Professional Documents
Culture Documents
TRANSFORMATION AND
GROWTH IN GEORGIA
Dani Rodrik
August 2016
Key points
New development consensus: sustained growth requires
Public investment
informal
organized
manufacturing
services
informal
organized
manufacturing
services
informal
organized
manufacturing
services
lots of labor
since they are typically skill-intensive
FIRE, business services
poles
since they cannot expand without turning their terms of trade against
themselves
constrained by domestic demand (hence incomes)
expanding employment
(weak) links between innovation and economy-wide
productivity
an innovation focus directs attention to digital, skill-intensive
rules, development banking, special investment zones, with specific form varying
across contexts
Market failures
incomplete information
demonstration effects and learning spillovers from introduction of new products
or new technologies (cost discovery)
scale effects and complementarities
coordination and agglomeration externalities (e.g., clusters, vertical
relationships)
Market failures
incomplete information
demonstration effects and learning spillovers from introduction of new products
or new technologies (cost discovery)
scale effects and complementarities
coordination and agglomeration externalities (e.g., clusters, vertical
relationships)
Market failures
incomplete information
demonstration effects and learning spillovers from introduction of new products
or new technologies (cost discovery)
scale effects and complementarities
coordination and agglomeration externalities (e.g., clusters, vertical
relationships)
20% of GDP)
and the destination of FDI towards non-tradables
Other symptoms of demand-led economy: low domestic
Reported hourly
labor cost per
employee (yearly
indicators, ILO)
Reported hourly
labor cost per
employee (yearly
indicators, ILO)
cost per hour
Commercial bank
rates (for 6 -12
months local
currency loan)
%
Croatia
Armenia
Estonia
China
Latvia
Romani
a
Turkey
Georgia
Comparative costs
3.95
10.7
6.2
1.58
3.94
4.4
5.6
1.26
1.81
4.6
4.2
5.7
2.25
7.9
11.43
5.86
5.00
5.55
16.47
9.21
21.38
15
20
16
15
25
21
20
20
0.062
0.096
0.083
0.111
0.075
0.082
0.06
0.094
2.77
3.51
2.78
4.12
2.86
2.56
3.16
(1=extremely
inefficient to
7=extremely efficient)
5.2
3.6
4.1
4.2
5.2
3.2
3.9
19.3
18.6
Access to Finance
17.7
Electricity
18.2
20
21.6
18.7
Political Inestability
22.1
25
14.9
15
10
5
Small firms
(1-19 Employees)
Medium firms
(20-99 Employees)
Inadequately Educated
workforce
Political Inestability
Political Inestability
Electricity
Access to Finance
Large firms
(100+ Employees)
Note: This table shows the main three issues identified by Georgian firms as main business
environment obstacles, by firm size.
Source: Enterprise Survey Data.
experimentation
informational and scale constraints may bite for some, but not all
firms
instruments
Modern IP: an institutional setup of ongoing dialog and
collaboration with private sector with the aim of
uncovering bottlenecks, generating remedies, and
revising policies over time
less focused on specific policies, more focused on process
principal-agent terms
Takes informational incompleteness and asymmetries as given,
instruments
focusing on learning where the binding constraints lie, rather than on
whether you should use tax breaks, R&D subsidies, credit incentives,
and so on
eliciting information on private sectors willingness to invest subject to
the removal of obstacles (or provision of incentives)
combination of autonomy and embeddedness
discussed previously
patents are the obvious rich-country example
activities
Empirical background:
East Asia 1960-90: both incentives and discipline
Lots of new activities, closely monitored for performance
Latin America under ISI (1950-1980): lots of incentives, but too little
discipline
Lots of new activities, some world-class performers, but many duds
Latin America in the 1990s: lots of discipline, but too little incentives
Too few new activities
by letting losers go
given uncertainty, optimal policy outcomes will necessarily lead to
mistakes
trick is not to avoid mistakes altogether, but to ensure that
mistakes are recognized as such
and entail phasing out of support
recognize losers
bureaucrats?
Need for mechanisms of transparency and accountability
A high-level political principal and champion for IP activities
someone associated with IP activities and who can be held politically
responsible
as with education policy or monetary policy
Mechanisms of transparency
publication of activities
accounting of expenditures
processes that are open to new entrants as well as incumbents