Result Update

August 24, 2015

Rating matrix
Rating
Target
Target Period
Potential Upside

:
:
:
:

Whats changed?
Target
EPS FY16E
EPS FY17E
Rating

Q4FY15 QoQ (%)

884.2
7.0
355.1
42.0
40.2 1313 bps
137.0
136.3

FY14
3,092
1,436
574
38.1

FY15E
3,438
1,433
748
49.6

FY16E
3,671
1,606
854
56.6

FY17E
3,814
1,691
818
54.2

FY14
9.2
10.6
5.7
0.8
8.5
6.8

FY15E
7.1
8.2
6.1
0.7
10.1
6.3

FY16E
6.6
7.2
5.4
0.7
10.5
7.2

FY17E
6.9
7.6
5.7
0.6
9.3
6.9

Valuation summary
P/E
Target P/E
EV / EBITDA
P/BV
RoNW (%)
RoCE (%)

Stock data
Particular
Market Capitalization (| Crore)
Total Debt Gross (FY14) (| Crore)
Cash and Investments (FY14) (| Crore)
EV (| Crore)
52 week H/L
Equity capital
Face value
Stock data
Stocks
GE Shipping
SCI

Mercator Lines

| 375

Continued traction from Offshore & tanker segment

Changed from |405 to |410

Changed from |51.6 to |56.6
Unchanged
Hold

Quarterly performance
Q1FY16 Q1FY15 YoY (%)
Revenue
946.5
808.2
17.1
EBITDA
504.4
370.7
36.1
EBITDA (%)
53.3
45.9 742 bps
PAT
323.7
222.9
45.2
Key financials
| Crore
Net Sales
EBITDA
Net Profit
EPS (|)

Great Eastern Shipping (GESHIP)

Hold
| 410
12 months
9%

Amount
5,654.3
6,149.3
2,380.1
8,736.7
467 / 327
150.8
10.0

1M
9.2
35.3

3M
12.4
41.1

6M
13.1
38.1

1 Yr
7.1
28.4

3.9

41.6

35.3

-34.2

Analyst
Bharat Chhoda
bharat.chhoda@icicisecurities.com
Ankit Panchmatia
ankit.panchmatia@icicisecurities.com

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

GE Shippings (Gesco) Q1FY16 revenue grew by 17% YoY (+7%

QoQ) at | 946.54 crore (I-direct estimate: | 893 crore). Revenue days
for the shipping segment improved by 40 days YoY to 2642 days.
Further, higher utilization has led to improvement in revenue days for
offshore segment by 117 days to 2167 days
EBITDA for the quarter grew by 36% YoY (+42% QoQ) to | 504 crore
(I-direct estimate: | 364 crore). The performance was mainly on
account of lower fuel expenses, which stood at 8.5% of sales
compared to ~14% in the previous comparables. Subsequently, the
company posted best ever EBITDA margin which stood at 53.3%
On the back of revenue growth and EBITDA margins; PAT stood at |
324 crore which was highest quarterly PAT since FY10. PAT was
boosted by operational performance coupled with Forex gain of |34
crore and profit from sale of ship of | 25.
On the bandwagon of rally in Tanker rates
Gescos fleet profile is skewed towards the tanker segment with a fleet
size of 21 tankers (8-Crude carriers, 12 Product carriers & 1 Gas carrier).
Due to this the company was comparatively less impacted by the
meltdown in shipping industry. Owing to slowdown in seaborne trade,
coupled with oversupply of haulage capacity; dry bulk shipping freight
rates spiralled downwards (BDI declined 55% YoY in FY15).
Subsequently, Tanker charter rates per day ($/day) more than doubled
annually across all asset class (VLCC, Suexmax, Aframax and Clean).
Continuous higher supplies from refineries to meet the static demand, led
to increase in storage demand. On the asset prices front, Gescos NAV
sequentially grew by 3.5% to | 536 per share as compared to | 518 in
Q4FY15. NAV grew at a CAGR of 8% over 2010-15. The revenue visibility
for shipping in Q1FY16 was | 392 crores.
Fleet configuration keeps the company on firm feet...
Gesco is the second largest shipping fleet operator in the country with 30
ships totalling ~2.36 million dwt haulage capacity and an average age of
9.6 years. The fleet is well diversified with 21 tankers and 9 dry bulk ships.
With a proactive management at the helm, Gesco has deliberately
reduced its exposure to the dry bulk segment. In Q1FY16, the company
took a delivery of an 81600 DWT dry bulk carrier. However, within the
quarter itself it was sold, for which delivery is scheduled in
August/September 2015. This reflects the expertise of management to
gain from the asset rate fluctuations.
Offshore segment levered by delay in maintenance activities
Gesco operates in the offshore segment through its wholly owned
subsidiary Greatship (India) Ltd comprising nearly 49% of total revenues
in Q1FY16. The revenue visibility for FY16 of offshore segment is | 1287
crore (~77% of earnings in FY15). The quarter was expected to be soft
due to maintenance activities carried out by refineries. On account of
higher refining margins prevailing, maintenance was delayed by majority
of refineries which kept up the offshore days to 2167 days.
With stable revenue days and flat freight rates; earnings remain steady
We believe that the current quarter performance would not be sustainable
for the subsequent quarter as we expect tanker rates to stabilise; and bulk
rates to remain distressed at current levels. Consequently, we expect
revenue to grow with a CAGR of 5% over 2015-2017E and revise our
FY17E book value to | 586 and assign P/BV multiple of 0.7x to arrive at a
fair price of | 410. We have a HOLD recommendation on the stock.

Variance analysis
Q1FY16 Q1FY16E
946.5
892.7

Revenue

Q1FY15
808.2

YoY (%)
17.1

15.0
-32.5
21.3
11.5

Q4FY15 QoQ (%)

884.2
7.0

Employee Expenses
Fuel oil & water
Hire of chartered ships & equip
Other expenses

146.4
80.6
28.4
186.8

142.5
124.9
35.8
225.9

127.3
119.3
23.4
167.5

EBITDA
EBITDA Margin (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other income
Extra-ordinary gain/loss

504.4
53.3
161.4
69.9
21.2
59.2

363.6
40.7
153.1
77.8
46.9
0.0

370.7
36.1
45.9 742 bps
147.0
9.8
75.4
-7.3
42.6
-50.2
59.7
-0.9

355.1
42.0
40.2 1313 bps
156.3
3.3
75.6
-7.5
45.5
-53.5
-26.9
NA

Total Tax
PAT

29.8
323.7

21.5
157.9

27.7
222.9

7.7
45.2

5.0
137.0

Q1FY16 Q1FY15
563.4
505.9
497.4
435.1

YoY
11.4
14.3

Q4FY15
486.8
416.4

QoQ
15.7
19.5

2,602.0
2,050.0

1.5
5.7

2,603.0
1,997.0

1.5
8.5

FY16E
New % Change
3,671.0
0.0
1,605.6
5.4
43.7 223 bps

Old
3,813.7
1,690.9
44.3

Key Metrics
Shipping
Offshore
Revenue Days (Shipping)
Revenue Days (Offshore)

2,642.0
2,167.0

150.1
122.5
35.1
221.5

Comments
Shipping segment revenue posted growth of 11% YoY on back of firmness in
tanker day rates whereas offshore segment revenues grew 14% YoY

-2.4
-34.2
-19.1
-15.7
Lower Fuel expenses resulted in EBITDA performance
EBITDA margins were highest since FY10

Exceptional item includes profit on sale of ship to the tune of | 25 crore while
gain for forex transaction stood at | 34 crore

455.8
136.3

Tankers perked up shipping revenues

Continued refining activities and higher revenue days led to the improvement

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Change in estimates
(| Crore)
Revenue
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin (%)

Old
3,671.0
1,523.7
41.5

PAT
777.6
853.7
EPS (|)
51.6
56.6
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

FY17E
New % Change
3,813.7
0.0
1,690.9
0.0
44.3
0 bps

9.8
9.8

817.8
54.2

817.5
54.2

0.0
0.0

FY15
21,575
20,797
10,176

Current
FY16E
27,631
19,522
9,289

FY17E
36,178
23,847
10,232

Earlier
FY16E
27,631
19,522
9,289

Comments
Our FY16 & FY17 revenue estimates remain unchanged.
On the back of lower fuel costs on Q1FY16, we have increased our margin estimates
for FY16, however we expect this to moderate in FY17 and thus estimates for the same
remain unchanged

Assumptions

Average (TCY $/ day)

Crude carriers
Product carrier (incl Gas)
Dry Bulk

Comments
FY17E
36,178 Unchanged
23,847 Unchanged
10,232 Unchanged

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 2

Company Analysis
Product tanker keeps afloat as dry bulk recuperates
The shale gas revolution in the US together with geopolitical risks arising
in Iran and the Middle & North Africa (MENA) region resulted in long-haul
trade routes such as China, India and Latin-America. In terms of global
fleet addition, crude and product tanker segment tonnage capacity
increased at a CAGR of ~4.5% over 2007-13. As the segment added
lower capacity vis--vis the dry bulk segment, the freight rates downfall
was arrested, to a large extent. In the dry bulk segment, capacity addition
of nearly 106 and 58 million dwt was done in CY12 and CY13,
respectively. Though the dry bulk segment fleet addition has tapered it is
expected to grow at 6% and 4% in CY15 and CY16, respectively.
Consequently, freight rates continue to remain subdued. However, with a
pick-up in global seaborne trade, the dry bulk segment is also expected to
revive. As a result, Gesco plans to add five Kamsarmax dry bulk carriers
in FY16 to take advantage of the turning tide.
Exhibit 1: Shipping segment trend
3000
The shipping business for FY15-16 has
revenue visibility of ~| 303 crore. Of the
total number of fleet operating days, crude
and product carriers (including gas) are
covered to the extent of 27% and 15%,
respectively, whereas the dry bulk segment
is covered till 15% of fleets operating days.

2500
2000

143.3
481.7

146.3
431.1

1709.6

1735.2

FY12

FY13

317.3
204.7

1500
1000

564.5

493.2

1492.6

500

1734.1

Revenue

FY14
EBITDA

FY15

PAT

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Offshore segment continues to support amidst turbulent times

Gesco through its subsidiary Greatship Ltd operates 24 offshore vessels,
which includes three jack-up rigs, four platform support vessels, nine
AHTSV, two MPSSV and six ROVSVs. Gescos offshore segment is pretty
young with average age of nearly four years and is equipped with
technologically advanced positioning and fire fighting equipment. Further,
as safety becomes an important issue for oil companies, a young and
advanced fleet due to higher efficiency and minimum downtime comes as
a natural choice. Globally, an offshore vessel fleet is more than 22 years
old whereas jack-up rigs are about 24 years. Currently, the order book for
jack up rigs is at 22% of current fleet (523 rigs) followed by PSV and
AHTSV with order book of nearly 19% and 6% of current fleet,
respectively. On the demand front, with global E&P companies expected
to increase spending to ~$650 billion (up 4% YoY); however, spending
on offshore is expected to remain flattish. Consequently, utilisation and
demand levels are expected to taper for offshore companies.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 3

Exhibit 2: Offshore segment

On the offshore front, revenue visibility

3500

remains robust and stands at | 1510 crore

3000

for FY15-16. The fleet is better covered to the

2500

extent of 82% and 59% in PSV and AHTSV

2000

segment, respectively. In case of ROVSV and

MPSSV, the coverage stood at 77% and 29%,

1500

respectively, whereas jack-up rigs are

1000

covered to the extent of 94% of their

500

operating days for FY15-16

391.5

177.5
597.8

369.3

430.9

942.5

868.7

1599.3

1704.0

FY14

FY15

728.4

1245.9

1271.5

FY12

FY13

Revenue

EBITDA

PAT

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

| cr

Exhibit 3: Topline performance trend

4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0

3006.7

3091.9

FY13

FY14E

3438.0

FY15P

3671.0

3813.7

FY16E

FY17E

Revenue

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 4: EBITDA performance trend

1800

47.1
1435.7

1600

| cr

1200

1086.0

1159.5
38.9

44.7
41.9

42.1

37.0

1000

1523.7

1433.2

50.0
45.0
40.0
%

1400

1690.9

35.0

800
600

30.0

400

25.0

200
0

20.0
FY12

FY13

FY14
EBITDA

FY15E

FY16E

FY17E

OPM (%)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 4

Exhibit 5: OPM (%) trend Shipping & Offshore

Offshore segment margins contracted by 470

bps to 41.7% in FY15, on account higher
expenses for mobilization of a rig and a PSV.
However, going ahead, on account of higher
utilisation and lower mobilisation, cost
margins are expected to improve. Shipping
segment margins continue to reel under
pressure

50.0

46.4

45.0
40.0
35.0

33.0

28.2

30.0

41.7

38.6

36.5

32.6

24.8

25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
FY12

FY12

FY13

OPM (%) Standalone (Shipping)

FY14

OPM (%) Subsidiaries (Offshore & others)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 6: PAT performance trend Shipping & Offshore

900

748.2

800
700

18.0

600

537.7

22.0

25.0
20.0

574.0

15.0
%

| cr

500

18.8

817.8
21.6

777.6
21.4

400

10.8
316.6

300

10.0

200

5.0

100
0

0.0
FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15E
PAT

FY16E

FY17E

NPM

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 7: Gesco's fleet

During FY15, GE Shipping fleet size in the

14

shipping segment stands at 29 vessels

12

comprising eight crude carriers, 12 product

carriers, one gas carrier and eight dry bulk

10

carriers. In terms of dead weight tonnage,

the total fleet comprises 2.28 million dwt

with an average age of 9.9 years. On the

offshore fleet front, it comprises 5 PSVs, 6
ROSVs, 9 AHTSVs and 4 rigs.

12

13
10

8 8

9 9

4 4

2 2

1 1

6 6

5 5

0
Crude

Product

Dry Bulk LPG-VLGC

Rig

AHTS

Current Fleet

FY16E

PSV

MPSSV

ROVSV

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 5

Exhibit 8: Vessels on order

Vessel Type
Medium Range
(MR)Product Tanker
2 (Two) Kamsarmax Dry
Bulk Carriers
3 (Three) Kamsarmax Dry
Bulk Carriers

Approx
Dwt

Expected
Delivery

50000

Q4FY2016

81600

H1FY16

82,000(each)

Built at
STX (Dalian) Shipbuilding Co. Ltd.,China
Tsuneishi Shipbuilding Co.Ltd, Japan (Philippines
facility)

Q2 & Q3 CY16 Jiangsu New Yangzi Shipbuilding Co. Ltd.,China

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 9: Owned revenue days decline sharply

3500

2603

2547

2603

Q4FY15

2735

Q3FY15

2582

2500
2000

Q2FY15

Q1FY15

1500
Q4FY13

the spot market

2599

Q4FY14

thereby exposing the fleet to the volatility of

2590

Q2FY14

days, which stagnated at same level;

2718

Q1FY14

fleet declined 11%, since Q4FY13 to ~2600

(Days)

Revenue days (owned tonnage) for shipping

Q3FY14

2940

3000

Revunue Days (Standalone)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Net asset value declined improved on back of higher utilization

In terms of net asset value, over the past 10 years (FY05-14) Gesco
recorded an average NAV of | 411 on a consolidated basis with a peak of
| 632 in FY08. However, since the crisis, the NAV declined at a CAGR of
~8% over FY08-13 as asset prices plummeted globally. However, on the
back of steady seaborne trade growth at a CAGR of 5% between 2012
and 2014, asset prices had increased. Prices climbed sharply over FY1314 posting growth of 30% YoY against an average of 8% in the past three
years (FY11 to FY13). In Q1FY16, NAV stood at | 536 which sequentially
improved from | 518. Gescos average market price has always traded at
a discount to its NAV. With the recent run up in stock price, the stock at is
discount to the current NAV narrowed to ~25%.
Exhibit 10: NAV to Market price discount chart
0.60

700
600

0.51
0.43

500
400

0.33

0.37

300

0.41

0.25

200

0.40
0.32

0.28
0.21

100

0.50

0.41

0.30
0.25
0.20
0.10

0.09

0.00

0
FY05

FY06
NAV

FY07

FY08

FY09

AVG Market Price

FY10

FY11

FY12

Disc to NAV

FY13

FY14

FY15 Q1FY16

Avg Discount to NAV

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 6

Valuation
The key to GE Shippings stable performance in spite of being in a cyclical
industry has been the ability of its management to make the purchase and
sale of vessels at the right time. The composition of the fleet (crude, dry
bulk, offshore) has mostly been balanced and in line with the market
outlook for specific segments. The company has not shied away from
reducing exposure to a segment that has a depressed outlook and adding
vessels from a segment where the prospects are better. All this has been
achieved with a moderate leverage compared to its peers who have been
at the wrong end of the asset purchase/sale cycle or over aggressive on a
specific segment resulting in fleet concentration and, thereby, highly
volatile earnings.
We believe that GE Shipping would continue its consistent performance
on the back of a diversified fleet profile (48% shipping, 52% offshore). Its
presence in the high margin offshore segment would enable it to have
revenue visibility, going ahead, and reduce the volatility in revenues and
cushion its earnings. GE Shippings low leverage would enable it to tap
fleet expansion opportunities and grow at a decent pace. We expect it to
maintain a dividend payout in excess of ~20% over the next two years.
Rates for tanker segment have remained stable and improved
significantly over the past year. Going ahead, the product tanker category
and gas carriers are expected to perform well on back of firmer charter
rates. However, dry bulk rates have declined/stagnant and going ahead
with increased capacity it is expected to remain subdued. The average
P/BV multiple for Gesco was 0.6x in FY14 against 0.57x in FY13. Going
ahead, as overall outlook remains fairly stable we rollover to FY17
estimates with expected book value of | 582 in FY17E and assign a P/BV
of 0.7x to FY17E estimates to arrive at a fair price of | 410 and
recommend HOLD rating on the stock.
Exhibit 11: P/BV trend
600.00
500.00
400.00
300.00
200.00
100.00

Close -Unit Curr

0.5 X

0.6 X

0.7 X

EPS
(|)
38.1
49.6
56.6
54.2

EPS
Growth (%)
7.8
30.4
14.1
-4.2

PE
(x)
9.2
7.1
6.6
6.9

0.8 X

Jun-15

Jun-14

Jun-13

Jun-12

Jun-11

Jun-10

Jun-09

Jun-08

Jun-07

Jun-06

Jun-05

0.00

1.0 X

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 12: Valuations

FY14
FY15P
FY16E
FY17E

Sales
(| cr)
3091.9
3438.0
3671.0
3813.7

Sales
Growth (%)
2.8
11.2
6.8
3.9

EV/EBITDA
(x)
5.7
6.1
5.4
5.7

RoNW
(%)
8.5
10.1
10.5
9.3

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 7

RoCE
(%)
6.8
6.3
7.2
6.9

Company snapshot
500
450

Target Price: 410

400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
Apr-16

Feb-16

Dec-15

Oct-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Apr-15

Feb-15

Dec-14

Oct-14

Aug-14

Jun-14

Apr-14

Feb-14

Dec-13

Oct-13

Aug-13

Apr-13

Jun-13

Feb-13

Dec-12

Oct-12

Aug-12

Jun-12

Apr-12

Feb-12

Dec-11

Oct-11

Aug-11

Jun-11

Apr-11

Feb-11

Dec-10

Source: Bloomberg, Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Key events
Date

Event

Feb-11

Finance Ministry allows duty free import of spare parts to ship owners

Apr-11

GE Shipping sells three VLCCs under construction of 318,000 dwt each and mulls focusing on lucrative ofshore segment; BDI falls 50% in six months

Nov-11

Sharp decline in profit of 84% YoY in Q2FY12

Jul-12

GE Shipping plans to buy VLGC of about 49,700 dwt of 1990 built and is expected to join the fleet in Q2FY13

Aug-13

GE Shipping announces buy back of shares @ | 279 to the aggregate amount of | 279 crore

Sep-13

Order of offshore rig (delivery 2015), taken delivery of medium range product tanker "Jag Pranav"

Oct-13

RBI restricts FII purchase on GE Shipping after it triggers limit of 24%; GE Shipping contracts to build three new Kamsarmax ships

Jun-15

Posted Q1FY16 results. Reported best ever EBITDA margins 30.3%, since FY10

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Top 10 Shareholders
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Shareholding Pattern

Name
ICICI Prudential Asset Management Co. Ltd.
Sheth (Bharat Kanaiyalal)
Sheth (Ravi Kanaiyalal)
Nalanda Capital Pte Ltd
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Ltd.
UTI Asset Management Co. Ltd.
Fidelity Management & Research Company
Laadki Trading & Investment, Ltd.
General Insurance Corporation of India
SBI Funds Management Pvt. Ltd.

Latest Filing Date

% O/S Position (m)
30-Jun-15 10.27
15.5
30-Jun-15 9.83
14.83
30-Jun-15 9.53
14.36
30-Jun-15 6.98
10.52
30-Jun-15 3.65
5.50
30-Jun-15 3.20
4.83
30-Jun-15 3.18
4.80
30-Jun-15 3.07
4.62
30-Jun-15 2.30
3.47
30-Jun-15 1.46
2.20

Change (m)
0.3
(1.50)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.02
(0.09)
1.50
0.00
2.20

(in %)
Promoter
FII
DII
Others

Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15

30.5
30.5
30.5
30.4
30.4
25.5
23.9
22.7
22.1
22.9
15.4
17.3
18.0
19.1
19.0
28.6
28.2
28.9
28.3
27.7

Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research

Recent Activity
Buys
Investor name
SBI Funds Management Pvt. Ltd.
Laadki Trading & Investment, Ltd.
PGGM Vermogensbeheer B.V.

Value
11.56m
7.88m
3.85m

Shares
2.20m
1.50m
0.67m

Sells
Investor name
Franklin Advisers, Inc.
Sheth (Bharat Kanaiyalal)
FIL Investment Management (Hong Kong) Limited

Value
-14.12m
-7.88m
-4.26m

Shares
-2.20m
-1.50m
-0.81m

Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 8

Financial summary
Profit and loss statement
(Year-end March)
Total operating Income
Growth (%)
Employee Expenses
Fuel, Oil & Water
Hire of Chartered ships
Spares & Stores
Repairs & maintainence
Other
Total Expenditure
EBITDA
Growth (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Extraord Income / (Exp)
Total Tax
PAT
Growth (%)
EPS (|)

| Crore
FY14
3,091.9
2.8
506.9
395.7
79.2
201.0
134.53
338.9
1,656.2
1,435.7
23.8
658.0
378.8
131.3
530.2
110.2
59.2
574.0
6.7
38.1

FY15P
3,438.0
11.2
557.9
506.5
119.3
211.6
189.03
420.5
2,004.8
1,433.2
-0.2
614.4
300.6
165.1
683.3
114.8
49.9
748.2
6.7
49.6

FY16E
3,671.0
6.8
636.9
391.2
145.6
273.0
145.58
473.1
2,065.4
1,605.6
12.0
673.5
311.1
181.0
802.0
115.9
64.3
853.7
30.4
56.6

FY17E
3,813.7
3.9
623.8
491.5
128.5
264.6
170.12
444.2
2,122.8
1,690.9
5.3
718.1
307.4
101.5
766.9
121.7
71.1
817.5
14.1
54.2

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Balance sheet

| Crore

(Year-end March)
Liabilities
Equity Capital
Reserve and Surplus
Total Shareholders funds
Total Debt
Long Term Provisions
Minority Int / Others
Total Liabilities

FY14P

FY15P

FY16E

FY17E

150.8
6,621.8
6,772.5
4,639.4
29.2
0.0
11,441.2

150.8
7,279.8
7,430.6
5,462.6
33.4
0.0
12,926.6

150.8
7,974.8
8,125.6
4,839.5
33.4
0.0
12,998.4

150.8
8,633.6
8,784.4
5,339.5
33.4
0.0
14,157.2

Assets
Gross Block
Less: Acc Depreciation
Net Block
Capital WIP
Total Fixed Assets
Oth non-current assets
Investments
Inventory
Debtors
Loans and Advances
Other Current Assets
Cash
Total Current Assets
Creditors
Oth liab and provisions
Total Current Liabilities
Net Current Assets
Others Assets
Application of Funds

13,633.2
3,432.6
10,200.6
0.0
10,200.6
109.5
26.0
139.7
275.0
143.2
1,127.8
2,016.2
3,701.8
212.5
2,386.2
2,598.7
1,103.1
2.0
11,441.2

15,161.9
4,047.0
11,114.9
0.0
11,114.9
132.2
32.6
140.1
334.6
129.5
1,270.2
2,380.1
4,254.5
215.5
2,393.1
2,608.5
1,645.9
0.9
12,926.6

16,161.9
4,720.5
11,441.4
0.0
11,441.4
30.0
26.0
179.5
428.8
219.4
1,528.6
1,819.5
4,175.7
299.1
2,376.5
2,675.6
1,500.1
0.9
12,998.4

17,161.9
5,438.6
11,723.3
0.0
11,723.3
30.0
26.0
186.4
445.4
227.9
1,588.0
1,413.8
3,861.4
310.7
1,173.7
1,484.4
2,377.0
0.9
14,157.2

Cash flow statement

(Year-end March)
Profit after Tax
Add: Depreciation
(Inc)/dec in Current Assets
Inc/(dec) in CL and Provisions
Others
CF from operating activities
(Inc)/dec in Investments
(Inc)/dec in Fixed Assets
Others
CF from investing activities
Issue/(Buy back) of Equity
Inc/(dec) in loan funds
Dividend paid & dividend tax
Inc/(dec) in Sec. premium
Others
CF from financing activities
Net Cash flow
Opening Cash
Closing Cash

| Crore
FY14P
574.0
658.0
43.3
204.0
35.4
2,123.4
-10.0
-1,815.5
0.0
-1,595.6
-152.5
-1,050.0
-185.7
0.0
1,268.3
-498.6
29.2
1,987.0
2,016.2

FY15P
748.2
614.4
-50.3
9.8
123.5
1,746.3
-6.6
-1,743.1
0.0
-1,749.7
0.0
823.2
-149.9
0.0
-878.4
367.3
363.9
2,016.2
2,380.1

FY16E
853.7
673.5
-223.2
67.1
0.0
1,682.2
6.6
-1,273.5
0.0
-1,266.9
0.0
-623.1
-158.8
0.0
990.2
-975.9
-560.6
2,380.1
1,819.5

FY17E
817.5
718.1
-32.9
-1,191.2
250.0
869.0
0.0
-1,318.1
0.0
-1,318.1
0.0
500.0
-158.8
0.0
9.5
43.4
-405.8
1,819.5
1,413.8

FY14P

FY15P

FY16E

FY17E

38.1
81.7
449.2
15.9
133.7

49.6
90.4
492.8
12.8
157.9

56.6
101.3
538.9
13.6
120.7

54.2
101.8
582.6
13.6
93.8

47.1
17.1
18.8
16.5
32.9
25.1

42.1
19.9
22.0
18.0
43.0
30.0

44.1
21.8
23.5
18.0
43.0
30.0

44.7
20.1
21.6
18.0
43.0
30.0

8.5
6.8
6.1

10.1
6.3
7.1

10.5
7.2
7.7

9.3
6.9
6.4

9.2
5.7
2.7
1.7
0.8

7.1
6.1
2.5
1.6
0.7

6.6
5.4
2.4
1.5
0.7

6.9
5.7
2.5
1.5
0.6

3.2
0.7
1.4
16.8

3.8
0.7
1.6
19.1

3.0
0.6
1.6
13.4

3.2
0.6
2.6
11.8

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Key ratios
(Year-end March)
Per share data (|)
EPS
Cash EPS
BV
DPS
Cash Per Share
Operating Ratios (%)
EBITDA Margin
PBT / Total Operating income
PAT Margin
Inventory days
Debtor days
Creditor days
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
RoIC
Valuation Ratios (x)
P/E
EV / EBITDA
EV / Net Sales
Market Cap / Sales
Price to Book Value
Solvency Ratios
Debt/EBITDA
Debt / Equity
Current Ratio
Quick Ratio

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 9

ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (Shipping)

G.E Shipping
Pipavav Defence
Guj Pipavav port#
SCI

CMP (|) TP (|) Rating

375
410 HOLD
58
55 HOLD
180
225 BUY
75
70 HOLD

Mcap (| Cr)
5,654.3
4,564.5
8,694.0
3,493.5

EPS (|)
P/E (x)
FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E
49.6 56.6 54.2
7.1
6.6
6.9
-2.6
-0.4
0.7
NA
NA 167.0
4.0
6.6
9.1 53.2 31.8 23.2
4.3
7.3
8.8 17.4 10.3
8.5

EV/EBITDA (x)
FY15 FY16E FY17E
6.1
5.4
5.7
105.9
39.6 22.3
40.0
25.7 20.2
8.2
6.7
5.5

RoCE (%)
FY15 FY16E FY17E
6.3
7.2
6.9
-0.4
1.1
3.2
11.4 18.3 17.7
0.5
2.5
2.9

RoE (%)
FY15 FY16E FY17E
10.1 10.5
9.3
-20.5
-6.2
1.4
13.7 18.6 20.3
2.7
4.9
5.6

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 10

RATING RATIONALE

ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns

ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them
as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional
target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock.
Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction;
Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively;
Hold: Up to +/-10%;
Sell: -10% or more;

Pankaj Pandey

Head Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC,
Andheri (East)
Mumbai 400 093
research@icicidirect.com

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 11

ANALYST CERTIFICATION
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reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this
report.

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Page 12