QS025

PROBABILITY

8.0 PROBABILITY

LECTU
RE

Before

During

READ the

note given
EVEN if you
do NOT
UNDERSTAND
.

30
TOPIC 8

FOCUS in
class.
WRITE
whatever
you feel is
IMPORTANT
when the
lecturer
explains.

After
RECALL
what you
have
learned.
DO
exercises
or tutorial
questions

30

60
LEARNING OUTCOMES
At the end of this topic, students should
1

QS025
PROBABILITY

be able to :

8.1
Probab
ility

a) understand the concept of

experiments, outcomes, events, sample
space and random selections.
b) state the basic laws of probability.
c) find the probability of an event.
d) determine the probabilities of the
intersections and union of two events.
e) determine the conditional probability
and identify independent events.
f) use of Venn diagrams, tree diagrams
and table of outcomes to solve
probability problems.

MIND MAP
2

QS025
PROBABILITY

8.1 PROBABILITY
8.1 (a)
3

understand the
concept of
experiments,
outcomes, events,
sample space and
random selections.

QS025
PROBABILITY

(A)

Experiments

A process that, when performed, results in one and only one of many observations.
For example

(B)

Tossing a coin once

Tossing a coin twice
Rolling a die once
Taking a driving test

Outcomes
The outcomes of the experiment are the observations made.

(C)

Sample Space
The sample space is the collection of all the outcomes and is denoted by S.

Experiment
Tossing a coin
once
Tossing a coin
twice
Rolling a dice
once
Taking a driving
test

Outcomes

Sample Space

Head or Tail

S = {Head, Tail}

HH, TT, HT, TH

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Pass, Fail

S = { HH, TT, HT,

TH}
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
6}
S = {Pass, Fail}
4

QS025
PROBABILITY

The sample space can be represented in set notation, Venn diagram, tree diagram and Cartesian graph.

8.1
(b)

state the basic laws of probability.

Since A S

0 P(A) 1

If P(A) = 1, this means that the event A is absolutely certain.

For the experiment of tossing a coin twice,
(HH) + P(HT) + P(TH) + P(TT) =

1 1 1 11
4 4 4 4

P
If P(A) = 0, this means that the event A is absolutely impossible.
(A)

Events

8.1
(c)

find the probability of an event.

A collection of one or more of the outcomes of an experiment, or in other words, an event is a subset of the sample
space. For example, if a coin is tossed twice, let E be the event that at least one head appears, hence the event E
is given by E = {HH ,HT ,TT}

QS025
PROBABILITY

(B)

Probability
The probability of an event A occur is denoted by P(A) where
Number of possible outcomes in A
Total
number
of outcomes in the sample space, S
P(A) =
n(A)
()
= nS
Example 1
a)

A dice is tossed. What is the probability of getting

a number bigger than 3.
b) Two dice are tossed. What is the probability that
i. both dice give the same numbers
ii. both dice give the odd numbers
Solution:

QS025
PROBABILITY

(A)

Additional Probability Rules

If A and B are two events,

1.

P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B)

2.

P(A) = 1 P(A)

8.1
(d)

determine the probabilities of the

intersections and union of two events.

1/

P( A B) =
7

QS025
PROBABILITY

(B)

Mutually Exclusive Events

i)Two events A and B are said to be mutually exclusive if
A B = , then
P(A B) = 0 and P(A B) = P(A) + P(B)
ii)

If events A1, A2, A3, ,An are mutually exclusive, then

P(A1 A2 A3 An) = P(A1) + P(A2) + P(A3) + + P(An)

S
A

P(A B) = 0

QS025
PROBABILITY

Example 3

Example 2

4 letters are chosen randomly from the word

COMPUTER. Find the probability

If we consider 100 form six students, of whom 20 are

studying maths, 15 are studying chemistry and eight
are studying both maths and chemistry. If a
students is chosen randomly, find probability that the
student studies

a) all the four letters chosen are consonant

b) the letter C must be chosen
c) the letters M and P must be chosen simultaneously
Solution:

a) Chemistry
c) both Mathematics and
Mathematics or
Chemistry
Solution:

b) Mathematics
d)
either
Chemistry

QS025
PROBABILITY

Example 4
A box contains 4 blue marbles, 5 white marbles and 6
yellow marbles. A marble is drawn randomly from the
box. Find the probability that the marble selected is
a) blue
b) blue or yellow
If two marbles are drawn randomly, find the probability
that
c)
d)

both selected marbles are blue

the selected marbles are blue and yellow

Solution:

10

QS025
PROBABILITY

11

QS025
PROBABILITY

Example 5
Three students are taking part in mathematics contest.
The probability that they become the champion are
0.15, 0.27 and 0.38 respectively.
a) What is the probability that one of them become
champion?
b) What is the probability that none of them become
champion?
Solution:
Example 6
A Mathematics puzzle is given to three students,
Azianty, Balqis and Chin Shi Tying. From the past
experience, known that the probabilities Azianty,
Balkis and Chin Shi Tying will get the correct solutions
are 0.65 , 0.6 and 0.55 respectively.
If three of them attempt to solve the puzzle without
consulting each other, find the probability that:
a) the puzzle will be solved correctly by all of them
b) only one of them will get the correct solution
Solution:

12

QS025
PROBABILITY

8.1
(e)
(A)

determine the conditional probability and

identify independent events.

Conditional Events
a

When an event happens is considered with the condition

conditional event.

that another event has occurred, then the event is

For example,
i)

the event that a girl is chosen knowing that the

student wears spectacles.

ii)
two balls are taken from a box containing several red
event that getting the second ball depends on the first ball.

(B)

and blue balls without replacement. The

Conditional Probability

If
(C)

A and B are 2 events, the conditional probability of A given B has already occurred is written as

P A B

Independent events

If A and B are independent events, it means that the

outcome of the
other, then

outcome of one event does not affect the

P A B P A P B

we know that , from conditional probability

13

QS025
PROBABILITY
P A B

P B A

P A B
P B

P A B
P A

P A P B
P B
P B P A

P A B P A P B

P A B P A
and
P B A P B

If A and B are two independent events then,

P A B P A P B P A B
P A P B P A P B

Note

14

P A

P A

P B

QS025
PROBABILITY

If A and B are independent events, then (A and B' ),

(A' and B) and (A' and B' ) are INDEPENDENT EVENTS TOO
i.e. P(A' B' ) = P(A')

P(B' )

Example
Identify the independent event in the following random experiment. A box containing 2 red balls and 2 green
balls. 2 balls are taken from the box:

i) with replacement

___________________

ii) without replacement

15

QS025
PROBABILITY

_____________________

Example 7
In a college, 12% of the students are left-handed, 15%
of the students are curly haired and 3% are both lefthanded and curly haired.
a) Given that a student curly haired, find the
probability that the student is left-handed.
b) What is the probability that a left-handed student
also curly haired?
Solution:

16

QS025
PROBABILITY

Example 8
The event A and B are such that
1
1
5
P ( A) , P( B ) , P( A B )
4
3
12 Find

a)

P( A B)

P ( A B ')

b)
d)

P ( B A)

P ( A B ')

Solution:

17

QS025
PROBABILITY

Example 9
Events R and S are events such that
P(R)

3
5

, P(S R)

2
3 and

P(S R) '

7
25

(i) Find
a) P ( S R )

b) P ( S )

c)

_
P( S R)

(ii) Determine whether R and S are

a)
b) independent

mutually exclusive

Solution:
18

QS025
PROBABILITY

19

QS025
PROBABILITY

Example 10
A, B and C are three events such that A and B are
independent whereas A and C are mutually exclusive.
Given P(A) = 0.4 and
P(B) = 0.2 , P(C) = 0.3 and P(B C) = 0.1. Find
a) P(A B)
b) P(C | B)
c) P(C | A)
Solution:

20

QS025
PROBABILITY

THINK THROUGH

What are the difference between mutually exclusive and independent events?
Study carefully the following examples. Identify the events A and B are mutually exclusive or independent events.
(a) When tossing a coin, the probability of getting a head or a tail is ________________________________ to each other.

(a) When tossing two coins, the probability of getting a head for one of the coin and the probability of getting a tail
for the other coin are _________________________ to each other.

21

QS025
PROBABILITY

(A)

Venn diagrams

8.1
(f)

De Morgan Rule
1.

P(A B) = P(A B)

2.

P(A B) = P(A B)

3.

P(A B) = P(A B) P(B) = P(A) P(A B)

Note that

The union of A and B, A B : either A or B or both occur

The intersection of A and B, A B : both A and B occur

The complement of A, A (or A ) : not A occur

A B : A occur but B does not occur

Example 11
22

use of Venn diagrams, tree diagrams and

table of outcomes to solve probability
problems.

QS025
PROBABILITY

1
5
3
Given A and B are 2 events where P(A) = , P(B) = 9
and
1

P(A B) = 6 . Find
a) P(A B)
P(A B)
c) P(A B)
P(A B)

b)
d)

Solution:

23

QS025
PROBABILITY

Example 1 2
24

QS025
PROBABILITY

A and B are two events such that

and
a)

P A B

P A B

P A

1
1
P B
3,
4

1
2 . Find
b)

P A B

c)

P B A

d)

P A B
e) the probability that exactly one of A or B will occur.
Solution:

25

QS025
PROBABILITY

Example 13
26

QS025
PROBABILITY

There are 60 students in a certain college, 27 of them

are taking Mathematics, 20 are taking Biology and 22
are taking neither Mathematics nor Biology
a) Find the probability that a randomly selected
student takes
i) both Mathematics and Biology.
ii) Mathematics only.
b) A student is selected at random.
Determine
whether the event
taking Mathematics is
statistically independent of the event taking
Biology.
Solution:

27

QS025
PROBABILITY

(B)

Tree diagrams

A tree diagram consists of a number of branches that illustrate all the possible outcomes of a sequence of
experiments or events where each event can occur in a finite numbers of ways.
28

QS025
PROBABILITY

Note

To find the probabilities , you must multiply along the branches and add between the branches.
Example 14
A bag consists of 5 yellow marbles and 3 red marbles.
What is the probability that the marbles are of
a) different colours
29

QS025
PROBABILITY

b) same colour
if two marbles are selected randomly
replacement and without replacement?

with

Solution:

30

QS025
PROBABILITY

Example 15
A particular area experiences rainfall for 30% of the
30days in November Research findings show that the
probability of road accidents is 0.7 on rainy days and
0.2 on clear days.
a)

Find probability of road accident occurs.

31

QS025
PROBABILITY

b)

If a road accident occur, what is the probability

it is a rainy day?

Solution:

32

QS025
PROBABILITY

Example 16
A statistician has two coins, one of which is fair, while
the other is doubled-headed. She choose one coin at
random and tosses it. The events A and B are defined
as follow:
A1 : The fair coin is chosen
A2

: The doubled-headed coin is chosen

B : A head is obtained

Determined the values of

P( B A1 )

and

P ( B A2 )

33

QS025
PROBABILITY

Solution:

34

QS025
PROBABILITY

Example 17
Box A contains 5 white balls and 3 black balls whereas
box B contains 4 white balls and 7 black balls. One ball
is withdrawn from box A to put into box B. Then a ball
is withdrawn from box B. The events
W1 , B1 , W2 and B2 are defined as below
W1 , a white ball is withdrawn from A
B1 , a black ball is withdrawn from A
W2 , a white ball is withdrawn from B
B2 , a black ball is withdrawn from B
Find:
a) P(W1 )
d)

P( B2 )

b) P ( B1 )

c) P ( B2 | B1 )

e) P ( B1 | B2 )

35

QS025
PROBABILITY

Solution:

Example 18
36

QS025
PROBABILITY

The probability that Hasha is late for Mathematics

lecture on any day is 0.15 and is independent of
whether he was late on the previous day. Find the
probability that he
a) is late on Monday and Friday
b) arrives on time on one of these days
Solution:

(C)

Table

Example 19
37

QS025
PROBABILITY

A survey is conducted on a group of workers

comprising production operators, administrative
officers and security guards. The survey is to
determine the total working hours in a week.

< 40
hours
50 70
hours
> 70
hours
Total

Productio
n
operator

Administrati
ve officer

Securit
y
guard

Total

63

21

88

46

14

10

70

87

17

112

196

43

31

One of the workers in the survey is randomly selected.

Based on the information provided, calculate the
probability
a) the workers being a production operator.
b) the workers who work between 50 70 hours.
c) the workers is an administrative officer and
working greater than 70 hours.
d) the workers being a security guard working less
than 40 hours.
38

QS025
PROBABILITY

Solution:

39

QS025
PROBABILITY

Example 20
30 Mathematics professors out of 100 who are
examined were found to be overweight (W). Ten of
them had high blood pressure (H). Only four of the
professors who were not overweight had high blood
pressure.
Find the probability that a Mathematics professor will
not have high blood pressure if he is not overweight.
Solution:

40

QS025
PROBABILITY

Example 21
A card is chosen at random from a set of twenty-five
cards numbered from 1 to 25. What is the probability
that the card chosen is a multiple of 4, given that it is
greater than 15?
Solution:

Example 22
There are 50 boys and 50 girls in a class. Each student
is allowed to choose only one course, either Statistic
or Mathematics. In their final examinations, 60
41

QS025
PROBABILITY

students passed Mathematics where 2/3 are girls, 40

students passed Statistics where 3/4 are boys. A
student is selected randomly from the class.
a) What is the probability that a student is a boy or
pass in
Mathematics.
b) If the student is a girl, what is the probability she
pass statistics.
c) Assuming a student's gender is not considered in
choosing a course, find the probability that a
student is a girl or pass statistic.
Solution:

42