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HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

June 21, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

VIEW POINT

MAJOR CURRENCY
Close
USDINR
DXY INDX
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
DG USDINR

67.319
93.536
1.133
1.467
104.020
67.700

Prev.
Close
67.085
94.206
1.128
1.436
104.16
67.168

Chg.
0.234
-0.670
0.005
0.031
-0.140
0.532

% Chg.
0.35%
-0.71%
0.48%
2.14%
-0.13%
0.79%

Prev.
Close

Close
8242.0
8238.5
26866.9
20579.1
16046.6
2900.2
2083.3
17804.9
4837.2
6204.0
4340.8
9962.0

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY
Segment

The rupee pared its initial losses, but was still closed down by
0.35% at 67.32 against the US currency, having hit 67.69 to the
dollar earlier in the session, its weakest level since May 24, after
RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan said no to a second term in the post.
Meanwhile, Indias 10-year bond yield closed lower for the fifth
consecutive session at 7.496%, compared with Fridays close of
7.502%.
The loss was recouped on talk of central bank sold dollar through
public sector bank to stem the currencys fall and volatility.

GLOBAL INDICES

SGX NIFTY
NIFTY
SENSEX
HANG-SENG
NIKKEI
SHANGHAI
S&P INDEX
DOW JONES
NASDAQ
FTSE
CAC
DAX

Rupee May Remain Under Pressure On Foreign Fund Outflow

8242.5
8170.2
26625.9
20510.2
15965.3
2888.8
2071.2
17675.2
4800.3
6021.1
4193.8
9631.4

Chg.
-1
68
241
69
81
11
12
130
37
183
147
331

% Chg.
-0.01%
0.84%
0.91%
0.34%
0.51%
0.39%
0.58%
0.73%
0.77%
3.04%
3.50%
3.43%

(Provisional Rs. In Cr)

17-Jun-16

16-Jun-16

Jun 16

EQUITY

-104.59

-78.33

4174.45

DEBT

144.44

203.44

-2168.67

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

The home currency may start weaker today on dollar demand from
importers and foreign fund outflow. FII sold worth Rs. 2107 Cr. in
derivative and Rs. 385.60 Cr. in domestic equity market on 20th
June, as per the exchange provisional figures. The one month
forward USDINR last quoted at 67.47 up from yesterdays 67.35 at
5pm. In near term, USDINR June future is having resistance at
67.865 and support at 66.72.
On overseas market, the dollar fell against a basket of major
currencies, dropped to 93.449, its lowest in more than two weeks.
It was last down 0.6% at 93.654.
Meanwhile, investors also prepared for Federal Reserve Chairwoman
Janet Yellens semiannual monetary policy report to Congress, which
begins today. Investors will look for hints on the Feds future plans
for interest-rate increases in Ms. Yellens comments.
Pound Jumps most since 2008 as "Remain" Recollects Lead in
Polls
The pound posted its biggest one-day rise for almost eight as
traders reacted to an apparent shift in support towards a remain
vote in Thursdays EU referendum. The currency rose more than 2%
against both the US dollar and the euro. Sterling rose to a global
session high of $1.4707, nearly a three-seek peak, as it extended a
recovery from Thursday's more than two-month trough of $1.4013.
Last it up 2.3% at $1.4688, its largest one-day rise since Dec.
15, 2008.

The rallies came as Betfair, the online gambling site, said the implied probability of the UK remaining in the EU had risen to about
78%, up from 60 to 67% on Friday. A one-week gauge of implied volatility for the pound versus the dollar dropped to 39.5 percent
from a record close of 47.87 percent in the previous session.
The sharp move in the pound against the dollar also reflected receding expectations of a near-term interest rate rise from the US
central bank, especially following remarks from a key policymaker last week.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
USDINR June Future Daily Chart

Manages to Close Above Short Term Moving Average

The pair resumes higher top bottoms on daily chart.

Strong support for the pair is seen at 66.72, which happened to be the previous bottom while previous top 67.8650 act as
resistance in near term.

Oscillators are indicating consolidation for the short term.

Near term bias for the pair remains upward with higher side expectation of 67.865.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS
JUNE Month

Last

Exp. Open*

Trend Bias for Today

Range

S2

S1

R1

R2

USDINR

67.40

67.50

Bullish

67.65-67.30

67.08

67.24

67.67

67.94

75.23

75.83

77.06

77.69

EURINR

76.43

76.55

Bullish

76.85-76.25

GBPINR

98.67

98.99

Bullish

99.10-98.50

97.85

98.26

99.03

99.38

JPYINR

64.43

64.80

Bullish

65.10-66.50

64.04

64.23

64.71

64.99

Spot

Wkly
High

Wkly
Low

1-Mth.
High

1-Mth.
Low

52 Wk
High

52 Wk
Low

5 DMA

20 DMA

50 DMA

100 DMA

200 DMA

USDINR

67.34

66.98

67.76

66.54

68.79

63.31

67.22

67.14

66.85

67.22

66.66

EURINR

75.97

75.09

76.92

74.54

77.49

68.74

75.60

75.44

75.58

75.22

74.07

GBPINR

96.11

94.69

99.21

94.69

105.28

93.34

95.98

97.09

96.61

96.31

97.92

JPYINR

64.91

62.82

64.91

60.30

64.91

51.06

64.01

62.33

61.67

60.62

57.80

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open

High

Low

Close

Chg.

Open
Interest

Chg.

Volume

Chg.

SPOT USDINR

67.69

67.69

67.29

67.32

0.23

--

--

--

--

USDINR JUNE FUT.

67.71

67.79

67.36

67.40

0.22

1808346

263635

2541526

1544984

SPOT EURINR

76.55

76.92

76.21

76.27

0.74

--

--

--

--

EURINR JUNE FUT.

75.86

77.09

75.86

76.43

0.73

41943

3363

114415

61485

SPOT GBPINR

97.86

98.94

97.86

98.53

2.71

--

--

--

--

GBPINR JUNE FUT.

98.41

98.97

98.21

98.67

2.71

31646

-11044

215903

60952

SPOT JPYINR

64.13

64.72

64.09

64.51

0.18

--

--

--

--

JPYINR JUNE FUT.

64.58

64.79

64.32

64.43

0.01

52722

214

40865

1951

Currency

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

USDINR JUNE MONTH OPTION DISTRIBUTION


CALL
OI Chg.

363

400

206

10

22

110

137
13
2

50

34

35
47

60

100

72

150

0
66.00

66.50

67.00

67.50
CALL

68.00

68.50

Volume

69.00

IV

PUT

Strike
Price

LTP

LTP

IV

-44920

73977

4.23

0.915

66.50

0.02

436

2194

5.86

0.7

66.75

0.055

30756 122124

6.64

0.52

67.00

-4034

25283

7.00

0.3675

67.25

16403 223103

Volume OI Chg.

6.31 249760
6.68

-38247

75664

24330

0.1325

7.42 206054

-1972

0.2275

7.62

49909

-1465

8.05 132976

15123

7.63

0.2625

67.50

0.365

37442

8.17

0.185

67.75

0.5325

8.50

5373

642

10438 210088

8.37

0.12

68.00

0.72

8.85

46074

-25058

0.93

9.34

305

1.17 10.61

5578

156

200

15

250

215

300

227

268

286
264

350

154

Thousands

USDINR OI DISTRIBUTION

3021

12883

8.13

0.065

68.25

-19097

83976

9.33

0.0575

68.50

665

283

516

3751

9.79

0.04

68.75

1.3675

9.39

-3510

37895

9.29

0.0175

69.00

1.6375 12.01

25

-3

TOTAL OI

1535200

1351501

OI PUT CALL RATIO : 0.88

PUT

ECO. DATA TODAY

ECO. DATA RELEASED


Actual

Prior

9.4b

6.6b 06/20/2016 05:20

JN

Trade Balance

May

70.0b

-40.7b

823.2b

Jun

--

16.8 06/20/2016 14:30

EC

Construction Output YoY

Apr

--

-0.40%

0.50%

Jun

-10

Date Time

Country

Event

Period

06/21/2016 14:00

UK

Public Sector Net Borrow

May

06/21/2016 14:30

EC

ZEW Survey Expectation

06/21/2016 15:30

UK

CBI Trends Total Orders

Survey

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

Date Time

Prior

-8

Country

Event

Period

Survey

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com
Disclosure:
I/We, Dilip Parmar and Vinay Rajani, MBA, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my views about the subject issuer (s) or securities. I also certify that no part of our
compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in his report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject instrument at the end of
the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report.
Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.
Any position in Instruments NO
Disclaimer:
This report has been prepared by HDFC Securities Ltd and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at, based upon information
obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or
correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document is for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not
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If this report is inadvertently send or has reached any individual in such country, especially, USA, the same may be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or
published for any purposes without prior written approval of HDFC Securities Ltd.
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securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency risk.
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report, including but not restricted to, fluctuation in the prices of shares and bonds, changes in the currency rates, diminution in the NAVs, reduction in the dividend or income, etc.
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HDFC Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing
or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction in the normal course of business.
HDFC Securities or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither HDFC
Securities nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or
brokerage service transactions. HDFC Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.
Research entity has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. Research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. We have not received any
compensation/benefits from the Subject Company or third party in connection with the Research Report.
This report has been prepared by the PCG team of HDFC Securities Ltd. The views, opinions, estimates, ratings, target price, entry prices and/or other parameters mentioned in this document may or may not match or may
be contrary with those of the other Research teams (Institutional, Retail) of HDFC Securities Ltd.
"HDFC Securities Ltd. is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

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