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Engineering Geology
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/enggeo
a r t i c l e
i n f o
Article history:
Received 7 May 2013
Received in revised form 9 August 2013
Accepted 11 August 2013
Available online 30 August 2013
Keywords:
Acceleration
Arias intensity
Displacements
Earthquakes
Slope stability
Subduction zone
a b s t r a c t
Empirical studies of earthquake ground motions have developed relations between sliding displacement and
acceleration ratio and other parameters such as Arias intensity. Computations using strong motion records
from the Maule 2010 Chile M = 8.8 earthquake indicate that the published relations do not conform well to
the computed displacements, and some tend to be unconservative. Extensions to the empirical equations
incorporating Arias intensity are, if anything, less accurate. These results suggest that these empirical relations
may not apply to subduction zone events and indicate that further study using records from other recent
subduction zone events is appropriate. Examining the analytical solutions for sliding displacements induced by sinusoidal shaking and the denition of Arias intensity leads to an improved normalization for sliding displacements.
When this improved normalization is applied to the records from three different earthquakes in different parts of
Chile, the results are nearly identical, and the results for the Chi Chi and Northridge earthquakes are very close to
those from the Chilean events. Suggestions for practical use of the new normalization relations are provided.
2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
Estimating the displacements that occur when a potentially unstable
mass of soil or rock is shaken by earthquake stress waves can be a
difcult and daunting task. The amplitude, frequency content, and
duration of the incoming signal are often not well known, and even
probabilistic descriptions involve large uncertainties. The properties of
the soils and rocks are also known imperfectly. Furthermore, the entire
process of deformation and amplication is strongly non-linear. In such
a situation it is not surprising that engineers and seismologists have
resorted to simplied analytical methods, of which one of the most
widely used is the simplied sliding-block model (Newmark, 1965).
The sliding-block analysis assumes that the sliding mass rests on a
plane and that the shear strength of the interface between block and
plane is known. The strength can be frictional or non-frictional, and it
can be allowed to decrease as a function of the sliding displacement,
although most applications assume the strength is constant. The input
earthquake motion is an acceleration timehistory that describes the
motion of the plane. If at any time the block is at rest with respect to
the plane (that is, it is moving along with the plane) and the acceleration of the plane is less than the acceleration that can be transmitted
by the interface, the block continues to move along with the plane.
Once the acceleration of the plane exceeds a critical value, the block
begins to slide along the plane. It continues to slide until (a) the acceleration of the plane falls below the critical value ac and (b) frictional forces
Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 781 272 3196.
E-mail addresses: alfredo.urzua@bc.edu, prototypeengineering@comcast.net
(A. Urza), jtchrist36@comcast.net (J.T. Christian).
0013-7952/$ see front matter 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2013.08.005
between block and plane have slowed the relative sliding so that the
block and plane have the same absolute velocity. In effect, the motion
consists of a series of cumulative sliding pulses.
Although the sliding-block method is easily implemented on a
computer, the calculations can become tedious when the analysis is to
be used for zoning purposes. Jibson (2007), using a suite of accelerograms
from several earthquakes and referring to a series of computational studies described in his earlier papers and reports, proposed empirical relationships between the computed displacement, DR, and the ratio (ac/
amax) between the critical acceleration, ac, and the maximum acceleration
in the timehistory, amax. One possible shortcoming of these relations is
that they may not include information on many seismological parameters, such as magnitude, local intensity, duration, and dominant period.
Jibson proposed several modications to his basic empirical relation, in
particular incorporating the Arias (1970, 1973, 1993) intensity, dened as
Ia
2g
t
0
a d
238
deviation at each value of ac/amax. The solid lines are drawn through
the anti-logarithms of the means and means plus one standard
deviation of the logarithms of the results. Thus, the lower solid line is
the plot of the median displacements. The lines representing the
means plus one standard deviation of both the displacements and the
logarithms of the displacements are so close that they plot on top of
each other.
3. Existing empirical relationships
The empirical relationships used in this study are, in chronological
order, as follows:
3.1 Ambraseys and Menu (1988) proposed a simple relation using
only the acceleration ratio:
2:53
a
ac 1:09
log DR 0:90 log 1 c
0:30
a max
a max
DR 0:011P D kc
log DR 0:977P D 1:388kc 1:9586
P D I a =0
ln DR 0:222:83 ln ac 0:333 ln ac
The notation has been changed to agree with that of the present
paper. M is the moment magnitude of the earthquake, and is a
normally distributed error term with zero mean. In Eq. (5) and
subsequent equations ln () is the natural logarithm
3.4 Based on the work of Ambraseys and Menu (1988), Jibson (2007)
proposed this relation using only the acceleration ratio
2:341
a
ac 1:438
logDR 0:215 log 1 c
0:5106
a max
a max
Fig. 1. Results from sliding block analysis of Maule strong motions recordings together
with observed and proposed empirical relations. Asterisks are the computed results.
Dashed lines are the mean and mean plus of standard deviation of the results, and solid
lines are the mean and mean plus one standard deviation of the logarithms of the results.
The last term is the standard deviation of the regression. Incorporating Arias intensity in his regression, Jibson arrived at
log DR 0:561 log Ia 3:833 logac =a max 1:474 0:616 7
239
3.5 Saygili and Rathje (2008) and Rathje and Saygili (2008) proposed
six relations. The rst and simplest is
ac
ac 2
ac 3
20:39
42:61
ln DR 5:524:43
a max
a max
a max
ac 4
28:74
0:72 ln a max ln D
a max
8
In this equation is a standard normal variate with zero mean and
unit standard deviation, and lnD is the standard deviation of the
natural logarithm of the displacement. In the subsequent parts
of this paper, this is identied as Saygili and Rathje (2008) #1.
Their sixth relation incorporates both the period and the Arias
intensity:
ac
ac 2
ac 3
ln DR 4:274:62
46:53
21:49
a max
a max
a max
9
ac 4
31:66
0:57 ln a max 1:14 ln T
a max
0:86 ln Ia ln D
It is identied as Saygili and Rathje (2008) #6.
3.6 Rathje and Saygili (2009) proposed a relation incorporating the
magnitude of the earthquake
ac
ac 2
ac 3
42:49
19:64
ln DR 4:894:85
a max
a max
a max
ac 4
29:06
0:72 ln a max 0:89M6
a max
10
3.7 By incorporating data from the 1999 Chi Chi Taiwan earthquake
(M = 7.3) Hsieh and Lee (2011) proposed relations incorporating
Arias intensity for soil and rock sites. Their equation for rock sites is
log DR 0:788 log Ia 10:166 ac 5:95ac log I a 1:779
0:294
11
Fig. 2. Results from empirical relations compared to anti-logarithm of mean of the logarithms of the computed results from Maule 2010. The data points from Fig. 1 have been
removed for clarity.
3. For each equation and at each value of ac/amax, the mean of the
logarithms of the computed values of DR among the records were
computed.
4. Curves were drawn through the points computed in step 4. These are
the curves plotted in Fig. 2.
Major observations are that Jibson's revised equation incorporating
the Arias intensity provides a poor match to the computed results for
this event and that the Ambraseys and Menu relation ts the data
best, even though it is the oldest relation and is based on the least
data. Of the other proposals, the relation proposed by Bray and
Travasarou (2007) ts the computed results well at low values of the
acceleration ratio but deviates from the computed results at higher acceleration ratios, and that proposed by Saygili and Rathje (2008) ts
best at higher values of acceleration ratio but more poorly at low values.
Rathje and Saygili's (2009) relation recovers the slope of the computed
line well but is located substantially higher in the plot.
On November 16, 2007, an M = 7.7 earthquake occurred along the
northern portion of the offshore Chilean subduction zone, and 16
recordings of strong motion were made in the Tocopilla region of northern Chile. Similarly, 22 of the recordings of the March 3, 1985, M = 8.0
offshore earthquake, which has been named after Valparaiso. These recordings were processed in the same way as the Maule recordings. Fig. 3
shows the results for the Tocopilla data, and Fig. 4 does the same for the
Valparaiso data. The histograms for seismic parameters for the three
Chilean earthquakes are in Appendix A.
Figs. 2, 3, and 4 show that there is a great deal of scatter in the predictions of the empirical equations. Relations that agree well with the
data for one event, such as the AmbraseysMenu equation in Fig. 2, do
poorly for other sets of recordings. None of the empirical relationships
is consistently good or poor.
It should be noted that all these relations have dimensional irregularities. Those expressed in terms of the dimensionless acceleration
ratio alone do not incorporate parameters describing the intensity or
duration of the strong motion. Those that do incorporate other parameters do so in ways that do not preserve dimensions such as velocity,
displacement, or time. It would be desirable to have a truly rational dimensionless expression that incorporates more strong motion parameters than the acceleration ratio.
240
Fig. 3. Results from empirical relations compared to anti-logarithm of mean of the logarithms of the computed results from Tocopilla 2007. The data points from Fig. 1 have
been removed for clarity.
Fig. 5. Sliding displacement during single sinusoidal pulse (after Yegian et al., 1991).
equations. In most practical cases of actual sliding the value of the acceleration ratio will be between 0.05 and 0.5, a range where Fig. 5 shows the
logarithm of f(ac/amax) is nearly linear.
It should be noted that the solution for sliding-block displacement
for any prescribed shape of input accelerogram must have the functional form of Eq. (12). The specic composition of the function f(ac/amax)
depends on the details of the shape of the input motion. As mentioned
above, Yegian et al. (1991) gave solutions for the cases of sequences of
sinusoidal, rectangular, and triangular wave trains. Solutions could be
developed for a series of Dirac delta functions or any other shape of
accelerogram. The details of the function f(ac/amax) may be quite
complicated, but all solutions will be of the form of Eq. (12). The fact
leads to a suggestion for a rational way to improve the dimensionless
relations between sliding displacements and acceleration ratios. The
sinusoidal input is the obvious starting point.
For a sinusoidal acceleration pulse of period T and amplitude amax,
the Arias intensity is
Ia
2g
t
0
jaj d
2g
t
0
13
Integrating over a single period gives the Arias intensity for a single
pulse:
Ia
2
a
T
4g max
14
2
NgTK a
4
15
Substituting Eq. (15) into Eq. (12) and performing some algebraic
manipulation yields
I T
16
DR f ac =a max a
Ka
Fig. 4. Results from empirical relations compared to anti-logarithm of mean of the logarithms of the computed results from Valparaiso 1985. The data points from Fig. 1 have
been removed for clarity.
In other words, a rational way to normalize the computed or estimated sliding displacements in a dimensionless plot is to divide the
computed values by the bracketed term in Eq. (16), which has units of
displacement.
241
17
Table 1 contains the values of the parameters for each case, as well as
the parameters for all three sets of records taken together. The results
for the three events fall so close to each other that, for engineering
purposes, Eq. (17) could be simplied to
log DN 0:14:3ac =a max
18
This procedure gives results for the median lines that are identical to
what would be obtained by regressing on all the data, but the intermediate step reveals how close the normalized median relations are to a
straight line. As Fig. 6 demonstrates, the relations are already very close
to linear, so it is not surprising that the values of R2 for the regressions
to obtain the straight lines of Fig. 7 are all either 0.997 or 0.998. When
Case
0.124509
+0.040330
0.289348
0.050656
+0.077725
0.179036
0.120225
+0.055346
0.295797
0.101725
+0.059039
0.262429
4.26177
4.12274
4.40080
4.32436
4.01717
4.63156
4.29918
4.18101
4.41734
4.29435
4.11832
4.47038
242
Fig. 8. Results for Maule, Tocopilla, Valparaiso, Chi Chi, and Northridge records plotted as
in Fig. 7.
An alternative case arises when it is desired to limit the sliding displacements to a value such as 100 cm. Then the designer divides the
limiting displacement by the bracketed term to obtain a dimensionless
displacement and enters Fig. 7 from the left to obtain the limiting
acceptable value of the acceleration ratio.
9. Conclusions
Applying the sliding-block analysis to strong motion timehistories
recorded in the Maule area during the 2010 earthquake, in the Tocopilla
area during the 2007 earthquake, and in Valparaiso during the 1985
earthquake indicates that the previously proposed empirical relations
between sliding displacement and acceleration ratio do not agree well
with computed results. The agreement is not signicantly improved
when the Arias intensity is incorporated in the empirical equations to
account for duration effects. It appears that the empirical relations do
243
Acknowledgments
Alejandro Contreras and Patricio Pineda helped in obtaining the records, and Dr. Rodolfo Saragoni made his papers available.
244
The bars over variables indicate the means. All the x terms are independent of the normalization factor. Each of the y terms is as follows:
n
n
1X
1X
Di
A
n i1
n i1
n
1X
Di A
Di A
n i1
n
1X
Di
Di
n i1
yi y Di A
B:4
0 y1 x
yi
m
m
m
1X
1X
1X
log10 Dij A j
log10 Dij
log10 A j
m j1
m j1
m j1
B:1
To simplify further the notation on the right hand side of this equation, call the rst term Di and the second A, and call the acceleration
ratio xi, or
m
1X
log10 Dij
m j1
m
1X
log10 A j
A
m j1
Di
B:2
yi Di A
xi ac =a max i
i1
n
X
i1
B:3
2
xi x
B:5
Engineering Geology
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/enggeo
a r t i c l e
i n f o
Article history:
Received 28 April 2014
Received in revised form 9 August 2014
Accepted 12 August 2014
Available online 20 August 2014
Keywords:
Acceleration
Arias intensity
Displacements
Earthquakes
Slope stability
Subduction zone
a b s t r a c t
The horizontal seismic loading coefcient is an essential input in evaluating the seismic adequacy of slopes, such
as those in open-pit mines and natural slopes. In some cases, the coefcient is established through dynamic nite
element analyses, which are time-consuming and require a new analysis for each facility, including a new suite of
accelerograms. The values of the coefcient are sometimes incorporated in design manuals, but the procedures
for establishing the values are seldom transparent. The usual situation is that the values arise from consensus, experience, and previous practice. In this paper, the UrzaChristian model for normalized sliding displacement has
been extended to develop the critical acceleration value corresponding to the probability of observing prescribed
amounts of sliding displacement. The method has been applied to two sets of data based on probabilistic seismic
hazard analyses. The results show that, to satisfy the criterion that there must be 0.1 probability of the sliding displacement exceeding 100 cm if a maximum credible earthquake (MCE) occurs, the critical acceleration must be
approximately 0.13 g. This means that a slope with these parameters in this environment must be stable enough
that a horizontal acceleration of 0.13 g is necessary to put it in a state of sliding motion. In the case of the operational basis earthquake (OBE), which is a much smaller ground motion, the criterion of 0.1 probability of
100 cm of sliding is achieved for a slope with a critical acceleration of 0.35 g.
2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
The horizontal seismic loading coefcient is an essential input in
evaluating the seismic adequacy of slopes, such as those in open-pit
mines and natural slopes. The coefcient is usually expressed as a fraction of the acceleration of gravity and is multiplied by the weight of a
potential sliding mass to give a horizontal force on the sliding mass.
When the force is applied as a static load, the result is called a pseudostatic analysis because it does not include actual dynamic behavior but
replaces it with an equivalent static problem. The static horizontal
load factor is usually designated Ka.
In some cases, the coefcient is established through dynamic nite
element analyses, but these procedures are time-consuming and require a new analysis for each facility, including a new suite of ground
motion records. Values of the coefcient are sometimes incorporated
in design manuals, but the procedures for establishing these values
are seldom transparent. The usual situation is that the Ka values arise
from consensus, experience, and previous practice. This paper proposes
a rational way to establish the seismic coefcient.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2014.08.011
0013-7952/ 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
242
Southern California. Bray and Travasarou (2009) also proposed a method for estimating ac in terms of acceptable displacement and seismic demand. Urza and Christian (2013) describe a number of other proposed
methods to estimate seismic displacement and, by implication, to estimate ac from the acceptable displacement.
2. The UrzaChristian analysis of seismic records
Urza and Christian (2013) computed the sliding displacement from
suites of strong-motion records made during three Chilean offshore
subduction zone earthquakes. The suite from the 1985 M = 7.8 earthquake was recorded in the Valparaiso region, the suite from the
2007 M = 7.7 earthquake in the Tocopilla region, and the suite from
the 2010 M = 8.8 earthquake in the Maule region. The suites represent
not only three different events but also three different regions of Chile:
Maule in the south, Valparaiso in the central region, and Tocopilla in the
north. Using the sliding block method (Newmark, 1965; Yegian et al.,
1991), Urza and Christian computed the sliding displacements for
each accelerogram and for a range of values of the ratio between the
critical acceleration for the slope (ac) and the maximum acceleration
in the record (amax).The critical acceleration is usually the horizontal
acceleration just necessary to reduce the pseudo-static factor of safety
to unity or less. There are several published relations between ac/amax
and estimated displacements, but the sliding displacements predicted
by those relations do not always correspond well with the displacements computed from the three sets of records (see Urza and
Christian, 2013 for references).
The proposed method started with the closed form solution for the
sliding-block displacement for cyclic input motion (Yegian et al., 1991):
h
i
2
DR f ac =amax amax NT
usually agreed that values of ac/amax N 0.5 are not of engineering interest (Franklin and Chang, 1977). When it is necessary to consider values
of ac/amax N 0.5 or to design against sliding displacements on the order
of centimeters, the present methodology could be extended to include
the non-linear portion of the function in Fig. 1, but at the cost of additional computational complexity.
The second input to the revised method is the Arias (1970) intensity,
dened as
Ia
t
0
a d
2g
t
0
jaj d
2g
t
0
Integrating over a single period gives the Arias intensity for a single
pulse:
Ia
2g
2
a T
4g max
2
NgTK a
4
Substituting Eq. (5) into Eq. (1) and performing some algebraic manipulation yields
I T
DR hac =amax a
Ka
Fig. 1. Sliding displacement during a single sinusoidal pulse (after Yegian et al., 1991).
(1) A series of ten values of (ac/amax) was selected, starting with 0.05
and increasing in units of 0.05 to a nal value of 0.5.
(2) The values of amax, Ia, and T were computed for each
accelerogram.
(3) The sliding block analysis was performed for each value of (ac/
amax) and for each accelerogram. The analyses were run twice:
once with the signs of the accelerations in the original sense
and once with them reversed.
(4) The cumulative displacement in each case was divided by (IaT/
Ka) and the results plotted with a logarithmic vertical axis as dimensionless displacements DN.
(5) For each value of (ac/amax) the mean and the standard deviation
of the log10 DN were computed.
(6) After calculations had been completed for all values of (ac/amax),
straight lines were run through the ten sets of values of the mean
and the mean plus and minus one standard deviation of log10 DN.
Fig. 2. Normalized displacement from three suites of recordings (after Urza and Christian,
2013)
243
Fig. 3. Normalized displacement including records from Chi Chi and Northridge.
Table 1 shows the values of the coefcients for the three suites of records combined. The normalization procedure requires that a value of
the period T be established for each record. There are several ways to estimate the principal period of an accelerogram. They include the period
at the peak of the response spectrum, the most signicant period of the
Fourier spectrum, various averages of these periods, and the inverse of
the zero-crossing frequency. Each has advantages and disadvantages.
The most important consideration is that the same denition be used
in processing the records to develop the parameters of Eq. (7) and in
selecting the normalizing value used in Eq. (6). In the present case T,
was computed as the period at the peak of the response spectrum.
Fig. 3 shows the results when the method is applied to suites of records
from the three large Chilean earthquakes as well as those from the January 21, 1999, Chi Chi earthquake (M = 7.6) and the January 17, 1994,
Northridge earthquake (M = 6.7). The results are similar, although the
values of the parameters 0 and 1 differ by small amounts, reecting
the differences in local geology and in the style of the basic earthquake
motion.
To use this plot, one rst estimates the ratio ac/amax and then enters
Fig. 2 to obtain the normalized displacement. The three lines represent
the mean or estimated displacement, the mean plus one standard deviation, and the mean minus one standard deviation. The normalized displacement is then multiplied by (IaT/Ka) to obtain the displacement in
Table 1
Values of parameters for Eq. (1).
Case
+0.322958
+0.398959
+0.246956
4.29435
3.97092
4.61778
Fig. 4. Replotted sliding displacements for OII landll (after Kavazanjian et al., 2013)
244
parameters enter the calculation: ac, amax, Ia, T, and , which governs the
selection of a relation from Fig. 2. Because amax = Kag, Ka is not an independent parameter.
The rst step is to develop a computational procedure for calculating
the permanent horizontal sliding displacement DR from an input set of
ac, amax, Ia, T, and and then to use this routine repeatedly to evaluate
the statistical parameters of DR. The rst parameter, ac, is a function of
the geometry of the slope and the strength properties of the soils and
rocks comprising the slope. For the simple case of an innite slope inclined at an angle and composed of a frictional material with friction
angle , the critical acceleration is
ac g tan tan
More complicated geometries and soil properties will lead to more complicated relations for ac, which can be obtained from slope stability analyses, but the uncertainty in the value of ac will depend essentially on
the uncertainty in the geometry of the slope, the strength properties,
and the location of the phreatic surface. The statistical properties of ac
are independent of amax, Ia, T, and . Uncertainties in the values of amax,
Ia, and T must be established by analysis of seismic accelerograms combined with probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Fig. 2 shows
that, for a particular acceleration ratio, the normalized relation for Dr is
log-normally distributed with the means and standard deviations plotted
in the gure. The parameter is a standard normal variate that identies
the dimensionless equation for log10 Dr. In the case of a exible earth dam
or tailings structure, the embankment itself modies the input seismic excitation, changing the period of the motion, modifying the peak acceleration, and introducing damping. Many current procedures deal with these
effects by simply prescribing the motion at the crest. The present results
are based on the assumption that the input motions affect the rigid sliding
mass directly, but further study is required to arrive at denite
conclusions.
Once the procedure for calculating the dimensioned Dr is in place,
Monte Carlo simulation can be used to generate a statistical description
of Dr for the full range of input parameters. Experimentation revealed
that using 10,000 samples gives stable results, but identifying the values
of DR at low probabilities requires much larger suites of at least
1,000,000. Plots of the histograms of the values of Dr indicate that the central portion of the distribution is well represented by the log-normal distribution, but the tails are not. Therefore, the log-normal distribution
derived from the mean and standard deviation of the results should not
be used to estimate the displacements at the tails of the distribution. Instead, it is necessary to count the proportion of samples with displacements exceeding a given value.
Table 3
Correlation matrix.
ac
amax
Ia
T
ac
amax
Ia
1.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
1.000
0.967
0.025
0.000
0.967
1.000
0.133
0.000
0.025
0.133
1.000
Saragoni (2009). The data are presented at the precision given in their
tables. Ruiz and Saragoni do not give values of the uncertainties for
these parameters, but the peak acceleration and Arias intensity in the
table are conservative values already incorporating a large part of the
uncertainty. The coefcients of variation (COV) should also represent
variability at or near a particular site and not the variability over an entire region. Taking all these factors into account indicates that values of
0.20 are appropriate for this example. If the methodology is applied to
an actual situation, both the conservatism in the estimates of the
means and the accuracy of the COVs must be addressed. Examination
of the suites of accelerograms indicates that a smaller COV of 0.1 is appropriate for the T parameter. Statistical analysis of the three suites of
accelerograms reveals the correlation structure among the logarithms
of these three parameters listed in Table 3. The correlations between T
and the other two parameters are small and probably do not affect the
results, but that between amax and Ia is too large to be ignored.
The values of the mean of ac were set to 0.025, 0.050, 0.075, 0.100,
0.150, 0.200, 0.250, 0.300, 0.350, and 0.400 g for the MCE analyses. However, the mean values did not exceed 0.150 g in the OBE analyses because the basic relation in Fig. 2 is not valid for values of ac/amax
greater than 0.5 and the mean of amax is 0.29 g.
5. Results
For the MCE, Fig. 5 shows the probability of exceeding the sliding displacement values. Each line corresponds to a particular mean value of ac.
Note that ac is expressed in units of the acceleration of gravity, g. An example use of this plot is to assume that we want to know the critical acceleration factor ac that would give a 0.01 probability of exceeding 100 cm of
sliding displacement. The plot shows that this corresponds to a mean ac
of approximately 0.19 g. The criterion of 100 cm or 3 ft of movement
seems to be commonly used in a variety of conditions such as earth
dams and waste landlls (e.g., Kavazanjian et al., 2013). Different criteria
Table 2
Parametric values used in analyses.
Parameter
MCE
OBE
Mean
COV
Mean
COV
ac
amax
Ia
T
Varies
0.824 g
2003 cm/s
0.13 s
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
Varies
0.290 g
536.6 cm/s
0.13 s
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
Parameter
Mean
Standard deviation
0
1
0.101725
4.29435
0.160764
0.17603
Fig. 7. Normalized displacement including records from Chi Chi and Northridge.
245
246
6. Conclusions
The UrzaChristian model for normalized sliding displacement has
been extended to develop a probabilistically based method of determining the critical acceleration value corresponding to the probability of observing prescribed amounts of sliding displacement.
The method has been applied to data developed from seismic hazard
studies for particular locations in Chile. Other sets of parameters can be
developed for other specic site conditions.
For the parameters used in the sample analysis and the requirement
that there be 0.1 probability of 100 cm of sliding displacement, a critical
acceleration value of 0.13 g is found for the MCE. This means that a slope
with these parameters in this environment must be stable enough that a
horizontal acceleration of 0.13 g is necessary to put it in a state of sliding
motion. In the case of the OBE, which is a much smaller ground motion,
the criterion of 0.1 probability of 100 cm of sliding is achieved for a slope
with a critical acceleration of 0.035 g.
Further analyses for different conditions and assumptions should be
carried out to understand better the implications of the model.
References
Arias, A., 1970. A measure of earthquake intensity. In: Hansen, R.J. (Ed.), Seismic Design
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DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0001238
There are many empirical relations for estimating sliding displacements caused by seismic excitation of a mass resting on a rigid
plane. Usually the accelerograms from a suite of earthquakes are
input to a Newmark sliding block analysis, and regression analysis of the displacements against a set of parameters gives the
empirical relation. When the relations are applied to accelerograms from events not in the original database, the accuracy of
the predictions varies considerably (Urza and Christian 2013).
Combining an analytical expression for the Arias intensity of a
sinusoid with the sliding block displacement for sinusoidal input,
Urza and Christian (2013) obtained the following estimate of
displacements:
log10 DN b0 b1 ac =amax
DR DN
Ia T
Ka
(1)
have slightly greater scatter. Nevertheless, the results are close and
support the basic soundness of the model.
How close the new results are to those predicted by the earlier
lines can be appreciated by considering the estimated displacements
in centimeters. A report for a site in Chile proposes that the maximum credible earthquake has Ia 5 2,000 cm=s, T 5 0:13, and
Ka 5 0:8g. When these parameters and the original b0 and b1 values
are used in Eq. (1) for a slope with critical acceleration ac 5 0:2g,
the median computed sliding displacement is 50 cm. The b0 and b1
values from the 2014 Iquique earthquakes give 58 cm. In view of the
many recognized limitations of the sliding block model, these results
are remarkably close.
Implications
In summary, processing the accelerograms from the Iquique earthquake and a large aftershock gives estimates of computed sliding
displacements that are very close to those derived from the earlier
sets of records. This supports the accuracy and robustness of the
basic log-linear model.
References
Urza, A., and Christian, J. T. (2013). Sliding displacements due to
subduction-zone earthquakes. Eng. Geol., 166(Nov), 237244.
02814002-1