HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

Aug 02, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

VIEW POINT

MAJOR CURRENCY
Close
USDINR
DXY INDX
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
DG USDINR

66.754
95.752
1.117
1.319
102.450
67.245

Prev.
Close
66.744
95.713
1.116
1.318
102.390
67.245

Chg.
0.010
0.039
0.001
0.001
0.060
0.000

% Chg.
0.02%
0.04%
0.08%
0.06%
0.06%
0.00%

GLOBAL INDICES
Close
SGX NIFTY
NIFTY
SENSEX
HANG-SENG
NIKKEI
SHANGHAI
S&P INDEX
DOW JONES
NASDAQ
FTSE
CAC
DAX

8669.0
8636.6
28003.1
22129.1
16522.5
2954.1
2170.8
18404.5
5184.2
6694.0
4409.2
10330.5

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY
Segment
EQUITY

Prev.
Close
8688.0
8638.5
28051.9
21891.4
16635.8
2953.4
2173.6
18432.2
5162.1
6724.4
4439.8
10337.5

Chg.
-19
-2
-49
238
-113
1
-3
-28
22
-30
-31
-7

(Provisional Rs. In Cr)

27-Jul-16
405

26-Jul-16
671

% Chg.
-0.22%
-0.02%
-0.17%
1.09%
-0.68%
0.03%
-0.13%
-0.15%
0.43%
-0.45%
-0.69%
-0.07%

USDINR closes at 7-week high; Violates 200 DMA Support

The Indian rupee on Monday strengthened for the fifth consecutive
session to hit over seven-week high against the US dollar after foreign
institutional investors (FIIs) continued to buy equities and bonds in the
local markets on hopes that the government may pass goods and
services tax (GST) bill on Wednesday.
USDINR pair has violated the crucial support of the long term trend
line and 200 DMA, which acted as a reversal point many times in the
history. Current technical developments indicate that Dollar has
entered in to medium to long term bear trend against Rupee.
It is expected that GST bill will list in Rajya Sabha on Wednesday.
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) formally signalled the countdown to the
final battle on the constitutional amendment bill. On Monday it issued a
whip to its 53 members in the upper house, wherein they will have to
be present in the house for the next three days.
So far this year, the rupee is down 0.88%, while FIIs have bought
$4.65 billion in equity and sold $887.5 million in debt markets. The
dollar index, which measures the US currencys strength against major
currencies, closed at 95.75, with minor gain against the huge fall seen
on Fridays session.
Chinas factory gauge from Caixin Media and Markit Economics jumped
to 50.6 in July from 48.6 in June, data showed on Monday, while an
official measure dropped to 49.9.
US gross domestic product (GDP) increased at 1.2% annual rate in the
April-June period, less than half of a 2.6% growth rate economists had
expected. Markets took the data to mean the US Federal Reserve was
nowhere near policy tightening, even after it had appeared last week
to have opened the door to a rate hike later this year by saying nearterm risks to the economy had diminished.
The disappointing data lessened expectations for an early interest rate
rise from the Federal Reserve.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
USDINR Aug Future Daily Chart

USDINR SPOT DAILY CHART

200DMA and
Trend line Support Violated

Technical Observations

Pair has broken down below crucial support of its 200 DMA placed at 66.82

Pair has broken down below the support of upward sloping trend line, drawn on the above chart

Recent down move has also resulted in to bearish head and shoulder pattern on the daily chart, Target of pattern comes at 65.20.

Short term support for the pair is seen at 66.55, while resistance for the same would remain at 67.42.

Considering the technical evidences discussed above, we believe that rupee can appreciate against dollar to the extent of 65.20, which
is huge swing, Stop loss in the short positions should be kept at 67.43.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS
Aug Month

Last

S3

S2

S1

R1

R2

R3

USDINR

67.05

66.87

66.92

66.98

67.10

67.15

67.22

EURINR

74.92

74.68

74.76

74.84

75.00

75.08

75.16

GBPINR

88.44

87.60

87.98

88.21

88.81

89.19

89.42

JPYINR

65.52

65.05

65.17

65.34

65.63

65.75

65.93

Spot

Wkly
High

Wkly
Low

1-Mth.
High

1-Mth.
Low

52 Wk
High

52 Wk
Low

5 DMA

20 DMA

50 DMA

100 DMA

200 DMA

USDINR

67.27

67.05

68.22

66.70

68.79

63.72

67.04

67.16

67.24

66.98

66.83

EURINR

74.48

73.81

76.82

73.63

77.49

69.19

74.22

74.35

75.02

75.11

74.11

GBPINR

89.19

87.81

100.49

86.35

105.28

86.35

88.14

88.33

92.83

94.25

96.35

JPYINR

63.76

62.64

68.11

62.64

68.11

51.06

64.46

64.54

63.85

62.23

59.34

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open

High

Low

Close

Chg.

Vol

Vol Chg

Open
Interest

Chg.

SPOT USDINR

66.77

66.79

66.70

66.74

-0.25

--

--

--

--

USDINR Aug FUT.

67.09

67.09

66.97

67.05

-0.24

1498538

311176

1107046

405446

SPOT EURINR

74.67

74.68

74.44

74.48

0.05

--

--

--

--

EURINR Aug FUT.

74.92

75.00

74.84

74.92

0.09

62223

759

39181

-15396

SPOT GBPINR

88.48

88.50

87.88

87.92

-0.36

--

--

--

--

GBPINR Aug FUT.

88.82

88.96

88.35

88.44

-0.28

47530

4051

61023

-4438

SPOT JPYINR

65.28

65.37

65.05

65.31

0.59

--

--

--

--

JPYINR Aug FUT.

65.30

65.58

65.29

65.52

0.39

44809

5055

36811

-64872

Currency

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

ECO. DATA RELEASED

Date Time

08/01/2016 06:30
08/01/2016 06:30
08/01/2016 07:15
08/01/2016 07:30
08/01/2016 10:30
08/01/2016 17:00
08/01/2016 19:30

Country

CH
CH
CH
JN
IN
IN
US

Event

Period

Manufacturing PMI
Non-manufacturing PMI
Caixin China PMI Mfg
Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg
Nikkei India PMI Mfg
Eight Infrastructure Industries
ISM Manufacturing

Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul F
Jul
Jun
Jul

Survey

Actual

Prior

50
-48.8
---53

49.9
53.9
50.6
49.3
51.8
5.20%
--

50
53.7
48.6
49
51.7
2.80%
53.2

Period

Survey

Prior

42
44
0.40%
-3.40%
0.30%
0.30%
0.20%
0.20%
0.90%
0.10%
1.60%
--

41.8
46
0.60%
-3.90%
0.20%
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.90%
0.20%
1.60%
45.4

ECO. DATA TODAY

Date Time

08/02/2016 10:30
08/02/2016 14:00
08/02/2016 14:30
08/02/2016 14:30
08/02/2016 18:00
08/02/2016 18:00
08/02/2016 18:00
08/02/2016 18:00
08/02/2016 18:00
08/02/2016 18:00
08/02/2016 18:00
08/02/2016 19:15

Country

JN
UK
EC
EC
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
US

Event

Consumer Confidence Index

Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI
PPI MoM
PPI YoY
Personal Income
Personal Spending
Real Personal Spending
PCE Deflator MoM
PCE Deflator YoY
PCE Core MoM
PCE Core YoY
ISM New York

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

Jul
Jul
Jun
Jun
Jun
Jun
Jun
Jun
Jun
Jun
Jun
Jul

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
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Disclosure:
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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]