reason

material implication

A B
B A
13

19 Robert Koch
infective agent

1.
2.
3.

50

small oat-cell carcinoma

5
1959
24Richard Doll

24

5 William Haenszel

EE. Culter
the School of
Hygiene and Public Health, John Hopkins UniversityAbraham
Lilienfeld
the NCIMichael Shimkin
Ernst Wynder

AA. Bradford Hill25

1952
the British Medical Journal

controls
10 1958
5

retrospective studies

artificial sweetenerbladder
cancer

25

Regius Professor of Medicine


20 90 the Yale
Medical SchoolAlvan Feinstein
Ralph Horvitz

Feinstein-Horvitz rules
case-control

prospective study

1958

50 000

50 000
5

dose response

Hammond
Horn 187 783
1958
4

200 000

HFH. F. Dorn 1958

1958 30

VS.

Agent Orange

herbicide

20 70

inductive inference

19
1913 WGeorge W. Snedecor
University of Kentucky

University of Iowa

Iowa State College

Ames

FY
F. Y. Edgeworth

20 30
Statistical
Methods
1940

P 20 70

20 30

Gertrude Cox19001978

7
Methodist Chruch

1931

University of
California

William Cochran

1950

Experimental Designs

Science Citation Index

5

K
Galton Biometrical Laboratory

20

20 90

30%
13%
20

1940
University of North CarolinaFrank
Graham


Sam Wilks 20

Henry CarverUniversity of Michigan

26

North Carolina State

University

10

10

26

18901977

1921 1941 10
1930
Annuals of
Mathematical Statistics1938 Institute of
Mathematical Statistics

20

1946

Duke University

the Census Bureau

the
Bureau of Labor Statisticsthe National
Center for Health Statisticsthe Bureau of
Management and Budget
Janet Norwood 1991

Douglass College

Rutgers University
New JerseyNew Brunswick

 19 Bernard
Norwood 20

1949
Tufts University

1979 1991
1979

New Deal

1963
1970

1978

CPI
0.2

market basket

weight

20
6

Weibull distribution

Rockwell

the University of Wisconsin

Grace Wahba

spline fits

20 60

halothane

Yvonne Bishop

10

log-linear
model

20
20 20 SSamuel S. Wilks
19061964Texas

symbolic logic
set theory

point set topologythe theory of

transfinite numbers

Euclid


order of infinity

the American Mathematical Society

RIR. I. Moore

FEverett F. Linquist

Philosophical Transactions of Royal Society

of Edinburgh

Journal
of Educational Psychology

1933

1939
Institute of Advanced Studies
HMH. M. Wedderburn

finite mathematical groups

nondimensional vector space

Kurt Gdel algebra of
metamathematics

Solomon Lefshefz

algebraic topology27

Luther Eisenhart

Educational Testing Service

27

Albert Einstein


Bell
Telephone Laboratories28

20 40
Office of Naval Research

National Defense Research Council

Statistical Research
Group-Princeton SRG-P

Frederick Mosteller

W
Theodore W. Anderson

Alexander Mood

28

Shewhart chart

Walter Shewwhart
Stigler

UGeorge Udny Yule

Charles
Winsor

proximity
fuses

smart bombs
range finders

Statistical Reaserch Group-Princeton Junior

SRG-Pjrsequential
analysis

20
50
sequential estimation

sequential method

Plato

29

the Journal of the American Statistical Association

Abraham Wald

design
of experiments

20 60
infinite sets
sigma fields

29

20 80

Annals of Statistics
Annals of Probability

20 80

the Institute of Mathematical Statistics

Applied Statistics30

20 50

80

Statistics in
Medicine

30

JRSS-AJRSS-B JRSS-C JRSS-C Applied

Statistics
A
B

80
28

1964 58 50

SSS. S. Wilks
Medal

real world

21
20 25

14

IJI. J. Good
Goodack
17

35


Whitechapel

Goodack

GoodsCameo Corner

IJ 1916 12 9
Isidore

The Virtuous Isidore

Jack
IJ

1993 David Banks

9


10 2
Diophantine

Pells equation

Pythagorean Brotherhood
2 16
10
1993

Hardy 20 2030

12
Aske 31
Hampstead

serve and obey

Smart

31

1448 1689
20
1300

300

19

Jesus College

1941
partial dimension

Bletchley Park

1940


war has begun

12 06 14 09 06 23 11 19 20 01 13
06

12
14

13

empirical Bayes
hierarchal Bayes methods

University of Manchester

classification theory

closeness

1967
Virginia Polytechnic Institute
1994

Blacksturg

Persi Diaconis
1945 1 31 IJ
HE
H. E. Dudeney

Martin Gardner
Scientific American

Mathematical Recreations

14
5

Dia Vernon

60

Persi Warren

Catskill

200

24

14
City College of New York

Washington High School

Introduction to
Probability Theory and Its Application, Vo1.

William Feller
32

1971 26

32

1974

17
24
100

20
50

1920 1930
20 70

projection pursuit

10
100

90

 30-40

500
10 5000
2 5000 2

1950 Richard Bellman

curses of
dimensionality

10 20 10

5000

5000

22
1966

Tukeys one degree of freedom for

interaction
Tukeys fast Fourier
transformTukeys quick test
Tukeys lemma

exploratory data analysis

60

33

1915 New
Bedford

Brown
University

1939
topology

metamathematics

33

S
1938

1944

Fire
Control Research Office

20 P
Pablo Picasso

50

1945

Murray Hill
1987

Budenbom

5060

21

John Cornfield

60 70

Gregor Mendel

Eric Temple Bell

34

35

34

19401950

Men of Mathematics

1819
Numerology

35

Bode's law

aromatic
amines

60
K

exploratory data analysis

histograms

square root

rootgram


whiskers

box plots

stem and leaf plots

bit software

4
4 5

20
time serieslinear
models

robust estimation


2000

23

20 80 S
18 19
1907
Albert Michelson
17
Johannes
Kepler

faulty value

1972

16

Robust Estimates of Location:

Survey and Advances

Princeton Robustness Study

robust

36

error
36

error

FDA

FDA
HF

blunders

George Box
robust

Sir John Gaddum

20 20

residual


1986

lewisite

1943

Imperial Chemicals IndustryICI

1948 1956 ICI

Joan

1978

robust

robustness

the probability of
error
Bradley
Efron 1968
t EJG
E. J. G. Pitman

20 60

1972
contaminated
distribution


20%
lazy eye

Monte
37
Carlo

20 50
10
80%

37

1.
2.

1964

Box-Cox
transformations

 24
1980 NBC

70

NBC
80
WW. Edwards Deming

1939

1947 G
G. Mac Arthur

American way

Ichiro
Ishikawa
JUSE

JUSE

Statistics
Day

1980 NBC

50

50 50
3

3
3 3

1/5 50
3 1% 6 6
10% 50
3
10
13
15

70
zero defect

80

TQM

Out of the Crisis

reliable

special causes
common

environmental

100 000

1920-1930 Walter
ShewhartFrank Youden

1970

Star-Spangled Banner

1900 IowaSioux

University of Wyoming

University of Colorado
Agnes Belle
1927

IllinoisCicero
38
Hawthorne

AT&T

5%

38

Hawthornee effect
20

30

5%
1927
12

2000

30000
1993 12 10
California 93
12 20
11
WThe W. Edwards
Deming Institute

11 J E

A B

25
20
60

American Cyanamid Company

Judith GoldbergJohnson
PharmaceuticalsPaula Norwood
Mavis Carroll
General Foods
Census
Bureau
the Bureau of Labor Statistics
the National Center for Health Statistics

19

Stella Cunliffe
1976 11 12

30 London School of
Economics

the Danish Bacon Company

Roterdam

Bergen-Belsen

the Guinness Brewing Company

3
S
10

1929

1946

Newcastle

queuing theory


3
7

1970
the British Home Office

10 15%

P
0.001

26

65

1886

Lyce Saint Louis

1912 26

33

1919

FOLK
theorem

Lindeberg
20 30

1.

2
martingale

martingale

50%50%
Martingale

Martingale

Martique

1940

1970 the University of

OsloOdd Aalen

20 80 Aarhus
UniversityErik Anderson
University of UtrechtRichard Gill
1

20

Richard Olshen
Lee-Jen Wei

20 80

27
20 80

Rechard Peto

5
Aalen
martingale approach

20 50

M. C. Anderson Hospital
Edmund Gehan

A
A
A A
A A

intert to treat

39
39

1963 Francis Anscombe

P
P

Statistical Methods and Scientific Inference

P

1977 R 23

significance testing

hypothesis testing
P

W
P

evolutionary variation
in operationsEVOP

analysis of
variance

K
method of moments
P

Abraham Wald

sequential analysis

20 60
Baltimore

20 80 90
Donald Rubin

A B

1980

boot-strap

28
Guido Castelnuovo

1915 University of
Rome

1919


Calcolo della probabilit e applicazioni

1927
The
School of Statistics and Actuarial Sciences
20
30

1922 Benito Mussolini

40 7
1935
70

1952

87

40

1939 Bruno de Finetti

the University of Trieste

Corrado GiniIstituto
Centrale Statistica in Rome

20 30

Francesco Paolo Cantelli18751966

18
1916

the Glivenko-Cantelli Lemma41

41

18 Elementsformal mathematics

theorem

lemma


Joseph
Glivenko
Stieltjes integral
1933

empirical distribution function

20

20

20 50 60 70
80

 1982 Bradley
Efron
Bootstrap

1982

resampling

computer-intensive

20 60 the National Bureau of

StandardsJoan Rosenblatt
Texas A&M UniversityEmmanuel

Parzen

kernel density estimation

kernel density-based regression estimation

kernel

bandwidth
1967

John van Ryzin

fuzzy
approximation

nonoptimal
kernel

Bart Kosko

19
Gottfried Wilhelm von Leibniz

Norbert Wiener

the theory of kernel-based regression

20

70

42

20

42

compound-Poisson distribution

stuttering PoissonPoisson-binomial
Fifth Avenue bus distribution

29
1962 Thomas Kuhn

The Structure of Scientific Revolutions

19

19

19
Lambert Adolphe Jacques Qutelet

optimum estimation

1 2

risk analysis

65% 3%
65% 3%
95%

correlation
correlated

underlying assumption

16 Girolamo
Cardano
Ars Magna

16

500

1.
2.
3.

LL. Jonathan Cohen

Pascalian
1989
An Introduction to the
Philosophy of Induction and Probability

Wesleyan University in Middletown Connecticut

Seymour Kyberg

0.0001
10000 1

A B C ABC

the Probable and the

Probable
common law

50%

gate crashers
1000
499 1000

50.1%

1000
1499

model logic

21

95%
95%
95% 1
95%


A
B

null hypothesis
permutation test

The U. S. Supreme Court

 20 80
The U. S. National Academy of Science

Carnegie Mellon University

Stephen Fienbergthe
University of Minnesota Samuel
Krislov
1988

LJ
1954

The Foundations of Statistics

95% 72%

1921


A Treatise on Probability

72% 68%

partial ordering

1921

Hebrew University
Daniel KahnemanAmos Tversky

 20 70 80
P
P. Slovic

Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

5050

90% 75%

1974

Patrick Suppes

improper distributions

queuing theory

21

21

20 70

fuzzy
set theory

20

W. H. Freeman
Don Gecewicz
Eleanor Wedge Vivien Weiss
Patrick Farace Victoria
TomaselliBill PageKaren BarrMeg Kuhta Julia Derosa

1857

KKarl Pearson

1865

G Guido
Castelnuovo

1866

GGregor Mendel

1875

FPFrancesco Paolo
Cantelli

1876

W S
William Sealy Gosset

1886

PPaul Lvy

1890

RAPonald Aylmer
Fisher

1893

PCParasanta
Chandra Mahalanobis

1893

HHarald Cramr

1894

JJerzy Neyman

1895

1895

E S Egon S.
Pearson

1899

CChester Bliss

1900

GMGertrude M.
Cox

1900

WW. Bateson

1902

Biometrika FF. Galton

K
1
RR. Weldon

1903

ANAndrei
Nikolaevich Kolmogorov

1906

SSSamuel S.
Wilks

1908

The probable Error of the

WS
Mean t
students t-test

1909

F N Florence
Nightingale David

1911

FFrancis Galton

1911

The
Grammar of Science

1912

J Jerome
Cornfield

1912

RA

1915

correlation
coefficient

RA

1915

JJohn Tukey

1916

Glivenko-Cantelli lemma FP

1917

LJ

L J L. J.

Jimmie
Savage

1919

Calcotlo
della probabilit

G G.
Castelnuovo

1919

Rothamsted Experimental
Station

RA

1920

Lebesgue
integration

HH. Lebesgue

1921

A Treatise
on Probability

J M J. M.
Keynes

1921

RA
Studies in Crop Variation.

1923

RA
Studies in Crop Variation.

1924

RA
Studies in Crop Variation.

1924

The
Elimination of mental Defect

1925

Statistical Methods for RA

Research Workers

RA

1925

ML Estimation

RA

1926

RA

1927

RA
Studies in Crop Variation.

1928

Neyman
Pearson
hypothesis testing

JES

1928

LHCTippett

RA

1928

RA
Studies in Crop Variation.

1930

Annals of
Mathematical Statistics

HH. Carver

1930

The
Genetical Theory of Natural
Selection

RA

1931

Indian
Statistical Institute

PCP. C.
Mahalanobis

1933

AN

1933

Sankhya

PC

1933

probit analysis
CC.Bliss

1933

S
Princeton

SSSamuel
S. Wilks

1934

confidence
intervals

1934

central limit
theorem

PJ

1934

Leningrad Institute
for Plant Protection

CChester Bliss

1935

martingale theory

1935

The Design of
Experiments

RA

1936

1937

MM. Hansen

FF. Stephan

1937

WS

1938

Statistical Tables for

Biological Agricultural and
Medical Research

RAF
F. Yates

1940

Statistical
Methods

GWG. W.
Snedecor

1941

1945

Mathematical Methods of
H
Statistics

1945

1947

A
sequential estimation theory

1947

MannWhitney

HGDR

1948

EJGE. J.
G. Pitman

1949

WGW. G.
Cochran

1950

WGGM

1952

G
Guido Castelnuovo

1957

RA

1958

Statistics of
Extremes

E J
EJGumbel

1959

rebust

GEPG. E.
P. Box

H Henri
Lebesgue

1959

ELE. L. Lehmann

1960

Combinatorial
Chance

FNDE
D. E. Barton

1962

Savage-de
Finetti

LJB
B. de Finetti

1962

RA

1962

RA

1964

SS

1964

An analysis of
transformations

GEPDR
D. R. Cox

1966

FP

1967

JJ. Hjek

1969

YMMY. M. M.
Bishop

1970

reliability theory
Weibull distribution

NNancy Mann

1970

Games Gods and FN

Gambling

1971

1971

LJ

LJ

1972

D F D. F.
Andrews
PJP.
J. BickelFRF.
R. Hampel
PJP.
J. Huber
WH
W. H. Rogers
JW
J. W. Tukey

1972

PC

1975

Royal Statistical
Society

S V Stella
Cunliffe

1976

GEP

1977

DR

1977

Exploratory Data Analysis J

1978

GM

1979

1979

1979

Bureau of Labor
Statistics

JJanet Norwood

1980

ES

1981

1982

chaos theory

RR. Abraham

CC. Shaw

1983

AA. Tversky

DD. Kahneman

1985

1987

AN

1987

Kernel based
regression

TT. Yamakawa

1989

LJ

LJL. J. Cohen

1990

Spline
Models
for GG. Wahba
Observational Data

1992

OO. Aalen
E
E. Anderson
R
R. Gill

1995

FN

1997

Cochrans
methods
sequential analysis

CC. Jennison

BWB. W.
Turnbull

1999

EM

R A R. A.
Betensky
JCJ.
C. LindseyLM
L. M. Ryan

2000