NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll

Embargoed for release Tuesday, October 4, 2016 at 6:00AM ET

The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll tracks voter preferences and attitudes on a weekly basis throughout
the 2016 election cycle. Results are released every Tuesday at 6:00AM. Results released prior to September 20 were among
registered voters. Results among likely voters are denoted with an asterisk below.
Results for the week of September 26, 2016 through October 2, 2016 are among a national sample of 26,925 likely voters (+/- 1.0%),
7,727 likely Republican voters (+/-1.5%) and 9,373 likely Democratic voters (+/-1.4%). Complete error estimates can be found in the
methodology section below.

TOPLINE RESULTS
Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now?

9/2610/2*
9/199/25*
9/129/18*
9/59/11
8/299/4
8/228/28
8/158/21
8/88/14
8/18/7
7/257/31
7/18--7/24
7/117/17
7/47/10
6/277/3
6/206/26
6/136/19
6/66/12
5/306/5
5/235/29
5/16 5/22
5/9 5/15
5/2 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/44/10
3/28 4/3
3/21 3/27
3/14 3/20
3/7 3/13
2/29 3/6
2/22 2/28
2/15 2/21
2/8 2/14
2/1 2/7
1/25 1/31
1/18 1/24
1/11 1/17
1/4 1/10

Foreign
Policy
4
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
4
4
4
4
5
5
4
5
5
4
5
5

The
environment
8
8
9
9
9
9
8
7
8
7
7
7
8
8
8
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
9
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
8
8
8

Terrorism
19
19
15
14
14
16
17
18
20
23
26
23
22
21
21
23
12
12
13
13
12
12
14
14
16
17
19
18
12
13
13
14
16
16
15
17
19
21
23

Immigration
7
8
8
10
7
7
8
7
6
7
7
8
8
9
9
7
7
7
7
6
7
7
7
8
7
8
7
7
7
8
7
7
7
8
7
8
7
8
8

Health
care
14
14
17
16
17
16
16
15
14
13
13
12
13
13
15
14
17
17
15
16
16
15
16
15
15
14
15
13
15
16
16
16
15
14
16
13
15
13
13

Jobs and the

Economy
33
30
32
32
32
33
32
33
32
30
28
29
29
31
28
29
37
35
36
36
35
36
33
32
32
31
32
32
36
35
35
34
33
34
32
32
33
29
28

Education
8
9
9
10
10
10
9
10
9
8
8
8
9
8
9
9
10
11
10
12
11
12
11
11
11
11
10
10
11
10
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
8

Other
6
6
5
5
6
5
6
5
6
6
7
8
7
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
6
5
6
5
5
5
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
5

No
answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

12/28-1/3

23

14

27

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
9/2610/2*
9/199/25*
9/129/18*
9/59/11
8/299/4
8/228/28
8/158/21
8/88/14
8/18/7
7/257/31
7/187/24
7/117/17
7/47/10
6/277/3
6/206/26
6/136/19
6/66/12
5/306/5
5/235/29
5/16 5/22
5/9 5/15
5/25/8
4/255/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/44/10
3/28 4/3
3/21 3/27
3/14 3/20
3/7 3/13
2/29 3/6
2/22 2/28
2/15 2/21
2/8 2/14
2/1 2/7
1/25 1/31
1/18 1/24
1/11 1/17
1/4 1/10
12/28 1/3

Strongly approve
32
33
32
29
29
30
31
30
32
32
28
27
27
28
30
30
29
27
27
27
28
28
27
26
28
27
28
27
27
27
27
27
26
26
27
25
26
26
23
23

Somewhat approve
20
19
20
22
22
21
21
22
21
20
21
22
22
22
22
21
22
24
23
23
23
23
24
24
24
23
24
24
24
23
23
23
22
24
23
22
24
22
22
25

Somewhat disapprove
11
10
11
11
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
12
12
11
12
12
12
12
12
13
13
12
13
13
12
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
14
12
12
12

In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?

9/2610/2*
9/199/25*
9/129/18*
9/59/11
8/299/4
8/228/28
8/158/21
8/88/14
8/18/7

Republican
29
28
29
30
30
29
29
28
30

Democrat
36
36
36
34
34
34
35
34
36

Independent
33
34
34
34
35
36
34
37
32

No answer
1
1
1
2
2
1
1
1
2

Strongly disapprove
36
37
36
38
36
36
36
37
35
36
39
38
38
38
35
37
36
37
37
36
35
36
36
37
37
37
35
35
35
36
37
37
39
38
38
40
36
40
42
40

No answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

7/257/31
7/18---7/24
7/117/17
7/47/10
6/277/3
6/206/26
6/136/19
6/66/12
5/306/5
5/235/29
5/165/22
5/9 5/15
5/2 - 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/44/10
3/28 4/3
3/21 3/27
3/14 3/20
3/7 3/13
2/29 3/6
2/22 2/28
2/15 2/21
2/8 2/14
2/1 2/7
1/25 1/31
1/18 1/24
1/11 1/17
1/4 1/10
12/28 1/3

30
31
29
27
28
28
28
28
29
28
29
28
32
28
28
29
30
29
30
30
31
32
31
31
30
30
31
28
31
33
30

36
32
33
33
34
35
34
35
35
33
34
35
35
36
35
34
34
35
33
36
35
36
35
35
35
35
34
34
34
32
34

33
36
36
38
37
36
36
36
36
37
35
35
31
35
36
35
35
35
36
32
33
31
33
33
33
33
33
36
33
34
34

1
1
1
2
1
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
2
2
2

As of today, do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party? [AMONG IND OR DONT KNOW FOR
PARTY]
9/2610/2*
9/199/25*
9/129/18*
9/59/11
8/299/4
8/228/28
8/158/21
8/88/14
8/18/7
7/257/31
7/187/24
7/117/17
7/47/10
6/277/3
6/206/26
6/136/19
6/66/12
5/306/5
5/235/29
5/16 5/22
5/9 5/15
5/2 5/8

Republican
Party
35
36
35
34
31
31
29
31
29
33
32
37
32
33
32
32
33
33
32
31
33
32

Democratic
Party
29
30
29
26
26
28
26
27
29
27
26
26
26
26
29
28
28
26
28
29
28
32

Neither
33
31
33
39
41
40
43
39
40
38
39
34
39
37
36
36
36
37
37
37
36
35

No answer
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
3
4
3
3
4
3
3
3
3
3
1

4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4 4/10
3/28 4/3
3/21 3/27
3/14 3/20
3/7 3/13
2/29 3/6
2/22 2/28
2/15 2/21
2/8 2/14
2/1 2/7
1/25 1/31
1/18 1/24
1/11 1/17
1/4 1/10
12/28 1/3

32
35
33
33
31
31
31
31
32
34
38
34
35
34
33
36
36
37

27
27
30
28
29
28
28
27
29
28
28
28
30
26
27
26
26
24

38
35
34
35
38
37
39
41
36
36
33
35
33
37
39
37
36
37

3
3
3
4
2
4
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
3
2
2
1
1

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote?

9/2610/2*
9/199/25*
9/129/18*
9/59/11
8/299/4
8/228/28
8/158/21
8/88/14
8/18/7
7/257/31
7/187/24
7/117/17
7/47/10
6/277/3
6/206/26
6/136/19
6/66/12
5/306/5
5/235/29
5/16 5/22
5/9 5/15
5/2 5/8

Hillary
Clinton, the
Democrat
50
51
50
48
48
48
50
50
51
50
46
46
47
48
49
48
49
48
47
47
48
49

Donald Trump,
the Republican
44
44
45
44
42
42
42
41
41
42
45
45
44
43
41
42
42
44
45
43
45
44

No
answer
6
6
6
8
10
10
8
8
8
8
9
9
10
9
10
10
9
9
8
9
7
7

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates for whom would you vote?

9/2610/2*
9/199/25*
9/129/18*

Donald
Trump, the
Republican
40
40
40

Hillary
Clinton, the
Democrat
46
45
45

Gary
Johnson,
the
Libertarian
9
10
10

Jill Stein,
the
Green
Party
3
3
4

No
answer
2
2
2

9/59/11
8/299/4
8/228/28
8/158/21
8/88/14
8/18/7
7/257/31
7/187/24
7/117/17
7/47/10
6/277/3
6/206/26
6/136/19
6/66/12
6/26/5

40
37
37
38
37
38
38
41
40
38
38
36
38
38
40

42
41
41
43
43
44
43
39
39
40
41
42
42
42
39

11
12
11
11
11
10
9
10
10
11
9
9
9
9
9

4
4
5
5
4
4
4
5
5
6
5
5
5
5
4

3
6
6
4
5
4
5
6
7
6
6
7
7
6
8

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Tim Kaine?

9/2610/2*
8/18/7
7/257/31

Strongly
favorable
13
11
11

Somewhat
favorable
20
22
19

Somewhat
unfavorable
12
13
13

Strongly
unfavorable
14
12
10

Dont know
enough to say
40
41
46

No answer
2
2
2

Strongly
unfavorable
20
18
18
17

Dont know
enough to say
33
36
37
48

No answer
2
1
1
1

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Mike Pence?

9/2610/2*
8/18/7
7/187/24
7/157/18

Strongly
favorable
17
14
15
11

Somewhat
favorable
18
19
17
15

Somewhat
unfavorable
11
12
11
9

What are the chances that you will vote in the general election for President in November?

9/2610/2
9/199/25
9/129/18

Absolutely
certain I
will vote
82
81
81

Large chance
I will vote
8
9
10

50-50
chance I will
vote
5
5
5

Small chance I
will vote
2
2
2

I will not
vote
1
2
2

No
answer
1
1
1

METHODOLOGY
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking data for the week of September 26, 2016 through October 2, 2016 was conducted online
among a national sample of 26,925 adults aged 18 and over who are likely to vote. Respondents for this survey were selected from the nearly three
million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Data for this week has been weighted for age, race, sex, education,
region, and voter registration status using the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey to reflect the demographic
composition of the United States. An additional smoothing parameter for ideology based on previous Election Tracking interviews is included. The
smoothing parameter was derived from aggregated data on ideology by region collected from previous weeks (May 1-June 26) of the Weekly
Election Tracking poll.
Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error
can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and
measurement error.
To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an error estimate.
The bootstrap confidence interval for this survey is plus or minus 1.0 percentage point for likely voters.
To calculate the bootstrap confidence interval we use the weighted data to generate 5000 independent samples and calculate the 95% confidence
intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into consideration in
much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error.
Group
Total LVs

Unweighted N

26,925

Plus or minus
1.0

Republican LVs
Democrat LVs
Independent LVs

7,727
9,373
9,541

1.5
1.4
1.3

Male LVs
Female LVs

14,118
12,807

1.0
1.1

18-24 LVs
25-34 LVs
35-44 LVs
45-54 LVs
55-64 LVs
65+ LVs

1,625
2,824
3,909
5,825
6,949
5,793

3
2.5
2.1
1.7
1.5
1.6

White LVs
Black LVs
Hispanic LVs
Other LVs

21,405
2,113
1,319
2,088

1.0
3
3.6
2.8