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Environment International
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Article history:
Received 20 April 2012
Accepted 16 November 2012
Available online 23 December 2012
Keywords:
Water quality
Non-parametric density estimators
Uncertainty
Fuzzy inference systems
Monte Carlo simulation
Cauca River (Colombia)
a b s t r a c t
The integration of water quality monitoring variables is essential in environmental decision making. Nowadays,
advanced techniques to manage subjectivity, imprecision, uncertainty, vagueness, and variability are required in
such complex evaluation process. We here propose a probabilistic fuzzy hybrid model to assess river water
quality. Fuzzy logic reasoning has been used to compute a water quality integrative index. By applying a
Monte Carlo technique, based on non-parametric probability distributions, the randomness of model inputs
was estimated. Annual histograms of nine water quality variables were built with monitoring data systematically
collected in the Colombian Cauca River, and probability density estimations using the kernel smoothing method
were applied to t data. Several years were assessed, and river sectors upstream and downstream the city of
Santiago de Cali, a big city with basic wastewater treatment and high industrial activity, were analyzed. The
probabilistic fuzzy water quality index was able to explain the reduction in water quality, as the river receives
a larger number of agriculture, domestic, and industrial efuents. The results of the hybrid model were compared
to traditional water quality indexes. The main advantage of the proposed method is that it considers exible
boundaries between the linguistic qualiers used to dene the water status, being the belongingness of water
quality to the diverse output fuzzy sets or classes provided with percentiles and histograms, which allows
classify better the real water condition. The results of this study show that fuzzy inference systems integrated
to stochastic non-parametric techniques may be used as complementary tools in water quality indexing
methodologies.
2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
Despite the huge numeric datasets collected nowadays, it is well
known that the assessment of water quality still relies heavily upon
subjective judgments and interpretation. Linguistic computations should
be considered together with numerical scoring systems to give appropriate water quality classications (Ocampo-Duque et al., 2006). There is no
doubt that the introduction of intelligent linguistic operations to analyze
databases is producing self-interpretable water quality indicators for a
better assessment. Moreover, to simplify and improve the understanding
and the interpretation of water quality, methodologies for integration, aggregation, and fusion of data must be developed (Sadiq and Tesfamariam,
2007). Data aggregation is not simply a problem of calculations; rather it
is a problem of judgment. Therefore, it deals not only with uncertainty
or variability related to random phenomena, but also with the subjective
uncertainty related to linguistic, subjective, vague and imprecise concepts
faced in decision-making processes. Consequently, Fuzzy Logic and
18
19
RISARALDA
SP19
SP18
CHOCO
QUINDIO
SP17
SP16
SP15
SP14
SP13
CAUCA RIVER
SP12
SP11
SP10
COLOMBIA
SP9
SP8
SP7
SP6
SP5
SP3
SP4
SP2
16.000
32.000
Meters
64.000
SP1
Fig. 1. Map of the studied area: the Cauca River in the Valle Department (Colombia).
variable i. At local level, in the Cauca river basin, the CVC Corporation
also uses the ICAUCA index to evaluate the water status (Torres et al.,
2010). This index is computed according to Eq. (2),
N
wi
ICAICA i1 Ii
20
Table 1
Basic statistics of water quality variables involved in the study.
Indicator, abbr., units
Temperature, T, C
2002
2006
2010
2002
2006
2010
2002
2006
2010
2002
2006
2010
2002
2006
2010
2002
2006
2010
2002
2006
2010
2002
2006
2010
2002
2006
2010
Section I
Section II
Section III
X
Min
Max
X
Min
Max
X
Min
Max
76.09
73.08
72.16
1.51E + 05
1.12E + 04
1.05E + 05
1.55
1.87
8.51
20.4
21.3
22.4
0.062
0.034
0.069
0.30
0.42
0.84
30.8
110.8
79.1
131.33
181.25
163.29
6.93
6.88
7.15
20.71
14.87
18.65
5.13E + 05
2.52E + 04
2.61E + 05
1.12
0.76
3.31
2.8
1.9
0.8
0.008
0.010
0.016
0.20
0.02
0.89
20.0
117.5
95.1
63.25
108.37
145.42
0.47
0.69
0.30
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
17.11
37.99
22.65
0.00E + 00
2.30E + 01
7.30E + 02
0.30
1.09
5.33
15.0
18.0
20.9
0.060
0.021
0.064
0.11
0.40
0.11
3.0
9.0
2.0
68.00
59.00
58.00
5.76
5.30
6.45
83.26
94.42
94.68
2.40E + 06
1.10E + 05
9.30E + 05
5.30
4.02
16.00
24.2
28.8
24.3
0.099
0.050
0.125
1.05
0.44
2.57
75.0
349.0
344.0
310.00
396.00
721.00
7.98
7.62
7.65
27.90
47.95
35.70
5.97E + 07
2.72E + 05
5.35E + 06
5.28
3.96
19.68
23.8
21.1
24.4
0.076
0.099
0.089
0.26
0.57
0.98
67.3
143.1
131.1
172.94
270.09
233.25
6.98
6.82
7.05
25.45
26.16
23.96
1.01E + 08
4.96E + 05
1.62E + 07
2.92
1.51
6.99
2.0
1.2
1.3
0.039
0.047
0.025
0.25
0.10
1.10
53.4
125.4
135.6
51.33
134.88
121.32
0.19
0.32
0.19
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
2.76
7.47
7.02
2.40E + 04
7.50E + 03
9.10E + 04
1.30
1.75
9.82
20.0
18.0
22.2
0.060
0.031
0.064
0.04
0.45
0.11
30.0
18.0
17.0
68.00
129.00
116.00
6.58
5.65
6.68
77.34
85.32
75.30
2.40E + 08
2.40E + 06
9.30E + 07
13.80
7.52
36.90
27.0
23.0
27.1
0.216
0.241
0.157
1.53
0.69
3.29
300.0
404.0
670.0
302.00
811.00
621.00
7.27
7.39
7.32
34.64
32.00
37.22
1.82E + 05
1.79E + 04
3.15E + 05
2.79
3.44
20.66
25.2
24.0
25.3
0.065
0.083
0.084
0.43
0.57
1.39
61.2
201.3
107.4
203.55
338.35
256.71
6.90
7.04
7.36
8.84
7.51
15.68
5.30E + 05
2.98E + 04
7.16E + 05
0.83
1.08
24.20
0.9
1.4
1.5
0.015
0.026
0.045
0.20
0.38
1.40
34.5
231.6
75.4
80.53
156.07
139.37
0.31
0.36
0.33
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20.50
18.20
8.81
2.40E + 03
2.40E + 02
2.30E + 03
1.20
2.05
6.73
22.8
21.5
22.6
0.060
0.053
0.064
0.07
0.40
0.11
29.0
21.0
23.0
136.00
191.00
0.08
6.22
6.40
6.72
55.98
45.90
69.32
2.40E + 06
1.10E + 05
2.40E + 06
4.30
5.77
121.00
26.7
26.3
27.5
0.123
0.142
0.271
0.78
2.01
4.28
185.0
892.0
265.0
406.00
901.00
551.00
7.48
7.54
7.90
Note: X is the median, s is the standard deviation, N is the number of data, Min is the minimum, Max is the maximum. Abr. is the abbreviation of the water quality variable.
Year
where s and c are the parameters shown in Table 2, x is the value of the
input, and is the belongingness (or membership) of the input to the
respective fuzzy set, which is a number between 0 and 1, meaning none
and total membership, respectively. The parameter c represents the
center of the function in the abscissa where the membership value is 1,
and the parameter s denes the width of the function. It is important to
point out that in fuzzy logic reasoning an x value may belong to more
than one fuzzy set. Z-shape functions were used in very low and poor
fuzzy sets, having the following equations to represent them:
9
8
1;
xa
>
>
>
>
xa2
>
>
>
>
a
b
>
>
>
>
; ax
=
< 12
ba
2
2
x; a; b
xb
a
b
>
>
>
xb >
;
>
> 2
>
>
>
>
ba
2
>
>
;
:
0;
xb
21
functions were used in extreme and excellent fuzzy sets, having the
following equations to represent them:
8
>
0; 2
>
>
>
xd
>
>
;
< 2
ed
2
x; a; b
>
xd
>
>
12
;
>
>
ed
>
:
1;
9
xd
>
>
>
d e>
>
>
dx
=
2
>
de
>
xe >
>
>
2
>
;
xe
Table 2
Parameters of the fuzzy inference system.
Indicator*
Units
Low
b
Z-shape
DO
FC
BOD5
T
PO4
NO3
TUR
TS
pH
FWQ
% Sat.
CFU/100 mL
mg/L
C
mg/L
mg/L
NTU
mg/L
0.0
58.9
0.0
15.1
0.0
0.0
3.0
25.6
5.0
Poor
a
Z-shape
0.0
Medium
c
Gaussian
27.8
272.0
2.2
19.9
0.15
3.8
30.7
230.4
6.5
b
38.9
15.0
143.3
1.2
2.6
0.07
1.6
15.0
80.0
0.5
Bad
s
Gaussian
10.5
High
c
Gaussian
31.3
337.5
1.5
18.9
0.14
3.2
33.5
150.6
6.4
c
35.5
15.0
143.3
1.2
2.6
0.07
1.6
15.0
80.0
0.5
Regular
s
Gaussian
11.6
Extreme
c
Gaussian
58.2
675.0
3.5
23.0
0.25
6.1
70.7
300.0
7.5
c
60.0
15.0
143.3
1.2
2.6
0.07
1.6
15.0
80.0
0.5
Good
s
Gaussian
9.4
S-shape
84.1
1013.0
5.2
27.2
0.4
9.5
107.4
450.0
8.5
c
81.4
70.0
1078.0
5.0
25.1
0.3
7.2
88.7
395.0
8.0
Excellent
d
S-shape
68.2
110.0
1284.0
6.9
30.0
0.5
12.0
136.8
642.0
9.5
e
100.0
*DO: dissolved oxygen, FC: fecal coliforms, BOD5: biochemical oxygen demand, T: temperature, PO4: phosphates, NO3: nitrates, TUR: turbidity, TS: total solids, FWQ: Fuzzy water
quality index. a, b, s, c, d, and e, are the parameters to build the membership functions according to Eqs. (3)(5).
22
Fig. 2. Conceptual integration of non-parametric Monte Carlo modeling with a Fuzzy Inference System.
although the improvements are not signicant. Rules and ranges were
tested with several environmental experts from the CVC Corporation
and Academia. Some examples of rules are shown:
AB x min A x; B x
Union; OR : AB x max A x; B x
Vector inputs are fuzzied to enter to the inference engine using the
membership functions. When there are two antecedents, fuzzy logic operations are applied to give a degree of support for these rules. In rules
with one antecedent, their degree of support is the degree of membership. The degree of support for the entire rule is used to shape the output
fuzzy set. The consequent of a fuzzy rule assigns an entire fuzzy set to the
Fig. 3. Propagation of uncertainty when a probabilistic variable is introduced to a fuzzy inference system.
FWQ
zzdz
zdz
23
rather than a standard index for use anywhere. Because of the high random uncertainty in water quality variables, due to experimental measurement, human errors, and propagation of error due to the methods
used to measure the water quality variable, we propose treating the
FIS inputs as stochastic. The conceptual model is depicted in Fig. 2.
The algorithm for Monte Carlo simulation assumes each computation with the FIS as deterministic. A vector with water quality variables is randomly selected according to its probability distribution
over the domain. Then the corresponding water quality score to
that vector is computed with the FIS. The computation is carried out
a consistent number of times to cover the entire range of likely inputs,
and to build a well-dened histogram of the water quality scores.
Random numbers were generated with the inverse transform method. The quantity of random numbers was set at 10 000 in all cases.
Fig. 3 outlines the propagation of uncertainty when a probabilistic
variable is introduced to a FIS. A, and C, are fuzzy sets. Arrows point
out the information ow. Suppose a measured water quality variable
X, continuous, positive, and random, with probability density function, f(X) ~ PDF, as shown in Fig. 3, to be introduced to the fuzzy system. Let X , Q1, and Q3 be the median, the 25th and 75th percentiles
of the data, respectively. When X is introduced to the fuzzy system,
the probabilistic or random uncertainty is transformed into fuzzy
uncertainty. First, X is fuzzied to take the membership value A(X ).
A( X ) is the degree of membership of X to the set A. Then, A( X ) is
transformed to C(y) according to the rule:
If X is A then y is C:
10
Fig. 4. Examples of optimized tting of non-parametric versus parametric distributions of two input variables. (Data of 2009, Section II).
24
Fig. 5. Box-and-Whisker plots for assessed water quality with the stochastic fuzzy
water quality index (SFWQI) for different years and the three river sections. Reported
values are the medians.
density function. Thus, the shapes of the output fuzzy sets vary with
each run as a random input is chosen. Propagation of uncertainty is
somewhat expressed in this context as the transformation of probabilistic uncertainty into fuzzy uncertainty through the every membership
function and rule evaluation. Such propagation is graphically represented as the uncertainty in the area of the output fuzzy set (U) when the
random input takes a number between Q1 and Q3. To compute such uncertainty, deterministic computations of the FWQ index are performed
depending on the probability of water quality inputs randomly chosen
within the statistic range of the water quality variables. Therefore, two
layers of uncertainty may clearly be identied. The fuzzy uncertainty
is self-contained in the FWQ number as long as probabilistic uncertainty
is observed through the output FWQ histogram.
parameters of the assumed distribution from the data. This is the most
common way to apply the PDF in environmental uncertainty analysis,
with multiple tools available. The main disadvantage of the parametric
approach is the lack of exibility. Each parametric family of distributions imposes restrictions on the shapes that f(x) may have. For example, the density function of the normal distribution is symmetrical and
bell-shaped, and therefore, it is unsuitable for representing skewed
densities or bimodal densities, which may appear in real water quality
datasets. The idea of the non-parametric approach is to avoid restrictive
assumptions about the form of f(x), and to estimate it directly from the
water quality monitoring data (Qin et al., 2011). It could be especially
useful if data are limited. A well-known non-parametric estimator of
the PDF is the histogram, when classes are properly well dened. Likewise, the kernel density estimation method is a widely used method for
density estimation.
The most attractive feature of non-parametric kernel density estimation is that it directly makes use of sample data without a need of
estimating characteristic parameters in a theoretical distribution. In
other words, there is no error caused by assumption of a theoretical
distribution for data and by mismatch between estimated parameters
and actual behaviors of water quality indicators. Let X1, X2,, Xn
denote n water quality variable samples. The real probability density
function f(x) of a water quality variable can be estimated by the
following density function:
n
1 X
xX i
f^n x
K
nh i1
h
P abXbb f xdx:
11
The parametric approach for estimating f(x) is to assume some parametric family of probability distributions, and then to estimate the
12
!
xX i
1
xX i 2
p exp
:
h
2h2
2
13
The determination of the bandwidth h is crucial for accurate estimation of water quality variable distributions. There are many ways
to estimate an optimal bandwidth (hopt). An approximation, known
as the Silverman's rule (Silverman, 1998) has been proposed:
hopt
4 1=5
3n
where min s;
14
IQR
20:6745
n
2
1
, s2 n1
i1 xi x , and IQR is the
Table 3
Classication of the water quality according to the membership degree of the fuzzy sets.
Year
2002
2006
2008
2009
2010
Section
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
Median
Bad
Regular
Good
Bad
Regular
Good
Bad
Regular
Good
0.344
0.408
0.444
0.336
0.431
0.459
0.322
0.379
0.395
0.348
0.364
0.419
0.379
0.376
0.534
0.741
0.678
0.642
0.750
0.654
0.628
0.766
0.707
0.691
0.737
0.722
0.667
0.707
0.709
0.553
0.005
0.003
0.002
0.005
0.003
0.002
0.006
0.004
0.035
0.005
0.004
0.003
0.004
0.004
0.001
0.310
0.355
0.406
0.302
0.382
0.418
0.292
0.347
0.358
0.326
0.331
0.377
0.343
0.315
0.413
0.777
0.730
0.679
0.786
0.703
0.667
0.797
0.739
0.727
0.760
0.755
0.708
0.743
0.745
0.672
0.006
0.005
0.003
0.007
0.004
0.003
0.007
0.005
0.005
0.006
0.005
0.004
0.005
0.005
0.006
0.266
0.317
0.360
0.268
0.333
0.369
0.268
0.314
0.323
0.301
0.377
0.339
0.314
0.313
0.354
0.823
0.769
0.725
0.822
0.753
0.716
0.822
0.773
0.764
0.787
0.708
0.747
0.773
0.775
0.732
0.009
0.006
0.004
0.009
0.005
0.004
0.009
0.088
0.006
0.007
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.006
0.005
25
2010:
Water Quality
600
700
600
500
800
500
400
600
Frequency
1000
Frequency
Frequency
Water Quality
Water Quality
1200
400
300
400
300
200
200
200
100
100
0
47.25
49.50
51.75
54.00
56.25
58.50
60.75
63.00
48
49
50
2010 Section I
51
52
53
54
45.6
46.8
48.0
2010 Section II
49.2
50.4
51.6
52.8
54.0
2009:
Water Quality
Water Quality
Water Quality
700
500
900
600
800
400
700
400
300
Frequency
Frequency
Frequency
500
300
200
600
500
400
300
200
200
100
100
100
0
48.8
49.6
50.4
51.2
52.0
52.8
53.6
0
46.2
54.4
47.3
48.4
2009 Section I
49.5
50.6
51.7
52.8
0
44.8
53.9
46.2
47.6
2009 Section II
49.0
50.4
51.8
53.2
2008:
Water Quality
Water Quality
Water Quality
800
600
400
700
600
400
300
300
Frequency
Frequency
Frequency
500
200
500
400
300
200
200
100
100
100
0
0
49.6
50.4
51.2
52.0
52.8
2008 Section I
53.6
54.4
0
47.7
48.6
49.5
50.4
51.3
52.2
53.1
54.0
2008 Section II
45.6
46.8
48.0
49.2
50.4
51.6
52.8
54.0
Fig. 6. Non parametric distributions of the stochastic fuzzy water quality index in the Cauca River for some selected years.
26
Table 4
Comparison of the fuzzy water quality index versus other indexes after Monte Carlo simulations (medians are provided). Membership values in linguistic scores, computed with
fuzzy modeling, are provided.
Index
Stochastic NSF_WQI
Stochastic ICAUCA
Stochastic FWQ
Year
Section I
Section II
Section III
Numeric score
Linguistic score
Numeric score
Linguistic score
Numeric score
Linguistic score
2002
2006
2008
2009
2010
2002
2006
2008
2009
2010
2002
63
56
58
61
56
42.65
63.74
63.03
74.96
40.49
51.58
48
45
50
49
40
27.49
54.95
28.80
30.64
26.70
50.59
51.81
2008
51.98
2009
51.18
2010
50.85
Bad
Bad
Bad
Bad
Bad
Bad
Good
Bad
Bad
Bad
0.35 bad
0.73 regular
0.38 bad
0.70 regular
0.34 bad
0.73 Regular
0.33 bad
0.75 regular
0.32 bad
0.75 regular
49
47
46
49
41
30.09
44.03
42.54
55.26
26.77
49.74
2006
Regular
Regular
Regular
Regular
Regular
Regular
Good
Good
Good
Regular
0.31 bad
0.77 regular
0.30 bad
0.78 regular
0.29 bad
0.79 regular
0.32 bad
0.76 regular
0.34 bad
0.74 regular
Bad
Bad
Bad
Bad
Bad
Bad
Regular
Regular
Good
Bad
0.40 bad
0.67 regular
0.41 bad
0.66 regular
0.35 bad
0.72 regular
0.37 bad
0.70 regular
0.41 bad
0.67 regular
50.00
50.78
51.05
50.89
49.47
50.54
50.10
49.45
belongingness to diverse possible classications. In all cases, the stochastic FWQ index outputs have classied water quality in the studied
area as partially bad and partially regular. Lower possibility has the
water quality to belong to the good class (in Table 3, observe that
b 0.01). As above stated, the belongingness to bad water quality sets
increased downstream from the river Section I to Section III. It agrees
with the results from the NSF_WQI. Consequently, the belongingness
to the regular class decreases downstream.
Water quality indexes based on fuzzy systems have been recently
proposed in scientic literature with relative success. The fuzzy frame
clearly improves the conceptual design of the indexes, because they
are computed with expert rules and sets to provide nal numerical/
linguistic scores which include a convenient treatment of linguistic
uncertainty and subjectivity. However, the computation of water
quality index scores is clearly deterministic even within the fuzzy
method. A vector of water quality variables is given to the FIS, and
a unique water quality score is obtained. The challenge now is how
to deal with computation in non-deterministic real world scenarios.
Water quality variables collected in rivers are essentially stochastic,
and density probability functions may easily be computed. Then, the
key question is how to perform computations of water quality indexes
when sufcient data have been collected, and the statistics are dependable. Currently, the easiest way to deal with stochastic computations is
through Monte Carlo methods. Moreover, fuzzy alpha-cuts to deal with
uncertainty in inputs could also be considered (Kumar et al., 2009). In
this paper, we used Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the fuzzy
index to analyze historic and geographic trends in water quality. The
method was powerful because provided better water quality classication, and we observed graphically the consistency in fuzzy classication.
However, the use of combined probabilistic and fuzzy methods is still
under development, and a generalized theory of uncertainty is required
(Zadeh, 2005). Moreover, mathematical foundations about propagation
of probabilistic uncertainty through fuzzy systems may also require further research. Finally, we found that the method was powerful not only
by providing consistent histograms of defuzzied water quality scores
but also delivering the membership values to more than one water
quality class. The value of the membership function of the output
fuzzy sets resulted highly sensitive to input conditions. With this tool,
the decision makers may be able to relax the boundaries between two
or more likely water quality classes. Moreover, a consistent classication in water quality after stochastic simulations was observed which
showed that the fuzzy index was stable in providing appropriate classication. Finally, the use of fuzzy systems avoids using crisp values to
water quality classication which is the most important fact in applying
this methodology. With the Monte Carlo and FIS approach, the strongly
subjective character of the equivalence functions of traditional water
quality indexes is avoided, and the assessment is closer to human reasoning, becoming the technique very useful under many similar environmental assessment problems.
4. Conclusion
We have implemented stochastic simulation to a fuzzy water
quality index in order to improve the water quality assessment provided with deterministic indexes. The hybrid stochastic fuzzy method
combined the benets of Mont Carlo simulations with the advantages
of fuzzy inference. The proposed method updated the design of indexing
techniques to integrate water quality variables available to date. Nonparametric kernel density estimators resulted appropriate tools to
build empirical probability density functions from raw data since normal
and other parametric distributions did not t well the real data, especially
when number of data was limited. The Monte Carlo simulation improved
the results from point estimate of fuzzy water quality indexes since the
dispersion of the nal indexes was estimated. The water quality classication preserved the linguistic uncertainty of the subjective index and the
randomness from real measurements. The main advantage of the
27
proposed method is that membership to two or more classes is also possible which gives to decision makers a better conceptual assessment.
When the developed method was applied to the Cauca River, the results
for several years showed that water quality was possibly regular with a
membership degree of approximately 0.7, and possibly bad with a
membership degree of approximately 0.4. The index also predicted that
water quality decreased downstream. The results have complex origins,
since the river is plainly affected by the presence of towns and cities
without adequate treatment for wastewater. We observed that the environmental impact was not reduced downstream. Intense sugarcane agriculture and some industrial plants could also be responsible of surface
water pollution. An intensive environmental protection program from
regional and national government is suggested if ecosystem restoration
and biodiversity conservation is desired in the area.
Acknowledgments
The authors thank the Agencia Espaola de Cooperacin Internacional
para el Desarrollo (AECID) for nancial support (Projects D/026977/09,
and D/031370/10). We also thank the CVC Corporation for providing
water quality monitoring data.
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