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[DAILY PETROSPECTIVE] June 7, 2010
Early Evening Market Review for Monday
Even though the numbers above show the last prices, rather than
the settlements, we now know that July crude ended Monday’s
session with a 7‐cent loss in a quiet trading day during which traders
covered shorts and tried to figure out what shoe would drop next.
Investors, those holding oil as an asset, seem to have been liquidating
long positions nearer the day’s highs, while traders who had gotten
short ‐ based on heavy supplies in the oil market ‐ were lightly
covering, taking profits and talking about events in the US Gulf, where
the BP oil spill continues to taint the picture moving forward for
offshore drilling.
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CAMERON HANOVER
[DAILY PETROSPECTIVE] June 7, 2010
The story that seems to have gained the most currency during yesterday’s trading was that prices were
weak in follow‐through selling from Friday. As we ended last week, the DJIA had been under heavy selling
pressure and the euro was getting clobbered. The dollar broke to fresh, recent highs against the euro on
Friday, traded higher in very early trading Sunday night into Monday morning, and then eased back near
unchanged (aghainst Friday’s finish) before rallying lightly on Monday afternoon. It took the scenic route to a
slightly higher close.
The stock market followed a slightly similar pattern as the euro. It was lightly higher in the early afternoon,
after having been weaker in much earlier, follow‐through selling. But, it could not hold onto the day’s gains
and by the final bell at 4 PM, the DJIA was down another 115.48 to 9,816.48.
The bottom line is that Friday’s look at May’s unemployment numbers was just not bullish enough to
convince people that the economic
recovery is on sound legs moving DOE Expectations
forward. While we did not hear Category Dow Jones Bloomberg Reuters
people talking specifically about Crude Oil dn 1.000 dn 1.900 dn 0.900 mln bbls
“W” bottom’s or another leg lower Distillate up 0.200 up 1.000 up 0.600
on Monday, there was plenty of talk Gasoline up 0.300 unchanged up 0.100
centering on how weak the Utilization unchanged unchanged unchanged
economy is here.
Add to the economic uncertainty of the recovery a plentiful supply of oil and abundant amounts in storage,
and it is difficult to paint a terribly bullish picture. One can see from the numbers above that most analysts are
looking for a large draw in crude oil stocks and only minor builds in refined products, but inventories are still
well above where they were two years ago. Demand seems to be improving, but it will rquire a good amount
of steadily improving demand to eat into storage levels holding 34.5 million barrels more distillate, 6.0 million
barrels more gasoline and 60.0 million barrels more crude oil than we had at this point two years ago.
The UN Security Council was scheduled to meet on Monday afternoon into evening to discuss sanctions on
Iran. The US is hoping to have a vote taken by the middle of the week. Iran, meanwhile, has gotten involved
with the “Gaza relief” convoy, which some Americans feel Iran may be using for less than “benign” purposes.
In the past, Iran has been accused of using international events to overshadow sanctions.
Crude Oil Daily Technical Chart
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