University of Western Australia

School of Mathematics and Statistics

STAT152O, Semester 1 2At3

Mid-semester Test
Student Number:

Famiiy Name:

9C L\,\'T \e Nj 6 ANb \AxRidiqG \< Y

Use Block Letters

Given Name:
Use Block Letters

Please select your tutorial time from the following.

on 9 am ENCM:G23 Tom Lawrence
11 am ENCM:G23 Marco Susilo
1 pm ENCNI:G23 Bernadette Podesta-Bajada
3 pm ENCM:G23 Andrew Hardegen
10 am ENCM:G23 Oliver Yee
2pm ENCM:G23 Dinuka Muhandiramge
9 am ENCM:G23 Oliver Yee
12 noon ENCN{:G23 Hubert Heng
2 pm ENCM:G23 Hubert Heng
u 10 am ENCM:G23 Milena Jacobs
u 1pm ENCM:G23 Milena Jacobs
i 9 am ENCM:111 Nur Izzati Mokak
i 2 pm ENCM:111 Robert Nguyen

9 am ENCM:111 Cheryl Ng
11 am ENCM:111 Andrew Hardegen
1 pm ENCM:111 Parinaz Ezzati

3 pm ENCNI:111 Parinaz Ezzati

e 10 am ENCM:111 Andrew Hardegen
2 pm ENCM:111 Nur Izzati Mokak
9 am ENCM:111 Marco Susilo
12 noon ENCM:111 Harendran Thiruganam
10 am ENCM:111 Cheryl Ng
1 pm ENCM:111 Harendran Thiruganam

3 pm ENCM:G23 Bernadette Podesta-Bajada

10 am ENCM:G23 Dinuka Muhandiramse

1. Th'is test counts for 15% of your fi,nal mark for STAT1520.

2. Total nlarks:
3. Attempt all

100.

questi,ons.

4. Were appropriate, worki,ng with reasons

should be gi,uen.

5. Tables haue been proui,ded wi,th thi,s test.

6. THIS IS AN OPEN BOOK TEST.
T'ime Li,mit:

hour 30 m'inutes

Section 1 (30 marks) This section contains multiple choice questions. Each question is worth
1. A discrete random variable

P(X:

takes values 0, 1 and 2, with

2 marks.

px(0) : 0.3,py(2) : 0.4. What

is

1)?

Io.t
[0.r.
Xo.r.

fl

o.as.

2. A discrete random variable X takes only positive values, and P(X

one of the following must be true?

1)

0.1,

P(X

2)

0.3. Which

T E(x)<3.
T E(X) >
3.

P(X>3)<0.6.

P(X < 1) :0.

A discrete random variable

be true?

u P(X:0) : P(X:

takes values 0, 1 and 2, and E(X)

1. Which one of the following must

1).

P(x: 1) : P(x:2).

X P(X:0) : P(X:2).
P(x:

1)

:0.5.

AdiscreterandomvariableXtakesvalues-1,0and1,with P(X: -1): P(X:1). Whichoneof

the following must be true?

E(X2)

f]
f]

fl

"(x,)
"(x')

u1x';

Var(X).

> var(X).
< va,r(x).

:o

5. Let X and Y

be random variables

X urd W : L.
Put I,/:
OX
OY

with E(X) > E(Y), Var(Y)

: t?, and Var(X) : ti,

Which one of the fbllowins statements must be true'/

[] V

and.W have equal means.

ffiV

and.W have equal variances.

variances of I/ and,W arc 1.

/WTheThe means of V and W are equal but the variances are di$erent.
/
lJ

f,it\",er cr

b.lch

where

oy ) oy.

6. Let Z-N(0,1),andputX:2(2+Z).Whichoneof thefollowingstatementsistrue?

x
x
[] x
ffi x

I
I

- t/(4,1).
- N(4,2).
* N(2,2).

- N(4,4).

7.Let Y-l/(0,1)and Z-N(0,1),andletCov(Y,Z):t. Whatisthedistributionof 3Y-42?

.^,r(0, 1).

l/(0, -1).

u l/(-1,13).
n
,^/(0,49).

8. Let X

- Poi()) with E(X) :

2. Which of the foliowing must be true?

:a
Xl n1x'; :6

o1x';

n(x')

: \/r,.

fj t("') : var(X).
9. The random variable X - Bin(10000,0.0002) has the
a Poisson distribution. What is P(Y S2)?

same mean as lhe random variable

Y which

has

2)?

I o.orea
f o.zzoz
f]
o.saso

ffi o.ozoz
10. The random variable

as a binomial distribution

with mean 2 and variance 1.6. What is P{X

0.1937
0.3020
0.9298

0.6778

11. Random variables Xt, Xz and X3 have equal variances o2 :

1 and Cov(Xr,Xs) : 0. Put Yr: Xr - X2 and Yz: Xz f

X -.).

n -1.
u
1.

0.

Also, Cov(Xr, Xz) : -1, Cov(X2, Xs)

&. What is Cov(Y1,Y2)?
'J'.

12. The random variable X has a U(0,2) distribution. What is

n
u
n

P6/X < r.2r)?

0.55
0.605
1

X 0.73205
13. Random variables X and Y satisfu Cov(X. Y)

0. Which one

of the following must be true?

I X and Y are independent.

: o or E(Y) :0.
L]

[]
[f
1.4. Let

"(x) :
nlxv; o.
v*1x + Y) : var(X) + var(Y).

Jr(:
f

fl

N(0, 1). Which of the following is true?

:0.5
pti z l> t) :2P(z < \).
ott zl>r):2P1 zl<r).
P(z l> r):210.5 - P(o <z < 1)1.
o)

Let Z -N(0,1) and P(Z < k)

n where 0.5

<a<

1.

Which of the following is true?

:0.5-a
zl>k):2a.

P(Z>k)

fl
f
X

"ft
rtt z l> k):
"tt

2(o.b

a).

zl>k):2-2a.

END OF SECTION ONE

Section 2 (70 marks)

1. (2pmarks) Plumbers Inc.

sells plumbing supplies for commercial and residential applications. The

company currently has only one supplier for a particular type of faucet. Based on historical data
that the company has maintained, the following ls the probability distribution fbr the proportion X
of defective faucets in any given consignment that it receives from this supplier.

0.01 .02 .05

0.4 0.3 0.2

(a) What is the probability that more than

0.1
0.1

5% of faucets are defective

in a consignment?
(1 mark)

(b) Find the mean

and standard deviation of the proportion of defective faucets in a deliverv.

(4 marks)

E8)= Q gttb 4: tg:92)Lg:1)

-.r Lo o5)(e z)

tto

Dto t)

o.o3
-L
:

Vor E)

Lo .

osio.z) + e.D=b

O _oO \6G

(x') LEQe-l'
o . oo\G6 - @'o:)t
o- Q oOl 6

So

gx

ooo-1

o-azaG

(c) The supplier charges Plumbers Inc. $29 per unit for this faucet. Although the supplier will
replace defective faucets free of charge, Plumbers Inc. managers estimate that the cost of dealing
with defects is about $5 each. Plumbers Inc. are planning to purchase 2,000 of these faucets
from the supplier.

i. What is the total

(3 marks)

expected cost to Plumbers Inc. for this purchase?

Toto[,

::ee)) t

eeeg x) r s
I

at
o f-\nrr
t ^ n^n \
1. ... I9,99S
=P5.p.;uu
ELrotql,(nst)= 58ooo + \oCIoE0O
=, s8ooo + \ooco Cc os)
: s 5 9,390

ii. What is the standard deviation

(2 marks)

of the total cost for this purchase?

'5 . p Cr"tal, Cogt)

Qo qp:) o

(\: 9??) ( o grlq

421Q

(d) Plumbers Inc. has the opportunity to buy the same faucet from another supplier at the cost
of $28.50 per unit, wiht the cost of dealing with defects still $5 each. However, based on
its investigations, Plumbing Inc. has assessed the following probability distribution for the
proportion Y of defective faucets that will be delivered by the new supplier.

i. What

is the

total

.02 .05
0.1 0.1 0.7

| 0.01

0.1
0.1

expected cost to Plumbing Inc. for this purchase of 2,000 faucets?

E$ v [q

(4 marks)

'qr)

[p'r) s (e eA (s"i)

i b':F)tq':il*tr"i)Lp:D = o-:94s
Tcb.l." bg,t, '= zo-mlzg'Sc)+

Qlce\.).,s

s-lr0oc I ia,Ooc "{

.2_\
Etc!r\0 tcar.) - +Sl,oco + )g,IPgqC
. . ..=. .

'= S 5'1, AgC

ii. What

is the standard deviation of the total cost for this purchase?

k")"= e reD=Cg:il *&::A"ze:t

(3 marks)

+ g :g5)-=& ,1) rr p: DLo:t) =O'AoZ?

v q{:

b) *

Etu
{FrD)=
,r- o . ,.ocZg *(S 'c48)z

o.aoo4-3C

999 13,6
t

6,

D,.

(T.e

r*\

!p:rp). =

(e)

Si 2'L5

Based on your calculations, recommend a supplier to Plumbers Inc., justifying your choice.

(3 marks)

5
(>c .[c'LpL,

C'c,'jt'

,{.'J

,,Uu-"\ V c,w.r "bto- \

2. (L2 marks) A business analyst

price

(x)

assesses that the joint probability mass function of demand {D) and
for a product for the next quarter is as shown in the table below.

2000 2500

3000

$30

0.10 0.10

0.10

$35

0.20 0.00

0.20

o"4

$40

0.30 0.00

0.00

o, '5

@)
o ,'3

o,i o'3
(a) Find the expected demand in the next quarter?

EtD)

2ooo

(2 marks)

t::p)r ?Fe:(p:D
s,

pee Lo:

23 5o

l)

(b)

(4 marks)

7Sao

Sco(c

o,5
E

8t X1 Fi

7o* (p:q)r *r(::'5)

=- Z5oo

l0

(c) Find the covariance

E Q( P)

(3 marks)

between orice and demand.

il:
G qs:) Fp) (e il)
"
s
0 * eoo.)(ls)(p: a)
J F,aeqhs)(s'D t e..flG$ts:g
Gqgs-)119(e :
Cf-":9; FO(p:

ioi : ?;tl:, luiu;a;,^i(;")t-*i= fi

.:

Lcy 8,?)

_ G|D(D)
= ct^E
s\ s:p

::6') C?99)

15o

=
(d) What is the expected

revenue from sales of this product in the next

E (tEgs+nr:.')

quarter?

t
(1 mark)

(*P:
= !t

(e) Are price and demand independent? Justify your

11

8!, 59P

answer.

(2 marks)

3. (8 marks) An real estate agent has 20 properties listed for sale. The probability of selling each
property within 3 months is 0.3. Assume that the property sales are independent of each other. Let
the random variable

denote the number of properties sold within 3 months out of the 20 listed.

(a) State the distribution of X.

X --,

(1 mark)

ts t^

(2g r 9r -5)

(b) What is the probability that no more than

(x4s)

5 properties are sold within 3 months?

(2 marks)

'2 o' 4\G4

(")

If three of the properties

are sold in the flrst month, what is the probability

properties are sold within 3 months?

that at least 10
(3 marks)

/\\
(x'_\9\x>3)

: P( Kz\onx:il
P( K > 3)
z\ o/
P (^> 4

\ *

P(x.4'1)

\ - P (xe4

L2

!: 9:9544

C,.OAr3?
t --= c> ,c1355 =
t

(b) What is the probability that on 3 out of 5 days in a week the process takes longer than two
hours?
(3 marks)

e (Y= -5) = t?)&:ez1)3(p:3-rtz)'

c. ooo\

(c) The company is considering outsourcing this task. A quote for this job from an IT company
given in the table below.

is

LengthofJob? (minutess) 7<60 60<f < 120 T >120

600

Cost ($)

i.

1000

(5 marks)

What is the mean cost per file?

6a z5

,t.
<-)

.a-

\za

6o<:
0()

'E(o =

I oca

a.3 5 44

c'{Laa
'zea (o,

.'t.z) +

74

g ' c'2.re

Gco (-o,o

\eee ( c a 'LLrt)

$ Coo

"T

lo

ii.

The company will accept a quote if the average cost per month (30 days) is less than $25,000.
(2 marks)
Should the company accept this quote? Justify your answer.

{VlA

p{-f MovltVr
a,rr Cctfi 'r""'
3Q ( 6pe)
:... S i9,.Pg.q.
.i ttote.
Acce-prc
....|..P

5. (9 marks) The number of faults in

one metre of a particular type of thread is known to har,-e a

Poisson distribution. It is claimed that the average number of faults is 0.02 per metre. A random
sample of 100 one metre lengths of thread reveals a total of 6 faults. Let ,\ be the mean number of
faults and let the random variable X denote the number of faults in 100 metres of thread.

(a) In terms of ) state the null and alternative hypotheses to answer the question: Is the

mean

number of faults more than 2 per 100 metre length of thread?

(2 marks)

(b)

State the distribution of

X.

X-

(1 mark)

Ppr

[])

(c) Calculate the p-value of the test.

(2 marks)

.= c), a\G6
1(
trJ

(d)

(2 marks)

Test the hlpotheses at the 2.57a level of significance.

""1'b - Vqlute
"t""
'to
tvr9d'.9,.... i.3 .. ..p$ $$r +.ig-!lt .. .3i q "l.eS.S'
'fe- i a.;L t-h e- r,r ,-r, f.i-, !l v ,rc"LVr(fbi C cLt t"vr L
'l't'
' 'iJ' ' '
.

'

? :5

ils

sf

-os!s.P

?| 0lylr

rcqvlce
(2 marks)

(e) Write a one sentence conclusion to the hypothesis test.

....*tVr.+ Jo,tc' .. i.,f=Jt. gq.t*. t krrut..:tkp... 1qi.g$n

...lg.mrVrg,!: c- $. f,+.*.$-hg..r.q f re.-a-te,r ...U-h9rir
p...r- rao
su_L
... .r..
... .tJ.
6 \ 2nl 9i Lo.inc .<:.."..

(;:

il; o:l

6. (9 marks) An airline claims that

90% of its flights are on time. A random sample of 20 flights found

time. Let p denote the probability that a flight is on time, and let the randorn variable
X denote the number of flights that are on time out of twenty.

that

16 were on

(a) In terms of p, state the null and alternative hypotheses to answer the question: Is the probability
(2 marks)
that a flight is on time less than 0.9?

c.9
\Jn: p=
t"

(b) State the distribution of X.

X,-.,

(1 marks)

Bi,,r

( zpr, P)

(2 marks)

(") Caiculate the p-value of the test.

--: P(x
.p:\j.qqlrd1" " "'

i ic \\p:a'))
"//""
\"t"'

16

(d)

(eJ

END OF PAPER

17