Professional Documents
Culture Documents
1200
1000
800
600
South Asia
400
Sub-Saharan Africa
200
0
1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2010 2011 2012
3
300
65
250
60
200
55
150
50
100
45
50
40
1980 82
84
86
20% band
88
90
92
40% band
94
96
98
00
60% band
02
04
06
80% band
08
10
12
Median
14
1980 82
84
86
20% band
88
90
92
40% band
94
96
98
00
60% band
02
04
06
80% band
08
10
12
Median
14
40%
35%
Latin America
30%
25%
20%
East Asia
15%
10%
South Asia
5%
Sub-Saharan Africa
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0%
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1980
82
84
86
88
90
20% band
92
94
40% band
96
98
60% band
00
02
80% band
04
06
Median
08
10
12
14
Even if unclear about recipe, the necessary utensils to cook the dish:
An effective state, functioning in way that allows economic growth and foster
social sector systems
A politics in which leaders and elites are committed to growth and poverty
reduction
1. Inclusive Growth
10
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1980
82
84
86
20% band
88
90
40% band
92
94
96
60% band
98
00
02
80% band
04
06
Median
08
10
12
Zambia
14
Zimbabwe
Mozambique
Tanzania
Malawi
Zambia
Uganda
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
200
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
300
250
Construction
Mining and Quarrying
200
Electricity
150
Fabricated Metal
Products
100
50
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
13
14
80.00
60.00
40.00
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
0.00
1990
20.00
16
GINI
Stunting (%)
Malawi
71%
0.46
48%
Mozambique
69%
0.69
46%
Tanzania
47%
0.38
35%
Uganda
33%
0.56
34%
Zambia
61%
0.69
40-48%
17
18
50
40
30
20
10
0
1980
82
84
86
20% band
88
90
92
40% band
94
96
60% band
98
00
02
80% band
04
06
Median
08
10
Zambia
12
14
Substantial
improvements in
macroeconomic
stability
In 1987 and 1991, the
worst 10% of countries
had inflation over 100%
In 2014, 90% of
countries had inflation
under 10%.
Zambia had improved
relative to peers but
worsened since 2014
Not due to wrong
monetary policy but
due to absent fiscal
commitment
21
How?
Usual obsession with production subsidies (inputs, fuel) misplaced
Move into higher return crops, commercial agriculture
IF you can get growth in agriculture, it is really good for poverty reduction
but getting growth in agriculture across poor smallholders is hard and likely to
be costly
is it the best way to get the large growth required to bring poverty down? Definitely not
always
Very hard in low population density rural sector
Not an issue of supply but demand
But not quite in ways that provide sufficient (demand) links back to
poorer smallholders
Limited link to poverty reduction requires our attention but smarter than
has been the case over decades in Zambia
25
2. Effective state
27
Some ingredients
Effective state not really about market versus the state,
28
29
Predatory States
States seem to be designed to extract and plunder
from people and the economy
Like a Tiger Fish: living from eating little fish
Failing States
Violent
Eating the scraps; scavenging economies
States or regions in conflict Somalia,
South Sudan,
(Illiberal) State-Builders
A class of countries with leadership with
genuine ambitions in state building and
development
Roaring lion
Often emerged from victory in conflict, stable
with monopoly of violence
Modernist, developmentalist ideology, beyond
redistributive to particular group:
Strong structures, military or political, strong
leaders
Quite effective in delivery of development
Legitimacy seeking through development,
even though no question of their authority
Neo-Patrimonial States
Redistributive state: resources to followers for
loyalty
Consistent with democratic elections
Mix of modern and patrimonial/personalised
ship not seeking to go anywhere but simply
staying afloat (temp alliances, ethnic coalitions
and manipulation of electoral systems)
a bit like a floating hippo: pretty stable, seemingly
too big, unclear what its aim is but potentially
pretty dangerous too
But no interest in change, in transformation but just
reproduction of relative dysfunctionality (even
predatory) behaviours
not effective states, but marginal improvements
possible ---
? Zambia
Choose your animal but it may look like a (relatively benign) hippo;
so dont treat it like a lion nor a predator
Zambia: stable, even politically, with elections, freedom of expression
But state distracted by redistribution of rents
Serving primarily (urban) core group of beneficiaries officials and formal
sector wage earners
general subsidies (fuel, energy, food and inputs) versus targeted to the
poorest
36
a mature state is one that takes only on what it can handle properly,
given its own weaknesses (no hippo in lions clothes)
In Zambia: It is the ideal time to signal in consistent ways
that state will act in committed way to growth and poverty reduction,
but in a coherent and realistic way,
With realism and recognition of its limitations in implementation
38
41