Applied Mathematical Modelling 37 (2013) 78397854

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Applied Mathematical Modelling

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/apm

The application of a mathematical model of sustainability to the

results of a semi-quantitative Environmental Impact
Assessment of two iron ore opencast mines in Iran
Jason Phillips
Camborne School of Mines, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Cornwall Campus, Penryn TR10 9EZ, United Kingdom

a r t i c l e

i n f o

Article history:
Received 10 April 2012
Received in revised form 4 December 2012
Accepted 1 March 2013
Available online 16 March 2013
Keywords:
Sustainable development
Environmental Impact Assessment
Mathematical model
Opencast mining
Iron ore
Iran

a b s t r a c t
The paper outlines the application of a mathematical model of sustainability to an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) of two opencast iron ore mines in Iran. The models application to the EIA, which used the Folchi method, was undertaken for the purpose of
indicating the potential level and nature of sustainability (if appropriate) of the two mines.
The results indicated that both Chogart and Gol-e-Gohar iron ore mine were deemed to
be potentially unsustainable. The results suggests the delicate balance and failure of
achieving some form of sustainability in regards to mining in Iran, due to the impacts it
has upon the local environment and community affected. The paper concludes as to the
potential signicance of the models application in the attainment of the goal of sustainable
mining.
2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction sustainable development and mining

1.1. Impacts of mining
It is widely accepted that there are three key pillars to the concept and implementation of sustainable development
environmental, social and economic. The mining industry creates impacts (positive and negative) which are environmental,
social and economic in nature [1]. Consequently, sustainable development is of relevance to the mining industry [1].
The environmental, social and economic impacts of mining are extensively documented in the literature, and it is not necessary to expand on this in any great detail, but rather summarise the principal issues concerned. The positive impacts of
mining are considered to be: (1) Technological development through improved machinery and methods [2]; (2) Employment
and development of a highly skilled and knowledgeable workforce [2]; (3) Essential raw materials for a large number of
industries [3,2]; (4) Employment and use of other professionals and services, such as lawyers, economists, investors etc.
[4,1,2]; and (5) Source of wealth to governments through the collection of taxes, royalties and levies [1,2].
However, the negative impacts associated with mining are fundamentally: (1) Pollution and damage of the environment
through: deforestation; acid mine drainage; noise; dust; discharges from ore processing of cyanide, mercury and arsenic to
air and water sources; acid gas emissions; solid waste production; and efuent contamination [5,6,1,2]; (2) Climate change
impacts through energy consumption [6,2]; (3) Social disorganisation, loss of livelihoods and mass displacement [5,2]; and
(4) Loss of utility and visual amenities [6,2].

E-mail address: jp1@tiscali.co.uk

0307-904X/$ - see front matter 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apm.2013.03.029

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J. Phillips / Applied Mathematical Modelling 37 (2013) 78397854

In addition, the other fundamental issue related to sustainable development is the extraction and utilisation of nonrenewable resources. Worrall et al. [1] highlights the fact that all mineral resources are nite and non-renewable over time
in respect to humanity. Consequently mining, certainly in respect to the extraction of the nite resources of the Earth, is
inherently unsustainable [7].
1.2. The response of the mining industry
The mining industry has focussed on improving its environmental and social performance as the means to improve its
record on these issues, as well as a mechanism to become more efcient and economic in its operations. The business case
for sustainable development in the mining industry, as highlighted by the Mining, Minerals and Sustainable Development
report [2], was a key argument for improving the industrys standing on environmental and social issues. The business case
made by the MMSD report [2] was as follows:
 Lower labour costs and more innovative solutions
Visible evidence of Corporate Social Responsibility
Alignment of corporate and employee values
Benets: Better motivation; Job satisfaction; Higher productivity; More innovation; Workforce creativity; Fewer trade
union disputes
 Lower health costs
Social Infrastructure leading to reductions in health hazards
Benets: Higher productivity; Reduced compensation and damage claims; Lower penalties for non-compliance;
Reduced costs to social services and medication
 Easier Access to Lenders and Insurers, and Preferential Loan and Insurance Rates
Lower risks which leads to lower insurance costs or loan rates.
 Best Practice Inuence on Regulation
Inuence of best practice in regulatory changes or standards set.
Competitive advantage gained over competitors
Creditability gained with regulators.
Consequently, as noted by McCullough and Lund [8], the mining industry has worked towards reducing its operational
risks and maintaining its social license to mine the resources of a community through a variety of strategies. These are focussed around the concept of sustainable development by the creation of sustainable livelihoods (employment, community
development, and infrastructure); resource optimisation; and the minimisation of environmental and social impacts after
the closure of the mine [8].
1.3. Sustainable mining
Sustainable mining commonly refers to the evaluation and management of uncertainties and risks associated with
earth resource development [9]. However, the concept and implementation of sustainable development continues to
be debated signicantly in the literature. Consequently, the mining industry needed a clear framework for establishing
and managing sustainable development in regards to the relevant environmental, social and economic (and political) issues associated with mining. Therefore, the mining industry from the 1990s onwards began a process to implement
sustainable development (Fig. 1), and in which the development and publication of the Mining, Minerals and
Sustainable Development report [2] was the key stepping stone. Other initiatives that came out of the mining
industrys concern and desire to implement sustainable development included the formation of the International Council
on Mining and Metals (ICMM); the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI); and the Mining Certication Evaluation Project
(MCEP) [10].
However, the term of sustainable mining, which has come to the forefront by the mining industry, can be deemed as
oxymoronic in nature [7,11,12]. Horowitz [10] states nevertheless that sustainable mining is not necessarily antithetical,
as there is a strong business case to undertaking good environmental and social management as a means to make more efcient operations. Therefore, effective assessment and management of sustainability issues is required.
1.4. Sustainability assessment and interpretation
In regards to sustainability assessment and interpretation, a major weakness is that the term is often used interchangeable with environmental management and environmental protection [13]. Consequently, many assessments focus on environmental protection with little mention of socio-economic issues [13]. However, there is a tool that can be used which
evaluates all of the relevant issues pertinent to sustainable development Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA).
With sustainable development increasingly being viewed as the desirable outcome, there is growing interest in being
able to predict whether or not initiatives will contribute to sustainable development [14]. Because of this, EIAs are the
favoured approach to the assessment and evaluation of the impacts of mining projects [15]. Recent developments and

J. Phillips / Applied Mathematical Modelling 37 (2013) 78397854

7841

Fig. 1. Timeline of sustainable development and the mining industry (adapted from Worrall et al. [1]).

improvements in EIA methodologies have provided more quantitative-based evaluations to determine the impacts of mining
operations, e.g. [1619]. However, the interpretation of sustainable development is still predominantly based on a subjective
interpretation and evaluation. Because of this, Phillips [2022], was motivated to develop a mathematical model of sustainable development to dene the fundamentals of sustainable development, and the ability to initially apply it to quantitativebased EIAs in order to determine the level and nature of sustainable development of projects/operations. The latter has been
demonstrated and highlighted in Phillips [20,27]. In this paper, the application of the model is extended to evaluating the
level and nature of two opencast iron ore mines in Iran, based upon the EIA conducted by Monjezi et al. [28] adopting
the Folchi method [29] as the assessment methodology.

2. Methodology
2.1. The Folchi method
2.1.1. Outline
The Folchi method was rst applied to a mining operation in Sardinia, Italy in 2003. This was to quantify the environmental impact of mining by drilling and blasting of a borrow pit for gravity dam [29]. The method consists of seven stages, as
stated and based on Folchi [29]:
1. Characterise the pre-existing environmental context in terms of geology, geotechnics, hydrology, weather, economy etc.;
2. Identify the impacting factors, which are those factors associated with mining which could change the pre-existing environment components (Table 1);
3. Dening the possible ranges for the magnitude of the variation caused by each impacting factor (Table 2);
4. Determine the environmental components whose pre-existing condition may be modied due to mining, and denoted as
the mining environment. The mining environment are parameters of environmental and socio-economic conditions
which would have the most signicant impacts generated due to the activities of mining (Table 1);
5. Correlating each impacting factor and each mining environmental component with a weighted value to reect the level of
impact generated by the impacting factor upon the mining environment component (Table 3);
6. The assessor determines, based on the data collected, the specic magnitude for each impacting factor in respect to the
mining environment component, using the pre-dening ranges in Table 2; and
7. Calculate the weighting sum of the environmental impact induced from the impacting factors on each environmental
component.

2.1.2. Weighting the mining environment components

Folchi [29] stated that the impacting factor alters the pre-existing state of a mining environmental component. This can
range from no impact to a severe impact, and is represented by four levels of perturbation: nil, minimum, medium and maximum [29]. As highlighted in Step 5 of the outline of the Folchi method, appropriate weighted values were determined to
reect the level of impact created in Folchi [29]. The sum of all of these levels for each mining environment component
is normalised by ensuring that the sum is equal to 10 Folchi [29]. The level of perturbation of the impacting factors for each
environmental component, and the related numerical weighting factors are shown in Table 3.

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J. Phillips / Applied Mathematical Modelling 37 (2013) 78397854

Table 1
The impacting factors and mining environment categories in the Folchi Method, after Folchi et al. [29].
Impacting factors
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.

Mining environment

Exposition, visibility of the pit

Interference with the above-ground water system
Interference with the underground water system
Increase in vehicular trafc
Atmospheric release of gas and dust
Fly-rock
Noise
Ground vibration
Employment of local workforce

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.

Human health and safety

Social relationship and quality of life
Water quality
Air quality
Use of territory
Flora and fauna
Above-ground
Underground
Landscape
Noise
Economy

Table 2
The magnitude ranges for impacting factors (after [29]).
Impacting factors

Scenario

Magnitude

I. Alternation of areas potential resources

Parks, protected areas

Urban area
Agricultural area, wood
Industrial area
Can be seen from inhabited areas
Can be seen from main roads
Not visible
Interference with lakes and rivers
Interference with non relevant water system
No interference
Water table supercial and permeable grounds
Water table deep and permeable grounds
Water table deep and unpermeable grounds
Increase of 200%Increase of 100%
No interference

810
68
36
13
610
26
12
610
36
13
510
25
12
610
36
13
710
27
12
910
49
14
810
48
14

II. Exposition, visibility of the pit

III. Interference with above ground water

IV. Interference with underground water

V. Increase in vehicular trafc

VI. Atmospheric release of gas and dust

VII. Fly rock

VIII. Noise

IX. Ground vibration

X. Employment of local work force

Free emissions in the atmosphere

Emission around the given reference value
Emission well below the given reference values
No blast design and no clearance procedures
Blast design and no clearance procedures
Blast design and clearance procedures
Peak air overpressure at 1 km distance
<141 db
<131 db
<121 db
Cosmetic damage, above threshold, above threshold
Tolerability threshold
Values under tolerability threshold
Job opportunities
High
Medium
Low

710
37
13
710
36
12

2.1.3. Determining the impact score

The impact score for each environmental component is calculated as follows:
1. Using the magnitude ranges in Table 2, each impacting factor was assessed and its magnitude chosen.
2. The Weighted Magnitude is determined by the following simple formulae: Impacting Factor x Chosen Magnitude = Weighted Magnitude. For example, Impacting Factor Alternation of Areas Potential Resources:
 The Impacting Factor weighting for the Alternation of Areas Potential Resources parameter under the Environmental
Component category Human Health and Safety is 0.80 (re: Table 3);
 The Chosen Magnitude obtained and judged by the assessor (i.e. [28] was 9 (nine) for the Alternation of Areas Potential Resources parameter under the Human Health and Safety category (re: Table 2);
 Therefore, the Weighted Magnitude for Alternation of Areas Potential Resources under the Human Health and Safety
category is: 0.80  9 = 4.8 (Table 4).

Table 3
The correlation matrix of the values of the weighted inuence of each impacting factor for each environmental component (after [29]).
Impacting factors

III. Interference with above ground

water
IV. Interference with underground
water
V. Increase in vehicular trafc
VI. Atmospheric release of gas and
dust
VII. Fly rock
VIII. Noise
IX. Ground vibration
X. Employment of local work force
Total

Social
relationship

Water
quality

Air
quality

Use of
territory

Flora and
fauna

Above
ground

Underground

Landscape

Noise

Economy

Med
0.80
Nil
0
Max
1.60
Min
0.40
Max
1.60
Max
1.60
Max
1.60
Med
0.80
Max
1.60
Nil
0
10

Min
0.77
Min
0.77
Nil
0
Nil
0
Max
3.08
Min
0.77
Nil
0
Max
3.08
Med
1.54
Nil
0
10

Nil
0
Nil
0
Max
4.44
Max
4.44
Nil
0
Min
1.11
Nil
0
Nil
0
Nil
0
Nil
0
10

Nil
0
Nil
0
Nil
0
Nil
0
Nil

Max
5.71
Med
2.86
Nil
0
Nil
0
Min
1.43
Nil
0
Nil
0
Nil
0
Nil
0
Nil
0
10

Min
0.63
Nil
0
Max
2.50
Nil
0
Max
2.50
Max
2.50
Med
1.25
Min
0.63
Nil
0
Nil
0
10

Nil
0
Nil
0
Med
6.67
Nil
0
Nil
0
Min
3.33
Nil
0
Nil
0
Nil
0
Nil
0
10

Nil
0
Nil
0
Nil
0
Med
6.67
Nil
0
Nil
0
Nil
0
Nil
0
Min
3.33
Nil
0
10

Max
2.86
Max
2.86
Max
2.86
Nil
0
Min
0.71
Min
0.71
Nil
0
Nil
0
Nil
0
Nil
0
10

Nil
0
Min
2.00
Nil
0
Nil
0
Nil
0
Nil
0
Nil
0
Max
8.00
Nil
0
Nil
0
10

Nil
0
Nil
0
Nil
0
Nil
0
Nil
0
Nil
0
Nil
0
Nil
0
Nil
0
Max
10.00
10

Max
10.00
Nil
0
Nil
0
Nil
0
Nil
0
10

J. Phillips / Applied Mathematical Modelling 37 (2013) 78397854

I. Alternation of areas potential

resources
II. Exposition, visibility of the pit

Environmental components
Human health and
safety

7843

7844

Impacting factors

I. Alternation of areas potential

resources
II. Exposition, Visibility of the pit
III. Interference with above ground
water
IV. Interference with underground
water
V. Increase in vehicular trafc
VI. Atmospheric release of gas and
dust
VII. Fly rock
VIII. Noise
IX. Ground vibration
X. Employment of local work force
Total

Environmental components
Human health and
safety

Social
relationship

Water
quality

Air
quality

Use of
territory

Flora and
fauna

Above
ground

Underground

Landscape

Noise

Economy

7.2

6.2

51.4

5.7

25.7

0
4.8

3.9
0

0
13.3

0
0

14.3
0

0
7.5

0
20

0
0

14.3
8.6

10
0

0
0

1.6

17.8

26.7

4.8
12.8

9.2
6.2

0
8.9

0
80

4.3
0

7.5
20

0
26.6

0
0

2.1
5.7

0
0

0
0

6.4
0.8
1.6
0
40

0
3.1
1.5
0
30.8

0
0
0
0
40

0
0
0
0
80

0
0
0
0
70

5
0.6
0
0
46.3

0
0
0
0
46.7

0
0
3.3
0
30

0
0
0
0
56.4

0
8
0
0
18

0
0
0
70
70

J. Phillips / Applied Mathematical Modelling 37 (2013) 78397854

Table 4
An example of a table containing the nal determined weighted impact scores using the Folchi method. In this case, the evaluation of the environmental impact of the Mouteh opencast gold mine, from Monjezi et al.
[28]. The assigned model notation for each environmental component is also provided. The results are reproduced with the very kind and gracious permission of Monjezi et al.

J. Phillips / Applied Mathematical Modelling 37 (2013) 78397854

7845

3. Repeating this for all environmental components, a matrix is produced, as illustrated in Table 4.
4. The overall impact for each environmental component was obtained by adding the weighted magnitudes of all the
impacting factors (see: Table 4).
5. The maximum score for each overall impact total for environmental component is 100 - the higher the score, the greater
the overall impact will be.
2.1.4. Potential issues
With any method, there are always some issues which can potentially affect the results obtained. In the case of the Folchi
method, the following could be perceived as potential issues:
1. The use of xed categories (Impacting Factors and Mining Environment) and the weighted levels of perturbation
(Table 3) could be seen as not being responsive to the specics of the operation or the local environment-human system.
However, in Samini Namin et al. [30], the categories and weightings were altered appropriately when assessing the
impacts of various mining methods, and therefore demonstrating the categories and weightings can be changed to meet
specic conditions.
2. The determination of the magnitude of the impacting factors is based on judgment and expertise, according to the criteria
stated in Table 2. This could be viewed as adding a level of subjectivity in the evaluation of magnitude. However, given
that there is a list of dened criteria for determining magnitude scores, this requires the assessor(s) to justify the reasons
for scores awarded based on the data and evidence presented.
3. The Folchi method was specically designed to evaluate mining operations and processes. On the one hand, this is benecial to evaluating mining operations as it makes comparing and contrasting between similar mining operations easier
to undertake, and consequently highlight critical differences between operations or processes in performance and design.
On the other hand, the fact that method is designed specically for mining operations means that it cannot, at the present
time, be used to evaluate other operations and processes. However, this does not preclude the possibility that it can be
adapted to evaluate other operations with suitable modications.
2.2. The mathematical model of sustainability
The mathematical model of sustainability was developed in the PhD project of Phillips et al. [20], and was further enhanced in Phillips [23]. The model denes what sustainability is, the parameters and limitations of the key components,
and the conditions under which sustainability or unsustainability can occur. The model was developed and supported
through utilising and expanding upon ideas and concepts within Earth System Analysis [3133] and the ideas and concepts
contained within weak and strong sustainability theory (e.g. [3437]. The models denition of sustainability, and the conditions necessary for it to occur, were fully described and discussed [2022] However, Table 5 contains a simplied description the mathematical model of sustainability developed by Phillips [20,21] in respect to the relevant equations utilised in
the application methodology described in Section 2.3.
2.3. Applying the model
In the case of the Folchi method, the previous methodologies which applied the model, as highlighted in
[20,21,23,24,26,27], were not entirely appropriate. This was because the Folchi method assesses the level of negative impacts upon the environment, with the sole exception of evaluating the level of positive benets to the economy through improved job opportunities from the project, as highlighted in Tables 2 and 3. In Phillips [25], which used an Environmental
Impact Assessment of abandoned limestone quarries using the Folchi method conducted by Khalaf [38], the following modications were undertaken to apply the model:
(1) In regards to evaluating the obtained value of HNI, this would involve a calculation in the following format:

HNI

bHNI1 HNI2 HNI3max  HNI3 c

P
:
HNImax

This was in comparison to the previous format used in [20,21,23,24,26,27] when applying the model to either the Battelle
Environmental Evaluation System (BEES) [39] or the Rapid Impact Assessment Matrix (RIAM) [40,41]:

P
HNI

P
HNImax  HNI
P
:
HNI max

(2) In the case of determining an obtained value of E, the technique of the inverse score was adopted, which was originally developed for determining HNI in [20,21,23,24,26,27]. This is because the Folchi method adopts a negative
approach to the valuation of the environment the higher the score, the largest the (negative) impact. Therefore,
to determine the available level of E remaining, the calculation of E was conducted using the following basic format:

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J. Phillips / Applied Mathematical Modelling 37 (2013) 78397854

Table 5
A simplied description of the key equations used in the application of the model, based on Phillips et al. [20] and Phillips [21].
Equation
no.

Model equation

Description

(1)

S(t) = E(t)  HNI(t)

(2)

E(t) = (A + B + H + L)

(3)

E(t) = [E0 6 E 6 Emax]

This is the models primary equation which states that sustainability (S), for any specic point in time (t), is
obtained by the determined or attributed value of the Environment (E) minus the determined or attributed
value of Human Needs and Interests (HNI) [20,21]*
The environment (E) is dened as the four integral sub-spheric systems which is necessary for all planetary
operation: Atmosphere (A), Biosphere (B), Hydrosphere (H), and Lithosphere (L) [20,21]These sub-spheres
have an impact or role to play in inuencing the development and character of E [20,21]Furthermore, the subspheres evolve over time to a perceived end result, or continuously adapts due to changes within the system
or due to an event(s) [20,21]
The Environment (E), just like any natural or anthropogenic system, has pre-determined maximum limits for
its safe operation due to the interdependence of the operations within and between the sub-spheres [20,21]E
is therefore dependent upon the space needed or taken for sub-spheric operations; and the time required for
evolution, adaption, mitigation and repair of the system(s) [20,21]
Consequently, any determined or attributed values of E must reect the signicance and magnitude of the
impact/effect (potential or actual) in respect to the present state of the condition of E [20,21]
HNI is dependent upon the resources and services available and produced by E which ensures tolerable
conditions for human to live and survive [20,21]If HNI increased at a rate that is at the increasing detriment of
E, then this infers that there is a maximum limit for HNI based on the resources and services of the E left
available [20,21]. This means as a consequence that when E eventually is degraded beyond a point of no
return at whatever spatial scale, it means humans need to live somewhere else [20,21]Therefore, this infers
that there is a limit to the potential determined or attributed value of HNI obtained for any specic point of
time [20,21]
For a level of S to occur at any point of time and for a specied spatial scale, then the determined or attributed
value of E must be greater than the determined or attributed value of HNI [20,21]
If the determined or attributed value of E is less than or equal to the determined or attributed value of HNI,
then S would not occur and infers unsustainability [20,21]. This is because there must be a continuous source
of E and HNI to utilise, and that it must not endanger the safe operation of E [20,21]

(4)

HNI(t) = [HNI 6 HNI 6 HNI

max]

(5)

E(t) > HNI(t) , S(t) > 0

(6)

E(t) 6 HNI(t) , S(t) 6 0

Determined values of E and/or HNI refer to real-time data collected through experiments, observations or quantitative measures such as indicators or
quantitatively-based Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). Attributed values of E and HNI are data obtained using a value judgment approach, such as in
the case of a qualitative or semi-quantitative EIA [20,21].

P
Emax  E
P
:
Emax

10

This ensures that the correct valuation of the level of the viable and working environment is obtained, in order to calculate
the level and nature of sustainable development (if appropriate).
The full methodology used in applying the model to the Folchi method with these modications, and consequently to the
results obtained by Monjezi et al. [28], is provided in Fig. 2.
2.4. Strengths and weaknesses of model theory and application
Based upon previous work highlighted in [2025] and peer review comments, Phillips [26] discussed the models potential fundamental strengths and weaknesses in respect to the theory and its application. Table 6 summarises the key ndings
and determinations made.
2.5. Potential issues with model application to Folchi method
When applying any model, there are always some considerations required in respect to the potential accuracy and any
errors that may have occurred. This is certainly the case here with the model being applied to the results obtained by Monjezi et al. [28] using the Folchi Method. Therefore, to provide a proper context for the interpretation and understanding of the
results, the following are the potential issues that may arise:
(1) The Folchi Method is a good method in one way as the impacting factors and weightings are xed. This means
that mining operations can be directly compared to one another, and thus make determinations and comparisons
of potential indicated levels and nature of sustainability between mining operations. However, the xed impacting
factors and weightings can also be viewed as a bad thing as site specic issues, e.g. hydrological conditions, geology, proximity of local community etc., may not be taken into account as much as it should be. This means that
potential errors in respect to an under or overvaluing of the importance of a specic impacting factor(s) may
occur. However, as recently demonstrated in Samini Namin et al. [30] in respect to mining methods, the impacting
factors and weightings can be altered as required to properly accommodate the needs and objectives of the
assessment.

J. Phillips / Applied Mathematical Modelling 37 (2013) 78397854

7847

Fig. 2. The owchart process for the application of the mathematical model of sustainable development to the Folchi method (adapted from [20]).

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J. Phillips / Applied Mathematical Modelling 37 (2013) 78397854

Table 6
A summary of the potential strengths and weaknesses of the mathematical model of sustainability in regards to the theory and application, based on Phillips
[26].
Models potential strengths
1. A clear fundamental denition of sustainability, the nature of the
environment and human needs, and consequently the conditions
under which sustainability occur
2. The ability to obtain a single indicative value of sustainability and
corresponding level very weak, weak, strong or very strong for a
specic point in time
3. The ability to apply to a variety of quantitative-based assessments
(e.g. EIA, risk assessment, indicators etc.) to determine whether sustainability or unsustainability is occurring through a consistent
framework
4. The model can accommodate as many individual pieces of data as
deemed appropriate by the user/assessor, and so consequently, properly reect the systems complexity at a specic spatialtemporal
scale
5. The model can be applied to weighted assessment methodology,
such as the Battelle Environmental Evaluation System (BEES) [39]
6. Obtain values and levels of S (if appropriate) over whatever spatial
temporal scale required, e.g. evaluate project in respect to beforeduring-after scenarios
7. The ability to use a repeatable and consistent denition of sustainability, which consequently makes comparisons between similar
projects easier to contrast
8. The models application to impact (or risk) assessments could be of
considerable benet to practitioners and society generally. This is
because of their goals to identify, analyse, predict and mitigate
potential signicant impacts and risks to the environment and
society

Models potential weaknesses

1. The model could viewed as an oversimplication of perceived concepts and complexity of what constitutes sustainability, particularly
in respect to coupled dynamic environment-human relationship
2. The specied value ranges for weak/strong sustainability could be
construed by some as arbitrary
3. The possibility of useful information being lost by the cumulation of
multiple indicators or values into a single indicative value of
sustainability
4. It is possible to ascribe to the view that the model merely is a mathematical conversion from one set of values to another in determining
sustainability
5. Any obtained value of S, within the specied range of 0.0011.000,
could be considered as vague or meaningless because of no unit or
value system, or context
6. The results obtained by the model are sensitive to the original results
of the assessment used in two specic respects: (a) Where there is an
element of subjective or professional judgement used; and/or (b) The
categorisation of environmental and human parameters

(2) As with any scientic or engineering study, the ndings and conclusions are only as good as the data, methods
and personnel used to collect them. In the case of the models application to the Folchi method, it is dependent
on the accuracy of the data and the competence of those who collected and evaluated the mining operations concerned. In respect to the latter point, we nd no reason whatsoever to doubt the competence of those whom conducted the original study, and which was published in a respected peer-review journal. As for the accuracy of the
data, this is a key debate within EIA theory and practice because it is associated with the question of how to
assess the nature, scale and longevity of an impact upon the environment. No EIA method is perfect as all have
their good and bad points. Therefore, the assessor has to choose the most appropriate approach to the situation
concerned. In the case of Monjezi et al. [28] choosing the Folchi method, this was certainly an appropriate method
due to its mining specic focus and its ability to directly compare and contrast other mining operations. However,
whilst the impacting factors and weightings may be xed, there is an element of professional judgment in respect
to the evaluation of the chosen magnitude of the impact (Table 2). Whilst there are specic criteria in respect to
the determination of each chosen magnitude for the impacting factors, it is still dependant on the objectivity of
the assessor to determine an appropriate score based on the collected and available data. Consequently in respect
to the model, the results obtained can be inuenced by an error(s) in the nal weighted magnitude totals due to
poor judgment of the assessor in determining the appropriate chosen magnitude score. In the case of Monjezi
et al. [28], there is no evidence that this or other errors may have occurred. However, we acknowledge the fact
that our own results are dependent on the good conduct and practice of others, and that it is a fair representation
of the situation at the time when the Folchi assessment was conducted.
(3) The results of the model are dependent on the number of categories/parameters being available to calculate the
environmental and human aspects of the mining operation. In the case of the Folchi method, there were eight
environmental parameters and three human parameters. It would be preferable if there were more parameters
which were more specic, as in previous model application to the Rapid Impact Assessment Matrix (re:
[20,23,26,27]) and the Battelle Environmental Evaluation System (re: [20,21,24]). However, this should not detract
from the models potential usefulness as a mechanism for provide an indicatory approach to identify potential
areas of weakness or concern within an mining context for improving the overall sustainability of its operation
through a coupled environment-human approach. Furthermore, it can potentially provide a further mechanism
to continuously monitor, mitigate or improve environmental and anthropogenic factors or impacts, and thus
potentially improve the level of sustainability of the mining operation throughout its operational and post-operational duration.

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J. Phillips / Applied Mathematical Modelling 37 (2013) 78397854

Table 7
The original nal totals from the evaluation of the environmental-human impacts of the two opencast iron ore mines evaluated by Monjezi et al. [28]. The
assigned model notation for each environmental component is also provided. The original results have been reproduced with Monjezi et al.s very kind and
gracious permission.
Environmental components
Human health & Social
safety
relationship
Model Notation
Chogart
Gol-e-Gohar

HNI 1
56.0
55.6

HNI 2
66.2
61.6

Water
quality

Air
Use of
quality territory

Flora and
fauna

Above
ground

Underground Landscape Noise Economy

H1
42.2
50.0

A1
60.0
50.0

B1
54.4
47.6

L2
33.3
36.7

L3
60.0
76.7

L1
65.7
31.4

L4
50.0
30.7

A2
58.0
60.0

HNI 3
80.0
70.0

Table 8
Obtained Values of E, HNI and S (if appropriate) for the four opencast mines, based on and evaluated by Monjezi et al. [28].
Mines

HNI

S-Value

S-Level

Chogart
Gol-e-Gohar

0.471
0.521

0.471
0.622

N/A
N/A

N/A
N/A

3. Calculations and results

3.1. Scene-setting
The model was applied to the results of an EIA of two opencast iron ore mining operations in Iran assessed by Monjezi
et al. [28] using the Folchi method [29]. The mines assessed consisted of case studies of Chogart and Gol-e-Gohar mines.
3.1.1. Chogart mine
Chogart iron ore mine is located 12 km north-east of Bafgh, and 125 km south-east of Yazd in the Yazd province [28]. The
region has signicant deposits of minerals such as iron, manganese, apatite, lead and zinc [28]. The mine was originally designed in 1970 for a mineable ore reserve of 134 Mt [28]. The height of the benches is 12.5 m, and the overall pit slope and
angle of the working benches are at 50 and 69 [28]. Mill plant recovery is 70% and the amount of annual concentrate and
waste production is 3 and 1.3 Mt respectively [28]. Electric power consumption of the mill plant is 40 kwh/tonne of concentrate [28].
3.1.2. Gol-e-Gohar mine
Gol-e-Gohar mine is located approximately 55 km south-west of Sirjan in the Kerman province [28]. The mine operates
with benches height of 15 m, and working slope angles of 50 and 70 [28]. Mill plant recovery is 68% and the capacity of the
mill plant is 5 Mt concentrate per year with 1.35 Mt annual production of tailings [28].
3.2. Original results
The original results from Monjezi et al. [28] are summarised in Table 7. These results form the basis for the application of
the model in the calculation of an indicated level and nature of sustainable development (if appropriate) for the operation of
the two mines.
3.3. Calculations
Based on Table 7 and utilising the methodology described in Fig. 2, the following calculations for determining the indicated level and nature of sustainable development for each mine were undertaken. For each stage of the calculations presented, the corresponding step(s) in respect to Fig. 2 are shown in brackets, so to highlight each part of the methodology
being applied. (See Table 8)

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J. Phillips / Applied Mathematical Modelling 37 (2013) 78397854

(a) Determination of Components of S (Step 2)

(i) Components of E (Step 2b)
A1 = Air Quality
A2 = Noise
B1 = Flora and fauna
H1 = Water Quality
L1 = Use of territory
L2 = Above ground
L3 = Underground
L4 = Landscape
(ii) Components of HNI (Step 2c)
HNI 1 = Human health & safety
HNI 2 = Social relationship
HNI 3 = Economy
(iii) Determination of Maximum Possible Score for E and HNI Components (Step 2d)
Amax = 2  100 = 200
Bmax = 1  100 = 100
Hmax = 1  100 = 100
Lmax = 4  100 = 400
Emax = (200 + 100 + 100 + 400)
HNI max = (100 + 100 + 100)
(b) Evaluate S for Chogart Iron Ore Mine

S E  HNI :
(i) Calculate E (Step 3)
Determine E within range 0 6 E 6 1

Amax 

P
P
P
P
P
P
A Bmax  B Hmax  H Lmax  L
P
P
P
P
;
Amax Bmax Hmax Lmax

P
P
P
Amax  A1 A2 Bmax  B1 Hmax  H1 Lmax  L1 L2 L3 L4 
P
P
P
P
;
Amax Bmax Hmax Lmax

200  60 58 100  54:4 100  42:2 400  65:7 33:3 60 50

;
200 100 100 400

82 45:6 57:8 191

800

376:4
800

E 0:471:
(ii) Calculate HNI (Step 4)
Determine HNI within range 0 6 HNI 6 1 (Step 4a and b)

HNI

HNI1 HNI2 HNI3max  HNI3actual 

P
HNImax

HNI

55 66:2 100  80
;
300

HNI

141:2
300

HNI 0:471:
(iii) Determine if S occurs (Step 5ab)
E = 0.471
HNI = 0.471
Therefore:

J. Phillips / Applied Mathematical Modelling 37 (2013) 78397854

7851

E 6 HNI () S 6 0:
(iv) Findings: (Step 5c)
Result: As the calculated value of E is less than/equal to the calculated value for HNI, this implies that the project
option being evaluated is potentially unsustainable.
(c) Evaluate S for Gol-e-Gohar Iron Ore Mine

S E  HNI :
(i) Calculate E (Step 3)
Determine E within range 0 6 E 6 1

Amax  A1 A2

P
P
P
B
 B1 Hmax  H1 Lmax  L1 L2 L3 L4 
Pmax
P
P
P
;
Amax Bmax Hmax Lmax

200  50 60 100  47:6 100  50 400  31:4 36:7 76:7 30:7

200 100 100 400

E 0:521:
(ii) Calculate HNI (Step 4)
Determine HNI within range 0 6 HNI 6 1 (Steps 4a and b)

HNI

cHNI1 HNI2 HNI3max  HNI3actual b

P
;
HNImax

HNI

55:6 61:6 100  30:7

;
300

HNI 0:622:
(iii) Determine if S occurs (Steps 5a-b)
E = 0.521
HNI = 0.622
Therefore:

E 6 HNI () S 6 0:
(iv) Findings: (Step 5c)
Result: As the calculated value of E is less than/equal to the calculated value for HNI, this implies that the project
option being evaluated is potentially unsustainable.
(d) Evaluation Table of S-Value and S-Level (Steps 89)
4. Discussion of results
4.1. Overview
The results from the application of the model to the original results obtained by Monjezi et al. [28] indicated the
following:
 Chogart mine is indicated to be as potentially unsustainable because the obtained E-value of 0.471 was less than the
obtained HNI-value of 0.471.
 Gol-e-Gohar mine is indicated to be as potentially unsustainable due to the obtained E-value of 0.521 being less than the
obtained a HNI-value of 0.622.
The basis for these results shall now be explored.
Referring to the nal original results highlighted in Table 7, there is evidence as to why the values of E, HNI, and S for the
mining operations were obtained. There are some clear similarities in results between the two mines with respect to Human
health & safety and Noise. However, there are also some signicant differences. Gol-e-Gohar scored much better in regards to
reduced environmental impact than Chogart in the following respects: Air quality; Use of Territory, Landscape and Economy.
By the same token, Chogart scored much better than Gol-e-Gohar in respect to Water quality.
Nevertheless, the remaining scores are within a small percentage of each other, indicating similarities in types of impact
imposed upon the local environment and community.

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J. Phillips / Applied Mathematical Modelling 37 (2013) 78397854

4.2. Chogart mine

Chogart mine has signicant indications of environment and human impacts upon the local area. The largest impacts are
in respect to economy, social relationship and use of territory with obtained scores of 80, 66.2 and 65.7, as noted by Monjezi
et al. [28]. These would indicate signicant changes over time to local community from traditional economic and social activities to activities associated with mining. This may mean that there has been loss of agricultural and/or community land that
is now use in mining. Consequently, this infers the loss of local skills and traditions within the local community. It also suggests the relationship between the mine operators and the local community is quite poor, which not wholly unexpected. This
may also have to do with a decrease in air quality due to the pollution caused by mining, and the loss of ora and fauna.
4.3. Gol-e-Gohar mine
Gol-e-Gohar on the other hand, whilst experiencing similar issues, generally has less impact than Chogart, but not by
much. Social relationship and local economy issues appear to be just as awkward as with Chogart, however to a slightly lesser degree. The loss of land is not a signicant an issue as with Chogart, infers that agriculture and other land-based activities
are not as dominated. Nevertheless, there are some issues of concern. Predominantly, the far higher score for impacts obtained in respect to underground factors. This would indicate, as noted by Monjezi et al. [28], that ground vibration caused
by blasting is a signicant issue. Monjezi et al. [28] suggested reducing the charge to mitigate this impact. However, the causation of signicant ground vibration may be due to one or more of the following factors: poor training and knowledge; poor
or inadequate placement of explosives; types of explosives and fuses used; and types of geology. The other category where
Gol-e-Gohar scored higher than Chogart was on water quality. Water quality in the mining situation is easily affected dependant on the local geology and hydrology of the area. This would be due to by-products of the iron ore body, blasting, and
tailings, which entering rivers and lakes by surface and underground hydrological processes. This would result in a degradation of water quality through colouration, change in pH, and change in oxygen levels. These would all pose threats to
and impacts on aquatic ora and fauna, due to the sensitivity of their physiology and environmental requirements.
What however is clear in the case of both Chogart and Gol-e-Gohar is the level of impacts is still high. The results suggest,
in this particular instance, the delicately balanced nature of mining in its impact upon the local environment and community. It clearly demonstrates the importance of local factors upon the potential sustainability or unsustainability of a mining
operation.
4.4. Potential mitigation and management
The results from the original results of Monjezi et al. [28] and the application of the model indicate the need for vastly
improved environmental management and community relations. This should begin to assist the mines to become more sustainable within the local environment and community. The following are the main immediate areas of improvement which
could be implemented to begin addressing the potential sustainability issues raised:
1. Communication: There needs to be a proper framework for communication between the mine operators and the local
community. Whilst the mining operation does provide valuable economic and employment benets, the environmental
and nuisance impacts do cause considerable disturbance and disruption to the local community. Therefore, the operators
of the mines may wish, for example, to consider a panel comprising of the representatives of the mine and the local community to discuss on a regular basis: potential changes to the operations; issues of concerns raised by the local community; and ways to minimise the nuisance and impacts from operations.
2. Reducing the Visual Impact: There is the need for minimising of the visual impacts of the mining operations, particularly at
the Chogart mine. Planting of trees or other suitable ora is standard procedure to minimise such impacts, as well as providing a mechanism to improve the immediate ecological conditions for displaced ora and fauna, as well as a mechanism
for noise and dust reduction from mining operations.
3. Health & Safety: There are indications of improvements required in health & safety procedures. Whilst no discussion of
such procedures were highlighted by Monjezi et al. [28], the scores obtained for both mines do suggest at least minimum
legal compliance, but no more than that. Health & safety procedures that go beyond the minimum legal requirement has
considerable benets not only to improve the productivity of the workforce, but also improves operational efciency,
minimises potential environment and nuisance hazards, and improve condence by investors or economic institutions.
These are all points raised in the MMSD report [2] concerning sustainable development in the mining industry. Thus, having a strong health & safety approach can, in conjunction with appropriate environmental management and mitigation,
begin to improve and address the social and economic dimensions of sustainable development within a mining context.
4. Air Quality: There needs to be improvements in the air quality. This, in the case of a mining operation, can be due to in
essence dust, atmospheric emissions, and/or odour. Dust can be a considerable hazard to ecology and the local community which can block plant stomata which prevent normal respiration leading to death of the plant; or dust from
quartz-based minerals/rocks inhaled by humans can lead to silicosis which is potentially fatal. Atmospheric emissions
result from the operation of extraction and processing facilities and vehicles, and consequently producing a range of
hydrocarbon, sulphur-based, nitrogen-based, and other carbon-based emissions which contribute to local pollution

J. Phillips / Applied Mathematical Modelling 37 (2013) 78397854

7853

and the greenhouse effect,. Odour can result from sulphur-based emissions from processes that give the impression of
rotten eggs being smelt or other emissions which cause a considerable nuisance to the local community, such as excessive vehicle exhaust due to trucks moving in and out of the mine.
5. Environmental Management Plan: There is no indication in Monjezi et al. [28] of what steps the mines undertaken towards
environmental management and monitoring. Therefore, assuming there is no environmental management or the current
procedures are insufcient, a signicant environmental management plan is required to minimise the impacts to the local
environment and community. Furthermore, such a plan should provide a mechanism to improve the overall efciency of
the mines and minimise further the risks to the health & safety of the workforce and the local community from potential
hazards. As a result, this could and should provide the appropriate improvements in the environmental aspects of the
mines operations to consequently improve their potential sustainability. Any such plan should immediately address
the issues concerning air quality, underground impacts, noise, and ora and fauna, with the remaining environment
issues to be addressed at the next stage. In addition, such a plan must have: clear thresholds for environmental quality;
regular monitoring procedures to detect any changes; and mitigation procedures for continuously improving the environmental quality of the mine overall, as well as for emergency situations such as a major pollution incident. The plan should
also contain clear procedures as to the process of rehabilitation of the mine and the local environment after the cessation
of mining operations, which will assist the improvement of the sustainability of the local environment-human system.
5. Conclusion
The paper has demonstrated the application of a mathematical model of sustainable development [2023] to the EIA of
two opencast iron ore mines in Iran using the Folchi method as conducted by Monjezi et al. [28]. The results indicated that
the Chogart and Gol-e-Gohar iron ore mines were deemed as unsustainable. The application of the model to the Folchi method of EIA is of signicance to the mining industry. It provides another mechanism to begin towards the path of sustainable
mining through evaluation of impacts, and then develop and evaluate potential strategies and alternatives in order to improve mining operations. Further, the model and its application is recognition of the coupled nature of the world we all live
in, whereby a human action or activity can impact on upon the local environment and community, and may impact further
up the spatial scale of the Earth System.
Therefore in summary, the model and application provides for the conceptual and practical implementation of sustainable development within the scope of the project under consideration. It further offers assistance towards evaluating potential solutions towards successful sustainable practices, which in turn ensures the development of a co-evolutionary
relationship between the environment and humans. This is the essence and crux of sustainable mining.
Acknowledgment
I would like to sincerely thank Dr Patrick Foster of the Camborne School of Mines, University of Exeter for his comments
and suggestions in respect to the paper.
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